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23 Mar. 2016 Mortgage Lending Conditions Improving - Where are the Sales? (Publication Centre)

Further evidence emerged yesterday in support of our view that mortgage lending conditions are easing. The monthly mortgage origination report from Ellie Mae, Inc., a private mortgage processing firm, shows average credit scores for both successful and unsuccessful loan applications continue to trend downwards--though the latter rose marginally in February--while loans are closing much more quickly than in the recent past.

23 August 2017 New Home Sales set for Cycle Highs, but Only Temporarily (Publication Centre)

The level of new home sales is likely to hit new cycle highs over the next few months, with a decent chance that today's July report will show sales at their highest level since late 2007.

30 August 2017 ADP Looks set to Report Another Solid Gain in Payrolls (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a hefty increase in private payrolls in today's August ADP employment report. ADP's number is generated by a model which incorporates macroeconomic statistics and lagged official payroll data, as well as information collected from firms which use ADP's payroll processing services.

22 March 2017 Why Are Pending Sales Lagging Existing Sales? (Publication Centre)

The remarkably strong existing home sales numbers in recent months, relative to the pending home sales index, are hard to explain. In January, total sales reached 5.69M, some 6% higher than the 5.35M implied by December's pending sales index. The gap between the series has widened in recent months, as our first chart shows, and we think the odds now favor a correction in today's February report.

21 February 2018 Downside Risk for January Home Sales, but Expect a Decent Spring (Publication Centre)

Today's housing market data likely will look soft, but will probably not be representative of the underlying story, which remains quite positive.

11 August. 2016 Mortgage Demand is Faltering, Will it Rebound Soon? (Publication Centre)

The medium-term trend in the volume of mortgage applications turned up in early 2015, but progress has not been smooth. The trend in the MBA's purchase applications index has risen by about 40% from its late 2014 low, but the increase has been characterized by short bursts of rapid gains followed by periods of stability.

19 October 2018 Mortgage Lenders were Spooked by Higher Rates even Before Stocks Fell (Publication Centre)

Rising mortgage rates appear to have triggered the start, perhaps, of a tightening in lending standards, even before Treasury yields spiked this month and stock prices fell.

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