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31 July 2018 Employment Costs are Accelerating, but Slowly... For Now (Publication Centre)

The most important number, potentially, in today's wave of economic reports is the Employment Costs Index for second quarter.

30 Jan. 2015 Downside Risk for Fourth Quarter GDP Growth - Inventories a Risk (Publication Centre)

We are nervous about the first estimate of fourth quarter GDP growth, due today. The consensus forecast is a decent 3.1%, but we are struggling mightily to get anywhere near that.

31 January 2017 Will Faster Wage Growth Finally Trigger An Acceleration in the ECI? (Publication Centre)

The headline employment cost index has been remarkably dull recently, with three straight 0.6% quarterly increases. The consensus forecast for today's report, for the three months to December, is for the same again.

31 January 2019 Powell Says No Fed Put, but Stocks Jump and the Curve Steepens (Publication Centre)

The FOMC has gone all-in, more or less, on the idea that the headwinds facing the economy mean that the hiking cycle is over.

29 Jan. 2016 Will Inventories and Government Hold Q4 GDP Close to Zero? (Publication Centre)

We expect to learn today that the economy barely grew at all in the fourth quarter. At least, that's what we think the first estimate of growth, due today, will show. This number will then be revised twice over the next couple of months, then again when revisions for the past three years are released in July. Thereafter, the numbers are subject to further annual revisions indefinitely.

31 October 2017 Consumption Set for a Sluggish Q4, Capex Will Take up the Slack (Publication Centre)

The September consumption data were a bit better than median expectations, with real spending rebounding by 0.6%, led by an 15.1% leap in the new vehicle component.

26 Jan. 2015 All Eyes on ECI - Nothing Matters More to the Fed than Wages (Publication Centre)

This week is, potentially, hugely important in determining the Fed's near-term view of the real state of the labor market and its approach to monetary policy over the next few months. The key event is the release of the fourth quarter employment cost index, which could make a material difference to perceptions of the degree of wage pressure.

1 May 2017 Ignore the Weak Q1 GDP Numbers -- they Cannot be Trusted (Publication Centre)

If you apply a seasonal adjustment to a seasonally adjusted series, it shouldn't change. When you apply a seasonal adjustment to the U.S. GDP numbers, they do change. First quarter growth, reported Friday at just 0.7%, goes up to 1.7%, on our estimate.

2 Feb. 2015 Slower Q4 Growth is a Distraction - Labor Data Matter Much More (Publication Centre)

Don't fret over the slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter. The quarterly GDP data are volatile even after several rounds of revisions, and the advance numbers are full of assumptions about missing trade, inventory and capex data, which often turn out to be wrong.

30 Oct. 2015 The Third Quarter ECI is Set to Rebound, but How Far? (Publication Centre)

We have been asked by a few readers how much confidence we have in our forecast of a 1% rebound in the third quarter employment costs index, well above the 0.6% consensus and the mere 0.2% second quarter gain. The answer, unfortunately, is not much, though we do think that the balance of risks to the consensus is to the upside.

1 November 2018 Productivity Growth is Rising the Fed's r-star Will Have to Climb too (Publication Centre)

On the heels of yesterday's benign Q3 employment costs data--wages rebounded but benefit costs slowed, and a 2.9% year-over-year rate is unthreatening--today brings the first estimates of productivity growth and unit labor costs.

Consistently Right

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