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25 matches for " crude oil":

20 Apr. 2016 Capex Growth Will Mean-Revert As the Drop in Oil Spending Ends (Publication Centre)

As we're writing, the price of U.S. crude oil is only about 50 cents per barrel lower than on Thursday, when markets began to anticipate an OPEC deal to cut production over the weekend. The failure of the Doha talks generated an initial sharp drop in oil prices, but the damage now is very limited, as our first chart shows.

29 August 2017 Hurricane Harvey will Depress September Output and Payrolls (Publication Centre)

The terrible scenes from Texas will play out in the economic data over the next few weeks.

29 July 2019 The MPC Won't Provide Meaningful Policy Signals this Side of Brexit (Publication Centre)

The MPC won't seek to make waves on Thursday.

25 May 2018 Aircraft Likely Drove up April Durable Goods Orders, Core Softer? (Publication Centre)

We see significant upside risk to today's headline durable goods orders numbers for April.

23 October 2018 Business Surveys have Flattened Richmond Fed due to Correct (Publication Centre)

All the regional PMIs and Fed business surveys are volatile in the short-term, so observations for single months need to be viewed with due skepticism.

23 November 2018 Lower Oil Prices are Another Tailwind for 2019 (Publication Centre)

The recent plunge in oil prices is another positive development, alongside looser fiscal policy and the striking of a Brexit deal with the E.U., pointing to scope for GDP growth to pick up next year.

3 October 2018 Mixed Activity Data in Brazil Ahead of a Contested Presidential Election (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial production surprised to the downside in August, suggesting that manufacturing is struggling to gather momentum over the second half of the year.

4 March 2019 The EZ Core CPI Rate Remains Motionless at About 1% (Publication Centre)

Last week's final barrage of data showed that EZ headline inflation rose slightly last month, by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5%, driven mainly by increases in the unprocessed food energy components.

9 May 2018 Chinese Import Growth is Flattered by Price Effects (Publication Centre)

China's trade data looked more normal in April. The trade balance rebounded to a surplus of $28.8B in April, from a deficit of $5.0B in March. Exports also bounced back, rising 12.9% year-over-year in April, after a 2.7% decline in March.

5 October 2017 The PMIs Show Economic Growth Momentum Still Fading (Publication Centre)

The latest PMIs indicate that the economy remained listless in Q3, undermining the case for a rate rise before the end of this year. The business activity index of the Markit/CIPS services survey rose trivially to 53.6 in September, from 53.2 in August.

5 June 2019 EZ Inflation will Fall Further in Q3 but the Core Rate will Rebound (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone tumbled last month, increasing the pressure on Mr. Draghi to deliver another dovish message when the central bank meets on Thursday.

5 February 2019 Economic and Inflation Conditions Remain Benign in the Andes (Publication Centre)

Colombia's BanRep stuck to the script on Thursday by leaving the policy rate on hold at 4.25%.

22 Mar. 2016 The Upturn in Core Inflation is Real - Don't Focus on the Noise (Publication Centre)

We pointed out in yesterday's Monitor that Fed Chair Yellen appears to be putting a good deal of faith in the idea that the recent upturn in core inflation is temporary. She argued that "some" of the increase reflects "unusually high readings in categories that tend to be quite volatile without very much significance for inflation over time".

21 November 2018 Commodity Prices Struggle in the Trade War Will LatAm be Resilient (Publication Centre)

The sharp downtrend in commodity prices in recent months is alarming from a LatAm perspective.

11 January 2019 Downside Risk to December's CPI Watch Used Auto Prices Airline Fares (Publication Centre)

The CPI report due today will be released on schedule, because the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the data, remains open during the partial government shutdown.

11 February 2019 Net Exports Probably Boosted German GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

German exports flatlined for most of 2018, driving the trade surplus down by 7.3% amid still-solid growth in imports.

11 Apr. 2016 Stronger Growth and Accelerating Wages Will Shift Rate Sentiment (Publication Centre)

A reader sent us last week a series of five simple feedback loops, all of which ended with the Fed remaining "cautious". For example, in a scenario in which the dollar strengthens--perhaps because of stronger U.S. economic data--markets see an increased risk of a Chinese devaluation, which then pummels EM assets, making the Fed nervous about global growth risks to the domestic economy.

13 Aug 2019 Risks to the Consensus for July CPI Inflation are Skewed to the Downside (Publication Centre)

We expect July's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, to reveal that CPI inflation dropped to 1.8% in July, from 2.0% in June.

11 September 2018 The Trade Wars are Neutral in China's Trade Surplus, so far (Publication Centre)

At the time of writing, Mr. Trump reportedly is finalising plans to impose tariffs of up to 25% on a further $200B of imports from China.

20 December 2018 CPI Inflation will be Below the 2% Target Right from the Start of 2019 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation fell to 2.3% in November--its lowest rate since March 2017--from 2.4% in October, and it remains on track to fall rapidly over the winter.

2 July 2018 Eurozone Inflation to Rise Further, Above 2%, Over the Summer? (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone increased slightly last month, and probably will rise a bit more in coming months.

17 October 2017 The rebound in EZ trade surplus is ruse (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report showed that the Eurozone's external surplus recovered ground over the summer, but we don't think the rebound will last long.

30 July. 2015 Ignore Volatile Commodity Prices, and Focus on Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Volatile commodity prices make this week's inflation data in Germany and the Eurozone a wild card. Crude oil in euro terms is down about 20% month-to-month in July, which will weigh on energy prices. In Germany, though, we think higher core inflation offset the hit from oil, pushing inflation slightly higher to 0.4% year-over-year in July from 0.3% in June.

6 Jan. 2015 - How Will the Fed React to Sub- Zero Headline Inflation in Q2? (Publication Centre)

The latest drop in crude oil prices me ans that sub-zero headline CPI inflation in the spring is now more likely than not. We expect a lurch down from November's 1.3% to 0.7% in December, then 0.3% in January. The rate will remain close to that level for the next few months before hitting zero in May and slipping into negative territory--just--in June and July.

15 Dec. 2015 Core CPI Inflation to Hit 2% for the First Time Since May 2014 (Publication Centre)

Falling gas prices will make themselves felt in the November CPI data today, with a likely 4% seasonally adjusted decline enough to subtract 0.2% from the month-to-month change in the headline index. But gas prices plunged by 7.2% in November last year, so in year-over-year terms gas prices will push aggregate headline inflation up. We look for the rate to rise to 0.4%, up from 0.2% in October and zero in September. The same story will play out in January and February too, by which time the headline rate should have risen to 1ΒΌ%, assuming a crude oil price of about $35 per barrel.

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