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59 matches for " durable goods orders":

25 May 2018 Aircraft Likely Drove up April Durable Goods Orders, Core Softer? (Publication Centre)

We see significant upside risk to today's headline durable goods orders numbers for April.

13 March 2019 Durable Goods Orders are Noisy, but the Near-term Outlook is Grim (Publication Centre)

Our default position for core durable goods orders over the next few months is that they will fall, sharply.

24 May 2019 Boeing's Woes are Hitting Durable Goods Orders - the Core is OK, Just (Publication Centre)

A grim-looking headline durable goods orders number for April seems inevitable today, given the troubles at Boeing.

25 April 2019 Aircraft will Flatter March Durable Goods Orders Expect a Weak Core (Publication Centre)

If you wanted to be charitable, you could argue that the downturn in the rate of growth of core durable goods orders in recent months has not been as bad as implied by the ISM manufacturing survey.

Financial Times - US durable goods orders rise by most in 7 months in March (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing U.S. Durable Goods Orders

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: No bottom yet for core orders.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surging core capex orders suggest non-manufacturing firms are spending.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Advance Goods Trade, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Capex orders and trade are net neutral for Q2 GDP estimates.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core orders soft, but likely to be even softer in Q4.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible, but could have been even worse.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but the outlook is for a much worse numbers in Q4 and beyond.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: The core capex picture is deteriorating.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, January + GDP revisions + Jobless claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: The calm before virus storm.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Could have been even worse; will be (much) worse.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another solid month for capex, but headline orders pushed up by noise in the aircraft sector.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery continues, though not for Boeing.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Headline is very flattering; core orders rising but outlook is cloudy.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Before the deluge, the trend in core orders was flat.

26 June 2019 Durable Goods Orders Under Pressure, but no Meltdown (Publication Centre)

I need to ask your indulgence today, because the release of the durable goods and advance international trade reports coincides with my elder daughter's college graduation ceremony.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable goods orders, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid core behind the soft headlines.

US Datanote: Durable Goods Orders, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The headline jump is noise, but so--we hope--is the drop in core capital goods orders.

26 July 2018 June Durable Orders Likely Hit by a Quirk in the Aircra Component (Publication Centre)

We're braced for a hefty downside surprise in today's durable goods orders numbers, thanks to a technicality.

27 June 2018 Aircraft Set to Depress May Durable Orders, but the Core Story is Better (Publication Centre)

We were wrong about headline durable goods orders in April, because the civilian aircraft component behaved very strangely.

22 November 2017 Core Capital Goods Orders Rising Strongly, Further Gains Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Today brings a wave of data, some brought forward because of Thanksgiving. We are most interested in the durable goods orders report for October, which we expect will show the upward trend in core capital goods orders continues.

28 Jan. 2015 What Happened to December Durable Goods Orders? (Publication Centre)

We are pretty confident that the reported 3.4% drop in durable goods orders in December, which so spooked the markets yesterday, didn't actually happen.

27 Jan. 2015 Falling Oil Sector Capex a Wild Card for Durable Goods Orders (Publication Centre)

We would like to be able to argue with confidence that today's December durable goods orders report will show core capital goods orders rebounding after three straight declines, totalling 3.4%.

7 December. 2016 Durable Goods Orders Plunged Last Month, but the Core is Stabilizing (Publication Centre)

Unless Boeing received a huge aircraft order on November 30, we can now be pretty sure that most of October's 4.6% leap in headline durable goods orders reversed last month. Through November 29, Boeing booked orders for 34 aircraft, compared to 85 in October. Moreover, the bulk of the orders were for relatively low value 737s, whereas the October numbers were boosted by a surge in orders for 787s, whose list price is about three times higher.

24 March 2017 Boeing Likely Boosted February Orders,Oil Lifting the Core Trend (Publication Centre)

The nominal value of orders for non-defense capital equipment, excluding aircraft, fell by 3.4% last year. This was less terrible than 2015, when orders plunged by 8.4%, but both years were grim when compared to the average 7.5% increase over the previous five years.

25 August 2017 Yellen to Talk on Financial Stability, But Might Refer to Policy too (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole today, at 10:00 Eastern. Her topic is billed as "financial stability", but that does not necessarily preclude remarks on the outlook for the economy and policy.

23 March 2018 Stock up on Chinese-Made T-Shirts, While They're Still Nearly Free (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's announcement that the administration plans to imposes tariffs worth about $60B per year -- thatìs 0.3% of GDP -- on an array of imports of consumer goods from China is a serious escalation.

22 December 2017 Strong November Consumption Sets Course for 3½% Q4 Gain? (Publication Centre)

This is the final U.S. Economic Monitor of 2017, a year which has seen the economy strengthen, the labor market tighten substantially, and the Fed raise rates three times, with zero deleterious effect on growth.

25 February 2019 Manufacturing Continues to Weaken, no Floor Yet in Sight (Publication Centre)

Last week's data added yet more weight to our view that manufacturing is in deep trouble, and that the bottom has not yet been reached.

24 Apr 2020 Jobless Losses are Slowing, but are Still Terrifyingly Fast (Publication Centre)

The 810K drop in jobless claims in the week ended April 18 was a bit less than we expected, but the downward trend is clear; claims have fallen by some 2.4M from their peak, in the final week of March.

26 November 2018 Tariffs are Hurting the U.S. and China Escalation Would be Excruciating (Publication Centre)

It is becomingly increasingly clear that the trade war with China is hurting manufacturers in both countries.

3 December 2018 Tariff Deferment Shows Both Sides Want a Deal, but it Will Take Time (Publication Centre)

The agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 is a deferment of disaster rather than a fundamental rebuilding of the trading relationship between the U.S. and China.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery from the Q4 stock market hit continues apace.

29 Jan. 2016 Will Inventories and Government Hold Q4 GDP Close to Zero? (Publication Centre)

We expect to learn today that the economy barely grew at all in the fourth quarter. At least, that's what we think the first estimate of growth, due today, will show. This number will then be revised twice over the next couple of months, then again when revisions for the past three years are released in July. Thereafter, the numbers are subject to further annual revisions indefinitely.

27 February 2018 The Q4 Surge in the Trade Deficit is set for a Substantial Reversal (Publication Centre)

The closer we look at the startling surge in imports in the fourth quarter, the more convinced we become that it was due in large part to a burst of inventory replacement following the late summer hurricanes.

21 November 2018 A More Data-Dependent Fed is Still not off the Labor Market Hook (Publication Centre)

Expectations for a March rate hike have dipped since Fed Vice-Chair Clarida's CNBC interview last Friday.

27 April 2017 The Path to Implementing Huge Tax Cuts Looks Insurmountably Steep (Publication Centre)

The tax plan released by the administration yesterday was so thoroughly leaked that it contained no real surprises. The border adjustment tax is dead -- not that we thought it would have passed the Senate in any event -- and the centerpiece is a proposed cut in the corporate income tax rate to 15% from 35%.

26 May 2017 First Quarter Growth Set to be Revised up, but Data are Very Flawed (Publication Centre)

We didn't believe the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth, 0.7%, and we won't believe today's second estimate, either. The data are riddled with distortions, most notably the long-standing problem of residual seasonality, which depressed the number by about one percentage point.

2 April 2019 Manufacturing Might have Hit Bottom, but Don't Celebrate Yet (Publication Centre)

We were happy to see the small increase in the March ISM manufacturing index yesterday, following better news from China's PMIs, but none of these reports constitute definitive evidence that the manufacturing slowdown is over.

20 December 2018 The Dovish Hike wasn't Dovish Enough for the Stock Market (Publication Centre)

The FOMC did the minimum expected of it yesterday, raising rates by 25bp--with a 20bp increase in IOER--and dropping one of its dots for 2019.

US Datanote: Durable Goods Orders, October and Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: The jump in capex orders is welcome but impossible to square with surveys; expect a correction.

27 October. 2016 Core Capex Orders Set for Third Straight Gain as Oil Hit Fades? (Publication Centre)

The headline durable goods orders number for October, due today, likely will be depressed by falling aircraft orders, both civilian and military. Boeing reported orders for 55 civilian aircraft in September, compared to only three in August, but a hefty adverse swing in the seasonal factor will translate that into a small seasonally adjusted decline.

28 Jan 2020 Plummeting Boeing Orders Mean Downside Risk for Durable Goods (Publication Centre)

Core durable goods orders in recent months have been much less terrible than implied by both the ISM and Markit manufacturing surveys.

28 June 2018 Second Quarter Growth is on Track to be a Blockbuster (Publication Centre)

The decline in headline durable goods orders in May, reported yesterday, doesn't matter.

20 Feb. 2015 Data Surprises Don't Tell Us Much About the Economy (Publication Centre)

At the headline level, much of the recent U.S. macro dataflow has been disappointing. January retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and both ISM surveys--manufacturing and non-manufacturing-- undershot consensus, following a sharp and unexpected drop in December durable goods orders.

28 September. 2016 Expect Weak Headline Durable Orders (Publication Centre)

A third outright decline in the past four months seems a decent bet for today's August durable goods orders, thanks to the malign influence of the downward trend in orders for civilian aircraft. The global airline cycle is maturing, and orders for both Boeing and Airbus aircraft have been slowing for some time.

27 June 2017 Flat Capex Orders won't Stop the Labor Market Tightening Further (Publication Centre)

The flat trend in core capital goods orders continued through May, according to yesterday's durable goods orders report. We are not surprised.

26 Feb. 2015 Downside Risks for January CPI and Durable Orders? (Publication Centre)

Two key reports today, on January consumer prices and durable goods orders, have the power to move markets substantially. We think both will undershoot market expectations, though we would be deeply reluctant to read too much into either report; both are distorted by temporary factors.

24 Oct 2019 Core Capex Orders aren't as Weak as the ISM Suggests... Yet (Publication Centre)

Core durable goods orders have not weakened as much as implied by the ISM manufacturing survey, as our first chart shows, but it is risky to assume this situation persists.

25 June 2020 Upside Risk for May Durable Goods, but it's Mostly Noise, not Signal (Publication Centre)

The headline May durable goods orders numbers today probably will look very strong, with the odds favoring a much bigger increase than the 10.1% consensus; we'll come back to that.

25 Feb. 2016 Huge Upside Risk for Durable Orders as Aircraft Sales Rebound (Publication Centre)

Today's headline durable goods orders number for January is likely to blast through the consensus forecast, +2.7%. We expect a 6.5% jump, comfortably reversing December's 5.0% drop.

26 April 2018 March Trade and Durable Orders Data to Boost Q1 GDP Forecasts? (Publication Centre)

The key data today, covering March durable goods orders and international trade in goods, should both beat consensus forecasts.

26 Aug 2020 Capex is Rising, but it Won't Recover its Losses in the Foreseeable Future (Publication Centre)

After two hefty month-to-month increases, durable goods orders ex-transportation now stand only 3.9% below their January pre-Covid peak.

Wall Street Journal - U.S. Durable-Goods Orders Post Biggest Jump in a Year (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Bloomberg - U.S. Capital-Equipment (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing Durable Goods Orders in May

Bloomberg - US core capital goods orders lend support to dollar (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing Durable Goods Orders in May

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