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23 matches for " core pce deflator":

31 May 2019 The Rebound in the Core PCE Deflator Likely Started in April (Publication Centre)

The biggest surprise in the revisions to first quarter GDP growth, released yesterday, was in the core PCE deflator.

1 March 2018 Don't Extrapolate Januarys Core PCE Deflator (Publication Centre)

All eyes today will be on the core PCE deflator for January, following the unexpectedly large 0.3% increase in the core CPI.

28 June 2019 Downside Risk for the core PCE Deflator, Again, Expect H2 Rebound (Publication Centre)

The downshift in core PCE inflation this year has unnerved the Fed, along with the intensification of the trade war and slower global growth.

30 April 2019 Three Soft Core PCE Deflator Numbers Don't Make a Trend (Publication Centre)

It's pretty easy to spin a story that the recent core PCE numbers represent a sharp and alarming turn south.

30 October 2018 Airline Fares Lifted September's Core PCE Deflator Noise not Signal (Publication Centre)

The modest overshoot to consensus in September's core PCE deflator won't trouble any lists of great economic surprises, but it did serve to demonstrate that the PCE can diverge from the CPI, in both the short and medium-term.

26 July 2019 The Inevitable Q2 Slowdown Leaves H1 Growth at 21⁄2%, at the Trend (Publication Centre)

We're nudging down our estimate of Q2 GDP growth, due today, by 0.3 percentage points to 1.8%, in the wake of yesterday's array of data.

22 July 2019 The Fed's Friday Pushback Against 50bp Makes Sense it's Too Much (Publication Centre)

With Fed officials now in pre-FOMC meeting blackout mode, this week will not bring a repeat of Friday's confusion, when the New York Fed felt obligated to issue a clarification following president William's speech on monetary policy close to the zero bound.

20 December 2018 The Dovish Hike wasn't Dovish Enough for the Stock Market (Publication Centre)

The FOMC did the minimum expected of it yesterday, raising rates by 25bp--with a 20bp increase in IOER--and dropping one of its dots for 2019.

29 June. 2016 Second Quarter GDP Growth Could Easily Breach 3% (Publication Centre)

The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now estimate for second quarter GDP growth will be revised today, in light of the data released over the past few days. We aren't expecting a big change from the June 24 estimate, 2.6%, because most of the recent data don't capture the most volatile components of growth, including inventories and government spending. The key driver of quarterly swings in the government component is state and local construction, but at this point we have data only for April; those numbers were weak.

30 November 2018 Fourth Quarter Consumption is Headed for a Solid 3% Gain (Publication Centre)

Neither the strength in October consumption nor the softness of core PCE inflation, reported yesterday, are sustainable.

30 Aug 2019 Markets are Underestimating the Risk of Higher Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Markets remain convinced that the U.S. faces no meaningful inflation risk for the foreseeable future.

30 April 2018 Hospital Services Inflation is now the Biggest Near-Term Threat to the Fed (Publication Centre)

We already have a pretty good idea of what happened to consumers' spending in March, following Friday's GDP release, so the single most important number in today's monthly personal income and spending report, in our view, is the hospital services component of the deflator.

19 June 2019 The Fed Will Commit to Ease if "Appropriate" it isn't, Yet (Publication Centre)

The Fed will leave rates unchanged today.

26 September 2018 The Fed Must Keep Hiking as the Labor Market Keeps Tightening (Publication Centre)

It would be astonishing if the Fed doesn't raise rates today, and Chair Powell is not in the astonishment business; they will hike by 25bp.

10 July 2019 Powell to Stick to the Party Line. Will he Mention the Trimmed Mean PCE? (Publication Centre)

We'd be surprised to see any serious shift in the tone of Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony today compared to the FOMC statement and press conference just three weeks ago.

12 July 2019 June's Core CPI Makes it Clear that a 50bp Ease is an Unnecessary Risk (Publication Centre)

Monthly core CPI prints of 0.3% are unusual; June's was the first since January 2018, so it requires investigation.

11 June 2019 What's Happening to Small Firms' Capex and Pricing Plans (Publication Centre)

We already know that the key labor market numbers in today's May NFIB survey are strong.

29 June 2018 Core PCE Inflation is Nudging Towards the Target (Publication Centre)

Our base-case forecast for the May core PCE deflator, due today, is a 0.17% increase, lifting the year-over-year rate by a tenth to 1.9%.

26 Feb. 2016 Core PCE Inflation Set to Jump - Fed Target is Within Reach in 2016 (Publication Centre)

All eyes will be on the core PCE deflator data today, in the wake of the upside surprise in the January core CPI, reported last week. The numbers do not move perfectly together each month, but a 0.2% increase in the core deflator is a solid bet, with an outside chance of an outsized 0.3% jump.

30 January 2018 Core PCE Inflation has Bottomed, and Will Rise Sharply in March (Publication Centre)

The 0.18% increase in the core PCE deflator in December was at the lower end of the range implied by the core CPI. It left the year-over-year rate at just 1.5%.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core PCE deflator back on track; Q2 consumption headed for 3%.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumption rocketing; core PCE deflator returning to target on a quarterly annualized basis.

8 May 2019 Financial Services have Depressed the Core PCE Expect a Rebound (Publication Centre)

A steep drop in prices for financial services in January was a key factor behind the sharp slowdown in the rate of increase of the core PCE deflator in the first quarter, relative to the core CPI.

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