Pantheon Macroeconomics - Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

Search Results: 470
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

Sorry, but our website is best viewed on a device with a screen width greater than 320px. You can contact us at: info@pantheonmacro.com.

Website Search

Search Results

470 matches for " exports":

11 July. 2016 Net Exports Boosted German GDP Growth in Q2, as Imports Fell (Publication Centre)

The German trade data on Friday completed a poor week for economic reports in the Eurozone's largest economy. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus fell to €22.1B in May, from €24.1B in April, mainly due to a 1.8% month-to-month fall in exports. Imports, on the other hand, were little changed.

29 September. 2016 Rocketing Soybean Exports Set to Hold Down August Trade Deficit (Publication Centre)

Today is all about beans. Specifically, soybeans, and more specifically, just how many of them were exported in August. This really matters, because if soybean exports in August and September remained close to their hugely elevated July level, the surge in exports relative to the second quarter will contribute about one percentage point to headline GDP growth.

10 Mar. 2015 Don't Panic Over Fall in German Exports, Trend is Still Firm (Publication Centre)

The 12-month average German trade surplus continues to set records, rising to €18.2B in January, but exports started the quarter on a weak note, falling 2.1% month-to-month in January, equivalent to a mere 1.9% rise year-over-year.

10 February 2017 Dip in German Exports Won't Ruin the Rebound in Q4 as a Whole (Publication Centre)

German exporters stumbled at the end of last year. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus in Germany dipped to €18.4B in December, from €21.8B in November, hit by a 3.3% month-to-month plunge in exports. Imports were flat on the month. The fall in exports looks dramatic, but it followed a 3.9% jump in the previous month, and nominal exports were up 2.5% over Q4 as a whole. Advance GDP data next week likely will show that net trade lifted quarter-on-quarter growth by 0.2 percentage points, partly reversing the 0.3pp drag in Q3. Real imports were held back by a jump in the import price deflator, due to rebounding oil prices.

10 Feb. 2015 German exports are strong, but too dependent on the U.S. and the U.K. (Publication Centre)

External demand for the Eurozone's largest economy is going from strength to strength. Seasonally adjusted German exports rose 3.4% month-to-month in December, equivalent to a solid 7.5% increase year-over-year.The revised indices show that the annualised surplus rose to an all-time high of €218B, or 7% of GDP, last year, indicating that the level of external savings remains a solid support for the economy.

12 July 2018 Brexit Risk is Starting to Take a Heavy Toll on Exports (Publication Centre)

Hopes that GDP growth might be boosted soon by a pick-up in net exports continue to be undermined by the latest data.

27 October 2017 Korean GDP Rebounds on Exports and Mr. Moon's Fiscal Spending (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth rebounded to 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.6% in Q2. The main driver was exports, with government consumption also popping, and private consumption was a little faster than we were expecting.

22 June 2017 Asian Exports Remain Sturdy in Q2, but the Outlook is Cloudy (Publication Centre)

Korea's preliminary export numbers rebounded quite spectacularly in June, with growth at 24.4% year-on-year, compared with just 3.4% in May. This reading is important as it comes early in the monthly data cycle. Korea's position close to the beginning of the global supply chain, moreover, means its exports often lead shifts in global trade.

22 November. 2016 Soybean Exports Still High, but Falling Sharply (Publication Centre)

Surging soybean exports contributed 0.9 percentage points, gross, to third quarter GDP growth, though the BEA said that this was "mostly" offset by falling inventories of wholesale non-durable goods.

17 January 2017 Will Brexit and Mr. Trump Dent EZ Exports to the U.S. and the U.K? (Publication Centre)

Net exports in the euro area likely rebounded in Q4. The headline EZ trade surplus rose to €22.7B in November from €19.7B in October. Exports jumped 3.3% month-to-month, primarily as a result of strong data in Germany and France, offsetting a 1.8% rise in imports. Over Q4 as a whole, we are confident that net exports gave a slight boost to eurozone GDP growth, adding 0.1 percentage points to quarter-on-quarter growth.

26 October. 2016 Soybean Exports Set to Hold Down the Trade Deficit, Again (Publication Centre)

Today's September international trade report will be the third to be distorted by hugely elevated soybean exports. The surge began in July, when soybean exports jumped by $3.6B--that's a 220% month-to-month increase--to $5.2B.

10 Dec. 2015 Oil Prices to Play Tricks with German Net Exports Again in Q4? (Publication Centre)

German exports had a sluggish start to the fourth quarter, falling 1.2% month-to-month in October. The monthly drop pushed the year-over-year rate down to 3.0% from 4.2% in September, well down from the 5.6% third quarter average and extending the loss of momentum in recent months. Imports fell 3.6%, so net exports rose, but it's too early to make any useful estimates of net trade in the fourth quarter as a whole.

11 December 2018 Probably No Help From Net Exports for German GDP in Q4 (Publication Centre)

German net exports were treading water at the start of the fourth quarter. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus slipped to €17.4B in October, from a revised €17.7B in September, constrained by a 1.3% month-to-month rise in imports, which offset a 0.7% increase in exports.

08 Jan. 2016 Sterling, Not EM Weakness, Will Hold Exports Back (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor argued in a speech on Thursday that the U.K.'s economic recovery is threatened by a "dangerous cocktail" of overseas risks, including slowing growth in the BRICs--Brazil, Russia, India, and China--and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Exports are set to struggle this year, but the strong pound, not weakness in emerging markets, will be the main drag.

17 August 2018 Net Exports in the EZ Probably Will be a Drag on Growth in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's trade surplus remained subdued at the end of the second quarter; it dipped to €16.7B in June from €16.9B in May.

25 August. 2016 Surging Net Exports Prevented a Q2 GDP Contraction in Germany (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final Q2 GDP report in Germany confirmed the initial data showing that the economy slowed less than we expected last quarter. Real GDP rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, after a 0.7% jump in Q1. The working-day adjusted year-over-year rate fell marginally to 1.8%, from 1.9% in Q1.

4 December 2018 China and U.S. Agree a Truce Exports Still Face Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Following the much-anticipated meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump over the weekend, the U.S. will now leave existing tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods at 10%, rather than increasing the rate to 25% in January, as previously slated.

5 Apr. 2016 Is the Dip in the Dollar Already Lifting Demand for U.S. Exports? (Publication Centre)

The advance trade data for February make it very likely that today's full report will show the headline deficit rose by about $½B compared to March, thanks to rising net imports of both capital and consumer goods, which were only partly offset by improvements in the oil and auto accounts.

9 June. 2015 A flying start to Q2 for German Industrial sector and exports (Publication Centre)

Economic reports released yesterday indicate that the German economy was off to a solid start early in the second quarter. Industrial production rose 0.9% month-to-month in April, equivalent to a 1.4% increase year-over-year, up from a revised tiny 0.2% gain in March. This is the biggest annual jump in production since July last year, but the underlying trend is turning up only slowly, in line with the moderate improvement in survey data this year.

8 Apr. 2016 Net Exports Likely Weighed on French GDP Growth Again in Q1 (Publication Centre)

External demand in France probably weakened in the first quarter. The trade deficit widened sharply to €5.2B in February, from a revised €3.9B in January, pushing the current account deficit to an 18-month high. It is tempting to blame the stronger euro, but that wasn't the whole story.

5 December 2018 China and U.S. Agree a Truce Exports Still Face Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Data last Friday showed Japan's labour market trends deteriorating.

2 November 2018 Ignore the October Surge in Korean Exports, but Take Heed of Imports (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade data have been extremely volatile over the past two months, thanks to distortions caused by last year's odd holiday calendar.

26 January 2018 Korean Exports hit a Perfect Storm in Q4 but Should Rebound in H1 (Publication Centre)

Korean GDP unexpectedly declined in Q4, for the first time since the financial crisis, falling 0.2% quarter-on-quarter after a 1.5% jump in Q3.

10 Dec. 2014 German Exports are Holding Up, But Greek Election Risks Loom (Publication Centre)

The German manufacturing sector is showing signs of stabilisation with industrial production rising 0.2% month-on-month in October, equivalent to 0.8% year-over- year. This is consistent with a decent retracement in production this quarter, but growth is still only barely above zero.

11 October. 2016 German Exports Came Roaring Back in August, After a Weak July (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German trade data showed that the external surplus recovered in August, following its poor start to Q3. The seasonally-adjusted trade surplus rose to €22.2B, from €19.4B in July.

17 May. 2016 The EZ Trade Surplus is Stalling, but Net Exports will Lift Q2 GDP (Publication Centre)

Data today likely will show that the seasonally adjusted trade surplus in the Eurozone jumped to €23.0B in March, from €20.2B in February. The headline was boosted, though, by sharp month-to-month falls in German and French imports, partly due to the early Easter.

25 Mar. 2015 LatAm Central Banks Will Exploit Market's View on Fed's Stance (Publication Centre)

The Colombian economy--the star of the previous economic cycle in LatAm--is now slowing significantly, due mostly to strong external headwinds. Exports plunged by 40% year-over-year in January, down from -29% in December, with all of the main categories contracting in the worst performance since 1980.

25 May. 2016 German Domestic Demand Growth to Slow in Q2, After a Solid Q1 (Publication Centre)

Detailed GDP data yesterday showed that the domestic German economy fired on all cylinders in the first quarter. Real GDP rose 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, up from 0.3% in Q4, lifted by strong investment and spending. Domestic demand rose 0.8%, only slightly slower than the 0.9% ris e in the fourth quarter. Net exports fell 0.3%, a bit better than in Q4, when gross exports fell outright.

24 November 2017 Slowdown in German Domestic Demand Will Reverse in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed GDP report in Germany showed net exports propelled GDP growth to a cyclical high last quarter.

23 January 2018 China's Demand for Foreign Goods Slows as Output Curbs Loosened? (Publication Centre)

Korean 20-day exports are volatile and often miss the mark with respect to the full-month print. But these data offer the month's first look at Asian trade, and we often find value in these early signs.

21 Oct. 2015 Eurozone Now Runs a Bigger Current Account Surplus Than Japan and China (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus remains solid, despite hitting a wall in August. The seasonally adjusted current account surplus fell to €17.7B in August from €25.6B in July, due to a €7B fall in the goods component. A 5.2% month-to-month collapse in German exports -- the biggest fall since 2009 -- was the key driver, but we expect a rebound next month. The 12-month trend in the Eurozone's external surplus continues to edge higher, rising to 3% of GDP up from 2.1% in August last year.

21 September 2017 Japanese GDP Supported by U.S. in Q3. Domestic Demand Weakening (Publication Centre)

Exports rebounded sharply in Q3 so far, after the Q2 weakness. This will be a useful boost to GDP growth in Q3, as domestic demand likely will soften.

25 May. 2016 Trade Deficit Set for April Rebound, but the Future Looks Brighter (Publication Centre)

A widening core trade deficit is the inevitable consequence of a strengthening currency and faster growth than most of your trading partners. Falling oil prices have limited the headline damage by driving down net oil imports, but the downward trend in core exports since late 2014 has been steep and sustained, as our first chart shows. The deterioration meant that trade subtracted an average of 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in the past three quarters.

23 May 2017 Has the Outlook for Business Investment Brightened? (Publication Centre)

The recent deceleration in households' real spending means that either business investment or net exports will have to pickup if the economy is to avoid a severe slowdown this year.

9 Oct. 2015 Drag from Net Trade will be Key Story in German Q3 GDP Data (Publication Centre)

Trade data yesterday added to the downbeat impression of the German economy, following poor manufacturing data earlier in the week. Exports plunged 5.2% month-to-month in August--the second biggest monthly fall ever--pushing the year-over-year rate down to 4.4%, from a revised 6.3% in July. Surging growth in the past six months, and base effects pointed to a big fall in August, but we didn't expect a collapse.

28 June 2017 Mexico's Trade Balance Stalled in May, but Trend Remains Positive (Publication Centre)

The upturn in Mexico's trade balance in recent months stalled in May, but the underlying trend is still improving. Data yesterday showed that the seasonally adjusted deficit rose to USD700M in May, after a USD15M gap in April. Imports rose 2.9% month-to-month, offsetting a mere 0.7% increase in exports.

28 October. 2016 Upside Risk for Third Quarter Growth,Watch Inventories (Publication Centre)

Two entirely separate factors point to significant upside risk to the first estimate of third quarter GDP growth, due today. First, we think it likely that farm inventories will not fall far enough to offset the unprecedented surge in exports of soybeans, which will add some 0.9 percentage points to headline GDP growth.

31 October. 2016 Q3 Growth Likely Wasn't 2.9%, Headwinds in Q4 (Publication Centre)

We are struggling to make sense of the third quarter GDP numbers. The reality is that the massive surge in soybean exports--which we estimate contributed 0.9 percentage points, gross, to GDP growth--mostly came from falling inventory, because the soybean harvest mostly takes place in Q4.

20 Nov. 2015 EZ Current Account Surplus Goes from Strength to Strength (Publication Centre)

The current account surplus in the Eurozone is well on its way to stabilising above 3% of GDP this year. The seasonally adjusted surplus rose to €29.4B in September from a revised €18.7B in August, lifted by a higher trade surplus, thanks to rebounding German exports. The services balance was unchanged at €4.5B in September, while the primary income balance edged higher to €4.8B from €4.0B. The improving external balance has been driven mostly by a surging trade surplus with the U.S. and the U.K., as our first chart shows.

7 July. 2015 May Trade Data Today are Critical to Q2 GDP Growth Estimates (Publication Centre)

Markets often pay little attention to the monthly foreign trade numbers, but today's May data are important because they could easily make a big difference to expectations for second quarter GDP growth. The key question is the extent to which exports have recovered since the port dispute on the West Coast, which severely distorted trade flows in the early part of the year.

28 July 2017 Korean GDP and Chinese Pro ts Con rm China is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth slumped in Q2 to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, from 1.1% in Q1, as both the main drivers--construction and exports--ran out of steam simultaneously. Construction investment grew by 1.0%, sharply slower than the 6.8% in Q1 and contributing just 0.2% to GDP growth in Q2, a turnaround from the 1.1 percentage point contribution in the first quarter.

27 January 2017 Will Mr. Trump Single out Germany for its Large Trade Surplus? (Publication Centre)

The uncertainty over the new U.S. administration's economic policies new is clouding the outlook for the Eurozone economy. The combination of loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy in the U.S. should be positive for the euro area economy, in theory. It points to accelerating U.S. growth--at least in the near term--wider interest rate differentials and a stronger dollar. In a " traditional" global macroeconomic model, this policy mix would lead to a wider U.S. trade deficit, boosting Eurozone exports.

27 March 2017 Stronger Global Growth set to Boost U.S. Export Performance (Publication Centre)

It has been difficult to be an optimist about U.S. international trade performance in recent years. The year-over-year growth rate of real exports of goods and services hasn't breached 2% in a single quarter for two years.

7 September. 2016 Q2 GDP Data Add to the Evidence of a Peak in the EZ Business Cycle (Publication Centre)

A plunge in imports saved the EZ economy from a contraction in second quarter GDP. Yesterday's final data showed that real GDP growth rose 0.3% quarter- on-quarter, slowing from a 0.5% jump in Q1. A 0.4 percentage points boost from net exports was the key driving force.

3 June. 2016 Brazil's Recession Eased in Q1, But a Payback is Looming for Q2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession eased considerably in the first quarter, due mainly to a slowing decline in gross fixed capital formation, a strong contribution from net exports, and a sharp, albeit temporary, rebound in government spending. Real GDP fell 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, much less bad than the revised 1.3% contraction in Q4.

24 July 2017 Asian Trade Dragged Down by Chinese Slump (Publication Centre)

Korean exports are often a useful gauge of Asian and global trade; the country sits near the beginning of the global supply chain. It also happens to publish early in the data cycle and provides a measure of exports in the first 20 days of the month.

11 July 2017 Strong Import Growth is Starting to Weigh on German Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

The German trade surplus increased slightly in May, following weakness in the beginning of spring. The seasonally adjusted surplus rose to €20.3B in May, from €19.7B in April; it was lifted by a 1.4% month-to-month jump in exports, which offset a 1.2% rise imports.

10 Nov. 2015 Trade Data Confirm Our Worst Fears for German Q3 GDP (Publication Centre)

German trade data yesterday added further evidence that net exports likely will wreak havoc with the Q3 GDP report this week. Exports rose 2.6% month-to-month in September, partially rebounding from a 5.2% plunge in August. But imports jumped 3.6%, further adding to the net trade drag on a quarterly basis. Our first chart shows our estimate of real net trade in Q3 as the worst since the collapse in 2008-to-09.

11 September 2017 China's Trade Surplus Edges Lower with net Trade Contributing Little (Publication Centre)

Chinese exports grew by just 5.5% in dollar terms year-over-year in August, down from 7.2% in July. Export growth continues to trend down, with a rise of just 0.2% in RMB terms in the three months to August compared to the previous three months, significantly slower than the 4.8% jump at the p eak in January.

12 July. 2016 Brazil and Argentina are Both Hurting, but Healing has Begun (Publication Centre)

Brazil and Argentina, South America's biggest economies are going through a metamorphosis. Brazil is emerging from its recession and a modest recovery is on the horizon. Exports have rebounded, thanks to the lagged effect of the BRL's sharp sell-off last year, and confidence has improved significantly in recent months. The likelihood that interim President Michel Temer will stay on as head of Brazil's government has also helped to boost sentiment.

16 January 2018 The Eurozone's Trade Surplus Will Fall in the First Half of 2018 (Publication Centre)

The euro area's external surplus remained resilient toward the end of 2017, in the face of a stronger currency. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose to €22.5B in November, from €19.0B in October, lifted primarily by a jump in German exports.

13 February 2017 Too Soon to Conclude the Economy is Finally Rebalancing (Publication Centre)

Data on industrial production and trade released last week have fanned hopes that the U.K.'s growth model is moving away from its excessive reliance on household spending, and towards production and exports. But a close look at the underlying drivers of the strong headline figures suggests that it is too soon to hope that the economy is undergoing a major rebalancing.

10 June. 2016 Falling Real Imports Will Lift German Net Trade in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Germany's external balance was virtually stable at the beginning of the second quarter. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose marginally to €23.9B in April from a revised €23.7B in March, mainly due to weakness in imports. Demand for goods abroad fell 0.2% month-to-month, which pushed up the surplus despite amid unchanged exports. Imports fell 1.5% year-over-year in April, up slightly from a 2.5% decline in March.

10 February 2017 Still no Sign of a Sustained Trade Boost From Sterling's Depreciation (Publication Centre)

Today's trade figures likely will continue to show that the benefits from sterling's depreciation are being outweighed by the costs. Exports still are barely growing, but consumers are about to endure a substantial import price shock. The monthly trade deficit has been extremely volatile over the last year, generating a series of excessively upbeat or gloomy headlines. The truth is that the deficit has been on a slightly deteriorating trend, as our first chart shows. We think the trade deficit likely narrowed to £3.8B in December, from £4.2B in November, bringing it closer to its rolling 12-month average of £3.0B.

06 May. 2015 Latest Data Enhances Divergent Activity Trends in LatAm (Publication Centre)

Mexican manufacturing sector kicked off the year on a soft note, due mainly to the sharp drop in oil prices, and the sharp weather-induced slowdown in the U.S. Mexico's northern neighbor is its largest trading partner, by far, accounting for about 85% of total exports last year and close to 80% of total non-oil exports.

05 October. 2016 GDP Inventories Set to be Adjusted to O set Soybean Export Surge (Publication Centre)

We have written a good deal recently about the likely impact of the sudden explosion of U.S. soybean exports on third quarter GDP growth.

07 August. 2015 EZ GDP likely rose 0.4% quarteron- quarter in Q2 due to Ne t Trade (Publication Centre)

This is the final report before your Eurozone correspondent dials down for the summer, and heads for the beach. Advance Q2 GDP data next week is the key release while we are away, with the latest Bloomberg consensus--published July 20th--looking for a 0.4% increase quarter-on-quarter. Everything we look at suggests the consensus is right on this one, with risks tilted to the upside due to strong net exports in Germany.

09 Mar. 2016 Key Andean Economies Struggling Against External Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in Colombia and--especially-- Chile, braked in the fourth quarter and at the start of this year as the strong USD drove up imported good prices and tepid global demand weighed on exports. Colombia's January exports plunged 36.6% year-over-year, even worse than the 35% average drop in Q4.

1 December 2017 Will the Improvement in Brazil's External Accounts Continue? (Publication Centre)

External conditions continue to favour Brazil. The recovery in domestic demand in the world's major economies, particularly the rebound in business investment, has driven a gradual revival of global exports.

16 November 2017 Japanese Domestic Demand Disappoints, but will Rebound (Publication Centre)

Japanese GDP growth in the third quarter corrected the imbalances of the second. Domestic demand took a breather after unsustainable growth in Q2, while net exports rebounded.

11 Apr. 2016 Slowing German Export Growth Adds to Manufacturing Woes (Publication Centre)

The first quarter probably saw continued weakness in German net trade, despite the modest February rebound in gross exports. The seasonally-adjusted trade surplus rose to €19.7B from €18.7B in January, lifted by a 1.3% month-to-month rise in exports, which offset a 0.4% increase in imports.

20 Jan. 2016 Venezuela Is Collapsing - LatAm's Star--Colombia--Is Merely Slowing (Publication Centre)

Commodity prices have started the year under further downward pressure. This is yet more negative news for LatAm, as most of the countries have failed to diversify, instead relying on oil or copper for a large share of exports and, critically, tax revenue. Venezuela is the biggest loser in the region from the oil hit, and, together with the worsening political and economic crisis, it has pushed the country even closer to the verge of collapse, threatening its debt payments. Venezuela's central bank last week released economic data for the first time since 2014, showing that inflation spiralled to 141% and that the economy shrank 4.5% in the first nine months of last year.

18 Dec. 2015 Sterling Still a Major Constraint on Growth, Despite Its Recent Decline (Publication Centre)

The growing perception that the U.K. MPC will lag further behind the U.S. Fed in this tightening cycle than previously has pushed sterling down to $1.49, a long way below its post-recession peak of $1.72 in mid-2014. But this has done little to enhance the overall competitiveness of U.K. exports, and net trade still looks likely to exert a major drag on real GDP growth in 2016.

18 September 2018 Andean Economies Started Q3 Strongly, Can this Trend Continue (Publication Centre)

Colombia's economy remained resilient in July, thanks to strong domestic demand and relatively good external conditions for the country's top exports.

10 June. April's 'Surge' in Exports Does Not Point to a Brexit Silver Lining (Publication Centre)

News yesterday that exports surged to a record high in April was leapt on as "evidence" that sterling's Brexit-related weakness already is having positive side-effects and that therefore the economy would be relatively unscathed by a Brexit. However appealing this explanation may sound, it is nonsense.

26 July 2018 June Durable Orders Likely Hit by a Quirk in the Aircra Component (Publication Centre)

We're braced for a hefty downside surprise in today's durable goods orders numbers, thanks to a technicality.

28 February 2017 What Will the President say About Taxes and Spending? (Publication Centre)

It seems pretty clear from press reports that the White House budget, which reportedly will be released March 14, will propose substantial increases in defense spending, deep cuts to discretionary non- defense spending, and no substantive changes to entitlement programs. None of this will come as a surprise.

29 August 2018 Mexico's Prospects to Improve Following the New NAFTA Pact (Publication Centre)

Mexico's risk profile and financial metrics have improved in recent days, following news of a preliminary bilateral trade deal with the U.S. on Monday.

26 June 2017 Equity Markets will Worry if EZ PMIs Fall Further in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone PMIs stumbled at the end of Q2. The composite index slipped to a five-month low of 55.7 in June, from 56.8 in May, constrained by a fall in the services index. This offset a marginal rise in the manufacturing index to a new cyclical high. The dip in the headline does not alter the survey's upbeat short- term outlook for the economy.

28 February 2018 The BoK is in Wait-And-See Mode, Consumer Confidence Dented (Publication Centre)

Data and events have gone against the idea of further BoK policy normalisation since the November hike.

26 May 2017 First Quarter Growth Set to be Revised up, but Data are Very Flawed (Publication Centre)

We didn't believe the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth, 0.7%, and we won't believe today's second estimate, either. The data are riddled with distortions, most notably the long-standing problem of residual seasonality, which depressed the number by about one percentage point.

26 March 2018 Market Sell-offs have Stayed the MPC's Hand Before, Why Not Again? (Publication Centre)

The MPC held back last week from decisively signalling that interest rates would rise when it meets next, in May.

29 January 2018 Brazil External Accounts Are Authorities' Least Source of Concern (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts were a bright spot last year, again.

28 August 2018 Germany's Economy is Resilient in the Face of External Risks (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed GDP data in Germany confirm that the euro area's largest economy performed strongly in the second quarter.

26 June 2017 Japan Surprises on the Upside as the Economy Accelerates into Q2 (Publication Centre)

Japanese data continue to come in strongly for the second quarter. The manufacturing PMI points to continued sturdy growth, despite the headline index dipping to 52.0 in June from 53.1 in May. The average for Q2 overall was 52.6, almost unchanged from Q1's 52.8, signalling that manufacturing output growth has maintained its recent rate of growth.

29 June. 2015 Greece to Dominate Markets - Dollar, Treasuries to Benefit (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone is on the brink of its first exit this week after the ECB refused to offer incremental emergency liquidity to Greek banks, forcing the start of bank holiday through July 7--two days after next weekend's referendum--and beginning today. We have no doubt that if the banks were to open, they would soon be bust; bank runs have a habit of accelerating beyond the point of no return very quickly.

25 September 2018 Mexico's Inflation Edged Lower in mid-September Pressures are Tame (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Mexico surprised to the downside in late Q3, supporting our core view that it will continue to fall gradually over the coming months.

26 April 2017 French Business Confidence is Solid, but Manufacturing Fell in Q1 (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.

25 September 2017 Another Month, Another Robust PMI Report in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy ended the third quarter on a strong note, according to the PMIs.

25 October 2018 The Bank of Japan Turns its Attention to Real Estate Risks (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Japan's biannual Financial System Report was published earlier this week.

25 November. 2016 German GDP Growth Will Rebound in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in Germany confirmed that the economy slowed in Q3, but also added to the evidence that growth will rebound in Q4. The second estimate for Q3 showed that real GDP rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, slowing from a 0.4% gain in Q2.

26 August. 2015 Solid Net Trade Lifts German GDP in Q2, but Payback Likely in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The IFO did its part to alleviate the stock market gloom yesterday, with the business climate index rising slightly to 108.3 in August from 108.0 in July. The August reading doesn't reflect the panic in equities, though, and we need to wait until next month to gauge the real hit to business sentiment. The increase in the headline index was driven by businesses assessment of current output, with the key expectations index falling trivially to 102.2 from a revised 102.3 in July. This survey currently points to a stable trend in real GDP growth of about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with our expectation of full year growth of about 1.5%.

26 Jan. 2015 All Eyes on ECI - Nothing Matters More to the Fed than Wages (Publication Centre)

This week is, potentially, hugely important in determining the Fed's near-term view of the real state of the labor market and its approach to monetary policy over the next few months. The key event is the release of the fourth quarter employment cost index, which could make a material difference to perceptions of the degree of wage pressure.

29 June. 2016 New BCB Boss Takes a Hawkish Tone, Rates on Hold in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The publication yesterday of the first BCB quarterly inflation report under the new president, Ilan Golfajn, revealed his initial views on inflation, the currency, and monetary policy. Overall, Mr. Golfajn has taken a hawkish approach. We think Brazil's first rate cut will come no earlier than Q4, likely at the final meeting of the year, providing the government continues the fiscal consolidation process and inflation keeps falling.

29 June. 2015 Mexican Recovery is Stuttering, but Better Days Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy hit a sticky patch in the first quarter, with confidence slipping, employment growth slowing and the downward trend in unemployment stalling. Indeed, the headline unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in May from 4.3% in April. The seasonally adjusted rate, though, was little changed at 4.4%, with a stable participation rate.

26 July 2017 Preliminary GDP to Confirm Growth Remained Sluggish in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Today's preliminary estimate of GDP likely will show that the economy continued to struggle in response to high inflation, further fiscal austerity and Brexit uncertainty.

26 January 2017 Will Today's Data Shift Fourth Quarter GDP Growth Forecasts? (Publication Centre)

Three of today's economic reports, all for December, could move the needle on fourth quarter GDP growth. Ahead of the data, we're looking for growth of 1.8%, a bit below the consensus, 2.2%, and significantly weaker than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, which projects 2.8%.

26 Jan. 2015 Banxico on Hold, Thanks to Slowing Inflation--But No Easing (Publication Centre)

Mexican inflation fell sharply in the first two weeks of January, dipping by 0.2% from two weeks earlier, thanks to lower energy prices and a reduction in long-distance phone tariffs. Telecom reform explains about 15bp of the headline reduction.

29 August 2017 Is it Time to Turn Positive on the Outlook for Net Foreign Trade? (Publication Centre)

Britain still has nothing to show for sterling's depreciation, even though nearly two years have passed since markets started to price-in Brexit risk, driving the currency lower.

26 November 2018 The Coming Year won't Provide Much Respite for Asian Economies (Publication Centre)

The past year has been difficult for Asian economies, with trade wars, natural disasters, and misguided policies, to name a few, putting a dampener on growth.

27 Jan. 2015 Don't Panic over Greece, a solution between the Troika and Syriza will be found (Publication Centre)

The landslide victory by anti-austerity party Syriza in Greece this weekend will increase uncertainty in coming months. The coalition between Syriza and the Independent Greeks will prove a tough negotiating partner for the EU as both parties are strongly in favor of pushing the Troika to significant concessions on any future bailout terms this year.

28 March 2018 February Foreign Trade Data Could Move the Needle on Q1 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Markets often greet the monthly international trade numbers with a shrug.

27 September. 2016 Current Account Improving in Brazil, But Momentum is Fading (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts have recovered dramatically this year, and we expect a further improvement--albeit at a much slower pace--in the fourth quarter. The steep depreciation of the BRL last year, and the improving terms of trade due to the gradual recovery in commodity prices, drove the decline in the current account deficit in the first half.

28 September. 2016 The BCB's Report Takes a Big Step Towards Easier Money (Publication Centre)

The publication yesterday of the BCB's second quarterly inflation report under the new president, Ilan Golfajn, revealed that inflation is expected to hit the official target next year, for the first time since 2009. The inflation forecast for 2017 was lowered from 4.7% to 4.4%, just below the central bank's 4.5% target.

27 April 2018 Korean GDP Rebounds Unspectacularly after Q4 Distortions (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth rebounded to 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, after GDP fell 0.2% in Q4. Growth in Q4 was hit by distortions, thanks to a long holiday in October, which normally falls in September.

28 Oct. 2015 Q3 Slowdown Marks the Start of a Sustained Softening (Publication Centre)

Markets responded to yesterday's disappointing GDP figures by pushing back expectations for the first rise in official interest rates even further into 2017. The first rate hike is now expected--by the overnight index swap market--in April 2017, two months later than anticipated before the GDP release. The figures certainly look weak--particularly when you scratch below the surface--and we expect growth to slow further over the coming quarters. But we don't agree they imply an even longer period of inaction on the Monetary Policy Committee.

27 January 2017 Q4 Growth Likely Hit by Foreign Trade, Temporarily (Publication Centre)

We expect to learn today that the economy expanded at a 1.7% rate in the fourth quarter. At least, that's our forecast, based on incomplete data, and revisions over time could easily push growth significantly away from this estimate. The inherent unreliability of the GDP numbers, which can be revised forever--literally--explains why the Fed puts so much more emphasis on the labor market data, which are volatile month-to-month but more trustworthy over longer periods and subject to much smaller revisions.

28 November 2018 The Fed is Nearer Neutral, but That's not News Where is Neutral (Publication Centre)

Today brings a ton of data, as well as an appearance by Fed Chair Powell at the Economic Club of New York, in which we assume he will address the current state of the economy and the Fed's approach to policy.

27 June. 2016 Brexit Constrains Fed, but Limited U.S. Fallout Means December is Live (Publication Centre)

By the close on Friday, the initial reaction in U.S. markets to the U.K. Brexit vote could be characterized as a bad day at the office, but nothing worse. Not a meltdown, not a catastrophe, no exposure of suddenly dangerous fault lines.That's not to say all danger has passed, but the first hurdle has been overcome.

28 Oct. 2015 Domestic Data Point to Robust Third Quarter Growth in Mexico (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy is recovering gradually, despite many external headwinds. This week, the IGAE economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--rose a solid 2.6% year-over-year in August, up from 2.0% in July. In the first half the economy grew on average 2.4%. The report showed increases in all three sectors, most notably agriculture, up 8.2% year-over-year, followed by services, 3.3%, and industrial activities, with a 1.0% gain.

27 October. 2016 Core Capex Orders Set for Third Straight Gain as Oil Hit Fades? (Publication Centre)

The headline durable goods orders number for October, due today, likely will be depressed by falling aircraft orders, both civilian and military. Boeing reported orders for 55 civilian aircraft in September, compared to only three in August, but a hefty adverse swing in the seasonal factor will translate that into a small seasonally adjusted decline.

25 May 2018 Germany Slowed in Q1, but what Happened to Private Demand? (Publication Centre)

The headline in yesterday's detailed Q1 German GDP data was old news, confirming that growth in the euro area's largest economy slowed at the start of the year.

28 September. 2016 Narrow Money in the EZ points to Slower GDP Growth Next Year (Publication Centre)

Momentum in EZ money supply slipped marginally in September. Headline M3 growth slowed to 5.0%, from 5.1%, mainly due to a slowdown in narrow money. Overnight deposit growth slowed to 9.4%, from 9.9% in August, offsetting a slight rise in growth of currency in circulation.

26 October 2018 Plunging Korean Investment Activity Cancels-out Gains Elsewhere in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Korea's GDP growth in Q3 was a miss. Quarter- on-quarter growth was unchanged at 0.6%, below the consensus for a 0.8% rise.

26 September 2017 Japanese Manufacturing Regaining Momentum on External Demand (Publication Centre)

Mr. Abe yesterday called a snap general election, to be held on October 22nd; more on this in tomorrow's Monitor. For now, note that the election comes at a reasonably good stage of the economic cycle, hot on the heels of very rapid GDP growth in Q2, while the PMIs indicate that the economy remained healthy in Q3.

26 October 2018 It Would Take a Lot to Turn the ECB Away from Ending QE in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The ECB kept its cool yesterday, at the headline level, amid crashing stock markets, volatile BTPs and souring economic data.

28 August 2017 Expect a Correction in the July Trade Data, but Trends are Favorable (Publication Centre)

Net foreign trade made a positive contribution of 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in the second quarter, matching the Q1 performance.

27 November 2018 Japan's Flash PMI Puts a Q4 GDP Rebound into Serious Doubt (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI report for November was abysmal, putting the chances of a recovery this quarter into serious doubt.

28 February 2017 Colombia's Economy is Struggling, but Further Easing is Coming (Publication Centre)

The Colombian economy was relatively resilient at the end of last year, but economic reports released during the last few weeks indicate that growth is still fragile, and that downside risks have increased. Real GDP rose 1.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.6% from 1.2% in Q3.

26 September 2018 Brazil's External Accounts Will Remain Resilient the BRL Will Help (Publication Centre)

Brazilian financial assets lately appear to be responding only to developments in the presidential election race and external jitters.

29 August 2017 Hurricane Harvey will Depress September Output and Payrolls (Publication Centre)

The terrible scenes from Texas will play out in the economic data over the next few weeks.

28 April 2017 The Economy Appears to have Stalled in Q1, but Q2 Will be Better (Publication Centre)

Whatever number the BEA publishes this morning for first quarter GDP growth -- we expect zero -- you probably should add about one percentage point to correct for the persistent seasonal adjustment problem which has plagued the data for many years. Reported first quarter growth has been weaker than the average for the preceding three quarters in 21 of the 31 years since 1985 -- and in eight of the past 10 years.

26 September 2018 Is China Really Deleveraging, and can it Last? (Publication Centre)

After years of rapid increase, China appears finally to have stabilised its ratio of private non-financial to GDP ratio.

28 June 2017 ISM Survey Suggests May Trade Deficit to Drop Sharply (Publication Centre)

The April international trade numbers were startlingly, and surprisingly, horrible. The deficit in trade in goods leaped by $6.2B -- the biggest one-month jump in two years -- to $67.1B, though the headline damage was limited by a sharp narrowing in the oil deficit, thanks to lower prices, and a rebound in the aircraft surplus.

28 February 2018 Why Hasn't Britain Enjoyed a Significant Trade Boost? (Publication Centre)

Sterling's depreciation, which began over two years ago, has inflicted pain on consumers but fostered a negligible improvement in net trade.

24 May 2018 If the BoK Lacks the Stamina to Hike this Week, 2018 Could be Barren (Publication Centre)

Korea's 20-day export growth came in weaker than we anticipated earlier this week. Granted, year-over- year growth rebounded to 14.8% in May, from 8.3% in April.

22 November. 2016 Trade Data are Improving in the Andes... Better Still in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Colombia's trade deficit continued to narrow in Q3; a postive development now that EM are back in the firing line. Assuming no revisions, the marginal year-over-year dip in the September trade deficit means that the third quarter deficit was USD3.1B, down from US4.6B a year ago.

22 September 2017 Policy Divergence is Back on as the BoJ Stands Pat (Publication Centre)

The BoJ kept policy unchanged yesterday, with the policy balance rate remaining at -0.1% and the 10-year yield target remaining around zero.

22 November 2018 Korea's Export Slump in November Points to Further Global Softness (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade figures for the first 20 days of November, published yesterday, gave the first real glimpse in a long time of how its exporters are truly performing.

22 November 2017 LEIs Point to Stabilising Japanese Domestic Demand Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Japan's all-industry activity index fell 0.5% month-on- month in September after a 0.2% rise in August. Construction activity continued to plummet, with the subindex dropping 2.3%, after a 2.2% fall in August.

22 May 2018 Sino-U.S. Negotiations Present a Risk to Japan's Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus rebounded to ¥522B in April, on our adjustment, from ¥390B in March, around the same level as the official version, though from a higher base.

23 Apr. 2015 Cyclical recovery in the Eurozone will likely moderate in Q2, slightly (Publication Centre)

The preliminary April PMIs due today will provide the first economic sentiment data for Q2, and likely will point to a continuation of the cyclical recovery. We think the composite PMI was unchanged at 54.0 in April, driven by a small gain in manufacturing offset by a slight decline in services.

23 Feb. 2015 Mexico's GDP Rising at the Fastest Pace in Two Years - More to Come? (Publication Centre)

Punished by the global economic slowdown depressing commodity prices, the Mexican economy is now making a gradual comeback, thanks to the continuing strength of its main trading partner, increasing public expenditure on key infrastructure projects, and accommodative monetary policy.

23 June 2017 Will French Domestic Demand in Rebound in Q2? (Publication Centre)

The June batch of the French statistical office's business surveys continues to signal a firming cyclical recovery. The aggregate business index rose to cyclical high of 106 in June from a revised 105 in May, continuing an uptrend that began in the middle of 2016.

23 July 2018 Brace for Very Strong Q2 GDP Growth, but a Q3 Payback is Coming (Publication Centre)

Back on May 14, we argued--see here--that the stars were aligned to generate very strong second quarter GDP growth, perhaps even reaching 5%.

23 February 2018 PBoC Fights Back Against RMB Strength but BoJ Le to Jawbone (Publication Centre)

The PBoC managed to keep interest rates well- anchored around the Chinese New Year holiday, when volatility is often elevated.

23 February 2017 Q4 GDP Flatters to Deceive, a Consumer-led Slowdown is Coming (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, the GDP data continue to suggest that the Brexit vote has had no adverse consequences for the economy. The official estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q4 was revised up yesterday to 0.7%, from 0.6%. The revision had been flagged earlier this month by stronger industrial production and construction output figures.

22 May 2017 Have Eurozone Investors Lost Their Appetite for Foreign Debt? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's current account surplus remained close to record highs at the end of Q1, despite dipping slightly to €34.1B in March, from a revised €37.8B in February. A further increase in the services surplus was the key story.

22 June. 2016 Promising Inflation Picture in Brazil, Better News is Coming (Publication Centre)

Brazil's mid-June inflation reading surprised to the downside, falling to 9.0% from 9.6% in May. The reading essentially confirmed that May's rebound was a pause in the downward trend rather than a resurgence of inflationary pressures. A 1.3% increase in housing prices, including services, was the main driver of mid-June's modest unadjusted 0.4% month-to-month rise in the IPCA-15.

21 September. 2016 Sluggish Start to Q3 in Brazil, But Trend is Still Improving (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession stretched into the start of the third quarter, but its intensity has eased. The IBC-Br economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--fell 0.1% month-to-month seasonally adjusted in July, following a 0.4% gain in June. The unadjusted year-over-year rate fell to -5.2%, from an upwardly revised -2.9%.

21 September 2018 Brazilian Policymakers Start to Open the Door for Rate Hikes (Publication Centre)

Brazil's domestic economic outlook has not changed much recently.

21 November 2018 Commodity Prices Struggle in the Trade War Will LatAm be Resilient (Publication Centre)

The sharp downtrend in commodity prices in recent months is alarming from a LatAm perspective.

21 November 2017 Near-term Risks are to the Downside for Japan's Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Japan's official adjusted surplus rose in October but we think the September figure was an understatement. On our adjustment, the surplus was little unchanged at ¥360B in October.

22 August 2018 Will the French Economy Re-Assert Itself in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in France has been the key downside surprise in the Eurozone this year.

22 August. 2016 Acceleration in German GDP Growth Likely Won't be Sustained (Publication Centre)

While we were out, the key economic news in the Eurozone was mostly positive. The main upside surprise came from the advance Q2 German GDP report, which showed that real GDP rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, slowing from the 0.7% jump in the first quarter.

22 June 2018 Asian Data Point to Slowing World Trade Growth this Year (Publication Centre)

Korean trade activity is slowing.

22 Jan. 2016 How Long Will the Inventory Correction Last? (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a substantial inventory hit in the fourth quarter, subtracting about 1¼ percentage points from headline GDP growth. Businesses very likely added to their inventories in Q4, in real terms, but the we reckon the increase was only about $30B, annualized, compared to the $85.5B jump in the third quarter. Remember, the contribution to GDP growth is the change in the pace of inventory-building between quarters.

22 February 2018 Hold The Press: We Have a Downbeat Eurozone PMI Report (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data presented Eurozone investors with an unfamiliar sight; a big downside surprise in the survey data.

22 February 2017 Q4 GDP Likely to be Revised up, but Momentum won't Endure (Publication Centre)

We expect the official estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q4 to be revised up to 0.7% today, from last month's preliminary estimate of 0.6%. The consensus forecast is for no revision, so the data likely will boost interest rate expectations and sterling, if we're right.

23 May 2017 How to Lift French GDP Growth to Above 1.5% Year-over-year (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the French economy since the sovereign debt crisis has been lukewarm. Growth in domestic demand, excluding inventories, has averaged 0.4% quarter-on-quarter since 2012. This comp ares with 0.8%-to-1.1% in the two major business cycle upturns in the 1990s and from 2000s before the crisis.

23 November. 2016 Brazil's Current Account De cit is Stabilizing, Improvement Ahead (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external deficit fell marginally in October, but most of the improvement is now likely behind us. The unadjusted current account deficit dipped to USD3.3B, from USD4.3B in October 2015. The trend is stabilizing, with the 12-month total rolling deficit easing to USD22B--that's 1.2% of GDP--from USD23B in September.

25 April 2018 Brazil's Labour Market Recovery Has Lost Momentum, but it will Improve (Publication Centre)

In Brazil, last week's formal payroll employment report for March was decent, with employment increasing by 56K, well above the consensus expectation for a 48K gain.

25 April 2018 A Warning From the IFO (Publication Centre)

The April IFO business sentiment survey increased the degree of uncertainty over the German economy, following stabilisation in the PMIs earlier this week.

24 September 2018 BoJ Still Likely to Shift the Focus to Capacity-Responsive Prices (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation jumped to 1.3% in August, from 0.9% in July.

24 Sept. 2015 PMIs Point to Stable and Strong Eurozone GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

PMI data yesterday provided some relief to anxious investors, despite a modest drop in the headline. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell to 53.9 in September from 54.3 in August, driven by slight falls in both manufacturing and services. Assuming no major changes to the advance September reading--usually a fair bet--the PMI rose marginally in Q3, pointing to a continuation of the cyclical recovery.

24 October 2018 Korea's Stronger Q3 Growth Likely due to Falling Imports, Ominously (Publication Centre)

Korea's preliminary GDP report for Q3 will be released tomorrow.

25 April 2018 Korean Q1 GDP Growth will Bounce Back, A er Q4 Distortions (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth--to be published on Thursday--should bounce back in Q1 to 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, after the 0.2% drop in Q4.

25 August. 2015 Market Panic Puts Pressure on ECB, but Fed's Response is Key (Publication Centre)

Weakness in risk assets turned into panic yesterday with the Eurostoxx falling over 6%, taking the accumulated decline to 19% since the beginning of August, and volatility hitting a three-year high. Market crashes of this kind are usually followed by a period of violent ups and downs, and we expect volatile trading in coming weeks. Following an extended bull market in risk assets, the key question investors will be asking is whether the economic cycle is turning.

25 June 2018 Imports Still Falling as the Hurricane Surge Continues to Unwind? (Publication Centre)

The latest data from container ports around the country are consistent with our view that imports are still correcting after the surge late last year, triggered by the hurricanes.

25 July 2018 Threats Posed by Brexit and Trump Stymie Manufacturing Investment (Publication Centre)

The CBI's Industrial Trends Survey, for July and Q3, supplied encouraging evidence yesterday that the manufacturing upswing still has momentum.

25 July 2017 Korean Q2 GDP Growth to Provide Evidence of Chinese Slowdown (Publication Centre)

After strong real GDP growth in Q1, China commentators called the peak, claiming that growth would slow for the rest of 2017.

25 January 2018 Japan's Trade Surplus Should Diminish but December was a Blip (Publication Centre)

Chinese New Year effects were very visible in Japan's December trade data. Export growth slowed sharply to 9.3% year-over-year in December, from 16.2% in November.

24 November. 2016 The Fiscal Fetters Remain in Place, Despite the Looming Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor's Autumn Statement dashed hopes that the fiscal consolidation will be paused while the economy struggles to adjust to the implications of Brexit. Admittedly, Mr. Hammond has another opportunity in the Spring Budget to reduce next year's fiscal tightening.

24 November. 2016 EZ PMIs Rise Further in November- The Outlook is Good for Q4 GDP (Publication Centre)

The PMIs are telling an increasingly upbeat story for the EZ economy in Q4. The composite PMI in the euro area rose to an 11-month high of 54.1 in November, from 53.3 in October. The uptick was driven by strong new business growth across all private sectors, and employment also increased in response to higher work backlogs.

24 July 2018 GDP Growth in Korea Likely Slipped in Q2, on Cooler Domestic Demand (Publication Centre)

GDP data for Q2 are due July 26; we expect the report to show a marginal dip in growth, to a seasonally adjusted 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, from 1.0% in Q1.

24 July 2018 EZ Consumption Accelerated in H1, But Will Slow in H2 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone consumer confidence remained at its low for the year at the start of Q3.

24 February 2017 German Economy did Well in Q4, but What Happened to Net Trade? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed German GDP report raised more questions than it answered. The headline confirmed that growth accelerated to 0.4% quarteron- quarter in Q4, from 0.1% in Q3, leaving the year-over- year rate unchanged at 1.7%.

23 October 2017 The EZ's Current Account Surplus Rose in Q3, but the Trend is Falling (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded further over the summer.

24 March 2017 Rapid Disinflation will Allow the BCB to Ease More Quickly (Publication Centre)

Brazil has made a convincing escape from high inflation in the past few months, laying the groundwork for a gradual economic recovery and faster cuts in interest rates. Mid-March CPI data, released this week, confirmed that inflation pressures eased substantially this month.

24 March 2017 TLTROs Finish with a Bang, but it Probably does not Mean Much (Publication Centre)

Robust demand in the ECB's final TLTRO auction was the main story in EZ financial markets yesterday. Euro area banks--474 in total-- took up €233.5B in the March TLTRO, well above the consensus forecast €110B. To us, this strong demand is a sign that EZ banks are taking advantage of the TLTROs' incredibly generous conditions.

24 November 2017 Why Investors Should Heed China's Pivot to Environmentalism (Publication Centre)

We believe China is going through a paradigm shift in its economic policy, away from GDPism-- the obsession with GDP growth targeting--to environmentalism, setting widespread environmental targets on everything, from air to water to waste.

24 Nov. 2015 Q3 Growth Will be Revised Up, but 2015 Will Fall Short (Publication Centre)

An array of data today will be mostly positive, and even the most likely candidate for a downside surprise--the October advance trade numbers--is very unlikely to change anyone's mind on the Fed's December decision. On the plus side, the first revision to third quarter GDP growth should see the headline number dragged up into almost respectable territory, at 2.4%, from the deeply underwhelming 1.5% initial estimate.

24 May 2018 No Relief to Markets from the Eurozone PMIs in May (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data in the Eurozone did little to calm investors' nerves amid rising political uncertainty in Italy and tremors in emerging markets.

29 March 2017 Consumers are Happy, but Spending Will Lag Sentiment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data don't significantly change our view that first quarter GDP growth will be reported at only about 1%, but the foreign trade and consumer confidence numbers support our contention that the underlying trend in growth is rather stronger than that.

25 May 2017 Balance Sheet Run-off set to Start in the Fall, but Slowly (Publication Centre)

The FOMC minutes confirmed that most FOMC members were not swayed by the weak-looking first quarter GDP numbers or the soft March core CPI. Both are considered likely to prove "transitory", and the underlying economic outlook is little changed from March.

4 December 2017 GDP Growth Will Rise in Brazil Next Year, but Political Risk is Looming (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that Brazil's recovery has continued over the second half of the year, supported by steady household consumption and rebounding capex.

7 Apr. 2016 Real Economic Data Point to an Upbeat German GDP Story in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German industrial production data were poor, but better than we expected. Output fell 0.5% month-to-month in February, pushing annual growth down to 1.3% from a revised 1.8% in January. In addition, net revisions to the month-to-month data were a hefty -1.0%, but this is not enough to change the story of a Q1 rebound in industrial production.

7 December. 2016 Steady as She Goes for the EZ Economy, Despite Political Turmoil (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed EZ GDP report showed that real output rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, the same pace as in Q2. The year-over-over rate rose marginally to 1.7% from 1.6%, trivially higher than the first estimate, 1.6%. The details showed that consumers' spending and public consumption were the key drivers of growth in Q3, offsetting a slowdown in net trade.

6 September. 2016 Payrolls Will Revive, but not Immediately, Ignore "So" AHE (Publication Centre)

Over the past six months, payroll growth has averaged exactly 150K. Over the previous six months, the average increase was 230K. And in the six months to August 2015--a fairer comparison, because the fourth quarter numbers enjoy very favorable seasonals, flattering the data--payroll growth averaged 197K.

6 September 2017 Chinese Service PMI Still Stable but Glosses Over Subsector Divergence (Publication Centre)

The services sector in China is notoriously difficult to track, with the major aggregate statistics published only on a quarterly or even annual basis.

6 October 2017 September Payrolls Hit by the Hurricanes, but Earnings set to Pop (Publication Centre)

We would be quite surprised if today's official payroll number exceeded the 135K ADP reading; a clear undershoot is much more likely.

7 February 2017 Q1 Growth to Disappoint, Again? (Publication Centre)

The obvious answer to the question posed in our title is that it's far too early to tell what will happen to first quarter growth. More than half the quarter hasn't even happened yet, and data for January are still extremely patchy, with no official reports on retail sales, industrial production, housing, capex, inventories or international trade yet available. For what it's worth, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model signals growth of 3.4%, though we note that it substantially overstated the first estimate of growth in the fourth quarter.

7 July. 2015 Cyclical Recovery is Resilient - Not Immune - To Greek Turmoil (Publication Centre)

The sell-off in bonds and equities continued yesterday, but the reaction bears no resemblance, so far, to the sovereign debt crises in 2012 and 2010. The first evidence from sentiment data in July also points to surprising stability. The headline Sentix index rose to 18.5, up slightly from 17.1 in June, but the expectations index fell marginally, to 22.3 from 22.5.

7 Oct. 2015 Trend in German New Orders is Stable, Despite Monthly Plunge (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's factory orders report in German was grim reading. New orders fell 1.8% month-to-month in August, following a downwardly revised 2.2% plunge in July. Weakness in export demand and mean reversion in domestic orders were the key culprits. Domestic orders fell 2.6% month-to-month; nothing to worry about after a near-4% jump in July.

7 March 2018 The Eurozone has a lot to lose from a trade war (Publication Centre)

We are surprised by the EU's reaction to Mr. Trump's announcement that the U.S. will impose tariffs on steel and aluminium.

7 March 2018 ADP Set to Report Strong Payrolls in February, 200K Seems a Good Bet (Publication Centre)

All the signs are that ADP will today report a solid increase in February private payrolls; our forecast is 200K, but if you twist our arms we'd probably say the mild weather last month across most of the country points to a bit of upside risk.

7 June 2018 Slower Growth in Consumer Credit is a Correction, not a Warning (Publication Centre)

We've been hearing a good deal about the slowdown in the rate of growth of consumer credit in recent months, and with the April data due for release today, it makes sense now to reiterate our view that the recent numbers are no cause for alarm.

6 Oct. 2015 Will the Industrial Slowdown Drag Down the Rest of the Economy? (Publication Centre)

The elevated September ISM non-manufacturing index reported yesterday--it dipped to 56.9 but remains very high by historical standards--again served to underscore the depth of the bifurcation in the economy. The services sector, boosted by the collapse in gasoline prices and the strong dollar, is massively outperforming the woebegone manufacturing sector.

6 March 2017 Fed Fears Hit LatAm FX Last Week - is a Renewed Sell-off Coming? (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have struggled in recent days as it has become clear that the Fed will hike next week. But we don't expect currencies to collapse, as domestic fundamentals are improving and the broader external outlook is relatively benign.

5 September. 2016 Is a Further Rate Cut no Longer a Done Deal? (Publication Centre)

The run of consensus-beating activity measures and the pickup in leading indicators of inflation have led markets to doubt that the MPC really will follow up August's package of stimulus measures with another Bank Rate cut this year.

5 September 2018 The Surge in August's ISM is Welcome but won't be Repeated (Publication Centre)

August's 14-year high in the ISM manufacturing index, reported yesterday, clearly is a noteworthy event from a numerology perspective, but we doubt it marks the start of a renewed upward trend.

5 September 2018 Order Books Point to a Q3 Rebound in Korean Construction Activity (Publication Centre)

Headline GDP growth in Korea was revised down, to a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, from 0.7% in the preliminary report.

5 September 2017 BanRep's Hawks want Proof the Coming In ation Jump is Noise (Publication Centre)

Colombia's Central Bank is about to face a short-term dilemma. The recent fall in inflation will be interrupted while economic growth, particularly private spending, will struggle to build momentum over the second half.

6 December. 2016 PMI Data Signal a Solid End to 2016 for the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

The final EZ PMI data for November yesterday confirmed that the composite index in the Eurozone rose to an 11-month high of 53.9, from 53.3 in October. The key driver was an improvement in services, boosted by stronger data in all the major economies. Manufacturing activity also improved, though, and the details showed that new business growth was robust in both sectors.

6 Feb. 2015 Chilean Growth Is Improving, But China's Slowdown Is A Worry (Publication Centre)

Chilean GDP growth hit bottom in August, but activity is now picking up and will gather speed over the coming quarters. The tailwinds from lower oil prices and fiscal stimulus will soon be visible in the activity data.

6 Mar. 2015 The BCB Hikes Again But The Tightening Cycle is Not Quite Over (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian industrial sector started this year on a very downbeat note, despite a 2% month-to-month jump in output. The underlying trend in activity is still very weak. Production fell 5.2% year-over-year.

6 June 2017 Andes Economies to Recover in H2, Thanks to Loose Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

Recent data have confirmed that growth in the Andean economies--Colombia, Chile and Peru--faced downward pressure in Q1, but some leading indicators and recent hard data suggest that we should expect better news ahead.

6 July 2018 Industrial Activity in LatAm Taking Different Paths, Temporarily at Least (Publication Centre)

Industrial activity in LatAm, at least in the largest economies, is taking different paths.

6 February 2018 Welcome to the Chair, Mr. Powell - How was Your First Day? (Publication Centre)

The record 1,178-point drop in the Dow will garner all the headlines today, but a sense of perspetive is in order, despite the chaos. The 113-point, or 4.1%, fall in the S&P 500 was very startling, but it merely returned the index to its early December level; it has given up the gains only of the past nine weeks.

7 September 2018 First Signs of EM Weakness in the Eurozone Hard Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in German threw off a nasty surprise.

7 September. 2016 How Will the U.K. Resolve the Immigration,Trade Dilemma? (Publication Centre)

Following the summer recess, the U.K. Government has turned to the unenviable task of weighing up how much economic pain to endure in order to reduce immigration. The Government's insistence that Brexit "must mean controls on the numbers of people who come to Britain from Europe" suggests it is prepared to sacrifice access to the single market in order to appease public opinion.

9 Feb. 2015 The German economy is improving: Q4 GDP will beat consensus (Publication Centre)

German industrial production data were presented by Bloomberg News as signs that the recovery is "gathering momentum", but it is slightly premature to make that call. Narrow money growth is currently sending a strong signal of higher GDP growth this year in the euro area, but the message from the manufacturing sector is still one of stabilisation rather than acceleration.

9 July 2018 Evidence is Mounting that German Manufacturing did Well in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data in Germany added to the manufacturing optimism following the sharp rise in new orders--see here--reported earlier in the week.

9 Dec. 2015 Services will Push up Core Inflation in the EZ Next Year (Publication Centre)

Core inflation--a long lagging indicator in the euro area-- will rise next year, in response to surging consumers' spending. Our first chart shows that services inflation likely will be a key theme in this story. Even allowing for a structural drag on inflation due to high unemployment outside Germany, cyclical risks to services inflation are tilted firmly to the upside.

9 August 2018 War and Peace in China's Trade Data... and Some Capital Flows (Publication Centre)

China's export data shows little impact from trade tensions so far.

9 August 2017 Chinese Trade Growth to Continue Trending Down in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

The headline Chinese trade numbers are beginning to come into line with the story we have been telling about the more recent trends.

9 June 2017 Inflation in Mexico will Stabilize Soon, Despite May's Ugly Headline (Publication Centre)

The Mexican inflation rate soared at the start of 2017, but this is yesterday's story; the headline will stabilize soon and will decline slowly towards the year-end. May data yesterday showed that inflation rose to 6.2%, from 5.8% in April. Prices fell 0.1% month-to-month unadjusted in May, driven mainly by lower non-core prices, which dropped by 1.3%, as a result of lower seasonal electricity tariffs.

9 May 2018 The German Economy Finished Q1 on a Strong Note (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports showed that the German economy firmed at the end of Q1, but this doesn't change the story for a poor quarter overall.

9 September. 2016 Inventories are Key to Q3 Growth, but Anything Could Happen (Publication Centre)

Inventories subtracted 1.3 percentage points from headline GDP growth in the second quarter and were by far the biggest constraint on the economy. This was the fifth straight drag from inventories, but it was more than twice the average hit over the previous year.

9 Sept. 2015 Cyclical Recovery in the Eurozone Goes from Strength to Strength (Publication Centre)

Final Q2 GDP data yesterday indicate the euro area economy was stronger than initially estimated in the first half of the year. Real GDP rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, slightly higher than the initial estimate of 0.3, following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in Q1. Upward revisions to GDP in Italy were the key driver of the more upbeat growth picture. The revisions mean that annualised Eurozone growth is now estimated at 1.8% in the first six months of the year, up from the previous 1.4%, consistent with the bullish message from real M1 growth and the composite PMI.

9 October 2017 Did German Manufacturing Pick up the Pace in Q3? (Publication Centre)

Friday's German new orders data were sizzling. Factory orders jumped 3.6% month-to-month in August, pushing the year-over-year rate up to a nine-month high of 7.8%, from an upwardly-revised 5.4% in July.

9 November 2018 Stockbuilding Won't Temper the Near-Term Slowdown (Publication Centre)

A flawed theory still is circulating that the economy might outperform over the next two quarters because firms will stockpile goods due to the risk of a no-deal Brexit.

8 October 2018 German Manufacturing Export Orders Probably Bottomed in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Friday's factory orders report in Germany provided a bit of relief amid the gloom in manufacturing.

8 November. 2016 Focus on the Improving Trend in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand for German manufacturing goods slipped at the end of Q3. Yesterday's report showed that factory orders fell 0.6% month-to-month in September, constrained by weakness in domestic demand and falling export orders to other EZ economies.

8 February 2018 Is the Acceleration in German Manufacturing Output Over? (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in Germany stumbled at the end of Q4. Data yesterday showed that output fell 0.6 month-to-month in December, though this drop has to be seen in light of the downwardly-revised 3.1% jump in November.

8 December 2017 Production Likely Was Neither Strong Nor Stable in October (Publication Centre)

The 0.7% month-to-month rise in industrial production in September marked the sixth consecutive increase, a feat last achieved 23 years ago.

8 Apr. The Trade Deficit Will Remain Bloated, Despite the Weaker Pound (Publication Centre)

Net trade has been a major drag on the economy's growth rate in recent quarters, and February's trade figures, released today, are likely to signal another dismal performance in the first quarter.

8 Apr. 2015 Slowly does it for upturn in the German manufacturing sector (Publication Centre)

German factory orders probably bounced a modest 0.3% month-to-month in February, equivalent to a 0.5% decline year-over-year. We expect private investment growth to have picked up in the first quarter, but leading indicators for the industrial sector in Germany are sending conflicting signals.

8 January 2018 Brazil's Industrial Sector and Foreign Trade to Remain Resilient in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a relatively resilient Brazilian economy in the last few months, despite intensified political risk, and hard data are beginning to confirm this story.

8 July. 2015 Evidence, so far, Points to Strong Q2 GDP Print in Germany (Publication Centre)

German GDP growth likely accelerated in the second quarter, following a disappointing 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1. Growth in the manufacturing sector remains modest, and the trend in consumers' spending remains solid. Industrial production was unchanged in May, pushing year-over-year growth to 2.1% from a revised 1.1% in April.

8 May 2018 China's Diminished Current Account Surplus is Hugely Significant (Publication Centre)

China's current account dropped sharply in Q1, to a deficit of $28.2B, from a surplus of $62.3B in Q4.

8 May 2017 Rocky Commodity Markets Put LatAm FX under Temporary Stress (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have done well in recent weeks on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD. A less confrontational approach from the U.S. administration to trade policy has helped too.

8 March 2017 Focus on the Trend in German Factory Orders, to Retain Sanity (Publication Centre)

A setback in German manufacturing orders was coming after the jump at the end of 2016, but yesterday's headline was worse than we expected. Factory orders crashed 7.4% month-to-month in January, more than reversing the 5.4% jump in December. The year-over-year rate fell to -0.8% from a revised +8.0%. The decline was the biggest since 2009, but the huge volatility in domestic capital goods orders means that the headline has to be taken with a large pinch of salt.

8 July. 2016 German Economy Likely Stalled in Q2, but Don't Forget the Q1 Surge (Publication Centre)

German GDP growth jumped in the first quarter, but monthly economic data suggest the economy all but stalled in Q2. Yesterday's industrial production data are a case in point. Output slid 1.3% month-tomonth in May, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -0.4% from a revised 0.8% gain in April. Adding insult to injury, the month-to-month number for April was revised down by 0.3 percentage points

5 September 2017 How Much of a Headwind is a Stronger Euro for EZ Equities? (Publication Centre)

At the start of the year, consensus forecasts expected Eurozone equities to outperform their global peers this year, on the back of a strengthening cyclical recovery and an increase in earnings growth. Both of these conditions have been met, and yesterday's sentiment data suggest that EZ equity investors remain constructive.

5 October 2018 Jobs Likely Weaker than ADP but Still Solid (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the ADP report released Wednesday, we moved up our payroll forecast to 150K from 100K, but we've now taken a closer look at the post-Florence path of jobless claims.

3 November 2017 Asian Policy Divergence Can't Continue. PBoC to Fold First (Publication Centre)

The two major central banks in Asia currently have hugely different aims, causing a policy divergence that won't survive the 2018 rise in external yields.

3 October 2017 Manufacturing Powers Ahead, Supported by External Demand (Publication Centre)

The Asian PMIs point to a strengthening manufacturing sector in September but external demand is the driver.

3 May. 2016 Will GDP Growth in the Eurozone Accelerate This Year? (Publication Centre)

Last week's advance EZ GDP data for the first quarter suggest the economy shrugged off the volatility in financial markets. Eurostat's first estimate indicates that real GDP in the euro area rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, up from 0.3% in Q4, and above the consensus, 0.4%.

3 May 2018 China's PMI Export Orders Paint an Overly Gloomy Picture (Publication Centre)

The forward-looking indices of China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for April attracted more attention than the headline, which was a bit of a non-event; it rose trivially 51.1, from 51.0 in March.

3 May 2018 A Sense of Relief, Despite the Q1 Slowdown in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance Q1 GDP data in the EZ confirmed that growth slowed at the start of the year.

3 October 2018 Chuseok Hit Clouds the End of Marginally Stronger Q3 in Korea (Publication Centre)

Korean industrial production surprised to the upside in August, according to data released yesterday.

3 September 2018 Brazil's Economy was Resilient in Q2, but the Recovery is Sluggish (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian economy enjoyed a decent Q2, with GDP rising 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, despite the disruptions caused by the truck drivers' strike, after a 0.1% decline in Q1.

30 January 2018 Mexico's Trade Gap Shrank in 2017, Helped by NAFTA-Related Fears (Publication Centre)

Mexico's trade balance shrank slightly last year, to USD11B, from USD13B in 2016. The main driver was a big swing in the non- energy balance, to a record USD8.0B surplus, following a USD0.4B deficit in 2016.

30 January 2017 Mexico's Trade Gap is Shrinking, but Medium-Term Outlook is Cloudy (Publication Centre)

Mexico's trade balance shrank slightly last year, to USD13B, from USD14.6B in 2015. An improvement in the non-energy deficit was the main driver, while the energy gap worsened.

30 January 2017 Can the Second Half Growth Momentum Carry into this Year? (Publication Centre)

We were nervous ahead of the GDP numbers on Friday, wondering if our forecast of a 1.5 percentage point hit from foreign trade was too aggressive. In the event, though, the trade hit was a huge 1.7pp, so domestic demand rose at a 3.5% pace.

30 April 2018 Q1 Slowdown Confirmed in the EZ, but Don't Push the Panic Button (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance GDP data provided the first solid evidence of a Q1 slowdown in the euro area economy.

3 May 2017 EZ Q1 GDP Growth Likely won't Live up to the Soaring Surveys (Publication Centre)

Survey data point to a very strong headline, 0.6%-to-0.7% quarter-on-quarter, in today's Q1 advance Eurozone GDP report. But the hard data have been less ebullient than the surveys. A GDP regression using retail sales, industrial production and construction points to a more modest 0.4% increase, implying a slowdown from the upwardly-revised 0.5% gain in Q4.

3 July 2017 National Accounts Expose Britain's Economic Fragility (Publication Centre)

Last week's national accounts confirmed that the economy lost momentum abruptly in Q1, with net trade and investment failing to offset weaker growth in households' spending.

29 November 2017 Unemployment in Mexico Keeps Falling, but Risks Have Increased (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's October labour market data in Mexico showed that the adjusted unemployment rate rose a bit to 3.4%, from 3.3% in September.

29 May. 2015 Foreign Trade Chaos Hurt Q1 GDP Growth - Expect Hefty Q2 Unwind (Publication Centre)

The biggest single driver of the downward revision to first quarter GDP growth, due this morning, will be the foreign trade component. Headline GDP growth likely will be pushed down by a full percentage point, to -0.8% from +0.2%, with trade accounting for about 0.7 percentage points of the revision.

29 March 2018 Korean GDP Should Bounce Back in Q1, but Faces Headwinds Thereafter (Publication Centre)

The picture for Korean quarterly real GDP growth in Q4 was unchanged in the final reading, published yesterday, showing a contraction of 0.2%, after the 1.4% jump in Q3.

29 March 2018 Another Big Fall in the Saving Rate Likely Boosted GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The national accounts, released today, likely will restate that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth held steady at 0.4% in Q4.

29 September 2017 External Accounts no Longer Improving in Brazil and Mexico (Publication Centre)

Brazil's current account deficit is stabilizing following an substantial narrowing since early 2015, thanks to the deep recession.

29 September 2017 Revisions to Show Higher Household Saving, but a Worse External Deficit (Publication Centre)

The picture of the economy's recent performance will be redrawn today, when the national accounts are published.

3 February 2017 Brazil's Q4 Industrial Output was Poor, Q1 Will be Much Better (Publication Centre)

Brazil's Q4 industrial production report, released Wednesday, confirmed that the recovery remained sluggish at the end of last year. December's print alone was relatively strong, though, and the cyclical correction in inventories--on the back of improving demand--lower interest rates, and the better external outlook, all suggest that the industrial economy will do much better this year.

3 December 2018 The Bank of Korea has Come to the End of its Tightening Cycle (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea finally pulled the trigger, raising its base rate to 1.75% at its meeting on Friday. After a year of will-they-or-won't-they, five of the Monetary Policy Board's seven members voted to add another 25 basis points to their previous hike twelve months ago.

3 December 2018 Brazil's Solid Q3 GDP Data Pave the Way for an Upbeat 2019 (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that Brazil's recovery has continued over the second half of the year, supported by steady household consumption and rebounding capex.

3 April 2017 Brazil's Labour Market is Still Poor, but Likely Will Stabilize Soon (Publication Centre)

Economic data released on Friday underscored our view that bolder rate cuts in Brazil are looming. The BCB's latest BCB's inflation report, released on Thursday, showed that policymakers now see conditions in place to increase the pace of easing "moderately" .

30 June 2017 Q1 National Accounts Won't Meet the Governor's Rate Hike Criteria (Publication Centre)

Markets will be extremely sensitive to economic data in the run-up to the MPC's next meeting on August 3, following signals from several Committee members that they think the cas e for a rate rise has strengthened.

30 June 2017 Temer's Fate Carries Risks, but a Currency Meltdown Isn't One (Publication Centre)

Brazil's unadjusted current account surplus soared to USD2.9B in May, its highest level since 2006, from USD1.1B in May 2016.

5 December 2016 Mexico's PMIs Fell in November, Q4 GDP Outlook is Poor (Publication Centre)

The MXN came under pressure last week as news broke that Banxico Governor Agustin Carstens plans to resign next year. Mr. Carstens has led the bank since 2010; during his term, Banxico cut interest rates to record low levels and managed to keep inflation under control.

5 December 2017 Japan: QQE is Dead, Long Live YCC... For Now (Publication Centre)

Japan's monetary base growth has continued to slow, to 13.2% year-over-year in November from 14.5% in October.

4 September 2018 Is Fear of Further Tariffs Boosting Capex and Inventory-Building? (Publication Centre)

While we were out, most of the core domestic economic data were quite strong, with the exception of the soft July home sales numbers and the Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

4 September 2018 Colombia's Recovery Continues, and the Fundamentals are Sound (Publication Centre)

Activity data from Colombia over the past quarter have been strong. Real GDP expanded by a relatively robust 2.8% year-over-year in Q2, and is on track to post a 3.2% increase in Q3.

4 September 2017 China's PMIs Imply Producer Prices are Still Rising Rapidly (Publication Centre)

This Monitor provides a summary of the main points of interest over the two weeks we were out. The Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI, published last Friday, confounded expectations for a modest fall, rising to 51.6 in August from 51.1 in July.

5 December 2018 Brazil's Industrial Output Started Q4 Softly, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Brazil's key data flow started Q4 on a soft note, but we still believe that the economic recovery will gather strength over the next three-to-six months.

5 Feb. 2015 The Eurozone Economy is Getting Better: Cyclical Recovery Ahead (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's retail sales report indicates that preliminary Eurozone Q4 GDP data next week are likely to paint an upbeat picture of the economy. Sales rose 0.3% month-to-month in December, equivalent to 2.8% year-over-year. An upward revision to November data means that turnover increased 0.8% quarter-on- quarter, the best since the first quarter of 2005.

5 March 2018 U.S. Steel and Aluminium Tariffs Will Have Little Direct Effect on LatAm (Publication Centre)

Global economic conditions have been improving for LatAm over recent quarters.

5 March 2018 Parliament Eventually will Bring Mrs. May Back to the Real World (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister told the public to "face up to some hard facts" about Brexit in her speech on Friday, but she still clung to an unachievable vision of what Britain can hope to achieve.

5 March 2018 Consumers' Spending in Germany Probably will Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data in Germany suggest that households had a slow start to the year.

5 July. 2016 Argentina's Economy is Still Shrinking, But Growth will Come (Publication Centre)

Argentina's overdue policy tightening, aimed at dealing with the country's severe inflation and fiscal problems, is underway. Printing of ARS at the central bank, the BCRA, to finance the budget, deficit has slowed and will be curbed further. Welfare spending, which accounts for nearly half of government spending, has been put on the chopping block.

4 October 2017 Survey Data Suggest Recoveries in Brazil and Mexico are on Track (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian economy has been recovering at a decent pace in recent months. The labor market is on the mend, with the unemploymen t rate falling rapidly to 12.5% in August from 14% at the end of Q1.

4 May. 2016 The Recent Recovery of LatAm's Currencies Poses No Threat, Yet (Publication Centre)

The recovery of some key commodity prices, policy action in China, and stronger expectations that the U.S. Fed will start hiking rates later during the year, have helped reduce volatility in LatAm financial markets. Oil prices have rise by around 20% year-to-date, iron ore prices are up about 60% and copper has risen by 7%.

31 July 2018 Brazil's Solid External Accounts Offsetting Fiscal Risk, For Now (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts remain solid, despite the recent modest deterioration.

31 August 2018 Andean Economies Remain Strong, but External Threats are Significant (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday show that the Chilean economy had a weak start to the second half of the year.

30 September. 2016 August Spending is Less Worrying than the Scope for Higher In ation (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's relatively good news--we discuss the implications of the August trade data below--will be followed by rather more mixed reports today. We hope to see a partial rebound, at least, in the September Chicago PMI, but we fully expect soft August consumer spending data.

30 October 2018 Mrs. Merkel's Exit as CDU Leader is the End of an Era in EU Politics (Publication Centre)

The big news in the EZ yesterday was the announcement by German chancellor Angela Merkel that she will step down as party leader for CDU later this year, and that she will hand over the chancellorship when her term ends in 2021.

31 May 2017 Argentina's Economic Recovery Continues, but Brazil's is at Risk (Publication Centre)

The outlook for Argentina is improving. We expect economic growth to remain quite strong over the next year, despite a relatively soft start to 2017 and increasing external threats in recent weeks. The INDEC index of economic activity--a monthly proxy for GDP--is volatile, rising 1.9% month-to-month in March after a 2.6% drop in February, but the underlying trend is improving.

31 October 2018 Eurozone GDP Growth hit a Speed Bump in the Third Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of economic data in the Eurozone offered a good snapshot of the grand narrative.

4 Mar. 2015 Brazil's Central Bank Set to Respond As Inflation Fails to Slow (Publication Centre)

Brazil is now paying the price of President Rousseff's first term, which was characterized by unaffordable expansionary policies. As a result, inflation is now trending higher, forcing the BCB to tighten at a more aggressive pace than initially intended--or expected by investors--depressing business and investment confidence.

4 January 2017 Brazil's PMI Lost Momentum in Q4, but Should Stabilize Soon (Publication Centre)

Brazil's manufacturing PMI edged down to a six-month low of 45.2 in December, from 46.2 in November. This marks a disappointing end to Q4, following a steady upward trend during the first half of the year, as shown in our first chart. December's new work index fell to 45.2 from 47.7 in November, driving a slowdown in production, purchases of materials, and employment. The new export orders index also deteriorated sharply in December, falling close to its lowest level since mid-2009.

4 December 2017 Hefty Tax Cuts at Full Employment Make no Sense, but they're Coming (Publication Centre)

It's not our job to pontificate on the merits, or otherwise, of the tax cut bill from a political perspective.

21 November 2017 Chile's Economy Rebounded in Q3, but Politics Will Dominate the News (Publication Centre)

Incoming data confirm our view that the Chilean economy to rebound steadily in the second half of the year, with real GDP increasing 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, after a relatively modest 0.9% increase in Q2 and a meagre 0.1% in Q1.

29 March 2017 Banxico to Hike Tomorrow Despite the MXN's Rebound this Year (Publication Centre)

LatAm currencies have risen against the USD so far this year, easing the upward pressure on imported good prices and allowing most central banks to cut interest rates. The first direct effects of stronger currencies should be felt by firms which import high-turnover intermediate or final goods.

2 June 2017 May Payrolls Likely Solid, but Calendar Quirk will hit Wage Data (Publication Centre)

The 253K increase in May private payrolls reported by ADP yesterday was some a bit stronger than our 225K forecast. Plugging the difference between these numbers into our payroll model generates our 210K forecast for today's official number.

12 October 2017 China's Real GDP Growth Should Continue to Trend Down in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Next week is a big one for China. The five yearly Party Congress opens on Wednesday, and on Thursday, the monthly raft of activity data is published, along with Q3 GDP.

12 March 2018 January Data Point to Slower GDP Growth in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Last week's official data supported our forecast that GDP growth likely will slow further in Q1, suggesting that a May rate hike is not the sure bet that markets assume.

12 June. 2015 Industrial Output is on Track for a New Post-Crisis High This Year (Publication Centre)

Eurozone manufacturing probably stalled at the start of the second quarter. We think industrial production rose a mere 0.1% month-to-month in April, lower than the 0.4% consensus forecast, and equivalent to a 0.8% increase year-over-year. Output ex-construction was up 0.8% in Germany, but this is likely to be offset by declines in France and Italy, and a hefty 3.2% fall in Greece.

12 June 2018 Should Eurozone Investors Fear U.S. Import Tariffs on Cars? (Publication Centre)

Predictably, last weekend's G7 meeting in Canada ended in acrimony between the U.S. and its key trading partners.

12 October 2017 The MPC Hasn't Been Afraid to Dash Rate Hike Hopes in the Past (Publication Centre)

It often is argued that the MPC will raise interest rates in November--even if the economic data are not pressuring the Committee to tighten--because markets would go into a tailspin if the MPC failed to meet their expectations.

12 September 2017 Stronger Mexican Manufacturing Overshadowed by Weak Mining (Publication Centre)

Industrial activity in Mexico had a very poor start to the third quarter. Output plunged 1.0% month-to- month in July, the biggest drop since May 2015, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -1.5%, from -0.2% in June.

21 March 2018 The BRL is Flat Year-to-Date, but Politics is Driving Some Pressures (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian BRL has remained relatively stable year-to-date, following a strong rebound in January. But downward pressures have re-emerged over the last two months, as shown in our first chart.

12 September 2018 How Much is the Spanish Economy Slowing This Year (Publication Centre)

The Spanish economy remains the stand-out performer in the Eurozone, but recent data suggest that growth is slowing.

12 September 2018 Don't Expect Japanese GDP Growth to Maintain the Q2 Pace (Publication Centre)

Revisions to Japan's real GDP growth, on Monday, left Q2 blisteringly hot.

12 August. 2015 Industrial Production in Mexico is Stabilizing, Better News Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest industrial production figures, released yesterday, showed that growth is stabilizing, but it likely will not accelerate any time soon. June output rose 1.4% year-over-year, rebounding from the 1.0% contraction in May, and matching April's gain. The increase in output was relatively broad-based, with solid gains in mining and utilities.

12 Apr. 2016 Foreign Trade Set to Boost Q2 Growth, Thanks to Dollar, Oil (Publication Centre)

We fully expect to learn today that import prices rose in March for the first time since June last year. Our forecast for a 1% increase is in line with the consensus, but the margin of error is probably about plus or minus half a percent, and an increase of more than 1.2% would be the biggest in a single month in four years. Most, if not all, of the jump will be due to the rebound in oil prices.

11 May. 2016 German GDP Growth Likely Rose Strongly in the First Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production data in Germany were downbeat. Output fell 1.3% month-to-month in March, pushing the year-over-over rate down to 0.3%, from 2.0% in February. Production was held back by weakness in manufacturing and a plunge in construction, Meanwhile, energy output rebounded slightly following last month's fall. Over Q1 as a whole, though, the industrial sector performed strongly.

11 May 2017 A Poor Q1 for French Industrial Production, but Q2 will be Better (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing came roaring back at the end of Q1. Industrial production jumped 2.0% month-to- month in March, driving the year-over-year rate higher to +2.0%, from a revised -0.7% in February.

11 Mar. 2016 Significant Easing by the ECB Despite Markets' Initial Dissent (Publication Centre)

The ECB atoned for its "mistake" in December yesterday by delivering a new easing package that significantly beat markets' expectations. The central bank cut its main refi and marginal lending facility rates by 0.05 percentage points, to 0.00% and 0.25% respectively.

11 Nov. 2015 Mexico Relying on the Fed - Chile Looking for China's Recovery (Publication Centre)

Mexico's inflation remains the envy of LatAm, having consistently outperformed the rest of the region this year. Headline inflation slowed marginally to 2.5% in October, a record low and below the middle of Banxico's target, 2-to-4%, for the sixth straight month. The annual core rate increased marginally to 2.5% in October from 2.4% in September, but it remains below the target and its underlying trend is inching up only at a very slow pace. We expect it to remain subdued, closing the year around 2.7% year-over-year. Next year it will gradually increase, but will stay below 3.5% during the first half of 2016, given the lack of demand pressures and the ample output gap.

11 November. 2016 Eyes of Hurricanes Pass, then the Real Uproar Begins (Publication Centre)

Uncertainty about the U.S. economic and political outlook, following Donald Trump's presidential win, likely will cast a long shadow over EM in general and LatAm in particular. On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump argued for tearing up NAFTA and building a border wall.

11 September 2018 The Trade Wars are Neutral in China's Trade Surplus, so far (Publication Centre)

At the time of writing, Mr. Trump reportedly is finalising plans to impose tariffs of up to 25% on a further $200B of imports from China.

11 September 2017 The German Trade Surplus is Falling, but Real Wages are Rising (Publication Centre)

The seasonally adjusted trade surplus in Germany slipped to €19.6B in July, from €21.2B in June, its lowest since April, and we are confident that it has peaked for this cycle.

11 October 2017 Hard Data Suggest German GDP Growth Slowed Slightly in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Germany's nominal external surplus rebounded smartly over the summer, but real net trade looks set to be a drag on Q3 GDP growth, again. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus increased to €21.6B in August from a revised €19.3B in July.

13 Apr. 2015 Energy Output Helped French GDP to a Strong First Quarter (Publication Centre)

The French manufacturing sector remains challenged by weak end-demand. Industrial production was unchanged month-to-month in February, equivalent to a meagre 0.6% increase year-over- year; manufacturing output fell 0.8% on the same basis.

13 August 2018 Brexit's Chill Winds are Clearly Visible in the Q2 GDP Data (Publication Centre)

The Q2 GDP figures show that the economy has little underlying momentum.

15 Apr. 2016 Chile's Central Bank Holds Rates and Relaxes its Tightening Bias (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank left rates unchanged on Tuesday for the fourth consecutive month, as recent data confirmed the sluggish pace of the economic recovery and inflation edges down closer to the target range. In the statement accompanying the decision, the BCCh kept its tightening bias, saying that the normalisation of monetary policy needs to continue at a data-dependent pace, in order to achieve its 3% target.

14 November 2017 Mexico's Manufacturing Remains Resilient, but NAFTA Risk is High (Publication Centre)

LatAm's economies are starting to expand at a relatively healthy pace, inflation is more or less under control and near-term growth prospects are positive.

14 May. 2015 Upbeat GDP Data in France Partly Offset Trade Hit in Germany (Publication Centre)

Real GDP in the Eurozone rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, in line with the consensus, but slightly below our expectation for a 0.5% increase. We don't get much detail from the country-specific advance estimates but all evidence indicates that the technical hit from net trade was much larger than we expected.

15 August 2017 The German Economy Fired on All Cylinders in the First Half of 2017 (Publication Centre)

Today's advance Q2 GDP report in Germany will add evidence that the EZ economy performed strongly in the first half of 2017. We can be pretty sure that the headline will be robust. The German statistical office reports a confidential number to Eurostat for the first estimate of EZ GDP--two weeks ahead of today's data--which was a solid 0.6%.

15 August 2017 China's Boomlet Causes Volatility for Japan, Second Half to Weaken (Publication Centre)

Japanese real Q2 GDP growth surprised analysts, increasing sharply to a quarterly annualised rate of 4.0%, up from 1.0% in Q1 and much higher than the consensus, 2.5%. But its no coincidence that the jump in Japanese growth follows strong growth in China in Q1.

15 May 2017 Mexican Manufacturing set to Remain Resilient in Q2 and Q3 (Publication Centre)

Recent industrial data for Mexico point to renewed upside risks for GDP growth, despite the likely headwind to consumption from high inflation and depressed confidence.

15 January 2018 Chinese Import Growth Slowdown Paints an Overly Gloomy Picture (Publication Centre)

China's import growth in dollar terms slowed sharply to 4.5% year-over-year in December from 17.7% in November, significantly below the consensus forecast.

15 August 2018 Germany Carried the Day for the Eurozone Economy in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second EZ Q2 GDP report was slightly more upbeat than the advance estimate.

14 May 2018 Could Foreign Trade Propel Second Quarter GDP Growth to 5%? (Publication Centre)

To answer the question: Yes, growth could hit 5% in the second quarter.

14 March 2017 Commodity Prices won't Alter the Improving LatAm Picture (Publication Centre)

The medium-term outlook in most LatAm economies is improving, though economic activity is likely to remain anaemic in the near term. The gradual recovery in commodity prices is supporting resource economies, while the post-election surge in global stock prices has boosted confidence. But country-specific domestic considerations are equally relevant; the growth stories differ across the region.

13 July 2018 Why are House Sale Instructions Starting to Rise? (Publication Centre)

A dearth of properties for sale has helped to ensure that house prices have continued to rise since the Brexit vote, despite weaker demand. But now, signs are emerging that demand and supply are coming closer to balance

13 Jan. 2015 Ageing and Export Dependency go Hand-in Hand in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Population ageing is, arguably, the most important long-term socioeconomic trend in the Eurozone. The demographic transition did not end in the 1970s as fertility hit replacement levels, contrary to the prediction by the stylised models of population change.

13 August 2018 Japan's Households Finally Stage a Come Back, Time for a BoJ Hike? (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP growth came roaring back in Q2, thanks to a strong rebound in private consumption, and an acceleration in business capex.

13 March 2017 A Slowdown in the U.K. Will Dent the German Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Germany's external surplus remained resilient at the start of the year. Data on Friday showed that the seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose marginally to €18.5B in January, from a revised €18.3B in December.

13 November 2017 Chinese Producer Price Increases Are Finally Slowing (Publication Centre)

Overall, the Chinese October data paint a picture of continued weakness in trade, with PPI inflation still high but the rate of increase finally slowing.

14 July 2017 Ignore the Headline Trade Numbers, Chinese Growth is Slowing (Publication Centre)

China's headline trade numbers appear to paint a picture of an economy in rude health but scratch the surface and the story is quite different. The trade surplus rose to$42.8B in June from $40.8B in May, hitting consensus.

14 February 2018 Look for a Disappointing Q4 German GDP Report Today (Publication Centre)

Today's Eurozone data will provide further details on what happened in Q4. Advance data suggest that industrial production rose a modest 0.1% month- to-month, lifting the year-over-year rate to 4.3% in December, from 3.9% in November.

14 August 2017 China's Slowdown Surprised Japan, Inventories to Boost Q2 GDP (Publication Centre)

Japanese domestic demand probably strengthened in Q2, with both private consumption and fixed investment accelerating. Trade and inventories are the key swing components for GDP growth.

11 Mar. 2016 Brace for Volatility in the Trade Data as Oil Prices Swing (Publication Centre)

If Brent oil prices remain at their current $41 through the end of the second quarter--a big ask, we know, but you have to start with something--the average price of petroleum products imported into the U.S. will rise at an annualized rate of about 70% from their first quarter level.

11 Mar. 2015 Fed Rate Hike Fears Now the Key Worry For LatAm Central Banks (Publication Centre)

Inflation appears no longer to be an issue for Mexican policymakers. The annual headline rate slowed to 3.0% year-over-year in February from 3.1% in January, in the middle of the central bank's target range, for the first time since May 2006.

1 August 2018 Mexico's Q2 GDP Dips, Due to Weakness in the Industrial Sector (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q2 GDP in Mexico confirmed that the economy lost momentum in recent months.

1 August 2017 Chinese Second Half Looking Increasingly Stagflationary (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI, published on Monday, implies the industrial complex has maintained momentum going into Q3. The official manufacturing PMI moderated slightly to 51.4 in July from 51.7 in June. The July reading was unchanged from the average in Q2 and only modestly down from the 51.6 in Q1.

1 Apr. 2015 Tightening Bias Remains as Chile's Inflation Forecast is Increased (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic sector survey, released on Monday, provides further evidence that the cyclical recovery in the economy continues, albeit at a moderate pace. On the demand side, the rebound is still in place, with retail sales jumping 2.0% month-to-month in February and the underlying trend firm.

1 Dec. 2015 The Real Net Trade Drag on U.K. Growth is Still to Come (Publication Centre)

It's tempting to conclude from the third quarter's GDP figures, which showed output rising 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, despite a record drag from net trade, that the U.K. economy is comfortably weathering sterling's appreciation. But a closer look at the data shows the net trade drag is the counterparty to some erratic inventory movements. The real net trade hit is still to come.

1 December 2017 The BoK Jumps on the Global Tightening Wave. Rocky Ride Ahead (Publication Centre)

President Moon was elected earlier this year on a promise to rebalance the economy toward domestic demand and reduce export dependency. It's not the first time politicians have received such a mandate.

1 Sept. 2015 Manufacturing Woes Changing as Oil Hit Eases but Dollar Gains Bite (Publication Centre)

The pressures on U.S. manufacturers are changing. For most of this year to date, the problem has been the collapse in capital spending in the oil business, which has depressed overall investment spending, manufacturing output and employment. Oil exploration is extremely capital-intensive, so the only way for companies in the sector to save themselves when the oil prices collapsed was to slash capex very quickly.

1 June 2018 China's PMIs Signal Another Rise in PPI In ation in May (Publication Centre)

The return of Chinese PPI inflation in 2016 helped to stabilise equities after the boom-bust of the previous year.

1 December. 2016 ISM Set to Show that Manufacturing is Recovering, Albeit Slowly (Publication Centre)

We have lost count of the number of times the drop in the ISM manufacturing survey, in the wake of the plunge in oil prices, was a harbinger o f recession across the whole economy. It wasn't, because the havoc wreaked in the industrial economy by the collapse in capital spending in the oil sector was contained.

09 Feb. 2016 Investors Should Brace for Poor German GDP Data this Week (Publication Centre)

German Q4 GDP data this week will give little comfort to investors searching for signs of a resilient economy in the face of increased market volatility. The consensus expects unchanged GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with solid and stable survey data. But downbeat industrial production and retail sales data point to notable downside risk.

08 Mar. 2016 Will German Manufacturing Continue to Flatline in Q1? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German factory orders data suggest that manufacturing remained weak in the beginning of Q1. New orders fell 0.1% month-to-month in January, though the year-over-year rate rose to 1.1% from a revised -2.2% in December. The small monthly decline was due to a fall in domestic orders; this offset an increase in export orders to other Eurozone economies.

05 May. 2015 Eurozone Q1 GDP beat the U.S. and the U.K., But It Won't Last (Publication Centre)

Advance data indicate that Q1 annualized GDP growth in the U.S. was a trivial 0.2%. And in the U.K., annualized growth is estimated to have slowed to 1.2%, from 2.4% in Q4.

04 Feb. 2016 EZ Consumers' Spending Stalled in Q4, but Should Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday suggest Eurozone consumers' spending rebounded towards the end of Q4. Retail sales rose 0.3% month-to-month in December, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.4%, from a revised 1.6% in November. A +0.3 percentage point net revision to the month-to-month data added to the optimism, but was not enough to prevent a slowdown over the quarter as a whole.

01 Mar. 2016 Worst is Over for Manufacturers, but no Real Rebound Yet (Publication Centre)

The worst is over for manufacturers, we think. The three major forces depressing activity in the sector last year--namely, the strong dollar, the slowdown in China, and the collapse in capital spending in the oil sector--will be much less powerful this year.

05 May. 2015 No Signs of Surging Consumption, But Much too Soon for Gloom (Publication Centre)

We have argued for some time that investors began much too soon to look for stronger consumption in the wake of the drop in gasoline prices. Typically, turning points in gas prices trigger turning points in the rate of growth of retail sales with a lag of six or seven months.

06 August. 2015 Stabilisation, not Acceleration, in German New Orders Growth (Publication Centre)

We are wary of a downside surprise in today's German orders, due to weak advance data from the engineering organisation, VDMA. We think factory orders fell 0.5% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate slightly lower to 4.5% in June from 4.7% in May. This is noticeably worse than the market expects, but the consensus forecast for a 0.3% rise implies a jump in the year-over-year rate, which is difficult to reconcile with leading indicators.

07 May. 2015 Inflation Expectations, not Greece, are Pushing EZ Yields Higher (Publication Centre)

Even though Greece managed to avert default yesterday by paying €200M in interest to the IMF, our assumption is that the country remains on the brink of running out of money. Our view is supported by the government's decision to expropriate local authority funds, and reports that the government's domestic liabilities, excluding wages and pensions, are not being met.

07 Jan. 2016 Uncertainty Over China's Currency Intentions Set to Persist (Publication Centre)

The 2.4% depreciation of the yuan over the past month has not been quite as big as the 3.0% move on August 11, and it's not a big enough shift to make a material difference to aggregate U.S. export performance. Market nerves, then, seem to us to be largely a reflection of fear of what might come next. China's real effective exchange rate--the trade-weighted index adjusted for relative inflation rates--has risen relentlessly over the past decade, and to restore competitiveness to, say, its 2011 level, would require a 20%-plus devaluation.

06 October. 2016 ISM Rebound Points to Stronger Payrolls Later in the Fall (Publication Centre)

The huge rebound in September's ISM non- manufacturing survey, reported yesterday, strongly supports our view that the August drop was more noise than signal.

1 September 2017 Banxico's QIR Report is Upbeat, But Rates are on Hold Until 2018 (Publication Centre)

Banxico's Quarterly Inflation Report--QIR--for Q2 2017, published this week, confirmed that the central bank has become more upbeat about the economic recovery and the outlook for inflation. Banxico believes that the balance of risks to inflation and growth are neutral.

10 April 2018 China's Capital Outflows Remain Modest, but will Pick up (Publication Centre)

China's FX reserves were relatively stable in March, with the minimal increase driven by currency valuation effects.

11 Feb. 2015 Chile's Outlook Improving Slowly - Oil Price are a Clear Tailwind (Publication Centre)

The resilience and adaptability that the Chilean economy has shown over previous cycles has been tested repeatedly over the last year. Uncertainty on the political front, falling metal prices, and growing concerns about growth in China have been the key factors behind expectations of slowing GDP growth.

11 December 2018 China's Trade Surplus is Set to Rebuild Next Year (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus appears modestly to be rebuilding, edging up to $34.0B in November, on our adjustment, from $33.3B in October. The recent trough was $24.B, in March.

11 April 2018 Brazil's Inflation Fell Rapidly in March, Chile's Economy Rebounding (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday reinforced our forecast of a further rate cut in Brazil next month.

11 Feb. 2016 March is Still in Play, but Only if Data and Markets Cooperate (Publication Centre)

If Fed Chair Yellen's objective yesterday was to deliver studied ambiguity in her Testimony--and we believe it was--she succeeded. She offered plenty to both sides of the rate debate. For the hawks, she noted that unemployment is now "...in line with the median of FOMC participants' most recent estimates of its longer-run normal level", and that inflation is still expected to return to the 2% target, "...once oil and import prices stop falling".

11 January 2017 Import Substitution Will Be Modest, Despite Sterling's Depreciation (Publication Centre)

A year has now elapsed since sterling began its precipitous descent, and the trade data still have not improved. Net trade subtracted 0.9 percentage points from year-over-year growth in GDP in Q3. And while the trade deficit of £2.0B in October was the smallest since May, this followed extraordinarily large deficits in the previous two months. In fact, the trade deficit has been on a slightly deteriorating trend over the last year, as our first chart shows, and we expect today's data to show that the deficit re-widened to about £3.5B in November.

11 June. 2015 Fall in Energy Output Will Weigh on French GDP growth in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Swings in energy output continue to add volatility to French manufacturing data. Industrial production fell 0.9% month-to-month in April, equivalent to a 0.1% fall year-over-year. This was a weak report, even if we factor in the 0.3% upward revision to the March numbers,but it was also he avily tainted by a 10.8% month-to-month collapse in oil refining.

11 July 2018 China's Officials Aren't Worried About the Uptick in PPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

China's PPI inflation rose again in June, to 4.7%, from 4.1% in May.

11 January 2018 November Data Point to a Slight Slowdown in GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's deluge of output and trade data broadly supported our call that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth likely slowed to 0.3% in Q4, from 0.4% in Q3.

10 October 2018 Did German GDP Growth Crash in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The hard data now point to a horrendous Q3 GDP print in Germany, which almost surely will constrain the advance EZ GDP print released on October 30.

10 November. 2016 Market Reaction to Trump Shows Britain is No Longer a Safe-haven (Publication Centre)

Donald Trump's victory casts a shadow of political uncertainty over what had appeared to be a decent outlook for the U.S economy. The U.K.'s trade and financial ties with the U.S., however, are small enough to mean that any downturn on the other side of the Atlantic will have little impact on Britain.

10 January 2018 German Industrial Output Growth Won't Accelerate Much Further (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in Germany were stellar, but base effects mean that the story for Q4 as a whole is less upbeat.

10 December 2018 EZ Consumption Slowed Sharply in Q3, is a Q4 Rebound Coming? (Publication Centre)

Friday was a busy day in the Eurozone. The final and detailed GDP report confirmed that growth in the euro area slowed to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.4% in Q2, with the year-over-year rate slipping by 0.6 percentage points to 1.6%, just 0.1pp below the first estimate.

10 April 2018 Q1 was a write-off for the German economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's trade data added to the evidence that momentum in the German economy slowed sharply at the start of the year.

10 July 2017 Robust Q2 GDP Growth in the Eurozone Likely are in the Bag (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production reports in the Eurozone were sizzling. In Germany, headline output rose 1.2% month-to-month in May--after a downwardly-revised 0.7% rise in April--which pushed the year-over-year rate up to a six-year high of 4.9%.

10 July 2018 Should we be Excited About the Rebound in EZ Investor Sentiment (Publication Centre)

It has been mostly doom and gloom for euro area investors in equities and credit this year.

10 November 2017 Data to Confirm Production Picked Up but Net Trade Hit Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

September's industrial production figures likely will not surprise markets today. We look for a 0.3% month-to-month rise in production, matching the consensus and the ONS assumption in the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP.

10 May. 2016 Jump in German Factor Orders do Not Signal the Start of an Upturn (Publication Centre)

New business in German manufacturing ended the first quarter on a strong note. Factory orders rose 1.9% month-to-month in March, above the consensus 0.6%, and net revisions to the February data were +0.4 percentage points. The rise in new orders was exclusively due to a 4.3% increase in export orders, which offset a 1.2% fall in domestic orders. These are strong numbers, but the details suggest that mean reversion will push the headline down next month.

10 May 2017 German GDP Growth Likely Accelerated in the First Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in Germany cemented the story of a strong start to the year, despite the disappointing headlines. Industrial production slipped 0.4% month-to-month in March, pushing the year-over-year rate down to +1.9% from a revised +2.0% in February.

15 November 2017 Full-Year GDP Growth in the EZ Will be Close to 2.5% in 2017 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second batch of Q3 GDP data in the euro area provided further evidence of a strong and stable cyclical upturn in the economy.

12 September. 2016 More Poor Data Signal Slow Start to Q3 (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data added to the evidence that the German economy stumbled in July. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus slipped to €19.4B, from a revised €21.4B in June.

2 Nov. 2015 Media and Market Biases Leading Investors up the Wrong Path (Publication Centre)

We can't recall a time when we have disagreed so strongly with the consensus narrative, in both the media and the markets, about the state of the U.S. economy. We think both investors and the commentariat are too bearish on growth and too complacent about inflation risks, and as a result, insufficiently worried about the speed with which interest rates will rise over the next couple of years.

2 May 2018 The BoK is on a Mission, and will Hike in May, it's not About Inflation (Publication Centre)

We expect the BoK to hike this month, believing that it's necessary to curtail household debt growth now, in order to prevent a sharper economic slowdown as the Fed hiking cycle continues, China slows, and trade risks unfold.

2 Mar. 2015 Falling Confidence, High Inflation, Rising Rates: Brazil in a Mess (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic data last week were appalling. The IPCA-15 price index rose 1.3% month-to-month, the fastest pace in 12 years, pushing the annual rate to 7.4% in mid-February from 6.7% in mid-January,well above the 6.5% upper bound of the BCB's target range.

2 November 2017 China's "War on Pollution" will Take its Toll on GDP Growth in Q4-Q1 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.0 in October, continuing the sideways trend this year.

2 November. 2016 Brazil Industrial Output Remains Sluggish, but Q4 will be Better (Publication Centre)

Brazil's September industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed the message from survey data that the sector stabilized towards the end of summer. Output rose 0.5 month-to-month, and August output was revised up by 0.3 percentage points.

20 Feb. 2015 Colombia's Strong Domestic Activity is Neutralizing Oil Price Hit (Publication Centre)

Colombia's oil industry--one of the key drivers of the country's economic growth over the last decade--has been stumbling over recent months, raising concerns about the country's growth prospects. But the recent weakness of the mining sector is in stark contrast with robust internal demand and solid domestic production.

20 December 2017 China's Anti-Pollution Curbs are On, Is it Working too Well? (Publication Centre)

We highlighted in previous reports that the Chinese authorities appear to be making a serious pivot from GDPism--the rigid targeting of real GDP growth-- toward environmentalism, with pollution targets now taking centre stage.

2 November. 2016 Producer Price Rises Will Bear Down on Domestic Demand (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey indicates that producers are not shying away from passing on to their customers the higher costs stemming from sterling's depreciation.

2 June 2017 Expect Slower BCB Easing as the Political Mess Raises Risks (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank again matched expectations on Wednesday, cutting the Selic rate by 100 basis points to 10.25%, without bias. The COPOM s aid that a "moderate reduction of the pace of monetary easing" would be "adequate".

2 July 2018 Chile's Solid Domestic Demand Will Help Against External Jitters (Publication Centre)

Mexico's election results are not available as we go to press, but we're expecting a comfortable win for the left-wing populist candidate, AMLO.

19 September 2018 Tariffs Could have been Worse Have we Reached Peak Pain for this Year (Publication Centre)

Mr. Trump laid out plans yesterday to impose a new 10% tariff on a further $200B-worth of imports from China, to be levied from next week.

19 September 2016 Construction Investment Will Boost EZ GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Construction data in the Eurozone usually don't attract much attention, but today's July report will provide encouraging news, compared with recent poor manufacturing data. We think construction output leapt 2.1% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 2.3%, from 0.7% in June. This strong start to the third quarter was due mainly to a jump in non-residential building activity in France and Germany.

19 Oct. 2015 No Slowdown Yet in EZ Car Sales, But Next Year Will be Different (Publication Centre)

Car sales continue to offer solid support for consumption spending in the Eurozone. Growth of new car registrations in the euro area fell trivially to 10.6% year-over-year in September, from 10.8% in August, consistent with a stable trend. Surging sales in the periphery are the key driver of the impressive performance, with new registrations rising 22.1% and 17.1% in Spain and Italy respectively, and surging 30% in Portugal. Favorable base effects mean that rapid growth rates will continue in Q4, supporting consumers' spending.

2 August 2017 Inflation to Erode Chinese Demand in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI rebounded to 51.1 in July from 50.4 in June, soundly beating the consensus for no change. The PMIs are seasonally adjusted but the data are much less volatile on our adjustment model. On our adjustment, the headline has averaged 50.9 so far this year, modestly higher than in the second half of last year.

2 August 2018 The Door for a Bank of Korea Rate Hike in August Closes Further (Publication Centre)

The past two days have seen a slew of data that should keep the hawks in the Bank of Korea at bay during the Board's meeting at the end of this month.

2 January 2018 While we Were Out... (Publication Centre)

Most of the data were consistent with the idea that fourth quarter growth will be a two-part story, with real strength in domestic final demand partly offset by substantial drags from net foreign trade and inventories.

2 January 2018 The Economy Won't Spring Back to Life in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The economy slowed less than we expected in 2017.

2 Dec. 2015 Brazil's Q3 Data Confirm The Worst Recession On Record (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession is getting uglier. Real GDP in Brazil fell 1.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, much worse than expected, though marginally less terrible than the downwardly revised 2.1% contraction in Q2. Year-over-year, the economy plunged by 4.5% in the third quarter, down from -3.0% in Q2, and -2.5% in the first half. The disappointment was widespread in Q3; though rising mining output was a positive, the underlying trend in mining is still falling. The key story here, though, is that the economy has sunk into its worst slump since the Great Depression.

20 July 2018 Japan's Trade Balance Continues to Whipsaw Where is it Going Next (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus has whipsawed recently. Sharp changes are to be expected in January and February, due to the shifting timing of Chinese New Year.

20 July. 2016 Venezuela's Crisis is Escalating, Made Worse by Low Oil Prices (Publication Centre)

Venezuela is on the brink o f economic and social collapse. Looting, food scarcity, power rationing, and other problems have become rampant. This week, Venezuela's government allowed citizens to flock across the Colombian border to shop for food and medicine, for the second time this month. Last year, Venezuela's President Maduro shut the border in a bid to crack down on smuggling of subsidized products.

21 July 2017 Venezuela's Economic and Political Crisis Deteriorates, Risks is Soaring (Publication Centre)

The risk of political change in Venezuela is coming to a boil, following President Maduro's plans for a new constituent assembly that has the power to rewrite the constitution and scrap the existing National Assembly.

21 August 2018 Chile's Fundamentals are Improving This Likely Will Offset External Risks (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q2 GDP report, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy gathered strength in the first half of the year, consolidating a strong recovery that started in Q3 2017.

21 August 2017 Chile's Economy is Improving, but Expect Only Modest Growth in H2 (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q2 GDP report, released on Friday, confirmed that the economy gathered momentum in recent months, following an alarmingly weak start to the year.

21 June 2017 Japan will Grow this Year, Despite its Structural Hurdles (Publication Centre)

Abenomics has had its successes in changing the structure of Japan. Notably, large numbers of women have gone back to work and corporations have started paying dividends. These are by no means small victories. But overall, the macroeconomy is essentially the same as when Shinzo Abe became prime minister.

21 June 2018 As Trade Tensions Mount, will the PBoC Stabilise the RMB Basket (Publication Centre)

As promised, Mr. Trump retaliated earlier this week against China's weekend retaliation, after his refusal to back down on the initial tariffs on $50B-worth of imports of Chinese goods, on top of the steel and aluminium tariffs first announced back in March.

21 March 2017 The Debt Ceiling is Back, but no Crisis Likely Until the Fall (Publication Centre)

The federal debt ceiling was re-imposed last week, with no fanfare, and no reaction in the markets. All eyes were focussed instead on the Fed's rate hike and Chair Yellen's press conference.

21 Mar. 2016 Monetary Policy Divergence in LatAm Despite Calm in Markets (Publication Centre)

No surprises from Chile's central bank last week, after leaving rates unchanged for the third consecutive month, in the light of recent data confirming the sluggish pace of the economic recovery. In the communiqué accompanying the decision, the BCCh kept their tightening bias, signaling that rates will rise in the near term.

21 June 2018 Business Surveys Set to Suffer from Tariffs, but the Hit will be Uneven (Publication Centre)

The startling jump in the Philly Fed index in May, when it rose 11.2 points to a 12-month high, seemed at first sight to be a response to fading tensions over global trade.

21 Apr. 2016 All Eyes on the Details of QE and TLTROs in Today's ECB Meeting (Publication Centre)

The ECB will keep its refinancing and deposit rates unchanged today, at 0.0% and -0.4% respectively. We also think the pace of QE will be held at €80B per month. Attention will turn instead to the details and implementation of the measures unveiled last month. Corporate bonds will be added to QE at the end of the second quarter, and monthly purchases of about €5-to-€10B per month are a realistic assumption.

20 September. 2016 Homebuilders Need to Catch up to Rising Sales - Expect a Q4 Surge (Publication Centre)

The information available to date--which is still very incomplete--suggests that new housing construction will decline in the third quarter. This would be the second straight decline, following the 6.1% drop in Q2. We aren't expecting such a large fall in the third quarter, but it is nonetheless curious that housing investment--construction, in other words--is falling at a time when new home sales have risen sharply.

20 May. 2015 Slowly Does it For Q2 Upturn In Eurozone Inflation (Publication Centre)

Final inflation in the Eurozone was confirmed at 0.0% year-over-year in April, up slightly from -0.1% in March. The recovery since the trough in January has been driven mostly by a reduced drag from lower energy prices, a trend which should continue in the second quarter.

20 March 2018 Up or down for the EZ current account surplus in 2018? (Publication Centre)

The euro area's trade advantage with the rest of the world slipped at the start of the year.

15 November 2018 From #Euroboom to #Eurogloom What Next for the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second estimate of GDP confirmed that Eurozone growth slowed significantly in Q3.

20 November 2018 Chile's Economy Shifted into Lower Gear in Q3, is the Outlook Brighter (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q3 GDP report, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy lost momentum in the last quarter.

20 November 2018 Japan's Trade will Come Back into Balance, but not Until the New Year (Publication Centre)

Looking through recent supply disruptions, Japan's adjusted trade balance seems likely to remain in the red until the new year.

20 September 2018 The EU Won't be Tariffed, at Least Not This Year (Publication Centre)

Mr. Trump fired the shot everyone was expecting this week with a 10% tariff on $200B-worth of Chinese goods, and a pledge to lift the rate to 25% on January 1.

20 September 2016 The Recycling of the EZ's Current Account Surplus Continues (Publication Centre)

The external surplus in the EZ economy slipped in July. The seasonally-adjusted current account surplus dropped to €21.0B, from a revised €29.5B in June, hit by an increase in the current transfers deficit, and a falling trade surplus. The recent increase in the transfers deficit partly is due to the migrant deal with Turkey, and we expect it to remain elevated.

20 October 2017 The Spanish Economy is Resilient to the Chaos in Catalonia, for Now (Publication Centre)

The Spanish economy has been punching above its weight in the current business cycle. Real GDP growth has trended at about 0.8% quarter-on-quarter since 2015, far outpacing the other major EZ economies.

19 November 2018 A Hawkish Banxico Points to Further Hikes, Everything Depends on AMLO (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers voted last Thursday to hike the main rate by 25bp to 8.0%, the highest since early 2009.

20 June 2018 Monetary Policy Divergence Will Boost the EZ Current Account (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's current account surplus slipped at the start of Q2, falling to €28.4B in April from an upwardly-revised €32.8B in March.

16 October 2017 China's Import Rebound Overstates Domestic Demand Strength (Publication Centre)

The Chinese trade surplus was reasonably stable on our seasonal adjustment in September, falling to $27.5B from $29.7B in August.

16 November. 2016 Look Behind Falling Utility Output to See the Manufacturing Gain (Publication Centre)

Falling demand for utility energy, thanks to yet another very warm month, relative to normal, will depress the headline industrial production number for October, due today. We look for a 21⁄2% drop in utility energy production, enough to subtract a quarter point from total industrial output.

16 November 2018 The EU's New Car Emissions Rules Cast a Long Shadow over the EZ (Publication Centre)

Economic data in the Eurozone auto sector remain under the influence of the aftershock from the EU's new emissions regulation--WLTP-- introduced in September.

16 September 2016 Evidence of a Slowdown in EZ New Car Sales is Mounting (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data on EZ car sales added to the evidence that consumers' spending is slowing. We now reckon sales will rise by 1% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, after gains averaging 2.6% in the first half of the year.

17 Dec. 2014 Sentiment Surges, but Russian Rout Forces a Reminder of 1998 (Publication Centre)

With Russia and some other emerging economies now in full panic mode, the financial market story is sharply divided between two narratives. Either the plunge in global energy prices acts as positive catalyst by boosting real incomes and allowing most central banks to run easier monetary policy or it is a sign that risk assets are about to hit a deflationary wall.

17 January 2017 Will Policymakers Act to Stop Sterling Falling Further? (Publication Centre)

Sterling weakened further yesterday as anxiety grew that PM Theresa May will indicate she is seeking a "clean and hard Brexit" in a speech today. This could mean the U.K. leaves the EU's single market and customs union, in order to control immigration, shake off the jurisdiction of the European Court and have a free hand in trade negotiations with other countries.

17 Feb. 2016 Behind Utility-Hit Headlines, the Industrial Sector is Growing, Jus (Publication Centre)

If the collapse in oil sector capex and the strong dollar were going to push the industrial economy into recession, it probably would have started by now

17 Feb. 2015 The Eurozone's trade surplus is surging, and more upside ahead (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's trade data showed that the Eurozone's external balance continues to improve markedly. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus in the euro area rose to €23.3B in December, a new all-time high, from a revised €21.6B in November.

16 March 2018 New Car Sales in the Eurozone are Solid, But Italy is a Grim Outlier (Publication Centre)

Growth in new EZ car sales slipped last month, following a strong start to the year. New registrations rose 4.4% year-over-year in February, slowing from a 8.7% rise in January.

16 Mar. 2016 Can Yellen Reconcile Lower Dots, Rates on Hold and Rising Inflation? (Publication Centre)

The further improvement in labor market conditions and the jump in core inflation means that the economic data have given the Fed all the excuse it needs to raise rates today. But the chance of a hike is very small, not least because the fed funds future puts the odds of an action today at just 4%, and the Fed has proved itself very reluctant to surprise investors-- at least, in a bad way--in the past.

15 September 2017 Brazil Started Q3 Strongly, and the Recovery Should Continue in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's July economic activity index, released yesterday, showed that the economy started the second half of the year strongly. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, rose 0.4% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.4%, from -0.4% in June.

15 November. 2016 EZ GDP Growth Likely was Stable in Q3, in Line With First Estimate (Publication Centre)

Investors face a busy EZ calendar today, but the second estimate of Q3 GDP, and the advance GDP data in Germany, likely will receive most attention. Yesterday's industrial production report in the Eurozone was soft, but it won't force a downward GDP revision, as we had feared.

15 November 2018 Japan's Q3 GDP Drops Q4 will be Better but Trends are Deteriorating (Publication Centre)

Japanese leading indicators point to a slowdown, and the trend over this volatile year is emerging as firmly downward.

16 April 2018 Chinese New Year Holiday Effects Spill over into the March Trade Data (Publication Centre)

The holiday effects are at it again. C hina's trade balance dropped to a deficit of $5.0B in March, from a surplus of $33.5B in February, confounding expectations for a surplus of $27.5B.

16 Feb. 2015 Solid GDP data, but investment needs to pick up to sustain the momentum (Publication Centre)

Normal service was resumed in the euro area with Friday's GDP reports pointing to solid growth in Germany amid weakness in Italy and France. Real GDP in the Eurozone grew 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the final three months of last year, up from 0.2% in Q3.

16 Jan. 2015 Currency Wars Turn Medieval As the SNB Abandons CHF Peg (Publication Centre)

CHF traders, and the rest of the market, were blindsided yesterday by the decision of the SNB to scrap the 1.20 EURCHF floor. The SNB has already boosted its balance sheet to about 85% of GDP to prevent the CHF from appreciating, and with the ECB on the brink of adding sovereign bonds to its QE program, the peg was simply indefensible.

16 February 2018 French Unemployment Plunged in Q4, and will Fall Further this (Publication Centre)

The French labour market improved much more than we expected in Q4. The headline unemployment rate plunged to 8.9%, from a downwardly-revised 9.6% in Q3.

16 February 2017 Should investors rebalance toward EZ equities? (Publication Centre)

Increasingly, we are hearing equity strategists argue that investors should rebalance their portfolios toward EZ equities. On the surface, this looks like sound advice. Commodity prices have exited their depression, factory gate inflation pressures are rising, and global manufacturing output is picking up. These factors tell a bullish story for margins and earnings at large cap industrial and materials equities in the euro area.

17 July 2017 Eurozone Consumers' Demand for New Cars is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Consumers' demand for cars slowed in the Eurozone at the end of the second quarter. New car registrations in the euro area rose 3.0% year-over-year in June, slowing dramatically from a 10.3% rise in May.

17 July 2018 Are we Convinced by China's Q2 Official GDP Growth Story (Publication Centre)

Chinese real GDP growth reportedly edged down to 6.7% year-over-year in Q2, from 6.8% in Q1.

18 October. 2016 Headline Inflation is Set to Soar, Rendezvous With Core Next Spring (Publication Centre)

In September last year, headline CPI inflation stood at exactly zero. Today, we expect to see a 1.5% print, thanks mostly to the fading impact of falling energy prices.

18 May 2018 Second Quarter Growth Started Strongly, but a Long Way to go (Publication Centre)

The half-way point of the quarter is not, alas, the half-way point of the data flow for the quarter.

18 July. 2016 EZ Car Registrations Continue to Grow Briskly, But Will Slow Soon (Publication Centre)

Growth in new EZ car registrations slowed last month, but the data continue to tell a story of strong consumer demand for new cars. New registrations in the euro area rose 6.9% y/y in June, down from a 16.9% jump in May, mainly due to slowing growth in France. New registrations in the euro area's second largest economy rose a mere 0.8% year-over-year, after a 22% surge in May.

19 Apr. Are the Treasury's Brexit Calculations Plausible? (Publication Centre)

The Treasury waded in to the Brexit debate yesterday with a 200-page report concluding that U.K. GDP would be 6.2% lower in 2030 than otherwise if Britain left the E.U. and entered into a bilateral trade deal similar to the one recently agreed by Canada. All long-term economic projections should come with health warnings, and the Treasury's precise numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt.

19 December 2016 How Far Will Eurozone Headline Inflation Rise in Q1? (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in the Eurozone nudged higher last month. Friday's final CPI report showed that inflation rose to 0.6% year-over-year in November, from 0.5% in October, in line with the initial estimate. The food, alcohol and tobacco component was the key driver of the increase.

19 June. 2015 The Eurozone's External Surplus will be the World's Biggest, Soon (Publication Centre)

Solid trade data for April indicate a strong start to Q2 for the Eurozone's external balance, though a €3.2B fall in German net factor income will weigh on the primary income number.

19 June 2018 The Continuity of Colombia's Free- Market Model is Assured (Publication Centre)

Iván Duque, the conservative candidate for the Democratic Centre Party, won the presidential election held in Colombia on Sunday.

19 December 2017 The Rise in Oil Prices will Damage Japan's Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus is set to fall in coming months, as domestic demand remains robust, while recent oil price increases will be a drag, lifting imports.

19 March 2018 Argentina's Recovery Continues, but the Rebound is Facing Setbacks (Publication Centre)

Argentina's Recovery Continues, but the Rebound is Facing Setbacks

18 July 2018 Peru's Economy Rebounded in the First Half Will the Strength Continue (Publication Centre)

Data released over the weekend confirm that the Peruvian economy enjoyed a strong second quarter. The economic activity index rose 6.4% year-over-year in May, well above market expectations, and up from 3.2% in Q1.

17 May 2018 Japan has Paid for Breaking the Speed Limit in H1 Last Year (Publication Centre)

The Japanese GDP report yesterday contained substantial revisions to Q4. We had expected the Q1 contraction, but the revisions recast the health of the recovery, making the domestic demand performance look much less impressive recently, with the economy struggling since the burst of growth in the first half last year.

17 July. 2015 A Dovish Mr. Draghi Assures Markets the ECB is Here to Help (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB press conference confirmed our view that Mr. Draghi is the periphery's friend, not enemy. Crucially, the central bank agreed to increase emergency liquidity assistance--ELA--to Greek banks by €900M. This is consistent tent with the agreement by the Eurogroup to give Greece €7B bridge financing, and shows the ECB is ready to act on the back of only a temporary truce between Greece and the EU. The increase in ELA is modest, and we doubt a painful restructuring of the banking system can be avoided. But with Greek bond yields falling, the available pool of collateral will go up, allowing the central bank to provide further relief in coming weeks.

17 July 2018 Will Price Changes Spare the Blushes of EZ Net Trade in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The euro area's trade surplus slipped further mid- way through the second quarter; falling to a 15-month low of €16.9B in May, from a downwardly-revised €18.0B in April, and extending its descent from last year's peak of nearly €24.0B.

17 Nov. 2015 The Market is Underestimating How Quickly EZ Inflation is Rising (Publication Centre)

Final October inflation data surprised to the upside yesterday, consistent with our view that inflation will rise faster than the market and ECB expect in coming months. Inflation rose to 0.1% year-over-year in from -0.1% in September, lifted mainly by higher food inflation due to surging prices for fruits and vegetables. This won't last, but base effects will push the year-over-year rate in energy prices sharply higher into the first quarter, and core inflation is climbing too. Core inflation rose to 1.1% in October from 0.9% in September, higher than the consensus forecast, 1.0%.

17 October 2017 The rebound in EZ trade surplus is ruse (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report showed that the Eurozone's external surplus recovered ground over the summer, but we don't think the rebound will last long.

18 July 2017 Will Foreign Trade be a Drag on Second Quarter GDP Growth? (Publication Centre)

Markets usually ignore the monthly import price data, presumably because they are far removed, especially at the headline level, from the consumer price numbers the Fed targets.

18 July 2017 The Conundrum of Germany's Huge Current Account Surplus (Publication Centre)

No subject in the EZ economy is a source of more dispute than Germany's ballooning current account surplus. The Economist recently identified he German surplus as a problem for the world economy.

18 December 2017 The Large Decline in the EZ Trade Surplus is a Sign of More to Come (Publication Centre)

The euro area's external surplus dipped at the start of Q4.

18 May. 2016 The EZ Trade Surplus is Stalling, but Net Exports will Lift Q2 GDP (Publication Centre)

Eurozone inflation pressures remained subdued in April. Today's final data likely will show that inflation fell to -0.2% year-over-year in April, from 0.0% in March. The main story in this report will be the reversal in services inflation from the March surge, which was due to the early Easter.

18 August 2017 Japan's Trade Surplus Bounced. Exports to U.S. Strengthen (Publication Centre)

Japan's July adjusted trade surplus rebounded to ¥337.4B from ¥87.3B in June, far above consensus. On our seasonal adjustment, the rebound is slightly smaller but only because we saw less of a drop in June.

20 Oct. 2015 Slowdown in U.K. GDP Growth to Dent EZ Exports Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Our new Chief U.K. economist, Samuel Tombs, initiated his coverage yesterday with a sombre, non-consensus, message on the economy. Headwinds from fiscal tightening and net trade will weigh on GDP growth next year, but the BoE will likely have to look through such cyclical weakness, and hike as inflation creeps higher. An intensified drag from net trade in the U.K. will, other things equal, benefit the Eurozone. But a slowdown in U.K. GDP growth still poses a notable risk to euro area headline export growth, especially in the latter part of next year.

22 October 2018 The EZ External Surplus is Being Boosted by Services Exports (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded over the summer, reversing its sharp decline at the start of Q3.

23 Oct. 2015 Manufacturing Slowdown is Set to Intensify as Exports Drop Further (Publication Centre)

The woes of the manufacturing sector are likely to intensify over the next few months, even if--as we expect--overall economic growth picks up. The core problem is the strong dollar, which is hammering exporters, as our first chart shows. The slowdown in growth in China and other emerging markets is hurting too, but this is part of the reason why the dollar is strong in the first place.

17 October 2018 The Eurozone's Trade Surplus is Headed Down a Notch this Year (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's trade surplus rebounded slightly over the summer, rising to €16.6B in August from €12.6B in July, helped mainly by a 2.0% month-to- month jump in exports.

17 June. 2015 FOMC to Acknowledge Rebound, but Rate Dots Likely Unchanged (Publication Centre)

The tone of today's FOMC statement likely will be different to the gloomy April missive, which began with a list of bad news: "...economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors. The pace of job gains moderated... underutilization of labor resources was little changed. Growth in household spending declined... Business fixed investment softened, the recovery in the housing sector remained slow, and exports declined."

18 Dec. 2015 Should We be Worried by the Rise in the Saving Rate? (Publication Centre)

We have argued consistently since oil prices first began to fall that U.S. consumers would spend most of their windfall, so real spending would accelerate even as nominal retail sales growth was dragged down by the drop in the price of gas and other imported goods. At the same time, we argued that capital spending in the oil business would collapse, and that exports would struggle in the face of the stronger dollar.

19 April 2018 Japan's Trade Data Reinforce our View of Zero GDP Growth in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade activity slowed sharply in Q1. The yen value of exports fell 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, after a 5.5% jump in Q4.

20 May. 2016 Chile's GDP Growth is Not Accelerating, Despite Strong Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Chilean economy improved in the first quarter, growing 2.0% year-over-year, up from 1.3% in the fourth quarter. Net trade led the improvement, with exports rising 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, thanks to the modest rise in metal prices and an increase in exports of services, especially tourism.

16 November 2017 The Eurozone's Trade Surplus Won't Stay so High for Long (Publication Centre)

We are sticking to our view that the Eurozone's trade surplus will fall in the next six months, despite yesterday's upbeat report. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus leapt to a record high of €25.0B in September from revised €21.0B in August, lifted by an increase in exports and a decline in imports.

18 Mar. 2015 Tough times for Colombia: Falling Oil Prices and COP Depreciation (Publication Centre)

Colombia was the fastest growing economy in LatAm last year but it faces major challenges. The collapse of oil prices--which account for about half of exports--the COP depreciation, rising inflation and Fed's impending monetary policy normalization, are dragging down economic activity and damaging confidence.

16 June. 2015 EZ External Demand on Track for Healthy Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Net exports should come roaring back as a driver of Eurozone GDP growth in the second quarter. The euro area trade surplus leapt to €24.3B in April, a new all-time high, up from a revised €19.9B in March. A 1.7% month-to-month fall in imports--mean-reversion from a 3.9% increase in March--was a big contributor to the higher surplus.

*Nov. 2016 - U.K.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Exports won't offset a Consumer Slowdown...Sterling decline has Constrained Policymakers

Question of the Week, WC 2nd July (Media Centre)

Why is the EZ current account surplus rising and net exports falling at the same time? 

10 Feb. 2016 No Relief for German Q4 GDP Forecasts in Yesterday's Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German manufacturing and trade data did little to allay our fears over downside risks to this week's Q4 GDP data. At -1.2% month-to-month in December, industrial production was much weaker than the consensus forecast of a 0.5% increase. Exports also surprised to the downside, falling 1.6% month-to-month. Our GDP model, updated with these data, shows GDP growth fell 0.2%-to-0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, reversing the 0.3% increase in Q3.

12 Dec. 2014 Mexico's Data have been Upbeat but Downside Risks are Growing (Publication Centre)

Recent Mexican data have been upbeat, supporting our view that a gradual recovery is underway. In the key auto sector, for example, production increased 11.4% year-over-year in November, while exports rose 5.8% year-over-year in October.

12 June 2017 Germany's Trade Surplus is Vulnerable to U.K. Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

Germany continues to draw fire for its ballooning trade surplus, but momentum in net exports is easing. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus dipped marginally to a three-month low of €19.7B in April, from €19.8B in March, as stronger imports offset a modest rise in exports. The German trade surplus averaged €19.9B in the first four months of 2017, about 10% lower than the cyclical peak, in the middle of 2016.

12 Feb. 2016 Poor EZ Q4 GDP Data Likely Already Priced-in by Markets (Publication Centre)

Today's Q4 GDP report in the Eurozone likely will show that growth slowed again at the end of last year. We think GDP growth dipped to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, down from 0.3% in Q3, and risks to our forecast are firmly tilted to the downside. The initial release does not contain details, but we think a slowdown in consumers' spending and a drag from net exports were the main drivers of the softening.

22 August 2017 Is the Worst Over for State and Local Government Spending? (Publication Centre)

Consumption and investment spending by state and local government accounts for just over 10% of the U.S. economy, making it more important than exports or consumers' spending on durable goods, and roughly equal to all business investment in equipment and intellectual property.

19 August. 2015 Colombia's Domestic Economy is Resilient, But Real Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

The Colombian economy has been able to grow this year despite the plunge in oil prices since the middle of 2014. Gains in consumers' spending and investment have offset part of the hit from falling exports. But private spending growth, nonetheless, slowed considerably during the first few months of the year, as shown in our char t below, in part due to rising prices for imported goods after the depreciation of the COP, as well as broad-based concerns over the state of the economy.

30 May 2018 Will Japan's Labour Market Begin to Soften Later this Year? (Publication Centre)

Japan's domestic demand has underperformed in the last three quarters, while exports were strong last year but weakened--due to temporary factors--in Q1.

3 June. 2015 April trade data could be wild - They matter for Q2 GDP forecasts (Publication Centre)

We were a bit surprised to see our forecast for the April trade deficit is in line with the consensus, $44B, down from $51.4B in March, because the uncertainty is so great. The March deficit was boosted by a huge surge in non-oil imports following the resolution of the West Coast port dispute, while exports rose only slightly. As far as we can tell, ports unloaded ships waiting in harbours and at the docks, lifting the import numbers before reloading those ships.

23 January 2017 ECB: Can the Eurozone Consumer Keep Up the Good Work in 2017? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone has come under the spotlight for its growing external surplus, but domestic households have been doing the heavy lifting for GDP growth in this business cycle. During the last four quarters, consumers' spending has boosted year-over-year GDP growth by an average of 1.0 percentage points, in contrast to a 0.4pp drag from net exports.

5 July 2017 Cyclical Improvement in Brazil's Trade Balance is Nearly Over (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external position continue to improve, but we are sticking to our view that further significant gains are unlikely in the second half, given the stronger BRL. For now, though, we still see some momentum, with the unadjusted trade surplus increasing to USD7.2B in June, up from USD4.0B a year earlier. Exports surged 24% year-over-year but imports rose only 3%.

9 Oct. 2015 FOMC Members Sticking to Previous Positions, Mostly (Publication Centre)

The FOMC minutes showed both sides of the hike debate are digging in their heels. As the doves are a majority--rates haven't been hiked--the tone of the minutes is, well, a bit do vish. But don't let that detract from the key point that, "Most participants continued to anticipate that, based on their assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, the conditions for policy firming had been met or would likely be met by the end of the year." Confidence in this view has diminished among "some" participants, however, worried about the impact of the strong dollar, falling stock prices and weaker growth in China on U.S. net exports and inflation.

9 May 2018 Chinese Import Growth is Flattered by Price Effects (Publication Centre)

China's trade data looked more normal in April. The trade balance rebounded to a surplus of $28.8B in April, from a deficit of $5.0B in March. Exports also bounced back, rising 12.9% year-over-year in April, after a 2.7% decline in March.

28 Apr. Don't Pin Your Hopes on a Post-Referendum Rebound (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 reflects more than just Brexit risk. The intensifying fiscal squeeze, the uncompetitiveness of U.K. exports, and the lack of spare labour suggest that the U.K.'s recovery now is stuck in a lower gear.

4 June. 2015 Trade will add to Q2 growth, but normalization still some way off (Publication Centre)

The April foreign trade numbers strongly support our view that foreign trade will make a hefty positive contribution to second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting a massive 1.9 percentage points in the first. The headline April deficit fell further than we expected, thanks in part to an unsustainable jump in aircraft exports and a decline in the oil deficit, but the big story was the 4.2% plunge in non- oil imports.

24 August. 2015 The U.S. Will be A Net Gainer from EM Turmoil, Thanks to Cheap Oil (Publication Centre)

If the plunge in the stock market last week, and especially Friday, was a entirely a reaction to the slowdown in China and its perceived impact on other emerging economies, then it was an over-reaction. Exports to China account for just 0.7% of U.S. GDP; exports to all emerging markets account for 2.1%. So, even a 25% plunge in exports to these economies-- comparable to the meltdown seen as global trade collapsed after the financial crisis--would subtract only 0.5% from U.S. growth over a full year, gross.

27 July 2018 Q2 Slump in Korean Investment will Elicit More Accommodative Policy (Publication Centre)

Korean GDP data for Q2, released yesterday, were largely in line with our expectations, in that net exports cushioned softer domestic demand.

25 Apr. Preliminary GDP Data to Confirm Q1 Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of first quarter GDP likely will confirm that the economic recovery lost considerable pace in early 2016. Bedlam in financial markets in January and business fears over the E.U. referendum are partly responsible for the slowdown. The deceleration, however, also reflects tighter fiscal policy, uncompetitive exports, and the economy running into supply-side constraints.

24 Mar. February Retail Sales to Highlight Weakening Trend in Spending (Publication Centre)

The economic recovery would have lost more momentum last year had consumers not delved so deeply into their pockets. Real household spending increased by 0.7% and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and Q4 respectively, in contrast to investment and exports, which fell in both quarters.

25 January 2017 Brazil's Current Account Gap is Shrinking, but not for Much Longer (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts were the bright spot last year, once again, but the ne ws will soon take a turn for the worse. The current account deficit fell to just USD24B last year, or 1.3% of GDP, from USD59B in 2015. The improvement was driven by the trade surplus, which rose to USD48B, the highest since 1992, when the comparable data series begins. A 20% plunge in imports, coupled with a mere 3% dip in exports, explain the rising trade surplus.

25 May 2018 What Would Convince the BoK to Hike this Year? (Publication Centre)

The BoK kept rates unchanged at 1.50% yesterday. We thought a hike was open to consideration, as the authorities had professed to be on a mission to reduce dependency on exports and household debt. But we remain more bearish than the BoK on the outlook for the rest of the year.

26 July. 2016 The German Economy Stalled in Q2, But Should Rebound in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The German statistical office will supply a confidential estimate to Eurostat for this week's advance euro area Q2 GDP data. Our analysis suggests this number will be grim, and weigh on the aggregate EZ estimate. Our GDP model, which includes data for retail sales, industrial production and net exports, forecasts that real GDP in Germany contracted 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, after a 0.7% jump in Q1.

Question of the Week, WC 9th July (Media Centre)

Why is the EZ current account surplus rising and net exports falling at the same time? 

U.S. Economic Research

U.S. Economic Monitor, Datanotes and Presentations

Asia Economic Research

Asia Economic Monitor, Datanotes and Presentations

U.K. Economic Research

U.K. Economic Monitor, Datanotes and Presentations

Latin America Economic Research

Latin America Economic Monitor, Datanotes and Presentations

Eurozone Economic Research

Eurozone Economic Monitor, Datanotes and Presentations

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: Search Results: 470

pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent advice, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic researcj, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, Dr. Ian Shepherdson, Ian Shepherdson, financial market, financial, market, finance, macro, macro research, independent macro research