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280 matches for " deflation":

1 Oct. 2015 Deflation Will Likely Bully the ECB to Expand QE this Month (Publication Centre)

Economic survey data have been upbeat recently, but key Eurozone data releases yesterday suggest the ECB will be under pressure to increase monetary policy stimulus further this month. The advance inflation estimate showed that the euro area slipped back into deflation in September, as inflation fell to -0.1% year-over- year, from +0.1% in August. The fall was mainly due to a 8.9% collapse in energy prices, though, and we are very confident the relapse is temporary.

29 Feb. 2016 The Eurozone is Back in Deflation, but the Relapse is Temporary (Publication Centre)

Advance inflation data on Friday added to the gloom on the Eurozone economy. Reports from Germany, France, and Spain all surprised to the downside, indicating the euro area as a whole slipped back into deflation in February. Inflation in Germany dipped to 0.0% year-over-year in February, from 0.5% in January, and France slid back into deflation as the CPI index fell 0.2%, down from a 0.2 increase last month.

11 Sept 2019 China's PPI Deflation isn't all Commodity-Driven (Publication Centre)

China's PPI deflation deepened in August, with prices dropping 0.8% year-over-year, after a 0.3% decline in July.

5 Nov 2019 China Faces a Mix of Spiking CPI Inflation and Ongoing PPI Deflation (Publication Centre)

China is facing a nasty mix of spiking CPI inflation and ongoing PPI deflation.

22 Nov 2019 China's Exit from PPI Deflation Next Year will be Short-Lived (Publication Centre)

The PBoC's quarterly monetary policy report seemed relatively sanguine on the question of PPI deflation, attributing it mainly to base effects--not entirely fairly--and suggesting that inflation will soon return.

11 Mar 2020 Chinese PPI Deflation is Back, But Should Disappear by Q4 (Publication Centre)

Collapsing oil prices add fresh deflationary pressure on China.

8 Jan. 2015 The ECB Will Be Forced to Act as The Eurozone Slips Into Deflation (Publication Centre)

Deflation officially arrived in the Eurozone yesterday as a 6.3% plunge in energy prices pushed the overall rate of inflation to -0.2% year-over-year in December, down sharply from 0.3% in November.

01 Mar. 2016 The EZ's Return to Deflation is Misleading, but the ECB Will React (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone is back in headline deflation, increasing the pressure on the ECB to deliver further easing when it meets next week. Inflation fell to -0.2% in February, from +0.3% in January, depressed by energy and food prices.

6 Jan. 2015 Weak German CPI = December Deflation in The Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Advance inflation data from Germany and Spain indicate that the Eurozone slipped into deflation last month, piling maximum pressure on Mr. Draghi later this month. Inflation in the euro area's largest economy fell to 0.2% year-over-year in December from 0.6% in November, driven by a 6.6% plunge in the energy component.

30 Sept. 2015 The Eurozone is Probably Back in Deflation, But Not For Long (Publication Centre)

Advance inflation data from Germany and Spain yesterday indicate that the Eurozone slipped back into deflation in September. German inflation fell to 0.0% in September from 0.2% in August, and deflation intensified in Spain as inflation fell to -0.9% from -0.4% last month. This likely pushed the advance Eurozone estimate--released today--below zero. We think inflation fell to -0.1% in September, down from +0.1% in August. The fall will be due mainly to falling energy prices, and we continue to think that the underlying trend in inflation is stabilising, or even turning up.

12 Dec. 2014 The Noose is Tightening On the Eurozone As Deflation Looms (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone is under pressure from all angles, and data from France and Germany yesterday confirmed that the risk of outright deflation has risen significantly. In Germany, inflation fell to 0.6% yearover- year in November, and in France the CPI rose a paltry 0.3%.

05 October. 2016 EZ PPI deflation will be over soon (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ producer price data showed that deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector are fading. The headline PPI index fell 0.2% month- to-month in August, pushing the year-over-year up to -2.1%, from a revised -2.6% July.

10 July 2020 The End is in Sight for PPI Deflation in China, to the Relief of Factories (Publication Centre)

The downward pressure from factory-gate prices on Chinese industrial profits will continue to ease in the coming months.

11 January 2019 Chinese Inflation will Fall a bit Further, but Deflation is Off the Table (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's price data for China showed continued declines in both CPI and PPI inflation.

11 July 2019 Central Banks in Asia have Less Scope to Respond to PPI Deflation (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation in Asia looks set to go from bad to worse, following June's poor numbers, which showed that the weakness in commodity prices is feeding through quicker than expected.

1 February 2019 It's Official China will Enter PPI Deflation, Though Only Briefly (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed in January, ticking up to 49.5, from 49.4 in December, with the output and new orders sub-indices largely stable.

29 Sept. 2015 Deflation Focus is Overwhelming, But Inflation will Pick Up in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone September CPI data this week will show that inflation pressures remain weak, appearing to support the ECB's focus on downside risks. We think Eurozone inflation--data released Wednesday-- rose slightly to 0.2% year-over-year in September from 0.1% in August, as core inflation edged higher, offsetting weak energy prices. Looking ahead, structural inflation pressures will keep inflation well below the central bank's 2% target for a considerable period.

17 Feb. 2015 Falling Goods Prices Do Not Signal Broader U.S. Deflation Risk (Publication Centre)

Last week's import price data, showing prices excluding fuels and food fell in January for the fourth month, support our view that the goods component of the CPI is set to drop sharply this year.

14 July 2020 Mild Deflation Ahead for Core Goods Inflation in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Today's official euro area manufacturing report will be a corker.

16 March 2017 Structural Goods Deflation in France is a Challenge for the ECB (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in France eased in February, in contrast to the story in the rest of the EZ. Yesterday's report confirmed the initial estimate that inflation fell to 1.2% year-over-year in February, from 1.3% in January. The headline was hit by a crash in the core rate to a two-year low of 0.2%, from 0.7% in January.

13 May 2020 Core Inflation has Further to Fall, but Sustained Deflation is Unlikely (Publication Centre)

The record 0.4% drop in the core CPI in April would have looked even worse had it not been for favorable rounding; it was just 0.002% away from printing at -0.5%.

18 Dec. 2014 Outright Deflation is Now a Real Risk for the Eurozone in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the euro area remains under pressure, with both the core and the energy components contributing to the downward trend evident in our first chart. Headline inflation fell to 0.3% year-over-year in November, from 0.4% in October, and we expect a further decline this month.

11 Sept. 2015 Deflation Worry Dominates, but Inflation Could Hurt Bonds in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Final data today will likely confirm that German inflation was unchanged at 0.2% year-over-year in August. The increased drag from falling energy prices was likely offset by higher food prices, mostly fresh vegetables. Core inflation was likely stable at 0.9% year-over-year, with a marginal rise in consumer services inflation offset by a fall in net rent. Rents could fall further this year due to the implementation of caps in major cities, but we s till only have little evidence on how individual states will implement the new legislation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in China is nearing a peak, with pork prices starting to stabilise. November's data confirm that PPI deflation in China has bottomed out. Japan's M2 growth looks exposed to a downward revision. Japan's machine tool orders refuse to turn.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's PMI report bodes well for Q3, but points to headwinds thereafter. PPI deflation in Korea is unlikely to get worse than the August drop.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

The RMB's run is slowing China's exit from PPI deflation. Pork prices are starting to cool, again, pulling down Chinese CPI inflation. M2 growth in Japan remains punchy, setting the stage for a Q3 bounce. Machine tool orders in Japan are finally turning the corner after a long-running slump. Like last year, don't read too much into the August surprise in Korea's jobs data.

7 Jan. 2015 Low Inflation to Offer Significant Boost to Real GDP in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Inflation data later today will likely show that the Eurozone fell into deflation driven primarily by the big plunge in oil prices since 2008. The consensus expects a 0.1% decline year-over-year, but we look for the CPI to fall slightly more, by 0.2%.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

June moderation confirms May nadir in Chinese PPI deflation. Food price disinflation in China stalls in June. No signs of Japan's M2 growth spike tapering anytime soon. The surprise bounce in Japanese core machine orders was fairly narrow. Machine tool orders in Japan end Q2 on an encouraging note.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q2 GDP growth was not all it's cracked up to be. M2 growth in Japan inched up in July, but trends at the margin have rolled over. China's July inflation uptick shows that the swine flu outbreak is nowhere near under control. China officially enters PPI deflation... but it shouldn't last beyond Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

The hit from oil prices has just started; CPI deflation is imminent in Korea. Korea's PMI descends further, but April could mark the low

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour market remains tight but will face persistent slackening from here. Caixin manufacturing on a tear. In the end, CPI deflation in Korea lasted just one month. October probably was the y/y trough in Korea's export slump. Business sentiment in Korea is recovering... albeit only slowly.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

A two-tiered economic recovery is emerging in Japan. PPI deflation in Korea will soon bottom out

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Outright CPI deflation in Japan is just around the corner

ASIAN DATA WRAP 18 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Chinese quarterly GDP growth was dire. China's industrial production was due an upward correction. China's retail sales data suggest that households took a Q3 battering. China's FAI growth shows no signs of turning. Japan's CPI avoids deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

PPI deflation should soon trough. Chinese food inflation takes off. Japan's tertiary index points to strong Q3 GDP growth.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Non-core crosscurrents in Japanese CPI cancelled each other out in June. Ignore the headline... The details of Korea's 20-day export in July weren't that bad. The end is in sight for PPI deflation in Korea.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs turn less grim, but look unsupported, for now. China's non-manufacturing PMI receives a one-off singles day boost. Japan's capex data suggests Q3 upgrade. Net trade is shaping up to be a drag on Q4 GDP, as Korean exports remained weak in November. Korea's exit from deflation is complete, thanks largely to more favourable base effects. Korea's PMI jumps in November... and that's before the likely sentiment boost from normalising ties with Japan.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 August 2020 (Publication Centre)

This should be as high as it gets for Japanese inflation for a while, No significant economic damage from Japan's second wave, just yet, The recovery in Korean exports remains on track, PPI deflation in Korea eases for a second straight month

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ's growth upgrade for fiscal 2020 is on the ambitious side, to say the least. Lunar New Year noise hit Korea's 20-day export print for January. Korea completes its exit from a brief and shallow spell of PPI deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

A trivial upgrade to Korea's Q1 GDP, CPI deflation in Korea will last for the rest of 2020, Monetary base growth in Japan continued to accelerate in May, as the rate of QE rose

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese production surprises in April, as catch-up growth and inventory build continue; Disappointing sales headline in China masks respectable short-term trends; Recovery in secondary investment in China still lagged behind tertiary capex; PPI deflation has largely bottomed out, but don't expect a quick exit

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Evidence continues to build that Korea's August unemployment plunge was a fluke. October sales tax hike in Japan opens the door for a quicker exit from PPI deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Big gains in the size of the labour force continue to flatter Korea's unemployment rate. Japan's exit from PPI deflation will be followed by only modest inflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan is creeping towards CPI deflation, but it should just about avoid it in Q4.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

China still is on track for mild CPI deflation by Q4, PPI deflation in China has bottomed out , Core machine orders in Japan tank in the wake of the state of emergency, Adverse base effects from last year's tax hike will delay Japan's exit from PPI deflation, Surprise spike in Korea's unemployment rate makes sense given the plunge in jobs created

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in China punches through the 3% target. PPI deflation in China should soon bottom out. Japan's rugby boost small in the face of pre-tax front loading. September machinery orders data seriously undermines Japan's "resilient capex" story.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

PPI deflation in Korea looks set to deepen, and rapidly so.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index shows Q2 services strength was merely an April leap. Japan's PPI is slated for more deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI set for another bout of deflation

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Expect Chinese PPI deflation in the second half. China's CPI inflation faces non-core cross currents; services inflation still slowing. Unemployment in Korea held steady in June; the BoK will be chuffed about improving job growth. PPI deflation in Japan will persist until the end of the year.

27 Apr 2020 Oil Price Plunge is a BoJ Headache in More Ways than One (Publication Centre)

The collapse in oil prices looks near-certain to pull Japan back into deflation in the next few months, though the BoJ normally looks through oil-induced swings in its target inflation measure.

2 Nov. 2015 Inflation to Rise Rapidly, but It won't Stop the ECB in December (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone limped out of headline deflation in October, with inflation rising to 0.0% from -0.1% in September, helped by higher core and food inflation. Energy prices fell 8.7% year-over-year, up trivially after a 8.9% drop in September, but base effects will push up the year-over-rate significantly in coming months. Core inflation edged higher to 1.0% from 0.9% in September, due to 0.1 percentage point increases in both non-energy goods and services inflation.

21 Jan. 2016 Why Aren't Core Goods Prices Falling Much Faster? (Publication Centre)

Another day, another sharp drop in the stock market, and another wavelet of commentary suggesting recession and deflation are just around the corner. We have no argument with the idea that the manufacturing sector could contract over, say, the next six months. But the other 88% of the economy--apart from the 1½% of GDP generated by oil extraction-- is benefiting from the strong dollar and cheap fuel.

22 May. 2015 Core Disinflation is Over, but Dollar Strength Limits Upside Risk (Publication Centre)

Core inflation has risen, albeit modestly, in the past two months. The uptick, to 1.8% in March from 1.6% in January, has come as something of a surprise. The narrative in the media and markets remains, as far as we can tell, one of downward pressure on inflation and, still, fear of possible deflation.

5 May 2020 Core Inflation is Set to Fall, but not Every Component will Drop (Publication Centre)

We're very comfortable with the idea that the coronavirus is a broad deflationary shock to the U.S. economy.

12 Aug 2019 China's CPI--PPI Split will Persist, the PPI will Dictate Policymaking (Publication Centre)

The PBoC will find itself between a rock and a hard place in the coming months, as CPI inflation creeps further up towards its 3% target but PPI deflation deepens.

1 Dec. 2014 Eurozone Inflation Squeezed Down from All Sides (Publication Centre)

Inflation data last week confirmed that the spectre of deflation is slowly but surely encroaching on the euro area. In Germany, inflation slipped to 0.6% year-over- year in November, from 0.8% in October, and in the Eurozone as a whole the he adline rate declined to 0.3%, from 0.4% in September.

1 July. 2016 EZ Inflation Will Edge Higher, Regardless of Political Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone escaped deflation last month, and we doubt it will return in this business cycle. Inflation rose to 0.1% year-over-year in June, up from -0.1% in May; it was lifted chiefly by the gradual recovery in oil and other global commodity prices. Energy prices fell 6.5% in June, up from a 8.4% fall in May, and we think the recovery will accelerate in coming months.

10 Sept 2020 Back to Normal Programming, as China's PPI and CPI Converge (Publication Centre)

The pressure on Chinese industrial profits continued to ease in August, looking at the further moderation in PPI deflation.

25 Nov 2019 Japanese October Retail Sales Likely Plunged, Despite Stable Inflation (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation was stable at 0.2% in October, despite the sales tax hike, thanks to a combination of offsetting measures from the government and a deepening of energy deflation.

16 Nov. 2015 Ignore the Hysteria if Inflation Eased Further in October (Publication Centre)

October's consumer price figures, to be released tomorrow, look set to show CPI inflation easing to -0.2%, from -0.1%, below the no-change consensus and the lowest rate since March 1960. No doubt this will spark more hyperbolic headlines about the U.K.'s descent into pernicious deflation; ignore them. October's print will almost certainly represent the nadir and we think it will take only a year for CPI inflation to return to the MPC's 2% target.

30 Apr 2020 Zero CPI Inflation in the Summer Won't Become Entrenched (Publication Centre)

Britain now looks set to flirt with deflation in the summer.

4 May. 2016 Eurozone Manufacturing Firms' Selling Prices Continue to Fall (Publication Centre)

Eurozone manufacturing selling prices remain under pressure from deflationary headwinds. The PPI index, ex-construction, in the euro area fell 4.2% year-over-year in March, matching February's drop. Weakness in oil prices continues to drive the headline.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korean exports show no signs of additional pain from Japan's trade salvo. PPI deflation takes hold in Korea.

27 Feb. 2015 Temporary Factors Distorting Inflation and Orders Data (Publication Centre)

The solid 0.2% increase in January's core CPI, coupled with the small upward revision to December, ought to offer a degree of comfort to anyone worried about European-style deflation pressures in the U.S.

15 Feb. 2016 Stronger CPI Figures to Dispel Fears of Ingrained Deflation (Publication Centre)

January's consumer price data, released tomorrow, look set to reveal a third consecutive rise in CPI inflation, dampening speculation that the U.K. is stuck in a deflationary funk. Indeed, we think CPI inflation picked up to 0.4%, from 0.2% in December, above the consensus, 0.3%.

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Cheaper Oil Drags Down Business Inflation, but Long Deflationary Period Unlikely (Media Centre)

U.S. inflation gauges are sliding toward negative territory for the first time in more than five years. But the oil-fueled tumble in prices is far from the kind of growth-sapping episodes of deflation that tend to worry economists

BUSINESS INSIDER - Europe's Largest Economy Is Officially In Deflation (Media Centre)

Germany's consumer price index fell 0.3% month-over-month in January. It's the first time the inflation rate went negative since September 2009. "Deflation has arrived," Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen said

TELEGRAPH - Eurozone stuck in deflation for fourth straight month (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone deflation

13 June. 2016 Germany Escapes Deflation, and it Won't Return Anytime Soon (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Germany rebounded last month, rising to plus 0.1% year-over-year in May, from minus 0.1% in April. We think the economy has escaped the claws of deflation, for now. Household energy prices fell 5.7% year-over-year in May, up from a 6.3% decline in April, and the rate will rise further. Base effects and higher oil prices point to a surge in energy inflation in the next three-to-six months.

Question of the Week, WC 7th Oct (Media Centre)

Are there any signs of a Chinese recovery yet? Freya Beamish discusses

THE TELEGRAPH - Britain remains stuck in deflation (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. inflation

24 Jan 2020 China's Economy is More Exposed to Deadly Disease now, than in 2003 (Publication Centre)

We can't yet know how bad the spread of the coronavirus from the Chinese city of Wuhan will be.

22 Jan 2020 Don't Set Store by the BoJ's Optimistic GDP Forecast for 2020 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ kept its main policy settings unchanged yesterday, in another 7-to-2 split.

22 Aug 2019 Korean Trade Shows that Japan's Curbs are Much Ado About Nothing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's partial trade data for Korea showed that the downturn in exports softened to -13.3% year-over-year in August from -13.8% in July, based on the 20-day gauge.

21 July 2017 Don't Bet the Farm on a Major QE Decision in September (Publication Centre)

The ECB pressed the repeat button yesterday. The central bank maintained its refinancing rate at 0.00%, and also kept the deposit and marginal lending facility rate at -0.4% and 0.25 respectively. The pace of QE was held at €60B per month, scheduled to run until the end of December, "or beyond, if necessary."

22 October 2018 China's Q3 GDP Growth was Much Weaker than the Headline Rates (Publication Centre)

China's real GDP growth officially slowed to 6.5% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.7% in Q2.

21 March 2019 Upside Risks to our China 2019 GDP Growth Forecast (Publication Centre)

For countries with developed non-banking funding channels, narrow money isn't necessarily a good predictor of GDP growth.

22 June 2020 Should we be Worried About Second Wave Risks in East Asia? (Publication Centre)

The newest cluster of Covid-19 in China has reignited concerns over a second wave. On June 11, Beijing confirmed its first infection in nearly 60 days, originating reportedly from Xinfadi market, a wholesaler which supplies about 80% of the capital's produce.

22 Jan. 2015 End of the Road for The ECB - Sovereign QE or Chaos (Publication Centre)

Investors will get what they want today from the ECB: additional easing in the form of government bond purchases. The central bank is likely to announce or pre-commit to sovereign QE and corporate bond purchases in a new program that will last at least two years.

23 April 2018 Japan's Inflation Faces Near-Term Headwinds, but Core Will Trend up (Publication Centre)

Japan's headline CPI inflation is set to edge down in coming months, thanks to non-core prices.

21 Nov 2019 Japan's Two-way Trade will Remain in the Doldrums Well Into 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japanese trade remained in the doldrums in October, keeping policymakers on their toes as they repeat the refrain of "resilient" domestic demand.

23 July 2020 Japan was off to a Slow Start in Q3, as Second Wave Risks Linger (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash Jibun Bank PMIs for July showed continued improvement, but only just.

23 Jan 2020 Korea's Scorching Q4 GDP will be Downgraded, but the Recovery is On (Publication Centre)

GDP growth in Korea surprised to the upside in the fourth quarter, with the economy expanding by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, three times as fast as in Q3, and the biggest increase in nine quarters.

23 Sept 2019 PBoC Refrains from a Rate Cut a Third Time, it's Still Coming (Publication Centre)

The PBoC left its interest rate corridor, including the Medium-term Lending Facility rate, unchanged last Friday, but published the reformed Loan Prime Rate modestly lower, at 4.20% in September, down from 4.25% in August.

2 September. 2016 German Manufacturing is Doing Well, but Others are Struggling (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ PMIs imply that growth in manufacturing slowed marginally in August. The PMI fell to 51.7, from 52.0 in July, trivially below the initial estimate, 51.8. Output and new orders growth declined, pushing down the pace of new job growth. But we think the hard data for industrial production in Q3 as a whole will be decent.

18 Mar. 2016 Are Markets and the ECB Behind the Curve on Inflation Risks? (Publication Centre)

Barring a disaster, the four-year cyclical upturn in the euro area will continue in the coming quarters. Inflation is a lagging indicator and therefore should rise, and investors should be adjusting their mindset to higher interest rates. But the reality today looks very different. Final inflation data confirmed that the Eurozone inflation slipped to -0.2% year-over-year in February, from 0.2% in January.

18 February 2019 Chinese New Year Effects Evident in January's Money and Price Data (Publication Centre)

Take China's data dump last Friday with a pinch of salt, as Chinese New Year--CNY-- effects look to have distorted January's money and price data.

18 Dec 2019 The BoJ will be Happy to Focus on the Positives this Thursday (Publication Centre)

The BoJ is likely to stay on hold this week for all its main policy settings.

18 Nov 2019 A Meaningful Recovery in Chinese Capex Growth is a Distant Prospect (Publication Centre)

China's investment slowdown went from worrying to frightening in October. Last week's fixed asset investment ex-rural numbers showed that year- to-date spending grew by 5.2% year-over-year in October, marking a further slowdown from 5.4% in the year to September.

18 Oct 2019 Food Inflation Woes Intensify in Asia, with No Sign Yet of Respite (Publication Centre)

Rapidly increasing food inflation is creating all sorts of dilemmas for policymakers in Asia's giants.

19 February 2019 Expect to See a Further Softening in Asian Price Data this Friday (Publication Centre)

A slew of Asian price numbers are due this Friday, and they will all likely show that price gains softened further in January.

19 Dec 2019 Don't Expect China's LPR to Move Much, if at all, for December (Publication Centre)

The PBoC reduced its 14-day reverse repo by 5bp to 2.65% in a routine operation yesterday.

18 October. 2016 September Inflation Jump Just a Prelude to its Upcoming Surge (Publication Centre)

We expect today's consumer price figures to show that CPI inflation jumped to 0.9% in September, from 0.6% in August.

17 Sept 2019 China Needs a Rate Cut and an Interim Deal it will Prioritise Rates (Publication Centre)

China's activity data yesterday made pretty uncomfortable reading for policymakers.

17 Oct 2019 Korea's Q3 GDP Report to Highlight the Futility of the BoK's Second Cut (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea voted yesterday to lower its policy base rate to 1.25%, from 1.50%.

16 Oct 2019 Core Inflation in France is Rising, but the Devil is in the Detail (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final inflation data in France for September were misleadingly soft.

16 Oct 2019 China's Q3 GDP Likely was Dismal, Recovery Still Pending (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2.

16 November 2017 The Eurozone's Trade Surplus Won't Stay so High for Long (Publication Centre)

We are sticking to our view that the Eurozone's trade surplus will fall in the next six months, despite yesterday's upbeat report. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus leapt to a record high of €25.0B in September from revised €21.0B in August, lifted by an increase in exports and a decline in imports.

16 Oct. 2015 Bund Yields are Too Low, but no Serious Increase Until Next Year (Publication Centre)

Bond markets in the euro area have been a calm sea recently relative to the turmoil in equities, credit and commodities. Following the initial surge in yields at the end of second quarter, 10-year benchmark rates have meandered in a tight range, recently settling towards the lower end, at 0.5%. Our outlook for the economy and inflation tells us this is to o low, even allowing for the impact of QE.

17 Dec 2019 Signs of Stabilisation in Chinese Data, but not yet a Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's activity data outperformed expectations in November.

17 Oct 2019 Early Signs of Stabilisation in the Eurozone Auto Sales Data (Publication Centre)

The beleaguered EZ car sector finally enjoyed some relief at the end of Q3, though base effects were the major driver of yesterday's strong headline.

17 July 2020 The ECB Takes Stock of a Strong and Sustained Stimulus Program (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting was a snoozer, just as we predicted.

19 Nov 2019 PBoC Hasn't Turned More Dovish, the Latest Cut was Housekeeping (Publication Centre)

The People's Bank of China cut its seven-day reverse-repo rate yesterday, to 2.50% from 2.55%.

2 April 2019 China's March PMIs Rebounded, but are they a False Dawn (Publication Centre)

The bulk of China's PMIs were published over the weekend and yesterday, leaving only the Caixin services PMI on Wednesday.

20 Jan. 2015 - Wage Gains Will be Slowed by Low CPI Inflation, but Not by Much (Publication Centre)

We have been hearing a good deal recently about the risk that the plunge in headline inflation will feed back into the labor market, keeping the pace of wage gains lower than they would otherwise have been and, therefore, slowing the pace of Fed tightening.

20 Jan 2020 The ECB Won't Flinch Over the Q4 Jump in EZ Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed euro area CPI report for December confirmed that inflation pushed higher at the end of last year. Headline inflation increased to 1.3% year-over- year, from 1.0% in November, lifted primarily by higher energy inflation, rising by 3.4pp, to +0.2%. Inflation in food, alcohol and tobacco also rose, albeit marginally, to 2.1%, from 2.0% in November.

20 Dec 2019 Next Stop for the BoJ, Increase Flexibility of the Framework (Publication Centre)

The BoJ held firm, for the most part, during this year's bout of central bank dovishness.

20 Mar 2020 Health Check for the Rest of Asia... Downgrades for Korea and India (Publication Centre)

Brace yourselves; GDP growth forecasts are being slashed left and right, as our colleagues take stock of the economic damage Covid-19 likely will inflict in the U.S. and across Europe, where outbreaks and containment measures have escalated significantly.

20 March 2019 Why Japan's February CPI Could Surprise to the Downside (Publication Centre)

The national February inflation data are due this Friday, a couple of weeks after the Tokyo report, as usual.

21 Feb 2020 Buckle Up, Today's Eurozone PMIs Will Move Markets, We Think (Publication Centre)

Today's advance EZ PMIs will be watched more closely than usual.

20 Nov 2019 Indian Inflation Smashes Through the RBI's Target, Setting Up a Pause (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in India jumped to 4.6% in October, from 4.0% in September, marking a 16-month high and blasting through the RBI's target.

20 Aug 2019 PBoC's Interest Rate Reform Faces Supply-side Hurdles (Publication Centre)

The PBoC announced on Saturday that it will publish a new Loan Prime Rate, from today, following a State Council announcement last Friday.

20 Apr 2020 Chinese GDP Seems Unlikely to Rise in 2020, given the Q1 Drop (Publication Centre)

It happened! Before Q1, Chinese GDP year-over- year growth had moved by no more than two tenths of a percentage point for years.

2 July 2019 Mr. Trump Removes the Gun from Mr. Xi's Head... Now a Deal? (Publication Centre)

We anticipated that the G20 meeting at Osaka over last weekend would be a potentially important mark of thawing relations between China and the U.S., with the hotly awaited meeting between Messrs. Xi and Trump.

2 Jan 2020 China's PMIs Highlight Weakening Non-manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 50.2 in December, marking a weak end to the year. But it could have been worse; we had been worried that the return to above-50 territory in November had been boosted by temporary factors. December's print allays some of those fears.

2 Dec 2019 Further Increase in Japanese Unemployment in Store (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate was unchanged, at 2.4% in October, as the market took a breather after September's job losses.

2 June 2020 Chinese Industry is Skating on Thin Ice, Given Sinking Export Orders (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in China continued to trudge along in May, with their post-lockdown recovery looking increasingly fragile.

2 Mar 2020 ECB easing is on the way, the only question is how much (Publication Centre)

We'll cover Friday's barrage of EZ economic data later in this Monitor, but first things first. We regret to inform readers that the ECB is behind the curve. Last week, Ms. Lagarde downplayed the idea that the central bank will respond to the shock from the Covid-19 outbreak.

24 Mar. 2016 EZ Consumers' Spending Is Slowing, but Won't Collapse (Publication Centre)

All the evidence indicates that growth in Eurozone consumers' spending is slowing. We think data today will show that the advance GfK consumer sentiment index in Germany was unchanged at 9.5 in April, but the headline index does not correlate well with spending. The "business expectations" index is better, and while it likely will increase slightly, our first chart shows that it continues to signal a slowdown in consumers' spending growth.

2 October 2018 PMIs Show China is Slowing Risks of a Government Overreaction (Publication Centre)

China's September PMIs, most of which were released over the weekend, mark out a clear downtrend in activity since late last year.

21 Jan 2020 A Tale of Why the ECB is Different from Most Other Central Banks (Publication Centre)

Economists refer to two different types of forward rate guidance by central banks: Delphic and Odyssean. The former describes a "normal" situation, in which the central bank follows a transparent rate-setting rule allowing markets to forecast what it will do, based on the flow of economic data.

29 May 2020 Expect Another BoK Cut, as the Data will Continue to Disappoint (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday voted unanimously to lower its base rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.50%.

6 Jan 2020 China's Hukou Reforms, Useful but no Substitute for Looser Money (Publication Centre)

Late last year, China said it would scrap residency restrictions for cities with populations less than three million, while the rules for those of three-to-five million will be relaxed.

6 February 2019 Japan will be Hard Pressed to Maintain Above-Trend Growth in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Nikkei services PMI for Japan partly rebounded in January, to 51.6, after it fell sharply to 51.0 in December.

6 March 2019 China's Fiscal Arithmetic Looks Stretched Deficit Yawning Wide (Publication Centre)

The main story to emerge from China's Economic Work Report is the extent of tax cuts, which on our calculations will leave a large funding hole.

6 May 2020 China's Trade Woes Probably Came Back with a Vengeance in April (Publication Centre)

The collapse in global demand last month will have derailed China's trade recovery, causing exports to drop unpleasantly month-on-month after the bounce of around 45% in March; the January/February breakdown is not provided, so we can't be sure of the extent of the March rebound.

6 Nov 2019 PBoC Wades in with a... 5bp MLF cut, it's Nowhere Near Enough (Publication Centre)

The PBoC finally moved yesterday, cutting its one-year MLF rate by 5bp to 3.25%, whilst replacing around RMB 400B of maturing loans.

5 May 2020 Covid Outbreak Over, but no Signs of a Turnaround in Korean Surveys (Publication Centre)

Korea's manufacturing PMI fell for a fourth straight month in April, dropping to 41.6, which is the lowest reading since January 2009.

4 Sept 2019 A Japanese Stimulus Package is on its Way, but not a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The BoJ has no good options, and its leeway for changes to existing policy instruments is limited.

30 September 2016 Today's Eurozone Inflation Data Likely Will Surprise to the Upside (Publication Centre)

Today's advance CPI data will show that EZ inflation pressures rose further at the end of Q3. The headline number likely will exceed the consensus. We think inflation rose to 0.5% year-over-year in September from 0.2% in August, slightly higher than the 0.4% consensus.

4 May 2020 Korea's First Deficit in Eight Years Presages the Trade-Driven Q2 Hit (Publication Centre)

Korean exports hit a brick wall in April, unsurprisingly, as lockdowns across the non- China world dealt a body blow to demand.

4 Nov 2019 Are Markets Eyeing a Bottom in EZ GDP Growth? (Publication Centre)

We have spent the past few weeks shifting our story on the EZ economy from one focused on slowing growth and downside risks to a more balanced outlook. It seems that markets are starting to agree with us.

4 Nov 2019 Korea's Export Slump has Bottomed Out... Global Trade will Follow Suit (Publication Centre)

The downturn in global trade looks set to turn a corner, at least judging by the outlook for Korean exports, which are a key bellwether.

7 Jan 2020 Chinese CPI Inflation won't Budge Much on U.S.-Iran Tensions (Publication Centre)

Our chief economist, Ian Shepherdson, set out our initial thoughts on the rising tensions between U.S. and Iran here.

7 June 2019 Did Mr. Draghi Inadvertently Snub Expectations for a Q4 Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

It says a lot about investor expectations that markets' reaction to yesterday's policy announcement by the ECB was marked by slight "disappointment," with EURUSD rallying and EZ bond yields rising.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

This will be as good as it gets for Japanese PPI

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index remains below trend despite looming tax hike

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan: Monetary base growth slowed to 2.8% y/y in August, from 3.7% in July. Bloomberg reports no consensus, Korea: Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 1.0% q/q, from 1.1% in the preliminary report, below the no-change consensus. • Korea: CPI inflation fell to 0.0% in August, from 0.6% in July, below the consensus, 0.2%.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's PPI turning the corner. China's CPI inflation should peak this month ber's punchy trade data.

9 Dec 2019 Japan's Fiscal Boost will Disappoint, Capacity Constraints are a Drag (Publication Centre)

In Friday's Monitor we analysed the draft Japanese budget, as reported by Bloomberg. We suggested that the GDP bang-for-government-expenditure- buck is likely to be less than that implied by the authorities' forecasts.

8 September 2017 Brazil's Central Bank Eases Boldly, but Hints at Slower Cuts Ahead (Publication Centre)

Brazil's improving economic and political situation allowed the BCB to cut the Selic rate by 100bp to 8.25% at its Wednesday meeting, matching expectations.

7 September 2017 The ECB will Set up Markets Today for a QE Decision in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Today's ECB meeting will follow the same script as in July. No-one expects the central bank to make any formal changes to its policy settings. The ECB will keep its main refinancing and deposit rates at zero and -0.4%, respectively.

8 April 2019 Payroll Gains set to be Close to 200K in Q2 Labor Market Still Tightening (Publication Centre)

The return to normal in the March payroll numbers, with a 196K headline increase, is another nail in the coffin of the "imminent recession" theory.

8 February 2019 Shaktikanta Das Starts with a Bang, Changing the Course of RBI Policy (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India shocked most forecasters yesterday, including us, with a 4-to-2 majority voting in favour of a 25-basis point rate cut.

8 Jan 2020 Is this as Good as it Gets for the RMB from a Trade Deal Perspective (Publication Centre)

The trade war with the U.S. has taken its toll on the RMB.

30 Sept 2019 Ignore the Headline the Upturn in Private Profits in China is Reassuring (Publication Centre)

China's industrial profits data for August were a mixed bag.

30 Oct 2019 BoJ Forecasts Due for a Downgrade, Expect a Package of Measures (Publication Centre)

Markets see a strong possibility, though not a probability, that the BoJ will cut rates on Thursday.

27 Nov 2019 Japan's October Retail Sales will Show Tax Hike Volatility (Publication Centre)

Japan's retail sales data--due out on Thursday-- have been badly affected by the October tax hike.

27 February 2019 What to Expect from China's Annual "Two Sessions" Next Week (Publication Centre)

China's annual "two sessions" conference is due to start on Sunday, with the economic targets for this year set to be made official over the course of the meetings.

28 Aug 2019 China's Talk of Austerity Faces H2 Hurdles but it isn't Merely Rhetoric (Publication Centre)

China's finance minister Liu Kun provided his report on China's current fiscal situation to the legislature last Friday.

28 Nov 2019 The Case for Larger PBoC Cuts Grows as Chinese Profits Tank (Publication Centre)

China's abysmal industrial profits data for October underscore why the chances of less- timid monetary easing are rising rapidly.

28 Oct 2019 China's Q3 GDP was Dire, Official Headlines Don't Tell the Half of it (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth slowed to 6.0% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2 and 6.4% in Q1. Consecutive 0.2 percentage points declines are significant in China.

26 Nov 2019 Hong Kong Politely Suggests that Beijing Reconsider its Stance (Publication Centre)

Hong Kong delivered a resounding landslide victory to pro-Democracy parties in district council elections over the weekend.

26 June 2020 Don't be Too Worried About China's Current Account Deficit in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The final numbers for China's balance of payments in the first quarter showed that the current account descended to a $34B deficit, from a surplus of $30B a year earlier.

25 Feb. 2015 Capex Needs to Pick up in Germany to Sustain GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Real GDP in Germany grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, thanks mainly to a 0.4% contribution from private consumption, and a 0.2% boost from net trade. Household consumption grew 2.2% annualised in 2014, the best year for German consumers since 2006.

25 June 2018 In the Race to the BoJ's Inflation Target, our Money is on the Glacier (Publication Centre)

Japan's headline inflation will be volatile for the rest of the year, thanks to movements in the noncore elements.

25 Mar 2020 The Plunge in Japan's Services PMI Confirms a Recession is Underway (Publication Centre)

If Japan's flash PMIs for March are a sign of things to come, then the government really should get moving on fiscal stimulus.

25 October 2018 What's the Target Mr. Draghi Headline or Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

The ECB will not make any major changes to policy today.

29 May 2018 Does Japanese Core Inflation Respond to Capacity Pressures? (Publication Centre)

Tokyo CPI inflation edged down to 0.4% in May, from 0.5% in April.

16 June. 2016 EZ Inflation is in the Twilight Zone, But it Will Get Lighter Soon (Publication Centre)

Final May CPI data in the Eurozone today likely will confirm that inflation pressures edged marginally higher last month. We think inflation increased to -0.1% year-over-year, from -0.2% in April, as a result of slightly higher services inflation, and a reduced drag from falling energy prices.

3 Oct 2019 Don't Expect the Bank of Korea to Flinch from this Week's Soft Data (Publication Centre)

This week's main economic data from Korea--the last batch before the BoK meets on the 16th--missed consensus expectations, further fuelling speculation that it will cut rates for a second time, after pausing in August.

3 Sept 2019 China's Policymakers Hold Their Breath as Recovery Takes its Time (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs show no sign of a recovery yet, but the authorities are sticking to the playbook; they've done the bulk of the stimulus and are waiting for the effects to kick in, but are recognising that they need to make some adjustments.

30 June 2017 EZ Inflation Data are Complicating Life for the ECB and Markets (Publication Centre)

Advance country data indicate that headline EZ inflation fell slightly in June; we think the rate dipped to 1.3% year-over-year, from 1.4% in May.

30 June 2020 Spending in Japan is Stabilising, a Proper Recovery is a Long Way Off (Publication Centre)

Retail sales in Japan rose modestly in May, after collapsing in March and April, as the government tried to put a lid on the country's Covid-19 outbreak.

3 Mar 2020 China's PMIs Mean Our GDP Downgrades are the Right Call (Publication Centre)

Last week we made a big call and further downgraded our China GDP forecasts for Q1; daily data and survey evidence suggested that our initial take, though grim, had not been grim enough.

3 Feb. 2015 Inflation will trough in Q3 (Publication Centre)

One of the questions we have been asked recently is when inflation in the euro area will trough this year. This is difficult to answer without a look at the structural drivers of price pressures in Europe.

29 Oct 2019 China's Economy Still on the Rocks, A Bit More Easing is on its Way (Publication Centre)

Our analysis of the Q3 activity and GDP data in yesterday's Monitor strongly suggests that China's authorities will soon ready further stimulus.

29 Oct 2019 Monetary Stimulus Alone Won't be Able to End the Next Recession (Publication Centre)

Monetary policy usually is the first line of defence whenever a recession hits.

3 Apr 2020 Who Will Finance China's Ballooning Fiscal Deficit (Publication Centre)

China's economic targets are AWOL this year, thanks to Covid-19 disruptions to the legislative calendar... and because policymakers seem unsure of what targets to set in such uncertain times.

3 Dec 2019 Is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI Uptrend Justified (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs put in a better performance in November, with the official gauge ticking up to 50.2 in November, from 49.3 in October, and the Caixin measure little changed, at 51.8, up from 51.7.

25 Aug 2020 August Flash PMIs Suggest Abe's Second Wave Gamble has Paid Off (Publication Centre)

Japan's advance PMI numbers for August suggest that the economy dodged most of the bullets fired by the second wave of Covid-19.

12 Jan. 2015 More Misery for Industrial Production in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing data for the euro area's major economies point to renewed downside risks for GDP growth, despite the likely tailwind to consumption from low oil prices. November industrial production fell 0.1% and 0.3% month-to-month in Germany and France respectively, indicating that the manufacturing sector remains under pressure.

11 June 2020 Promising Money Data Imply the PBoC can Take a Step Back (Publication Centre)

The People's Bank of China likely will be more than content with the latest money and credit data, to the point where it probably won't see the need to cut interest rates further anytime soon.

11 June 2020 The Fed isn't Thinking About Thinking About Hiking, Why Would They (Publication Centre)

The Fed announced no significant policy changes yesterday, but the FOMC reinforced its commitment to maintain "smooth market functioning", by promising to keep its Treasury and mortgage purchases "at least at the current pace".

11 Feb 2020 Phase One Trade Deal Trumped the Virus in China's January PPI (Publication Centre)

The clear threat to demand posed by the coronavirus and China's efforts at containment have sent a shock wave through commodities markets.

11 Dec 2019 The PBoC Could Cut Rates Again this Year, Easing so far is Insufficient (Publication Centre)

China's November money and credit data were a little less grim, with only M2 growth slipping, due to unfavourable base effects.

11 Aug 2020 How Worried Should we be Over Spain's Economic Misery (Publication Centre)

Markets tend to look to Italy as the canary in the coalmine for signs of stress in the EZ economy and financial markets, but we recommend keeping a close eye on Spain too.

11 Nov 2019 Signs of Stabilisation in Chinese Trade, but don't Get too Excited (Publication Centre)

China's October foreign trade headlines beat expectations, but the year-over-year numbers remain grim, with imports falling 6.4%, only a modest improvement from the 8.5% tumble in September.

12 Aug 2020 What do EZ Investor Sentiment Data Tell Us about the Q3 Outlook (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ZEW investor sentiment report in Germany provided an upside surprise.

12 June 2020 Main Capex Pinch in Japan will be in Q3, Stimulus Cushion is Limited (Publication Centre)

Core machine orders in Japan collapsed in April, as expected, falling by 12.0% month-on-month, worse than the minor 0.4% slip in March.

12 May 2020 India's PMIs Show Lockdown Severity, but New Flexibility will Help (Publication Centre)

India's shocking PMIs for April leave little doubt that the second quarter will be bad enough to result in a full-year contraction in 2020 GDP, even if economic activity recovers strongly in the second half.

12 June 2017 China's Policy Choices are all Difficult, can Disaster be Averted? (Publication Centre)

China faces three possible macro outcomes over the next few years. First, the economy could pull off an active transition to consumer-led growth. Second, it could gradually slide into Japan-style growth and inflation, with government debt spiralling up. Third, it could face a full blown debt crisis, where the authorities lose control and China drags the global economy down too

12 July 2017 Andean Policymakers Will Meet Market Expectations Tomorrow (Publication Centre)

Markets are looking for the BCCh to remain on hold and the BCRP to ease on Thursday; we think they will be right. In Chile, the BCCh will hold rates because inflation pressures are absent and economic activity is stabilizing following temporary hits in Q1 and early Q2.

12 Dec 2019 China's Economic Targets will Remain a Political Affair for 2020 (Publication Centre)

China concludes its annual Central Economic Work Conference today, where the economic targets and the agenda for next year are set.

10 Mar 2020 Expect China's Imports to Deteriorate Further this Month (Publication Centre)

China's trade balance flipped to an unadjusted deficit of $7.1B in the first two months of the year, from a $47.2B surplus in December.

10 June 2020 Collapse in Overtime Hours and Pay in April is Damning for Japan's Q1 (Publication Centre)

Private consumption in Japan will take time to recover, even if some semblance of normality returns from this month.

1 March 2019 China's Latest PMIs Give no Reason for Hope Trade Partners Beware (Publication Centre)

Chinese data still are in the midst of Lunar New Year-related noise, so take February's PMIs with a pinch of salt, even though they ostensibly are adjusted for seasonal effects.

1 May 2020 China's Benign Manufacturing PMI Masks Worrying Underlying Trends (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.8 in April, from 52.0 in March. The output sub- index stayed relatively high, inching down only to 53.7 from 54.1, and chiming with our initial take on the industrial production data for March.

1 Dec. 2015 Bund Buyers Beware Higher German inflation Next Year (Publication Centre)

Advance data indicate German inflation rose to 0.4% year-over-year in November, up from 0.3% in October, lifted by higher food and energy price inflation. The upward trend in food prices won't last, but base effects in energy prices will persist, boosting headline inflation significantly in coming months. The details show that services inflation was stable at 1.2% last month, despite state data indicating a fall in volatile leisure and entertainment inflation, while net rent inflation was also stable, at 1.1%.

1 Aug 2019 Trade Talks Restart China's Woes Will Help to Keep Them Going (Publication Centre)

Trade talks between the U.S. and China officially resumed this week, with the first face-to-face meeting of the main negotiators taking place yesterday in Shanghai.

16 January 2019 Falling Core Inflation in France is a Headache for the ECB (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in France eased across the board at the end of last year.

1 Nov 2019 The Thought of a Rate Cut Spooks the BoJ into a Parallel Dimension (Publication Centre)

The BoJ yesterday kept the policy balance rate at -0.1%, and the 10-year yield target at "around zero", in line with the consensus.

1 Sep 2020 Chinese Manufacturing is Peaking, While Services are Still Catching-up (Publication Centre)

The momentum in Chinese manufacturing waned in August, with the official manufacturing PMI slipping marginally to 51.0, from 51.1 in July,

10 Jan 2020 CPI and PPI in China are at Turning Points, but Policy won't Change (Publication Centre)

The year-long surge in CPI inflation in China will soon end.

10 Feb 2020 Lack of Chinese Trade Data Invites Speculation... so Here Goes (Publication Centre)

China's January trade data were scheduled for release on Friday, but instead, the customs authority delayed the publication, saying it would publish the numbers with the February data

10 Dec 2019 Japan's Revised Q3 GDP Growth Reveals a bit More of the Tax Impact (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP growth was revised up, to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.1% in the preliminary reading.

10 Aug 2020 German and French Manufacturing Finished Q2 on a Strong Note (Publication Centre)

Friday's manufacturing and trade data added to the evidence of a solid rebound in the EZ economy at the end of Q2, as lockdowns were lifted.

12 Nov 2019 China's October Money Data Mean a 2020 GDP Growth Downgrade (Publication Centre)

We have downgraded our 2019 and 2020 China GDP forecasts on previous occasions because monetary conditions have been surprisingly unresponsive to lower short-term rates.

13 Apr. Higher Inflation Reflects More Than Just an Easter Boost (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation picked up to 0.5% in March, from 0.3% in February. The jump was entirely attributable to core inflation, which leapt to 1.5%--its highest rate since October 2014--from 1.2%. With core inflation on track to rise further over the next year, we continue to think that markets will be caught out by interest rate rises later this year.

15 July 2020 EZ Manufacturing Workers Face a Difficult Time in the Next Year (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ manufacturing data were slightly underwhelming, at least compared to expectations.

15 June 2017 China's Q2 Growth to Remain Sturdy but Expect a Slower H2 (Publication Centre)

China's industrial production grew at an annualised 7.2% rate by volume in Q1, according to our estimates, up from an average 5.9% rate in the six quar ters through mid-2016.

15 February 2018 The Eurozone Recovery is Over, Welcome to the Expansion (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second estimate of Q4 Eurozone GDP confirmed the upbeat story from the advance report, despite the dip in headline growth.

14 Sept 2020 German Core Inflation is 0.5pp Lower After the July VAT Cut (Publication Centre)

Friday's sole economic report provided further clarity on the impact on Germany's inflation data from the Value-Added-Tax cut in July.

14 Oct 2019 RBI Beware... Inflation in India will Soon Flirt with the 4% Target (Publication Centre)

Today's CPI report from India should raise the pressure on the RBI to abandon its aggressive easing, which has resulted in 135 basis points worth of rate cuts since February.

15 June. Reasons to Remain Calm About Brexit Risk (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, six of the eight opinion polls conducted over the seven days indicate that the U.K. will vote for Brexit on June 23. Our daily updated Chart of the Week, on page 3, shows the current state of play.

15 May 2020 Through the Looking Glass With Misleading EZ Economic Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data provided further evidence of the EZ economy's response to the Covid-19 shock, though we recommend that investors take the numbers with a pinch of salt. In Germany, the final CPI report for April showed that headline inflation slipped to 0.9% year-over-year, from 1.4% in March, trivially above the first estimate, 0.8%.

15 September 2017 Growth in EZ Car Sales Rose in August, but the Trend Has Slowed (Publication Centre)

Momentum in new EZ car sales improved slightly in the middle of Q3. New registrations in the euro area rose 6.8% year-over-year in August, accelerating marginally from a 5.3% increase in July.

16 Dec 2019 "Phase One" Picked Low-Hanging Fruit... Now for the Hard Part (Publication Centre)

ate last week, China and the U.S. reached an agreement, averting the planned U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese consumer goods that were slated to be imposed on December 15.

15 Oct. 2015 Headline Inflation to Slip Below Zero, but Not For Long (Publication Centre)

The headline CPI inflation rate almost certainly dipped below zero in September, barring a startling and deeply improbable surge in the core. We look for a 0.4% month-to-month headline drop, driven by an 11% plunge in gasoline prices, pushing the year-over-year rate to -0.3%. This is of no real economic significance, not least because hugely unfavorable base effects mean the year-over-year rate almost certainly will rise sharply over the next few months, reaching about 1¾% as soon as January.

15 Oct 2019 China's Year-over-Year Trade Figures are Overly Grim (Publication Centre)

China's September imports missed expectations, but commentators and markets tend to focus on the year-over-year numbers.

15 Nov 2019 Chinese Growth Momentum Under Attack from all Angles (Publication Centre)

China's main activity data for October disappointed across the board, strengthening our conviction that the PBoC probably isn't quite done with easing this year.

14 Nov 2019 Japan's PPI Underscores More Muted Impact of Tax Hike on Prices (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI data yesterday confirmed that October was a turning point for prices--due to the consumption tax hike--despite the surprising stability of CPI inflation in Tokyo for the same month.

14 July. 2016 EZ GDP Growth all but Stalled in Q2, as Domestic Demand Slowed (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that industrial production in the Eurozone stumbled in May. Production fell 1.2% month-to-month, driven by weakness in all major economies and falling output in all sub-industries. The poor headline follows an upwardly revised 1.4% jump in April, which means that production rose marginally in the first two months of the second quarter.

13 Jan. 2015 - Small Business Sector on the Brink of Normalization (Publication Centre)

Within the next few month, and perhaps as soon as next month, the gap between the headline NFIB and ISM manufacturing indexes, shown in our first chart, will close for the first time since late 2008.

13 Dec 2019 Japan's Machine Orders Hack a Hole in the Notion of Resilient Capex (Publication Centre)

We've been consistent in saying that Japanese capex would roll over this year, after strength in the first three quarters was seen by the authorities and many commentators as a sign of resilience.

13 Aug 2020 Solid EZ Manufacturing Data, but Still Far Off a Full Recovery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ industrial production report conformed to expectations.

13 April 2018 French Inflation is Shooting Higher (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in France increased significantly at the start of the year.

13 March 2019 China's Slowing Services Inflation Sheds Light on the Labour Market (Publication Centre)

Data over the weekend revealed a further slowdown in China's CPI inflation, to 1.5% in February, from 1.7% in January.

13 May 2020 Punchy Money Data for April Keep China's Recovery Hopes Alive (Publication Centre)

China's money data continued to improve in April, bolstering the economy's recovery prospects.

14 Apr. 2016 The Eurozone's Manufacturing Outperformance Likely Won't Last (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in the euro area dipped in February. Output fell 0.8% month-to-month pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.8% from a revised 2.9% in January. This indicates that Eurozone manufacturing continues to lag the pace seen in previous business cycle upturns.

14 Aug 2019 Japanese Policymakers Shouldn't take Domestic Demand For Granted (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q2 GDP was driven by the twin pillars of private consumption and capex.

14 Apr 2020 Much Better Money Data from China... Better Late than Never (Publication Centre)

We're doing a wrap-up of the data that were released last week while we were away, and the Chinese numbers were both a hit and a miss.

13 Nov 2019 Japan's Pending Stimulus Marks a Return to the Bad Old Days (Publication Centre)

PM Abe last week asked the cabinet to put together a package of measures in a 15-month budget aimed at bolstering GDP growth through productivity enhancement, in addition to the shorter-term goal of disaster recovery.

13 May. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Jumped in Q1, but Likely Will Nosedive in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Activity in the Eurozone industrial sector cooled at the end of the first quarter. Manufacturing production declined 0.8% month-to-month in March, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.2% from a revised 1.0% in February. Over Q1 as a whole, though, the story was positive.

FINANCIAL TIMES - Eurozone climbs out of deflation in June (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone Inflation.

18 June 2020 Deflation will be Just a Whisker Away in the Summer (Publication Centre)

The drop in CPI inflation to 0.5% in May, from 0.8% in April, brought it another big step closer to the near-zero rate we foresee in the second half of this year.

30 Oct. 2015 Deflation is Yesterday's Story - Get Ready for Higher Inflation (Publication Centre)

Advance data from Germany and Spain indicate that Eurozone inflation rebounded in October. We think inflation rose to 0.2% year-over-year from -0.2%, and German data suggest the main boost will come from both core and food inflation. Inflation in Germany rose to 0.3% year-over-year from 0.0% in September, lifted by an increase in inflation of leisure and entertainment, hotels and durable goods. Food inflation also rose to 1.6% from 1.1% in September, due to surging prices for fresh fruit and vegetables.

2 Mar. 2015 Eurozone Deflation Pressures Eased Slightly in February (Publication Centre)

Advance inflation data in the Eurozone will likely surprise to the upside today. The consensus forecast expects inflation to rise slightly to -0.5% year-over-year in February from -0.6% in January, but we expect a much bigger jump, to -0.2% year-over-year.

19 Jan. 2016 Services Will Push up German Core Inflation this Year (Publication Centre)

Detailed German inflation data today likely will confirm that inflation fell to 0.3% year-over-year in December from 0.4% in November, mainly due to falling food inflation. Preliminary data suggest that food inflation declined sharply to 1.4% from 2.3% in November, offsetting slower energy price deflation, due to base effects. Food and energy prices are wild cards in the next three-to-six months, and could weigh on the headline, given the renewed weakness in oil prices, and lower fresh food prices. Core inflation, however, is a lagging indicator, and will continue to increase this year.

19 Jan. 2015 Volatility Returns to the Eurozone, but Stabilisation is Likely Soon (Publication Centre)

Investors have been used to central bank policy as a source of low volatility in recent years, but the last six months' events have changed that. Uncertainty over the timing of Fed policy changes this year, an ECB facing political obstacles to fight deflation, and last week's dramatic decision by the SNB to scrap the euro peg have significantly contributed to rising discomfort for markets since the middle of last year.

17 Dec. 2014 Sentiment Surges, but Russian Rout Forces a Reminder of 1998 (Publication Centre)

With Russia and some other emerging economies now in full panic mode, the financial market story is sharply divided between two narratives. Either the plunge in global energy prices acts as positive catalyst by boosting real incomes and allowing most central banks to run easier monetary policy or it is a sign that risk assets are about to hit a deflationary wall.

20 Jan. 2016 EZ Inflation is Weak, but Dip in Services Inflation Won't Last (Publication Centre)

Final inflation data yesterday confirmed Eurozone inflation pressures are still low. Inflation rose to 0.2% year-over-year in December from 0.1% in November, lifted by easing deflation in energy prices. Base effects likely will lift energy price inflation in January and February, but the year-over-year rate will dip in Q2, if the oil price remains depressed. Food inflation fell in December due to a decline in unprocessed food prices, and we see further downside in Q1. Core inflation was unchanged, with the key surprise that services inflation fell to 1.1% from 1.2% in November. We think this dip will be temporary, however, and our first chart shows that risks to services inflation are tilted to the upside.

18 June 2020 EZ Energy Inflation has Troughed, the Core is still Uncertain (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI data for May confirmed that the EZ economy is within touching distance of headline deflation.

20 May. 2016 Falling PPI Goods Prices Don't Signal Lower Core CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

If you gave us $100, we'd put $90 on inflation, headline and core, being higher a year from now than it is today. Our view, however, is not universally shared, and some commentators continue to argue that the U.S. faces deflation risks. Exhibit one for this view is our first chart, which shows a high correlation between the PPI for finished goods prices and the CPI inflation rate, ex-shelter.

24 Nov. 2015 Bullish PMI Survey Won't Prevent Further ECB Stimulus (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI reports repeated the message of a firm cyclical Eurozone recovery, despite investors' angst over deflation and the underwhelming Q3 GDP data earlier this month. The composite index in the zone rose to a 54-month high of 54.4 in November from 53.9 in October, lifted by strong output and solid new business growth. Our first chart shows the rise in the PMI points to slight upside risks in Q4 to the four quarter trend in real GDP growth of 0.4% per quarter.

26 May. 2016 EZ Short-Term Yields Could Rise Abruptly as Inflation Rebounds (Publication Centre)

Short-term interest rates in the Eurozone continue to imply that the ECB will lower rates further this year. Two-year yields have been stuck in a very tight range around -0.5% since March, indicating that investors expect the central bank again to reduce its deposit rate from its current level of -0.4%. This is not our base case, though, and we think that investors focused on deflation and a dovish ECB will be caught out by higher inflation.

23 Jan. 2015 The ECB gets ahead of the curve with significant QE program (Publication Centre)

The ECB sent a strong signal yesterday that it is ready to fight deflation with a full range of unconventional monetary policy tools. Asset purchases, including sovereigns, to the tune of €60B per month will begin in March, and will run until end-September 2016, but Mr. Draghi noted that purchases could continue if the ECB is not satisfied with the trajectory of inflation.

21 Sept. 2015 Fed Abstention Increases the Risk of More QE from the ECB this Year (Publication Centre)

ECB growth bears looking for the Fed to move in order to take the sting out of the euro's recent strength were disappointed last week. The FOMC refrained from a hike, referring to the risk that slowing growth in China and emerging markets could "restrain economic activity" and put "downward pressure on inflation in the near term." In doing so, the Fed had an eye on the same global risks as the ECB, highlighting increased fears of deflation risks in China, despite a rosier domestic outlook.

21 May 2020 EZ Core Inflation will Take a Hit, but a Sustained Slide is Unlikely (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI report for April confirmed that the Eurozone is edging towards deflation.

16 Sept. 2015 Will Downbeat Sentiment Push the ECB into More QE this Year? (Publication Centre)

Economic data are telling a story of a strengthening recovery, but downbeat investor sentiment points to a more difficult environment. The headline ZEW expectations index fell to a ten-month low of 12.1 in September, from 25.0 in August. This takes sentiment back to levels not seen before QE was announced, highlighting the increasing worry that deflation risks and low growth in China will derail the recovery. We don't agree, but we can't be sure the ECB thinks the same, and risks of additional stimulus this year have increased.

15 Jan. 2015 Inflation Data Confirm Investment Malaise in the French Economy (Publication Centre)

France just about avoided slipping into deflation in December, with the CPI rising 0.1% year-over-year, down from 0.3% in November. The 4.4% drop in the energy component should have pushed inflation below zero, but a seasonal increase in tourism services was enough to offset the drag from oil prices.

05 Jan. 2016 Don't be Tricked by Fall in German Inflation - the Dip will be Temporary (Publication Centre)

Advance data suggest German inflation pressures eased towards the end of last year. Inflation fell to 0.3% year-over-year in December from 0.4% in November, likely due to a fall in food inflation--mean reversion in fruit and vegetables inflation--and a sharp fall in the annual price increase of clothing and shoes. State data indicate that deflation in household utilities persisted, but that inflation of fuel and transportation is slowly recovering. Assuming a stable oil price in coming months, base effects should push up energy price inflation in the first quarter, though it should then fall again slightly in the second quarter. Overall, though, we expect energy price inflation gradually to stabilise and recover this year.

03 Feb. 2016 Would a Renminbi Depreciation Derail the Pick-up in U.K. Inflation? (Publication Centre)

Investors are increasingly anxious that an intentional sharp devaluation of the renminbi, aiming to combat China's slowdown, might lead to prolonged deflation in the West, particularly in an economy as open as the U.K.

*Sept. 2015 - Eurozone Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Ignore the Chinese deflation panic......The cyclical recovery is on track, and inflation is rising

*Oct. 2015 - Eurozone Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Worries over China and deflation linger...and will likely push the ECB to extend QE this month

06 Jan. 2016 Spotlight Back on the ECB after Soft Eurozone Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Disappointing inflation data remain a critical dark spot in the context of otherwise solid evidence of a firming cyclical recovery. Advance data indicate that inflation was unchanged at a mere 0.2% year-over-year in December, with falling food inflation and a dip in services inflation offsetting easing deflation in energy prices. Headline inflation likely will be volatile in coming months. Base effects will push up the year-over-year rate in energy price inflation further in Q1, but we are wary that continued declines in food inflation could offset this effect.

1 Sept. 2016 Soft EZ Inflation Data Pave the Way for QE Extension Next Week (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ CPI report points to a dovish backdrop for next week's ECB meeting. Advance data show that inflation was unchanged at 0.2% year-overyear in August, lower than the consensus, 0.3%. The headline was held back by a dip in the core rate to 0.8%, from 0.9% in July; this offset a lower deflationary drag from energy prices.

14 October. 2016 German Inflation Will Rise Further in the Fourth Quarter (Publication Centre)

German inflation pressures are rising. Yesterday's final September CPI report showed that inflation rose to 0.7% year-over-year, from 0.4% in August, chiefly as a result of continued easing of deflation in energy prices.

14 December 2016 German and Eurozone Inflation is About to Shoot Higher (Publication Centre)

German inflation pressures were unchanged last month. The CPI index rose 0.8% year-over-year, matching the increase in October, and in line with the consensus and initial estimate. Energy deflation intensified marginally, as a result of lower prices for household utilities.

13 July. 2016 German Inflation is Rising, but Will Bund Yields Pay Attention? (Publication Centre)

The final June inflation report from Germany yesterday confirmed that pressures are rising. Inflation rose to 0.3% year-over-year in June, up from 0.1% in May, mainly due to higher energy prices. Household energy prices--utilities--fell 4.9% year-over-year, up from a 5.7% decline in May, while deflation in petrol prices eased to -9.4%, up from -12.1% in May.

11 Apr. Slowly but Surely, Inflation is Creeping Back Towards its Target (Publication Centre)

Consumer price figures for March, released on Tuesday, likely will show that CPI inflation has taken another step up, probably to 0.4% from 0.3% in February. This should jettison lingering fears that the U.K. is mired in deflation and bolster the Monetary Policy Committee's conviction that inflation will hit the 2% target within the next two years.

14 September 2016 German Inflation is Heading Higher, Despite Pause in August (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI report in Germany confirmed the initial estimate that inflation was unchanged at 0.4% year-over-year in August. Deflation in energy prices eased further, but the headline was pegged back by a small fall in the core rate to 1.2% year-over- year, from 1.3% in July.

28 June 2017 A Difficult Balancing Act for Mr. Draghi on Growth and Inflation (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi's speech yesterday in Portugal, at the ECB forum on Central Banking, pushed the euro and EZ government bond yields higher. The markets' hawkish interpretation was linked to the president's comment that "The threat of deflation is gone and reflationary forces are at play."

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese banks send a message: no rate corridor cut, no LPR reduction, PPI deflation in Korea in Q2 seems inevitable

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade balance should recover as domestic weakness sets in; Japan's manufacturing PMI undermines H2 recovery hopes; Japan's services PMI paints a damning picture of Q2; Korea's export recovery from the April low will be more gradual than the descent; A lot more downside left for PPI deflation in Korea before Q3 trough

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ keeps it promises vague. Japan's April is turning out quite nicely. PPI inflation in Korea slipped in May, and is heading for deflation in Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation has troughed; Japan's budget forecasts for next year are on the rosy side; China's LPR stability reflects precarious banking sector; Korea should make a complete exit from PPI deflation this month

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

CPI deflation in Japan is looming, due to the collapse in global oil prices. January will be as good as it gets for Japan's all-industry activity index

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan will be in deflation in a few months. Stimulus fails to buoy Japan's construction sector. China's smaller TMLF injection means the facility has been superseded, while interbank rates already are low.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 26 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Energy prices in Tokyo generally lag... deflation probably took hold nationwide this month

EZ Datanote: Saxony Inflation, Germany, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still depressed by deflation in energy prices; the core looks robust.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Deflation in manufactured goods is still a big drag.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The EZ will soon be in deflation, temporarily.

EZ Datanote Consumers' Spending and Inflation, France 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: French consumers roared back mid-way through Q2; deflation ahead for the CPI?

29 Jan. 2015 Inflation data will be kind to bondholders, for now (Publication Centre)

Last week's QE announcement has made Eurozone inflation prints less important for investors, but the market will still be watching for signs of a turning point in benchmark bond yields. The data are unlikely to challenge bond holders in the short run, however, as the Eurozone probably slipped deeper into deflation in January.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's firms aren't passing on tax hikes after all. China takes full advantage of previous oil price declines. Japan's core machine orders better than expected, but that won't help Q2. Japan is heading for a spell of sustained PPI deflation in H2. Better May jobs report will help to keep any BoK rate cuts at bay.

Asia Datanote: CPI, Korea, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit from oil has just started; deflation is imminent.

Asia Datanote: National CPI, Japan, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Japan will be in deflation in a few months

Asia Datanote: China PPI, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: PPI back in deflation until the fall

Asia Datanote Producer Prices, China, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The RMB's run is slowing the exit from deflation.

Asia Datanote National CPI, Japan, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Deflation is just around the corner

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's exit from PPI deflation will soon hit speed bumps

Asia Datanote: Nationwide Consumer Prices, Japan, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Deflation in Japan is looming, due to the collapse in oil prices

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's machinery orders are set to stay weak. Japan's PPI deflation likely just troughed.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's PPI back in deflation until fall. China's February CPI inflation was a battle between food and services. M2 growth in Japan was due a further uptick, given the perkier trends at the margin. Favourable base effects flattered Japanese machine tool orders in February.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Tankan points to a q/q contraction for capex in Q3, but GDP growth overall will stay strong. Japan's unemployment steady, but details bode ill for Q4. September's full-month data dispel some export worries in Korea; expect a Q3 lift from net trade. Korea's PMI pours cold water on the spectacular jobs report for August. September is as bad as it gets for Korean CPI deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Sharper energy and education deflation offset a jump in food prices in Tokyo. Lockdowns in Europe and the U.S. knock out Korean exports in April.

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Euro slump offers lifeline to ailing Europe (Media Centre)

Claus Vistesen comments on Eurozone deflation

8 February 2019 Fiscal Deadlines Promise Drama, but Probably not Crises (Publication Centre)

Two fiscal deadlines are on the near-horizon.

Consistently Right

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