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In the wake of yesterday's ADP report, which showed private payrolls rising by only 163K, we have pulled down our forecast for today's official number to 170K.
We are not worried, at all, by the slowdown in headline payroll growth to 157K in July from an upwardly-revised 248K in June.
Normal service appears to have resumed in August, with payrolls rising by 201K, very close to the 196K average over the previous year.
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