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31 March 2017 Eurozone Inflation Data will Undershoot the Consensus Today (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance data from Germany and Spain suggest that today's Eurozone inflation report will undershoot the consensus. In Germany, headline inflation slipped to 1.6% in March from 2.2% in February, and in Spain the headline rate plunged to 2.3% from 3.0%.

26 September 2017 Is the Most Important Data--Wage Growth--Forecastable? (Publication Centre)

Markets will be hyper-sensitive to U.K. data releases following the MPC's warning that it is on the verge of raising interest rates.

27 February 2019 Consumer Sentiment Signal better EZ Consumption Data in H1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer sentiment data in the two major euro area economies were mixed, but they still support our view that a rebound in EZ consumption growth is underway.

15 November 2017 Chinese October Activity Data Were Mixed but Will Weaken Over Winter (Publication Centre)

The Chinese activity data published yesterday were a mixed bag, with headline retail sales and production weakening, while FAI growth was stable. We compile our own indices for all three, to crosscheck the official versions.

20 April 2017 Don't Miss Today's Soaring Eurozone Construction Data (Publication Centre)

Markets tend to ignore Eurozone construction data, but we suspect today's report will be an exception to that rule. Our first chart shows that we're forecasting a 8.5% month-to-month leap in February EZ construction output, and we also expect an upward revision to January's numbers.

7 July. 2015 May Trade Data Today are Critical to Q2 GDP Growth Estimates (Publication Centre)

Markets often pay little attention to the monthly foreign trade numbers, but today's May data are important because they could easily make a big difference to expectations for second quarter GDP growth. The key question is the extent to which exports have recovered since the port dispute on the West Coast, which severely distorted trade flows in the early part of the year.

22 Feb. 2016 Survey Data Will Weaken in Q1, But Won't Signal a Major Downturn (Publication Centre)

Economic survey data this week will give the first clear evidence on whether recent market volatility has dented Eurozone confidence. The key business and consumer surveys dipped in January, and we now expect further declines, starting with today's PMI data. We think the composite index fell slightly to 53.0 in February from 53.6 in January.

7 July. 2016 June ADP Set to be Constrained by Weak May Payroll Data (Publication Centre)

We have argued frequently that the ADP employment report is not a reliable advance payroll indicator--see our Monitor of May 4, for example-- so for now we'll just note that it is generated by a regression model which includes a host of nonpayroll data and the official jobs numbers from the previous month. It is not based solely on reports from employers who use ADP for payroll processing, despite ADP's best efforts to insinuate that it is.

27 Jan 2020 The EZ PMIs were Soft in January, but the German Data were Solid (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMI data were a mixed bag.

12 Feb 2020 GDP Data Highlight Scope for a Consumer-led Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The latest GDP data confirm that the economy ended last year on a very weak note.

12 Mar 2020 China's Money and Credit Data Show No Room for Complacency (Publication Centre)

China's money and credit data for February were reassuring, at least when compared with the doomsday scenario painted, so far, by other key indicators for last month.

12 March 2018 January Data Point to Slower GDP Growth in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Last week's official data supported our forecast that GDP growth likely will slow further in Q1, suggesting that a May rate hike is not the sure bet that markets assume.

14 Oct 2019 If German CPI Data won't Guide Bunds, Maybe Fiscal Policy will (Publication Centre)

Friday's data added further colour to the September CPI data for the Eurozone.

6 Jan 2020 Risks are Tilted to the Upside for this Week's EZ Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Friday's early EZ CPI data for December were red hot. Headline HICP inflation in Germany jumped to 1.5%, from 1.3% in November, while the headline rate in France increased by 0.4pp, to 1.6%.

2 Mar 2020 Japan's Labour Data in Disarray, Early Signs of Virus Worries? (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour data threw another January curve ball this year--last year it was wages--with a change in the standards for job openings.

17 Mar 2020 There is Nothing Remotely Like Q1 in Historical Chinese Data (Publication Centre)

We lack an adjective sufficiently strong to describe China's February activity data.

7 September 2018 First Signs of EM Weakness in the Eurozone Hard Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in German threw off a nasty surprise.

1 Apr 2020 Brazil and Chile Pre-Covid Data were Solid, but the Good News won't Last (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in LatAm are the last calm before the coronavirus storm.

1 Apr 2020 Your Guide to the German Labour Market Data and Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's March labour market data in Germany were surprisingly strong

17 Dec 2019 Signs of Stabilisation in Chinese Data, but not yet a Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's activity data outperformed expectations in November.

11 December 2018 Macro Data set to Split: Consumer Strength, Industrial Weakness (Publication Centre)

The next few months, perhaps the whole of the first quarter, are likely to see a clear split in the U.S. economic data, with numbers from the consumer side of the economy looking much better than the industrial numbers.

21 February 2017 Are EZ Survey Data Overestimating Momentum in the Economy? (Publication Centre)

We think this week's main economic surveys in the Eurozone will take a step back following a steady rise since the end of Q3. Today's composite PMI in the Eurozone likely slipped to 54.0 in February, from 54.4 in January, mainly due to a dip in the manufacturing component. Even if we're right about slightly weaker survey data in February, though, it is unlikely to change the story of a stable and solid cyclical expansion in the EZ.

17 December 2018 The Grinch Has Taken Charge of Economic Data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy finished last week with a horrendous set of economic data.

25 Sept 2019 More Bad News from the IFO, but the INSEE Data are More Upbeat (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's business confidence data in the EZ core were mixed.

10 Nov. 2015 Trade Data Confirm Our Worst Fears for German Q3 GDP (Publication Centre)

German trade data yesterday added further evidence that net exports likely will wreak havoc with the Q3 GDP report this week. Exports rose 2.6% month-to-month in September, partially rebounding from a 5.2% plunge in August. But imports jumped 3.6%, further adding to the net trade drag on a quarterly basis. Our first chart shows our estimate of real net trade in Q3 as the worst since the collapse in 2008-to-09.

26 June 2018 Low Inventory Still Lifting Home Prices Ignore So Case Shiller Data (Publication Centre)

Today brings more housing market data, in the form of the Case-Shiller home price report for April.

10 Feb 2020 Lack of Chinese Trade Data Invites Speculation... so Here Goes (Publication Centre)

China's January trade data were scheduled for release on Friday, but instead, the customs authority delayed the publication, saying it would publish the numbers with the February data

21 February 2018 Labour Data Won't be Hot Enough to Compel the MPC to Hike in May (Publication Centre)

December's labour market report, released today, won't be a game-changer for the near-term outlook for interest rates; January data will be released before the MPC meets in March, and February data will be available at its key meeting in May.

11 March 2019 Early Evidence Points to Solid EZ Manufacturing Data in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's manufacturing data in the Eurozone were mixed.

25 February 2019 The IFO is still Bleak, but the German GDP Data are Nuanced (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data in Germany left markets with a confused picture of the Eurozone's largest economy.

1 August 2017 Money Data Show Diverging Household and Corporate Fortunes (Publication Centre)

The latest money and credit data highlight that the financial fortunes of firms and households have begun to differ markedly. Private non- financial corporations--PNFCs--are enjoying strong growth in their broad money holdings. The 1.2% month-to-month increase in PNFC's M4 was the largest rise since August 2016, and it lifted the year- over-year growth rate to 9.3%, from 9.0% in May.

4 May 2017 Strong Q1 GDP Data in the EZ, but the Annualised Trend is not 2% (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone enjoyed a strong start to 2017. Yesterday's advance data showed that real GDP rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, a similar pace to Q4, which was revised up by 0.1 percentage points. The year-over-year rate dipped to 1.7%, from an upwardly revised 1.8% in Q4.

15 February 2019 Ignore Germany and Italy for a Bit, and the EZ Q4 GDP Data are Solid (Publication Centre)

The EZ Q4 GDP data narrowly avoided a downward revision in yesterday's second estimate.

15 Jan. 2016 Don't Believe Everything You See in Germany's GDP Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's preliminary full-year GDP data in Germany tell a cautionary tale of the dangers in taking national accounts at face value. The headline data suggest real GDP growth rose to 1.7% in 2015, up slightly from 1.6% in 2014, but these data are not adjusted for calendar effects. The working-day adjusted measure buried in the press release instead indicates that growth slowed marginally to 1.5% from 1.6% in 2014.

25 Jan. 2016 Last Week's Data Reinforce Brazil's Doves - Rates are Now on Hold (Publication Centre)

The bad news on economic activity keeps coming for Brazil. The formal payroll employment report-- CAGED--for December was very weak, with 120K net jobs eliminated, compared to a 40K net destruction in December 2014, according to our seasonal adjustment. The severe downturn has translated into huge job losses. The economy eliminated 1.5 million jobs last year, compared to 152K gains in 2014. Last year's job destruction was the worst since the data series started in 1992. The payroll losses have been broad-based, but manufacturing has been hit very hard, with 606K jobs eliminated, followed by civil construction and services. Since the end of 2014, the crisis has hit one sector after another.

1 February 2018 New Wage Data Do Not Meaningfully Re-Write History (Publication Centre)

Experimental figures, released earlier this week, suggest that wages have increased at a faster rate than indicated by the average weekly earnings--AWE--data.

28 September 2016 Strong EZ Money Supply Data, but Lending Details Mixed (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's money supply data in the Eurozone were solid across the board. Growth in headline M3 rose to 5.1% year-over-year in August, up from a 4.9% increase in July. A rebound in narrow money growth was the key driver of the gain, with seasonally- and calendar-adjusted M1 rising 8.9% year-over-year, up from July's 8.4%.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downward revisions soften the blow from October's data.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japanese labour data show early signs of virus hit. Japan's industrial production in a slow recovery... pre-virus. Japan's retail sales still trying to make up lost ground after the tax hike. Tokyo prices already showing signs of virus hit? Korean industrial production wobbles before virus hit.

6 Feb 2020 Korea's Trade Data for January Show a Modest Virus Hit, For Now (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade data for January provided the first real glimpse of the potential hit to international flows from the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.

6 December. 2016 PMI Data Signal a Solid End to 2016 for the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

The final EZ PMI data for November yesterday confirmed that the composite index in the Eurozone rose to an 11-month high of 53.9, from 53.3 in October. The key driver was an improvement in services, boosted by stronger data in all the major economies. Manufacturing activity also improved, though, and the details showed that new business growth was robust in both sectors.

9 July 2018 May GDP Data will have the Final Word on an August Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Mark Carney revealed last week that recent data had given him "greater confidence" that the weakness of Q1 GDP was almost entirely due to severe weather.

24 May 2019 A Little bit of Everything in the May EZ Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data were a mixed bag. The composite EZ PMI edged higher in May to 51.6, from 51.5 in April, but the details were less upbeat, and also slightly confusing.

19 February 2019 How to Make Sense of Today's Eurozone Construction Data (Publication Centre)

Judging by the monthly production data, construction in the Eurozone slowed sharply in the second half of 2018.

9 November 2017 Claims Data Look Great, but Payrolls are Driven More by Shifts in Hiring (Publication Centre)

We were pretty sure that the underlying trend in jobless claims had bottomed, in the high 230s, before the hurricanes began to distort the data in early September.

9 February 2018 Hard Data Point to a Slowdown in Q4 German GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

In contrast to the strong December trade numbers in France--see here--yesterday's German data were soft. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus dipped to €21.5B in December, from €22.3B in November.

13 June 2018 Labour Data are Simply too Weak for the MPC to Hike in August (Publication Centre)

April's labour market data show that slack in the job market is no longer declining, while wage growth still isn't recovering. As a result, we no longer think that the MPC will raise Bank Rate in August and now expect the Committee to stand pat until the first half of 2019.

23 Aug 2019 Further Evidence of Resilience in the Eurozone PMI Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's August PMI data in the euro area ran counter to the otherwise gloomy signals from the ZEW and Sentix investor sentiment indices.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's core machine orders spell further capex woes; Japan's trade data show some early virus hit, but worse is to come

3 Feb 2020 China's January Survey Data Imply Weakness before the Virus Hit (Publication Centre)

The official PMIs suggest that the January survey data have escaped the worst of the hit from the virus.

5 October 2018 EZ Three EZ Data-Points to Watch in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Markets tend to take an eclectic view on macroeconomic data in the Eurozone.

14 November 2017 Poor EZ Production Data Won't Dent Second Q3 GDP Estimate (Publication Centre)

Soft September data in Germany and Italy suggest that today's industrial production report in the Eurozone will be poor. Our first chart shows that data from the major EZ economies point to a 0.8% month-to- month fall in September.

16 August 2017 Better Q2 Data in Colombia Ease Pressure on BanRep, for now (Publication Centre)

Colombian activity data released this week were weak, but mostly better than we expected. Real GDP rose 0.7% quarter- on-quarter in Q2, in contrast to the 0.3% fall in Q1, when the economy was hit by the lagged effect of last year's monetary tightening and the one-off VAT increase.

24 January 2017 EZ Economic Data Will Struggle to Live Up to Expectations in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Consensus forecasts expect further gains in this week's key EZ business surveys, but the data will struggle to live up to expectations. The headline EZ PMIs, the IFO in Germany, and French manufacturing sentiment have increased almost uninterruptedly since August, and we think the consensus is getting ahead of itself expecting further gains. Our first chart shows that macroeconomic surprise indices in the euro area have jumped to levels which usually have been followed by mean-reversion.

3 December 2018 Soft Economic Data in the EZ are Priced-in by Rates Markets (Publication Centre)

Friday's inflation and labour market data in the Eurozone were dovish.

13 October 2017 Brazilian Consumption is Picking Up, Despite August's Poor Data (Publication Centre)

Brazil's retail sales data undershot consensus in August, falling by 0.5% after four straight gains. But we think this merely a temporary softening, following the strong performance in recent months.

18 July 2017 China is Slowing, not Rebounding. the Headline Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

Chinese official headline data paint a picture of a strengthening economy in Q2. Our analysis shows a sharply contrasting picture. China's nominal GDP, real GDP and deflators are often internally inconsistent.

12 September. 2016 More Poor Data Signal Slow Start to Q3 (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data added to the evidence that the German economy stumbled in July. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus slipped to €19.4B, from a revised €21.4B in June.

13 December. 2016 Today's NFIB Labor Data are not New, but they are Important (Publication Centre)

The falling unemployment rate and the threat it poses to the inflation outlook mean that the labor market numbers in the NFIB small business survey attract more attention than the other data in the report.

29 April 2019 More Soft Surveys in the EZ, but the Q1 GDP Data Should Be Solid (Publication Centre)

The EZ economic survey data for April were disappointing in our absence.

14 Aug 2019 Labour Market Data Point to Higher Rates if a No-Deal Brexit is Averted (Publication Centre)

Another month, another strong set of labour market data which undermine the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate, provided a no-deal Brexit is avoided.

8 Oct 2019 A Few Bright Spots in the Still- Weak German New Orders Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in Germany were poor, but not as weak as implied by the headline.

EZ Datanote: EZ Industrial Production and ZEW (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid production data in Q1, but setback looms in Q2.

EZ Datanote: Germany Factory Orders, EZ PMIs, and Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid EZ retail sales and German new orders; and upward revisions to the PMIs.

12 March 2018 Weak Production Data Signal Soft January in Germany and France (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production headlines in the Eurozone were weak, but the details tell a more nuanced story.

12 March 2019 The Data are Choppy, but Chinese Monetary Conditions are Loosening (Publication Centre)

Monetary policy loosening over the last year implies that China's M1 growth already should be picking up.

15 March 2019 China's Activity Data Aren't as Bad as they Look on the Surface (Publication Centre)

The headlines of China's main activity gauges paint a dreary picture of the start of the year, implying a slowdown.

13 April 2018 Decent Industrial Data in Mexico, but Brazilian Retail Sales Weaken (Publication Centre)

Mexico's February industrial production report was weaker than markets expected. Output expanded by 0.7% year-over-year, below the consensus, 1.2%, and slowing from 0.9% in January.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim, but probably overstates payroll weakness.

EZ Datanote: Advance EZ PMIs and IFO, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stabilisation at best; details remain depressing reading.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: A sharp increase on the month, but underlying pressures remain tame.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Underlying pressures are modest, and food prices are starting to stabilise.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing gain fails to offset weakness elsewhere.

11 October 2017 Hard Data Suggest German GDP Growth Slowed Slightly in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Germany's nominal external surplus rebounded smartly over the summer, but real net trade looks set to be a drag on Q3 GDP growth, again. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus increased to €21.6B in August from a revised €19.3B in July.

12 Feb. 2016 Poor EZ Q4 GDP Data Likely Already Priced-in by Markets (Publication Centre)

Today's Q4 GDP report in the Eurozone likely will show that growth slowed again at the end of last year. We think GDP growth dipped to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, down from 0.3% in Q3, and risks to our forecast are firmly tilted to the downside. The initial release does not contain details, but we think a slowdown in consumers' spending and a drag from net exports were the main drivers of the softening.

U.S. Datanote: Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: The trend is back to the cycle low.

LatAm Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil (Publication Centre)

In one line: The cautious approach continues as the economy struggles and uncertainty remains high

15 January 2019 China's Trade Data will get Nastier but Expect a V-Shaped Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's December foreign trade numbers were unpleasant, with both exports and imports falling year-over-year, after rising, albeit slowly in November.

EZ Datanote: GDP and Employment, EZ, Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid overall; but an investment slowdown looms.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rates on hold; trade tensions are a key risk to start policy normalization.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery from the Q4 stock market hit continues apace.

U.S. Datanote: NFIB Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but still an incomplete recovery.

11 March 2019 Inflation Data in the Andes Validate Forecasts for Stable Interest Rates (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Andes remains in check and the near term will be benign, suggesting that central banks will remain on hold over the coming months.

14 September 2018 MPC Emphasises Rising Downside Risks, Rather than Better GDP Data (Publication Centre)

The MPC surprised nobody yesterday by voting unanimously to keep Bank Rate at 0.75% and to maintain the stocks of gilt and corporate bond purchases at £435B and £10B, respectively.

LatAm Datanote: Final GDP, Mexico, Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A poor start to the year due to broadbased weakness.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid export headline, but net trade probably fell in Q1.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Details indicate that downside pressure is much less than headlines suggest.

U.S. Datanote: Philadelphia Fed Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: More evidence that China's PMI upturn is filtering into U.S. manufacturing.

13 Jan 2020 Expect Stabilisation, not Recovery, in China's Q4 GDP Data This Week (Publication Centre)

China's GDP report for the fourth quarter, due on Friday, is likely to show that economic growth has stabilised, on the surface.

U.S. Datanote: NAHB Homebuilder Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The clouds over housing are lifting.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Starts have further to rise, given the rebound in new home sales.

1 June 2017 Dovish EZ CPI Data Take the Sting out of Next Week's ECB Meeting (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance EZ CPI report bolstered the ECB doves' case for only marginal adjustments to the language on forward guidance at next week's meeting. Inflation in the euro area fell to 1.4% in May, from 1.9% in April, constrained by almost all the key components.

EZ Datanote: Consumer Sentiment, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Like watching paint dry.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surging employment index means payroll weakness likely will be temporary

U.S. Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: The rebound is consolidating; expected steady spring/summer sales.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but it won't last.

EZ Datanote: Sentix and Retail Sales, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: A further rebound in investor sentiment, and a robust Q1 for the EZ consumer.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, and the outlook for Q2 isn't great.

EZ Datanote: Final October Inflation Data and Trade Balance, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: The headline CPI has bottomed for the year.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Old news, but spectacular details all the same.

LatAm Datanote: BCCh Rate Decision, Chile (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rates on hold as the economy falters.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not much to cheer about; the trend is still falling.

US Datanote: New Home Sales, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but March and April, at least, will be grim.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit data, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Households' cash holdings rose at a healthy rate pre-virus.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money + Credit data, January, and BoE statement (Publication Centre)

In one line: MPC easing now likely, but expect a more timid response than from other central banks.

LatAm Datanote: Gross fixed investment, Mexico, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another ugly report, and Mexico's prospects have deteriorated significantly.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core inflation remains subdued, but it will rise soon.

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Dovish, but slight doubts now linger over the reaction function.

16 May 2019 The Industrial Sector is Bottoming April's IP Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

We are not worried about the reported drop in April manufacturing output, which probably will reverse in May.

10 April 2019 Headline Data will Hide the Extent of China's Q1 GDP Weakness (Publication Centre)

Official Chinese real GDP growth likely slipped to 6.3% year-over-year in Q1, the lowest on record, from 6.4% in Q4, which matched the trough in the Great Financial Crisis.

1 March 2019 Slightly Disappointing Brazil Q4 GDP Data Point to Greater Slack (Publication Centre)

Brazil's GDP growth slowed to just 0.1% quarter- on-quarter in Q4, from a downwardly-revised 0.5% in Q3.

10 August. 2016 Trade Data Show Depreciations Take Time to Boost Growth (Publication Centre)

June's trade figures yesterday highlighted that it takes more than just a few months for exchange rate depreciations to boost GDP growth. The trade-weighted sterling index dropped by 9% between November and June as the risk of Brexit loomed large and the prospect of imminent increases in interest rates receded.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Much stronger than the ISM, but the gap is not necessarily about to close.

10 November 2017 Data to Confirm Production Picked Up but Net Trade Hit Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

September's industrial production figures likely will not surprise markets today. We look for a 0.3% month-to-month rise in production, matching the consensus and the ONS assumption in the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: More evidence that the manufacturing downshift is stabilizing.

1 April 2019 Recent Retail Sales Data Make Little Sense, Noise is Swamping the Signal (Publication Centre)

The underlying U.S. consumer story, hidden behind a good deal of recent noise, is that the rate of growth of spending is reverting to the trend in place before last year's tax cuts temporarily boosted people's cashflow.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Employment, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Could have been worse; expect better ahead.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recent declines in y/y rates for core goods and services won't continue.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. International Trade, April & Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Little sign of the feared trade hit on Q2 GDP growth, so far.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Calendar quirks explain the drop in manufacturing output; expect a rebound in May.

06 May. 2015 Latest Data Enhances Divergent Activity Trends in LatAm (Publication Centre)

Mexican manufacturing sector kicked off the year on a soft note, due mainly to the sharp drop in oil prices, and the sharp weather-induced slowdown in the U.S. Mexico's northern neighbor is its largest trading partner, by far, accounting for about 85% of total exports last year and close to 80% of total non-oil exports.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by jump in imports.

07 May. 2015 How Far Will Yields Rise When the Activity Data Turn Higher? (Publication Centre)

Along with just about every other commentator and market participant, we have been wondering in recent months how longer Treasuries would react to the Fed starting to raise rates at the same time the ECB and BoJ are pumping new money into their economies via QE.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: The core capex picture is deteriorating.

16 April 2018 Chinese New Year Holiday Effects Spill over into the March Trade Data (Publication Centre)

The holiday effects are at it again. C hina's trade balance dropped to a deficit of $5.0B in March, from a surplus of $33.5B in February, confounding expectations for a surplus of $27.5B.

30 April 2019 Focus on Accelerating M1 Growth amid Still-Poor Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic numbers in the Eurozone were mixed, but we are inclined to see them through rose-tinted glasses.

30 April 2019 Q1 Data have Spooked Japanese Policymakers is it Temporary (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q1 is coming more sharply into focus.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: A big downside surprise.

3 May 2017 Fed on Hold Today After Mixed Data, but a June Hike Still Looks Likely (Publication Centre)

The Fed likely will do nothing today, both in terms of interest rates and substantive changes to the statement. We'd be very surprised to hear anything new on the Fed's plans for its balance sheet.

30 Aug 2019 More Cheery Data in France, but the German Numbers Look Grim (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic news in the French economy was solid.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't buy the extremely gloomy message.

4 October 2017 ADP to Show Slower Job Gains Last Month, but will Overstate BLS Data (Publication Centre)

Today brings the first glimpse of the post-hurricane employment picture, in the form of the September ADP report.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July and Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mixed messages warn against coming to strong conclusions.

4 Mar 2020 Brazil's Survey Data Point to a Steady Upturn, but it will Stutter Soon (Publication Centre)

The key story in Brazil this year remains one of gradual recovery, but downside risks have increased sharply, due mainly to challenging external conditions.

4 April 2019 Japan's Services Survey Data Overstate Q1 Strength (Publication Centre)

Japan's services PMI edged down to 52.0 in March, from 52.3 in February, taking the Q1 average to 52.0, minimally up from Q4's 51.9.

3 June 2019 Economic Data Still Don't Warrant the Gilt Market's Gloom (Publication Centre)

Gilts continued to rally last week, with 10-year yields dropping to their lowest since October 2016, and the gap between two-year and 10-year yields narrowing to the smallest margin since September 2008.

3 Jan 2020 More Soft EZ Manufacturing Data, but Markets Don't Care Anymore (Publication Centre)

The first economic report of 2020 confirmed the main story in the euro area last year; namely a recession in manufacturing.

27 November 2018 Do Q3's Healthy Sales Data Signal Further Strength in Mexico (Publication Centre)

Improving fundamentals have supported private spending in Mexico during the current cycle.

U.K. Datanote: Car Registrations, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: An inevitable pull-back after Q1's pick-up.

U.K. Datanote: BRC Retail Sales Monitor, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sub-par, once the Easter effect is excluded.

27 April 2018 Did the ECB Just Tell Markets to Look Extra-Closely at the Q2 Data? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting was comfortably uneventful for markets.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Households aren't fazed by the political crisis.

29 August 2018 Focus on Slowing Real M1, not the Upbeat Loan Data, in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In recent Monitors--see here and here--we have made a case for decent growth in the EZ's largest economies in the second half of the year, though we remain confident that full-year growth will be a good deal slower, about 2.0%, than the 2.5% in 2017.

3 April 2017 Expect Strength in Both the ISM and Construction Data Today (Publication Centre)

We'd be very surprised to see a material weakening in today's March ISM manufacturing survey. The regional reports released in recent weeks point to another reading in the high 50s, with a further advance from February's 57.7 a real possibility.

29 January 2019 Is it a Good Idea for Markets to Ignore Poor Macro Data in the EZ (Publication Centre)

In the last few weeks markets have been treated to the news that euro area industrial production crashed towards the end of Q4, warning that GDP growth failed to rebound at the end of 2018 from an already weak Q3.

LatAm Datanote: Bi-weekly CPI, Mexico, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation pressures are starting to ease.

4 October 2017 Survey Data Suggest Recoveries in Brazil and Mexico are on Track (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian economy has been recovering at a decent pace in recent months. The labor market is on the mend, with the unemploymen t rate falling rapidly to 12.5% in August from 14% at the end of Q1.

6 December 2017 ADP to Report Strong November Jobs, but will Overstate Official Data (Publication Centre)

The ADP measure of private employment hugely overstated the official measure of payrolls in September, in the wake of Hurricane Irma, but then slightly understated the October number.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Clearer signs of "stagflation".

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another robust report, undermining the case for a rate cut.

Asia Datanote: FX Reserves, China, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Just a valuations drag; net capital outflows up modestly

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Wage growth is too strong for the MPC to mull renewed stimulus.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: No longer insulated from Brexit uncertainties.

LatAm Datanote: CPI, Mexico, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bad-looking start to Q2, but the y/y rate was hurt by an unfavourable base effect.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Resilient wage growth bolsters the case for rate hikes.

LatAm Datanote: CPI, Mexico, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation pressures are finally easing, but the MXN--that is, President Trump's actions--is the key variable now for policymakers.

LatAm Datanote: Economic Activity Index, Brazil, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: The economy did very badly in Q1, and risks are still tilted to the downside.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Softening gradual enough for the MPC to keep its powder dry.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Halifax House Price Index, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still implausibly strong.

8 December 2017 Robust Jobs Data Will Emphasize the Labor Market's Tightness (Publication Centre)

We expect to see a 180K increase in November payrolls

8 April 2019 Recovering from the Shock of Japan's Wage Data... it's Not All Bad (Publication Centre)

Officially, Japanese wages have been falling year- over-year since January, marking a break from the gradual acceleration over the past 18 or so months.

7 March 2019 Monthly Data Shed Light on Korea's Strong Q4, but Q1 is Looking Poor (Publication Centre)

Korea's final GDP report for Q4 was little changed, in the end.

6 Sept 2019 Ugly Factory Orders Data to Kick off Q3 for German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand in German manufacturing slid at the start of Q3.

Asia Datanote: No Chinese trade data, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Either the distortions were too big or shutdowns disrupted the process.

8 July 2019 50 is Off the Table, Would Strong Sales and Inflation Data Kill the 25? (Publication Centre)

The June employment report pretty much killed the idea that the Fed will cut rates by 50bp on July 31.

9 Oct 2019 Car Output and Sales Data Point to Upside Risk to August's GDP (Publication Centre)

We look for August's GDP report, released on Thursday, to show that output held steady, following July's 0.3% month-to-month jump.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, March & Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Brexit preparations provide a temporary fillip to manufacturing.

8 November 2017 Mexico's Leading Indicators Remain Strong Despite Mixed Hard Data (Publication Centre)

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been mixed, distorted by temporary factors, including the effect of the natural disasters in late Q3. Private consumption has lost some momentum, hit by the lagged effect of high interest rates and inflation, as well as the earthquakes.

26 February 2019 Your Guide to the New HICP Inflation Data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

For a central bank already fighting for every decimal in its attempt to convince markets that underlying inflation is slowly edging higher, the recent shift in HICP methodology drives home an increasingly problematic issue.

3 Oct 2019 Regional Polling Data Point to a Tory Majority, But The Race Will Narrow (Publication Centre)

We continue to expect a general election to be held in December.

U.S. Datanote: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, September (p) (Publication Centre)

In one line: The trend is softening; blame the trade war.

20 March 2019 More Noise than Signal in the Monthly EZ Construction Data (Publication Centre)

Construction in the EZ stumbled at the start of the year.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boeing's woes and trade are hurting.

20 Jan. 2016 Wage Growth Will Push the "Data Driven" Governor to Hike this Year (Publication Centre)

Bank Governor Mark Carney reiterated in a speech yesterday that he wants to see sustained momentum in GDP growth, domestic cost pressures firm and core inflation rise further towards 2%, before raising interest rates. We doubt he will have long to wait on the last two points, given the tightness of the labour market.

U.S. Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disconnected from the rebound in China's surveys by the trade war.

21 December 2018 Consumption Will Firm in Mexico in Q4, Despite October's Poor Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's report on October private spending in Mexico was downbeat, suggesting that consumption started the fourth quarter on a weak footing.

22 November 2018 Next Year's Fiscal Stimulus Is Secure, Despite the Poorer Borrowing Data (Publication Centre)

October's surprise jump in public borrowing is not a material setback for the Chancellor, who will stick to his new Budget plans for modest fiscal stimulus next year.

22 June 2018 The MPC Glosses Over Weak Data, but Must Confront Reality in August (Publication Centre)

The MPC was more hawkish than we and most investors expected yesterday. The vote to keep Bank Rate at 0.50% was split 6-3, f ollowing Andy Haldane's decision to join the existing hawks, Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong enough to make the doves pause for thought.

2 Sept 2019 The August EZ CPI Data are a Gift to the ECB's Dovish Contingent (Publication Centre)

A few ECB governors has attempted to lean against dovish expectations in the past week.

2 Oct 2019 Hard Data Suggest the Recovery in Brazil and Chile is on Track (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial production rose 0.8% month- to-month in August, well above our call, and the consensus, for a trivial increase.

19 June 2017 Don't Rule Out a September Fed Hike, Watch the Labor Market Data (Publication Centre)

In the wake of last week's rate increase, the fed funds future puts the chance of another rise in September at just 16%. After hikes in December, March and June, we think the Fed is trying to tell us something about their intention to keep going; this is not 2015 or 2016, when the Fed happily accepted any excuse not to do what it had said it would do.

18 Feb 2020 December Data to Sustain Picture of Solid Job Gains But Slowing Wages (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market report looks set to be a mixed bag, with growth in employment remaining strong, but further signs that momentum in average weekly wages has faded.

19 February 2019 Expect to See a Further Softening in Asian Price Data this Friday (Publication Centre)

A slew of Asian price numbers are due this Friday, and they will all likely show that price gains softened further in January.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Germany, Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Domestic demand to the rescue, but inventories will be a drag in Q2.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: All was fine before the virus hit, though the election was not a game-changer for labour demand.

18 Dec 2019 Labour Market Data Remain Strong Enough to Keep Rate Cuts at Bay (Publication Centre)

The labour market remains healthy enough to persuade the MPC to keep its powder dry over the coming months.

U.S. Datanote: International Trade, March Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Trade deficit has stabilized, provided the China talks don't fall apart.

2 May 2019 Are Consensus-Beating Economic Data a Signal to Buy the Euro (Publication Centre)

In broad terms, the euro has followed the EZ economy in the past 12-to-18 months.

2 April 2019 The Easter Effect is Playing Tricks with Eurozone Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone stumbled at the end of Q3.

17 Jan 2020 EZ Car Sales Soared in Q4, but the Output Data Still Look Awful (Publication Centre)

A strong finish to the fourth quarter spared the EZ auto sector the embarrassment of posting an outright fall in domestic sales through 2019 as a whole.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not subdued enough for the MPC to ease.

PM Datanote: Trade Balance, France, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Q1 net trade hit confirmed; a rebound in Q2?

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: The import surge will unwind in Q2.

PM Datanote: Inflation, Chile, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation still little source of concern.

PM Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still dormant, despite the Brexit delay.

25 July 2019 Today's Array of Data Could Shift the Needle on Q2 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

The June durable goods, trade and inventory reports today, could make a material difference to forecasts for the first estimate of second quarter GDP growth, due tomorrow.

25 Nov 2019 The PMI Data Still Signal Weaker Growth ahead in the EZ (Publication Centre)

The PMIs in the Eurozone are still warning that the economy is in much worse shape than implied by remarkably stable GDP growth so far this year.

25 Mar 2020 The Covid Hit is Starting to Show in the Hard Data for Mexico and Brazil (Publication Centre)

LatAm governments and central banks have been busy implementing additional measures to contain the spread of the virus, and acting rapidly to ease the effect on the economy.

24 April 2018 Surveys are Stronger than Hard Data, but with no Common Cause (Publication Centre)

The levelling-off in the industrial surveys in recent months is reflected in the consumer sentiment numbers. Anything can happen in any given month, but we'd now be surprised to see sustained further gains in any of the regular monthly surveys.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recent slowdown in wage growth likely won't last.

16 Sept 2019 Textbook EZ Wage Data, but the Policy Response Won't Be (Publication Centre)

Last week's policy announcement by the ECB and Mr. Draghi's plea to EU politicians to deliver a fiscal boost, indicate that we're living in extraordinary economic times.

23 May 2018 Through the Looking Glass With Eurozone R&D Investment Data (Publication Centre)

The EZ national accounts were updated and rebased in 2015--from ESA 1995 to ESA 2010--in the name of timeliness and precision.

23 June 2017 Fed Officials Cite "Full Employment" but Worry About Recent CPI Data (Publication Centre)

A couple of Fed speakers this week have described the economy as being at "full employment". Looking at the headline unemployment rate, it's easy to see why they would reach that conclusion.

23 May 2019 Did the Main EZ Survey Data Take a Further Tumble in May (Publication Centre)

Today's EZ calendar is a busy one.

5 July 2018 EZ Services Activity is Solid, Despite Slowing a Bit in H1 2018 (Publication Centre)

Headline Eurozone PMI data have declined steadily since the beginning of the year, but the June numbers stopped the rot.

16 March 2017 Slowing Wage Gains Support the MPC's Loose Policy Stance (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's labour market data significantly bolster the consensus view on the MPC that interest rates do not need to rise this year to counter the imminent burst of inflation. Granted, the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in January--its lowest rate since August 1975--from 4.8% in December, defying the consensus forecast for no-change.

16 July 2018 Chinese Monetary Policy is Easing, but not for Shadow Banking (Publication Centre)

China's money and credit data released last Friday reaffirm our impression that the tightening has gone too far.

17 Jan 2020 December's Retail Sales Report Will Dampen Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)

The consensus forecast for a 0.6% month-to month rise in retail sales volumes in December--data released today--is far too timid.

5 Feb 2020 ADP Likely to Report Strong Job Growth in January (Publication Centre)

Our composite index of employment indicators, based on survey data and the official JOLTS report, looks ahead about three months.

5 February 2019 Spain's Economy is Still the Unsung Hero in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The majority of headlines from last week's advance Q4 GDP data in the Eurozone--see here--were negative.

18 July 2018 Peru's Economy Rebounded in the First Half Will the Strength Continue (Publication Centre)

Data released over the weekend confirm that the Peruvian economy enjoyed a strong second quarter. The economic activity index rose 6.4% year-over-year in May, well above market expectations, and up from 3.2% in Q1.

30 January 2019 Did the "Yellow Vests" Ruin French GDP Growth in Q4? (Publication Centre)

Today's barrage of data kicks off a couple of busy days in the Eurozone economic calendar.

30 January 2017 Real M1 Indicates a Solid Start to 2017, but What Happens Next? (Publication Centre)

The business cycle upturn in the Eurozone likely will remain resilient in the first half of 2017. Friday's money supply data showed that headline M3 growth increased to 5.0% in December, from 4.9% in November.

5 Dec 2019 Growth in EZ Services Activity is Slowing, but Not Crashing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data showed that the euro area PMIs were a bit stronger than initially estimated in November.

5 Apr. 2016 Is the Dip in the Dollar Already Lifting Demand for U.S. Exports? (Publication Centre)

The advance trade data for February make it very likely that today's full report will show the headline deficit rose by about $½B compared to March, thanks to rising net imports of both capital and consumer goods, which were only partly offset by improvements in the oil and auto accounts.

5 April 2019 German Manufacturers are Reliving the Horrors of 2008 (Publication Centre)

We have been telling an upbeat story about the EZ economy in recent Monitors, emphasizing solid services and consumers' spending data.

30 August 2017 ADP Looks set to Report Another Solid Gain in Payrolls (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a hefty increase in private payrolls in today's August ADP employment report. ADP's number is generated by a model which incorporates macroeconomic statistics and lagged official payroll data, as well as information collected from firms which use ADP's payroll processing services.

3 Sept. 2015 Trade Deficit Likely Dropped in July, but Q3 Picture Still Unclear (Publication Centre)

The July trade deficit likely fell significantly further than the consensus forecast for a dip to $42.2B from $43.8B in June, despite the sharp drop in the ISM manufacturing export orders index. Our optimism is not just wishful thinking on our p art; our forecast is based on the BEA's new advance trade report. These data passed unnoticed in the markets and the media. The July report, released August 28, wasn't even listed on Bloomberg's U.S. calendar, which does manage to find space for such useless indicators as the Challenger job cut survey and Kansas City Fed manufacturing index. Baffling.

30 April 2018 Q1 Slowdown Confirmed in the EZ, but Don't Push the Panic Button (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance GDP data provided the first solid evidence of a Q1 slowdown in the euro area economy.

16 November 2018 The EU's New Car Emissions Rules Cast a Long Shadow over the EZ (Publication Centre)

Economic data in the Eurozone auto sector remain under the influence of the aftershock from the EU's new emissions regulation--WLTP-- introduced in September.

30 August 2017 Argentina's Recovery is Gaining Traction but Inflation is Still a Risk (Publication Centre)

Recently data from Argentina continue to signal a firming cyclical recovery. According to INDEC's EMAE economic activity index, a monthly proxy for GDP, the economy grew 4.0% year-over-year in June, up from an already-solid 3.4% in May.

18 January 2018 Will the ECB's Real Reaction Function Please Stand Up? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone inflation data have been relatively calm in the past six months. The headline rate has been stable at about 1.5%, and the core rate has fluctuated closely around 1%.

5 January 2018 Don't Forget the Upbeat Story in Eurozone Services (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data added to the evidence that the EZ economy was firing on all cylinders at the end of last year. The composite PMI in the euro area rose to an 11-year high of 58.5 in December, from 57.5 in November, in line with the initial estimate.

16 June 2017 Chinese Growth to Slump Under the Burden of Deleveraging (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's money data confirmed that Chinese households have continued to borrow into Q2 but at a slower rate than in 2016. The slowdown will really set in during the second half, and into 2018. Households have done a sterling job of taking over the borrowing baton from corporates, but they can't do everything.

4 July 2017 Why Hasn't EZ Industrial Output Responded to the PMIs? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI data confirmed that the EZ manufacturing sector is in rude health. The manufacturing PMI in the euro area rose to a cyclical high of 57.4 in June, from 57.0 in May, slightly above the first estimate. New orders and output growth are robust, pushing work backlogs higher and helping to sustain employment growth.

31 January 2019 The French Economy Was More Resilient than Expected in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data dump in the EZ delivered something investors haven't seen for a while, namely, positive surprises.

31 October 2018 Eurozone GDP Growth hit a Speed Bump in the Third Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of economic data in the Eurozone offered a good snapshot of the grand narrative.

17 May 2018 Don't Give up on Higher Core Inflation in the Eurozone Just Yet (Publication Centre)

The final and detailed April CPI data confirmed that inflation pressures in the Eurozone eased last month. Headline inflation slipped to 1.2%, from 1.3% in March.

31 January 2017 Will the MPC Need to Raise Rates to Cool Consumer Credit Growth? (Publication Centre)

December's money data likely will bring further signs that the U.K. economy's growth spurt late last year was paid for with unsecured borrowing. Retail sales fell by 1.9% month-to-month in December, so we doubt that unsecured borrowing will match November's £1.7B increase, which was the biggest since March 2005.

31 August 2018 Did Eurozone Core Inflation Decline Slightly in August (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance CPI data in Germany suggest that inflation fell slightly in August.

31 Jan 2020 EZ Core Inflation is Set to Drop More than Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that German inflation roared higher at the start of the year, but the devil is in the detail.

17 Mar 2020 A Week on the Wild Side in EZ Equities, and It isn't Over Yet (Publication Centre)

The split between the reality reflected in the economic data and market pricing has never been wider in the euro area

31 July 2019 Low Inflation and Economy Under Strain will Force Banxico to Cut (Publication Centre)

We're maintaining our estimate of Mexico's Q2 GDP growth, due today, namely a 0.2% year- over-year contraction, in line with a recent array of extremely poor data.

17 July 2019 Colombia's Outlook is Improving Domestic Demand is Solid (Publication Centre)

May's activity data underline the gradual recovery in Colombia's economic growth, following signs of weakness at the start of the year.

4 Nov 2019 Brazil's Industrial Sector Improved in Q3, Colombia's Economy is Strong (Publication Centre)

Thursday and Friday were busy days for LatAm economy watchers. In Brazil, the data underscored our view that the economy is on the mend, but the recent upturn remains shaky, and external risks are still high.

31 May 2018 Eurozone Headline Inflation is About to Zoom Past 2% (Publication Centre)

Many investors probably glossed over yesterday's barrage of data in the Eurozone, for fear of being caught out by another swoon in Italian bond yields. Don't worry, we are here to help.

4 October 2017 Can EZ Investors Still Exploit Monetary Policy Divergence? (Publication Centre)

Global monetary policy divergence has returned with a vengeance. In the U.S., despite recent soft CPI data, a resolute Fed has prompted markets to reprice rates across the curve.

4 September 2017 Manufacturing Will Continue to Lift EZ GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone manufacturing boosted GDP growth in the first half of the year, and survey data suggest that momentum will be maintained in Q3.

17 January 2019 Chinese GDP Growth Likely Remained Weak in Q4 (Publication Centre)

China's GDP data--to be published on Monday-- are likely to report that growth slowed to 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, from 1.6% in Q3. A 1.4% increase would match the series low of Q1 2016.

31 August 2017 Inflation Pressures in the Eurozone are Responding to Robust Growth (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in the Eurozone probably firmed slightly in August. Data yesterday showed that inflation in Germany and Spain rose by 0.1 percentage points to 1.8% and 1.6% year-over-year respectively, and we are also pencilling-in an increase in French inflation today, ahead of the aggregate EZ report.

30 October 2018 Are Chinese Pro ts Normalising But the Headwinds Remain (Publication Centre)

Chinese headline industrial profits data show that growth slowed to just 4.1% year-over-year in September, from 9.2% in August.

17 Sept 2019 China Needs a Rate Cut and an Interim Deal it will Prioritise Rates (Publication Centre)

China's activity data yesterday made pretty uncomfortable reading for policymakers.

30 November. 2016 ADP Likely to Signal Decent Payroll Growth (Publication Centre)

The November ADP employment report today likely will show private payrolls rose by about 180K. We have no reason to think that the trend in payroll growth has changed much in recent months, though the official data do appear to be biased to the upside in the fourth quarter, probably as a result of seasonal adjustment problems triggered by the crash of 2008. We can't detect any clear seasonal fourth quarter bias in the ADP numbers.

18 April 2018 Patience is a Virtue in Eurozone Construction, the Trend is Decent (Publication Centre)

Today's economic data will add to the evidence that construction in the Eurozone slowed in the first quarter.

18 April 2019 The March Dip in the Core EZ CPI is Old News It will Jump in April (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ CPI data for March confirmed the message from the advance report that inflation pressures eased last month.

30 Sept 2019 Brazil's Labour Market Recovery Is Gathering Pace Q4 will Be Better (Publication Centre)

Economic data released last week underscored that Brazil's economic recovery is continuing; the effect of recent bold rate cuts and improving domestic fundamentals will further support the gradual recovery of the labour market.

31 October 2017 Consumption Set for a Sluggish Q4, Capex Will Take up the Slack (Publication Centre)

The September consumption data were a bit better than median expectations, with real spending rebounding by 0.6%, led by an 15.1% leap in the new vehicle component.

17 Oct 2019 September IP Hit by the GM Strike, but the Trend is Soft too (Publication Centre)

The GM strike will make itself felt in the September industrial production data, due today.

17 April 2018 The March Drop in Retail Sales will Overshadow Slowly Reviving Wages (Publication Centre)

This week's labour market, inflation and retail sales data--the last before the MPC meets on May 10--will have a major bearing on the Committee's decision.

17 August. 2016 Oil Sector Capex is Rebounding, and Will Add to Q3 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

The most important number released yesterday was hidden well behind the headline inflation, production and housing construction data. We have been waiting to see how quickly the upturn in the number of rigs in operation would translate into rising oil and gas well-drilling, and now we know: In July, well-drilling jumped by 4.7%

17 Dec 2019 Colombia Ends the Year Solidly, but Downside Risks for 2020 Emerge (Publication Centre)

Incoming activity data from Colombia over the past quarter have been surprisingly strong, despite many domestic and external threats.

16 October 2018 No Further Step Up in Wage Growth Likely in August (Publication Centre)

Consensus expectations for August's labour market data, released today, look well grounded.

30 May 2019 The German Labour Market Finally Realises that Growth has Slowed (Publication Centre)

Reporting on the German labour market has been like watching paint dry in this expansion, but yesterday's data were a stark exception to this rule.

26 October 2018 It Would Take a Lot to Turn the ECB Away from Ending QE in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The ECB kept its cool yesterday, at the headline level, amid crashing stock markets, volatile BTPs and souring economic data.

20 May 2019 What's to Blame for Stubbornly Low Core Inflation in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Friday's CPI data for April provided the final piece of evidence for the significant Easter distortions in this year's data.

25 May 2018 Germany Slowed in Q1, but what Happened to Private Demand? (Publication Centre)

The headline in yesterday's detailed Q1 German GDP data was old news, confirming that growth in the euro area's largest economy slowed at the start of the year.

25 Oct 2019 Capex is Falling, and a Huge Aircraft Inventory Overhang is Building (Publication Centre)

The gaps in the third quarter GDP data are still quite large, with no numbers yet for September international trade or the public sector, but we're now thinking that growth likely was less than 11⁄2%.

20 March 2019 The MPC Can't Ignore Rapidly- Rising Unit Wage Costs for Long (Publication Centre)

While financial markets remain obsessed with the Brexit saga, January's labour market data provided more evidence yesterday that the economy is coping well with the heightened uncertainty.

20 March 2017 Construction in the EZ is Doing Fine, Despite January Plunge (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone construction sector ground to a halt at the start of 2017. Data on Friday showed that output plunged 2.3% month-to-month in January, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -6.0%, from a revised +3.0% in December. The weakness was broad-based across the major economies, but it was concentrated in France and Spain where output fell by 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively.

25 Mar 2020 Surveys Confirm the Services Meltdown, Industry Better, for Now (Publication Centre)

The huge drop in the March Markit services PMI, reported yesterday, and the modest dip in the manufacturing index, are the first national business survey data to capture the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak.

21 Apr. Retail Sales Likely to Disappoint in March Due to Weak Easter Trading (Publication Centre)

Signs that Easter trading was unusually poor lead us to anticipate a downside surprise from today's retail sales data for March. The BRC's Retail Sales Monitor, which surveys companies that account for 60% of total retail sales, was remarkably weak in March.

25 Feb 2020 The Fed will Blink if Markets have Many More Days Like Yesterday (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's stock market bloodbath stands in contrast to the U.S. economic data, most of which so far show no impact from the Covid-19 outbreak.

21 February 2019 Will the Real Story in French Services Please Stand Up (Publication Centre)

Today's data dump will deliver the advance PMIs and the French INSEE business sentiment indices for February, all of which will be examined closely for signs of stabilisation in the wake of recent evidence that EZ growth is slowing quicker than markets and the ECB have been expecting.

25 July 2018 The PMIs are Probably Telling the True Story on the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first batch of Q3 survey data in the Eurozone suggest that economic growth eased further, albeit it slightly, at the start of the quarter.

25 June 2018 Imports Still Falling as the Hurricane Surge Continues to Unwind? (Publication Centre)

The latest data from container ports around the country are consistent with our view that imports are still correcting after the surge late last year, triggered by the hurricanes.

26 Feb 2020 Global Threats will Continue to Hurt the Mexican Economy this Year (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirmed that Mexico's economy ended Q4 poorly, confounding the most hawkish Banxico Board members.

26 Feb. 2015 GDP growth will pick up in the Eurozone this year (Publication Centre)

Hard economic data for the first quarter will appear over the next few weeks, but the EC sentiment survey later today gives a useful overview of how the euro area economy started the year.

26 March 2018 Favourable Inflation Outlook in Brazil and Mexico, but Politics is a Risk (Publication Centre)

In a week of important global events, local factors remained in the spotlight in Brazil, with a more benign data flow and the central bank statement reducing the likelihood of an imminent end to the easing cycle.

26 March 2019 A Few Bright Spots in the IFO, but Still an Overall Subdued Story (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO offered a rare upside surprise in the German survey data.

20 December 2016 The IFO Points to a Strong Finish for the German Economy to 2016 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey capped a fine Q4 for German business survey data. The headline business climate index climbed to a 34-month high of 111.0 in December, from 110.4 in November. An increase in the "current assessment" index was the main driver of the gain, while the expectations index rose only trivially.

20 Dec 2019 Retailers aren't Really Having a Nightmare Before Christmas (Publication Centre)

The run of weak retail sales figures continued yesterday, with the release of November's official data.

20 February 2019 Robust Labour Market Implies MPC Won't Dally After Brexit Risks Fade (Publication Centre)

Signs of a slowdown in the labour market data are conspicuously absent.

26 Mar 2020 The Terrible Extent of the Covid-19 Damage is Now Emerging (Publication Centre)

Analysing the EZ sentiment data at the moment is a bit like a surveyor being called out to assess the damage on a property after a flood.

26 January 2017 The IFO Points to Solid GDP Growth in Germany, Despite Dip (Publication Centre)

The trend of consensus-beating EZ economic data was brought to a halt yesterday. The IFO business climate index in Germany slipped to a five-month low of 109.8 in January, from 111.0 in December, mainly due to a fall in the expectations index. But we are not alarmed. The dip in the headline comes after a run of strong data, and the IFO remains consistent with GDP growth of about 1.6% year-over-year.

20 July 2017 Do we Need to be Afraid of Chinese Ghost Cities? (Publication Centre)

Stories of Chinese ghost cities are plentiful and alarming. The aggregate data present a startling picture. Between 2012 and 2015, China started around six billion square meters of residential floorspace but sold only around five billion.

26 June 2019 Services and Construction Will Lift French Capex in Q2, and in H2 (Publication Centre)

The INSEE's manufacturing sentiment data in France are slightly confusing at the moment.

20 Jan. 2016 EZ Inflation is Weak, but Dip in Services Inflation Won't Last (Publication Centre)

Final inflation data yesterday confirmed Eurozone inflation pressures are still low. Inflation rose to 0.2% year-over-year in December from 0.1% in November, lifted by easing deflation in energy prices. Base effects likely will lift energy price inflation in January and February, but the year-over-year rate will dip in Q2, if the oil price remains depressed. Food inflation fell in December due to a decline in unprocessed food prices, and we see further downside in Q1. Core inflation was unchanged, with the key surprise that services inflation fell to 1.1% from 1.2% in November. We think this dip will be temporary, however, and our first chart shows that risks to services inflation are tilted to the upside.

25 April 2019 Still Scope for Neutral Fiscal Policy in 2020, Despite March Hiccup (Publication Centre)

The run of better-than-expected public borrowing figures ended abruptly with the publication of March data yesterday.

22 February 2017 Easier lending standards to boost housing market? (Publication Centre)

Whatever today's report tells us about existing home sales in January, the underlying state of housing demand right now is unclear. The sales numbers lag mortgage applications by a few months, as our first chart shows, so they're usually the best place to start if you're pondering the near-term outlook for sales. But the applications data right now are suffering from two separate distortions, one pushing the numbers up and the other pushing them down. Both distortions should fade by the late spring, but in they meantime we'd hesitate to say we have a good idea what's really happening to demand.

23 January 2019 The MPC Won't Risk Letting the Labour Market Overheat (Publication Centre)

November's labour market data were the last before the MPC's February meeting, when it will conduct its annual assessment of the supply side of the economy.

23 July 2018 Inflation in Brazil Started Q3 Badly, but Temporary Shocks are Easing (Publication Centre)

Friday's inflation data in Brazil confirmed that the ripples from the truckers' strike in May were still being felt at the start of the third quarter.

24 July 2018 GDP Growth in Korea Likely Slipped in Q2, on Cooler Domestic Demand (Publication Centre)

GDP data for Q2 are due July 26; we expect the report to show a marginal dip in growth, to a seasonally adjusted 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, from 1.0% in Q1.

23 February 2018 Even Q4's Modest GDP Growth Relied on Unsustainable Supports (Publication Centre)

U.K. activity data have consistently surprised to the downside over the last month.

23 February 2017 Q4 GDP Flatters to Deceive, a Consumer-led Slowdown is Coming (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, the GDP data continue to suggest that the Brexit vote has had no adverse consequences for the economy. The official estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q4 was revised up yesterday to 0.7%, from 0.6%. The revision had been flagged earlier this month by stronger industrial production and construction output figures.

24 January 2017 Chainstore Sales Growth is Trending Upwards, but not for Long (Publication Centre)

Now that the holidays are just a distant memory, the distortions they cause in an array of economic data are fading. The problems are particularly acute in the weekly data­ -- mortgage applications, chainstore sales and jobless claims -- because Christmas Day falls on a different day of the week each year.

23 March 2017 Warm Weather Points to Upside Risk for February New Home Sales (Publication Centre)

New home sales are much more susceptible to weather effects -- in both directions -- than existing home sales. We have lifted our forecast for today's February numbers above the 575K pace implied by the mortgage applications data in recognition of the likely boost from the much warmer-than-usual temperatures.

23 Sept 2019 The Key Takeaways from Rapidly Falling PPI Inflation in Germany (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that German producer price inflation is now in free-fall.

24 April 2018 Japan's PMI Lends Strength to the Nascent Re ation Story (Publication Centre)

Japan's manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in April, from 53.1 in March. The index weakened earlier this year, but remained at levels unjustified by the hard data.

23 November 2018 Economic Growth in France Should Maintain Momentum in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data in France, tentatively suggest that business sentiment is stabilising following a string of declines since the start of the year.

23 May 2018 The Mexican Economy is Getting Better, Despite Rising Political Risks (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's March retail sales report for Mexico is in line with other recently released hard and survey data, painting an upbeat picture of the economy.

24 June 2019 Further Evidence of Stabilisation in EZ Growth from the PMIs (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance PMI data for the Eurozone added further evidence of stabilisation in the economy after the sharp slowdown in GDP growth since the beginning of last year.

23 April 2018 German Producer Price Inflation is Turning Up, Slowly (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data suggest that the downtrend in German PPI inflation is reversing.

22 Jan 2020 Resilient Labour Market will Make the Doves Pause for Thought (Publication Centre)

November's labour market report provided timely reassurance, after last week's downside data surprises, that the economy did not grind to a halt at the end of last year.

22 February 2019 This Month's PMI Headline: Weak Manufacturing, Strong Services (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's February PMI data sent a clear message to markets.

22 February 2019 The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Japan's Economy from Q4 to Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Japanese activity data were grim.

22 February 2017 Q4 GDP Likely to be Revised up, but Momentum won't Endure (Publication Centre)

We expect the official estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q4 to be revised up to 0.7% today, from last month's preliminary estimate of 0.6%. The consensus forecast is for no revision, so the data likely will boost interest rate expectations and sterling, if we're right.

22 July 2019 Still Ample Scope for Fiscal Stimulus, Despite Higher Borrowing in June (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the latest public finance data suggest that the economy has lost momentum.

22 June 2017 Asian Exports Remain Sturdy in Q2, but the Outlook is Cloudy (Publication Centre)

Korea's preliminary export numbers rebounded quite spectacularly in June, with growth at 24.4% year-on-year, compared with just 3.4% in May. This reading is important as it comes early in the monthly data cycle. Korea's position close to the beginning of the global supply chain, moreover, means its exports often lead shifts in global trade.

24 March 2017 Rapid Disinflation will Allow the BCB to Ease More Quickly (Publication Centre)

Brazil has made a convincing escape from high inflation in the past few months, laying the groundwork for a gradual economic recovery and faster cuts in interest rates. Mid-March CPI data, released this week, confirmed that inflation pressures eased substantially this month.

22 November 2017 Core Capital Goods Orders Rising Strongly, Further Gains Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Today brings a wave of data, some brought forward because of Thanksgiving. We are most interested in the durable goods orders report for October, which we expect will show the upward trend in core capital goods orders continues.

22 Nov 2019 Soft Manufacturing in France, but Robust Services and Construction (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data in France suggests that business sentiment in the industrial sector remained soft mid-way through Q4, but the numbers are more uncertain than usual this month.

22 May 2019 Not Out of the Woods, but Korea is Signalling a U-Turn in World Trade (Publication Centre)

The latest trade data from Korea underscore the unfortunate timing of the resumption of the U.S.-China tit-for-tat tariff war.

26 May 2017 Mexican Consumption Will Slow as Tighter Financial Conditions Bite (Publication Centre)

Consumers' spending in Mexico was relatively resilient at the end of Q1, but we think it will slow in the second quarter. Data released this week showed that retail sales rose a strong-looking 6.1% year-over-year in March, well above market expectations, and up from 3.6% in February.

20 August 2018 EZ Inflation has Peaked for the Year, but Core Rate to Rise Further (Publication Centre)

Friday's final EZ CPI data for July confirm the advance report.

29 October 2018 The Glass is Half-Full for French and German Households (Publication Centre)

Friday's consumer sentiment data in the two main Eurozone economies were mixed.

29 Oct 2019 China's Economy Still on the Rocks, A Bit More Easing is on its Way (Publication Centre)

Our analysis of the Q3 activity and GDP data in yesterday's Monitor strongly suggests that China's authorities will soon ready further stimulus.

19 Feb 2020 India's Slowdown is Over, GDP Growth Likely Rebounded in Q4 (Publication Centre)

India's industrial production data last week are the last set of key economic indicators for the fourth quarter, before next week's Q4 GDP report.

19 December 2017 New Home Sales and Construction Appear Set to Rocket Next Year (Publication Centre)

In the short-term, all the housing data are volatile. But you can be sure that if the recent pace of new home sales is sustained, housing construction will rise.

3 April 2017 Brazil's Labour Market is Still Poor, but Likely Will Stabilize Soon (Publication Centre)

Economic data released on Friday underscored our view that bolder rate cuts in Brazil are looming. The BCB's latest BCB's inflation report, released on Thursday, showed that policymakers now see conditions in place to increase the pace of easing "moderately" .

29 Nov 2019 EZ Leading Indicators are Still Mixed, We put our Faith in M1 (Publication Centre)

Leading economic indicators in the Eurozone continue to send contradictory signals. Most of the headline surveys indicate that a further slowdown, and perhaps even recession, are imminent, while the money supply data suggest that GDP growth is about to re-accelerate.

19 July 2018 China's Domestic Activity Likely Recovered in Q2 (Publication Centre)

China's official GDP data, published on Monday, showed year-over-year growth edging down to 6.7% in Q2, from 6.8% in Q1.

29 March 2019 German Core Inflation Slumped in March, but it will Rebound in April (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday revealed that headline inflation in Germany was unchanged in March at 1.5%, thanks mainly to higher energy inflation, which offset a dip in food inflation.

19 June 2019 Another One Bites the Dust Growth Cools Temporarily in Peru (Publication Centre)

Peru's April supply-side monthly GDP data confirm that the economic rebound lost momentum at the start of the second quarter.

19 June 2018 The Eurozone Construction Sector Started Q2 on the Front Foot (Publication Centre)

Today's construction data in the Eurozone will inject a dose of optimism amid the series of poor economic reports at the start of Q2.

29 Nov 2019 Banxico will Keep Cutting Rates, but Prudence will Prevail in the Near Term (Publication Centre)

Data released this week have confirmed that the Mexican economy is struggling and that the near-term outlook remains extremely challenging.

3 April 2017 Eurozone Consumers Likely had a Slow Start to 2017 (Publication Centre)

We fear that private spending in the EZ slowed in Q1, despite rocketing survey data. This fits our view that household consumption will slow in 2017 after sustained above-trend growth in the beginning of this business cycle.

3 April 2018 GDP Growth in the Eurozone is Slowing, but Not Collapsing (Publication Centre)

The economic data in the Eurozone were mixed while we were away.

3 Mar 2020 China's PMIs Mean Our GDP Downgrades are the Right Call (Publication Centre)

Last week we made a big call and further downgraded our China GDP forecasts for Q1; daily data and survey evidence suggested that our initial take, though grim, had not been grim enough.

3 May 2017 EZ Q1 GDP Growth Likely won't Live up to the Soaring Surveys (Publication Centre)

Survey data point to a very strong headline, 0.6%-to-0.7% quarter-on-quarter, in today's Q1 advance Eurozone GDP report. But the hard data have been less ebullient than the surveys. A GDP regression using retail sales, industrial production and construction points to a more modest 0.4% increase, implying a slowdown from the upwardly-revised 0.5% gain in Q4.

3 May 2018 A Sense of Relief, Despite the Q1 Slowdown in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance Q1 GDP data in the EZ confirmed that growth slowed at the start of the year.

3 May 2019 Inventories Could Spoil the Party for the EZ Economy in Q2 and Q3 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in the Eurozone are still suffering, but yesterday's final PMI data for April offered a few bright spots.

3 June 2019 Headline and Core Inflation in the Eurozone Fell Sharply in May (Publication Centre)

Last week's May CPI data in the major EZ economies all but confirmed the story for this week's advance estimate for the euro area as a whole.

3 July 2019 ADP Set for Clear Rebound, but it Likely will Understate Payrolls (Publication Centre)

Today brings an array of economic data, including the jobless claims report, brought forward because July 4 falls on Thursday.

18 October 2018 China's Monetary Transmission Mechanism Working...with Wrinkles (Publication Centre)

China's monetary and credit data--released yesterday, two days behind schedule--suggest that monetary conditions are loosening at the margin, while credit conditions have remained stable, but easier than in the first half.

3 April 2019 A Decent Industrial Report in Brazil, but the Rebound Remains Subpar (Publication Centre)

Brazil's February industrial production numbers, labour market data, and sentiment indicators are gradually providing clarity on the underlying pace of activity growth, pointing to some red flags.

3 Feb 2020 Improving Money and Credit Trends Point to Further MPC Inaction (Publication Centre)

December's money and credit data support the MPC's decision last week to hold back from providing the economy with more stimulus.

18 March 2019 Mexico's Manufacturing is Offsetting the Oil Drag, Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Hard data on Mexico's industrial sector for the last couple of months have highlighted major divergences across sectors.

19 Mar 2020 Japan Whacked by Supply Shock, Now for the Demand Damage (Publication Centre)

Japan's February trade data were a shocker, but not for the reasons we expected, given the signal from the Chinese numbers.

29 January 2019 Industrial Profits in China Remain Terrible, Underneath the Surface (Publication Centre)

China's industrial profits data for December showed continued weakness in the sector, with no clear signs that a turnaround is in the offing.

27 Nov 2019 The GM Strike Likely Depressed October Orders, Core Soft too? (Publication Centre)

Today's wave of data will bring new information on the industrial sector, consumers, the labor market, and housing, as well as revisions to the third quarter GDP numbers.

2 Mar 2020 ECB easing is on the way, the only question is how much (Publication Centre)

We'll cover Friday's barrage of EZ economic data later in this Monitor, but first things first. We regret to inform readers that the ECB is behind the curve. Last week, Ms. Lagarde downplayed the idea that the central bank will respond to the shock from the Covid-19 outbreak.

27 Sept 2019 Are the Balance of Risks Shifting for the Better in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Money supply data are sending an increasingly contrarian, and bullish, signal for the euro area economy.

2 July 2019 More Misery in EZ Manufacturing, but M1 Looks Solid Enough (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in the Eurozone were soft.

2 July 2018 Construction Activity is Accelerating, it's not Just Hurricane Repairs (Publication Centre)

Perhaps the single strongest U.S. economic data series in recent months has been construction spending, which has risen by more than 1%, month-to-month, in four of the past five months.

27 March 2019 All Set for a Rebound in German Consumption Growth in H1 (Publication Centre)

German retail and consumer sentiment data for March have been mixed this week, but broadly support our call that growth in consumption should pick up soon.

27 June 2019 Are Rising Jobless Claims a Drag on German Consumer Sentiment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer sentiment data provided further evidence of a strengthening French economy, amid signs of cracks in the otherwise solid German economy.

26 October 2018 Inventories and Consumption Drove up Q3 Growth Q4 will be Slower (Publication Centre)

We have tweaked our third quarter GDP forecast in the wake of the September advance international trade and inventory data; we now expect today's first estimate to show that the economy expanded at a 4.0% annualized rate.

16 January 2019 China's Tax Cuts will Help, but the Recovery will Remain Illusive (Publication Centre)

The Chinese authorities have been out in force in the last few days, aiming to reassure markets and the populace that they are ready and able to support the economy, after abysmal trade data on Monday.

26 September 2016 PMIs Point to Slower EZ GDP Growth, but Details are Confusing (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMI data in the Eurozone added to the evidence that GDP growth is slowing, after a cyclical peak last year. The composite PMI in the euro area slipped to a 21-month low of 52.6 in September, from 52.9 in August.

2 May 2018 Have Markets Priced in Today's Poor Q1 GDP Report in the EZ? (Publication Centre)

We previewed today's advance EZ Q1 GDP number in our Monitor on April 30--see here--and the data since have not changed our outlook.

28 August 2018 Germany's Economy is Resilient in the Face of External Risks (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed GDP data in Germany confirm that the euro area's largest economy performed strongly in the second quarter.

28 February 2018 Eurozone Inflation Fell in February, but the Core Rate Likely Rose (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance CPI data in Germany and Spain suggest that inflation in the Eurozone as a whole dipped slightly in February.

19 September 2018 Brazil's Economy is Muddling Through, but the Election is a Risk (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economy surprised to the upside in early Q3, despite downbeat data released in recent days.

29 Aug 2019 How About Slightly Stronger EZ GDP Growth in Q3 and Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's money supply data in the Eurozone were solid across the board.

29 Jan. 2016 EZ Core Inflation is Rising, but Weak Oil Prices are Still a Wildcard (Publication Centre)

German data yesterday indicate that inflation pressures have, so far, been resilient in the face of the recent collapse in oil prices. Inflation rose to 0.5% year-over-year in January from 0.3% in December, partly due to base effects pushing up the year-over-year rate in energy prices, but core inflation rose too. The detailed state data indicate that almost all key components of the core index contributed positively, lead by leisure and recreation and healthcare.

29 January 2018 The Investor's Guide to the Business Cycle in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Money supply data in the EZ continue to suggest that headline GDP growth will slow soon.

28 November 2018 The Fed is Nearer Neutral, but That's not News Where is Neutral (Publication Centre)

Today brings a ton of data, as well as an appearance by Fed Chair Powell at the Economic Club of New York, in which we assume he will address the current state of the economy and the Fed's approach to policy.

28 Nov 2019 The Case for Larger PBoC Cuts Grows as Chinese Profits Tank (Publication Centre)

China's abysmal industrial profits data for October underscore why the chances of less- timid monetary easing are rising rapidly.

28 February 2019 A Dovish Money Supply Report Ahead of the March ECB Meeting (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's January EZ money supply data offered support for investors betting on a further dovish shift by the ECB at next month's meeting.

28 January 2019 Has the Link Between Labour Costs and Inflation Broken? (Publication Centre)

At first glance, the U.K. consumer price data show a perplexing absence of domestically generated inflation.

2 February 2018 Caixin PMI will Fall in February, Though Activity will Strengthen (Publication Centre)

Holiday effects are tedious and you are going to hear us talking about them until the March data come through.

28 May 2019 Raising the Alarm on German Private Investment in Q2 and Q3 (Publication Centre)

We covered the detailed German Q1 GDP report in Friday's Monitor--see here--but the investment data could do with closer inspection. The headline numbers looked great.

18 July 2019 Construction in the EZ Slowed in Q2, Denting GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data provided further evidence that GDP growth in the EZ economy slowed in Q2.

15 Nov 2019 Chinese Growth Momentum Under Attack from all Angles (Publication Centre)

China's main activity data for October disappointed across the board, strengthening our conviction that the PBoC probably isn't quite done with easing this year.

9 August 2017 Productivity Growth Might be Turning up, Labor Costs Subdued (Publication Centre)

We are a bit more optimistic than the consensus on the question of second quarter productivity growth, but the data are so unreliable and erratic that the difference between our 1.2% forecast and the 0.7% consensus estimate doesn't mean much.

14 June 2017 Fact-checking the ECB on Low Wages and Employment in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Today's employment report in the euro area should extend the run of positive labour market data. We think employment rose 1.4% year-over-year in Q1, accelerating marginally from a 1.2% increase in Q4.

1 November 2018 A EZ Inflation Report Straight From the ECB's Hymn Sheet (Publication Centre)

The ECB will be satisfied, and a bit relieved, with yesterday's economic data in the Eurozone.

1 Nov 2019 Where's the Fire, The EZ Economy is Weak, but also Stabilising (Publication Centre)

The more headline hard data we see in the Eurozone, the more we are getting the impression that 2019 is the year of stabilisation, rather than a precursor to recession.

1 May 2018 Is the EZ Economy Slowing Faster Than Markets Expect? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's money supply data in the Eurozone were alarmingly poor.

13 Dec 2019 Did a Strong Thanksgiving Weekend Lift November Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

Today's November retail sales numbers are something of a wild card, given the absence of reliable indicators of the strength of sales over the Thanksgiving weekend, and the difficulty of seasonally adjusting the data for a holiday which falls on a different date this year.

10 April 2018 Q1 was a write-off for the German economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's trade data added to the evidence that momentum in the German economy slowed sharply at the start of the year.

9 January 2018 Small Business Owners are Happy, so Why are Capex Plans Soft? (Publication Centre)

We already know that the month-to-month movements in the key labor market components of the December NFIB small business survey were mixed; the data were released last week, ahead the official employment report, as usual.

10 Dec 2019 Well-behaved Inflation in Mexico and Colombia, A Relief for Policymakers (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation and activity data in Mexico were dovish.

9 Dec 2019 Germany's Economy is Still Either in, or Very Close to, Recession (Publication Centre)

The hard data in Germany took a turn for the worse at the start of Q4. The outlook for consumers' spending was dented by the October plunge in retail sales--see here-- and on Friday, the misery spilled over into manufacturing.

10 Dec 2019 Net Exports in Germany Were Off to a Flying Start in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The early Q4 hard data in Germany recovered a bit of ground yesterday.

8 Oct 2019 No Need for Households' Saving Rate to Rise Further (Publication Centre)

National accounts data released last week rewrote the recent history of households' saving.

8 June 2018 Did German Manufacturers Take a Long Break in Q1 and Q2? (Publication Centre)

New orders data increasingly suggest that German manufacturers all but shut their production lines at the start of the year.

8 December 2017 Investment is Now the Key Driver of GDP Growth. Will it Continue? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed Q3 GDP data in the Eurozone confirmed that the economy has gone from strength to strength this year.

1 July. 2015 Upside Risk for ADP and ISM Manufacturing - Both of Little Value (Publication Centre)

We will have a much better idea of the pace of domestic demand growth after today's wave of economic data, though the report which will likely generate the most attention in the markets--ADP employment--tells us nothing of value. The headline employment number in the report is generated by a regression which is heavily influenced by the previous month's official data.

1 July 2019 The June Jump in the EZ C ore CPI Won't Shift the Dovish ECB (Publication Centre)

Friday's inflation data in the Eurozone were a mixed bag.

11 Oct 2019 Q3 GDP Set to Grow at Double the Rate Anticipated by the MPC (Publication Centre)

The latest GDP data continue to show that the economy is holding up well, despite the Brexit saga.

7 September 2017 Japanese Regular Wages Breaking out of a 20-year Stagnation? (Publication Centre)

Japanese labour cash earnings data threw analysts another curveball in July, falling 0.3% year-over-year. At the same time, June earnings are now said to have risen by 0.4%, compared with a fall of 0.4% in the initial print.

8 January 2018 Brazil's Industrial Sector and Foreign Trade to Remain Resilient in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a relatively resilient Brazilian economy in the last few months, despite intensified political risk, and hard data are beginning to confirm this story.

1 March 2019 Did Core Inflation in the Eurozone Fall Slightly in February (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance CPI data for the major EZ economies suggest that today's report for the euro area as a whole will undershoot the consensus slightly.

14 Nov 2019 Japan's PPI Underscores More Muted Impact of Tax Hike on Prices (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI data yesterday confirmed that October was a turning point for prices--due to the consumption tax hike--despite the surprising stability of CPI inflation in Tokyo for the same month.

14 Oct 2019 Resilient Consumption in Brazil, Manufacturing in Mexico Slowing (Publication Centre)

Hard data for Brazil and Mexico, released last week, support the case for further interest rate cuts.

8 July. 2016 German Economy Likely Stalled in Q2, but Don't Forget the Q1 Surge (Publication Centre)

German GDP growth jumped in the first quarter, but monthly economic data suggest the economy all but stalled in Q2. Yesterday's industrial production data are a case in point. Output slid 1.3% month-tomonth in May, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -0.4% from a revised 0.8% gain in April. Adding insult to injury, the month-to-month number for April was revised down by 0.3 percentage points

8 July 2019 Slump in German Manufacturing isn't Over Yet...Far From It (Publication Centre)

The German manufacturing data remain terrible. Friday's factory orders report showed that new orders plunged 2.2% month-to-month in May, convincingly cancelling out the 1.1% cumulative increase in March and April.

9 July 2018 Evidence is Mounting that German Manufacturing did Well in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data in Germany added to the manufacturing optimism following the sharp rise in new orders--see here--reported earlier in the week.

9 July 2019 The German Economy Hit a Brick Wall in the Second Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's headline economic data in Germany were decent enough. Industrial output edged higher by 0.3% month-to-month in May, lifted primarily by rising production of capital and consumer goods.

13 Jan 2020 Your Monthly Reminder that the French Economy is Doing Fine (Publication Centre)

The French manufacturing data delivered another upside surprise last week, following the solid numbers in Germany; see here. French industrial production rose slightly in November, by 0.3% month-to-month, extending the gains from an upwardly-revised 0.5% rise in October.

13 March 2018 Taking the Pulse on EZ Investment Can the Upturn be Sustained? (Publication Centre)

Last week's detailed GDP data in the Eurozone confirmed that the economy is benefiting from an investment cycle for the first time since before the financial crisis.

11 Dec 2019 The PBoC Could Cut Rates Again this Year, Easing so far is Insufficient (Publication Centre)

China's November money and credit data were a little less grim, with only M2 growth slipping, due to unfavourable base effects.

11 Dec 2019 Mexico's Leading Indicators Still Signal Tough Near-term Prospects (Publication Centre)

Recent activity data in Mexico have been soft and leading indicators still point to challenging near-term prospects, due mainly to relatively high domestic political risk, stifling interest rates and difficult external conditions.

13 November 2017 Chinese Producer Price Increases Are Finally Slowing (Publication Centre)

Overall, the Chinese October data paint a picture of continued weakness in trade, with PPI inflation still high but the rate of increase finally slowing.

11 Nov 2019 German Net Exports fell in Q3, but less than in Q2, No recession then (Publication Centre)

Friday's data force us to walk back our recession call for Germany. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose in September, to €19.2B from €18.7B in August, lifted by a 1.5% month-to-month jump in exports, and the previous months' numbers were revised up significantly.

13 March 2017 A Slowdown in the U.K. Will Dent the German Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Germany's external surplus remained resilient at the start of the year. Data on Friday showed that the seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose marginally to €18.5B in January, from a revised €18.3B in December.

13 Jan. 2016 Sterling Has Not Priced-in Brexit Risks Yet, Despite Recent Plunge (Publication Centre)

Claims abound that sterling's sharp depreciation since the start of the year--to its lowest level against the dollar since May 2010--partly reflects the growing risk that the U.K. will vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum. We see little evidence to support this assertion. Sterling's decline to date can be explained by the weakness of the economic data, meaning that scope remains for Brexit fears to push the currency even lower this year.

13 January 2017 The Eurozone Economy Remains Oblivious to Political Risks (Publication Centre)

The euro area economy continues to defy rising political uncertainty. Data yesterday showed that industrial production, ex-construction, in the Eurozone jumped 1.5% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 3.2% from a revised 0.8% in October. Output rose in all the major economies, but the headline was flattered by a 16.3% month-to-month leap in Ireland. This was due to a production jump in Ireland's "modern sector" which includes the country's large multinational technology sector.

11 October. 2016 Conditions Are Set for the BCB to Start Easing Next Week (Publication Centre)

The latest CPI data in Brazil confirm that inflationary pressures eased considerably last month. Inflation fell to 8.5% year-over-year in September, from 9.0% in August, as a result of both lower market- set and regulated inflation.

11 November. 2016 French Industrial Output Weak in Q3, Likely Better in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's French industrial production data were worse than we expected. Output slipped 1.1% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -1.1% from a revised +0.4% in August. Mean-reversion was a big driver of the poor headline, given the upwardly-revised 2.4% jump in August.

12 April 2017 Don't Worry About the Weakness in C&I Lending, it will Rebound (Publication Centre)

Friday's weekly report on the assets and liabilities of U.S. commercial banks will complete the picture or March and, hence, the first quarter. It won't be pretty. With most of the March data already released, a month-to-month decline in lending to commercial and industrial companies of about 0.7% is a done deal. That would be the biggest drop since May 2010, and it would complete a 1% annualized fall for the first quarter, the worst performance since Q3 2010. The year-over-year rate of growth slowed to just 5.0% in Q1, from 8.0% in the fourth quarter and 10.3% in the first quarter of last year.

10 Sept 2019 China's Trade Story Looks Better, but is Still Weak, in Real Terms (Publication Centre)

China's August foreign trade data were nasty, on the face of it, with exports falling 1.0% year-over- year, after the 3.3% increase in July.

13 Feb 2020 Japan's M2 Still Points to a Growth Slowdown, Regardless of the Virus (Publication Centre)

Japan's money and credit data have shown signs of life in recent months, but that's all set to change quickly, due to the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.

9 May 2019 A Solid Q1 in the Bag for Germany Now a Q2 Correction Looms (Publication Centre)

Industrial production data in Germany continued to defy the signal of doom and gloom from leading indicators.

14 February 2018 Look for a Disappointing Q4 German GDP Report Today (Publication Centre)

Today's Eurozone data will provide further details on what happened in Q4. Advance data suggest that industrial production rose a modest 0.1% month- to-month, lifting the year-over-year rate to 4.3% in December, from 3.9% in November.

10 Feb 2020 The Noose Tightens on Eurozone Optimists, Will the ECB Cut Rates? (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data in the core EZ economies, for December, were startlingly poor. In Germany, industrial production plunged by 3.5% month-to-month, comfortably reversing the revised 1.2% rise in November.

10 February 2017 Dip in German Exports Won't Ruin the Rebound in Q4 as a Whole (Publication Centre)

German exporters stumbled at the end of last year. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus in Germany dipped to €18.4B in December, from €21.8B in November, hit by a 3.3% month-to-month plunge in exports. Imports were flat on the month. The fall in exports looks dramatic, but it followed a 3.9% jump in the previous month, and nominal exports were up 2.5% over Q4 as a whole. Advance GDP data next week likely will show that net trade lifted quarter-on-quarter growth by 0.2 percentage points, partly reversing the 0.3pp drag in Q3. Real imports were held back by a jump in the import price deflator, due to rebounding oil prices.

13 September 2017 The French Labour Market is on the Up. Will Reforms Follow? (Publication Centre)

In theory, the headline labour market data in France should be a source of comfort and support for the new government.

10 May 2019 Underlying Core Inflation is Stable, Despite the Weak Q1 Core PCE (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, our forecast of higher core inflation by the end of this year is seriously challenged by the recent data.

12 April 2018 A Much-Needed Reality Check on the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Today's industrial production data in the Eurozone will extend the run of soft headlines at the start of the year.

10 June 2019 Industrial Production in the EZ will Slow Significantly in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Friday's data provided the first bit of evidence that manufacturing in the Eurozone is headed for a slowdown in Q2, partly reversing the strength in Q1.

9 October 2018 German Manufacturing Slowed Sharply in Q3, Denting Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production data in Germany were better than we feared. Output slipped 0.3% month-to-month in August, depressing the year- over-rate to -0.4% from 1.6% in July, a minor fall given evidence of a big hit from weakness in the auto sector ahead of the EU emissions tests.

15 August 2018 China's Authorities have Enough to Worry About...Tariff hit yet to Come (Publication Centre)

Our view on the trade data last week was that U.S. tariff hikes have caused minimal damage, so far. China's tariff increases on imports to date have resulted in stockpiling, with little evidence in the CPI of any inflationary pressure.

1 April 2019 More Evidence Emerging of a Q1 Rebound in Consumers' Spending (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data added to the evidence of a Q1 rebound in EZ consumption growth.

6 March 2019 The EZ PMIs Showed Further Signs of Resilience in February (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data for February confirmed the story from the advance reports.

15 August 2018 Soft July Headline Retail Sales Numbers will Hide a Solid Core (Publication Centre)

The first wave of domestic third quarter data crashes ashore this morning.

6 June 2017 The Spanish Economy is Punching Above its Weight. Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final May PMI data in the Eurozone confirmed the strength of the cyclical upturn. The composite PMI was unchanged at 56.8, in line with the initial estimate.

6 May 2019 Core CPI Inflation is Headed for 1.2-to-1.3% at the End of the Year (Publication Centre)

Friday's CPI data in the euro area confirmed our expectation that inflation jumped last month.

6 April 2017 Firms in the EZ are Investing Again, but What About Wages? (Publication Centre)

Readers have asked us about the availability of flow-of-funds data in the Eurozone similar to the detailed U.S. reports. The ECB's sector accounts come close and cover a lot of ground, but are also released with a lag. We can't cover all sectors in one Monitor, but the investment data for non-financial firms, excluding construction, suggest that investment growth slowed last year.

12 February 2019 GDP Likely Will Still Rise Marginally in Q1, Despite December's Dip (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the latest GDP data look awful. December's 0.4% month-to-month fall in GDP closed a poor Q4, in which quar ter-on-quarter growth slowed to 0.2%, from 0.6% in Q3.

12 October 2017 China's Real GDP Growth Should Continue to Trend Down in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Next week is a big one for China. The five yearly Party Congress opens on Wednesday, and on Thursday, the monthly raft of activity data is published, along with Q3 GDP.

6 Apr 2020 The Eurozone PMIs are Breaking Records, and Not for the Better (Publication Centre)

Friday's final PMI data for March were even more terrifying than the advance numbers. The composite index in the euro area collapsed to 29.7, from 51.6 in February, lower than the consensus 31.4. A downward revision was coming.

6 June 2017 Andes Economies to Recover in H2, Thanks to Loose Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

Recent data have confirmed that growth in the Andean economies--Colombia, Chile and Peru--faced downward pressure in Q1, but some leading indicators and recent hard data suggest that we should expect better news ahead.

6 December 2018 The PMIs are No Fun EZ Growth is Slowing, and Italy is in Recession (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data in the euro area for November broadly confirmed the initial estimates.

6 Feb 2020 Suddenly, the Composite PMI in the EZ Rose Slightly in January (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data in the Eurozone were better than we expected.

12 November 2018 Further Downgrades to 2018 EZ GDP Growth are on their Way (Publication Centre)

The economic data were mixed while we were away. The final PMI data showed that the composite PMI in the euro area fell to 53.1 in October, from 54.1 in September, somewhat better than the initial estimate, 52.7.

6 February 2018 Argentina Ended 2017 Strongly but Challenges are Mounting (Publication Centre)

Argentina's economy was improving late last year, albeit slowing at the margin, according to the latest published indicators. GDP data confirmed that the revival continued during most of Q4, with the economy growing 0.4% month-to-month in November.

6 February 2019 Will the Eurozone Consumer Step up to the Plate in 2019 (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, the retail sales data in the euro area suggest that consumers' spending hit a brick wall at the end of 2018.

6 January 2017 Brazil's Industrial Recovery is Underway, but it is Painfully Slow (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Brazilian industrial production data continue to tell a story of a slow business cycle upturn. Output rose 0.2% month-to-month in November, after a downwardly revised 1.2% plunge in October. The year-over-year rate, though, jumped to -1.1%, from -7.3% in October. The underlying trend is now on the mend, following weakness in Q3 and early Q4. Output rose in November three of the four major categories and in 13 of the 24 sectors.

23 September. 2016 How to Read the Split FOMC's Confusing Thought Processes (Publication Centre)

Over the past few days we have written about the difference between the Fed's tactics--signalling rate hikes and then choosing not to act in the face of weaker data--and its strategy, which is to normalize rates in the expectation that inflation will head to 2% in the medium-term.

15 November 2017 Full-Year GDP Growth in the EZ Will be Close to 2.5% in 2017 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second batch of Q3 GDP data in the euro area provided further evidence of a strong and stable cyclical upturn in the economy.

6 July. 2016 The EZ Economy is at the Mercy of Rising Political Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data point to a sea of calm in the Eurozone economy. The composite PMI was unchanged at 53.1 in June, a slight upward revision from the initial estimate, 52.8. The index suggests real GDP growth was stable at 1.5%-to-1.6% year-overyear in Q2, though the quarter-on-quarter rate likely slowed markedly, following the jump in Q1.

6 February 2017 EZ Households are in Good Shape, But Spending Will Slow in 2017 (Publication Centre)

Consumers' spending in the euro area weakened at the end of Q4, but we think households will continue to boost GDP growth in the first quarter. Data on Friday showed that retail sales fell 0.3% month-to-month in December, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.1%, from a revised 2.8% in November.

12 May 2017 Falling Inflation in Brazil Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead (Publication Centre)

Brazil's April CPI data this week showed that inflation pressures remain weak, supporting the BCB's focus on the downside risks to economic activity. Wednesday's report revealed that the benchmark IPCA inflation index rose 0.1% unadjusted month-to-month in April, marginally below market expectations.

7 June 2017 Sentiment Indicators Signal Better Times for the Mexican Economy (Publication Centre)

Mexico's survey data have improved significantly over the last few months, reaching levels last since before Donald Trump won the U.S. election in November. This suggest that the economy is in much better shape than feared earlier this year. Consumer confidence, for instance, has continued its recovery.

7 July 2017 Andean Economies Improving as First-Half Shocks Fade (Publication Centre)

The Imacec data released on Wednesday provided further evidence that the Chilean economy grew at a decent pace in the second quarter, following a very sluggish first quarter.

5 Mar 2020 How far Will EZ Services Fall, and Will it Cause a Recession (Publication Centre)

It will take a while for the economic data in the euro area fully to reflect the Covid-19 shock, but the incoming numbers paint an increasingly clear picture of an improving economy going into the outbreak.

7 Oct 2019 The Noose Tightens on the EZ, but a Recession is Still Unlikely (Publication Centre)

Data while we were away have intensified fears that the global, and by extension EZ, economy is slipping into recession.

5 May 2017 Brazil's Industrial Output Dropped in March, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's Brazilian industrial production data were worse than we expected but the details were less alarming than the headline. Output slipped 1.8% month-to-month in March, the biggest fall since August 2015, setting a low starting point for Q2.

5 March 2018 Consumers' Spending in Germany Probably will Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data in Germany suggest that households had a slow start to the year.

12 March 2019 We Need to Talk a Bit about Revisions to German Construction (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production numbers in Germany were similar to Friday's confusing new orders data.

16 Jan 2020 Early Evidence Points to a further Dip in EZ GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Judging by the solid advance data in the major economies, yesterday's EZ industrial production report should have hit desks with a bang, but it was a whimper in the end.

7 February 2017 Disinflation in Colombia Continues, but Momentum is Easing, for now (Publication Centre)

January CPI data in Colombia, released on Saturday, confirmed that inflation pressures eased last month, but the details weren't as good as the headline. Inflation fell to 5.5% year-over-year, from 5.8% in December, as a result of falling food inflation-- helped mainly by a favourable base effect--and lower clothing prices.

06 Jan. 2016 The Services PMI isn't the Final Word on the Economy's Health (Publication Centre)

Unanticipated movements in the Markit/CIPS services PMI often provoke big market reactions, despite its shortcomings as an indicator of the pace of growth. We suspect December's PMI, released today, could surprise to the downside, reversing most of its rise in November to 55.9 from 54.9 in October. Regardless, we place more weight on the official data, which is more comprehensive and shows clearly the recovery is slowing.

06 Jan. 2016 ADP Likely to Report Slower December Job Gains - Ignore it (Publication Centre)

None of today's four monthly economic reports will tell us much new about the outlook, and one of them--ADP employment--will tell us more about the past, but that won't stop markets obsessing over it. We have set out the problems with the ADP number in numerous previous Monitors, but, briefly, the key point is that it is generated from regression models which are heavily influenced by the previous month's official payroll numbers and other lagging data like industrial production, personal incomes, retail and trade sales, and even GDP growth. It is not based solely on the employment data taken from companies which use ADP for payroll processing, and it tends to lag the official numbers.

04 Mar. 2016 Solid Services Activity Continues to Limit the Slide in the PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final February PMI data were slightly stronger than expected, due to upbeat services data. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell to 53.0, a bit above the initial 52.7 estimate, from 53.6 in January. The PMI likely will dip slightly in Q1 on average, compared to Q4, but it continues to indicate stable GDP growth of about 0.3%-to-0.4% quarter-on-quarter.

5 Sept 2019 Don't Write off the EZ Consumer in Q3, Even if Retail Sales Falter (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that EZ consumers' spending was off to a bad start in the third quarter.

5 October 2017 Consumers' Spending in the Eurozone Slowed in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone will rekindle the debate on hard versus soft data. The final composite PMI rose to 56.7 in September, from 55.7 in August, in line with the first estimate.

6 September. 2016 Payrolls Will Revive, but not Immediately, Ignore "So" AHE (Publication Centre)

Over the past six months, payroll growth has averaged exactly 150K. Over the previous six months, the average increase was 230K. And in the six months to August 2015--a fairer comparison, because the fourth quarter numbers enjoy very favorable seasonals, flattering the data--payroll growth averaged 197K.

EZ Datanote: Inflation, France & Saxony Germany, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Early EZ inflation data for December coming in hot.

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Trade and ZEW - Eurozone and Germany (Publication Centre)

In one line: Old news in the CPI data, weak trade, and a horrible ZEW.

US Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Data from another world.

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Construction, and Car Registrations - EZ (Publication Centre)

In one line: More poor Q2 data; EZ core inflation rebounds, but it is not going anywhere fast.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ancient news, but these data are key to watch in the next few months.

US Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, March (preliminary) (Publication Centre)

In one line: The first clear virus hit in the macro data.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, November and New Home Sales, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing still strong, but confidence data point to slowing spending growth.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, which is a pity; the Q1 headline will be ruined by the March data.

U.S. Datanote: Chair Powell Speech (Publication Centre)

In one line: The Fed will use its room for maneuver to ease again next month, but the data don't justify aggressive rate cuts.

27 June 2019 Orders, Trade and Inventory Data Suggest Q2 Growth Headed for 21⁄4% (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's raft of data had no net impact on our forecast for second quarter GDP growth, which we still think will be about 21⁄4%.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but advance data suggest that exports crashed in March.

2 March 2017 Money and Credit Data Continue to Sound the Alarm (Publication Centre)

January's money and credit data provided another warning sign that the economy has started 2017 on a weak footing. For a start, the three-month annualised growth rate of M4, excluding intermediate other financial corporations--the Bank's preferred measure of the broad money supply-- declined to 1.8% in January, from 3.1% in December.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weak, but expect better data ahead.

LatAm Datanote: Economic Activity Index, Brazil, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: An ugly start to the second quarter, despite a modest improvement in sectoral data.

2 March 2018 January Money Data Suggest the Economy remains Listless (Publication Centre)

January's money and credit data broadly support our view that the economy still lacks momentum.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft industrial data, and external conditions for EM economies are becoming increasingly challenging

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance and Labour Costs, Germany (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim trade data, but decent labour costs headline.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ouch; but these data often swoon.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pointing to a rebound in the official data in December, though Q4 trading was subdued overall.

12 Jan. 2015 Recent Data Point to Downside Risks for the Brazilian Economy (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in Brazil is not likely to improve significantly this year. Our pessimism was underscored by the November industrial production data last week, showing a contraction of 0.7%, and pushing output to its lowest level since June.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with a big rebound in the official data.

2 July 2019 Money Data Continue to Send a Steady-As-She-Goes Signal (Publication Centre)

May's money and credit data indicate, reassuringly, that the economy still is growing at a steady, albeit unspectacular, rate, despite the endless uncertainty created by Brexit.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Blame Germany; the data were decent elsewhere.

12 Dec. 2014 Mexico's Data have been Upbeat but Downside Risks are Growing (Publication Centre)

Recent Mexican data have been upbeat, supporting our view that a gradual recovery is underway. In the key auto sector, for example, production increased 11.4% year-over-year in November, while exports rose 5.8% year-over-year in October.

12 February 2018 The Next Round of Data Likely Will Dampen Inflation Fears, For a Time (Publication Centre)

It's hard to know what will stop the correction in the stock market, but we're pretty sure that robust economic data--growth, prices and/or wages--over the next few weeks would make things worse.

U.S. Datanote: FOMC Announcement, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: A grudging ease makes one-and-done a decent bet, data permitting.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still no sign of a slowdown in tax receipt data.

1 October 2018 Data Confirm Softer Q3 in Disaster- Hit Japan, but it's not all Bad News (Publication Centre)

A firmer picture is emerging of how Japan's economy fared in Q3, in light of the latest slew of data for August.

22 Mar. 2016 Will Economic Survey Data Step Back From the Brink this Week? (Publication Centre)

Financial markets and economic survey data have been sending a downbeat message on the Eurozone economy so far this year. The composite PMI has declined to a 12-month low, consumer sentiment has weakened, and national business surveys have also been poor.

22 March 2019 What are the Eurozone Wage Data Telling Markets and the ECB (Publication Centre)

The U.S. and Eurozone economies differ in many ways, but for economists, the biggest contrast is between the two regions' labour market data.

24 May 2017 The Eurozone Data Deluge Shows an Economy in Rude Health (Publication Centre)

Investors in the Eurozone were faced with a busy economic calendar yesterday, but the message from the plethora of survey data was simple. The economic recovery in the euro area is strengthening, and risks to GDP growth are firmly tilted to the upside in coming quarters.

22 June 2018 Survey Data Suggest that French Manufacturing will Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of French business sentiment data suggest that confidence in the industrial sector was a little stronger than expected in Q2.

24 May. 2016 EZ PMI Data Suggest that GDP Growth is Slowing Marginally (Publication Centre)

Eurozone PMI data yesterday presented investors with a confusing message. The composite index fell marginally to 52.9 in May, from 53.0 in April, despite separate data that showed that the composite PMIs rose in both Germany and France. Markit said that weakness outside the core was the key driver, but we have to wait for the final data to see the full story.

06 Jan. 2016 Spotlight Back on the ECB after Soft Eurozone Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Disappointing inflation data remain a critical dark spot in the context of otherwise solid evidence of a firming cyclical recovery. Advance data indicate that inflation was unchanged at a mere 0.2% year-over-year in December, with falling food inflation and a dip in services inflation offsetting easing deflation in energy prices. Headline inflation likely will be volatile in coming months. Base effects will push up the year-over-year rate in energy price inflation further in Q1, but we are wary that continued declines in food inflation could offset this effect.

22 Jan 2020 The Outlook for the Q1 PMI Data Suddenly Looks Great (Publication Centre)

Investor sentiment data still indicate that EZ PMIs are set for a significant rebound at start of the year.

01 Feb. 2016 Inflation Data Indicate Bund Buyers Should Exercise Caution (Publication Centre)

Investors were presented with a barrage of mixed EZ economic data on Friday, fighting for attention amid markets celebrating the arrival of negative interest rates in Japan. Advance Eurozone CPI data gave some respite to the ECB, with inflation rising to 0.4% year-over-year in January from 0.2% in December.

22 November. 2016 Will November EZ Survey Data Take a Step Back this Week? (Publication Centre)

November data for most of the major EZ business and consumer surveys arrive this week. We doubt the reports will change our view that EZ GDP growth likely will remain steady at about 1.6% year-over-year in Q4. But appearances matter, and risks are tilted to the downside in some of the main surveys, after jumps in October.

22 Oct. 2015 Claims Signal Payroll Data are Flawed, or Labor Pool Has Run Dry (Publication Centre)

The headline payroll number each month is the difference between the flow of gross hirings and the flow of gross firings. The JOLTS report provides both numbers, with a lag, but we can track the firing side of the equation via the jobless claims numbers. Claims are volatile week-to-week, thanks to the impossibility of ironing out every seasonal fluctuation in such short-term data, but the underlying trend is an accurate measure. The claims data are based on an actual count of all the people making claims, not a sample survey like most other data. That means you'll never be blindsided by outrageous revisions, turning the story upside-down.

24 August 2018 The Glass is Half-Full in the Eurozone PMI Data for August (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI data in the Eurozone economy were a mixed bag.

24 April 2018 Welcome Signs of Stabilisation in the Eurozone PMI Data (Publication Centre)

Eurozone investors will be drawing a sigh of relief after yesterday's PMI data. The alarming plunge in February and March made way for stabilisation, with the composite PMI in the euro area unchanged at 55.2 in April.

24 April 2017 Take None of Last Week's Data at Face Value -- Distortions Abound (Publication Centre)

The gap between the hard and soft data from the industrial economy appeared to widen still further last week. But we are disinclined to take the data--the official industrial production report for March, and the first survey evidence for April--at face value.

23 March 2018 Don't Over-Interpret the Latest Soft Survey Data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of economic data in the Eurozone added to the evidence that economic momentum is slowing.

23 Mar. 2016 Welcome March Rebound in Eurozone Economic Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Economic sentiment data, which rebounded in March, continue to suggest slight downside risk to EZ GDP growth in Q1. The composite Eurozone PMI in March rose modestly to 53.7 from 53.0 in February, only partially erasing the weakness in recent months. The PMI dipped slightly over the quarter as a whole, although not enough to change the EZ GDP forecast in a statistically meaningful way.

24 Mar 2020. Korea's Partial Trade Data for March Point to Hope for a Not-so-Grim Q1 (Publication Centre)

Korea's partial trade data for March suggest that the first quarter may not be as grim as we expected, at least in terms of merchandise trade.

Independent - UK pay growth data disappoints again as real wages decline at fastest rate in three years (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Labour Market data for May

24 July. 2015 While We're Out, What to Look for in the Data, and From the Fed (Publication Centre)

This is the last Monitor before we head to the beach, so we want to offer a few thoughts on the upcoming data and the FOMC meeting while we're out. First, a warning about the second quarter GDP number. We think that the data released so far are consistent with growth at about 3%.

22 February 2017 PMI Data in the Eurozone Signal a Strengthening Economy (Publication Centre)

Our view that EZ survey data would take a step back in February was severely challenged by yesterday's PMI reports. The composite index in the Eurozone rose to 56.0 in February, from 54.4 in January, lifted by a jump in the services index and a small rise in the manufacturing index.

07 Mar. 2016 Poor Q4 GDP Data Don't Signal the End of Italy's Cyclical Upturn (Publication Centre)

Final Italian Q4 GDP data on Friday confirmed that the economy stumbled at the year-end. Real GDP rose 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, slowing from 0.2% in Q3, in line with the initial es timate. But the details were better than the headline. Inventories shaved off a hefty 0.4 percentage points, reversing boosts in Q3 and Q2, so final demand rose a robust 0.5%. Consumption added 0.2pp, while public spending contributed 0.1pp.

26 January 2017 Will Today's Data Shift Fourth Quarter GDP Growth Forecasts? (Publication Centre)

Three of today's economic reports, all for December, could move the needle on fourth quarter GDP growth. Ahead of the data, we're looking for growth of 1.8%, a bit below the consensus, 2.2%, and significantly weaker than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, which projects 2.8%.

10 Feb. 2016 No Relief for German Q4 GDP Forecasts in Yesterday's Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German manufacturing and trade data did little to allay our fears over downside risks to this week's Q4 GDP data. At -1.2% month-to-month in December, industrial production was much weaker than the consensus forecast of a 0.5% increase. Exports also surprised to the downside, falling 1.6% month-to-month. Our GDP model, updated with these data, shows GDP growth fell 0.2%-to-0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, reversing the 0.3% increase in Q3.

26 April 2018 March Trade and Durable Orders Data to Boost Q1 GDP Forecasts? (Publication Centre)

The key data today, covering March durable goods orders and international trade in goods, should both beat consensus forecasts.

10 Sept 2019 What are EZ Investor Sentiment Data Telling You, if Anything (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday suggest that EZ investor sentiment is on track for a modest recovery in Q3.

11 January 2018 November Data Point to a Slight Slowdown in GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's deluge of output and trade data broadly supported our call that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth likely slowed to 0.3% in Q4, from 0.4% in Q3.

20 Feb. 2015 Data Surprises Don't Tell Us Much About the Economy (Publication Centre)

At the headline level, much of the recent U.S. macro dataflow has been disappointing. January retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and both ISM surveys--manufacturing and non-manufacturing-- undershot consensus, following a sharp and unexpected drop in December durable goods orders.

11 June 2019 April Data Point to Flat GDP in Q2, But Q3 Will be Much Better (Publication Centre)

April's GDP data give a grim firs t impression, though the details provide reassurance that the economy isn't on the cusp of a recession.

11 January 2019 How to Read the Recent Collapse in the EZ Economic Data (Publication Centre)

Economic data in the euro area are still slipping and sliding.

26 April 2017 Poor Q1 Data Puts Pressure on BanRep to Cut Rates Rapidly (Publication Centre)

Colombia's economy activity is deteriorating rapidly, suggesting that BanRep will have to cut interest rates on Friday. Incoming data make it clear that the economy has moved into a period of deceleration, painting a starkly different picture than a year ago.

1 Sept. 2016 Soft EZ Inflation Data Pave the Way for QE Extension Next Week (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ CPI report points to a dovish backdrop for next week's ECB meeting. Advance data show that inflation was unchanged at 0.2% year-overyear in August, lower than the consensus, 0.3%. The headline was held back by a dip in the core rate to 0.8%, from 0.9% in July; this offset a lower deflationary drag from energy prices.

22 Apr. 2016 Jobs Data Suggest--But Don't Guarantee Faster Q2 Growth (Publication Centre)

Looking back at the numbers over the past few weeks, it is pretty clear that the gap between the strong payroll reports and the activity data widened to a chasm in the first quarter. We now expect GDP growth of about zero--the latest Atlanta Fed estimate is +0.3% and the New York Fed's new model points to 0.8%--but payrolls rose at an annualized 1.9% rate.

25 Apr. 2016 Brazil is Still Struggling, But Recent Data Are Encouraging (Publication Centre)

Financial market performance and economic survey data on the Brazilian economy have been better than many investors and commentators feared this year. The composite PMI has improved gradually since November last year, consumer sentiment has stabilized, and national business surveys have been less bleak.

09 Feb. 2016 Investors Should Brace for Poor German GDP Data this Week (Publication Centre)

German Q4 GDP data this week will give little comfort to investors searching for signs of a resilient economy in the face of increased market volatility. The consensus expects unchanged GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with solid and stable survey data. But downbeat industrial production and retail sales data point to notable downside risk.

09 Mar. 2016 Why are Chainstore Sales so Weak Compared to the Official Data? (Publication Centre)

The Redbook chain store sales survey used to be our favorite indicator of the monthly core retail sales numbers, but over the past year it has parted company from the official data. Year-over-year growth in Redbook sales has slowed to just 0.7% in February, from a recent peak of 4.6% in the year to December 2014

1 June 2018 Money Data Cast Doubt on Q2 Recovery in Consumers' Spending (Publication Centre)

A rebound in quarter-on-quarter growth in households' spending in Q2, following the slowdown to just 0.2% in Q1, looks less likely following April's money data.

EZ Datanote: Inflation and Unemployment, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

All is calm in these data, for now.

1 November 2017 2017 Eurozone Macroeconomic Data Don't get Much Better than this (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a nearly perfect day for investors in the Eurozone. The Q3 GDP data were robust, unemployment fell, and core inflation dipped slightly, vindicating markets' dovish outlook for the ECB.

25 July 2019 Grim Manufacturing Data Confirm Investors' Priors in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Broadly speaking, yesterday's headline EZ survey data recounted the same story they've told all year; namely that manufacturing is suffering amid resilience in services.

26 May 2017 First Quarter Growth Set to be Revised up, but Data are Very Flawed (Publication Centre)

We didn't believe the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth, 0.7%, and we won't believe today's second estimate, either. The data are riddled with distortions, most notably the long-standing problem of residual seasonality, which depressed the number by about one percentage point.

2 Feb. 2015 Slower Q4 Growth is a Distraction - Labor Data Matter Much More (Publication Centre)

Don't fret over the slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter. The quarterly GDP data are volatile even after several rounds of revisions, and the advance numbers are full of assumptions about missing trade, inventory and capex data, which often turn out to be wrong.

30 November. 2016 EZ Inflation Data Will Disappoint Today, but it Will Rise Further (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance inflation data in Germany fell short of forecasts--ours and the consensus--for a further increase. Inflation was unchanged at 0.8% year-over-year in November, but we think this pause will be temporary.

9 April 2018 Hard Data Suggest that the German Economy Stalled in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production report in Germany capped a miserable week for economic data in the Eurozone's largest economy.

5 Feb. 2015 December Trade Data Likely to Signal Upward Q4 GDP Revision (Publication Centre)

Today's December international trade numbers could easily signal a substantial upward revision to fourth quarter GDP growth. When the GDP data were compiled, the December trade numbers were not available so the BEA had to make assumptions for the missing numbers, as usual.

18 April 2017 The Weather is Playing Tricks with EZ Industrial Production Data (Publication Centre)

As warned--see our Monitor April 7--economic data in the Eurozone disappointed while we were away. Industrial production, ex-construction, in the euro area slipped 0.3% month-to-month in February, and the January month-to-month gain was revised down by 0.6 percentage point to +0.3%.

5 July 2019 Trade Truce 2.0 Means that the BoK will Happily Ignore June's Weak Data (Publication Centre)

Korea's economic data for June largely were poor, and are likely to make more BoK board members anxious ,ahead of their meeting on July 18.

30 September 2016 Today's Eurozone Inflation Data Likely Will Surprise to the Upside (Publication Centre)

Today's advance CPI data will show that EZ inflation pressures rose further at the end of Q3. The headline number likely will exceed the consensus. We think inflation rose to 0.5% year-over-year in September from 0.2% in August, slightly higher than the 0.4% consensus.

17 August. 2016 Job Vacancy Data to Give Early Steer on Recession Odds (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market figures will provide the first "hard data" showing how the economy has fared since the referendum. The headline employment and unemployment numbers will refer to the three months ending June, but data for July will be published on the number of people claiming unemployment benefit and the level of job vacancies.

6 March 2017 PMIs Signal Stronger EZ Growth, but Will the Hard Data Follow? (Publication Centre)

Survey data continue to suggest that GDP growth will accelerate in Q1. The final PMI reports on Friday showed that the headline EZ composite index rose to 56.0 in February, from 54.4 in January, in line with the first estimate.

5 Nov. 2015 Yellen Signals December Action, Data Permitting (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen yesterday reinforced the impression that the bar to Fed action in December, in terms of the next couple of employment reports, is now quite low: "If we were to move, say in December, it would be based on an expectation, which I believe is justified, [our italics] that with an improving labor market and transitory factors fading, that inflation will move up to 2%." The economy is now "performing well... Domestic spending has been growing at a solid pace" making a December hike a "live possibility." New York Fed president Bill Dudley, speaking later, said he "fully" agrees with Dr. Yellen's position, but "let's see what the data show."

4 September 2018 EZ Manufacturing PMIs are Soft, but Base Effects will Lift Q3 data (Publication Centre)

Survey data in EZ manufacturing remain soft. Yesterday's final PMI report for August confirmed that the index dipped to 54.6 in August, from 55.1 in July, reaching its lowest point since the end of 2016.

9 April 2019 February GDP Data to Show Growth only Slightly Below Trend in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Economic data have yielded the limelight in recent months to Brexit news and, alas, we doubt that February's GDP data, released on Wednesday, will reclaim investors' attention.

16 Nov. 2015 Slightly Disappointing Q3 GDP Data Likely Enough for ECB Doves (Publication Centre)

Eurozone GDP data on Friday were better than we expected, but were still soft compared to upbeat market expectations. Real GDP rose 0.3% quarter-onquarter in the third quarter, down slightly from 0.4% in Q2, and lower than the consensus forecast for another 0.4% gain. These data are not a blank check for ECB doves, but they probably are enough to push through further easing in December. This looks odd given growth in the last four quarters of an annualised 1.6%--the strongest since 2011--and probably slightly above the long-run growth rate.

14 Jan. 2016 A Downbeat Outlook for Q4 GDP Data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

EZ survey data were solid in the fourth quarter, pointing to robust GDP growth, but numbers from the real economy have so far not lived up to the rosy expectations. Data yesterday showed that industrial production fell 0.7% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.1% from a revised 2.0% in October. Italian data today likely will force marginal revisions to the headline next month, but they are unlikely to change the big picture.

18 January 2019 Good Economic Data for Bolsonaro and Macri at Least for Now (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirmed that economic activity is improving in Brazil.

9 May. 2016 More Timely EZ GDP Data also Means Larger Revisions (Publication Centre)

The trade-off between the timeliness and accuracy of the data is fundamental to macroeconomic analysis. Coincident data such as GDP, industrial production and retail sales are the most direct measures of economic activity, but their first estimates don't always tell the full story.

3 Oct 2019 Don't Expect the Bank of Korea to Flinch from this Week's Soft Data (Publication Centre)

This week's main economic data from Korea--the last batch before the BoK meets on the 16th--missed consensus expectations, further fuelling speculation that it will cut rates for a second time, after pausing in August.

18 February 2019 Chinese New Year Effects Evident in January's Money and Price Data (Publication Centre)

Take China's data dump last Friday with a pinch of salt, as Chinese New Year--CNY-- effects look to have distorted January's money and price data.

30 July 2018 Mexican Data are Upbeat, Strong Retail Sales and Low Unemployment (Publication Centre)

Economic data in Mexico continue to come in strong.

30 Nov. 2015 Bullish Economic Data Will Not Deter the ECB this Week (Publication Centre)

Bullish money supply data last week added to the evidence that the Eurozone's business cycle is strengthening. Broad money growth--M3--rose to 5.3% year-over-year in October from 4.9% in September. Most of the increase came from a surge in short-term debt issuance, rising 8.4% year-over-year, following an inexplicable 1.4% fall in September.

9 August 2018 War and Peace in China's Trade Data... and Some Capital Flows (Publication Centre)

China's export data shows little impact from trade tensions so far.

30 March 2017 Money Data Highlight the Weak Start to 2017 (Publication Centre)

February's money and credit figures supported recent labour market and retail sales data suggesting that consumers are increasingly financially strained. Households' broad money holdings increased by just 0.2% month-to-month in February, half the average pace of the previous six months.

30 June 2017 EZ Inflation Data are Complicating Life for the ECB and Markets (Publication Centre)

Advance country data indicate that headline EZ inflation fell slightly in June; we think the rate dipped to 1.3% year-over-year, from 1.4% in May.

8 February 2018 Higher-Paid People Drove up January Wages, but Data are Noisy (Publication Centre)

Given the light flow of data this week we want to go back for a closer look at the market-shattering January hourly earnings data.

8 February 2017 German Manufacturing Data Threw a Tantrum in December (Publication Centre)

German manufacturing data are all over the place at the moment. Earlier this week, data showed that new orders jumped toward the end of 2016, but yesterday's industrial production report was a shocker. Output plunged 3.0% month-to-month in December, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -0.7% from a revised +2.3% in November.

17 March 2017 February's Manufacturing Data Flattered by Warm Weather? (Publication Centre)

The latest survey evidence strongly supports our view that momentum is building in the industrial economy, but the official production data continue to lag. Yesterday's March Philly Fed survey was remarkably strong, with the correction in the headline sentiment index -- inevitable, after February's 33-year high -- masking increases in all the subindexes.

7 Apr. 2016 Real Economic Data Point to an Upbeat German GDP Story in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German industrial production data were poor, but better than we expected. Output fell 0.5% month-to-month in February, pushing annual growth down to 1.3% from a revised 1.8% in January. In addition, net revisions to the month-to-month data were a hefty -1.0%, but this is not enough to change the story of a Q1 rebound in industrial production.

7 Apr 2020 The Trio of March Data Looks Bad, But Worse is to Come in April (Publication Centre)

A trio of data releases yesterday provided no relief from the run of abysmal economic news.

16 May 2017 Upbeat March's Data in Brazil Confirms the Recession is Over (Publication Centre)

Economic data released yesterday underscored that Brazil emerged from recession in the first quarter, but further rate cuts are needed. Indeed, the monthly economic activity index--the IBC-Br--fell 0.4% monthto- month in March, though this followed a strong 1.4% gain in February.

7 September. 2016 Q2 GDP Data Add to the Evidence of a Peak in the EZ Business Cycle (Publication Centre)

A plunge in imports saved the EZ economy from a contraction in second quarter GDP. Yesterday's final data showed that real GDP growth rose 0.3% quarter- on-quarter, slowing from a 0.5% jump in Q1. A 0.4 percentage points boost from net exports was the key driving force.

15 July. 2015 Brazil's Data Point To A Prolonged Decline in Consumption (Publication Centre)

Retail sales data released yesterday for Brazil confirmed that weakness in private consumption remains a key challenge for the economy. Retail sales plunged 0.9% month-on-month in May, equivalent to a 4.5% fall year-over-year, the lowest rate since late 2003. On a quarterly basis, sales are headed for a 2% contraction in Q2, pointing to a -0.5% GDP contribution from consumer spending.

4 April 2018 More soft economic data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Economic data in the Eurozone continue to come in soft. Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that the euro area index slipped to an eight-month low of 56.6 in March, from 58.6 in February.

7 July 2017 The Soft and Hard Data Divide Persists in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

The hard numbers in Eurozone manufacturing continue to lag the sharp rise in the main surveys. Data yesterday showed that German factory orders rose 1.0% month-to-month in May, only partially rebounding from a downwardly revised 2.2% plunge in April.

15 August. 2016 Don't Fret Over the July Retail Sales and PPI Data (Publication Centre)

Let's be clear: The July retail sales numbers do not mean the consumer is rolling over, and the PPI numbers do not mean that disinflation pressure is intensifying. We argued in the Monitor last Friday, ahead of the sales data, that the 4.2% surge in second quarter consumption--likely to be revised up slightly--could not last, and the relative sluggishness of the July core retail sales numbers is part of the necessary correction. Headline sales were depressed by falling gasoline prices, which subtracted 0.2%.

4 Dec. 2014 - November Data Might Hide Underlying Labor Market Strength (Publication Centre)

The ADP report yesterday has not changed our view that tomorrow's payroll number will be about 180K, well below our estimate of the underlying trend, which is about 250K. ADP's numbers are heavily influenced by the BLS data for the prior month, and tell us little or nothing about the next official report.

8 Apr 2020 More Solid Pre-Covid-19 Data in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Hard data in the Eurozone continue to tell a story of a relatively bright pre-Covid-19 world.

4 February 2019 Eurozone Inflation Data are Not a Threat to Markets, For Now (Publication Centre)

The days of +2% inflation in the Eurozone are long gone. Data on Friday showed that the headline rate slipped to 1.4% year-over-year in January, from 1.6% in December, thanks to a 2.9 percentage point plunge in energy inflation to 2.6%.

6 September 2017 Harvey set to Distort Chainstore, MBA Data Today, but no hit on ISM (Publication Centre)

Last Friday's August auto sales numbers were overshadowed by the below-consensus payroll report and the six-year high in the ISM manufacturing index, but they are the first data to reflect the impact of Hurricane Harvey.

28 June 2018 Services Data to Highlight Downside Risk to the MPC's GDP Forecast (Publication Centre)

The MPC will be looking for the Q1 national accounts and April's index of services data, both released on Friday, to support its view that the economy hasn't lost momentum this year.

5 Oct. 2015 Less Bad Than Expected Data in Brazil, But the Crisis is Not Over (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic and fiscal outlook has worsened in recent months, and economic activity will likely contract even further in the short-term. Some of last week's economic reports, however, were a bit less bad than of late. The latest industrial production data were less bad than expected in August, but the picture is still very grim. Industrial output plunged 1.2% month-to-month, above the consensus, and allowing the annual rate to stabilize at -9% year-over-year.

6 Nov. 2015 Woeful German Manufacturing Data Curbs Optimism for Q4 (Publication Centre)

German manufacturing data continues to offer a sobering counterbalance to strong services and consumers' spending data. New orders plunged 1.7% month-to-month in September, well below the consensus, pushing the year-over-year rate down to a 1.0% fall from a revised 1.7% increase in August. These data are very volatile, and revisions probably will lift the final number slightly next month, but the evidence points to clear risks of a further decline in the underlying trend of production.

31 January 2017 Focus on Strong EZ Q4 GDP Data On a Busy Day in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Today will be an incredibly busy day for EZ investors with no fewer than eight major economic reports. Overall, we think the data will tell a story of a stable business cycle upturn and rising inflation. Markets will focus on advance Q4 GDP data in France and in the euro area as a whole. Our mo dels, and survey data, indicate that the EZ economy strengthened at the end of 2016, and we expect the headline data to beat the consensus.

17 December 2018 China's Activity Data for November were Poor... the Worst is yet to Come (Publication Centre)

We had expected the batch of Chinese data released at the end of last week to disappoint.

16 May 2017 Manufacturing is Recovering, Despite the Hard and Soft Data Gap (Publication Centre)

The over-hyped mystery of the gap between the hard and soft data in the industrial economy has largely resolved itself in recent months.

8 April 2019 The Plot Thickens in Germany's Manufacturing Data (Publication Centre)

Last week's manufacturing data in Germany left investors with more questions than answers.

17 Feb 2020 Examining the Virus Hit to China's Economy Using Unorthodox Data (Publication Centre)

Data on air quality in China provide some useful insights into the economic disruptions--or lack thereof--caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus from Wuhan and the government's aggressive containment measures.

6 September. 2016 German Services PMI Taints an Otherwise Strong Day for EZ Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ PMI data surprised to the downside. The composite PMI in the euro area dipped to 52.9 in August, from 53.2 in July, below the initial estimate 53.3. The headline was marred by weakness in the German services PMI, which crashed to a 40-month low of 51.7, from 54.4 in July.

9 Oct. 2015 Drag from Net Trade will be Key Story in German Q3 GDP Data (Publication Centre)

Trade data yesterday added to the downbeat impression of the German economy, following poor manufacturing data earlier in the week. Exports plunged 5.2% month-to-month in August--the second biggest monthly fall ever--pushing the year-over-year rate down to 4.4%, from a revised 6.3% in July. Surging growth in the past six months, and base effects pointed to a big fall in August, but we didn't expect a collapse.

Asia Datanote: Money and Credit, China, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: China's October money and credit data make a mockery of the 5bp PBoC rate cut

19 March 2018 Don't Extrapolate Soft EZ Inflation Data, the Low for the Year is In (Publication Centre)

Friday's data confirmed that inflation in the Eurozone slipped to a 14-month low of 1.1%, from 1.3% in January, 0.1 percentage points below the first estimate.

29 July. 2016 Brace for Downside Surprise in Today's Advance Q2 EZ GDP Data (Publication Centre)

Today's Eurozone data schedule is very hectic, but attention likely will focus on advance Q2 GDP data. France, Austria and Spain will report advance data separately ahead of the EZ aggregate estimate, which is released 11.00 CET. This report will include a confidential number from Germany.

29 January 2019 No Trade Data Today, but You Can Assume the Trend is Deteriorating (Publication Centre)

The advance international trade data for December were due for publication today, but the report probably won't appear.

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly, but it was well telegraphed by the advance data.

13 Apr. 2016 Easter Effect Will Play Tricks With Economic Data in Coming Months (Publication Centre)

The "timing of Easter" will feature prominently in our reports over the coming weeks, starting with yesterday's German inflation data. Inflation rose to 0.3% year-over-year in March, from 0.0% in February, in line with the initial estimate.

EZ Datanote: Business Sentiment, France, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slightly confusing manufacturing data; but overall picture is robust.

EZ Datanote: Advance IFO, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: The coronavirus finally arrives in the EZ macro data.

19 July. 2016 EZ July Survey Data Will be Tainted by the U.K. Referendum Result (Publication Centre)

Today's ZEW investor sentiment report in Germany will kick off a busy week for Eurozone economic survey data, which likely will be tainted by the U.K. referendum result. We think the headline ZEW expectations index fell to about five in July, from 19.2 in June, below the consensus forecast, 9.2. Our forecastis based on the experience from recent "unexpected" shocks to investors' sentiment.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation and Unemployment, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft CPI data, but temporary distortions are depressing the core.

EZ Datanote: Advance Q4 GDP and January Inflation, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointingly slow GDP growth at the end of 2019, but in line with surveys and hard data.

13 Apr. 2015 A June Hike Depends on the April, May Payroll Data - Expect Strength (Publication Centre)

Treasury yields closed Friday a few basis points higher across the curve than the day before the surprisingly soft March payroll report. A combination of slightly less dovish-than-expected FOMC minutes, a hawkish speech from Richmond president Jeff Lacker, rising oil prices, and robust--albeit second-tier--data last week seem to have done the work.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Eurozone, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Capex and net trade data are going haywire.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, France, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing output has stalled; trade data point to downward Q3 GDP revision.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, Germany and France (Publication Centre)

In one line: More solid pre-Covid 19 data in Germany; French trade growth is still slowing.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Trade, France, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Horrible manufacturing data, but an upward revision to Q4 net trade looms.

28 March 2018 Recent Data Confirm Argentina's Turnaround but Challenges Remain (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that the Argentinian economy ended 2017 strongly.

2 April 2019 Recent Data Confirm Argentina's Turnaround, but Politics is a Threat (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that the Argentinian economy finally is stabilizing.

19 September. 2016 Soft Colombian Activity Data Pave the Way for Rate Cuts in Early 2017 (Publication Centre)

Recent data have added to the evidence that the Colombian economy stumbled in July. Retail sales plunged 3.3% year-over-year, from an already poor and downwardly revised 0.9% decline in June. The underlying trend is negative, following two consecutive declines, and July's data were the weakest since September 2009.

29 Jan. 2015 Inflation data will be kind to bondholders, for now (Publication Centre)

Last week's QE announcement has made Eurozone inflation prints less important for investors, but the market will still be watching for signs of a turning point in benchmark bond yields. The data are unlikely to challenge bond holders in the short run, however, as the Eurozone probably slipped deeper into deflation in January.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stabilisation in the m/m data, but trend still points to slower output growth.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: No relief; these data are still horrible.

EZ Datanote: Final June Manufacturing PMIs, Money Supply, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim manufacturing, mixed money supply data.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's capex on a much weaker footing than original data showed. Japan's current account surplus will continue to face cross-currents. China's export weakness is not over yet. China FX reserves spared as intervention goes on behind the scenes.

13 December 2018 China's November Activity Data are Set to Disappoint (Publication Centre)

China's October activity data showed signs of the infrastructure stimulus machine sputtering into life. Consensus expectations appear to hold out for a continuation into November, but we think the numbers will be disappointing.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Slowing FAI growth underscores the urgency for more PBoC easing October was painful and the slowdown in Chinese IP growth is far from over and no, households in China won't come to the economy's rescue. Japan sneaks in a tax hike; GDP data unfazed. Japan's tertiary index jars with the GDP data.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Mar 2020 part 2 (Publication Centre)

China's retail sector is on its knees at best. China's IP data suggest that the horrendous PMIs underplayed the carnage. A damning FAI report... tertiary capex should rebound, but the hit to global demand will hold back the secondary industry. China's property market grounds to a halt in February. The Bank of Korea steps in with an emergency cut, despite falling new infections locally.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 18 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Chinese quarterly GDP growth was dire. China's industrial production was due an upward correction. China's retail sales data suggest that households took a Q3 battering. China's FAI growth shows no signs of turning. Japan's CPI avoids deflation.

3 December 2018 Brazil's Solid Q3 GDP Data Pave the Way for an Upbeat 2019 (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that Brazil's recovery has continued over the second half of the year, supported by steady household consumption and rebounding capex.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in China punches through the 3% target. PPI deflation in China should soon bottom out. Japan's rugby boost small in the face of pre-tax front loading. September machinery orders data seriously undermines Japan's "resilient capex" story.

13 Nov. 2015 Soft Q3 GDP Data to Pave the Way for More Monetary Easing (Publication Centre)

Industrial production data yesterday confirmed downside risks to today's GDP data in the Eurozone. Output fell 0.3% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.7% from a revised 2.2% in August. Weakness in Germany was the main culprit, amid stronger data in the other major economies. A GDP estimate based on available data for industrial production and retail sales point to a quarterly growth rate of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, but we think growth was rather lower, just 0.2%, due to a drag from net trade.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Tankan points to a q/q contraction for capex in Q3, but GDP growth overall will stay strong. Japan's unemployment steady, but details bode ill for Q4. September's full-month data dispel some export worries in Korea; expect a Q3 lift from net trade. Korea's PMI pours cold water on the spectacular jobs report for August. September is as bad as it gets for Korean CPI deflation.

3 Mar. 2015 Consumption and Construction Data Point to Sluggish Q1 GDP (Publication Centre)

Barring some sort of miracle, or substantial upward revision to prior data--it happens--first quarter consumption spending growth is unlikely to reach 3%, despite the robust 0.3% gain reported yesterday for January. Part of the problem is a basis effect.

3 Mar 2020 Which Covid-19 Data Matter More, New Cases or Log-Levels (Publication Centre)

Something of a debate appears to be underway in markets over the "correct" way to look at the coronavirus data.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in China is nearing a peak, with pork prices starting to stabilise. November's data confirm that PPI deflation in China has bottomed out. Japan's M2 growth looks exposed to a downward revision. Japan's machine tool orders refuse to turn.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs turn less grim, but look unsupported, for now. China's non-manufacturing PMI receives a one-off singles day boost. Japan's capex data suggests Q3 upgrade. Net trade is shaping up to be a drag on Q4 GDP, as Korean exports remained weak in November. Korea's exit from deflation is complete, thanks largely to more favourable base effects. Korea's PMI jumps in November... and that's before the likely sentiment boost from normalising ties with Japan.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

November's 20-day data confirm that Korea's export slump bottomed out in October

19 Feb 2020 Investor Sentiment Data Signal a Hit to the PMIs, or Do They (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German ZEW investor sentiment survey provided the first clear evidence of the coronavirus in the EZ survey data.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Non-core base effects push Korean CPI inflation to a 14-month high in January. Monetary base data show BoJ back-peddling against virus.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 7 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's December wage data suggest household in no mood to weather tax hike

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's PPI turning the corner. China's CPI inflation should peak this month ber's punchy trade data.

29 Sept. 2015 Don't Believe Case-Shiller Home Price Data - Prices are Rising (Publication Centre)

Today's Case-Shiller report on existing home prices will likely show that August prices were little changed, month-to-month, for the fourth straight month. The slowdown in the pace of price gains since the first quarter, when price gains averaged 1.0% per month, has been startling. In all probability, though, the apparent stalling is a reflection of the quality of the data rather than the underlying reality in the housing market.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was due a correction. Korea's PMI closes out the year strong, chiming with December's punchy trade data.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

PBoC rate cut still on the tame side but more is coming, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI yet to see virus damage, China's profits better than the headline suggests going into the coronavirus hit, Early signs of coronavirus damage in Korea's trade data, Surge in Korea's manufacturing PMI comes to a stop in January

19 August. 2016 Retail Data Point to Soft Second Quarter GDP Growth in Colombia (Publication Centre)

Data this week confirmed that private spending in Colombia stumbled in June. Retail sales fell 0.7% year-over-year, from an already poor -0.4% in May. The underlying trend is negative, following two consecutive declines, for the first time since late 2009. Domestic demand remains subdued as consumers are scaling back spending due to weaker real incomes, lower confidence and tighter credit and labor market conditions.

29 September 2016 What to Look Out for During Friday's Data Deluge (Publication Centre)

The estimate of services output for the first month of the current quarter usually gets lost among the deluge of national accounts and balance of payments data released for the previous quarter.

15 January 2019 What can we Learn from the Weak EZ Manufacturing Data (Publication Centre)

Last week's horrible manufacturing data in the major EZ economies had already warned investors that yesterday's industrial production report for the zone as a whole would be one to forget.

Datanotes

Short, punchy analysis of major economic data, emailed within a few minutes of their release

Financial Times - 'Shackles are still on': analysts respond to UK economic growth data (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. growth data

CNBC - Fed will hike rates in June, regardless of jobs data (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, speaks about how the U.S. Federal Reserve will react to the latest jobs data.

Softer February survey data in the Eurozone (Media Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Eurozone economist Claus Vistesen discusses the latest survey data and political developments in the Eurozone economy.

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing the latest Eurozone Construction data (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing the latest Eurozone Construction data

Business Insider - Trump's trade war is triggering a 'sharp slowdown' among American small businesses (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest NFIB data

CNBC The Fed is addressing the inflation rate (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist, and Vinay Pande, UBS Global Wealth Management head of trading strategies, join "Squawk on the Street" to discuss their forecast for the markets amid strong jobs data.

Financial Times - Wall Street set for gains as cautious optimism ripples through markets (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson with the latest Covid-19 data

Barron's - China's Latest Numbers Aren't as Good as They Look (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on China's PMI data

Financial Times - US stocks on track for gains as coronavirus cases set to peak (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Covid-19 data from the U.S.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The Brexit extension brings some relief.

Question of the Week, WC 7th Oct (Media Centre)

Are there any signs of a Chinese recovery yet? Freya Beamish discusses

THE GUARDIAN - British service sector back in growth, according to latest data (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Services sector

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Dollar dives as weak US retail sales data raises growth fears (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson on December's low US retail sales.

Financial Times - Halifax data strengthen evidence of uptick in UK house prices (Media Centre)

Chief U.K Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Halifax House Prices in July

The Hill - Superb jobs data ensures Dems will have their hands full in midterms (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing U.S. Employment

BBC News - Coronavirus: Record number of Americans file for unemployment (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on today's U.S. Unemployment data

BBC NEWS - US jobs shock as growth slows (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest employment data.

BBC NEWS - UK 'at risk of slipping into recession' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest PMI data

Guardian - Unemployment in US and UK 'may be worse than in Great Depression' (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the latest data from the Eurozone

10 November. 2016 Market Reaction to Trump Shows Britain is No Longer a Safe-haven (Publication Centre)

Donald Trump's victory casts a shadow of political uncertainty over what had appeared to be a decent outlook for the U.S economy. The U.K.'s trade and financial ties with the U.S., however, are small enough to mean that any downturn on the other side of the Atlantic will have little impact on Britain.

11 April 2019 Above-Trend GDP Growth in Q1 Puts the Spotlight Back on the MPC (Publication Centre)

The economy has remained remarkably resilient in the face of intense political uncertainty.

11 April 2018 Core Inflation to Rise Sharply, the Fed will be Watching Expectations (Publication Centre)

Today's March CPI ought to provide further support for the idea that the trend rate of increase in the core index is running at about 0.2% per month, an annualized rate, if sustained, of about 2.5%.

10 Oct 2019 Putting our Money Where Our Mouth is Can the EZ Outperform (Publication Centre)

Gloom and uncertainty are spreading across the global economy as we head into the final stretch of the year.

10 October 2017 Industrial Production Likely to Surprise to the Downside Again (Publication Centre)

Industrial production figures look set to surprise the consensus to the downside again today. We think that production was flat on a month-to-month basis in August, falling short of the consensus forecast of 0.2% growth.

10 September 2018 Inflation in Mexico is Edging Higher, but it Will Fall in the Fourth Quarter (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy's brightest spot continues to be private consumption.

10 September 2018 EZ Investment will Slow in Q3, but Consumption Should Pick Up (Publication Centre)

Friday was a busy day in the Eurozone economy. The third detailed GDP estimate confirmed that growth was unchanged at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, pushing the year-over-year rate down by 0.4 percentage points to 2.1%, marginally below the first estimate,2.2%.

10 Oct 2019 A Fourth Straight 0.3% Core CPI is Unlikely, but Far From Impossible (Publication Centre)

After three straight 0.3% increases in the core CPI, we are in agreement with the consensus view that September's report, due today, will revert to the 0.2% trend.

1 May 2017 Ignore the Weak Q1 GDP Numbers -- they Cannot be Trusted (Publication Centre)

If you apply a seasonal adjustment to a seasonally adjusted series, it shouldn't change. When you apply a seasonal adjustment to the U.S. GDP numbers, they do change. First quarter growth, reported Friday at just 0.7%, goes up to 1.7%, on our estimate.

1 March 2019 Q4 Growth Rescued by Business Spending on IP, but Q1 Set to Soften (Publication Centre)

A quick rebound in growth, after the slowdown to a reported 2.6% in the fourth quarter, is unlikely.

1 March 2018 Eurozone inflation has bottomed for the year (Publication Centre)

House purchase mortgage approvals by the main street banks jumped to 40.1K in January, from 36.1K in December, fully reversing the 4K fall of the previous two months, according to trade body U.K. Finance.

1 May 2018 ISM Manufacturing has Peaked, but don't Expect a Sudden Rollover (Publication Centre)

We're expecting the April ISM report today to bring yet more evidence that the manufacturing cycle is peaking, though we remain of the view that the next cyclical downturn is still some way off.

1 May 2019 The Eurozone Economy Defied the Pessimists in the First Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic headlines in the Eurozone were pleasant reading.

1 May 2019 What Will Chair Powell say About Strong Q1 Growth and Low Inflation (Publication Centre)

The FOMC meeting today will be a non-event from a policy perspective but we are very curious to see what both the written statement and the Chair will have to say about the unexpected strength of the economy in the first quarter.

1 March 2018 China PMIs Trend Down but the February Dip is an Overshoot (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs surprised the consensus forecasts to the downside for February. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.3 in February from 51.3 in January, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 54.4 from 55.3 in January.

1 June. 2016 ISM Set to Slip Below 50, but Will the Fed Care Enough to Hold Fire? (Publication Centre)

When the Fed raised rates in December, it subverted one of its own long-standing conventions by hiking with the ISM manufacturing index below 50. The December survey, released just 15 days before the meeting, showed the headline index slipping to 48.6, the third straight sub-50 reading. It has since been revised down to 48.0, the lowest reading since June 2009.

1 December 2017 The BoK Jumps on the Global Tightening Wave. Rocky Ride Ahead (Publication Centre)

President Moon was elected earlier this year on a promise to rebalance the economy toward domestic demand and reduce export dependency. It's not the first time politicians have received such a mandate.

01 Mar. 2016 Worst is Over for Manufacturers, but no Real Rebound Yet (Publication Centre)

The worst is over for manufacturers, we think. The three major forces depressing activity in the sector last year--namely, the strong dollar, the slowdown in China, and the collapse in capital spending in the oil sector--will be much less powerful this year.

1 February 2018 China PMIs Distorted by Holiday E ects, Missing the Curbs Impact (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs have softened in Q4. Indeed, we think the indices understate the slowdown in real GDP growth in Q4, as anti-pollution curbs were implemented. More positively, though, real GDP growth should rebound in Q1 as these measures are loosened.

1 February 2019 The Mexican Economy Slowed in Q4 Can it Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's first estimate of full-year 2018 GDP in Mexico indicates that growth lost momentum in Q4.

1 June 2018 China's PMIs Signal Another Rise in PPI In ation in May (Publication Centre)

The return of Chinese PPI inflation in 2016 helped to stabilise equities after the boom-bust of the previous year.

1 Nov 2019 Payrolls Set for GM Hit, but the Trend is Slowing too, with Worse to Come (Publication Centre)

We expect to see a 70K increase in October payrolls today.

1 Nov 2019 The Easing Cycle in Brazil is Nearly Over, Chile's Public Chaos Continues (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board-- COPOM--voted unanimously on Wednesday to cut the Selic rate by 50bp to 5.00%, as expected.

10 June 2019 Don't Expect the MPC to Follow in Other Central Banks' Footsteps (Publication Centre)

Interest rate expectations continued to fall sharply last week.

10 Jan 2020 Carney's Rate Cut Meditation Indicates Normalisation is Distant (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate in the first half of this year leapt to 50% yesterday, from 35%, following Mark Carney's speech.

10 June. 2015 ECB policies are partly to blame for low bond market liquidity (Publication Centre)

The last few weeks' action in Eurozone financial markets has shown investors that the QE trade is not a one-way street. Higher short-rates could force the ECB to take preventive measures, but we don't think the central bank will be worried about rising long rates unless they shoot much higher.

10 Mar 2020 Expect China's Imports to Deteriorate Further this Month (Publication Centre)

China's trade balance flipped to an unadjusted deficit of $7.1B in the first two months of the year, from a $47.2B surplus in December.

10 March 2017 Don't Take the Public Borrowing Forecasts at Face Value (Publication Centre)

Investors in the gilt market would be wise not to take the new official projections for borrowing and debt issuance at face value. The forecast for the Government's gross financing requirement between 2017/18 and 2021/22 was lowered to £625B in the Budget, from £646B in the Autumn Statement.

10 Dec 2019 Small Firms Like Rising Stock Prices, even as Trade Uncertainty Continues (Publication Centre)

The monthly survey of small businesses conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business is quite sensitive to short-term movements in the stock market, so we're expecting an increase in the November reading, due today.

10 Dec 2019 Japan's Revised Q3 GDP Growth Reveals a bit More of the Tax Impact (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP growth was revised up, to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.1% in the preliminary reading.

1 Oct 2019 National Accounts Show Stronger and Better Balanced Growth (Publication Centre)

The latest national accounts show that the economy is holding up much better in the face of heightened Brexit uncertainty than previously thought.

1 Oct 2019 The Trouble with China's Private Sector Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs have diverged in the last couple of months.

10 April 2019 Retail Sales Likely Dipped in March, but Remain Firmly on a Rising Path (Publication Centre)

Our view that households will continue to spend more in the first half of this year, preventing the economy from slipping into a capex-led recession, was not seriously challenged yesterday by the BRC's Retail Sales Monitor.

10 August 2017 Chinese Producer Price Inflation is Proving Sticky (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation was unchanged at 5.5% in July; it had been expected to rise modestly. Officially, inflation peaked at 7.8% in February, but we think this peak was artificially high, thanks to seasonal effects. The slowing in PPI inflation since the peak appears to suggest that monthly price gains have slowed sharply. We find little evidence to support this.

10 May 2018 A Horrible Q1 for Manufacturers in France, but Q2 Will be Better (Publication Centre)

The French manufacturing sector slowed more than we expected in Q1.

1 December 2017 The ISM Manufacturing Index is set to Drop, but the Trend Remains Firm (Publication Centre)

All the regional PMI and Fed business surveys we follow suggest that today's national ISM manufacturing report for November will be weaker than in October

25 Oct 2019 A Dignified Farewell by Mr. Draghi, All Eyes Now on Ms. Lagarde (Publication Centre)

The ECB made no changes to policy yesterday, leaving its key refinancing and deposit rates unchanged, at 0.00% and -0.5%, and confirmed that it will restart QE in November at €20B per month.

25 Sept 2019 Japan's September PMI Points to Strong Q3 Deterioration Thereafter (Publication Centre)

Japan's September PMI report showed some slippage, but overall, it suggests that GDP growth in Q3 was a little stronger than the 0.3% quarter- on-quarter rate in Q2.

25 September 2017 Argentina's Economy is Improving, Good News for Macri and Markets (Publication Centre)

Argentina's economy continues to recover steadily.

25 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil and Mexico is Easing, No Immediate Threats Here (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the biggest economies in the region remains close to cyclical lows, allowing central banks to ease even further over the next few months.

25 Mar 2020 The Plunge in Japan's Services PMI Confirms a Recession is Underway (Publication Centre)

If Japan's flash PMIs for March are a sign of things to come, then the government really should get moving on fiscal stimulus.

25 June 2018 The EU and Greek have a Deal, but They'll Meet Again... in 2030 (Publication Centre)

Last week's debt-relief agreement between Greece and its European creditors goes somewhat further than previous instances when the EU has kicked the can down the road.

25 Mar 2020 EZ Recession Confirmed, but how Long will the Slump Last (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's March PMIs confirmed that governments' actions to contain the Covid-19 outbreak dealt a hammer blow to the economy at the end of Q1.

25 September 2017 China Downgraded but Risk of a Default is Slim, China is a Saver (Publication Centre)

S&P downgraded Chinese government debt last week to A+ from AA- yesterday, following a Moody's downgrade last May.

25 September 2018 Has China Stemmed the Decline of Productivity Growth (Publication Centre)

Amid all the trade tensions, it's easy to lose sight of the big picture for China.

26 Feb 2020 Time for a Further Downgrade of Chinese Q1 GDP (Publication Centre)

In our Webinar--see here--we laid out scenarios for Chinese GDP in Q1 and for this year.

26 July 2017 National Surveys are Not Bogged Down by Disappointing PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national business surveys provided an optimistic counterbalance to the underwhelming PMIs on Monday, although they all suggest that the euro area economy is in good form.

26 July 2019 Mexico's Economy is Under Strain, But Falling Inflation is its Last Hope (Publication Centre)

We remain negative about the medium-term growth prospects of the Mexican economy.

26 Feb 2020 The Fed's "Too Soon to Tell" Line Won't Hold if Markets Keep Falling (Publication Centre)

The spread of the Covid-19 virus remains the key issue for markets, which were deeply unhappy yesterday at reports of new cases in Austria, Spain and Switzerland, all of which appear to be connected to the cluster in northern Italy.

26 Feb 2020 Germany Faces Coronavirus Uncertainty in a Weakened State (Publication Centre)

The German economy finished last year on the back foot.

26 April 2018 All Set for a Dovish ECB Meeting Today? (Publication Centre)

The ECB will leave its main refinancing and deposit rates at 0.00% and -0.4% unchanged today, and it will also maintain the pace of QE at €30B per month.

26 April 2019 First Quarter Growth Likely was Very Respectable, Q2 Should be Good too (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to learn today that the economy expanded at a 2.6% annualized rate in the first quarter, rather better than we expected at the turn of the year--our initial assumption was 1-to-2%--and above the consensus, 2.3%.

25 July 2019 A Recovery in Mortgage Lending is Taking Root (Publication Centre)

The recent pick-up in mortgage approvals is another sign that households are unperturbed by the risk of a no-deal Brexit.

25 January 2019 Reality will Hit the Bank of Korea Hard Expect a Year-Long Pause (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday left its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.75%, at its first meeting of the year.

24 July 2018 Mexico's Services Sector Still Driving the Economic Cycle (Publication Centre)

Economic activity in Mexico during the past few months has been resilient, as external and domestic threats, particularly domestic political risks, appear to have diminished.

24 July 2019 Why are Cash Buyers Abandoning the Existing Homes Market (Publication Centre)

The sluggishness of existing home sales in recent months, as exemplified by yesterday's report of a small dip in June, is due entirely to a sharp drop in the number of cash buyers.

24 May 2017 Weak Tax Receipts Cast Doubt on Business Surveys' Optimism (Publication Centre)

April's public finances indicate that the economy has remained weak in Q2, casting doubt on the suggestion from recent business surveys that the slowdown in Q1 was just a blip.

24 Jan 2020 How Soon will the Chancellor Use his Ample Fiscal Headroom? (Publication Centre)

The public finances are in better health than appeared to be the case a few months ago.

24 February 2017 German Economy did Well in Q4, but What Happened to Net Trade? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed German GDP report raised more questions than it answered. The headline confirmed that growth accelerated to 0.4% quarteron- quarter in Q4, from 0.1% in Q3, leaving the year-over- year rate unchanged at 1.7%.

24 Feb 2020 The PMIs are Lost in Translation, Here is What You Need to Know (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMIs were supposed to provide the first reliable piece of evidence of the coronavirus on euro area businesses, but they didn't. Instead, they left economists dazed, confused and scrambling for a suitable narrative.

24 Feb 2020 Virus-Induced Nerves will Persist until Non-China Cases Decline (Publication Centre)

While we were out last week, market nervousness over the Covid-19 outbreak intensified, though most key indicators of the spread of the infection continued to improve.

24 May 2018 April Existing Home Sales Likely to Signal that Activity has Peaked (Publication Centre)

The recovery in existing home sales appears to have stalled, at best.

24 November 2017 Slowdown in German Domestic Demand Will Reverse in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed GDP report in Germany showed net exports propelled GDP growth to a cyclical high last quarter.

25 April 2018 Korean Q1 GDP Growth will Bounce Back, A er Q4 Distortions (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth--to be published on Thursday--should bounce back in Q1 to 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, after the 0.2% drop in Q4.

25 January 2019 Analysts are too Bearish on Housing, but too Bullish on Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Neither of the major economic reports due today will be published on schedule.

25 April 2018 A Warning From the IFO (Publication Centre)

The April IFO business sentiment survey increased the degree of uncertainty over the German economy, following stabilisation in the PMIs earlier this week.

25 April 2018 Brazil's Labour Market Recovery Has Lost Momentum, but it will Improve (Publication Centre)

In Brazil, last week's formal payroll employment report for March was decent, with employment increasing by 56K, well above the consensus expectation for a 48K gain.

24 Oct 2019 A Standing Ovation for Mr. Draghi Today as he Departs the ECB (Publication Centre)

Today's ECB meeting will mainly be a victory lap for Mr. Draghi--it is the president's last meeting before Ms. Lagarde takes over--rather than the scene of any major new policy decisions.

24 October. 2016 Tax Receipt Shortfall Casts Doubt on Economy's Resilience (Publication Centre)

Progress in reducing the budget deficit has ground to a virtual halt, despite the ongoing fiscal consolidation. Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks--PSNB ex.--was £10.6B in September, exceeding the £9.3B borrowed in the same month last year.

26 July 2019 Mr. Draghi Readies his Monetary Policy Bazooka for one Last Time (Publication Centre)

Markets were all over the place yesterday in response to the messages from the ECB.

26 June 2017 Markets are Telling Themselves a Story, Shame it's a Fairytale (Publication Centre)

The core economic narrative in U.S. markets right now seems to run something like this: The pace of growth slowed in Q1, depressing the rate of payroll growth in the spring. As a result, the headline plunge in the unemployment rate is unlikely to persist and, even if it does, the wage pressures aren't a threat to the inflation outlook.

28 Feb 2020 The Fed Can't Stand by as Markets Melt, Expect Easing at Any Time (Publication Centre)

The Fed will soon have to step in to try to put a firebreak in the stock market.

28 Feb 2020 Upside Risk for Mexican Retail Sales, but Total Consumption is What Matters (Publication Centre)

Retail sales in Mexico fell in Q4, but we think households' spending will continue to contribute to GDP growth in the first quarter, at the margin.

28 Jan 2020 Containment Measures Could Mean a Quarterly Fall in Chinese GDP (Publication Centre)

As the situation with the coronavirus develops, and we gain more information on the authorities' response, it's becoming clear that the damage to Q1 GDP is going to be nasty.

28 Apr. Don't Pin Your Hopes on a Post-Referendum Rebound (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 reflects more than just Brexit risk. The intensifying fiscal squeeze, the uncompetitiveness of U.K. exports, and the lack of spare labour suggest that the U.K.'s recovery now is stuck in a lower gear.

27 Sept 2019 Is the "Repo Crisis" a Sign to Batten Down the Hatches for GFC 2.0 (Publication Centre)

In the financial crisis, a squeeze in short-term dollar markets forced banks to sell assets, which were then exposed as soured.

27 October 2017 Third Quarter Growth Should be Solid, Despite the Hurricanes (Publication Centre)

We expect today's first estimate of third quarter GDP growth to show that the economy expanded at a 2.4% annualized rate over the summer.

27 Sept 2019 Core PCE Inflation is Set to Breach the Target in Q1, as Tariffs Bite (Publication Centre)

All eyes today will be on the core PCE deflator for August, which we think probably rose by a solid 0.2%.

28 Jan 2020 Mexican Consumers' Spending Fell in Q4, but Should Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

All the evidence indicates that growth in Mexican consumers' spending is slowing, despite the better- than-expected November retail sales numbers, released yesterday.

28 July 2017 Korean GDP and Chinese Pro ts Con rm China is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth slumped in Q2 to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, from 1.1% in Q1, as both the main drivers--construction and exports--ran out of steam simultaneously. Construction investment grew by 1.0%, sharply slower than the 6.8% in Q1 and contributing just 0.2% to GDP growth in Q2, a turnaround from the 1.1 percentage point contribution in the first quarter.

28 March 2019 Growth is Slowing, but Q1 Unlikely to be as Bad as Feared (Publication Centre)

Fourth quarter GDP growth is likely to be revised down today.

28 March 2019 Super Low Gilt Yields Aren't Warranted by the Economic Outlook (Publication Centre)

Gilt yields have tumbled, with the 10-year sliding to just 1.0%, from 1.2% a week ago.

28 Nov 2019 Spare a Thank You for the Strong and Stable French Consumer (Publication Centre)

French consumers remained in great spirits midway through the fourth quarter. The headline INSEE consumer confidence index jumped to a 28-month high in November, from 104 in October, extending its v-shaped recovery from last year's plunge on the back of the yellow vest protests.

28 March 2019 Further Signs that Negative Rates are Here to Stay in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Bond yields in the Eurozone took another leg lower yesterday.

28 March 2019 China Profits will Bounce Back in March Proper Recovery is Coming (Publication Centre)

China's industrial profits tanked in January/ February, falling 14.0% year-to-date year-over-year, after a 1.9% drop year-over-year in December.

28 June 2019 More Modest Pre-tax Front-Loading for Japan this Time Around? (Publication Centre)

Japan's May retail sales rebound was underwhelming at a mere 0.3% month-on-month, after a 0.1% fall in April.

28 June 2019 Who Will get the Top Jobs in the EU, and Should Investors Care? (Publication Centre)

Last week's capsized European Council summit added to our suspicions that uncertainty over the EU's top jobs will linger over the summer.

27 November 2018 Japan's Flash PMI Puts a Q4 GDP Rebound into Serious Doubt (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI report for November was abysmal, putting the chances of a recovery this quarter into serious doubt.

27 Mar 2020 How to Track the Incoming Crunch in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

The EZ economy's liquidity gears were well-oiled coming into the crisis.

26 September. 2016 When Will Manufacturing Shake off the Summertime Blues (Publication Centre)

We're still no nearer to a definitive answer to the question of what went wrong in the manufacturing sector over the summer, when we expected to see things improving on the back of the rebound in activity in the mining sector, rising export orders and an end to the domestic inventory correction. Instead, the August surveys dropped, and September reports so far are, if anything, a bit worse.

27 April 2017 The Path to Implementing Huge Tax Cuts Looks Insurmountably Steep (Publication Centre)

The tax plan released by the administration yesterday was so thoroughly leaked that it contained no real surprises. The border adjustment tax is dead -- not that we thought it would have passed the Senate in any event -- and the centerpiece is a proposed cut in the corporate income tax rate to 15% from 35%.

27 April 2018 Korean GDP Rebounds Unspectacularly after Q4 Distortions (Publication Centre)

Korean real GDP growth rebounded to 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, after GDP fell 0.2% in Q4. Growth in Q4 was hit by distortions, thanks to a long holiday in October, which normally falls in September.

26 Sept 2019 Foreign Trade Set to Drag on GDP Growth for the Foreseeable Future (Publication Centre)

In the absence of reliable advance indicators, forecasting the monthly movements in the trade deficit is difficult.

26 November 2018 Is a May Rate Hike Nailed-on if a No-Deal Brexit Is Avoided (Publication Centre)

The Bank of England will be dragged into the political arena on Thursday, when it sends the Treasury Committee its analysis of the economic impact of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration, as well as a no-deal, no- transition outcome.

26 June 2018 The German Economy is No Longer Firing on All Cylinders (Publication Centre)

The verdict from the German business surveys is in; economic growth probably slowed further in Q2.

26 Nov 2019 The IFO in Germany Still Tells a Story of Imminent Recession (Publication Centre)

The November IFO report suggests that the headline indices are on track for a tepid recovery in Q4 as a whole, but the central message is still one of downside risks to growth

27 April 2018 The Likely Q1 GDP Growth Slowdown Probably Didn't Happen (Publication Centre)

The first point to make about today's Q1 GDP growth number is that whatever the BEA publishes, you probably should add 0.9 percentage points.

27 Feb 2020 Non-China Covid-19 Spread is Slowing but Big Market Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of Covid-19 cases outside China appears to have peaked, for now, but we can't yet have any confidence that this represents a definitive shift in the progress of the epidemic.

27 June 2018 Aircraft Set to Depress May Durable Orders, but the Core Story is Better (Publication Centre)

We were wrong about headline durable goods orders in April, because the civilian aircraft component behaved very strangely.

27 June 2019 Deal or No Deal Fed Cut or No Fed Cut What Does the PBoC Do (Publication Centre)

In this Monitor, befitting these uncertain times, we set out the decision tree facing Chinese policymakers.

27 Jan 2020 Who are the Biggest Casualties of China's Travel Curbs (Publication Centre)

On Friday last week, the Chinese authorities suspended sales of domestic and international tours, in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus, which started in Wuhan.

27 Jan 2020 The PMI Rebound Should Suffice for the MPC to Stand its Ground (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the composite PMI to 52.4 in January, from 49.3 in December, should convince a majority of MPC members to vote on Thursday to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75%.

27 February 2017 How Quickly Will Core Capital Goods Orders Rebound? (Publication Centre)

Orders for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft, have risen in six of the past seven months. In the fourth quarter, orders rose at a 4.7% annualized rate, in contrast to the 5.3% year-over-year plunge in the first half of the year.

27 February 2019 More Patience from Powell, Despite the Recovery in the Stock Market (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday broke no new ground, largely repeating the message of the January 30 press conference.

24 Feb 2020 PMIs Point to Above-Trend Growth, Despite Virus and Weather Headwinds (Publication Centre)

The flash readings of the Markit/CIPS surveys in February provide reassurance that GDP is on track to rebound in Q1, despite disruption to the global economy caused by the COVID-19 outbreak and bad weather in the U.K. this month.

24 Feb 2020 Covid-19 Takes out Hope of Japan's Q1 Recovery, PMIs Show (Publication Centre)

Japan's January PMIs sent a clear signal that the virus impact is not to be underestimated. The manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6 in February, from 48.8 in January, contrasting sharply with the rising headlines of last week's batch of European PMIs.

20 Feb 2020 Domestically-Generated Inflation Will Rise Further, Ruling Out a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate by June fell to 34%, from 38%, after the release of January's consumer price figures, though investors still see around an 80% chance of a cut by the end of this year.

20 Jan 2020 Weak December Sales Are Noise, Consumer Fundamentals are Solid (Publication Centre)

Expectations that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its meeting on January 30 received a further shot in the arm at the end of last week, when December's retail sales figures were released.

20 Jan 2020 China's Economy is Stabilising, Weaker than the Headlines Suggest (Publication Centre)

Officially, China's real GDP growth was unchanged at 6.0% year-over-year in Q4; low by Chinese standards, but not overly worrying. Full-year growth was 6.1% within the 6.0-to-6.1% target down from 6.7% last year, also in keeping with the authorities' long-term poverty reduction goals.

20 December 2018 Pick a Multiple for EZ Equities Next Year, and Hope for the Best (Publication Centre)

This year has been sobering for Eurozone equity investors.

20 Dec 2019 Banxico to Deliver Further Rate Cuts, Argentina's Recession Ends, Briefly (Publication Centre)

Banxico cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.25% yesterday, as was widely expected, following similar moves in August, September and November.

2 Oct 2019 Japanese Dualism Intensified in Q3 Capex Weak, Consumption Strong (Publication Centre)

Japan's Tankan survey continues to paint a picture of a contracting economy.

20 Dec 2019 Expect a Benign November Core PCE, but Change is Coming in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, the 0.23% increase in the core CPI, reported earlier this month, would be enough to ensure a 0.2% print in today's core PCE deflator.

20 Jan 2020 The ECB Won't Flinch Over the Q4 Jump in EZ Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed euro area CPI report for December confirmed that inflation pushed higher at the end of last year. Headline inflation increased to 1.3% year-over- year, from 1.0% in November, lifted primarily by higher energy inflation, rising by 3.4pp, to +0.2%. Inflation in food, alcohol and tobacco also rose, albeit marginally, to 2.1%, from 2.0% in November.

20 July 2018 Further Downside for the Euro in the Second Half of the Year (Publication Centre)

EURUSD has been battered in recent months, falling just over 6% since the end of April, but almost all indicators we look at suggest that the it will weake further towards 1.10, in the second half of the year.

20 Nov 2019 Which Leading Indicator of Core Goods Inflation Should be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators are giving conflicting signals regarding the outlook for core goods CPI inflation.

20 November 2018 Japan's Trade will Come Back into Balance, but not Until the New Year (Publication Centre)

Looking through recent supply disruptions, Japan's adjusted trade balance seems likely to remain in the red until the new year.

20 October 2017 The Spanish Economy is Resilient to the Chaos in Catalonia, for Now (Publication Centre)

The Spanish economy has been punching above its weight in the current business cycle. Real GDP growth has trended at about 0.8% quarter-on-quarter since 2015, far outpacing the other major EZ economies.

20 Nov 2019 Indian Inflation Smashes Through the RBI's Target, Setting Up a Pause (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in India jumped to 4.6% in October, from 4.0% in September, marking a 16-month high and blasting through the RBI's target.

20 Mar 2020 The ECB Gets in the Fight with a QE Program Worth More Than €1T (Publication Centre)

We have been on the ECB's case recently. The action taken at last week's official meeting--see here--fell short of market expectations, but more importantly, Ms. Lagarde's communication around the decisions was disastrous.

20 July 2018 Japan's Trade Balance Continues to Whipsaw Where is it Going Next (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus has whipsawed recently. Sharp changes are to be expected in January and February, due to the shifting timing of Chinese New Year.

20 June 2018 Monetary Policy Divergence Will Boost the EZ Current Account (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's current account surplus slipped at the start of Q2, falling to €28.4B in April from an upwardly-revised €32.8B in March.

2 Nov. 2015 Inflation to Rise Rapidly, but It won't Stop the ECB in December (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone limped out of headline deflation in October, with inflation rising to 0.0% from -0.1% in September, helped by higher core and food inflation. Energy prices fell 8.7% year-over-year, up trivially after a 8.9% drop in September, but base effects will push up the year-over-rate significantly in coming months. Core inflation edged higher to 1.0% from 0.9% in September, due to 0.1 percentage point increases in both non-energy goods and services inflation.

2 May 2019 Powell Pushes Back on Low Q1 Inflation Fed Base Case Unchanged (Publication Centre)

The Fed yesterday acknowledged clearly the new economic information of recent months, namely, that first quarter GDP growth was "solid", with Chair Powell noting that it was stronger than most forecasters expected.

19 October 2018 Soft September Sales Set the Tone for Retail in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Retail sales fell back to earth in September, indicating that the pick-up in spending over the summer largely was a weather-related blip.

19 September 2017 Separatists in Catalonia are on the Road to Nowhere (Publication Centre)

The face-off is intensifying between Madrid and the pro-independent local government in Catalonia. A referendum on independence in the northeastern state has been rejected by the Spanish government and has been declared constitutionally illegal by the high court.

2 Apr. 2015 Soft signals from Brazil's leading indicators - Further woes ahead (Publication Centre)

It is very difficult to be positive about the Brazilian economy in the short term, with every indicator of confidence at historic lows. The industrial business confidence index fell 9.2% month-to-month in March alone. Capacity use dropped to 79.7% from 81.5% in February, the lowest level in six years, and inventories rose, presumably because businesses over-estimated the strength of sales.

19 October 2017 Slower Depletion of Job Market Slack Eases Pressure to Raise Rates (Publication Centre)

The rate that labour market slack is being absorbed has slowed, potentially giving the MPC breathing space to postpone the first rate rise beyond next month.

19 November 2018 Only a Disaster Would Make the ECB Blink on Ending QE in Q4 (Publication Centre)

It's been a sobering couple of months in the Eurozone economy.

19 March 2019 The Real Story About Recent Volatility in EZ Net Exports (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report showed that the EZ trade surplus rebounded slightly at the start of the year, rising to €17.0B in January, from a revised €16.0B in February, lifted by a 0.8% increase in exports, which offset a 0.3% rise in imports.

19 May 2017 Brazil's Economy Doing Well, But Severe Political Risk is Back (Publication Centre)

Political risk in Brazil has increased substantially, following reports that President Temer was taped in an alleged cover-up scheme involving the jailed former Speaker of the House. If the tapes are verified, calls for Mr. Temer to face impeachment will mount.

2 April 2019 Manufacturing Might have Hit Bottom, but Don't Celebrate Yet (Publication Centre)

We were happy to see the small increase in the March ISM manufacturing index yesterday, following better news from China's PMIs, but none of these reports constitute definitive evidence that the manufacturing slowdown is over.

2 Aug 2019 The BoK Slowly is Setting the Stage for a Quieter Run to the End of 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea yesterday laid out its conditions for following July's rate cut with another.

2 June 2017 PMIs Signal a Strong Q2 for the EZ Manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final May manufacturing PMIs confirmed that the EZ industrial sector is in fine form. The PMI for the euro area was unchanged at a cyclical high of 57.0 in May, in line with the initial estimate.

2 May 2017 Don't get too Excited by the April Jump in EZ Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Eurozone inflation pressures snapped back in April. Friday's advance report showed that headline inflation rose to 1.9% year-over-year, from 1.5% in March, lifted by a jump in the cor e rate to 1.2% from 0.7% the month before.

2 July 2018 Eurozone Inflation to Rise Further, Above 2%, Over the Summer? (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone increased slightly last month, and probably will rise a bit more in coming months.

2 February 2018 A Solid Finish to 2017 for Brazil, Pointing to Upside Risks (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production and labour reports, released this week, confirmed that the recovery remained solidly on track at the end of last year.

2 August 2018 The MPC Won't Pull Its Punches When it Raises Rates Today (Publication Centre)

Investors awaiting today's interest rate decision might be a little unnerved to learn that the MPC has a track record of surprises.

2 Dec 2019 Further Increase in Japanese Unemployment in Store (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate was unchanged, at 2.4% in October, as the market took a breather after September's job losses.

20 Sept 2019 A Pre-Brexit Rate Cut Now is on the Table, But Remains Unlikely (Publication Centre)

It was widely assumed that the MPC simply would regurgitate its key messages from August in the minutes of September's meeting, released yesterday alongside its unanimous no-change policy decision.

21 August 2017 Construction is Propelling the Eurozone Economy in 2017 (Publication Centre)

The construction sector remains a stand-out performer in the Eurozone economy, despite stumbling at the end of Q2.

22 September 2017 Policy Divergence is Back on as the BoJ Stands Pat (Publication Centre)

The BoJ kept policy unchanged yesterday, with the policy balance rate remaining at -0.1% and the 10-year yield target remaining around zero.

23 Aug 2019 Chair Powell will Struggle to Meet Market Expectations Today (Publication Centre)

It's going to be very hard for Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech today to satisfy markets, which now expect three further rate cuts by March next year.

23 February 2017 The IFO Agrees with the PMI: German GDP Growth to Rise in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German IFO survey broadly confirmed the bullish message from the PMIs earlier this week. The headline business climate index rose to 111.0 in February from a revised 109.9 in January, boosted by increases in both the current assessment and the expectations index.

22 September 2017 Angela Merkel will stay as Chancellor, but building a coalition will be tricky (Publication Centre)

Germans head to the polls on Sunday to elect representatives for the national parliament. The media has tried to keep investors on alert for a surprise, but polls indicate clearly that Angela Merkel will continue as Chancellor.

22 Oct 2019 Two Idiosyncratic Factors are Adding to the EZ Economy's Woes (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in the EZ economy is well publicised.

22 Nov 2019 China's Exit from PPI Deflation Next Year will be Short-Lived (Publication Centre)

The PBoC's quarterly monetary policy report seemed relatively sanguine on the question of PPI deflation, attributing it mainly to base effects--not entirely fairly--and suggesting that inflation will soon return.

22 Oct 2019 China-Sensitive Regions are Suffering as the Trade War Worsens (Publication Centre)

After the strong Philly Fed survey was released last week, we argued that the regional economy likely was outperforming because of its relatively low dependence on exports, making it less vulnerable to the trade war.

11 August. 2016 Mortgage Demand is Faltering, Will it Rebound Soon? (Publication Centre)

The medium-term trend in the volume of mortgage applications turned up in early 2015, but progress has not been smooth. The trend in the MBA's purchase applications index has risen by about 40% from its late 2014 low, but the increase has been characterized by short bursts of rapid gains followed by periods of stability.

23 Jan 2020 Korea's Scorching Q4 GDP will be Downgraded, but the Recovery is On (Publication Centre)

GDP growth in Korea surprised to the upside in the fourth quarter, with the economy expanding by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, three times as fast as in Q3, and the biggest increase in nine quarters.

23 Mar 2020 We're Updating our Forecasts, Take them With a Pinch of Salt (Publication Centre)

Economists' forecasts are changing almost as quickly as market prices these days, and not for the better.

24 April 2019 Above-target CPI Inflation Will Return in Q2 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation was steadfast at 1.9% in March, undershooting the consensus and our forecast for it to rise to 2.0%.

23 January 2019 Unemployment in Mexico Ended Q4 Badly Uncertainty is Biting (Publication Centre)

We expect the Mexican economy to continue growing close to 2% year-over-year in 2019, driven mainly by consumption, but constrained by weak investment, due to prolonged uncertainty related to trade.

23 January 2019 Mortgage Applications Point to Rebounding Home Sales in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The weekly mortgage applications numbers have been wild recently, but our first chart shows that the trend underneath the noise is solid.

23 Jan 2020 The CBI's Survey is Another Positive Sign for the PMI, at the Margin (Publication Centre)

Further evidence that the general election has transformed business confidence emerged yesterday, in the form of January's CBI Industrial Trends survey.

23 Jan 2020 The ECB Will Stick to its Guns Today, Negative Rates Work (Publication Centre)

Barring a meteor strike, the ECB will leave its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged today, at 0.00% and -0.5% respectively.

22 May 2019 The MPC Won't Be "Indifferent" if Sterling Falls Further (Publication Centre)

On a trade-weighted basis, sterling has dropped by only 1.5% since the start of the month, but it is easy to envisage circumstances in which it would fall significantly further.

22 May 2018 Retail Sales Likely Recovered in April, but the Trend Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

April's retail sales figures, due Thursday, likely will show that spending recovered from snow-induced weakness in March.

21 June. 2016 Monetary Policy Testimony Won't Signal a Change in Fed Thinking (Publication Centre)

Back in the dim and increasingly distant past the semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony--previously known as the Humphrey-Hawkins--used to be something of an event. Today's Testimony, however, is most unlikely to change anyone's opinion of the likely pace and timing of Fed action.

21 March 2019 Above-Target Inflation over the Spring Will Test the MPC's Patience (Publication Centre)

February's consumer price figures, released yesterday, put more pressure on the MPC to stick to its plans for an "ongoing" tightening of monetary policy, despite the uncertainty created by the Brexit chaos.

21 Nov 2019 EZ Equities are Teasing Investors to Disregard Fundamentals (Publication Centre)

The year so far in EZ equities has been just as odd as in the global market as a whole.

21 January 2019 Governor Kuroda is at the Last Chance Saloon, Q2 is it (Publication Centre)

Forecasting BoJ policy for this year is trickier than it has been in a long time.

21 Jan 2020 The MPC Doesn't Always Deliver What Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

As we write, markets see a 70% chance that the MPC will cut Bank Rate on January 30.

21 August 2018 The End of the Beginning for the Greek Public Debt Tragedy (Publication Centre)

Greece's exit from eight years of near constant bail-out programs raises as many questions as it answers.

21 February 2017 Wages Don't Necessarily Lead Inflation, but Unit Labor Costs do (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen said something which sounded odd, at first, in her Q&A at the Senate Banking Committee last Tuesday. It is "not clear" she argued, that the rate of growth of wages has a "direct impact on inflation".

21 November 2018 Korean PPI Points to Cascading Drops in Inflation Elsewhere in Asia (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation in Korea slowed sharply in October, to a five-month low of 2.2%, from 2.7% in September.

21 Oct 2019 Political Uncertainty Comes to U.S. Markets, What Happens Next (Publication Centre)

In recent client meetings the first and last topic of conversation has been the market implications of the possible departure of President Trump from office.

22 January 2019 Q1 GDP will Take a Hit, Despite Back Pay for Government Workers (Publication Centre)

The chance of a zero GDP print for the first quarter diminished--but did not die--last week when the president signed a bill granting full back pay to about 300K government workers currently furloughed.

22 March 2018 The IFO and EZ manufacturing sentiment likely fell further in March (Publication Centre)

Today's economic calendar in the Eurozone is filled to the rafters.

22 Jan 2020 Existing Home Sales to Rise in H1, Whatever Happened in December (Publication Centre)

The weather-driven surge in December housing starts, reported last week, is unlikely to be replicated in today's existing home sales numbers for the same month.

22 April 2019 So Much for the Q1 Rollover: GDP Appears to have Breached 2% (Publication Centre)

The U.S. consumer is back on track, almost. We have argued in recent months that the sharp slowdown in the rate of growth of consumption is mostly a story about a transition from last year's surge, when spending was boosted by the tax cuts and, later, by falling gas prices, to a sustainable pace roughly in line with real after-tax income growth.

21 September 2017 German PPI Inflation Set to Edge Lower into Year-End (Publication Centre)

German producer price inflation rebounded last month. The headline PPI index rose 2.6% year-over-year in August, up from a 2.3% increase in July, driven almost exclusively by a jump in energy inflation.

21 September 2018 The EZ Consumer is Still in Good Shape (Publication Centre)

Consumer sentiment in the euro area has slipped this year, though the headline indices remain robust overall.

28 November. 2016 Banxico's Balancing Act is Becoming Harder and More Risky (Publication Centre)

Banxico's decisions throughout the past year have been guided by external forces, dominated by the persistent decline of the MXN against the USD and its potential impact on inflation. The MXN has fallen by almost 17% year-to-date and has dropped by an eye-watering 37% since 2014.

28 Oct 2019 China's Q3 GDP was Dire, Official Headlines Don't Tell the Half of it (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth slowed to 6.0% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2 and 6.4% in Q1. Consecutive 0.2 percentage points declines are significant in China.

6 December 2018 Take China's Services PMI with Enough Salt to Alarm your Doctor (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI leapt to an eyebrow- raising 53.8 in November, from 50.8 in October.

6 Feb 2020 The PMIs Point to Stronger GDP Growth in Q1 than the MPC Expects (Publication Centre)

The post-election run of upbeat business surveys was extended yesterday, with the release of the final Markit/CIPS services PMI for January.

6 February 2019 Don't Worry About the Tightening of Bank C&I Lending Standards (Publication Centre)

We are not concerned by the very modest tightening in business lending standards reported in the Fed's quarterly survey of senior loan officers, published on Monday.

6 December 2018 November's Services PMI Bolsters our Below-Consensus Q4 GDP Call (Publication Centre)

The slump in the Markit/CIPS services PMI in November to its lowest level since July 2016 provides the clearest indication yet that uncertainty about Brexit has driven the economy virtually to a stand-still.

6 December 2017 Manufacturing Productivity Rises in China at the Expense of Services (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin services PMI picked up further in November to 51.9 from October's 51.2, but the rebound is merely a correction to the overshoot in September, when the headline dropped sharply.

5 Sept 2019 Japan's Q2 GDP is set for a Minor Downgrade Clouds on the Horizon (Publication Centre)

We've been surprised by the fast rate of Japanese GDP growth in the first half, though the Q1 pop merely was due to a plunge in imports.

6 December 2017 Don't Take Seriously Surveys Pointing to Faster Q4 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

November's Markit/CIPS surveys for the manufacturing, construction and services sectors suggest that GDP growth is on track to strengthen a touch in Q4.

6 June 2018. Brazil's Industrial Sector Maintained Momentum in April, Will it Last? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report in Brazil was sizzling. Headline output jumped 0.8% month- to-month in April--well above the 0.4% consensus-- pushing the year-over-year rate up to 8.9%, a five- year high.

6 June 2019 Japanese Tax Hike Delay now More Likely, Even with a Q1 GDP Upgrade (Publication Centre)

We are sticking to our call for a weak first half in Japan, despite likely upgrades to Q1 GDP on Monday.

6 March 2019 Andean Policymakers in no Rush to Modify their Neutral Policy Stance (Publication Centre)

Chile's IMACEC economic activity index rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, down from 2.6% in December, and 3.3% on average in Q4, thanks mostly to weak mining production.

6 March 2019 ISM Non-manufacturing Rebound is Welcome Further Gains Unlikely (Publication Centre)

The rebound in the ISM non-manufacturing index in February was in line with our forecast, but behind the strong headline, the employment index dropped to an eight-month low.

6 Nov 2019 Some Preliminary Thoughts on EZ Fiscal Policy Next Year (Publication Centre)

Judging by interactions with readers in the past few weeks, fiscal policy is one of the most important topics for EZ investors as we move into the final stretch of the year.

6 March 2018 Andean Economies are Improving, but Protectionist Threats Are a Risk (Publication Centre)

Chile's IMACEC economic activity index rose 3.9% year-over-year in January, up from 2.6% in December, and 2.9% on average in Q4, thanks to strong mining output growth and solid commercial, manufacturing and services activity.

6 March 2017 Fed Fears Hit LatAm FX Last Week - is a Renewed Sell-off Coming? (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have struggled in recent days as it has become clear that the Fed will hike next week. But we don't expect currencies to collapse, as domestic fundamentals are improving and the broader external outlook is relatively benign.

6 Mar 2020 Bad to Worse for Korea's Q1, but MERS Shows Rebound Potential (Publication Centre)

The rapid escalation of Covid-19 cases in Korea in recent weeks has broadened the likely damage to the economy this quarter.

6 Mar 2020 Job Gains Likely Slowed Last Month, but the Covid-19 Hit is Still to Come (Publication Centre)

We think today's February payroll number will be reported at about 140K, undershooting the 175K consensus.

5 October 2018 Should Surveys Pointing to Higher Core Goods Inflation be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

The CPI inflation rate for non-energy industrial goods--core goods, for short--has tracked past movements in trade-weighted sterling closely over the last ten years, because virtually all goods in this sector are imported.

5 Nov 2019 No Relief for Manufacturing in the Eurozone at the Start of Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs for October were grim, but they told investors nothing they don't already know.

4 October 2018 Japan Looks Set for a Weak Q3 Unsurprising After the Q2 Leap (Publication Centre)

Japan's real GDP seems unlikely to have risen in Q3, and could even have edge down quarter-on- quarter, after the 0.7% leap in Q2.

4 October 2018 Will the Consumer Carry the EZ Economy amid External Risks (Publication Centre)

The news-flow in the Eurozone was almost unequivocally bad over the summer.

4 September 2018 Asian PMIs Signal Trade Spat Damage, Korean Uptick is Transitory (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.6 in August, from July's 50.8. This clashed with the increase in the official PMI, though the moves in both indexes were modest.

4 October 2018 ADP Likely Overstates September Payrolls (Publication Centre)

The ADP employment report suggests that the hit to payrolls from Hurricane Florence was smaller than we feared, so we're revising up our forecast for the official number tomorrow to 150K, from 100K.

4 Oct 2019 We're Still Not Buying the PMIs' Recession Message (Publication Centre)

We continue to distrust the suggestion from the Markit/CIPS PMIs that the economy is in recession.

4 Nov 2019 Korea's Export Slump has Bottomed Out... Global Trade will Follow Suit (Publication Centre)

The downturn in global trade looks set to turn a corner, at least judging by the outlook for Korean exports, which are a key bellwether.

4 Nov 2019 The MPC Won't Send Up a Flare While the Outlook Remains Cloudy (Publication Centre)

The economic and political backdrop to this week's Monetary Policy Committee meeting is significantly more benign than when it last met on September 19.

5 Feb 2020 What Does the EU Want out of Trade Negotiations with the U.K. (Publication Centre)

The opening gambits in the post-Brexit trade negotiations were played earlier this week, in speeches from U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier.

5 February 2019 Six Days Later, We're Still Struggling to Make Sense of the Fed's Thinking (Publication Centre)

We very much doubt that Fed Chair Powell dramatically changed his position last week because President Trump repeatedly, and publicly, berated him and the idea of further increases in interest rates.

5 March 2018 China's NPC Annual Session Expectations, Targets and Personnel (Publication Centre)

China's National People's Congress is set to convene its annual meeting next week.

5 May 2017 Mr. Macron should be able to move into the Élysée on Monday (Publication Centre)

This weekend will bring closure to an extraordinary presidential election campaign in France. The polls correctly predicted the first result, and assuming they are right in the second round too, Mr. Macron will comfortably beat Ms. Le Pen.

5 Mar 2020 Does the Fed's Cut Open the Asian Floodgates for Rate Reductions (Publication Centre)

The Fed's unscheduled 50bp cut on Tuesday opens up some space for Asian central banks to follow suit.

5 June 2018 ISM Non-manufacturing Set to Rebound, Watch Employment (Publication Centre)

The headline May ISM non-manufacturing index today likely will mirror, at least in part, the increase in the manufacturing survey, reported Friday.

5 July 2018 ADP Likely to Report Another Solid Gain in Payrolls (Publication Centre)

Payroll growth rebounded to 223K in May, after two sub-200K readings, and we're expecting today's June ADP report to signal that labor demand remains strong.

5 June 2018 Eurozone Investors Haven't Been this Gloomy Since 2012 (Publication Centre)

If you were looking just at investor sentiment in the Eurozone, you would conclude that the economy is in recession.

6 October 2017 September Payrolls Hit by the Hurricanes, but Earnings set to Pop (Publication Centre)

We would be quite surprised if today's official payroll number exceeded the 135K ADP reading; a clear undershoot is much more likely.

6 Sept 2019 Chile's Central Bank Cuts Rates and will Act if the Trade War Escalates (Publication Centre)

Chile's economy started the third quarter decently, after taking a series of hits, including low commodity prices and the slowdown of the global economy.

8 May 2018 Brazil's Q1 Looks Poor - we Expect a Rebound Soon, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Brazil's March industrial production report, released on Thursday last week, was weaker than we and the markets were expecting, while the recent deterioration in sentiment surveys highlights the downside risks to the rather fragile economic recovery.

8 May 2019 Manufacturing in Germany is Not Out of the Woods Yet (Publication Centre)

Demand in German manufacturing rebounded slightly at the end of Q1, though the overall picture for the sector remains grim.

8 Nov 2019 About that German Recession in Q2 and Q3...It's is a Very Close Call (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in Germany endured another miserable quarter in Q3.

8 May 2017 Fed Hawks Will Focus More on Unemployment than Wage Gains (Publication Centre)

At their March meeting FOMC members' range of forecasts for the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of this year ranged from 4.4% to 4.7%, with a median of 4.5%. But Friday's report showed that the unemployment rate hit the bottom of the forecast range in April.

8 March 2019 January's GDP Report to Reassure that Recession Risks Remain Low (Publication Centre)

The sharp 0.4% month-to-month fall in GDP in December and the slump in the Markit/CIPS PMIs towards 50 have created the impression the economy is on the cusp of recession.

8 Jan 2020 Will EZ Inflation be Higher, and Stickier, than Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

The ink has hardly dried on economists' and the ECB's inflation projections for 2020, but we suspect that some forecasters are already considering ripping up the script.

8 June 2017 Subdued Core Inflation Gives ECB Doves the Upper Hand Today (Publication Centre)

The ECB will keep all its policy parameters unchanged today. The refi and deposit rates will be maintained at 0.00% and -0.4%, respectively, and the pace of QE will stay at €60B per month, running until the end of the year.

8 October 2018 Mortgage Refinancing won't be a Tailwind for the Economy Next Year (Publication Centre)

The process of refinancing existing mortgages at ever-lower interest rates has been a boon for the economy in recent years.

9 January 2018 Now is Not the Time to Turn Upbeat on Productivity Growth (Publication Centre)

Last week's news that output per hour jumped by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3--the biggest rise since Q2 2011--has fanned hopes that the underlying trend finally is improving.

9 May 2019 March GDP Likely to Continue the Run of Above-Consensus Prints (Publication Centre)

We're among a small minority of economists forecasting that GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in March.

9 Oct 2019 Anaemic Growth in Chile and Low Inflation Warrants more Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

Chile's inflation outlook remains benign, allowing policymakers to cut interest rates if the economic recovery falters.

9 Sept 2019 China's RRR cut Helps Credit Supply but Demand Still Wanting (Publication Centre)

The PBoC cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio late on Friday--as signalled at last Wednesday's State Council meeting--by 0.5 percentage points, to be implemented from September 16.

9 May 2018 The German Economy Finished Q1 on a Strong Note (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports showed that the German economy firmed at the end of Q1, but this doesn't change the story for a poor quarter overall.

9 Mar 2020 Global Virus Cases Accelerating, but China and Korea Show it's Beatable (Publication Centre)

A third wave of Covid-19 outbreaks is now underway. The first, in China, is now under control, and the rate of increase of cases in South Korea has dropped sharply. The other second wave countries, Italy and Iran, are still struggling.

9 July 2019 Andean Inflation Prospects Remain Benign No Rush to Move Rates (Publication Centre)

Andean inflation remains under control, due to subpar growth, modest pressures on prices for nontradeables, and broadly stable currencies.

9 June. The Surge in April Industrial Production is Just Noise (Publication Centre)

April's 2.0% month-to-month leap in industrial production was the biggest upside surprise on record to the consensus forecast, which predicted no change. The surge, however, just reflects statistical and weather-related distortions. These boosts will unwind in May, ensuring that industry provides little support to Q2 GDP growth. Make no mistake, the recovery has not suddenly gained momentum.

8 Jan 2020 ADP is Unlikely To Repeat November's Huge Undershoot (Publication Centre)

The contrast between November's very modest 67K ADP private payroll number and the surprising 254K official reading was startling, even when the 46K boost to the latter from returning GM strikers is stripped out.

8 February 2017 Housing Market Flagging Again as Income Squeeze Intensifies (Publication Centre)

The MPC's interest rate cut in August, and the continued willingness of banks to lend, bolstered the housing market immediately after the referendum. But the latest indicators suggest that the market is slowing again, as the financial pressures on households' incomes intensify.

7 February 2019 Industrial and Retail Sectors to Drive December GDP Dip (Publication Centre)

December's GDP report, released next Monday, likely will maintain the flow of negative news on the U.K. economy.

7 Jan 2020 The Eurozone Services Sector is Still Holding its Own (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were solid across the board.

7 January 2019 Don't Discount the Upswing in China's Services Caixin (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin services PMI for December surprised well to the upside, providing a glimmer of hope that the economy isn't losing steam on all fronts.

7 February 2018 The Economic Fallout from the Plunge in Equities will be Modest (Publication Centre)

As things stand, we see little reason to revise down our forecasts for the U.K. economy in response to the tailspin in equity markets

7 Feb 2020 December's Crash in German Factory Orders is an Outlier (Publication Centre)

Our hope for a year-end jump in German factory orders was laughably optimistic.

6 Sept 2019 Don't be Swayed if August Payrolls Jump a Real Slowdown is Coming (Publication Centre)

We're nudging up our forecast for today's August payroll number to 180K, in the wake of the ADP report.

6 September 2018 ADP Will Report Another Solid Gain in Private Payrolls for August (Publication Centre)

Labor demand appears to have remained strong through August, so we expect to see a robust ADP report today.

7 January 2019 Eurozone Headline Inflation will Fall Further in Coming Months (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone fell significantly last month, and probably will ease further in Q1.

7 January 2019 The Downbeat PMIs Should be Trusted This Time Around (Publication Centre)

Evidence that mounting concerns about Brexit have caused the economy to slow to a near-halt continued to accumulate last week.

8 August 2017 Chinese Capital Outflows Well -Managed while Conditions Benign (Publication Centre)

The external environment was relatively benign for China in July. The euro and yen appreciated as markets began to question how long policy can remain on their current emergency settings.

8 Dec. 2015 Energy Production Will Depress German Industrial Output in Q4 (Publication Centre)

German industrial output was off to a sluggish start in the fourth quarter. Production eked out a marginal 0.2% month-to-month gain in October, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.0% from a revised 0.4% in September. Manufacturing output rose 0.6%, led by a 2.7% jump in production of capital goods, but the underlying trend in the sector overall is flat. On a more positive note, construction output rose 0.7% month-to-month in October, and leading indicators suggest this could be the beginning of a string of gains, lifting investment spending in coming quarters.

8 Aug 2019 The RBI's Unconventional Rate Cut is Likely to be its Last (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI ventured into the unknown yesterday, cutting its benchmark repo rate further, by an unconventional 35 basis points, to 5.40%.

7 November 2017 JOLTS Report will Confirm that Labor Demand is Rising Strongly (Publication Centre)

No single measure of labor demand is always a reliable leading indicator of the official payroll numbers, which is why we track an array of private and official measures.

7 June 2017 The Slowing in Consumer Credit Demand is Good News (Publication Centre)

Today's consumer credit report for April likely will show that the stock of debt rose by about $15B, a bit below the recent trend. The monthly numbers are volatile, but the underlying trend rate of increase has eased over the past year-and-a-half, as our first chart shows. The slowdown has been concentrated in the non-revolving component, though the rate of growth of the stock of revolving credit--mostly credit cards--has dipped recently, perhaps because of weather effects and the late Easter.

7 Nov 2019 A Rare Batch of Good News in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were mostly positive.

4 Nov 2019 Are Markets Eyeing a Bottom in EZ GDP Growth? (Publication Centre)

We have spent the past few weeks shifting our story on the EZ economy from one focused on slowing growth and downside risks to a more balanced outlook. It seems that markets are starting to agree with us.

4 May 2018 Is China Leaking Financial Fragility, a Financial Crisis in the Making? (Publication Centre)

We've argued for some time that China faces a massive legacy of bad debt that will either have to be dealt with, or will result in the Japanning of its economy.

3 Mar 2020 Expect a "One and Done" Virus Response from the MPC (Publication Centre)

The Bank of England issued a statement yesterday that it is "working closely with HM Treasury and the FCA--as well as our international partners--to ensure all necessary steps are taken to protect financial and monetary stability".

3 May 2018 The Fed Expects Above-Target Inflation Soon, but is Relaxed (Publication Centre)

The Fed pretty clearly wanted to tell markets yesterday that inflation is likely to nudge above the target over the next few months, but that this will not prompt any sort of knee-jerk policy response beyond the continued "gradual" tightening.

3 May 2019 Expect Solid April Payrolls, but Downside Risk for Hourly Wages (Publication Centre)

A robust April payroll number today is a good bet, but a gain in line with the 275K ADP reading probably is out of reach.

3 Mar 2020 A Bad Q1 for LatAm, DM Stimulus will be Only a Temporary Boost (Publication Centre)

It has been a nasty start to the year for LatAm as markets have been hit by renewed volatility in China, triggered by the coronavirus.

3 January 2019 No Respite for Eurozone Manufacturing at the end of 2018 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report in the Eurozone confirmed that the economy slowed further at the end of 2018.

3 Feb 2020 The Eurozone Economy all but Stalled at the End of 2019 (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance Q4 growth numbers in the EZ were a bit of a dumpster fire.

3 January 2018 The Manufacturing Upswing Continues no Sign of Weakening (Publication Centre)

The Manufacturing Upswing Continues; no Sign of Weakening

3 November 2017 Brazilian Manufacturing Continued to Support the Recovery in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector continued to support the economy in Q3. The underlying tr end in output is rising and leading indicators point to further growth in the near term.

3 Oct 2019 ADP Consistent with September Jobs up 150K the Trend is Slowing (Publication Centre)

ADP's report that September private payrolls rose by 135K was slightly better than we expected, but not by enough to change our 150K forecast for tomorrow's official report.

30 April 2018 The Q1 Slowdown Wasn't Just Weather-related (Publication Centre)

Last week's preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP has extinguished any lingering chance that the MPC might raise interest rates at its next meeting on May 10.

30 Jan 2020 Coronavirus Raises the Risks of a Technical Recession in Japan (Publication Centre)

Japan is one of the countries most exposed to economic damage from the coronavirus.

30 January 2018 Is Sterling's Strong Start to 2018 Warranted? (Publication Centre)

Sterling has begun this year on the front foot, rising last week to its highest level against the U.S. dollar since June 2016.

3 September 2018 China's PMIs Point to Tariff Pain, and Only Minimal PPI Inflation Slowdown (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs were little changed in August, with the manufacturing gauge up trivially to 51.3, from 51.2 in July and the non-manufacturing gauge up to 54.2, from 54.0.

3 Sept 2019 Still Mostly Bad News in the Eurozone Manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ manufacturing PMIs for August provided little in the way of relief for the beleaguered industrial sector.

3 October 2017 EZ Manufacturing is Helping to Propel the Cyclical Upturn (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in the Eurozone remained a strong driver of GDP growth in the third quarter. The headline EZ manufacturing PMI rose to 58.1 in September, from 57.4 in August, only a tenth below the initial estimate 58.2.

3 Sept 2019 Don't Rely on the Manufacturing PMI for an Accurate Read in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The fall in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI to 47.4 in August--its lowest level since July 2012--from 48.0 in July suggests that pre-Brexit stockpiling isn't countering the hit to demand from Brexit uncertainty and the global industrial slowdown.

3 Feb 2020 Chile to Perform Relatively Well this Year, the Protest Shock will Ease (Publication Centre)

Chile's stronger-than-expected industrial production report for December, and less-ugly-than- feared retail sales numbers, confirmed that the hit from the Q4 social unrest on economic activity is disappearing.

3 Dec 2019 Tariffs on Steel Aluminium Highlight Downside Risks for LatAm (Publication Centre)

President Trump tweeted yesterday that he wants to re-introduce tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Brazil and Argentina, after accusing these economies of intentionally devaluing their currencies, hurting the competitiveness of U.S. farmers.

29 Jan 2020 What Policy Measures Can we Expect to Cushion Corona-impact (Publication Centre)

The extent of shut downs within China is now reaching extreme levels, going far beyond services and threatening demand for commodities, as well as posing a severe risk to the nascent upturn in the tech cycle.

29 June 2018 Trade Tensions Unveil Chinese Financial Fragility (Publication Centre)

In previous Monitors, we have outlined our base case that the direct impact of tariffs on Chinese GDP will be minimal this year.

29 May 2018 GDP will Rebound in Q2, but a Real Revival will have to Wait Until 2019 (Publication Centre)

Last week's second estimate of GDP reaffirmed that quarter-on-quarter growth declined to 0.1% in Q1--the lowest rate since Q4 2012--from 0.4% in Q4.

29 Jan 2020 Fed on Hold, Awaiting Macro or Virus Developments, IOER to Rise (Publication Centre)

The Fed will do nothing to the funds rate or its balance sheet expansion program today.

29 Aug 2019 Hong Kong It's not Just the Economy, Stupid (Publication Centre)

Concern over individual freedoms was the spark for Hong Kong's recent demonstrations and troubles, and protesters' demands continue to be political in nature.

28 Oct 2019 The Trade Deficit Looks Set to Explode in Q4, it's not Just Boeing (Publication Centre)

Recent export performance has been poor, but the export orders index in the ISM manufacturing survey-- the most reliable short-term leading indicator--strongly suggests that it will be terrible in the fourth quarter.

29 April 2019 Ten Reasons to Expect a Hawkish Nudge from the MPC this Week (Publication Centre)

The MPC likely will vote unanimously to keep Bank Rate at 0.75% on Thursday.

29 May 2019 Consumer and Business Confidence Show Diverging Responses to Brexit (Publication Centre)

May's E.C. Economic Sentiment survey was a blow to hopes that the six-month stay of execution on Brexit would facilitate a recovery in confidence.

29 Nov 2019 Japan is in for a Big Q4 GDP Hit, as Abe's Tax-Smoothing has Fallen Flat (Publication Centre)

Retail sales values in Japan plunged by 14.4% month-on-month in October, reversing September's 7.2% spike twice over.

3 Dec 2019 A Look at the Bright Side in the EZ Manufacturing PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that the headline index in the euro area rebounded further last month.

3 Dec 2019 Chainstore Sales for Thanksgiving Week Usually Look Good, but... (Publication Centre)

The Redbook chainstore sales survey today is likely to give the superficial impression that the peak holiday shopping season got off to a robust start last week.

3 Apr 2020 So, When Will EZ Economies Return to Normal Operation (Publication Centre)

Market-based measures of uncertainty and volatility remain elevated, but if we look beyond the headlines, two overall assumptions still inform forecasters' analysis of the economy and Covid-19.

29 September 2017 Catalonia Will Not Become Independent this Weekend (Publication Centre)

Sunday's referendum on independence in Catalonia is a wild-card. The central government has taken drastic steps to ensure that a vote doesn't happen.

29 Oct 2019 Consumers Still Confident, but Job Growth will Slow, Testing their Faith (Publication Centre)

We aren't convinced by the idea that consumers' confidence will be depressed as a direct result of the rollover in most of the regular surveys of business sentiment and activity.

29 Oct 2019 Monetary Stimulus Alone Won't be Able to End the Next Recession (Publication Centre)

Monetary policy usually is the first line of defence whenever a recession hits.

30 January 2019 Extremely Downbeat Leading Indicators Should not be Trusted (Publication Centre)

Some closely-watched composite leading indicators for the U.K. economy, and for many others, are flashing red.

30 May 2017 How Durable is the Euro's Rally Against the Dollar? (Publication Centre)

Fiscal stimulus, partly financed by a border adjustment tax, and Fed rate hikes, were supposed to be a powerful cocktail driving a stronger dollar in 2017. But so far only the Fed has delivered--we expect another rate hike next month--while Mr. Trump has disappointed in the White House.

4 January 2019 Bank Equities can do Well in 2019, even as Credit Growth Slows (Publication Centre)

Money supply growth in the euro area eased further towards the end of Q4.

4 January 2019 December Payrolls Look Set for Hefty Gain, but Downside AHE Risk (Publication Centre)

Today's December payroll number was a tricky call even before yesterday's remarkably strong ADP report, showing private payrolls soaring by 271K.

4 July 2017 BanRep Speeds up Rate Cuts, Expect Further Stimulus this Month (Publication Centre)

BanRep accelerated the pace of easing last Friday, cutting Colombia's key interest rate by a bold 50 basis points, to 5.75%. Economic activity has been under severe pressure in recent months. The economy expanded by only 1.1% year-over-year in Q1, following an already weak 1.6% in Q4.

4 January 2017 Surging EZ Inflation will Comfortably Beat the Consensus Today (Publication Centre)

German inflation surged in December, pointing to an upside surprise in today's advance EZ report. The headline inflation rate rose to a three-year high of 1.7% year-over-year in December, from 0.8% in November. This was the biggest increase in the year- over-year rate since 1993.

4 February 2019 Unboxing--and Making Sense--of the Collapse in China's Caixin PMI (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI for January was grim, indicating that China's start to the year wasn't as benign as the official surveys suggested.

4 February 2019 Behind the Wild, Unsustainable Jobs Numbers, Wage Gains are Rising (Publication Centre)

Where to start with the January employment report, where all the key numbers were off-kilter in one way or another?

4 February 2019 Brazil's Q4 Industrial Weakness was Offset by Robust Consumption (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production and labour reports, released late last week, confirmed that the recovery was struggling at the end of last year.

4 July 2019 Japan's Services PMI Holds up, is the Sector Really so Resilient? (Publication Centre)

We were surprised to see Japan's services PMI edging up to 51.9 in June, from 51.7 in May. We attributed apparent service sector resilience in April and May to the abnormally long holiday this year.

4 July 2019 We Know the Names of the EU's New Top Brass, and That's About it (Publication Centre)

Europe's political leaders finally made a breakthrough this week in nominating candidates for the top jobs in the EU.

4 March 2019 A Solid Finish to 2018 for Colombia Momentum Will be Sustained (Publication Centre)

Colombia's GDP growth hit a relatively solid 2.8% year-over-year in Q4, up from 2.7% in Q3, helped by improving domestic fundamentals, which offset the drag from weaker terms of trade.

4 March 2019 Does the Flatter Phillips Curve Mean the Next Downturn will be Severe (Publication Centre)

Investors focussed last week on Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony, but he said nothing much new.

4 Mar 2020 The Policy Put is Alive and Well, the ECB will Follow the Fed (Publication Centre)

Markets were left somewhat disappointed yesterday by the G7 statement that central banks and finance ministers stand ready "to use all appropriate policy tools to achieve strong, sustainable growth and safeguard against downside risks."

4 Mar 2020 Revisions Aside, India's Q4 GDP isn't Worrying, nor is the Virus Risk (Publication Centre)

India's GDP report for the fourth quarter surprised to the upside, with the economy growing by 4.7% year-over-year, against the Bloomberg median forecast of 4.5%.

4 June 2018 The Labor Market Continues to Tighten, No end in Sight (Publication Centre)

The May employment report was somewhat overshadowed by the furor over the president's tweet, at 7.15AM, hinting--more than hinting--that the numbers would be good.

4 June 2019 Dark Clouds Still Linger Over Manufacturing in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The most positive thing to say about the EZ manufacturing PMI at the moment is that it has stopped falling.

4 Feb 2020 Focus on the (Publication Centre)

The near-term performance for EZ manufacturing will be a tug-of-war between positive technical factors, and a still-poor fundamental outlook.

4 Feb 2020 Consumer Fundamentals Will Support Spending, Look at Redbook (Publication Centre)

The fundamentals underpinning our forecast of solid first half growth in consumers' spending remain robust.

30 Oct 2019 Will the Pension Reform Bring Back the Yellow Vests in France (Publication Centre)

French consumer confidence and consumption have been among the main bright spots in the euro area economy so far this year.

31 Jan 2020 Ignore Korea's Upbeat Surveys: a Coronavirus Hit is Looming (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea's two main monthly economic surveys were very perky in January.

31 Jan 2020 Lower Potential Growth Estimates Point to Further Passivity on the MPC (Publication Centre)

The MPC's decision yesterday was a "dovish hold", designed to keep market interest rates at current stimulative levels and to preserve the option of cutting Bank Rate swiftly and without surprise, if the economy fails to rebound in Q1.

30 Oct 2019 The Fed will Ease Today, but will Signal a Pause Unless Growth Tanks (Publication Centre)

The stage is set for the Fed to ease by 25bp today, but to signal that further reductions in the funds rate would require a meaningful deterioration in the outlook for growth or unexpected downward pressure on inflation.

30 Oct 2019 BoJ Forecasts Due for a Downgrade, Expect a Package of Measures (Publication Centre)

Markets see a strong possibility, though not a probability, that the BoJ will cut rates on Thursday.

30 May 2018 ADP Likely to Report Solid Gain in May Payrolls (Publication Centre)

The models which generate the ADP measure of private payrolls will benefit in May from the strength of the headline industrial production, business sales and jobless claims numbers.

30 November 2017 Moderating Credit Flows Signal the Economy has Little Momentum (Publication Centre)

October's money and credit report indicates that the economy had little momentum at the start of the fourth quarter.

31 Jan 2020 The Wage Growth Gap Persists: No Sign Yet of a Labor Scarcity Premium (Publication Centre)

It's a myth that the 10-ye ar decline in the unemployment rate has not driven up the pace of wage growth.

31 January 2019 Powell Says No Fed Put, but Stocks Jump and the Curve Steepens (Publication Centre)

The FOMC has gone all-in, more or less, on the idea that the headwinds facing the economy mean that the hiking cycle is over.

4 Dec 2019 Net Trade will Hit Korea's Q4 GDP, Cancelling-out a Domestic Bounce (Publication Centre)

Korea's final GDP report for the third quarter confirmed the economy's growth slowdown to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, following the 1.0% bounce-back in Q2.

4 December 2018 The China-U.S Trade Truce Eases Downside Risks for Chile and Peru (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets and currencies enjoyed a good start to the week, following the agreement between the U.S. and China to pause the trade war.

4 Dec 2019 Better Times Lie Ahead for the Construction Sector (Publication Centre)

2019 is a year many in the construction sector would prefer to forget.

4 April 2018 Japan's Tankan Points to Building Inflationary Pressure (Publication Centre)

The Tankan survey--published on Monday--points to still buoyant sentiment, a further tightening of the labour market, and building inflation pressures.

31 July 2019 The Bank of Japan Snubs the Doves, with its Options Knowingly Limited (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's BoJ statement, outlook and press conference raised our conviction on two key aspects of the policy outlook.

4 April 2017 The Spanish and U.K. Navies won't Have to Fight over Gibraltar (Publication Centre)

The EU's negotiations with the U.K. over Brexit are off to a bad start. The position in Brussels is that negotiations on a new relationship can't begin before the bill on the U.K.'s existing membership is settled. But this has been met with resistance by Westminster; the U.K. does not recognise the condition of an upfront payment to leave.

19 June 2018 Rental Inflation is Set to Rise as Vacancies fall and Demand Increases (Publication Centre)

Housing rents account for some 41% of the core CPI and 18% of the core PCE, making them hugely important determinants of the core inflation rate.

23 February 2018 PBoC Fights Back Against RMB Strength but BoJ Le to Jawbone (Publication Centre)

The PBoC managed to keep interest rates well- anchored around the Chinese New Year holiday, when volatility is often elevated.

17 Feb 2020 January CPI Inflation Set to Undershoot the MPC's Forecast (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation surprises look set to trigger larger- than-usual market reactions over the coming months, given that the MPC emphasised last month that it wants to see domestically-generated inflation rebound swiftly, after falling suddenly late last year, in order to justify keeping Bank Rate on hold.

17 February 2017 Slowing Real Incomes Threaten Spending (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of real personal incomes is under sustained downward pressure, slowing to 2.1% year-over-year in December from 3.4% in the year to December 2015. In January, we think real income growth will dip below 2%, thanks to the spike in the headline CPI, reported Wednesday. Our first chart shows that the 0.6% increase in the index likely will translate into a 0.5% jump in the PCE deflator, generating the first month-to-month decline in real incomes since January last year.

13 March 2019 Tame Inflation and Sluggish Growth the BCB is in no Rush to Shift Tone (Publication Centre)

Brazilian inflation has been well under control in the past few months, still laying the ground for rates to remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

13 Nov 2019 The Labour Market isn't Weak Enough to Warrant More Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The rate of deterioration in the labour market remains gradual enough for the MPC to hold back from cutting Bank Rate over the coming months.

13 November 2018 Argentina's Cyclical Stabilization Continues 2019 Likely Will be Better (Publication Centre)

The sharp currency sell-off in Q2 and Q3, the financial crisis and tighter monetary and fiscal policies have pushed the Argentinian economy under stress since Q2.

13 March 2019 Durable Goods Orders are Noisy, but the Near-term Outlook is Grim (Publication Centre)

Our default position for core durable goods orders over the next few months is that they will fall, sharply.

14 September 2018 Core Inflation won't Keep Falling (Publication Centre)

We were right about the below-consensus inflation numbers for June, but wrong about the explanation. We thought the core would be constrained by a drop in used car prices, while apparel and medical costs would rebound after their July declines.

13 June 2019 The Used Car Drag on Core Inflation Probably is Over Trend Still 2% (Publication Centre)

The core CPI rose only 0.1% in May, marking the fourth straight soft reading.

17 Jan 2020 Manufacturing is Stagnating, but a Modest H1 Upturn is a Fair Bet (Publication Centre)

The trend in manufacturing output probably is about flat, with no real prospect of any serious improvement in the near term.

13 Mar 2020 Lift from Anti-Covid Jobs in Korea won't Last, the BoK will Cut in April (Publication Centre)

The effects of Covid-19--both negative and positive--on Korea's labour market certainly were felt in February.

13 March 2018 February's Core CPI Likely to Mean-Revert (Publication Centre)

Today's February CPI report is very unlikely to repeat January's surprise, when the core index was reported up 0.3%, a tenth more than expected.

13 October 2017 Did the Hurricanes Lift September's Core CPI, as well as the Headline? (Publication Centre)

Three separate stories will come together to generate today's September core CPI number. First, we wonder if the hurricanes will lift the core CPI.

13 Sept 2019 Korea's Jobs Surprise... the Higher they Rise, the Harder they Fall (Publication Centre)

Korea's jobs report for August was a stonker, with unemployment plunging to 3.1%, from 4.0% in July, marking the lowest rate in more than five years.

13 September 2018 Base Effects have Lifted Core CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

Now that the run of unfavorable base effects in the core CPI--triggered by five straight soft numbers last year--is over, we're expecting little change in the year- over-year rate through the remainder of this year.

17 August 2018 China Talks Could Help Support The RMB But it Won't Last (Publication Centre)

China and the U.S. are officially to restart trade talks, according to China's Ministry of Commerce, after previous negotiations stalled in June.

13 September 2018 China's Money Headlines Tell an Old Story Conditions are Loosening (Publication Centre)

China's M2 growth slowed to 8.2% year-over-year in August, from 8.5% in July

17 August 2017 The Manufacturing Recovery Continues, but no Boom in Sight (Publication Centre)

The elevated readings from the ISM manufacturing survey this year have not been followed by rapid growth in output. The headline ISM averaged 55.8 in the second quarter, a solid if unspectacular reading. But output rose by only 1.2% year-over-year, and by 1.4% on a quarterly annualized basis.

17 Dec 2019 Behind the Rebound in November IP, the Underlying Trend is Flat (Publication Centre)

The November industrial production numbers will be dominated by the rebound in auto production following the end of the GM strike.

17 Dec 2019 The EZ PMIs Point to Another Subpar Quarter for the EZ in Q4 (Publication Centre)

We're sticking to our call that the Eurozone PMIs have bottomed, though we concede that the picture so far is more one of stabilisation than an outright rebound.

13 September 2017 Hurricane Reconstruction and Clean-up will Lift PPI, but not Yet (Publication Centre)

The surge in gasoline prices triggered by refinery outages after Hurricane Harvey came much too late to push up the August PPI, but gas prices had risen before the storm so the headline PPI will be stronger than the core.

13 September 2017 Korean Borrowing Begins to Recover, but the Fed isn't Done yet (Publication Centre)

Korean credit markets have begun tentatively to recover after the rise in global interest rates at the end of last year.

17 Feb 2020 Growth Forecasts in the EZ are about to come down (Publication Centre)

Friday' second Q4 GDP estimate revealed that the EZ economy barely grew at the end of 2019. The report confirmed that GDP rose by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, slowing from a 0.3% rise in Q3, but the headline only narrowly avoided downward revision to zero, at just 0.058%

17 Dec 2019 The MPC won't Dwell on December's Weak Flash PMIs (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, December's flash Markit/CIPS PMIs warrant the MPC cutting Bank Rate at its meeting on Thursday.

13 July 2017 Yellen Expects the Labor Market to Tighten Further, and Rates to Rise (Publication Centre)

Chair Yellen broke no new ground in her Testimony yesterday, repeating her long-standing view that the tightening labor market requires the Fed to continue normalizing policy at a gradual pace.

17 October. 2016 Retail Sales are Noisy, but the Trend in Consumption Looks Solid (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the September retail sales report, we can be pretty sure that real consumers' spending rose at a 2¾% annualized rate in the third quarter, slowing from the unsustainable 4.3% jump. That would mean consumption contributed 1.9 percentage points to headline GDP growth.

13 Aug 2019 The Pillars of Japanese Domestic Demand are Built on Shaky Ground (Publication Centre)

GDP growth in Japan surprised to the upside in the second quarter, although the preliminary headline arguably flattered the economy's actual performance.

17 Oct 2019 The Upward Trend in Domestically- Generated Inflation Is Clear (Publication Centre)

The case for the MPC to hold back from implementing more stimulus was bolstered by September's consumer prices figures.

13 Feb 2020 A Double-Dip Recession on the Menu for Italy's in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The fact that Italy's economy is in poor shape will not surprise anyone following the euro area, but the advance Q4 GDP headline was astonishingly poor all the same.

13 Aug 2019 Risks to the Consensus for July CPI Inflation are Skewed to the Downside (Publication Centre)

We expect July's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, to reveal that CPI inflation dropped to 1.8% in July, from 2.0% in June.

17 September 2018 CPI Inflation Likely Returned to its Downward Path in August (Publication Centre)

We expect August's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation declined to 2.4%, from 2.5% in July, matching the consensus and the Bank of England's forecast.

18 April 2018 Don't be Lulled by China's Steady Year-over-Year Growth Rate (Publication Centre)

We can't afford the luxury of believing China's year-over-year growth rates. Real GDP growth was 6.8% year-over-year in Q1, matching the rate in Q4 and Q3, and hitting consensus.

12 November 2018 Mexico's Industrial Sector did Well in Q3, but Politics are a Threat for 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy gathered strength in Q3, due mainly to the strength of the services sector, and the rebound in manufacturing, following a long period of sluggishness, helped by the solid U.S. economy and improving domestic confidence.

12 Sept 2019 Is China Making a Big Monetary Policy Blunder (Publication Centre)

China's money and credit numbers were once again unspectacular in August. M2 growth edged up to 8.2% year-over-year, from 8.1% in July.

17 September 2018 The EZ Output Gap Has Closed, But will Inflation Follow? (Publication Centre)

Last week's comments by Mr. Draghi--see here-- indicate that the ECB is increasingly confident that core inflation will continue to move slowly towards the target of "below, but close to 2%", despite elevated external risks, and marginally tighter monetary policy.

13 Feb 2020 Could Inventory Rundowns Scupper the Q1 GDP Pick-up? (Publication Centre)

Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth last year was buffeted by the accumulation, and subsequent depletion, of inventories, around the two Brexit deadlines in March and October.

13 February 2017 Can French Investment Maintain Momentum in 2017? (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing cooled at the end of 2016. Industrial production slipped 0.9% month-to-month in December, partially reversing an upwardly revised 2.4% jump in November. The main hits came from declines in oil refining and manufacturing of cars and other transport equipment.

17 January 2019 Special report: How Bad is China's Bad Debt, and can the Government Still Manage it? (Publication Centre)

In our daily Monitors we've talked about the four paths that we see for the Chinese economy over the medium-to-long term. First, China could make history and actively transition to private consumption-led growth.

13 Jan 2020 Mexico's Weak Economic Activity Will Push Core Inflation Down (Publication Centre)

Thursday's CPI report in Mexico showed that inflation is edging lower. We are confident that it will continue to fall consistently during Q1, thanks chiefly to the subpar economic recovery, low inertia and the effect of the recent MXN rebound.

17 Jan 2020 Phase One Deal Puts a Grey Cloud Over End-2020, Silver Lining now (Publication Centre)

To avoid rocking the 2020 boat, the Phase One trade deal needed to be sufficiently vague, so that neither side, and particularly Mr. Trump, would have much cause to kick up a fuss around missed targets.

13 January 2017 BCB to Continue Easing Rapidly, Amid Falling Inflation (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank started the year firing on all cylinders. The Copom surprised markets on Wednesday by delivering a bold 75bp rate cut, bringing the Selic rate down to 13.0%. In October and November, the Copom eased by only 25bp, but inflation is now falling rapidly and consistently. The central bank said in its post-meeting communiqué that conditions have helped establish a "new rhythm of easing", assuming inflation expectations hold steady.

17 July 2018 Are we Convinced by China's Q2 Official GDP Growth Story (Publication Centre)

Chinese real GDP growth reportedly edged down to 6.7% year-over-year in Q2, from 6.8% in Q1.

17 July 2019 Punchy Wage Gains are Tying the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)

Labour costs are rising so quickly that the MPC cannot justify an "insurance" cut in Bank Rate to counteract the impending damage from Brexit uncertainty in the run-up to the October deadline.

13 February 2019 A Weaker Pound Wouldn't be a Silver Lining in a No-deal Dystopia (Publication Centre)

Brexiteers have downplayed the economic consequences of a no-deal exit by arguing that a further depreciation of sterling would cushion the blow.

13 February 2019 EZ Industrial Output Slumped in Q4, but Q1 Will Be Better (Publication Centre)

Today's industrial production report in the Eurozone will be poor.

17 November 2017 A Perfect Mix of Low Core Inflation and High GDP Growth in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's CPI report in the Eurozone confirmed that inflation pressures remain subdued, even as GDP growth is accelerating.

17 May 2019 The China-led Industrial Downturn is Ending, Trade War Permitting (Publication Centre)

Evidence in support of our view that the U.S. industrial slowdown is ending continues to mount, though nothing is yet definitive and the re-escalation of the trade war is a threat of uncertain magnitude to the incipient upturn.

16 October 2018 China's GDP Growth Likely Weaker than Friday's Numbers will Show (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth is absurdly stable, but the risks in Q3 are tilted to the downside.

16 Oct 2019 Momentum in Wage Growth Continues to Tie the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)

The Brexit-related slump in corporate confidence finally has taken its toll on hiring.

14 Nov 2019 Don't Mistake Below-Target Inflation for Underlying Weakness (Publication Centre)

The fall in CPI inflation to just 1.5% in October-- its lowest rate since November 2016--from 1.7% in September, isn't a game-changer for the monetary policy outlook.

15 July 2019 Jump in EZ Industrial Output in May won't be Sustained (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in the Eurozone stood tall mid-way through Q2, despite still-subdued leading indicators.

14 Nov 2019 EZ Industrial Production Fell in Q3, and Likely Will Slide Again in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in the EZ was held above water by Ireland at the end of Q3.

14 November 2017 NFIB Survey set to Rebound After the Hurricane Hit, Capex Strong? (Publication Centre)

The minutes of the September 19/20 FOMC meeting record that "...it was noted that the National Federation of Independent Business reported that greater optimism among small businesses had contributed to a sharp increase in the proportion of small firms planning increases in their capital expenditures."

15 July 2019 Early Resolution to the Debt Ceiling would Raise Growth Forecasts (Publication Centre)

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's five-line letter to House Speaker Pelosi on last Friday--copied to other Congressional leaders--which said that "there is a scenario in which we run out of cash in early September, before Congress reconvenes", introduces a new element of uncertainty to the debt ceiling story.

15 June 2017 The MPC's Minutes Will Sound Balanced, Despite Surging Inflation (Publication Centre)

Today's MPC meeting and minutes are the first opportunity for Committee members to speak out in over a month, now that election "purdah" rules have lifted.

14 May 2019 China's Retaliation is a Face-Saving Operation Somebody Tell Mr. Trump (Publication Centre)

Yesterday, China finally retaliated against Mr. Trump's Friday tariff hikes, promising to increase tariffs on around $60B-worth of U.S. goods.

15 Nov 2019 More Evidence Emerges of Stabilisation in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second Q3 GDP estimate confirmed that the EZ economy expanded by 0.2% quarter-on- quarter in Q3, the same pace as in Q2, leaving the year-over-year rate unchanged at 1.2%.

15 Nov 2019 Core Retail Sales Growth has to Slow in Q4, but How Far (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of nominal core retail sales substantially outstripped the rate of growth of nominal personal incomes, after tax, in both the second and third quarters.

14 May 2018 Could Foreign Trade Propel Second Quarter GDP Growth to 5%? (Publication Centre)

To answer the question: Yes, growth could hit 5% in the second quarter.

15 June. Reasons to Remain Calm About Brexit Risk (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, six of the eight opinion polls conducted over the seven days indicate that the U.K. will vote for Brexit on June 23. Our daily updated Chart of the Week, on page 3, shows the current state of play.

14 November 2018 China's Potential H1 Recovery Just Fizzled out... Before it Started (Publication Centre)

Credit to the Chinese authorities for sticking it out with the marginal approach to easing for so long... at least two quarters.

15 Jan 2020 The Rise in Continuing Jobless Claims is No Cause for Concern (Publication Centre)

The weekly jobless claims numbers are due Thursday, as usual, but in the wake of a flood of emails from readers, all asking a variant of the same question-- should we be worried about the rise in continuing jobless claims?--we want to address the issue now.

14 November 2018 Still Enough Slack to Prevent Wage Growth From Rising Further (Publication Centre)

September's labour market report suggests that wage growth won't continue to rise for much longer.

14 Oct 2019: A Brexit Deal with a NI-Only Backstop won't get Through this HoC (Publication Centre)

Sterling leapt to $1.27, from $1.22 last week, amid some positive signals from all sides engaged in Brexit talks.

14 September 2016 German Inflation is Heading Higher, Despite Pause in August (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI report in Germany confirmed the initial estimate that inflation was unchanged at 0.4% year-over-year in August. Deflation in energy prices eased further, but the headline was pegged back by a small fall in the core rate to 1.2% year-over- year, from 1.3% in July.

15 April 2019 What Does the Art 50 Extension Say About the EU's Brexit View (Publication Centre)

The EU's decision to grant the U.K. an extension under Article 50, until October 31, reveals two key aspects of continental Europe's position on Brexit.

15 February 2017 The EZ Economy is Resilient, but Fell Short of Expectations in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy was resilient at the end of last year, but yesterday's reports indicated that growth was less buoyant than markets expected. Real GDP in the euro area rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the same pace as in Q3, but slightly less than the initial estimate 0.5%.

15 February 2018 The Eurozone Recovery is Over, Welcome to the Expansion (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second estimate of Q4 Eurozone GDP confirmed the upbeat story from the advance report, despite the dip in headline growth.

15 Jan 2020 Inflation in the Andean Economies Remains Low, but Policies will Differ (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Andean economies ended 2019 well within central banks' objectives, despite many domestic and external challenges.

14 November 2018 German GDP Growth Crashed in Q3, but Inflation is Firming (Publication Centre)

We remain confident--see here--that today's Q3 GDP report in Germany will be a shocker, but this already is priced-in by markets.

15 February 2019 Seasonal Problems and Sampling Error Explain December's Sales Drop (Publication Centre)

We can't remember the last time a single economic report was as surprising as the December retail sales numbers, released yesterday.

15 February 2019 Japan's Q4 GDP Growth Looks Poor, but the Details are Better (Publication Centre)

Japan's 0.3% quarter-on quarter increase in Q4 GDP was disappointing, on the face of it, after a downwardly-revised 0.7% fall in Q3.

14 June 2017 Fed to Stick to One More 2017 Hike After Today, and Three More in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The Fed will hike by 25 basis points today, but what really matters is what they say about the future, both in the language of the statement and in the dotplot for this year and next.

15 November 2017 Core CPI to Mean-Revert as Rents and Vehicle Prices Rebound? (Publication Centre)

A modest dip in gasoline prices will hold down the October CPI, due today, but investors' attention will be on the core, after five undershoots to consensus in the past six months.

16 Mar 2020 The House Bill is Nothing Like Enough, Much More is Coming (Publication Centre)

The House passage of a stimulus bill last Friday, seeking to ameliorate some of the damage done by the coronavirus outbreak, will not be nearly enough.

14 Jan 2020 Core CPI Inflation is Contained, but Risks Abound for December (Publication Centre)

Our base case is that the core CPI rose 0.2% in December, but the net risk probably is to the upside. We see scope for significant increases in sectors as diverse as used autos, apparel, healthcare, and rent, but nothing is guaranteed.

16 June. Rising Wage Growth Points to a Rate Hike Before Year End (Publication Centre)

The MPC almost certainly will keep interest rates on hold today and likely won't give a strong steer on the outlook for policy in the minutes of its meeting, which are released at mid-day. On the whole, surveys of economic activity have been weak, indicating that GDP growth has slowed sharply in the second quarter.

16 July 2019 No End in Sight Yet to the Industrial Consumer Bifurcation (Publication Centre)

Today's brings the June retail sales and industrial production reports, after which we'll update our second quarter GDP forecast.

14 Feb 2020 Japan's Q4 GDP Likely Plunged, Covid-19 Spells Recession (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP likely dropped by a huge 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, after the 0.5% increase in Q3, with risks skewed firmly to the downside.

14 December 2017 Black Friday Likely Gave a Fleeting Boost to Retail Sales in November (Publication Centre)

The consensus for a mere 0.3% month-to-month rise in retail sales volumes in November looks too timid; we anticipate a 0.7% gain.

16 Oct 2019 China's Q3 GDP Likely was Dismal, Recovery Still Pending (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2.

16 November 2018 The Boost to Retail Sales from Tax Cuts is Fading, as Holidays Approach (Publication Centre)

The headline retail sales numbers for October looked good, but the details were less comforting.

14 August 2017 China's Slowdown Surprised Japan, Inventories to Boost Q2 GDP (Publication Centre)

Japanese domestic demand probably strengthened in Q2, with both private consumption and fixed investment accelerating. Trade and inventories are the key swing components for GDP growth.

16 March 2017 The Fed Won't be Able to Dodge the Fiscal Policy Question in June (Publication Centre)

It might seem odd to describe a meeting at which the Fed raised rates for only the third time since 2006 as a holding operation, but that just about sums up yesterday's actions. The 25bp rate hike was fully anticipated; the forecasts for growth, inflation and interest rates were barely changed from December; and the Fed still expects a total of three hikes this year.

14 Jan 2020 Early Signs of an IP Recovery in India Build the Case for the RBI's Pause (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in India turned around sharply in November, rising by 1.8% year-over-year, following October's 4.0% plunge and beating the consensus forecast for a trivial 0.3% uptick.

16 July 2018 No Hard Evidence that Tariffs are Hurting Business Investment... Yet (Publication Centre)

We can see no hard evidence, yet, that the expanding trade war with China and other U.S. trading partners is hitting business investment.

16 August 2017 As Good as it Gets for German GDP Growth in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Q2 GDP report in Germany was solid, but the headline disappointed slightly. GDP growth slowed to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter from an upwardly- revised 0.7% rise in Q1. The year-over-year rate, however, rose to 2.1% from a revised 2.0% in Q1.

16 April 2018 Core Retail Sales Back on Track After Hurricane-Induced Swings? (Publication Centre)

We are not concerned by the slowdown in retail sales over the past few months.

15 Oct 2019 Breakthrough or False Dawns in Brexit and the Trade Wars? (Publication Centre)

Few Eurozone investors are going blindly to accept the rosy premise of last week's relief rally in equities that both a Brexit and a U.S-China trade deal are now, suddenly, and miraculously, within touching distance. But they're allowed to hope, nonetheless.

15 Oct 2019 Below-Consensus September CPI Won't Strengthen Case for Stimulus (Publication Centre)

We expect September's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation held steady at 1.7%, below the 1.8% consensus.

14 January 2019 The Shutdown is Starting to do Real Damage to Q1 Growth (Publication Centre)

The partial government shutdown is now the longest on record, with little chance of a near-term resolution.

16 Dec 2019 Has the Tories' Landslide Paved the Way for a Rate Hike Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Markets greatly cheered the Conservatives' landslide victory on Friday, but remained cautious on the potential for the MPC to return to the tightening cycle it started in 2017.

16 February 2017 Core inflation isn't rocketing, but the upside risks are real (Publication Centre)

In yesterday's Monitor, we argued that if the upside risk in an array of core CPI components crystallised in January, the month-to-month gain would print at 0.3%, for the first time since August. That's exactly what happened, though we couldn't justify it as our base forecast. A combination of rebounding airline fares, apparel prices, new vehicle prices, and education costs conspired to generate a 0.31% gain, lifting the year-over-year rate back to the 2.3% cycle high, first reached in February last year.

16 Dec 2019 The Trade Deal Should Lift Business Sentiment, but Modestly (Publication Centre)

The "Phase One" China trade deal announced late last week is a step in the right direction, but a small one. With no official text available as we reach our deadline, we're relying on media reporting, but the outline of the agreement is clear.

14 Jan 2020 Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target - 2020 will be Fine (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target; 2020 will be Fine

14 January 2019 Après le Déluge, What Happens to Employment and Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Many economists describe the EZ as the sick man of the global economy, thanks to its incomplete monetary union, low productivity growth and a rapidly ageing population.

12 March 2019 PM Set for Defeat, Whether Today's Vote is "Conditional" or Not (Publication Centre)

Mrs. May looks set to lose the second "meaningful vote" on the Withdrawal Agreement-- WA--today, whether she decides on a straightforward vote or one asking MPs to b ack it if some hypothetical concessions are achieved.

17 Jan 2020 Brazil's Black Friday Lifted Sales in November, but Less than Expected (Publication Centre)

Brazil's consumer resilience in Q3 continued to November, but retail sales undershot market expectations, suggesting that the sector is not yet accelerating and that downside risks remain.

11 Sept 2019 Is the Industrial Sector in France Running out of Luck in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in France rebounded only modestly at the start of Q3, despite favourable base effects.

18 Sept 2019 Retail Sales Likely Continued Their Above-Consensus Run in August (Publication Centre)

We expect August's retail sales figures, released on Thursday, to surprise modestly to the upside, supporting the MPC's view--which it will reaffirm later that day--that no fresh monetary stimulus is required any time soon.

18 April 2018 Mortgage Applications Wilting Under the Weight of Higher Rates (Publication Centre)

Mortgage applications appear to have recovered from their reported February drop, which was due mostly to a very long-standing seasonal adjustment problem

18 Sept 2019 Will the Fed Forecast Meaningfully Higher Tariff-Induced Inflation (Publication Centre)

We'd be very surprised to see anything other than a 25bp rate cut from the Fed today, alongside a repeat of the key language from July, namely, that the Committee "... will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion".

18 September 2017 How Severely Would a Rate Hike Slow the Economy? (Publication Centre)

The MPC took an unprecedented step last week to pave the way for an interest rate rise.

18 September 2017 Will Markets Care About a Falling Trade Surplus in the Eurozone? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus weakened at the start of Q3.

11 Oct 2019 It's a Close Call, but we Still Think Germany was in Recession in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were ugly.

11 October 2018 Italy's Government is Picking a Fight with Both Markets and the EU (Publication Centre)

Base effects were the key driver of yesterday's upbeat industrial production headline in Italy.

11 September 2017 China's Trade Surplus Edges Lower with net Trade Contributing Little (Publication Centre)

Chinese exports grew by just 5.5% in dollar terms year-over-year in August, down from 7.2% in July. Export growth continues to trend down, with a rise of just 0.2% in RMB terms in the three months to August compared to the previous three months, significantly slower than the 4.8% jump at the p eak in January.

18 Sept 2019 Can Investors Count on the EZ as Global Uncertainty Bites (Publication Centre)

Our colleagues have been telling some unpleasant stories recently.

18 Oct 2019 MPs Are Set to Reject the New Brexit Deal, An Election Still is Imminent (Publication Centre)

PM Johnson has conceded considerable ground over the terms of Brexit for Northern Ireland in order to get a deal over the line in time for MPs to vote on it on Saturday, before the Benn Act requires him to seek an extension.

12 February 2018 Chinese Inflation Moderates but Real Incomes are Under Pressure (Publication Centre)

Chinese CPI inflation trends point to diminishing wage growth, as the services sector begins to struggle with the influx of labour displaced by the industrial productivity drive.

18 Oct 2019 Housing Investment Looks Set for a Double-Digit Q4 Jump (Publication Centre)

The declines in headline housing starts and building permits in September don't matter; both were driven by corrections in the volatile multi-family sector.

12 December 2018 Is Britain now at the Steep Part of the Phillips Curve? (Publication Centre)

The sudden jump in the headline, three-month average, growth rate of average weekly wages to a 10-year high of 3.3% in October, from just 2.4% four months earlier, might indicate that the U.K. has reached the sharply upward-sloping part of the Phillips Curve.

12 Dec 2019 The Fed is on Course to do Nothing for the Foreseeable Future (Publication Centre)

The FOMC did mostly what was expected yesterday, though we were a bit surprised that the single rate hike previously expected for next year has been abandoned.

18 October 2018 Headline Inflation in the Eurozone will Stay Close to 2% in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Headline inflation in the EZ remained elevated in September, rising by 0.1 percentage point to 2.1%, while the core rate was unchanged at 0.9% in August; both numbers are in line with the initial estimates.

12 April 2018 China will Take a Breather from PPI Disinflation for a few Months (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation dropped again in March to 3.1%, from February's 3.7%. Commodities were the driver, but base effects should mean the headline rate won't fall further in coming months; it is more likely to rise in Q2.

12 April 2019 Foreign Trade Ought to Offset Weak Q1 Domestic Demand, in Part (Publication Centre)

The sluggishness of consumers' spending and business investment in the first quarter means that hopes of a headline GDP print close to 2% rely in part on the noisier components of the economy, namely, inventories and foreign trade.

11 Nov 2019 Signs of Stabilisation in Chinese Trade, but don't Get too Excited (Publication Centre)

China's October foreign trade headlines beat expectations, but the year-over-year numbers remain grim, with imports falling 6.4%, only a modest improvement from the 8.5% tumble in September.

11 May 2018 Core Inflation is Still Set To Rise, April's Softness won't be Repeated (Publication Centre)

The undershoot in the April core CPI wasn't a huge surprise to us; the downside risk we set out in yesterday's Monitor duly materialized, with used car prices dropping by a hefty 1.6% month-to-month, subtracting 0.05% from the core index.

11 July 2019 Manufacturing in France did Much Better than we had Feared in Q2 (Publication Centre)

France is solidifying its position as one of the Eurozone's best-performing economies.

11 June 2018 China's Trade Surplus Should Start Trending up Again Later this Year (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus has been trending down in the last two years.

19 January 2018 December Retail Sales Likely Reversed Most of November's Gain (Publication Centre)

December's retail sales figures, released today, likely will show that the surge in spending in November was driven merely by people undertaking Christmas shopping earlier than in past years, due to Black Friday.

11 Feb 2020 What's Happened to the Wage- Price Link? (Publication Centre)

At first glance, the continued weakness of domestically-generated inflation, despite punchy increases in labour costs, is puzzling.

11 December 2018 China's Trade Surplus is Set to Rebuild Next Year (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus appears modestly to be rebuilding, edging up to $34.0B in November, on our adjustment, from $33.3B in October. The recent trough was $24.B, in March.

19 July 2019 Talk of Downside Inflation Risk will be Muted by September (Publication Centre)

The spike in the May core CPI, and its likely echo in the core PCE, won't stop the Fed easing at the end of this month.

19 July 2017 Credit Conditions in the Eurozone Continue to Support the Recovery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB bank lending survey suggests that credit conditions remain favourable for the EZ economy. Credit standards eased slightly for business and mortgage lending and were unchanged for consumer credit.

11 December 2017 Will Fiscal and Brexit News Prompt More Rate Hike Talk from the MPC? (Publication Centre)

The MPC was a little irked by the markets' reaction to its November meeting.

19 Feb 2020 The Labour Market is Tight Enough to Sustain Brisk Wage Rises (Publication Centre)

The headline employment numbers masked an otherwise sub-par December labour market report.

11 Mar 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector Started Q1 Strongly, but it won't Last (Publication Centre)

This has been a very complicated week for LatAm policymakers, who are particularly uneasy about the performance of the FX market.

11 March 2019 Labor Demand Slowing, but February Payrolls Overstate the Downshift (Publication Centre)

The 20K increase in February payrolls is not remotely indicative of the underlying trend, and we see no reason to expect similar numbers over the next few months.

18 September 2018 All Aboard for Lower Headline Inflation in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI report confirmed that inflation in the EZ fell marginally in August, by 0.1 percentage points to 2.0%.

11 May 2017 A Poor Q1 for French Industrial Production, but Q2 will be Better (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing came roaring back at the end of Q1. Industrial production jumped 2.0% month-to- month in March, driving the year-over-year rate higher to +2.0%, from a revised -0.7% in February.

11 Mar 2020 Covid-19 has a Strong Grip on Italy, it will be Costly to Beat it (Publication Centre)

It's still unclear how exactly Covid-19 will impact the euro area as a whole, but little doubt now remains that Italy's economy is in for a rough ride.

19 Dec 2019 Below-Target Inflation Next Year Won't Warrant Monetary Stimulus (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 1.5% in November, marking the fourth consecutive below-target print, though it was a tenth above both the MPC's forecast and the consensus.

11 Mar 2020 Chinese PPI Deflation is Back, But Should Disappear by Q4 (Publication Centre)

Collapsing oil prices add fresh deflationary pressure on China.

19 Dec 2019 The Philly Fed Likely is Still Outperforming, Treat with Caution (Publication Centre)

The next couple of rounds of business surveys will capture firms' responses to the Phase One trade deal agreed last week, though the news came too late to make much, if any, difference to the December Philly Fed report, which will be released today.

19 Dec 2019 Don't Expect China's LPR to Move Much, if at all, for December (Publication Centre)

The PBoC reduced its 14-day reverse repo by 5bp to 2.65% in a routine operation yesterday.

12 July 2017 Andean Policymakers Will Meet Market Expectations Tomorrow (Publication Centre)

Markets are looking for the BCCh to remain on hold and the BCRP to ease on Thursday; we think they will be right. In Chile, the BCCh will hold rates because inflation pressures are absent and economic activity is stabilizing following temporary hits in Q1 and early Q2.

11 Sept 2019 The Labour Market no Longer Looks Bulletproof (Publication Centre)

A cursory glance at July's labour market report gives no cause for alarm. The headline, three-month average, unemployment rate returned to 3.8% in July, after edging up to 3.9% in June.

18 July 2019 Below-Target Inflation in H2 Likely Won't Prompt the MPC to Ease (Publication Centre)

The headline rate of CPI inflation held steady at the 2% target in June, in line with the consensus and the MPC's Inflation Report forecast.

12 Mar 2020 The ECB will Deliver, a Rate Cut, More QE and TLTROs are Coming (Publication Centre)

The Fed paved the way with a 50bp emergency rate cut on March 3, with more to come.

18 July 2018 The Subdued Trend in Wage Growth is Unlikely to Improve Soon (Publication Centre)

The long-awaited decisive upturn in wage growth still hasn't emerged. Year-over-year growth in average weekly wages, excluding bonuses, held steady at 2.6% in May.

12 June 2018 Inflation Likely Held Steady in May, but a Brief Pick-up Lies Ahead (Publication Centre)

May's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation held steady at 2.4%--matching the consensus and the MPC's forecast--though the risks lie to the upside.

12 June 2018 Core Inflation to Trend Gently Higher - Many Risks in Both Direction (Publication Centre)

We continue to expect core CPI inflation to drift up further over the course of this year, partly because of adverse base effects running through November, but it's hard to expect a serious acceleration in the monthly run rate when the rate of increase of unit labor costs is so low.

18 Dec 2019 Boeing's Production Cut will Depress GDP Slightly, IP Hit Much Harder (Publication Centre)

Boeing's announcement that it will temporarily cut production of 737MAX aircraft to zero in January, from the current 42 per month pace, will depress first quarter economic growth, though not by much.

18 December 2018 China's Property Market Boomlet is Set to Lose Steam (Publication Centre)

New home price growth in China has held up longer than we expected.

18 Mar 2020 How Long Until the Labour Market Rolls Over? (Publication Centre)

The labour market was pretty robust before the coronavirus crisis.

12 June 2018 Should Eurozone Investors Fear U.S. Import Tariffs on Cars? (Publication Centre)

Predictably, last weekend's G7 meeting in Canada ended in acrimony between the U.S. and its key trading partners.

12 July 2019 What's Behind China's Likely 0.2pp Slippage in Q2 Real GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

China's Q2 official GDP growth, to be released on Monday, likely slowed to 6.2% year-over-year, from 6.4% in Q1.

12 July. 2016 EZ Credit Markets Are Surging, But Equities Can't Keep Up (Publication Centre)

Eurozone capital markets have been split across the main asset classes this year. Equity investors have had a nightmare. The MSCI EU ex-UK index is down 10.6% year-to-date, a remarkably poor performance given additional QE from the ECB and stable GDP growth. Corporate bonds, on the other hand, are sizzling.

18 July 2017 The Conundrum of Germany's Huge Current Account Surplus (Publication Centre)

No subject in the EZ economy is a source of more dispute than Germany's ballooning current account surplus. The Economist recently identified he German surplus as a problem for the world economy.

18 December 2018 The ECB will have to Lower its Core CPI Forecast, Again, in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in the Eurozone edged lower last month.

18 Mar 2020 What is the Cost of Covering EZ Workers' Covid-19 Income Loss (Publication Centre)

Wage growth in the euro area slowed slightly last year, consistent with the rapid deceleration in economic growth since the end of 2017, though it remained robust overall.

12 March 2018 Modest Inflation Pressures will Allow the BCB to Deliver a Final Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

Brazilian inflation has been well under control in the past few months, laying the ground for a final rate cut at the monetary policy meeting on March 21.

12 June 2018 Don't Jump on China's PPI Inflation Pick-up - Inflation will Slow in Q3 (Publication Centre)

China's PPI inflation has been trending down since early 2017.

12 July 2019 June's Core CPI Makes it Clear that a 50bp Ease is an Unnecessary Risk (Publication Centre)

Monthly core CPI prints of 0.3% are unusual; June's was the first since January 2018, so it requires investigation.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Growth isn't slow enough to warrant a rate cut.

LatAm Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another bold cut, but the easing cycle is nearly over.

U.K. Datanote U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: A worrying step change in the impact of Brexit uncertainty.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, June and Q2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't panic; inventories are to blame for the below-consensus print.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation, Chile, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest m/m increase, but the CLP sell-off in November poses upside risks.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not bad, but Q3 as a whole likely was soft.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surprisingly strong.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Poor performance likely due to warm weather hitting demand for clothing.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation, Chile, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: A sharp m/m rebound, but it won't impede a rate cut in December.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation, Chile, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pressures are well under control; the BCCh to remain on the sidelines, for now.

U.K. Datanote U.K. Car Registrations, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pronounced weakness in Q2 likely a consequence of the original Brexit deadline.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another poor performance is underway in Q3.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible; Q4 GDP growth set for downward revision later this week.

U.K. Datanote U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stagnation unlikely to persist in Q3.

LatAm Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest rate cut, and the COPOM signals the end of the easing cycle.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably still artificially low due to the original Brexit deadline.

LatAm Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold for now; progress on pension reform is the key.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Drop almost entirely due to a reversal of the pre-Brexit stockpiling boost.

LatAm Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bold cut, and further easing in Q1 is live.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation, Chile, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: A sharp rebound, but the weakness of growth and fading one-time shocks will cap inflation soon.

LatAm Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bold rate cut, and the COPOM will act again if required.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Before Covid-19 everything looked o.k.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Big upside surprise should quash near-term rate cut speculation.

LatAm Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bold cut to help the economic recovery, more to come.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Undermining the case for a rate cut.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation, Chile, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: An unexpected fall, strengthening BCCh doves.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation, Chile, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Underlying pressures are tame, despite the CLP sell-off in early Q4.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stung by weakness in output of electronics and pharmaceuticals.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Balance of Payments, Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The first real evidence that foreign companies are abandoning Britain.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Balance of Payments, Q2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Persistently large deficit leaves sterling vulnerable in a Brexit crisis.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Beef prices drive up inflation, but underlying pressures will remain low.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumers remain unperturbed by Brexit risks.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation is well under control; the BCB will cut rates next week.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Underlying pressures will remain low, despite the food-related shock.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: A mediocre month, but a lasting slowdown isn't likely.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent, but Q3 as a whole doesn't look good.

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A rebound, but the overall message is still one of acute recession risk.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A sharp increase, but due mainly to temporary factors.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lower energy prices push inflation down at the end of Q2.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: No serious inflation threats, at least for now.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Likely to be just an isolated bad month.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Well-behaved inflation in September supports the case for further monetary easing.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably just one isolated soft month; consumers have the means to spend more.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation falls sharply helped, by a favourable base effect and a sluggish economic recovery.

U.K. Datanote: Nationwide House Prices, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Flat in Q1, but scope for modest gains ahead.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Brazilian inflation is well under control, giving the COPOM room for manoeuvre.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but probably not enough to salvage the Q2 number.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Crisis? What crisis?

LatAm Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another bold cut and more stimulus is likely.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation, Chile, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly; but pressures likely will ease in the near term.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. GDP, September and Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downside surprise comes with a silver lining.

U.K. Datanote: Markit CIPS Services Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stagnation signal should be disregarded, again.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Halifax House Price Index, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slower growth reported following methodological improvements.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Low inflation still gives the BCB board room for manoeuvre.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Halifax House Price Index, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still misleadingly upbeat.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Low inflation keeps the door open for further rate cuts.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: We'll take any increase here, but the trend still looks grim.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: The next few months will be better, but Q4 as a whole looks grim.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Halifax House Price Index, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Starting to converge with other weaker measures.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Halifax House Price Index, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Irreconcilable with all other evidence.

U.K. Datanote: Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slowing, but not as sharply as we had feared.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another signal of feeble economic activity

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another weak survey, but production will rebound in Q3.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slumping as firms run down inventories.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: No sign of a turnaround yet.

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still grim.

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bit of relief, but still grim overall.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Payback for the Brexit-related surge in Q1.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Mexico, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Poor and downside risks remain.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Mexico, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A decent rebound, but risks remain.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Mexico, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust, but downside risks remain.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Mexico, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: A good start to the second quarter but downside risks remain.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Chile, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: A weak report, but Q3 as a whole was decent.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Dire, even after accounting for seasonal quirks.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Mexico, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: A soft end to the year, but consumption likely will improve slightly in Q1.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Mexico, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: A soft Q1, and the outlook remain challenging.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Mexico, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent momentum in private consumption, but threats are rising.

U.K Datanote: U.K. Prime Minister resignation (Publication Centre)

In one line: A no-deal Brexit remains an unlikely outcome, even with a "true" Brexiteer PM.

U.K Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Resilient in the face of heightened political uncertainty.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still depressed by new testing procedures.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still excessively downbeat.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment Rate, Mexico, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: The labor market is gradually deteriorating.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Volatility caused by regulations; still trending down slowly.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Tentative signs of a pick-up in retail sales.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Too noisy to warrant concern.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment Rate, Mexico, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: A substantial improvement, but not in line with fundamentals.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Unemployment nudges higher in Q3.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: The gradual recovery of the labour market continues.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Mexico, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Resilience in private spending, but the weakness of the labour market is a risk.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. House of Commons Brexit votes (Publication Centre)

In one line: Brace for a general election and a weaker pound.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: The slow recovery of the Brazilian labor market continues.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: A solid end to 2019 for Brazil's labour market.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: The improvement continues.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Improvement continued through February, but the labour market will deteriorate soon.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Labour Costs, Germany (Publication Centre)

In one line: Germany's recession all but confirmed.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Trade, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft; blame Ireland and the Netherlands.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still a big gap between business and consumer confidence.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: A solid m/m increase; the quarter as whole should be decent.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Business and consumer confidence is diverging.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumers are defiantly optimistic, despite the Brexit saga.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising domestically-generated inflation limits the MPC's options.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Trade, Germany, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: So-so, but downside risks to the Q2 GDP headline linger.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the downward impact of lower energy prices; DGI is rising.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Demand was stuttering even before Covid-19.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downbeat consumer sentiment casts doubt over the Tories' majority hopes.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales and Manufacturing Index, Chile, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The economy is on the mend, unevenly.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Trade, Germany, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bit better in German manufacturing; the setback in exports was expected.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales and Manufacturing Index, Chile, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The economy was on the mend before the virus, but Covid-19 will hit hard.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Crying wolf, again.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: A poor finish to 2019, but we expect a modest recovery in Q1.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest increase, but an uptrend is consolidating.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Trade, Germany, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but ancient, news.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Trade, France, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust, but base effects are challenging for manufacturing in Q2.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Chile, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Poor, growth slowed rapidly in Q2.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downside surprise due to unsustainably low core goods inflation.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Chile, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stronger than expected, but threats persist.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pre-Brexit preparations providing no relief this time.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Chile, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: A solid rebound, but downside risks remain.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Chile, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: A poor first quarter for retailers.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: The inflation outlook still does not warrant lower interest rates.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: A strong Q3 and upside risks to private consumption looking forward.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: A good report; on track for another solid quarter.

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A decent report boosted by Black Friday sales and severance funds.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising "underlying" services inflation points to the MPC retaining its tightening bias.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: No case for cutting Bank Rate based on the outlook for inflation.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Trade, Germany, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The perfect storm; weak manufacturing and a crash in construction.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: The wage-price link is firmly intact; the MPC's hands are tied.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not terrible, but outlook for Q2 as a whole is grim.

EZ Datanote: Labour Costs, Eurozone, Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: EZ labour costs are accelerating.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: The modest recovery is on track, but risks remain.

LatAm Datanote: Economic Activity Index, Brazil, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, and further gains likely in coming months.

LatAm Datanote: Economic Activity Index, Brazil, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: A decent improvement, and we expect further good news ahead.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: The positive trend is petering out.

LatAm Datanote: Economic Activity Index, Brazil, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better domestic conditions offset by rising external risks.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Excellent, but clouds are gathering in some countries.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Fantastic, but also ancient news.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: A Q3 rebound in net exports underway?

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: A marginal improvement, but poor mining activity remains a drag.

LatAm Datanote: Economic Activity Index, Brazil, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery continues; risks are titling to the upside.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust; the Q2/Q3 recession call is now even more difficult to sustain.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: A decent start to the year, but the good news won't last.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: A soft end to the year, but the modest recovery continues.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stationary, rather than in outright decline.

LatAm Datanote: CPI, Mexico, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation pressures in check, allowing Banxico to cut interest rates further.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mean-reversion from last month, but claims likely are now rising a bit.

LatAm Datanote: CPI, Mexico, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core inflation is finally edging down.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Germany is not the U.S.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index and Bi-weekly CPI, Mexico, April, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Modest inflation pressures amid subpar economic activity.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surprisingly resilient.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: German unemployment is now rising; about that fiscal stimulus?

LatAm Datanote: Economic Activity Index, Brazil, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: The modest uptrend continues.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index and Unemployment, Mexico, January and February (Publication Centre)

In one line: A poor start to 2020 for Mexico, even before Covid-19.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back to reality.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty, but partly mean reversion from the previous month.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid; net exports on track for a Q4 rebound.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Mexico, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: An ugly headline, but the detail are not as horrible.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance and Labour Costs, Germany, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid start to Q4 for net trade; wage growth dipped, slightly, in Q4.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by slowing exports, but trend looks stable.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Mexico, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: A poor start to the third quarter and downside risks remain.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: A soft headline and a near-term misery looms.

LatAm Datanote: Final GDP, Mexico, Q2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing, and the outlook remains challenging due to high external risks.

LatAm Datanote: Final GDP, Mexico, Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing, and the outlook remains challenging due to high external risks.

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Moods are souring again at the start of Q4.

LatAm Datanote: GDP, Chile, Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A soft Q1, and the outlook remain challenging.

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: A welcome rebound, but investors' bogeymen remain.

LatAm Datanote: Final GDP, Mexico, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A weak end to the year, due to falling industrial activity.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Social unrest puts the economy on its knees.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soaring; probably lifted by pre-Brexit stock building in the U.K.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: A decent end to the year as the hit from the social unrest eases.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: A solid start to the year, but Q2 will be awful.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lifted by a robust export growth.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Très bien; boosted by exports of transport goods and pharmaceuticals.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: A surprising rebound in activity.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but rising external risks suggest that the recovery will stutter.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft start to the third quarter; the trade war is a huge drag.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: French net exports likely fell sharply in Q3.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Economic activity its rebounding following the social unrest.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest rebound, but the trend is improving.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Exports hit by slowdown in shipments to Asia and the rest of Europe.

LatAm Datanote: CPI, Mexico, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation is well under control, around Banxico's target.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Yikes! Jump in claims is partly a statistical quirk, but the trend is turning for the worse.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Emergency Meeting , Peru (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bold rate cut, and more to come.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru (Publication Centre)

In one line: Adopting a dovish stance as the economy fails to gather speed.

LatAm Datanote: Advance GDP, Mexico, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surprisingly resilient, but Banxico will continue cutting rates.

LatAm Datanote: BCCh Rate Decision, Chile, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rates on hold, and the statement suggests no easing in the near term.

LatAm Datanote: BCCh Rate Decision, Chile, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another hefty cut as the economy is heading for a deep recession.

LatAm Datanote: Advance GDP, Mexico, Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A soft start to the second half of the year; Banxico will continue cutting rates.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold, but the BCRP will cut rates soon.

LatAm Datanote: Advance GDP, Mexico, Q2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Avoiding a technical recession by small margin.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold, but the coronavirus is a threat.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold; and in no rush to move rates in the foreseeable future.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold; and in no rush to move rates in the foreseeable future.

LatAm Datanote: Argentina Elections (Publication Centre)

In one line: Fernández victory presages dramatic change in Argentina; but a balanced Congress gives slight room for optimism.

LatAm Datanote: BCCh Rate Decision, Chile, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: A surprise hefty rate cut; policymakers respond to the subpar recovery and trade war fears.

LatAm Datanote: Banxico Emergency Meeting, Mexico (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bold rate cut, and more will be needed, despite a cautious Board.

LatAm Datanote: BCCh Emergency Meeting (Publication Centre)

In one line: Joining the party with a bold rate cut.

LatAm Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest rate cut, and most of the Board is cautious.

LatAm Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: More rate cuts on the horizon as the economy weakens.

LatAm Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: The easing cycle will continue; the economy is weakening rapidly.

LatAm Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest rate cut, by a cautious Board.

LatAm Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold and on the sidelines in the near term due to high uncertainty.

LatAm Datanote: BCCh Rate Decision, Chile, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another hefty cut as the economy struggles, and the door is open to further stimulus.

LatAm Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold, but challenging external conditions will force BanRep to cut rates in late Q4 or Q1.

LatAm Datanote: BCCh Rate Decision, Chile, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rates on hold, due to uncertainty about inflation and the CLP.

LatAm Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold, patience persists.

LatAm Datanote: A modest mm fall, but the trend likely will stabilise soon. (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest m/m fall, but the trend likely will stabilise soon.

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Encouraging.

LatAm Datanote: CPI, Colombia, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: A downside surprise, and the underlying trend is falling, for now.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but the trend in claims is probably still rising.

LatAm Datanote: Consumer Confidence, Mexico, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumers remain gloomy.

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Horrible.

LatAm Datanote: Consumer Confidence, Mexico, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sentiment remains resilient, but that won't last.

LatAm Datanote: CPI, Colombia, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Headline up, but core down.

LatAm Datanote: CPI, Mexico, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation falls close to target, allowing Banxico to cut rates.

LatAm Datanote: CPI, Mexico, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lower energy prices push inflation down at the end of Q2.

LatAm Datanote: CPI, Mexico, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Undershooting consensus; Banxico to cut rates next week.

LatAm Datanote: CPI, Mexico, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Bad weather has pushed inflation up, temporarily.

LatAm Datanote: CPI, Mexico, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Underlying inflation pressures continue to ease.

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust.

LatAm Datanote: Bi-weekly CPI, Mexico, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation edges lower to Baxico's target, and the downtrend will continue.

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but likely still boosted by trade and Brexit deal optimism.

LatAm Datanote: Bi-weekly CPI, Mexico, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation falling rapidly as the economy comes under severe strain.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold, but ready to cut if the economic recovery falters.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Policymakers surprise markets by cutting rates.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold; playing it safe due to the PEN sell-off, but rate cuts loom.

LatAm Datanote: Bi-weekly CPI, Mexico, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disinflation will resume in Q2; core pressures are easing

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Looks great, but does it matter for the economic surveys?

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: ZEW, Germany, February

LatAm Datanote: Bi-weekly CPI, Mexico, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Underlying pressures are in check, despite the modest uptick in headline inflation.

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Upwards and onwards.

LatAm Datanote: Bi-weekly CPI, Mexico, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Underlying inflation pressures are falling, and we expect further declines across the year due to the recession.

LatAm Datanote: GDP, Chile, Q2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A solid rebound but the trade war remains a key risk.

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Steady, and still solid.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: No recession here.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: A good start to Q4; note the rebound in M1 growth.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but trend is still firm.

EZ Datanote: Mr. Draghi's Introductory Speech, Sintra (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mr. Draghi just talked himself into cutting rates before he steps down.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: M1 growth has slowed recently, but just a bit.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly headline, but the details were a bit better.

LatAm Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rate cuts are looming as the economy loses momentum.

EZ Datanote: Labour Costs, Eurozone, Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A setback within a slowly rising trend.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust, despite marginal dip in M1 growth.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Any more or this, and we'll have to upgrade our 2020 GDP growth forecasts.

EZ Datanote: Q4 GDP, EZ, Second Estimate (Publication Centre)

In one line: Saved by the decimals; the EZ economy all but stalled at the end of 2019.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing, but online sales will rebound next month.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: A poor start to the fourth quarter, due to broad-based weakness.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Horrible, but it will be revised higher.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A weak headline, but the details are not as grim.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust growth ahead of the virus disruptions.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: A good start to the year; it could come in handy for Q1 as a whole!

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing remains resilient, but downside risks looms.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty, but mostly due to crazy volatility in Germany.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim, but not representative of the trend.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation ended 2019 above the target, due mainly to the meat-price shock.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest increase, but underlying inflation is stable.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Inflation edged lower in August, leaving the door open for further interest rate cuts.

EZ Datanote: Labour Costs and Trade Balance, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Wage growth is firming in the Eurozone, but the ECB is focused elsewhere.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still overall robust.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty, but light at the end of the tunnel; we hope.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly, German manufacturing can't catch a break.

EZ Datanote: Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France (Publication Centre)

In one line: French consumers' spending was slowing before the virus-hit.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Undershooting consensus, inflation pressures are tame.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Overshooting consensus, due to Covid-19 hit?

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: A sharp fall helped by a favourable base effect; underlying pressures are tame.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bit better, but Q3 as a whole was weak.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent, but we think production slipped in December.

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disinflation resumes as the economy falters.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not terrible, but Q4 as a whole will be soft.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back to reality?

EZ Datanote: Inflation and Construction, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core inflation will fall back this month; construction jumped in Q1, but a setback looms in Q2.

EZ Datanote: Inflation and Consumers' Spending, France (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumers on track for a solid Q2; services inflation on the rebound?

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Sentiment, France, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Much better than the PMIs.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Sentiment, France, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Relief; but manufacturing is not out of the woods yet.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore; the collection period was pre-Covid-19 lockdown.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Upwards and onwards.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Sentiment, France, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid across the board; still no virus hit.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Sentiment and Advance PMIs, France, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not bad at all.

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Consumers' Spending and Q4 GDP, France (Publication Centre)

In one line: Upside risk to EZ core inflation today?

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: What strikes?

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim, but the details are more encouraging.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: A German recession edges ever closer.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Undershooting expectations, but we expect a modest rebound in Q3.

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Encouraging rebound in expectations, to too soon to cheer.

LatAm Datanote: Gross fixed investment, Mexico, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: A poor start to Q3; investment will remain a drag in the near term.

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surprisingly solid.

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: What virus?

LatAm Datanote: Gross fixed investment, Mexico, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: A weak-looking report but hit by calendar effects; capex will stabilise as uncertainty fades.

LatAm Datanote: Gross fixed investment, Mexico, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Capex is struggling; the outlook remains challenging.

EZ Datanote: Saxony Inflation, Germany, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still depressed by deflation in energy prices; the core looks robust.

LatAm Datanote: Gross fixed investment, Mexico, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: An ugly start to the fourth quarter; expect more weakness ahead.

EZ Datanote: Saxony Inflation, Germany, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Coming in hot; lifted by higher food and core inflation.

EZ Datanote: Saxony Inflation, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Falling energy inflation offset by rising goods inflation.

LatAm Datanote: Gross fixed investment, Mexico, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest upturn, but downside threats have increased recently.

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Looking strong, but the recent jump in geopolitical risk is not fully factored-in.

LatAm Datanote: Gross fixed investment and Consumer confidence, Mexico, August and October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Poor capex in Q3, and consumer confidence is deteriorating.

LatAm Datanote: GDP, Colombia, Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Resilient, but downside risks are emerging .

LatAm Datanote: GDP, Colombia, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A solid end to the year, but downside risks have increased lately.

LatAm Datanote: GDP, Colombia, Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A soft start to the year, but we expect better numbers ahead.

LatAm Datanote: GDP, Chile, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Q4 hit by the protest, 2020 will be thrashed by Covid-19

LatAm Datanote: GDP, Chile, Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust, but backward-looking; Q4 will be grim.

LatAm Datanote: GDP, First Quarter, Brazil (Publication Centre)

In one line: The first q/q fall since 2016 due to an array of domestic and external challenges.

LatAm Datanote: GDP, Fourth Quarter, Brazil (Publication Centre)

In one line: A decent end to 2019, but plunging capex and the coronavirus are threats.

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ouch.

LatAm Datanote: GDP, Third Quarter, Brazil (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumption and capex boosted GDP growth last quarter.

LatAm Datanote: GDP, Second Quarter, Brazil (Publication Centre)

In one line: A resilient economy despite many shocks.

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Dreadful.

LatAm Datanote: Gross fixed investment, Mexico, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Poor headline; investment remains a drag.

EZ Datanote: Saxony Inflation, Germany, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hot, but core inflation eased.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sluggish, but production rose in Q3.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the un-adjusted headline; production did well at the start of Q2.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Barnstorming, but a setback looms in the December report.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: A decent start to Q4 for the industrial sector.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: An ugly end to the first quarter, but output likely will stabilize in Q2.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: A mixed industrial picture; manufacturing output is weakening, but other sectors seem to be reviving.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: A soft end to the year, but the underlying trend is stabilizing.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Resilient manufacturing output offsets weakness elsewhere.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, January (Publication Centre)

A decent start to the year, but the coronavirus hit to the economy is looming.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Just a dip; Q1 was excellent overall.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty; sales fell over Q2 as a whole.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: A soft start to the quarter, but leading indicators point to a decent Q3 as a whole.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Horrible, but the consensus was always too optimistic.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: A marginal improvement in manufacturing, offset by poor mining activity.

EZ Datanote: Saxony CPI, Germany, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back to trend?

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Good industrial production numbers; the labour market is still struggling.

EZ Datanote: Saxony Inflation, Germany, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lifted by higher core and food inflation.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Early signs of stabilisation, but the rebound remains fragile.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Political uncertainty will weigh on the economy in Q4.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: A soft start to Q2, following an ugly Q1.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: A good start to the year, but the virus will be a big drag.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The modest industrial recovery continues, but Covid-19 will make things worse.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Struggling, and external conditions point to challenging times ahead.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: A strong m/m increase, but downside threats remain.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Outstanding.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Borrowing undershooting the plans; scope for modest fiscal stimulus next year.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Expect the market to continue to strengthen.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery primarily driven by lower mortgage rates.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts, Q3, New Governor Announcement (Publication Centre)

In one line: Upward revision shows GDP growth is only just below its trend.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts and Balance of Payments, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A jump in households' saving slowed the economy in Q4.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another positive housing market signal.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: More evidence of a strong pre-virus recovery.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lower mortgage rates are working their magic.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weakness reflects pre-election nerves; Covid-19, however, has re-written the post-election script.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Further evidence that the housing market already had regained momentum before the election.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stimulus from lower mortgage rates is starting to filter through.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Minutes of March 10 meeting (Publication Centre)

In one line: No qualms about easing again; look for another cut on March 26.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC meeting, March 19 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A huge QE authorisation; markets are right to welcome the news.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Credit growth is picking up; no need for even lower rates.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, November, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably still misleadingly weak.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, March, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Horrendous, and probably not reflecting the full devastation.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, January, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with Q1 GDP growth exceeding the MPC's forecast.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with GDP growth picking up this year.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Improving monetary trends suggest recession risk remains low.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Keeping faith in a pick-up in GDP growth next year.

UK Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Beset by political uncertainty; expect a rebound in Q1.

UK Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery simply reflecting lower mortgage rates; the election boost lies ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weighed down by political uncertainty.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: All was well before COVID-19, but a huge jump in borrowing lies ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. Trade, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Renewed stockpiling to blame for the larger deficit.

UK Datanote: U.K. Trade, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Trade surpluses won't be the norm.

UK Datanote: U.K. Trade, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Imports still weak, as firms continue to run down precautionary Brexit stockpiles.

UK Datanote: U.K. Trade, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Distorted by precious metals; underlying performance still poor.

US Datanote FOMC Statement (Publication Centre)

No surprises in the statement; the IOER cut is technical, not a policy change.

US Datanote Productivity and Labor Costs Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spectacular but unsustainable.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, March (Publication Centre)

In one word: Irrelevant.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spectacular, but it likely overstates the official numbers.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Likely overstates Friday's official number.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: From huge undershoot to modest overshoot?

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with a post-election recovery in activity and prices.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surveyors expect prices to plunge, though lasting damage isn't inevitable.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Flagging even before the virus hit.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Shockingly weak, leaving the MPC's January meeting now finely balanced.

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still stuck at a depressed level.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Full-year borrowing remains on course to undershoot the OBR's forecast.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Snapping back after political-related weakness in Q4.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably distorted by the exclusion of Black Friday, despite the statisticians' best efforts.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Full steam ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong, at least before the virus hit.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: House price gains are set to strengthen.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, February, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Cut-off for the survey too early to give a steer on the virus hit to domestic demand.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, December, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with an immediate pick-up in activity after the election.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Marginal decline a prelude to a big drop ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Driven lower by the volatile airline fares and hotels components; expect a rebound in Q1.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably understating the coronavirus hit.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another positive sign, though the survey is not a precise guide to the PMI.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising services inflation strengthens the case against a rate cut.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Low inflation entirely due to non-core components.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Small fall should not bring any comfort.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovering, albeit more tentatively than other survey indicators.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Confidence continuing to recover.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with negligible GDP growth in Q4.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with falling manufacturing output and a small drop in the PMI.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ending the year on a very weak note.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Brace for a year-long slump in sales.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: A recovery should emerge soon.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The post-election recovery in confidence should support car sales soon.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovering consumer confidence should stabilise car sales in 2020.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still hit be regulatory changes; demand should stabilise in 2020.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mixed messages.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mildly encouraging, though the survey has stopped being a bellwether.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: A pre-shutdown snapshot; unprecedented falls in sales lie ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Signs of moderate growth unlikely to tip the balance on the MPC.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still consistent with a consumer recovery in Q1.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Indicative of confidence recovering, if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed quickly.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still excessively depressed by political uncertainty.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Collapsing, despite no mandatory closures of construction sites.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: A big step in the right direction.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The election has given housebuilding a new lease of life.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by election-related indecision in the public sector; expect a recovery 2020.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still weighed down by Brexit uncertainty, but next year should be better.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, December, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Year-end struggles should give way to stabilisation in Q1.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, November, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Destocking is driving the renewed slowdown.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, March, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Understating the slump in production now underway.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, January, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: A glimmer of light between the storm clouds.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, February, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Supply chain disruptions to depress output in the spring.

UK Datanote: U.K. General Election Result (Publication Centre)

In one line: The economy now has a brief window to recover, before the end-2020 Brexit deadline looms large.

UK Datanote: U.K. General Election Exit Poll (Publication Centre)

In one line: Error would have to be unprecedented for the Tories not to win a majority.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with falling GDP, though it has been too downbeat repeatedly this year.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Record low level signals a very deep recession.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong enough for the MPC to keep rates on hold next week.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Reassuringly solid, given virus and weather headwinds.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP & Trade, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: No momentum at all before the virus.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, December & Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hampered by political uncertainty; clear scope for a Q1 rebound.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downside surprise all due to erratic construction output; the services sector still is coping well.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: The MPC will see through November's weak print.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still stagnant after the election, despite the recovery in business confidence.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Could have been worse. Will be worse

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Wild.

US Datanote: U.S. International Trade, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The post-tariff plunge in imports is starting to reverse.

US Datanote: U.S. International Trade and Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one: Both headlines are misleading.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: GM drives up production; core manufacturing is stagnant.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing is still stagnating.

US Datanote: U.S. International Trade, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not sustainable.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The calm before the storm.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not as good as the headlines.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Headline weakness hides employment rebound, but is it real?

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ouch. The manufacturing recession continues.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Good news, but it won't last.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: More ancient history.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent core manufacturing hidden by weather-driven utility plunge.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Both volumes and prices have further to rise.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bit disappointing, but expect rising sales over the next few months.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, November (Publication Centre)

In one word: Astonishing.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, March (Publication Centre)

Grim, but this is only the start.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, before the virus.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: The rebound from the tax hit continues, fitfully.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A sustained surge is underway.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but not for much longer.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spectacular but clearly unsustainable.

US Datanote: U.S. GDP, Q4 advance (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't worry about the consumption slowdown; will rebound in Q1.

US Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back to trend.

US Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Previously unimaginable.

US Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices and Jobless Claims, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Underlying PPI trends aren't as weak as Nov headlines; claims hit holdiay seasonal noise.

US Datanote: U.S. PPI and Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core PPI inflation will soon plummet; jobless claims will rise.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spending growth slowing in Q4, but it's only a correction.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spending is better than it looks, but sustainability depends on the U.S. not suffering a major coronavirus outbreak.

US Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, December and Empire State Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: No overall PPI threat, but airline fares jump will lift the core PCE deflator.

US Datanote: U.S. Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Q4 and Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Productivity growth has peaked; expect a clear H1 slowdown.

FINANCIAL TIMES - Jobs data give Bank of England leverage to keep rates low (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. employment

US Datanote: Weekly Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Worse--an order of magnitude worse--to come.

US Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't worry about the soft control number.

US Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid Dec but downward revisions will hit Q4 GDP estimates.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid income and spending, and rising core PCE inflation before the virus. But...

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, December & ECI, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumption and core PCE inflation will both rebound in Q1.

US Datanote: U.S. NAHB and JOLTS (Publication Centre)

In one line: Homebuilders are becoming nervous.

US Datanote: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, January (prelim.) (Publication Centre)

In one line: Thank the S&P.

US Datanote: U.S. Markit PMIs, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Awful, especially in services, with worse to come.

US Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims, March Final Week (Publication Centre)

In one line: No words for this.

US Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales (Publication Centre)

In one line: A correction; the trend is rising and new cycle highs are coming.

US Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boosted by mild winter weather, but the underlying trend is rising strongly too.

US Datanote: U.S. Pending Home Sales, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing was on a tear before the virus.

US Datanote: U.S. Pending home sales, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Noise not signal; the housing market is strengthening.

US Datanote: U.S. NFIB Small Business Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing, but not a change in the trend.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Unsustainable, but the trend is still pretty strong.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pre-virus, the labor market was strong, if weather-assisted. Now, trouble is coming, fast.

US Datanote: Jobless Claims, 9th April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hideous. Expect a clear drop next week.

US Datanote: ISM Non-manufacturing, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Before the deluge, everything was dry.

US Datanote: ISM Non-manufacturing Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: The consensus beat doesn't matter; next month will be much worse.

US Datanote: ISM Non-manufacturing Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The hit from tariffs on consumer goods has gone, mostly.

US Datanote: Jobless Claims, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stable, for now.

US Datanote: Jobless claims, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Nothing to worry about here; the trend might even be falling again.

US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: News from another planet.

US Datanote: NAHB Homebuilder Survey (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing is the hottest part of the whole economy.

US Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, January (prelim.) and JOLTS, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sentiment is solid, but job openings are softening.

US Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, December (preliminary) (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lifted by the stock market.

US Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Bouncing along the bottom; no real recovery in sight.

US Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Really, it's much worse than it looks.

US Datanote: Empire State Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still soft, but expect a bounce next month from the Phase One trade deal.

US Datanote: Durable Goods Orders, October and Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: The jump in capex orders is welcome but impossible to square with surveys; expect a correction.

US Datanote: Durable Goods Orders, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The headline jump is noise, but so--we hope--is the drop in core capital goods orders.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but still weak.

US Datanote: Fed Announces New Measures (Publication Centre)

In one line: Whatever it takes.

US Datanote: Fed Cuts Rates 50bp (Publication Centre)

In one line: More coming.

US Datanote: FOMC Statement and SEP (Publication Centre)

In one line: Fed holds meeting; no-one hurt.

US Datanote: FOMC Minutes, December 11 (Publication Centre)

In one line: We aren't going to do anything, unless things change materially.

US Datanote: FOMC Announcement, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: As you were, mostly.

US Datanote: Fed Cuts to Zero, $700B QE (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great news, but not enough on its own.

US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising stock prices lift small business sentiment; labor market still tight.

US Datanote: NFIB Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong almost everywhere.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core inflation is stable for now, but will rise in H1.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core inflation was stable--maybe nudging up a bit--before the virus. Expect it to slow over the next few months.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still very solid overall, but auto buying plans weak.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still solid, but vulnerable to the drop in stock price and virus fears.

US Datanote: U.S. CPI, December (Publication Centre)

In one word: Ignorable.

US Datanote: U.S. CPI, January and Weekly Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rents and heathcare lift the core; they are the key risks for 2020.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Meh. But the trend is *much* better than surveys suggest.

US Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing is back in recession.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, January + GDP revisions + Jobless claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: The calm before virus storm.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Before the deluge, the trend in core orders was flat.

US Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boeing, probably.

US Datanote: U.S. Advance Trade in Goods (Publication Centre)

In one line: The first step towards mean reversion; the deficit will rise further in Q1.

US Datanote: Philadelphia Fed, November & Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Philly Fed details weaker than the headline, but still strong; Claims *might* be turning up.

US Datanote: Philadelphia Fed, December and Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: No signs of manufacturing rebound here.

US Datanote: Personal Income and Spending, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the drop in income, but the softening in spending growth is real.

US Datanote: Pending Home Sales, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Reversal of December's seasonally-afflicted drop; the trend is rising.

US Datanote: Philly Fed, January, Weekly jobless claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Philly details much less spectacular than the headline; jobless claims back to lows.

US Datanote: QE4 begins (Publication Centre)

In one line: QE4

US Datanote: U.S. Advance International Trade in Goods, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: The plunge in the deficit is over, but exporters still under pressure.

US Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, and no rebound likely near-term.

US Datanote: Retail Sales, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Is the invincible consumer wobbling? Too soon to be sure, but Q4 looking soft.

UK Datanote: U.K. Budget (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not holding back.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Depressed by its exclusion of Black Friday this year.

U.S. Datanote ADP Employment, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Overstates the trend, but also raises the chance of a big official print Friday .

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising import prices point to upside risk to the MPC's new inflation forecast.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The inventory-related slump in export demand nearly is over; industrial production will bounce back in the summer.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surprise surplus due to erratic goods; don't expect a trade boost to materialise soon.

U.S. Datanote: ADP Employment, August & Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but it won't last.

U.S. Datanote: ADP Employment, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: The trend is slowing, but September payrolls likely to be better than August's.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Much better, but still soft, and downside risks ahead.

U.S. Datanote: Advance Trade, August and Jobless Claims and GDP, Q2 third estimate (Publication Centre)

In one line: The calm before the export storm?

U.S. Datanote: Advance Trade in Goods, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Exports softening broadly.

U.S. Datanote: Advance goods trade, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: The advance goods deficit rose to $71.4B in April from $70.9B in March, better than the consensus, $73.0B.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Small deficits reflect volatility, not an emerging boost from the weaker pound.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: No sign of stockpiling ahead of the October deadline.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another solid performance in Q3.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sluggish, but not alarming.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: May's drop simply reflects usual volatility; the underlying trend remains strong.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: The old cliché still applies - never write off the U.K. consumer.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Depressed, but not knocked out, by Brexit uncertainty.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still pointing to a recovery in demand.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back to normal.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Supply shortages and falling mortgage rates are holding up prices.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Reports of falling buyer enquiries are hard to reconcile with sharply lower mortgage rates.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Returning to growth.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim; trade war and Boeing woes to blame.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible.

U.S. Datanote: ISM Non-manufacturing, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible.

U.S. Datanote: ISM Manufacturing, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Bottoming, but still very weak.

U.S. Datanote: ISM Manufacturing, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing but a rebound is coming.

U.S. Datanote: Industrial Production, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing is enduring a mild recession, but it probably won't deepen much further.

U.S. Datanote: ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Further declines unlikely, but signals slower payroll gains

U.S. Datanote: Jobless Claims, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Policy uncertainty is not lifting layoffs.

U.S. Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The consumer is just fine; recent softness in spending is temporary.

U.S. Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, August preliminary (Publication Centre)

In one line: Trade wars have consequences.

U.S. Datanote: Jobless Claims, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: A correction; the trend is stable, for now.

U.S. Datanote: Jobless Claims, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: The trend is low and stable; all the payroll slowdown is due to reduced hiring activity.

U.S. Datanote: FOMC Statement, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Split decision guarantees nothing; trade is the key.

U.S. Datanote: FOMC Minutes, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Split, but move doves than hawks and few tariff pass-through fears.

U.S. Datanote: Employment Costs Index, Q3 and Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Nothing to lose sleep over.

U.S. Datanote: Empire State Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Awful but likely just a temporary response to the Mexico tariff fiasco.

U.S. Datanote: Consumer Confidence, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mexico tariff fears hit sentiment and raised inflation expectations; expect a reversal.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Likely bottoming, but no real recovery in sight.

U.S. Datanote: Employment, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid; AHE hit be calendar quirks and will rebound.

U.S. Datanote: Fed Chair Powell Monetary Policy Testimony (Publication Centre)

In one line: No pushback on the July ease, but it's still a bad idea.

U.S. Datanote: FOMC Minutes, April 30 May 1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Patience persists.

U.S. Datanote: FOMC Announcement, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pause signalled; further easing requires weaker growth.

U.S. Datanote: Federal Reserve Announcement (Publication Centre)

In one line: Uncertainty reigns.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boosted by Amazon Prime Day, but the underlying trend is solid.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: No cause for alarm.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: More evidence of momentum in the household sector.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: The survey's poor track record recently means its recession signal should not be believed.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not much of a Brexit deal bounce.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Tentatively moving in the right direction.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with steady, if unspectacular, GDP growth.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with the economy retaining momentum ahead of the Brexit deadline.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Households showing little sign of pre-Brexit jitters.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lower mortgage rates are limiting the damage from Brexit uncertainty.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Highlighting scope for stronger growth in households' spending ahead.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Reassuringly steady growth in broad money and borrowing.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Modest revival weakens the case for fresh monetary stimulus.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't take the PMI's recession signal literally.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: The downturn is accelerating; Brexit uncertainty still to blame.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still struggling, but a recovery in 2020 is in sight.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Brexit uncertainty is still hurting, but a boost from lower borrowing costs is coming.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Work is continuing to dry up as no-deal Brexit risk mounts.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pre-Brexit preparations offering little support, so far

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably this year's weakest point.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Renewed stockpiling provides some near-term relief.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Renewed stockpiling provides fleeting relief from the downturn.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: On course to reverse the Q1 boost.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: No longer outperforming now the stockpiling boost has fully worn off.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lending set to remain resilient in the second half of this year.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Falling mortgage rates are offsetting disruption caused by political uncertainty.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Near-flat trend in prices unlikely to improve soon.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Treading water, but falling mortgage rates will help soon.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Close to the nadir.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: No longer slowing; lower mortgage rates are helping.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Falling mortgage rates are bolstering prices.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Too soon to take fright from the slowdown in tax receipts.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still scope for fiscal stimulus, provided the current rules are scrapped.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: No cause for alarm.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty, though volatility in interest payments has distorted the picture.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Looser fiscal targets will have to be adopted in response to methodological changes and sluggish growth in tax revenues.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Flat for six months, but modest growth likely ahead.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still broadly flat, as Brexit risk offsets support from solid wage growth.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision, Minutes and Monetary Policy Report, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: New forecasts reveal a slight near-term easing bias.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision, Minutes and Inflation Report, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Maintaining its composure; tightening still likely, if no-deal is averted.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision and Minutes, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: The MPC has lost its confidence in the outlook, but isn't close to pre-emptive easing.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Acknowledging the growing downside risks, but not changing course.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. National Accounts, Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumers are showing little anxiety in the run-up to Brexit.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. National Accounts, Q2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Revisions to the saving ratio leave households looking better placed to weather a future storm.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still flat, but lower mortgage rates point to gains ahead.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still flat, but the trend should improve modestly later this year.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still essentially flat, but the impending fall in mortgage rates will help.

U.S. Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, November Prelim (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumers are mostly still quite happy, but no sustained improvement is likely.

U.S. Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, October preliminary (Publication Centre)

In one line: Holding up, but for how much longer?

U.S. Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weak and still falling, but not in meltdown.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better but still weak; capex uptick is very welcome.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Small business owners responding to the Jan-Apr stock market rally with the usual lag.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Make the most of this; it won't last.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Pending Home Sales, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: A correction; the trend is rising

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core PCE deflator back on track; Q2 consumption headed for 3%.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spending growth is set to slow in Q4.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumption rocketing; core PCE deflator returning to target on a quarterly annualized basis.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumption on track for 3-to-3.5% in Q2; core inflation mean-reverting.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spending growth is slowing; expect hefty Q3 GDP forecast markdowns.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Small firms don't like the trade war.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: The trend in sales is rising, and inventory is falling.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not as good as it looks.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim. Thank the trade war, which means no improvement is likely anytime soon.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim; no sign of hitting bottom despite better regional surveys.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. International Trade, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: The calm before the storm.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing, October and JOLTS, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but still much lower than it should be, thanks to the trade war.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: The trend remains stable and very low.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilder Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: The one bright spot in the economy shines again.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilder Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, and scope for further gains.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilder Index, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Tariff fears strike again?

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Claims noise likely insignificant; hefty upward revisions to Q1 capex.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Philadelphia Fed survey, Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Philly surge looks great, but it's not definitive.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by the Mexico tariff debacle; next month will be better.

U.S. Datanote: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Confidence high and stable; inflation expectations steady.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but quite likely to be revised upwards.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, October and Empire State Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core sales growth is slowing after unsustainable strength.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The consumer is firmly back on track; Q1's softness was misleading.

U.S. Datanote: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, June (p) (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sentiment still very elevated; inflation expectations dip.

UK Datanote MPC Decision, Minutes & Inflation Report, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still committed to rate hikes, but not willing to pull the trigger just yet.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovering pre-virus.

UK Datanote: U.K. BoE Stimulus Measures (Publication Centre)

In one line: Going big and early.

UK Datanote: MPC Decision and Minutes, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Nothing new, but not out of ammo either.

UK Datanote: Markit CIPS Construction Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Overall stagnation masks sub-sector divergence.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: A 4% quarter for consumers' spending does not make a compelling case for easier money.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spectacular, thanks in large part to the Amazon Prime event.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices and Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Healthcare inflation is accelerating; will it be sustained?

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices (Publication Centre)

In one line: Noisy components depress the headlines, but hospital prices are accelerating.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Philly details are much stronger than the headline.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hugely overstating the national manufacturing picture.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core services prices jump, but it's noise not signal.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Upside inflation risks are elsewhere.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core sales have surged in Q3, but expect a much weaker Q4.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Productivity and Unit Labor Costs (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ouch, but not as bad as it looks.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Goods inflation falling; some signs of upward pressure in services.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. International Trade, Jobless Claims, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Trade will be a small drag on Q2 GDP growth.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. International Advance Trade in Goods, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Tariff effects held the deficit down; it will rebound sharply in Q4.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Tariffs, labor costs, and tight rental home supply pushing up core inflation, plus some noise.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not yet an accelerating trend, but labor cost and tariff pressures are visible.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, August & Weekly Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Looks bad, but the trend is not--yet--running at 0.3% per month.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, October and Pending Home Sales, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Expectations are softening as the trade war continues, but housing is the bright spot.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Used car prices a drag yet again, but they'll stop falling soon.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, September & Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Expect a rebound in the October core; too late to prevent a Fed easing this month.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: No bottom yet for core orders.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core orders soft, but likely to be even softer in Q4.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but the outlook is for a much worse numbers in Q4 and beyond.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Advance Goods Trade, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Capex orders and trade are net neutral for Q2 GDP estimates.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence & Richmond Fed, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Both better than expected, but downside risk is not over.

U.S. Datanote: Pending Home Sales, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing, but the trend is still rising.

U.S. Datanote: New Home Sales, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, and new highs likely over the next few months.

U.S. Datanote: New Home Sales, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Undershoot compared to mortgage demand; expect a rebound.

U.S. Datanote: NAHB Homebuilder Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Treading water, but should strengthen markedly soon.

U.S. Datanote: Richmond Fed Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Philly Fed soars; Empire State steady; Richmond Fed tanks; which to believe?

U.S. Datanote: Richmond Fed Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Noisy, but the trend seems to have levelled off; signals upside potential for October ISM.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Likely overstating the official number, which will be hit by the GM strike.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Technical factors mean June official payrolls likely will be stronger than ADP

U.S. Datanote: U.S NFIB Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Selling prices surge after tariffs on Chinese imports rise.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surging core capex orders suggest non-manufacturing firms are spending.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: A welcome partial rebound, but a real recovery is unlikely before the fall.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Headlines are misleading; core activity stable.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the headline; what matters is the emerging rising trend in single-family permits.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Headlines flattered massively by multi-family surge, but core single-family numbers decent too.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. GDP, Q3 first estimate (Publication Centre)

In one line: Could have been worse. Q4 probably will be.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Homebuilders still wary, but construction activity will rise over the summer.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong, and further gains coming.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Depressed by the GM strike, but the underlying picture is grim too, and still deteriorating.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Wrecked by the GM strike, but the underlying picture is soft too.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Looks great but it won't last.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the headline declines; core picture is improving.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: The trend is rising, despite the September dip; new cycle highs likely by year-end.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery continues; further gains ahead.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Employment, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Good, but the future is much darker.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Employment, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not enough alone to stop the Fed easing this month.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Employment, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but subordinate to politics.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Employment, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ominous, in more ways than one.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Employment, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Job growth is set to slow much further.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing, but the trend is turning higher.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Moving sideways, but not for much longer; expect a strong second half.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Encouraging.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: A decent month, but much better to come later in the year.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: The downturn is deepening, through a rapid rebound will emerge if no-deal Brexit risk subsides.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Covid-19 could soon push Korea's current account surplus into the red.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour market remains tight but will face persistent slackening from here. Caixin manufacturing on a tear. In the end, CPI deflation in Korea lasted just one month. October probably was the y/y trough in Korea's export slump. Business sentiment in Korea is recovering... albeit only slowly.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

April wasn't so bad for Korean exports, which are starting to bottom out in real terms

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation reflect pre-virus state of play. China's CPI inflation spikes due to holiday effects. Japan's current account to be damaged by virus

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Expect Chinese PPI deflation in the second half. China's CPI inflation faces non-core cross currents; services inflation still slowing. Unemployment in Korea held steady in June; the BoK will be chuffed about improving job growth. PPI deflation in Japan will persist until the end of the year.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's PPI back in deflation until fall. China's February CPI inflation was a battle between food and services. M2 growth in Japan was due a further uptick, given the perkier trends at the margin. Favourable base effects flattered Japanese machine tool orders in February.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus rejoins previous uptrend. China's FX reserves; strong valuations boost outweighs sales. Japan's Q1 GDP gets an upgrade, at the expense of Q2. Japan's current account surplus.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Tankan reinforces our impression of a nasty Q2. China's manufacturing PMIs show why the authorities are eager for a trade deal. China's non-manufacturing sector holds steady for now. Korean exports disappointed in June, but this probably is as bad as it will get. Ignore Korea's volatile PMI readings... sentiment is improving gradually.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

PBoC holding still in the wake of Fed rate cut. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was due a bounce. Inflation in Korea will soon take another nosedive, due largely to unfavourable non-core base effects. Korea's export slump turned less bad in July. Korea's two main manufacturing surveys aren't talking to each other.

Asia Datanote: PBoC reverse-repo rate cut (Publication Centre)

In one line: A given, following the MLF cut earlier this month

ASIA Datanote: PBoC reverse repo rate, China (Publication Centre)

In one line: PBoC lowers rates, and signals more to come, potentially going beyond rate reductions

Asia Datanote: PBoC RRR cut (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not so much retaliation as housekeeping that the PBoC put off until now.

Asia Datanote: PBoC RRR Cut, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: PBoC gives RRR cut reward to banks that tow the line

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

The Tankan survey reinforces our conviction in a c.2% y/y Q1 contraction in Japanese GDP. Caixin suggests March was as bad as February... that's bad. Ignore the headline, Korean exports rebounded strongly in March, salvaging Q1. Korean business sentiment is sinking to GFC territory.

Asia Datanote: PBoC, BoJ and BoK Emergency Meetings (Publication Centre)

In one line: Asian central banks join global onslaught against Covid-19... to varying degrees

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage picture has turned ugly for workers, even accounting for sampling distortions. China's current account surplus increase is hard to fathom.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's machinery orders are set to stay weak. Japan's PPI deflation likely just troughed.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI set for another bout of deflation

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's firms aren't passing on tax hikes after all. China takes full advantage of previous oil price declines. Japan's core machine orders better than expected, but that won't help Q2. Japan is heading for a spell of sustained PPI deflation in H2. Better May jobs report will help to keep any BoK rate cuts at bay.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's M2 growth is going nowhere fast. Japanese machine tool orders suggest some stabilisation in global activity.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index remains below trend despite looming tax hike

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Positives in the Tankan survey should be taken with a pinch of salt.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index shows Q2 services strength was merely an April leap. Japan's PPI is slated for more deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's monetary and credit trends were looking better, but now stand to be damaged by... the virus scare. Virus hit still to come for Japanese machine tool orders? Korea's jobless rate is back to its pre-August one-off plunge.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Core machine orders hack a hole in the notion of resilient Japanese domestic demand

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index still has further to fall

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Big gains in the size of the labour force continue to flatter Korea's unemployment rate. Japan's exit from PPI deflation will be followed by only modest inflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's machine tool orders remain nasty. Japan's M2 growth shows first signs of looming tax hike.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Covid-19 efforts in Korea, plus Q1 front-loading of jobs budget, result in February surprise.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

August plunge in Korean unemployment is unsustainable, but should effectively rule out another BoK cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's M2 growth stabilises but the near three year downtrend leaves GDP growth looking exposed

ASIA Datanote: PBoC Reserve Requirement Ratio (Publication Centre)

In one line: PBoC follows through on RRR cut, as post-lockdown bounce shows signs of disappointing

ASIA Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, March, China (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consensus-beating print merely underscores how bad February was; the economy isn't out of the woods

Asia Datanote: China PPI, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: PPI back in deflation until the fall

Asia Datanote: China Current Account, Q2 (Publication Centre)

Capital outflow pressure is slowly rebuilding.

Asia Datanote: Current account, China, Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Domestic weakness rebuilds China's current account surplus.

ASIA Datanote: Exports, March, Korea (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the headline, Korean exports rebounded strongly in March, salvaging Q1

Asia Datanote: FX reserves, China, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Phase One trade deal takes pressure off the PBoC to defend the RMB.

ASIA Datanote: Flash Jibun Bank PMIs, March, Japan (Publication Centre)

Echoes of the global financial crisis and the 2011 tsunami in Japan's manufacturing PMI

ASIA Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, March, China (Publication Centre)

In one line: Caixin suggests March was as bad as February... that's bad

Asia Datanote: BoK emergency meeting (Publication Centre)

In one line: BoK relying on fiscal stimulus.

9 Dec. 2014 - NFIB Says Wage Pressure is Rising: ECI Data Seem to Agree (Publication Centre)

We argued in the Monitor yesterday that the NFIB survey's hiring intentions number is the best guide to the trend in payroll growth a few months ahead. But today's November NFIB report will bring no new information on job growth because the key labor market elements of the survey have already been released.

9 August 2018 June GDP Data to Show Economy has Little Underlying Momentum (Publication Centre)

Investors with long sterling positions should not pin their hopes on Friday's GDP report to reverse some of the losses endured over the last week.

9 Feb. 2015 Labor Data Forcing the Fed Into a Corner - (Publication Centre)

It's always easy to find reasons to doubt single monthly observations of any economic time series, but our first chart makes it very clear that the labor market has strengthened markedly over the past few months. The underlying trend rate of growth in private payrolls is now above 300K for the first time in exactly 20 years, and we seen no reason to expect much change over the next few months.

9 Sept. 2015 Ignore Swings in Random Labor Force Data: Focus on Job Gains (Publication Centre)

We read after the employment report that the drop in the unemployment rate was somehow not significant, because it was due in p art to a reported 41K drop in the size of the labor force, completing a 404K cumulative contraction over the three months to August. In our view, though, analysts need to take a broader approach to the picture painted by the household survey, which is much more volatile and less reliable than the payroll survey over short periods.

Asia Datanote: BoJ press conference, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: We anticipate a curve-steepening move in October, combined with some sugar coating.

Asia Datanote PBoC RRR cut (Publication Centre)

In one line: PBoC tops up previous easing measures, and provides clarity on RRR policy intentions for the remainder of the year.

Asia Datanote: FX reserves, China, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Earth to Trump, the PBoC isn't devaluing the yuan

Asia Datanote: FX reserves, China, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Increase reflects valuation effects; China happy to see RMB appreciation.

Asia Datanote: Money and Credit, China, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't count out a likely last-minute PBoC cut before the end of the year

Asia Datanote: Money and credit, China, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Looks like pre-virus trends are still dominating; remember the Phase One trade deal confidence boost?

Asia Datanote: Money and credit, China, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: That's a bit better, but a rate cut remains more likely than not.

Asia Datanote: Money and credit, July, China (Publication Centre)

Easing isn't going exactly to plan... a trade deal would really help

Asia Datanote: Nationwide Consumer Prices, Japan, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Deflation in Japan is looming, due to the collapse in oil prices

Asia Datanote: Money and credit, May, China (Publication Centre)

In one line: Confidence to borrow is lacking, but M1 growth pick-up is a welcome sign.

Asia Datanote: Money and credit, China, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Reassuring to some extent, but the PBoC has its work cut out for it

Asia Datanote: Money and Credit, China, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: That's a bit better, but still no room for PBoC complacency

Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, FAI, May, China (Publication Centre)

In one line: Some improvement in retails sales, which now face renewed headwinds; infrastructure growth driver sputters.

Asia Datanote: FX reserves, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Gains in fixed income holding valuations rather than an attempt to depreciate the currency.

Asia Datanote: Loan Prime Rate, March, China (Publication Centre)

In one line: Chinese banks send a message - no rate corridor cut, no LPR reduction

Asia Datanote: Machine Tool Orders, Japan, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still no recovery.

Asia Datanote: Money and Credit, China, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: A rate cut is needed.

Asia Datanote: Machine tool orders, Japan, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Machine tool orders feeling for the floor

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI inflation probably just peaked

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Don't get too excited on Japanese domestic demand just yet

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's LPR drop tells us moral suasion is in full swing. PPI inflation in Korea has peaked, for now.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation has troughed; Japan's budget forecasts for next year are on the rosy side; China's LPR stability reflects precarious banking sector; Korea should make a complete exit from PPI deflation this month

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Unchanged LPR suggests continued need for easing.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ keeps it promises vague. Japan's April is turning out quite nicely. PPI inflation in Korea slipped in May, and is heading for deflation in Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q1 GDP number leaves sales tax delay on the table

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese banks send a message: no rate corridor cut, no LPR reduction, PPI deflation in Korea in Q2 seems inevitable

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

PBoC furthers efforts to push down real economy rates, signals more to come.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs remain in the downdraft

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Both China and U.S. look for good will on opposite side and find none; political and economic constraints will soon kick in. BoJ QE remains neutralised by negative yields

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's government is sucking out more private funds than it is pumping in. Weak oil prices will continue to pull down Korean inflation in the coming months.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ does what it can to avoid more deeply negative yields. Korean inflation should peak this month

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

China PMI chimes with our GDP downgrade last week. China's non-manufacturing PMI weakest on construction. Japan's MoF capex numbers point to Q4 GDP downgrade. Ignore the consensus-beating headline, Korean exports were abysmal in February, calendar effects aside. The virus now has infected Korea's PMI; expect business surveys to get a lot worse.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

October monetary base growth uptick attributable to shifts on the liabilities side; tapering continues.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korean inflation surprises to the upside in April. Manufacturing surveys in Korea are turning up.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's rate corridor cut was enough to bring down the LPR

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korean exports show no signs of additional pain from Japan's trade salvo. PPI deflation takes hold in Korea.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade balance continues to struggle with oil gains and post-tax hike recovery. Activity index shows downside risks to Q4 GDP.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan is creeping towards CPI deflation, but it should just about avoid it in Q4.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

An encouraging 20-day export print from Korea, as China plays catch-up

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Trade tensions weigh on Japan's PMI

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Non-core items drive Japan's CPI inflation higher, with energy also indirectly pushing up core inflation. Sino-U.S. Phase One trade deal gives Japan's manufacturing PMI a boost. Japan's services PMI levels look unsustainable.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Ignore the nasty 20-day print... Korea's export slump has bottomed out

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Non-core items outweigh government measures in Japan's October CPI. Ignore the minor rebound in Japan's manufacturing PMI; the trend remains very weak. The post-tax drop and rebound in Japan's services PMI isn't as sharp, but Q4 looks vulnerable to a painful GDP hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's adjusted trade balance will remain in the red for now

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ's growth upgrade for fiscal 2020 is on the ambitious side, to say the least. Lunar New Year noise hit Korea's 20-day export print for January. Korea completes its exit from a brief and shallow spell of PPI deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Further weakness to come for Japan's manufacturing PMI. First services hit from the coronavirus is damning. Japan's all-industry activity index suggests the 2019 tax hike was as bad as 2014. A drop in food inflation was enough to offset lagged oil pressures in Japan's January CPI. Ignore the headline; the coronavirus is now hurting Korean exports.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's PMI hit by renewed trade wars, while domestic demand shows signs of slowing. The fledgling recovery in Korean exports lost steam in June.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

The renewed trade war is unfortunate timing, as Korea exports are stabilising at the margins. Revised index shows that Korean PPI inflation hasn't been missing this year.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Korea's consensus-beating preliminary Q4 GDP print is susceptible to a downgrade

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash PMIs for August point to short-term gain and long-term pain. Construction is starting to show signs of peaking.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ signals a package is coming in October. Waning construction tarnishes July's all-industry activity report. No PBoC move, for now, but it's coming.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

CPI deflation in Japan is looming, due to the collapse in global oil prices. January will be as good as it gets for Japan's all-industry activity index

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Our caution over China's March industrial production spike was justified. Chinese retail sales growth hits lows. Chinese FAI growth suggests private sector policy loosening isn't working. Japan's M2 growth upturn is a welcome break, but needs to be sustained. Korean unemployment jumps in April, showing the limits of the government's hiring spree.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Job losses in the over-60 group pull Korea's unemployment rate higher in December. Japanese M2 growth holds steady in December. Still no clear signs of a recovery in machine tool orders in Japan.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Easing of curbs so far won't slow property decline

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

PPI deflation should soon trough. Chinese food inflation takes off. Japan's tertiary index points to strong Q3 GDP growth.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's machinery orders boosted by one-off transportation spike. Japanese PPI ticks higher on commodities. China's new home price rises should remain on the tepid side for now .

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Judgement pending on Chinese industrial production. Chinese retail sales buoyed by inflation. Chinese FAI growth stable through Q4; local government spending better managed this year. China's housing market still not reached a bottom. Japan's tertiary index plunge is more tax hike than typhoon. Japan's PMIs underline damage from tax hike.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's homes market faces fundamental headwinds.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Signs of stabilisation in Chinese trade?

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Evidence continues to build that Korea's August unemployment plunge was a fluke. October sales tax hike in Japan opens the door for a quicker exit from PPI deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's PMI had suggested an upside surprise, but now points firmly down

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Mr. Trump's partial U-turn on September tariffs shows some semblance of an understanding of reality...that's a good thing. China's industrial production crushes June hopes of a swift recovery. Chinese consumers struggle. Chinese FAI: the infrastructure industry growth slowdown is especially worrying. Japan's strong core machine orders rebound in June probably faded in recent weeks. Korea's jobless rate will soon creep back up after remaining steady in July.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index rounds out a dismal Q4

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus deterioration not as bad as official stats suggest, but more to come

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese imports ride high on tech and Phase One trade deal. Risks continue to build in Japan's financial account

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Mar 2020 part 1 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ is doing everything within its power to cushion the virus blow. The PBoC is driving down market rates without a formal corridor cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Mar 2020 part 3 (Publication Centre)

Japan's capex signals were picking up before the virus hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 18 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's housing recovery faces headwinds.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 18 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

More evidence of the damage from the tax hike.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 18 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Weak oil prices and flagging domestic demand reduces Japan's trade deficit in August.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's new Loan Prime Rate amounts to a rate cut, but supply-side banking strains limit its efficacy. Chinese slowdown and pre-tax front-loading keeps Japan's trade balance in deficit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade balance damaged by export weakness and previous oil price gains.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ focuses on the positives, keeping the door open to increasing flexibility.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's house price rises should continue slowing

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index underlines that Q4 was catch-up growth...Q1 is payback

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Don't expect the BoK to follow the BoJ's unorthodoxy in the foreseeable future. The upward correction in Korean unemployment has much more room to run.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation in Japan likely has peaked... expect steeper drops in coming months. China's property recovery is spreading to more cities.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's industrial production growth downtrend worsens. China's retail sales dragged down by autos but boosted as people spend more at home. China's fixed asset investment growth slows despite greater support from infrastructure.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP plunge: damning across the board, though with some modest potential for upward revision. China's rate cut was mainly a housekeeping move. China's housing market starts to feel the pinch from the virus.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Supply hit slams Japan; demand hit just beginning.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Steady Q4 GDP growth in China masks respectable q/q rebound. Signs of recovery in China's industrial complex, but for how long? China's households continue to struggle. China's FAI growth shows rebuilding confidence around the Phase One deal. Japan's November tertiary index suggests October plunge was more tax than typhoon. January sees the first of many BoK "holds" this year.

8 October 2018 Bright Spots, and Some Warning Signs, in Japan's Wage Data (Publication Centre)

Japan's average monthly labour earnings growth tumbled to 0.9% year-over-year in August, from 1.6% in July. This is not a disaster.

8 January 2019 A Story for Everyone in Confusing Q4 German Manufacturing Data (Publication Centre)

The German economy's engine room continues to stutter.

16 Dec. 2015 Yellen Set to Signal Gradual Hikes, But Will the Data Let Her Deliver? (Publication Centre)

The Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points today, 11 years and six months since the previous tightening cycle began, in June 2004. This tightening, like that one, will end in recession eventually, but this time around we expect a garden-variety business cycle downturn rather than a massive financial crash and a near-death experience for global capitalism.

15 October 2018 Below-Consensus CPI Data will Dull any Brexit Deal Rally in Sterling (Publication Centre)

Brexit talks will dominate the headlines this week, with the focal point set to be a meeting of the European Council on Wednesday, where E.U. leaders might give the green light for an extraordinary summit next month to formalise the Withdrawal Agreement.

16 Feb. 2015 Solid GDP data, but investment needs to pick up to sustain the momentum (Publication Centre)

Normal service was resumed in the euro area with Friday's GDP reports pointing to solid growth in Germany amid weakness in Italy and France. Real GDP in the Eurozone grew 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the final three months of last year, up from 0.2% in Q3.

16 July. 2015 Upbeat Yellen Dismisses European Risk - Focus Back on U.S. Data (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen said nothing very new in the core of her Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday, repeating her view that rates likely will have to rise this year but policy will remain accommodative, and that the labor market is less tight than the headline unemployment rate suggests. The upturn in wage growth remains "tentative", in her view, making the next two payroll reports before the September FOMC meeting key to whether the Fed moves then.

16 March 2018 Weak Data Suggest the MPC Won't Clearly Signal a May Hike Next Week (Publication Centre)

In order to support current market pricing, the MPC will have to be more specific about the timing of the next rate hike in the minutes of next Thursday's meeting.

16 June 2017 Why is France not Pulling its Weight in EZ Inflation Data? (Publication Centre)

It's hard for a central bank presiding over an ageing economy to achieve a core inflation target of close to 2%. In yesterday's Monitor, we showed that German core inflation has averaged a modest 1.3% in this business cycle, despite solid GDP growth. The picture isn't much better for the ECB if we look at France.

15 November. 2016 Autos and Higher Gas Prices Will Flatter October Retail Sales Data (Publication Centre)

The combination of unexpectedly strong auto sales and rising gas prices should generate strong-looking headline retail sales numbers for October. We have no idea what to expect for November, with two-thirds of the month coming after the election, but the final pre- election sales report will look good.

15 November 2017 Increasing Political Volatility Outshines Strong Brazil Sales Data (Publication Centre)

Politics remain centre-stage in Brazil, despite positive news on the economic front. President Michel Temer's government continues to advance pension reform, despite the tight calendar and concerns about his political capital. But volatility is on the rise.

14 March 2019 Korea's Labour Market Data Throw Another Curveball (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate tumbled to 3.7% in February, after the leap to 4.4% in January.

14 June 2019 If the BoK Blinks--and Cuts--it Would be Ignoring Better Data (Publication Centre)

Korea watchers appear to be hanging on Governor Lee Ju-yeol's every word, searching for any sign that he'll drop his hawkish pursuit of more sustainable household debt levels and prioritise short-term growth concerns.

14 May. 2015 Upbeat GDP Data in France Partly Offset Trade Hit in Germany (Publication Centre)

Real GDP in the Eurozone rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, in line with the consensus, but slightly below our expectation for a 0.5% increase. We don't get much detail from the country-specific advance estimates but all evidence indicates that the technical hit from net trade was much larger than we expected.

15 Aug 2019 Today's Data Wave Will be Split Strong Consumers, Weak Industry (Publication Centre)

Today brings an astonishing eight economic reports, so by the end of the wave of numbers we'll have a pretty good idea of how the economy performed in the first month of the third quarter.

15 Jan. 2015 Inflation Data Confirm Investment Malaise in the French Economy (Publication Centre)

France just about avoided slipping into deflation in December, with the CPI rising 0.1% year-over-year, down from 0.3% in November. The 4.4% drop in the energy component should have pushed inflation below zero, but a seasonal increase in tourism services was enough to offset the drag from oil prices.

15 December 2016 October's Surprising Labor Data Will Make the MPC Think, not Act (Publication Centre)

The Bank of England won't set markets alight today. We expect another 9-0 vote to leave rates unchanged at 0.25%, and to continue with the £50B of gilt purchases and $10B of corporate bond purchases announced in August. This is not to say, though, that everything is plain sailing for the Monetary Policy Committee.

16 October 2017 Rate Hike Bets Likely Will Fade After September's CPI Data (Publication Centre)

September's consumer price figures likely will surprise to the downside, prompting markets to reassess their view that the MPC will almost certainly raise interest rates next month.

16 Sept. 2015 Industry in Less-Bad Shape Than August Data Suggest - Q4 Better? (Publication Centre)

We aren't going to pretend for a minute that the manufacturing sector is anything other than weak, but the 0.5% drop in output in August--the worst month since January 2014--hugely overstates the extent of industry's struggles. All the decline was due to a 6.4% plunge in auto output, but a glance at the recent path of production in this sector makes it very clear that its short-term swings aren't to be taken seriously. Auto production fell by 4.5% in June, rocketed by 10.6% in July, and then dropped sharply in August.

19 October. 2016 Labour Data to Point to Slower Household Spending Growth Ahead (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market figures likely will cast doubt over the sustainability of strong growth in household spending. Growth in the three-month average level of employment likely weakened in August, from July's impressive 1.9% year-over-year rate.

19 Dec. 2014 - Fed on Course to Raise Rates in Spring, Unless the Data Intervene (Publication Centre)

If clarity is the first test of written English, the FOMC failed miserably yesterday. "Considerable time" is gone, but the new formulation--"the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy"--was not clearly defined, though the FOMC did say it is "consistent with its previous statement".

2 Dec 2019 Business Sentiment Likely has Hit Bottom, but Hard Data Still Softening (Publication Centre)

We're reasonably happy with the idea that business sentiment is stabilizing, albeit at a low level, but that does not mean that all the downside risk to economic growth is over.

2 Dec 2019 The Effects of the Protests are Starting to Show up in Chile's Data (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets and currencies had a bad November, due to global trade war concerns, the USD rebound and domestic factors.

2 July 2018 Activity Data Still don't Give the MPC the Green Light to Hike (Publication Centre)

In the wake of last week's national accounts release, markets judge that the probability of a Bank Rate hike at the August 2 MPC meeting has increased to about 65%, from 60% beforehand.

2 Dec. 2015 Brazil's Q3 Data Confirm The Worst Recession On Record (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession is getting uglier. Real GDP in Brazil fell 1.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, much worse than expected, though marginally less terrible than the downwardly revised 2.1% contraction in Q2. Year-over-year, the economy plunged by 4.5% in the third quarter, down from -3.0% in Q2, and -2.5% in the first half. The disappointment was widespread in Q3; though rising mining output was a positive, the underlying trend in mining is still falling. The key story here, though, is that the economy has sunk into its worst slump since the Great Depression.

19 April 2018 Japan's Trade Data Reinforce our View of Zero GDP Growth in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade activity slowed sharply in Q1. The yen value of exports fell 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, after a 5.5% jump in Q4.

18 June 2018 Weak Data to Stop the MPC Talking- Up Rate Hike Chances This Week (Publication Centre)

Markets currently see a 50/50 chance that the MPC will raise Bank Rate in August and will be looking for a strong signal on Thursday that the next meeting is "in play".

17 Oct 2019 Early Signs of Stabilisation in the Eurozone Auto Sales Data (Publication Centre)

The beleaguered EZ car sector finally enjoyed some relief at the end of Q3, though base effects were the major driver of yesterday's strong headline.

17 January 2017 December Data Understates Core Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the December core retail sales numbers were something of a damp squib. The headline numbers were lifted by an incentive-driven jump in auto sales and the rise in gas prices, but our measure of core sales--stripping out autos, gas and food--was dead flat. One soft month doesn't prove anything, and core sales rose at a 3.9% annualized rate in the fourth quarter as a whole.

17 September 2018 Hurricane Florence will Distort the Data, but not on Harvey's Scale (Publication Centre)

As we reach our deadline on Sunday afternoon, eastern time, Tropical Storm Florence continues to dump vast quantities of rain on the Carolinas, and is forecast to head through Kentucky and Tennessee, before heading north.

18 April 2018 Colombia's Softer Activity Data is Temporary, Expect an Acceleration (Publication Centre)

The February activity report in Colombia showed a modest pick-up in manufacturing activity and strength in the retail sales numbers.

18 Dec. 2014 - Fed on Course to Raise Rates in Spring, Unless the Data Intervene (Publication Centre)

If clarity is the first test of written English, the FOMC failed miserably yesterday. "Considerable time" is gone, but the new formulation--"the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy"--was not clearly defined, though the FOMC did say it is "consistent with its previous statement".

18 April 2019 China can only Disappoint in Q2, after March and Q1 Data (Publication Centre)

China's real GDP growth was unchanged at 6.4% year-over-year in Q1, above the consensus for a slowdown to 6.3%.

14 Jan 2020 A Recap of the Main Story in the EZ before the First Q1 Data (Publication Centre)

The EZ calendar has been extremely busy in the first few weeks of the year, making it virtually impossible to see the forest for the trees.

14 February 2017 Brace for January Data to Show Another Hefty Rise in CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

January's consumer price report, released today, likely will show that CPI inflation jumped to 1.9%--its highest rate since June 2014--from 1.6% in December. Inflation will continue to take big upward steps over the coming months, as retailers pass on to consumers large increase in import prices and energy companies increase tariffs.

11 April 2018 February Data Likely will Show that the Industrial Revival is Losing Pace (Publication Centre)

Industrial production hit its stride last year, notching up eight consecutive month-to-month gains--the longest run of unbroken growth since May 1994--before a setback in December, which was triggered by the temporary closure of the Forties oil pipeline.

10 Mar. 2016 Calendar Distortions Plague the Hours Data, Not Just Wages (Publication Centre)

We've had some correspondence questioning our view on the "weakness" of February hourly earnings, which we firmly believe were depressed by a persistent calendar quirk. Almost nine times in 10 over the past decade, when the 15th of the month has fallen after the week of the 12th--the payroll survey week--the monthly gain in wages has undershot the prior trend.

11 Feb. 2016 March is Still in Play, but Only if Data and Markets Cooperate (Publication Centre)

If Fed Chair Yellen's objective yesterday was to deliver studied ambiguity in her Testimony--and we believe it was--she succeeded. She offered plenty to both sides of the rate debate. For the hawks, she noted that unemployment is now "...in line with the median of FOMC participants' most recent estimates of its longer-run normal level", and that inflation is still expected to return to the 2% target, "...once oil and import prices stop falling".

11 July 2018 Monthly GDP Data Tip the Balance Towards an August Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

The upturn in the new monthly measure of GDP in May, released yesterday, was strong enough--just--to suggest that the MPC likely will raise Bank Rate at its next meeting on August 2.

11 Mar. 2016 Brace for Volatility in the Trade Data as Oil Prices Swing (Publication Centre)

If Brent oil prices remain at their current $41 through the end of the second quarter--a big ask, we know, but you have to start with something--the average price of petroleum products imported into the U.S. will rise at an annualized rate of about 70% from their first quarter level.

11 June 2018 Production and Labour Market Data will Hit Rate Hike Odds (Publication Centre)

The resolution of tensions in Italy and aboveconsensus U.K. PMIs for May last week persuaded investors that the MPC likely will press on and raise interest rates soon.

10 July. 2015 June's Inflation Data Underlines Divergent Monetary Paths Ahead (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank has ignored, so far, the severe economic downturn and has continued its aggressive monetary tightening in order to regain credibility and curb stubbornly high inflation. In contrast, Mexico's central bank is in an enviable position, with inflation below target and under control. Its monetary policy is mainly dependent on the Fed's rate normalization.

10 July 2019 The BoJ Faces a Slew of Very Nasty Data, it Still won't Ease (Publication Centre)

We think Japanese monetary policy easing essentially is tapped out, both theoretically and by political constraints.

07 Jan. 2016 Solid EZ Economic Data Amid Rising Volatility in Equity Markets (Publication Centre)

Increased volatility has given equity investors a torrid start to the year, but economic reports have been strong, and yesterday's PMIs were no exception. The composite index in the Eurozone rose marginally to 54.3 in December from 54.2 in November, slightly higher than the initial estimate of 54.0. This is consistent with a continuing cyclical recovery, and real GDP growth of 0.4%-to-0.5% in Q4, modestly higher than the 0.3% rise in the third quarter.

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Is Germany in recession? Yes, if you ask the IFO survey.

08 Jan. 2016 Expect Robust Jobs Data, but Downside Risk for Wages (Publication Centre)

The underlying trend in payroll growth is running at about 225K-to-250K, perhaps more, and the leading indicators we follow suggest that's a reasonable starting point for our December forecast. The trend in jobless claims is extraordinarily low and stable--the week-to-week volatility is eye-catching, especially over the holidays, but unimportant--and indicators of hiring remain robust. The unusually warm weather in the eastern half of the country between the November and December survey weeks also likely will give payrolls a small nudge upwards, with construction likely the key beneficiary, as in November.

1 June 2017 Money Data Suggest Q1's Slowdown Won't be Short-lived (Publication Centre)

April's money and credit figures suggest that GDP growth has remained sluggish in Q2. Households' broad money holdings increased by just 0.3% month-to-month in April.

10 January 2017 The Core Inventory Cycle is Turning, but Q4 Data Likely Won't Show it (Publication Centre)

For some time now we have argued that collapse in capital spending in the oil sector was the source of most of the softening of activity in the manufacturing and wholesaling sectors last year.

10 April 2018 Falling Stock Prices Threaten NFIB Headlines, Labor Data Strong (Publication Centre)

It's probably too soon to expect to see a meaningful reaction in the NFIB small business survey to the drop in stock prices, but it likely is coming, and a hit in today's March report can't be ruled out entirely.

11 Oct 2019 Core Inflation is Still Rising, Despite September's Soft Data (Publication Centre)

The undershoot in the September core CPI does not change our view that the trend in core inflation is rising, and is likely to surprise substantially to the upside over the next six-to-12 months.

11 October 2017 JOLTS Data Signal Rapid Job Gains, and Tight Labor Supply (Publication Centre)

Today's JOLTS survey covers August, which seems like a long time ago. But the report is worth your attention nonetheless.

13 Nov. 2015 Retail Sales Data are Misleading When Goods Prices Fall (Publication Centre)

Retail sales account for some 30% of GDP--more than all business investment and government spending combined--so the monthly numbers directly capture more of the economy than any other indicator. Translating the monthly sales numbers into real GDP growth is not straightforward, though, because the sales numbers are nominal. Sales have been hugely depressed over the past year by the plunging price of gasoline and, to a lesser extent, declines in prices of imported consumer goods.

13 May 2019 Poor Data in Mexico are Gradually Setting the Stage for Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

External and domestic shocks in Mexico over the last two years, including the "gasolinazo", NAFTA renegotiation and the presidential election, have put the country's financial metrics under severe stress and pushed inflation to cyclical highs.

14 August 2017 July's Soft-Looking Core CPI was Different from Previous Weak Data (Publication Centre)

July's fifth straight undershoot to consensus in the core CPI was very different the previous four. Only one component--lodging away from home--prevented the first 0.2% month-to-month print since February.

14 Dec. 2015 November Data Will Mark the First Step in Inflation's Long March Up (Publication Centre)

November's consumer prices figures, released tomorrow, look set to show that the U.K.'s spell of negative inflation has ended. CPI inflation is set to pick-up decisively over the coming months, even if oil prices continue to drift down. In fact, fuel prices likely will contribute to the pick-up in inflation from October's -0.1% rate. November's 1.5% fall in prices at the pump was smaller than the 2.3% drop in the same month last year, so the year-over-year rate will rise. Fuel's contribution to CPI inflation therefore will pick up, albeit very marginally, to -0.47pp from -0.50pp in October.

14 February 2017 Will Today's EZ GDP Report Overcome Poor German Data? (Publication Centre)

All eyes in the Eurozone will be on the second estimate of Q4 GDP today, and the report likely will confirm that growth accelerated in Q4. We think real GDP rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, up from a 0.3% increase in Q3, in line with the first estimate. If this forecast is correct, the year-over-year rate will be unchanged at 1.8%. Risks to the headline, however, are tilted to the downside.

14 December 2016 Labour Data Set to Show a Clearer Deteriorating Trend (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market figures likely will bring further signs that firms are recruiting more cautiously and limiting pay awards, due to still-elevated economic uncertainty.

13 March 2017 Will the Labor Data Push the Fed to Hike Again in June? (Publication Centre)

With rates now certain to rise this week, the real importance of the employment picture is what it says about the timing of the next hike. To be clear, we think the Fed will raise rates again in June, and will at that meeting add another dot to the plot, making four hikes this year.

13 July. 2015 Dull Yellen Testimony Given Greek Story - then Back to Labor Data? (Publication Centre)

We expect Greece to do what it needs to do by Wednesday to secure its third bailout, and, judging by her speech in Cleveland last Friday, so does the Fed Chair. It's always risky to assume blithely that European politicians will do the right thing in the end, and they seem absolutely determined to humiliate Greece before writing the checks, but a completed deal is the most likely outcome.

12 October 2018 The Run of Better Trade Data Will End Abruptly (Publication Centre)

Long-standing readers will know that we have been downbeat on the potential for net external trade to boost the economy following sterling's 2016 depreciation.

12 Nov 2019 China's October Money Data Mean a 2020 GDP Growth Downgrade (Publication Centre)

We have downgraded our 2019 and 2020 China GDP forecasts on previous occasions because monetary conditions have been surprisingly unresponsive to lower short-term rates.

13 Apr. 2016 Key Data Improving in the Biggest LatAm Economies, Just (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in Mexico surged 2.6% year-over-year in February, up from a 0.8% increase in January. A favourable calendar effect, however, is a key part of this story. Once adjusted for the leap year, which added an extra working day, industrial production rose only 0.8%, down from a 1.6% expansion in January.

13 August 2018 Brexit's Chill Winds are Clearly Visible in the Q2 GDP Data (Publication Centre)

The Q2 GDP figures show that the economy has little underlying momentum.

13 February 2019 Is the Collapse in the Argentinian Survey and Real Data over (Publication Centre)

We will be paying special attention to the sentiment surveys for Argentina over the coming weeks.

13 Feb. 2015 Oil Chaos is Distorting the Trade Data - Focus on Domestic Demand (Publication Centre)

Most of the time we don't pay much attention to the monthly import and export prices numbers, which markets routinely ignore. Right now, though, they matter, because the plunge in oil prices is hugely depressing the numbers and, thanks to a technical quirk, depressing reported GDP growth.

2 June 2017 May Payrolls Likely Solid, but Calendar Quirk will hit Wage Data (Publication Centre)

The 253K increase in May private payrolls reported by ADP yesterday was some a bit stronger than our 225K forecast. Plugging the difference between these numbers into our payroll model generates our 210K forecast for today's official number.

2 May 2019 April Trade Data Point to a Potential V-Shaped Recovery for Korea in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Korean exports continued to fall year-over-year in April, but the story isn't as bleak as the headlines suggest.

31 Oct 2019 The Dichotomy Between Surveys and Hard Data Continues (Publication Centre)

Another week, another batch of contradictory signals regarding the economy's current health.

31 July 2018 Money and Credit Data Cast Doubt Over the Viability of Q2's Upturn (Publication Centre)

June's money and credit figures showed that the economy still doesn't have much zing, even though lending has picked up since Q1.

31 October 2018 The October ADP will be Constrained by the Soft September Payroll Data (Publication Centre)

Today's October ADP measure of private payrolls likely will overshoot Friday's official number.

4 Dec. 2015 November Labor Data Will Support Yellen's Case for Hiking (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to see November payrolls up by about 200K this morning, but our forecast takes into account the likelihood that the initial reading will be revised up. In the five years through 2014, the first estimate of November payrolls was revised up by an average of 73K by the time o f the third estimate. Our forecast for today, therefore, is consistent with our view that the underlying trend in payrolls is 250K-plus. That's the message of the very low level of jobless claims, and the strength of all surveys of hiring, with the exception of the depressed ISM manufacturing employment index. Manufacturing accounts for only 9% of payrolls, though, so this just doesn't matter.

5 Dec. 2014 - Brace for Anything in Jobs Data (Publication Centre)

We often have quite strong views on the balance of risks in the monthly payroll numbers. November is not one of those months. We can generate plausible forecasts between about 50K and 370K, and that's much too wide for comfort. This is probably a payroll release to sit out.

4 May 2017 Fed on Hold Today After Mixed Data, but a June Hike Still Looks Likely (Publication Centre)

The Fed surprised no-one yesterday, leaving rates on hold, saying nothing new about the balance sheet, and making no substantive changes to its view on the economy. The statement was tweaked slightly, making it clear that policymakers are skeptical of the reported slowdown in GDP growth to just 0.7% in Q1: "The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory".

30 Sept. 2015 No Slowdown in Key Jobs Data, But Expect "Weak" ADP Today (Publication Centre)

Barely a day passes now without an email asking about "evidence" that the U.S. economy is slowing or even heading into recession. The usual factors cited are the elevated headline inventory-to-sales ratio, weak manufacturing activity, slowing earnings growth and the hit from weaker growth in China. We addressed these specific issues in the Monitor last week, on the 23rd--you can download it from our website--but the alternative approach to the end-of-the-world-is-nigh view is via the labor market.

30 Mar 2020 Industrial Profits Data Complete China's Grim Start to 2020 (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits in China collapsed by 38.3% year- over-year in the first two months of 2020, making December's 6.3% fall look like a minor blip.

3 Feb 2020 Some Hopeful Signs are Emerging in the Coronavirus Data (Publication Centre)

The number of coronavirus cases continues to increase, but we're expecting to see signs that the number of new cases is peaking within the next two to three weeks.

3 Apr 2020 Markets are Stabilizing, but Incoming Data will Confirm a Deep Recession (Publication Centre)

LatAm financial and FX markets have behaved relatively well in recent sessions, thanks to the array of monetary and fiscal measures taken to counter the severe risk-off environment.

3 February 2017 Upside Risk For Payrolls and Hourly Earnings in January Data Today (Publication Centre)

Our payroll model relies heavily on lagged indicators of the pace of hiring, most of which have improved in recent months after a sustained, though modest, softening which began last spring. That's why we expected an above-consensus reading from ADP on Wednesday and from the BLS today.

3 June. 2015 April trade data could be wild - They matter for Q2 GDP forecasts (Publication Centre)

We were a bit surprised to see our forecast for the April trade deficit is in line with the consensus, $44B, down from $51.4B in March, because the uncertainty is so great. The March deficit was boosted by a huge surge in non-oil imports following the resolution of the West Coast port dispute, while exports rose only slightly. As far as we can tell, ports unloaded ships waiting in harbours and at the docks, lifting the import numbers before reloading those ships.

30 July 2019 Data released last week confirmed that economic activity improved significantly in Argentina in Q2. (Publication Centre)

Argentina's Recession Has Ended, Supporting Mr. Macri's Odds

3 October 2018 Mixed Activity Data in Brazil Ahead of a Contested Presidential Election (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial production surprised to the downside in August, suggesting that manufacturing is struggling to gather momentum over the second half of the year.

5 May 2017 Surveys Signal a Solid Start to Q2, but "Hard" Data Remain Weak (Publication Centre)

Activity surveys picked up across the board in April, offering hope that the slowdown in GDP growth--to just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q1-- will be just a blip. The headline indicators of surveys from the CBI, European Commission, Lloyds Bank and Markit all improved in April and all exceeded their 2004-to-2016 averages.

5 September 2017 Underlying Trend in Labor Data Unaffected by "Soft" August Report (Publication Centre)

We had hoped that the statistical problems which have plagued the initial estimates of August payrolls in recent years had faded, but Friday's report suggests our judgement was premature.

7 June 2018 Car Sales Aren't Recovering Yet, Recent Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

At first glance, car sales appear to be staging a strong recovery, mirroring the better news on high street spending in Q2.

7 Jan. 2015 - Oil Will Flatter Headline Trade Data, But Won't Stop Q4 Hit (Publication Centre)

The plunge in oil prices me ans that U.S. oil imports are set to drop much further over the next few months, flattering the headline trade deficit. The trend in imports has been downwards since early 2013, as our first chart shows, reflecting the surge in domestic production. That surge is now over, but as falling prices become the dominant factor in the oil import story, the trend will remain downwards.

7 November 2018 China's Q3 BoP Data Confirm Trade War-Related Capital Flight (Publication Centre)

China's unadjusted current account surplus widened to $16.0B in the preliminary report for Q3, from $5.3B in Q2.

7 September 2018 Brace for Soft Looking August Payroll and Hourly Earnings Data (Publication Centre)

In the wake of yesterday's ADP report, which showed private payrolls rising by only 163K, we have pulled down our forecast for today's official number to 170K.

8 February 2017 Seasonal Problems set to Depress Mortgage Applications Data (Publication Centre)

Mortgage applications have risen, net, over the past couple of months, despite the 70bp surge in 30-year mortgage rates since the election. Indeed, we'd argue that the increase in applications is a result of the spike in rates, because it likely scared would-be homebuyers, triggering a wave of demand from people seeking to lock-in rates, fearing further increases.

8 Apr 2020 February GDP Data to Show Little Pre-Virus Momentum (Publication Centre)

February's GDP report, released on Thursday, likely will show that the economy continued to struggle for momentum, despite the fillip to sentiment stemming from the general election.

7 Aug 2019 We're Still Not Buying Healthy Data in Japan Wage Growth is Distorted (Publication Centre)

Always expect the unexpected in a bonus month for Japanese wages.

7 April 2017 Brace for Disappointing Industrial Production Data Today (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing orders in Germany recovered some ground in the middle of Q1, following the plunge at the beginning of the year. Factory orders rose 3.4% in February, pushing the year-over-year rate up to +4.6% from a revised 0.0% in January.

6 December 2018 No Real Signs of the Slowdown Story in the Labor Market Data (Publication Centre)

Behind all the talk of slowdowns and Fed pauses, we see no sign that the labor market is loosening beyond a very modest uptick in jobless claims, and even that looks suspicious.

6 December 2016 Expect More Downbeat Data From Chile, the BCCh Will Ease Soon (Publication Centre)

Chile's Imacec index confirmed that economic growth is slowing. The Imacec, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 1.1 month-to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -0.4% from an already soft 1.4% in September. This marks the first annual contraction since October 2009, underscoring Chile's fragility. Mining activity plunged 7.1% year-over-year in October, while the non-mining sector rose just 0.3%, supported by services.

6 February 2018 No Change in the Bullish Message From the Eurozone PMI Data (Publication Centre)

Real M1 growth is slowing, and financial conditions are beginning to tighten in the Eurozone, but shortleading indicators continue to signal firm momentum in the economy.

6 July 2017 Downside Risk for June ADP Jobs, but Official Data Will be Stronger (Publication Centre)

Today's June ADP employment report likely will undershoot the 183K consensus, but we then expect the official payroll number tomorrow to surprise to the upside.

6 November 2017 Could a Q4 Data Bounce the MPC into Another Rate Hike? (Publication Centre)

The MPC's penchant for providing interest rate guidance reached new heights last week.

6 Mar. 2015 A more upbeat Mr. Draghi, but QE is not challenged by better economic data (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi was in a slightly more bullish mood yesterday, noting that the significant easing of financial conditions in recent months and improving sentiment show that monetary policy "has worked". Economic risks are tilted to the downside, according to the president, but they have also "diminished".

29 Jan. 2016 Data and Copom Minutes Point to no Change in Brazilian Rates (Publication Centre)

Another month, another bleak Brazilian labor market report. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased marginally to 8.3% in December, up from 8.2% in November, much worse than the 5.1% recorded in December 2014.

29 Apr. 2016 Weak Q1 Growth Won't Persist - Better Data Coming, Soon (Publication Centre)

The astonishing 86% annualized plunge in capital spending in mining structures--mostly oil wells--alone subtracted 0.6 percentage points from headline GDP growth in the first quarter. The collapse was bigger than we expected, based on the falling rig count, but the key point is that it will not be repeated in the second quarter.

24 Feb. 2015 Labor Data Set to Change Yellen's Tone at Today's Testimony? (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen is a committed believer in the orthodox idea that inflation is largely a cost-push phenomenon, and that the most important cost, by far, is labor. So in order to predict what Dr. Yellen might say about the outlook for Fed policy in her Testimony today--beyond the language of the January FOMC statement--we have to take a view on her assessment of the state of the labor market.

23 April 2018 Don't Shoot the Messenger for Spelling Out What Q1's Data Imply (Publication Centre)

The Governor's comments late last week successfully recalibrated markets, which had concluded that a May rate hike was virtually certain, despite the MPC's deliberately vague guidance.

24 Jan 2020 Mid-month Inflation Data Support Banxico and BCB's Dovish Strategy (Publication Centre)

Brazilian inflation is off to a bad start this year, but January's jump is not the start of an uptrend, and we think good news is coming.

24 January 2019 Future Fiscal Stimulus Is Still Secure, Despite Worse Borrowing Data (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the trend in public borrowing deteriorated sharply late last year. In the three months to December, borrowing on the main "PSNB ex ." measure, which excludes banks owned by the public sector, was a trivial £0.3B, or 1.6%, lower than in the same months of 2017.

24 May 2018 April's Inflation Data aren't a Blow to August Rate Hike Chances (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation dropped to 2.4% in April, from 2.5% in March, undershooting the no-change consensus and prompting many commentators to argue that the chances of an August rate hike have declined further.

24 May 2017 Soft Inflation Data Puts Pressure on BCB, Despite Brazil's Political Mess (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in Brazil are still easing rapidly. The mid-May unadjusted IPCA- 15 index rose just 0.2% month-to-month, much less than the 0.6% historical average for the month. Base effects pushed the year-over-year rate down to 3.8% from 4.1% in April. Food prices, healthcare and personal costs were the main drivers of the modest month-to-month increase.

22 November. 2016 Trade Data are Improving in the Andes... Better Still in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Colombia's trade deficit continued to narrow in Q3; a postive development now that EM are back in the firing line. Assuming no revisions, the marginal year-over-year dip in the September trade deficit means that the third quarter deficit was USD3.1B, down from US4.6B a year ago.

22 June 2018 Asian Data Point to Slowing World Trade Growth this Year (Publication Centre)

Korean trade activity is slowing.

20 January 2017 Mid-month Inflation Data Supports BCB's Front-loading Strategy (Publication Centre)

Brazilian inflation is off to a good start this year, and we think more good news is coming. The January mid-month IPCA-15 index rose an unadjusted 0.3% month-to-month, a tenth less than expected. This was the smallest gain for January since 1994 and the sixth consecutive month in which the number came in below expectations.

2 October 2018 Money Data Indicate the Recent Revival in Retail Sales Can't Last (Publication Centre)

August's money and credit figures show that households' incomes remain under pressure, indicating that the recent pick-up in growth in consumers' spending likely won't last.

21 Jan 2020 The Drop in Job Openings is Old News, Hard Data are Outperforming (Publication Centre)

Just as we turned more positive on the labor market, following three straight months of payroll gains outstripping the message from an array of surveys, the Labor Department's JOLTS report shows that the number of job openings plunged in November.

21 July 2017 What to Look for from the Fed and the Data Over the next Two Weeks (Publication Centre)

Chair Yellen remains as committed as ever to the idea that the tightening labor market will eventually push up inflation, but the unexpectedly weak core CPI readings for the past four months have complicated the picture in the near-term.

21 November. 2016 Soft Chilean Data Likely Leading to Rate Cuts Next Year (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank left rates unchanged at 3.5% last Thursday, as expected, and maintained its neutral tone. Inflation pressures are easing, economic activity remains sluggish and global risks have increased.

21 November 2018 A More Data-Dependent Fed is Still not off the Labor Market Hook (Publication Centre)

Expectations for a March rate hike have dipped since Fed Vice-Chair Clarida's CNBC interview last Friday.

24 October 2017 The Real Income Squeeze has been More Intense than Wage Data Imply (Publication Centre)

It is often argued that the average weekly earnings--AWE--figures exaggerate the severity of the squeeze on households' incomes.

25 Apr. Preliminary GDP Data to Confirm Q1 Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of first quarter GDP likely will confirm that the economic recovery lost considerable pace in early 2016. Bedlam in financial markets in January and business fears over the E.U. referendum are partly responsible for the slowdown. The deceleration, however, also reflects tighter fiscal policy, uncompetitive exports, and the economy running into supply-side constraints.

28 August 2017 Expect a Correction in the July Trade Data, but Trends are Favorable (Publication Centre)

Net foreign trade made a positive contribution of 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in the second quarter, matching the Q1 performance.

27 March 2019 COPOM Minutes, Hard Data and Political Risks Point to Stable Rates (Publication Centre)

The COPOM meeting minutes, released yesterday, brought a balanced message aimed at curbing market pricing of further rate cuts, in our view.

28 February 2019 Expect Underwhelming Q4 GDP Growth Data Today Q1 Likely Worse (Publication Centre)

We expect to learn today that the economy expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, slowing from 3.4% in the third.

28 March 2018 February Foreign Trade Data Could Move the Needle on Q1 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Markets often greet the monthly international trade numbers with a shrug.

28 Sept. 2015 Don't Believe Case-Shiller Home Price Data - Prices are Rising (Publication Centre)

Former Treasury Secretary and thwarted would-be Fed Chair Larry Summers has been arguing for some time that the Fed should not raise rates "...until it sees the whites of inflation's eyes". As part of his campaign to persuade actual Fed Chair Yellen of the error of her intended ways, he argued at the World Economic Forum in September that the strong dollar has played no role in depressing inflation. Never one to miss an opportunity to diss the competition, he wrote that Stanley Fischer's view that the dollar has indeed restrained inflation is "substantially weakened" by the hard evidence. Dr. Summers' view is that inflation is being held down by other, longer-lasting factors, principally the slack in the lab or market, rather than the "transitory" influences favored by the Fed.

28 Oct. 2015 Domestic Data Point to Robust Third Quarter Growth in Mexico (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy is recovering gradually, despite many external headwinds. This week, the IGAE economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--rose a solid 2.6% year-over-year in August, up from 2.0% in July. In the first half the economy grew on average 2.4%. The report showed increases in all three sectors, most notably agriculture, up 8.2% year-over-year, followed by services, 3.3%, and industrial activities, with a 1.0% gain.

27 March 2017 Eurozone PMI Data are Sizzling, but can they be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance Eurozone PMI reports capped a fine quarter for the survey. The composite PMI jumped to a 80-month high of 56.7 in March, from 56.1 in February, rising to a cyclical high over Q1 as a whole.

27 Mar 2020 Pre-Virus Q1 Data in Brazil and Mexico Supported More Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus pandemic looks set to spread rapidly throughout LatAm.

26 February 2018 Look for the Forest Among the Trees in the EZ Core Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Friday's final CPI report in the Eurozone confirmed that inflation dipped marginally in January, by 0.1 percentage points, to 1.3%.

25 Nov. 2015 Do September's Weak Sales Data Signal Trouble in Mexico? (Publication Centre)

Improving fundamentals have supported private spending in Mexico during the last few quarters. This week's soft retail sales report does not change the picture of a strong underlying trend in consumption. Sales were weaker than expected, falling 1.1% month-to-month in September, but this followed a 1.5% jump in August, and average gains of 1.1% in the previous three months. Mexican retail sales are much more volatile than in most developed economies, and we have been expecting mean reversion following rapid gains during the first half of the year and most of Q3.

26 Mar. 2015 Survey Data Point to a Recovery for German Investment in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The IFO survey released yesterday provides further evidence that the cyclical recovery in Germany's economy continued in the current quarter. The headline business climate index rose to 107.9 in March from 106.8 in February, lifted by increases in both the current assessments and expectations index.

26 October 2017 The Capex Rebound Promised by the NFIB is Reaching the Hard Data (Publication Centre)

After three straight 1.3% month-to-month increases in core capital goods orders, we are becoming increasingly confident that the upturn in business investment signalled by the NFIB survey is now materializing.

27 Feb. 2015 Temporary Factors Distorting Inflation and Orders Data (Publication Centre)

The solid 0.2% increase in January's core CPI, coupled with the small upward revision to December, ought to offer a degree of comfort to anyone worried about European-style deflation pressures in the U.S.

27 Feb 2020 Survey Data in France were Stable and Solid Midway through Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 scare can be split into two stages, the initial outbreak in China, concentrated in Wuhan, and the now-worrying signs that clusters are forming in other parts of the world, primarily in South Korea, the Middle East and Italy.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Echoes of the global financial crisis and the 2011 tsunami in Japan's manufacturing PMI; Japan's services index tanks to a record low

22 June. 2016 Resilient EZ Survey Data Ahead, but Sentiment Would Fall on Brexit (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ZEW investor sentiment in Germany shows showed no signs that uncertainty over the U.K. referendum is taking its toll on EZ investors. The expectations index surged to 19.2 in June, from 6.4 in May, the biggest month-to-month jump since January last year, when investors were eagerly expecting the ECB's QE announcement.

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference (Publication Centre)

In one line: The ECB is all in; buckle up!

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Positive, but the trend is still down.

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ms. Lagarde is off to a good start.

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Unchanged and still-dovish; in short, mission accomplished.

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Trichet's ill-time rate hikes in 2011 are a clerical error compared with today's disaster.

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: A rate cut and QE are on the way.

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hold the press; we have an increase in the EC sentiment index.

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim, but not nearly grim enough in terms of the pain that lies ahead.

EZ Datanote: EC Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Covid-19 finally hits EZ consumer sentiment; worse is to come.

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment and Unemployment, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: A further rise in sentiment and falling unemployment; not bad.

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent, but more upside is needed in Q1 to tell a positive story overall.

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing given last month's rebound.

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The EZ economy was improving coming into the Covid-19 scare.

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: The end of an era.

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Steady and dovish.

EZ Datanote: EU fiscal stimulus (Publication Centre)

In one line: Europe is moving on the fiscal front.

EZ Datanote: Employment & Trade, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: The EZ labour market remains resilient; the trade surplus is still rising.

EZ Datanote: EU top positions (Publication Centre)

In one line: Who are the new women, and man, at the top of the EU's hierarchy?

EZ Datanote: EZ Trade and ZEW (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weakness in imports lifted the surplus; ZEW is still depressed.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty; the slowdown intensified in Q3.

EZ Datanote: EZ Wage Growth and ZEW (Publication Centre)

In one line: Wage growth was slowing ahead of the Covid-19 shock; is the record m/m slide in ZEW a sign for the PMIs?

EZ Datanote: Economic Sentiment, Eurozone, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surprisingly strong, but too soon to cheer.

EZ Datanote: ECB Stimulus (Publication Centre)

In one line: The ECB make amends.

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: The ECB is loading its bazooka, but with what?

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Unchanged and dovish; policy-review time table and details to be revealed later.

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: The market speaks, and the ECB listens.

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Aggressive, but today's package also raises key questions about the ECB's policy assumptions.

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: The ECB is all in; buckle up!

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: A repeat of the key message sent in September; loose policy is here to stay.

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation and Construction, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rebound in the CPI confirmed; the rebound in construction will be short-lived, but Q4 now looks solid overall.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Q1, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but risks loom for the Q2 numbers.

EZ Datanote: Consumers' Spending and Inflation in France and EC Sentiment (Publication Centre)

In one line: Only a modest Q3 rebound for consumption in France?

EZ Datanote: Consumers' Spending & Inflation, France (Publication Centre)

In one line: The trend in goods spending is now rising; energy inflation rose further, but the core rate dipped.

EZ Datanote: Consumers' Spending and Inflation, France (Publication Centre)

In one line: A solid start to Q2 for French consumers.

EZ Datanote: Consumers' Spending and Inflation, France, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: A slow start to Q4 for the consumer; headline inflation is now rising.

EZ Datanote: Consumers' Spending in France, Saxony CPI, and German Unemployment (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust spending in France through Q3; the German labour market is rolling over.

EZ Datanote: Consumers' Spending in France & Saxony Inflation (Publication Centre)

In one line: A good start to Q3 for French consumers; German inflation likely fell in August.

EZ Datanote: Consumer Sentiment, Eurozone, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another soft headline at the start of Q4.

EZ Datanote: Consumer Sentiment, Eurozone, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Biggest m/m increase since mid-2017; no kidding! No coronavirus here.

EZ Datanote: Consumer Confidence, France, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still rising...

EZ Datanote: Consumer Confidence, France, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still improving.

EZ Datanote: Consumer Confidence, France, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great headline, great details.

EZ Datanote: Consumer Confidence, France, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: French households are doing great.

EZ Datanote: Consumer Sentiment, Eurozone, August (Publication Centre)

No change; overall robust.

EZ Datanote: Consumer Confidence, Germany and France, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but the coronavirus is a threat for the rest of Q1.

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by fall in the trade surplus; portfolio outflows remain modest.

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid!

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Eurozone, Q2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by slowdown in net trade and consumers' spending.

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Portfolio flows are shooting higher; foreigners suddenly like EZ equities.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Colour us confused; is the inventory correction over already?

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by crash in net exports and slower growth in consumers' spending.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weak, and coronavirus now casts a shadow over the Q1/Q2 numbers.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Net trade offset a crash in inventories; but consumption also picked up.

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but probably not sustainable; portfolio flows are accelerating.

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Holding on to recent gains, but we still look for a setback in H1.

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust overall; portfolio flows soared, but they're about to collapse.

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid; the EZ's external surplus is now firmly above 3% of GDP.

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest rebound; net portfolio outflows are still subdued, but that should change soon.

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stung by weakness across the board, but expect a rebound next month.

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Are capital flows pointing to a stronger euro?

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core inflation will fall back this month; construction jumped in Q1, but a setback looms in Q2.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stung by volatility in major orders, but still unequivocally grim.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, February (Publication Centre)

German manufacturing was in clear recovery mode before Covid-19.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Horrid, hideous, harrowing...you get the picture.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: A stable headline with resilience in services and depressed manufacturing

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stability; thanks to solid services.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but also resilient overall.

EZ Datanote: Full-Year GDP, Germany, 2019 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slowdown confirmed; budget surplus stronger than expected, again.

EZ Datanote: French Industrial Production and German Labour Costs (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid start to the year for manufacturing in France; every little helps.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better than expected.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Services were improving before the Covid-19 outbreak.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still grim, but the rate of contraction is easing.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty; downside risks remain for industrial production in Q2.

EZ Datanote: Final November Inflation and Construction, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core inflation is overshooting; construction set to remain soft in Q4.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly services PMIs in Spain and Italy, but they should recover next month.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: EZ services are still holding up.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: An altogether more positive picture.

EZ Datanote: GDP & Employment, Eurozone, Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stabilisation, not recession.

EZ Datanote: GDP, Employment and Retail Sales, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: EZ GDP growth held up by consumers' and government spending.

EZ Datanote: GfK Sentiment in Germany & Consumers' Spending in France (Publication Centre)

In one line: The French consumer looks o.k.; in Germany, surveys now point to slower growth.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Sentiment, Germany, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lukewarm ... but still consistent with decent growth in spending.

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rebound confirmed, we think.

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent, but backward-looking given current events.

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Bafflingly weak; but note the jump in manufacturing sentiment.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's inflationary upturn will be limited. Japan's activity index reinforces case for Q1 GDP downgrades.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Sentiment, Germany, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Encouraging, but the details were mixed.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Sentiment, Germany, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but still consistent with solid growth in consumption.

EZ Datanote: GfK and INSEE Confidence, Germany and France, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weak, and probably underestimating the incoming slowdown.

EZ Datanote: GDP, Unemployment and Inflation, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mixed, but overall further evidence of stabilisation.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany (Publication Centre)

In one line: No letup for Germany.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: No virus here.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Sentiment, Germany, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: The downtrend resumes, but take the headline with a pinch of salt.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Sentiment, Germany, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent headline, even better details.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly, but not nearly bad enough to tell the true story on the ground.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Promising, but a coronavirus hit looms in the next few months.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soaring, but stabilisation beckons in Q1.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Deflation in manufactured goods is still a big drag.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Energy inflation rose, but the core rate dipped.

EZ Datanote: Final inflation, France, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising food inflation offset plunge in energy inflation; core stable.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Very soft, but services inflation should rebound soon.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boosted by sharp rebound in services inflation.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by lower energy and services inflation.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Energy inflation is back above zero; the core rate likely will ease a bit further in Q1.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Normal, and poor, services resumed.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Very strong; it won't last, but every little helps at this point.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Dreadful.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still stuck in the mud.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation and Construction, Eurozone, August and July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't extrapolate low EZ inflation; both the headline and core will rise into year-end.

EZ Datanote: Final IFO, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Worse than the initial estimate; Germany's economy is sliding into the abyss.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: French core inflation is now back to its previous trend; further upside?

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: French core inflation is rebounding.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMI and Sentix, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still miserable in EZ manufacturing, but an impressive jump in the Sentix.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by slower inflation in energy and food; the core rate rose, but the details were soft.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still weak, but a few signs of improvement.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Small rebound confirmed, but still overall weak.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but old news.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bad finish to a bad year.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: German (HICP) core inflation is rising.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Leisure services are throwing the core rate around.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany and France, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core firmer in both countries, but they're probably now stabilising.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany and France, February (Publication Centre)

EZ core inflation is sticky, and probably rising.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by lower inflation in energy and clothing.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Driven higher by energy inflation; the core rate eased.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: The HICP core rate appears to be returning to its trend of about 1.5%

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: All over the place.

EZ Datanote: Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ouch; not the best send-off for the Christmas holiday.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Trade, and Car Sales - EZ (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back on disinflation watch.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's bonus drop is dictating spending in Q3

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Overdue correction in the primary income surplus brings Korea's current account back down to earth.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 7 Jan 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's current account surplus should rebound sharply in December. The rate of QE in Japan slipped in December.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 7 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

China is not taking any chances with the RMB ahead of its 70th anniversary

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage growth is not strong enough to support households through the tax hike

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's see-sawing trade surplus is likely to continue in the short run, but it mostly has peaked. Japan's unadjusted current account surplus slipped to ¥1,211B in June, from ¥1,595B in May, marginally surpassing the consensus, ¥1,149B.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Cash earnings in Japan surprise to the upside thanks to base effects... January will be as good as it gets.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 Jan 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin services PMI corrects from November's Singles' Day bump

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's services PMI points to Q2 GDP contraction. China's Caixin services PMI highlights the reasons for official concern over employment. Korea's current account slips into deficit for the first time since 2012.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Caixin services PMI shows labour market worries before the virus hit

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's meagre cut is not enough. Broad slowdown in Chinese services activity continues. Japan's rate of QE is low but roughly stable.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's current account surplus rebounded on a smaller services deficit in July

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus will put renewed pressure on Korea's current account surplus.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage growth bounces back on volatile bonuses; distortions still at play? Korea's current account surplus has bottomed out, but pressure on the won will continue to rise in the S/T.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Valuation effects boost China's June FX reserves. Japan's currency account surplus unlikely to fall further. Japan's core machine orders should shake policymakers' conviction in Capex resilience.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's real imports showing signs of stabilisation? Japan's regular wages staging a comeback?

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: A solid start of the year.

EZ Datanote: Business and Consumer Sentiment, France, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Marginally better in manufacturing; upturn in consumer sentiment halted, for now.

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust.

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Sentiment, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but not a major shift in the key story.

EZ Datanote: Advance EC Consumer Sentiment, EZ, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointingly unchanged.

EZ Datanote: Advance CPI Germany and EC Sentiment (Publication Centre)

In one line: The bottom in German inflation is in, at least in the near term.

ASIAN DATAWRAP 8 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus falls unexpectedly in April, thanks partly to a bump in imports. Japan's services PMI falls despite holiday boost. The BoJ remains in a holding pattern. Korea's current account surplus rose in March, but its overall downtrend remains intact.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Machine tool orders in Japan are still in the doldrums.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q2 GDP growth was not all it's cracked up to be. M2 growth in Japan inched up in July, but trends at the margin have rolled over. China's July inflation uptick shows that the swine flu outbreak is nowhere near under control. China officially enters PPI deflation... but it shouldn't last beyond Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage growth rebounded because August is not a bonus month. Japan's current account maintains stability as trade balance cross currents persist. China's services PMI report contains some positive details but we aren't convinced. The rebuilding of Korea's current account surplus will soon lose momentum.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan GDP now shows more of the tax distortions. Japan's current account surplus is likely to see another downshift. Chinese imports boosted soybeans and circuits. China's FX reserves slide in November, as Phase One talks enter crunch time.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's money growth reverts back after a brief uptick. Japan's wage headline improves, details deteriorate. Japan's machine tool orders should turn stomachs.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Not giving up on China's stimulus yet. China's PPI inflation will head higher this month. China's CPI inflation will peak soon.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Rebound in Chinese trade will be hampered in the short run by virus disruptions around the world. PBoC leant against Covid-19 pressures on the RMB... a far cry from January's Phase One rally. Japan's Q4 GDP nose-dive downgraded on weaker private and public investment. Japan's current account surplus is facing strong crosscurrents.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Let's not get carried away with the Japanese fiscal stimulus. Korea's current account surplus rebounded in October, as the services gap returned to its narrowing trend.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI was due a bounce

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Minimal front-loading ahead of Japan's October tax hike so far.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Larger-than-expected collapse in Japanese retail sales highlight inefficacy of tax-smoothing efforts

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's firms are done hiring. Tokyo inflation points to uptick in national gauge, driven by non-core effects. Japan's start to Q4 goes from bad to worse, as industrial production tanks in October. Still far too soon to call time on Korea's IP recovery, despite the October setback. Governor Lee attempts to manage 2020 expectations, as the BoK stands pat after the October cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

National CPI probably will rise in October, despite Tokyo stability

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Headline GDP growth in Q3 was unchanged, but the revised details mostly were positive. BoJ in a holding pattern on aggregate JGB purchases; focus on curve steepening

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

No post-lockdown bounce for private services in China

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's stable unemployment rate belies underlying weakness. Tokyo energy inflation turns the corner. Sales tax preparations breathe life into Japanese production in May... if only temporarily. Korea's IP plunge in May shows why Japan can't rest on its laurels.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Tokyo inflation had further to fall in September than the national gauge. Some positive stories in Chinese industrial profits despite the gloomy headline.

EZ Datanote: Consumer Confidence and Trade, France (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't panic over the dip in consumer sentiment; net trade likely lifted Q4 GDP growth.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Chinese profits show signs of stabilisation, but headwinds will continue

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's PMI report bodes well for Q3, but points to headwinds thereafter. PPI deflation in Korea is unlikely to get worse than the August drop.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Household debt forced the BoK toward targeted measures and away from a system-wide cut

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Fresh deterioration in Chinese profits.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Horrendous Chinese profits plummet should spur the authorities into further stimulus. No signs yet of persistent discounting in Tokyo, but a lockdown would change things overnight.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin gauge still to register renewed tariff threat. Japan's Capex growth on borrowed time. Korean exports stumble in May, but Q2 is shaping up to be better than Q1. Korea's PMI for May highlights the still-huge downside risks facing exporters.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Marginally stronger Q4 GDP growth in Korea implies a more painful Q1 virus hit, CPI inflation in Korea should continue to slide, as the slump in oil prices starts to feed through, Remember the BoJ never officially abandoned it's ¥80T JGB purchase target

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ remains in an alternate reality in order to avoid a rate cut, underlining its concerns over damage to the financial sector. Chances of a serious PBoC blunder are rising. No "Phase 1" sentiment lift for Chinese manufacturers. A sharp fall in China's official services gauge was due. This probably is as good as it'll get for Japanese industrial production. Korean industrial production remains volatile, but the trend is decisively up.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI was poised for major disappointment... the trade war impact is clear. Don't be fooled by the relative stability of China's non-manufacturing PMI. Japan's March unemployment uptick was early; April was payback. Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's industrial production ticks up after extreme weakness; don't hold your breath for the recovery. Japan's consumers in poor shape, but maybe it's not that bad. The upswing in Korean industrial production likely to take a breather this month. The BoK holds firm, despite rising calls for a rate cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin gauges are picking up but both are volatile

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's current account balance returns to the black in May

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Smaller services sector firms worse hit by virus containment. Korean virus response notches up in the wake of the Fed move.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's Q1 GDP downgrade will fuel calls for a rate cut. CPI inflation in Korea should soon peak out. Ignore the uptick in Japanese monetary base; it's a one off.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Consensus-beating March PMI merely underscores how bad February was... the economy isn't out of the woods. The non-manufacturing bounce was broad-based, but construction led the way. Japan's job openings plunge shows the direction of travel for unemployment. Japan's retail sales suggest Q1 pain to be concentrated in March. Japan inc granted a last month of reprieve before the Covid-19 storm hits. Korean carmakers' sourcing woes largely to blame for February hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI edged up in July. Services in China are finally starting to feel the pinch. Korean IP looks poised for a stronger increase in July, notwithstanding Japan's export curbs.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Focus on Japan's job-to-applicant ratio, not the unemployment rate

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan: Monetary base growth slowed to 2.8% y/y in August, from 3.7% in July. Bloomberg reports no consensus, Korea: Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 1.0% q/q, from 1.1% in the preliminary report, below the no-change consensus. • Korea: CPI inflation fell to 0.0% in August, from 0.6% in July, below the consensus, 0.2%.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ snubs the doves. Japan's unemployment rate downtick was minimal. The weak external backdrop dominates Japan's pre-tax front-loading industrial activity.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

PBoC lowers rates, and signals more to come.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs are not yet fully picking up the coronavirus; China's non-manufacturing PMI lifted by local government spending; not yet hit by the virus; Japan's job postings still suggest the unemployment rate is unsustainably low; Japan's national inflation has less far to fall than Tokyo's; The coronavirus will delay the return of Japanese retail sales to pre-tax hike levels; Investment goods drive Japan's IP rebound in December; no real support now for consumer goods production; December probably is as good as it will get for Korean industrial production, for now

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs suggest the private sector is recovering ahead of SoEs. China's non-manufacturing PMI again masks construction/services cross currents. Japan's industrial production continues to languish. OK so now Japanese households are front-loading spending. Korean IP corrects from the bumper July; the momentum from the Q2 recovery is waning.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but the rounding is very favourable.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Tax front-loading in full swing

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: The road to recovery begins; we hope.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great headlines, but the details paint a more negative picture.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spared complete embarrassment by resilient services.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly; manufacturing is sinking without a trace.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing still looks terrible, but the remaining headlines are decent.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still ugly.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim; manufacturing enjoyed another "boost" from a tighter supply side.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weak, but not recessionary.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still grim in manufacturing, but services look ok.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust, but not a reliable indicator for GDP growth.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but decent overall.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still holding up better than the rest.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: A setback, but the composite PMI rose over Q3 as a whole.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: A strong rebound from the September swoon.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: The new sick man of Europe.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recession all but confirmed; over to you Berlin.

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: EZ construction is stalling.

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weak, and Q2 as a whole likely will be bleak.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Merde; a slump in net investment and inventories ruined Q4.

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Old news, but great all the same.

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong finish to Q3, but the quarter as a whole was poor.

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Flatlining at the end of a weak quarter.

EZ Datanote: Car Registrations, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid numbers in Germany, but grim elsewhere.

EZ Datanote: Car Registrations, EU 27, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but boosted by base effects.

EZ Datanote: Business Confidence, France, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty in manufacturing; the remaining details were robust.

EZ Datanote: Advance Trade, July: GDP Q2 revised: Jobless Claims (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent July means net foreign trade unlikely to be a big drag on Q3 GDP growth.

EZ Datanote: Car Registrations, EU 27, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: The Eurozone was a bit better than the EU 28, but still poor overall.

EZ Datanote: Car Registrations, EU 27, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly, but mostly mean reversion from a leap in December.

EZ Datanote: Car Registrations, EU 27, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but base effects flatter the headline.

EZ Datanote: Car Registrations, EU 27, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A slow recovery is underway

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Saved by robust services.

EZ Datanote: Business Confidence and Advance PMIs, France, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but still consistent with decent GDP growth.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft; we still don't know what is going on with the core rate.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stable, but the core rate probably fell a bit.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boosted by a jump in energy inflation; more upside ahead in Q1.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Supported by higher food inflation, and a firm core rate.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by a slump in energy inflation; core rate unchanged.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Forget the headline; the core rate fell sharply.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Big rebound in services inflation; non-energy goods inflation is flat-lining.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Easter distortions drove services inflation higher; the core goods CPI is still subdued

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation and Retail Sales, Eurozone, Dec and Nov (Publication Centre)

In one line: EZ inflation is picking up; retail sales look misleadingly strong given base effects in Q4.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Germany, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Poor, but better than we had feared.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Germany, Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Technical recession averted for now; but growth has stalled.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid; manufacturing index likely hit by pension reform strikes.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation and Unemployment, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core inflation is flirting with a break into a new, and higher, range.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Germany, Q2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Germany edges closer to recession.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by the unwinding of Easter-distortions, but still a big dip.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by energy inflation; the core rate is now a wildcard until the virus recedes.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Amber alert.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stabilisation complete; now an upturn?

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Covid-19 finally hits EZ consumer sentiment; worse is to come.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sinking without a trace, but still not recessionary.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Trust the national core rate, and the HICP headline rate.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: The French economy is bucking the trend, to the upside.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft; strength in France and Germany offset by weakness elsewhere.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Settling.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs and Money Supply, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty PMIs; money supply details better than the headline.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: No relief at the start of Q4.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stuck in neutral.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid headlines, but can we trust them?

16 Mar. 2016 Can Yellen Reconcile Lower Dots, Rates on Hold and Rising Inflation? (Publication Centre)

The further improvement in labor market conditions and the jump in core inflation means that the economic data have given the Fed all the excuse it needs to raise rates today. But the chance of a hike is very small, not least because the fed funds future puts the odds of an action today at just 4%, and the Fed has proved itself very reluctant to surprise investors-- at least, in a bad way--in the past.

16 June. 2016 EZ Inflation is in the Twilight Zone, But it Will Get Lighter Soon (Publication Centre)

Final May CPI data in the Eurozone today likely will confirm that inflation pressures edged marginally higher last month. We think inflation increased to -0.1% year-over-year, from -0.2% in April, as a result of slightly higher services inflation, and a reduced drag from falling energy prices.

16 March 2018 Housing Starts and Manufacturing Likely Shone in February (Publication Centre)

Today brings yet another broad array of data, with new information on housing construction, industrial production, consumer sentiment, and job openings.

16 May 2019 Headline EZ GDP and Real M1 Point to a Robust Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data in the EZ provided a little more evidence on what happened in Q1.

16 November 2017 Retail Sales to Surprise to the Downside Again in October (Publication Centre)

The consensus view that today's retail sales data will show volumes increased by 0.2% month-to-month in October is too sanguine.

16 May. 2016 Eurozone GDP Growth is Not Accelerating, Despite Strong Q1 (Publication Centre)

The second round of EZ GDP data on Friday confirmed the resilience of cyclical upturn. Real GDP in the euro area rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, up from 0.3% in Q4, and the fastest pace since the first quarter of last year. But the headline was slightly lower than the initial estimate, 0.6%, and consistent with our forecast before Friday's data.

16 July 2019 Italy's Economy is Still on the Ropes, even as Markets Soar (Publication Centre)

Financial markets and economic data don't always go hand-in-hand, but it is rare to find the divergence presently on display in Italy.

16 May 2018 Better Fundamentals and Fading Political Risk to Support Colombia (Publication Centre)

Colombia's Q1 GDP report confirms that the economy is improving. Leading indicators and survey data suggest that the recovery will continue over the second half of the year.

16 Aug 2019 China is in for a U-Shaped Recovery H2 Activity will remain Tepid (Publication Centre)

China's July activity data pretty categorically wiped out any false hopes of a V-shaped recovery, after the June spike.

16 February 2017 Slowdown in Wage Growth Further Reduces 2017 Rate Hike Chances (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's labour market data delivered a further blow to hopes that consumers' spending will retain enough momentum for the MPC to press ahead and raise interest rates this year. The most striking development is the decline in year-over-year growth in average weekly wages to just 1.9% in December, from 2.9% in November.

16 August 2018 Domestic Demand Strength from Q2 Spilled Over into Early Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's wave of data suggested that a good part of the strength in final demand in the second quarter was sustained into the first month of this quarter, and perhaps the second too.

16 Oct 2019 Core Inflation in France is Rising, but the Devil is in the Detail (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final inflation data in France for September were misleadingly soft.

16 August 2017 China's Credit Conditions Ease, but GDP Slowdown is set to Continue (Publication Centre)

Chinese M1 growth has slowed sharply in the past year from the 25% rates prevailing in the first half of last year. Growth appeared to rebound in July to 15.3% year-over-year, from 15.0% in June. But the rebound looks erratic. Instead, growth has probably slowed slightly less sharply in 2017 than the official data suggest, but the downtrend continues.

16 August 2018 China's Phoenix Property Market Heats... Will it Help GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

It has been clear for some months now that China's housing market is refusing to quit, and July's data showed the phoenix rising strongly from the ashes.

16 Dec. 2014 - Industrial rebound continues, despite the plunging Empire State (Publication Centre)

You'd have to be very brave to take the weakness of yesterday's Empire State survey more seriously than the strong official industrial report published 45 minutes later. The hard data showed industrial production up 1.3% month-to-month, and only two tenths of that gain was explained by the cold weather, which drove up utility energy output.

16 Dec. 2015 Sizzling Growth in the Periphery Lifting EZ Car Registrations (Publication Centre)

Demand for new cars rebounded strongly last month, following the dip in October. Registrations in the EU27 rose 13.7% year-over-year in November, up from 2.9% in October, lifted mainly by buoyant growth in the periphery. New registrations surged 25.4% and 23.4% year-over-year in Spain and Italy respectively, while growth in the core was a more modest 10%. We also see few signs of the VW emissions scandal hitting the aggregate data. VW group sales have weakened, but were still up a respectable 4.1% year-over-year. This pushed the company's market share down marginally compared to last year. But sizzling growth rates for other manufacturers indicate that consumers are simply choosing different brands.

16 Aug 2019 Consumers Aren't Going to Blink as the Brexit Deadline Nears (Publication Centre)

July's retail sales figures--the first official data for Q3--provided a reassuring signal that consumers can be counted on to drive the economy as the Brexit deadline nears.

16 Jan. 2015 Private Consumption Jumped in Brazil in Q4, But Only Temporarily (Publication Centre)

This week's economic activity data for Brazil have been upbeat, indicating that the economy is recovering after a recession in the first half of 2014, but at a very gradual pace.

16 Jan. 2015 - Oil Output is Holding up, but Still Downside Risk for December IP (Publication Centre)

The latest data from the Energy Department show that the feared collapse in U.S. oil production in the wake of the plunge in crude prices has no t started yet. The number of rigs in operation is falling sharply, but our first chart shows it is not yet approaching the collapse seen after the financial crash.

16 December 2016 The Eurozone Manufacturing Sector is Picking up Momentum (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's euro area PMI data continue to tell a story of a firm business cycle upturn. The composite PMI was unchanged at 53.9 in December; an increase in the manufacturing index offset a decline in the services PMI.

16 July 2018 Mr. Duque Inherits a Colombian Economy Firing on all Cylinders (Publication Centre)

Last week's hard data in Colombia were upbeat, confirming that economic growth accelerated in the first half. Retail sales rose 5.9% year-over-year in May, overshooting consensus.

17 Feb. 2016 Brazil Consumers' Spending Fell Yet Again in Q4, but it is Stabilizing (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of Brazil consumers' spending is perhaps beginning to stabilize, though at a very low pace. Core retail sales volumes were flat in Q4 after a 2.7% contraction in Q3, and sentiment data suggest this improving trend should continue, at least in the very near term.

17 July 2017 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Subdued, Oil is Mainly to Blame (Publication Centre)

Upbeat survey data and relatively resilient consumer spending numbers indicate that the Mexican economy is in good shape, despite a marginal slowdown in most of Q2.

17 July 2017 ASF Strength Implies Spiralling Financial Risk, not Strong GDP (Publication Centre)

China's money data, out last week, bode ill for real GDP growth in the second half. June M2 growth dipped to 9.4% year-over-year from 9.6% in May and 10.5% in April.

17 January 2018 Peru's Economy Hit by Temporary Factors in Q4, Will 2018 be Better? (Publication Centre)

Monday's economic activity data from Peru signalled that the gradual recovery continues, despite November's undershoot, which was chiefly driven by temporary factors.

17 January 2018 Depressed Supply Still Favours Relatively Low Bund Yields (Publication Centre)

Reporting on German CPI data has been like watching paint dry in recent months, but that will change in the first half of the year.

17 July 2019 Consumers Leading the Way, but is Manufacturing Close to a Floor (Publication Centre)

We have revised up our second quarter consumption forecast to a startling 4.0% in the wake of yesterday's strong June retail sales numbers, which were accompanied by upward revisions to prior data.

17 May 2018 Labor Market Indicators are Contradictory, Which to Trust? (Publication Centre)

Some of the recent labor market data appear contradictory. For example, the official JOLTS measure of the number of job openings has spiked to an all-time high, and the number of openings is now greater than the number of unemployed people, for the first time since the data series begins, in 2001.

17 June. 2015 Mind The Gap Between Inflation and Cyclical Indicators in The EZ (Publication Centre)

Final German inflation data for May confirm that price pressures are gradually recovering in the Eurozone. Inflation rose to 0.7% in May, up from 0.5% in April, in line with the initial estimate. Headline inflation continues to move higher, a trend which will continue in the second half of the year as base effects push up energy inflation.

17 Mar. 2015 Plunging Temperatures Boost Utilities, Depress Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

The February industrial production numbers were flattered by an enormous 7.3% jump in the output of electricity and gas utility companies, thanks to a surge in demand in the face of the extraordinarily cold weather. February this year was the coldest since at least 1997, when comparable data on population weighted heating degree days begin.

17 June 2019 China's Economy Faltered in May the New Tariff Hit is yet to Come (Publication Centre)

China's activity data for May were a mixed bag, but they broadly paint a consistent picture of a slowdown in economic growth from the first quarter.

16 April 2018 Headline Inflation Germany is Rising, but What About the Core? (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data confirmed that inflation in Germany rebounded last month, and leading indicators suggest that it is headed higher in coming months.

17 January 2017 Will Brexit and Mr. Trump Dent EZ Exports to the U.S. and the U.K? (Publication Centre)

Net exports in the euro area likely rebounded in Q4. The headline EZ trade surplus rose to €22.7B in November from €19.7B in October. Exports jumped 3.3% month-to-month, primarily as a result of strong data in Germany and France, offsetting a 1.8% rise in imports. Over Q4 as a whole, we are confident that net exports gave a slight boost to eurozone GDP growth, adding 0.1 percentage points to quarter-on-quarter growth.

17 January 2017 Peru's Growth is Solid, Will Copper Prices Offer More Support in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic activity data from Peru signalled that the relatively firm business cycle continues. The monthly GDP index accelerated to 3.6% year-over-year in November, rising from 2.1% in October, but marginally below the 4.4% on average in Q3. Growth continued to be driven by mining output, including oil and gas, which rose 15% year-over- year. The opening of several new mines explains the upturn, and we expect the sector to remain key for the Peruvian economy this year.

16 September 2016 Evidence of a Slowdown in EZ New Car Sales is Mounting (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data on EZ car sales added to the evidence that consumers' spending is slowing. We now reckon sales will rise by 1% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, after gains averaging 2.6% in the first half of the year.

16 Sept. 2015 Will Downbeat Sentiment Push the ECB into More QE this Year? (Publication Centre)

Economic data are telling a story of a strengthening recovery, but downbeat investor sentiment points to a more difficult environment. The headline ZEW expectations index fell to a ten-month low of 12.1 in September, from 25.0 in August. This takes sentiment back to levels not seen before QE was announced, highlighting the increasing worry that deflation risks and low growth in China will derail the recovery. We don't agree, but we can't be sure the ECB thinks the same, and risks of additional stimulus this year have increased.

16 Sept 2019 Argentina's Inflation Edged Up in August, Expect Further Bad News (Publication Centre)

Data released last week in Argentina reaffirm that President Macri remains in a challenging position ahead of the October 27 presidential election.

16 October 2017 What has to Happen for Bund Yields to Reach 1% Next Year? (Publication Centre)

German 10-year government bond yields jumped at the end of 2016, but have since been locked in a tight range around 0.4%, despite a steady inflow of strong economic data.

16 September. 2016 Something Bad Happened to Industry in August, Will it Last? (Publication Centre)

We have not been expecting the Fed to raise rates next week, and yesterday's data made a hike even less likely. The September Philly Fed and Empire State surveys were alarmingly weak everywhere except the headline level, and the official August production data were grim.

17 April 2018 Brazil's Economy will Improve in Q2, but it Faces Rising Political Risk (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators and survey data in Brazil still suggest a rebound from the relatively soft GDP growth late last year and in Q1.

17 Feb. 2015 The Eurozone's trade surplus is surging, and more upside ahead (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's trade data showed that the Eurozone's external balance continues to improve markedly. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus in the euro area rose to €23.3B in December, a new all-time high, from a revised €21.6B in November.

17 Feb. 2015 Falling Goods Prices Do Not Signal Broader U.S. Deflation Risk (Publication Centre)

Last week's import price data, showing prices excluding fuels and food fell in January for the fourth month, support our view that the goods component of the CPI is set to drop sharply this year.

17 Dec. 2015 Core Inflation Lags the Economy, and Will Increase Next Year (Publication Centre)

Eurozone inflation continued its slow rebound last month. Final CPI data showed that inflation rose marginally to 0.2% in November from 0.1% in October, a bit higher than the initial estimate of 0.1%. The upward revision was due to marginally higher services inflation at 1.2%, compared to the initial 1.1% estimate. Non-energy goods inflation eased slightly to 0.5% from 0.6% last month. We have received push-back on our call for higher inflation next year, but core inflation is a lagging indicator, and it can rise independently of the story told by GDP or survey data. Core inflation tends to peak during recessions, and only starts falling later as prices are adjusted downwards, with a lag, to the cyclical downturn.

17 April 2018 China will Loosen the Macropru by Year-end, for now, it's Intense (Publication Centre)

China's March money and credit data, published last Friday, showed that conditions continue to tighten, posing a threat to GDP growth this year.

16 Oct. 2015 No Signs of Recovery in Brazil's Domestic Demand (Publication Centre)

Brazil's retail sales plunged in August, falling 0.9% month-to-month--the seventh consecutive contraction -- and with a net revision of -0.6%. The broad retail index, which includes vehicles and construction materials, dropped 2.0% month-to-month, the biggest fall this year, due mainly to a 5.2% collapse in auto sales, reversing July's unexpected increase. In annual terms, headline sales fell by an eye-popping 6.9% in August, after the downwardly-revised 3.9% drop in July. In short, the sales data show that consumers are suffering. They will struggle for some time yet.

15 Feb. 2016 Stronger CPI Figures to Dispel Fears of Ingrained Deflation (Publication Centre)

January's consumer price data, released tomorrow, look set to reveal a third consecutive rise in CPI inflation, dampening speculation that the U.K. is stuck in a deflationary funk. Indeed, we think CPI inflation picked up to 0.4%, from 0.2% in December, above the consensus, 0.3%.

15 Dec. 2015 Core CPI Inflation to Hit 2% for the First Time Since May 2014 (Publication Centre)

Falling gas prices will make themselves felt in the November CPI data today, with a likely 4% seasonally adjusted decline enough to subtract 0.2% from the month-to-month change in the headline index. But gas prices plunged by 7.2% in November last year, so in year-over-year terms gas prices will push aggregate headline inflation up. We look for the rate to rise to 0.4%, up from 0.2% in October and zero in September. The same story will play out in January and February too, by which time the headline rate should have risen to 1¼%, assuming a crude oil price of about $35 per barrel.

15 August 2017 Time for a Rebound in Core Retail Sales A er Unexpected So ness (Publication Centre)

No matter how you choose to slice-and-dice the recent retail sales numbers, the core data for the past couple of months have been disappointing. Our favorite measure--total sales less autos, gasoline, food and building materials--rose by just 0.1% month-to- month in May but then reversed this minimal gain in June.

15 August 2017 The German Economy Fired on All Cylinders in the First Half of 2017 (Publication Centre)

Today's advance Q2 GDP report in Germany will add evidence that the EZ economy performed strongly in the first half of 2017. We can be pretty sure that the headline will be robust. The German statistical office reports a confidential number to Eurostat for the first estimate of EZ GDP--two weeks ahead of today's data--which was a solid 0.6%.

15 Aug 2019 Germany's Economy is in Trouble, but the EZ as a Whole is Stable (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data showed that growth in the EZ slowed in the second quarter.

15 Dec. 2015 Dip in Wage Growth Hasn't Lessened the Pressure on the MPC (Publication Centre)

Investors kicked expectations for the first rise in official interest rates even further into the future when last month's labour market data, revealing a sharp fall in wage growth, were released. But a closer look at the official figures reveals that labour cost pressures have remained robust, cautioning against making a snap reaction if even weaker wage data are released on Wednesday.

15 December 2016 EZ Manufacturing will Recover Quickly from its Poor Start to Q4 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone manufacturers had an underwhelming start to Q4. Data yesterday showed that production fell 0.1% month-to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.6%, from a revised 1.3% in September. Output was constrained mostly by weakness in France and a big month-to-month fall in Ireland, which offset marginal gains in Germany and Spain.

15 January 2018 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Unresponsive, but Q1 Will be Better (Publication Centre)

Upbeat survey data, a competitive MXN, and the strong U.S. manufacturing sector indicate that Mexican industry should be rebounding.

15 Jan. 2016 Downside Risk for December Retail Sales and Industrial Output (Publication Centre)

After a very light week for economic data so far, everything changes today, with an array of reports on both activity and inflation. We expect headline weakness across the board, with downside risks to consensus for the December retail sales and industrial production numbers, and the January Empire State survey and Michigan consumer sentiment. The damage will b e done by a combination of falling oil prices, very warm weather, relative to seasonal norms, and the stock market.

15 February 2017 Poor Brazilian Retail Sales don't Change the Improving Trend (Publication Centre)

Brazil's consumer spending data yesterday appeared downbeat. Retail sales fell 2.1% month-to-month in December, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 4.9%, from -3.8% in November. This is a poor looking headline, but volatility is normal in these data at this time of the year, and the underlying trend is improving.

15 Feb. 2016 Upbeat Q4 GDP Headline, but Private Demand Likely Slowed (Publication Centre)

Eurozone GDP data last Friday suggest the cyclical recovery continued at the end of last year. Real GDP in euro area rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the same as in Q3, lifted by growth in all the major economies. This was in line with the consensus forecast, but noticeably higher than implied by monthly industrial production and retail sales data.

15 April 2019 And Breathe Chinese Monetary Conditions are Loosening (Publication Centre)

In the last two months, we have suggested that monetary conditions have turned the corner, but have cautioned that Lunar New Year distortions make the March data critically important.

15 Apr. 2016 Downside Risk to March Output, but Worst is Over - Gains Ahead (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the uptick in the March ISM manufacturing survey, we think today's official production data for the same month are likely to disappoint. Our model of the month-to-month output numbers incorporates the ISM data, but it is substantially driven by manufacturing hours worked, which fell in both February and March.

17 May 2019 Brazil's Economy Faltered in Q1 a Flimsy Upturn is in Prospect (Publication Centre)

Economic data released on Wednesday underscored that Brazil was struggling at the end of the first quarter, strengthening our case that Q1 GDP fell 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, the first contraction since Q4 2016.

14 Oct. 2015 Ignore Falling Energy Prices, and Focus on Core Inflation in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Collapsing energy prices continue to weigh on the headline inflation rate in the Eurozone's largest economy. Final September CPI data in Germany confirmed that inflation fell to 0.0% year-over-year from 0.2%, due to a 9.3% plunge in energy prices -- down from a 7.6% fall in August--mainly a result of a collapse in petrol price inflation. This comfortably offset an increase in food inflation to 1.1% from 0.8%, due to surging vegetable and fruit prices.

14 Nov 2019 Healthcare Inflation is Gathering Steam How Far will it Rise (Publication Centre)

It's hard to know what to make of the October CPI data, which recorded hefty increases in healthcare costs and used car prices but a huge drop in hotel room rates, and big decline in apparel prices, and inexplicable weakness in rents.

14 May. 2015 Core Retail Sales Aren't Bad, but They Aren't Good, Either--Yet (Publication Centre)

So, what should we make of the fourth straight disappointment in the retail sales numbers? First, we should note that all is probably not how it seems. The 0.2% upward revision to March sales was exactly equal to the difference between the consensus forecast and the initial estimate, neatly illustrating the danger of over-interpreting the first estimates of the data.

14 Oct. 2015 Soaring Auto Sales Should Offset Yet Another Gas Price Hit (Publication Centre)

After last week's relatively light flow of data, today brings a wave of information on both the pace of economic growth and inflation. The markets' attention likely will fall first on the September retail sales numbers, which will be subject to at least three separate forces. First, the jump in auto sales reported by the manufacturers a couple of weeks ago ought to keep the headline sales numbers above water.

14 Oct. 2015 Stable Manufacturing, but External Risks Are Still Present (Publication Centre)

Mexican industrial production data for August were a little stronger-than-expected. Output rose 1.0% year-over-year, for the second consecutive month, and marginally higher than the 0.6% average growth in the second quarter. The rise in production in August is encouraging, especially the strong manufacturing component, which accounts for about half of all output.

15 Apr. 2016 Chile's Central Bank Holds Rates and Relaxes its Tightening Bias (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank left rates unchanged on Tuesday for the fourth consecutive month, as recent data confirmed the sluggish pace of the economic recovery and inflation edges down closer to the target range. In the statement accompanying the decision, the BCCh kept its tightening bias, saying that the normalisation of monetary policy needs to continue at a data-dependent pace, in order to achieve its 3% target.

15 Apr. 2015 Plunging utility output and oil well-drilling to depress March IP (Publication Centre)

The combination of weather effects and the meltdown in the oil sector make it very hard to spot the underlying trend in manufacturing activity. The sudden collapse in oil-related capital spending likely is holding down production of equipment, but the data don't provide sufficient detail to identify the hit with any precision.

14 September. 2016 Brazil's Soft July Retail Sales Don't Change the Improving Trend (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian consumer will continue to suffer from high interest rates and a deteriorating labour market this year. But sentiment data imply that the fundamentals are stabilising, at least at the margin. The headline consumer sentiment gauge, published by the FGV, has improved significantly in the past five months, and we expect another modest increase later this month

14 Sept. 2015 Italy's Structural Problems Persist, but Cyclical Upturn is Firming (Publication Centre)

Italy's long-term challenges--chiefly, structurally high government debt and deteriorating demographics--remain daunting, but the cyclical picture is improving steadily. Final GDP data last week revealed that growth in the first half of the year was 0.2% better than initially estimated, taking the annualised growth rate to 1.4%, the highest in five years. This is the first sign of a durable business cycle upturn since the sovereign debt crisis crashed the economy in 2012.

15 January 2019 Mexican Capex Improved Slightly in Early Q4, but Uncertainty is a Drag (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday showed that gross fixed investment in Mexico started Q4 on a decent note, increasing on the back of healthy purchases of imported machinery and equipment and construction spending.

15 July 2019 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Subdued Banxico to Cut Soon (Publication Centre)

Downbeat sectoral data and weakening consumer spending numbers indicate that the Mexican economy remains in bad shape.

15 November. 2016 Mexico's Benign Industrial Outlook Clouded by the U.S. Policy Agenda (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest industrial production data were worse than we expected. Output rose just 0.1% month-to-month in September, pushing the year- over-year rate down to -1.3%, from a downwardly revised +0.2% in August.

15 November. 2016 EZ GDP Growth Likely was Stable in Q3, in Line With First Estimate (Publication Centre)

Investors face a busy EZ calendar today, but the second estimate of Q3 GDP, and the advance GDP data in Germany, likely will receive most attention. Yesterday's industrial production report in the Eurozone was soft, but it won't force a downward GDP revision, as we had feared.

15 May. 2015 Oil Still Depressing Industrial Production (Publication Centre)

The consequences of the collapse in oil prices continue to reverberate through the sector. The number of rigs in operation is still falling rapidly, but the rate of decline is slowing. According to data from Baker Hughes, Inc., an average of 23 rigs per week have ceased operation over the past four weeks, the slowest decline since December.

15 May 2019 German Core Inflation Jumped Way Above Trend in April (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's inflation data in Germany were old news to markets, but the details were spectacular all the same.

15 Oct 2019 Brazil's Modest Recovery Continues, Peru's Central Bank to Cut Soon (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday from Brazil support our view that the economic recovery continues, but progress has been slow.

15 Oct. 2015 Investment Likely Rebounded in Q3, but No Change in Weak Trend (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report was poor, but the headline was better than we, and the market, feared. Output fell 0.5% month-to-month in August, but the July data were revised up 0.2%, pushing the year over-year rate--using the seasonally- and working day-adjusted index--higher to 1.9% from 1.4% in July. Bloomberg reported the year-over-year rate fell to 0.9% from 1.7% in July, but they used an index which is only working day-adjusted.

15 September. 2016 Will September's Regional Surveys Follow the ISM's Drop? (Publication Centre)

Today's huge wall of data will add significantly to our understanding of third quarter economic growth, with new information on consumers' spending, industrial activity, inflation and business sentiment. In light of the unexpected drop in the ISM surveys in August, we are very keen to see the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys for September.

15 September 2017 Chinese Consumption and Investment is Weakening in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The Chinese activity data published yesterday were much weaker than expected; growth rates fell resoundingly. Did analysts really get it wrong, or is this just another example of erratic Chinese data?

15 Sept. 2015 Subdued EZ Manufacturing is in Line with the Rest of the OECD (Publication Centre)

Industrial production data yesterday indicate manufacturers in the Eurozone enjoyed a decent start to Q3, thanks to strength in Germany, Italy and Spain, which offset weakness in France. Production ex-construction rose 0.6% month-to-month in July, boosted in part by a 3% jump in energy output. If production is unchanged in August and September, output will rise 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, but this estimate is uncertain, and we look for an increase of about 0.4%-to-0.5%.

15 Sept. 2015 August Retail Sales "Soft" Again? But the Real Story is Different (Publication Centre)

Today's wave of data will be mixed, but most of the headlines are likely to be on the soft side, so the reports are very unlikely to trigger a wave of last minute defections to the hawkish side of the FOMC. As always, though, the headlines don't necessarily capture the underlying story, and that's certainly been the case with the retail sales data this year. Plunging prices for gas and imported goods, especially audio-video items, have driven down the rate of growth of nominal retail sales, but real sales have performed much better.

15 May 2017 Mexican Manufacturing set to Remain Resilient in Q2 and Q3 (Publication Centre)

Recent industrial data for Mexico point to renewed upside risks for GDP growth, despite the likely headwind to consumption from high inflation and depressed confidence.

15 May 2017 The Jump in Q1 German GDP Growth Likely Overstates the Trend (Publication Centre)

The German economy fired on all cylinders at the beginning of the year. Advance data on Friday showed that real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, accelerating from a 0.4% increase in Q4.

15 June 2017 Yellen to Markets: Core Inflation is Noisy, the Labor Market is the Key (Publication Centre)

The Fed's action, statement, and forecasts, and Chair Yellen's press conference, made it very clear the Fed is torn between the dovish signals from the recent core inflation data, and the much more hawkish message coming from the rapid decline in the unemployment rate.

15 June 2017 Core Inflation Pressures in Germany are Rising, Slowly (Publication Centre)

German inflation eased in May, but the underlying upward pressure on the core is increasing. Yesterday's data showed that inflation fell to 1.5% year-over-year in May, from 2.0% in April, as the boost from the late Easter reversed. Inflation in leisure and entertainment services was driven down to +0.8%, from +3.3% in April, as a result of sharply lower inflation in package holidays and airfares.

15 July. 2016 The Mexican Economy is at the Mercy of Softening Spending (Publication Centre)

Industrial data released this week showed that the Mexican economy stumbled during the second quarter. Private consumption, however, continues to rise, albeit at a more modest pace than in recent months. The ANTAD same store sales survey rose 5.3% year-over-year in June, up from 2.8% in May, but this is misleading.

15 July. 2016 Autos Will Depress Headline June Spending, Core Picture is Fine (Publication Centre)

When the dust settles after today's wave of data, we expect to have learned that core retail sales continued to rise in June, core inflation nudged back up to its cycle high, and manufacturing output rebounded after an auto-led drop in May. None of these reports will be enough to push the Fed into early action, but they will add to the picture of a reasonably solid domestic economy ahead of the U.K. Brexit referendum.

15 June 2018. Will Private Consumption in Brazil Continue to be the Key Driver in H2 (Publication Centre)

Private consumption remains resilient in Brazil and recent data suggest that growth will continue over the coming months.

15 Mar. 2016 Downside Risk for Retail Sales, but Real Consumption is What Counts (Publication Centre)

This week's wave of data starts today, but most of the attention will fall on just one report, February retail sales. We expect weak-looking numbers, thanks to the plunge in gas prices, which likely will subtract some 0.6% from the non-auto sales number.

15 March 2019 We are Still Looking for the Real German Core CPI Inflation Rate (Publication Centre)

Inflation data in Germany remain up in the air following recent revisions and restatements of the underlying indices.

15 March 2018 Old-Guard Industry gets a Q1 Reprieve, but it's Temporary (Publication Centre)

Industrial production bounced back in February. These data point to a reprieve for old-guard dirty industry, after stringent anti-pollution curbs were put in place in Q4.

15 March 2017 Headline Inflation in Germany will Ease in the Next Few Months (Publication Centre)

The German inflation rate soared at the start of 2017, but it likely will fall in the next few months. Final February data yesterday showed that inflation rose to 2.2% in February, from 1.9% in January, consistent with the initial estimate. Since December, headline inflation in Germany, and in the EZ as a whole, has been lifted by two factors. Base effects from the 2016 crash in oil prices have pushed energy inflation higher, and a supply shock in fresh produce--due to heavy snowfall in southern Europe--has lifted food inflation.

16 Apr. 2015 Manufacturing constrained by the Oil capex collapse (Publication Centre)

More evidence emerged yesterday of the fading impact of the severe winter on the data, in the form of the strength of the NAHB survey and the weakness of the headline industrial production number.

2 August 2018 The Door for a Bank of Korea Rate Hike in August Closes Further (Publication Centre)

The past two days have seen a slew of data that should keep the hawks in the Bank of Korea at bay during the Board's meeting at the end of this month.

2 Dec. 2014 - Eurozone Manufacturing Sector Unlikely to Recover in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The PMI survey continues to send a downbeat message on growth in the euro area despite signs of improvement in other sentiment data: The final manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone fell to 50.1 in November from 50.6 in October.

2 Dec 2019 EZ Core Inflation is Rising, but It Probably Overshot in November (Publication Centre)

The key detail in Friday's barrage of economic data was the above-consensus increase in EZ inflation.

2 August 2017 Inflation to Erode Chinese Demand in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI rebounded to 51.1 in July from 50.4 in June, soundly beating the consensus for no change. The PMIs are seasonally adjusted but the data are much less volatile on our adjustment model. On our adjustment, the headline has averaged 50.9 so far this year, modestly higher than in the second half of last year.

19 September 2017 Four Reasons Why the MPC Likely Will Procrastinate in November (Publication Centre)

For the record, we think the Fed should raise rates in December, given the long lags in monetary policy and the clear strength in the economy, especially the labor market, evident in the pre-hurricane data.

2 December 2016 Copom is Still Cautious but Hints at Larger Cuts, BRL Permitting (Publication Centre)

Copom's meeting was the focal point this week in Brazil. The committee eased by 25bp for the second straight meeting, leaving the Selic rate at 13.75%, and it opened the door for larger cuts in Q1. Rates sat at 14.25% for 15 months before the first cut, in October. In this week's post-meeting statement, policymakers identified weak economic activity data, the disinflation process--actual and expectations--and progress on the fiscal front as the forces that prompted the rate cut.

2 December. 2016 Friendly Seasonals Set to Push Payrolls Back Above 200K? (Publication Centre)

Our payroll model, which incorporates survey data as well as the error term from our ADP forecast, points to a hefty 225K increase in November employment. We have tweaked the forecast to the upside because of the tendency in recent years for the fourth quarter numbers to be stronger than the prior trend, as our first chart shows.

2 Jan 2020 Bad Omens for Q4 Consumers' Spending Growth in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Data on EZ consumption were soft while we were enjoying our Christmas break. The advance EC consumer confidence index slipped to a three-year low of -8.1 in December, from -7.2 in November, breaking its recent tight range.

2 Jan 2020 The Post-Tariffs Plunge in Imports Continues, but not Forever (Publication Centre)

While were out over the holidays, the single biggest surprise in the data was yet another drop in imports, reported in the advance trade numbers for November.

2 February 2017 Greece is another EZ risk to contend with this year (Publication Centre)

The Greek economy escaped recession in the second half of last year. Real GDP rose a cumulative 1.2% in Q2 and Q3, following a 0.6% fall in Q1. And industrial production and retail sales data suggest that the advance GDP report released later this month will show that the momentum was sustained in Q4. Headline survey data, however, indicate that downside risks to the economy remain.

2 Feb. 2015 Will core inflation push the ECB to do even more QE this year? (Publication Centre)

The ECB moved ahead of the curve this month with its QE program of €60B per month, starting in March. But still-abysmal inflation data will prompt journalists to ask Mr. Draghi, at the next ECB meeting, about the conditions under which the central bank plans to do more.

19 September 2017 Colombia's Economy Finally Hits Bottom, but Recovery will be Slow (Publication Centre)

Colombian activity data released this last week were upbeat, better than we expected, showing a significant pickup in manufacturing output and improving retail sales. Retail sales rose 3.1% year- over-year, after a modest 1.0% increase in June.

19 September 2016 Construction Investment Will Boost EZ GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Construction data in the Eurozone usually don't attract much attention, but today's July report will provide encouraging news, compared with recent poor manufacturing data. We think construction output leapt 2.1% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 2.3%, from 0.7% in June. This strong start to the third quarter was due mainly to a jump in non-residential building activity in France and Germany.

19 June. 2015 The Eurozone's External Surplus will be the World's Biggest, Soon (Publication Centre)

Solid trade data for April indicate a strong start to Q2 for the Eurozone's external balance, though a €3.2B fall in German net factor income will weigh on the primary income number.

19 July. 2016 Domestic Demand is Slowing in Colombia - Rate Cuts Soon? (Publication Centre)

Markets are reacting to Colombia's disappointing activity figures, released Friday, by pulling forward expectations for the country's first rate cut to December. The data certainly looked weak--especially upon close examination--and we expect growth to slow further. But we think that inflation is still too high to expect rate cuts this year.

19 July 2017 Falling CPI Physicians Fees are a Response to Rising Part B Premiums (Publication Centre)

The closer we look at the data, the more convinced we become that the rollover in CPI physicians' services prices, which has subtracted nearly 0.1% from core CPI inflation since January, is a response to sharply higher Medicare part B premiums, especially for new enrollees.

19 Jan. 2016 Services Will Push up German Core Inflation this Year (Publication Centre)

Detailed German inflation data today likely will confirm that inflation fell to 0.3% year-over-year in December from 0.4% in November, mainly due to falling food inflation. Preliminary data suggest that food inflation declined sharply to 1.4% from 2.3% in November, offsetting slower energy price deflation, due to base effects. Food and energy prices are wild cards in the next three-to-six months, and could weigh on the headline, given the renewed weakness in oil prices, and lower fresh food prices. Core inflation, however, is a lagging indicator, and will continue to increase this year.

19 May. 2016 EZ Construction is Recovering, but Output Likely Will Slow in Q2 (Publication Centre)

The construction sector in the Eurozone probably stumbled in March. Advance data for the major economies suggest that output fell 1.2% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.6% from 2.4% in February.

19 May. 2016 Fed on Course to Hike, Soon, but Will Brexit Risk Forestall June? (Publication Centre)

The April FOMC minutes don't mince words: "Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June".

19 Sept 2019 EZ Headline and Core Inflation to Rebound Firmly Into Year-End (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed CPI data for August confirmed that inflation in the Eurozone stayed subdued over the summer.

19 October. 2016 EZ Construction Fell in August, but Q3 as a Whole Was Solid (Publication Centre)

We think the EZ construction industry stuttered in August, following a strong start to Q3. Advance data from Germany, France and Spain suggest that output fell 1.4% month-to-month, pushing the year-over- year rate down to 1.8%, from a revised 3.1% in July.

19 October. 2016 Consumers Still Under Strain in Brazil, but Rate Cuts will Help (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's retail sales data in Brazil surprised to the downside. Consumers are still being squeezed by high interest rates and a deteriorating labour market. Retail sales declined 0.6% month-to-month in August, leaving the year-over-year rate little changed at -5.5%.

19 Nov. 2015 A Rebound in Construction Could Lift Investment in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The construction sector in the Eurozone remains moribund. Output fell 0.4% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.8% from a revised 1.4% fall in August. Declines were recorded in France, Germany, and Italy, with a small increase in Spain. These data could, in theory, lead to revisions in the final Q3 Eurozone GDP data released December 8th, but we very much doubt they will move the needle. Our first chart shows the relationship between construction and GDP growth has broken down since the crisis.

2 January 2018 BoJ: Chinese Profit Story Deteriorates Amid Surprisingly Robust PMIs (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs paint a picture of robust momentum going into 2018 but we find this difficult to reconcile with the other data.

2 January 2018 While we Were Out... (Publication Centre)

Most of the data were consistent with the idea that fourth quarter growth will be a two-part story, with real strength in domestic final demand partly offset by substantial drags from net foreign trade and inventories.

20 Aug 2019 Weak Growth and Low Inflation in Mexico More Rate Cuts Ahead (Publication Centre)

While we were on holiday, the data confirmed that inflation in Mexico is rapidly unwinding the increases posted earlier in the year; that the economy was under severe strain in late Q2 and early Q3; and that the near-term outlook has grown increasingly challenging.

2 September. 2016 German Manufacturing is Doing Well, but Others are Struggling (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ PMIs imply that growth in manufacturing slowed marginally in August. The PMI fell to 51.7, from 52.0 in July, trivially below the initial estimate, 51.8. Output and new orders growth declined, pushing down the pace of new job growth. But we think the hard data for industrial production in Q3 as a whole will be decent.