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28 September 2017 Why is China's Party Congress Next Month so Important? (Publication Centre)

China's Party Congress is now less than one month away. Most commentators habitually add the words "all-important" before any reference to the event.

20 Apr. 2016 Rousseff Loses Key Impeachment Vote - Presidency on the Brink (Publication Centre)

Brazil's lower house of Congress on Sunday voted to start impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff, who is accused of tampering with the public accounts to help secure her re-election in 2014. Ms. Rousseff's opponents obtained 367 votes, exceeding the two-thirds majority, needed to send the motion to the Senate.

19 October 2017 China's Leaders Will Allow 2018 Growth to run Below Target (Publication Centre)

President Xi Jinping started China's Party Congress yesterday with a speech setting out the priorities for the next five years.

21 March 2018 China's Fiscal Reforms: Economies of Scale won't Reduce the Deficit yet (Publication Centre)

Premier Li Keqiang rounded out the National People's Congress with his press conference yesterday.

26 February 2018 The Era of Abnormally Low U.S. Long Real Yields is Coming to an End (Publication Centre)

After many years in which the phrase "twin deficits" was never mentioned, suddenly it is the explanation of choice for the weakening of the dollar and the sudden increase in real Treasury yields since the turn of the year, shortly after the tax cut bill passed Congress.

27 November 2017 China Instigates Another Friday Reform, Import Tariffs are Cut (Publication Centre)

Since the Party Congress last month, China has made a number of bold moves in multiple policy fields, with a regularity that almost implies the authorities are working through a list.

18 January 2018 China's Regulation Juggernaut Rolls into 2018. Enforcement Intensifies? (Publication Centre)

At the end of last year, after October's Party Congress, the Chinese authorities came out with significant new directives and regulations on an almost weekly basis.

23 October 2017 Remember Minsky Moments? And Please Give us Capital, says China (Publication Centre)

Two major themes emerged from the Chinese Party Congress last week, namely, further opening of the financial sector to foreigners, and the threat of a Minsky moment.

25 October 2017 Xi Immortalised in Constitution but is Wang's Retirement a Precedent? (Publication Centre)

The end of China's Party Congress can feel like an endless exercise in reading the tea leaves.

14 March 2018 What does China's Party - State Restructuring mean? (Publication Centre)

The National People's Congress yesterday announced a sweeping restructuring of Party/State architecture.

15 July 2019 Early Resolution to the Debt Ceiling would Raise Growth Forecasts (Publication Centre)

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's five-line letter to House Speaker Pelosi on last Friday--copied to other Congressional leaders--which said that "there is a scenario in which we run out of cash in early September, before Congress reconvenes", introduces a new element of uncertainty to the debt ceiling story.

15 December 2016 Congress, Growth and Inflation Will Determine What the Fed Does Next (Publication Centre)

The Fed's unanimous vote for a 25bp rate hike was overshadowed by the bump up in the dotplot for next year, with three hikes now expected, rather than the two anticipated in the September forecast. Chair Yellen argued the uptick in the rate forecasts was "tiny", but acknowledged that some participants moved their forecasts partly on the basis that fiscal policy is likely to be eased by the new Congress.

9 February 2018 Congress Set to Spray Yet More Fuel on the Fire, Over to You, Mr. Powell (Publication Centre)

The budget sequestration process, which cut discretionary government spending by a total of $114B in fiscal 2013 and fiscal 2014, was one of the dumbest things Congress has done in recent years.

20 March 2018 Up or down for the EZ current account surplus in 2018? (Publication Centre)

The euro area's trade advantage with the rest of the world slipped at the start of the year.

20 October 2017 Chinese Q3 Real GDP Growth was Stable but Below the Official Print (Publication Centre)

On the official gauge, China's real GDP growth fell minimally to 6.8% year-on-year in Q3, from 6.9% in Q2. Growth edged down to 1.7% quarter-on-quarter from an upwardly revised 1.8% in Q2.

20 June 2018 Recent MXN Performance Suggests that Banxico Won't Hike this Week (Publication Centre)

We now think that Banxico will keep interest rates on hold at 7.50% at its Thursday meeting, as the MXN has stabilized in recent days, despite rising geopolitical risks.

20 March 2019 Losing One Dot is a Good Bet Two Would Box-in the Fed Unnecessarily (Publication Centre)

We expect the Fed today to shift its dotplot to forecast one rate hike this year, down from two in December and three in September.

20 November 2017 PBoC Lets up After Tightening Ahead of Fed Hikes (Publication Centre)

The PBoC has let up on its open-market operations after allowing bond yields to move higher again in October.

20 July 2018 Improving Political, External Conditions in Mexico How Long Will it Last (Publication Centre)

Mexican president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, has set out the first points of his austerity plan, two weeks after his overwhelming victory at the polls.

20 November 2017 Terrible Timing for Tax Cuts -- if they Pass, the Fed Will Hike More Quickly (Publication Centre)

The passage of the House tax cut bill does not guarantee that the Senate will follow suit with its own bill, still less that both chambers will then be able to agree on a single bill which can then b e signed into law. As

2 November 2017 China's "War on Pollution" will Take its Toll on GDP Growth in Q4-Q1 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.0 in October, continuing the sideways trend this year.

17 April 2018 China will Loosen the Macropru by Year-end, for now, it's Intense (Publication Centre)

China's March money and credit data, published last Friday, showed that conditions continue to tighten, posing a threat to GDP growth this year.

16 May 2018 Chinese Retail Sales Volumes Stabilised in April, Q1 was Weak (Publication Centre)

Chinese April retail sales growth slowed sharply in value terms, to 9.4% year-over-year, from 10.1% in March.

17 January 2019 How Many Government Workers are Making Unemployment Claims (Publication Centre)

The weekly jobless claims numbers tend to be choppy around the turn of the year, and our take on the seasonal adjustments points to a clear increase in today's report, for the week ended January 11, even without the impact of the government shutdown.

17 July 2018 External Threats and Domestic Woes Will Limit LatAm's Recovery (Publication Centre)

External conditions are becoming more demanding for LatAm economies, with global trade tensions intensifying in recent weeks.

17 November 2017 Environmental Targets are now the Binding Constraint for China (Publication Centre)

Chinese policymakers' calls to abandon the obsession with high GDP growth--GDPism--are multiplying.

17 June 2019 Peak Trade War Might Already be Past, but Strong Nerves Needed (Publication Centre)

When economic historians look back at the bizarre trade war of 2018-to-19, we think they will see Tuesday June 4 as the turning point, after which the threats of fire and brimstone were taken much less seriously, and markets began to ponder life after tariffs.

21 June 2018 Business Surveys Set to Suffer from Tariffs, but the Hit will be Uneven (Publication Centre)

The startling jump in the Philly Fed index in May, when it rose 11.2 points to a 12-month high, seemed at first sight to be a response to fading tensions over global trade.

22 January 2018 China Growth Met Target Before Q4, Environmental Targets hit in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The China Daily ran an article entitled "Beijing, nation get breath of fresh air" on the day Chinese GDP figures were published last week, underlining where the authorities' priorities now lie.

26 September 2018 Brazil's External Accounts Will Remain Resilient the BRL Will Help (Publication Centre)

Brazilian financial assets lately appear to be responding only to developments in the presidential election race and external jitters.

25 June 2018 Banxico Hikes Preventively, the Next Move Will Depend on the MXN (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers voted unanimously last Thursday to hike the main rate by 25bp to 7.75%, the highest since early 2009.

24 May 2019 Modi 2.0 Defies Expectations, but Economic Reality will Hit Hard (Publication Centre)

India's National Democratic Alliance, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party,

3 November 2017 Asian Policy Divergence Can't Continue. PBoC to Fold First (Publication Centre)

The two major central banks in Asia currently have hugely different aims, causing a policy divergence that won't survive the 2018 rise in external yields.

31 March 2017 The Economic Outlook is Improving in Brazil, and even in Mexico (Publication Centre)

Downside risks to our growth forecast for Brazil and Mexico for this year have diminished this week. In Brazil, concerns over the potential impact of the meat scandal on the economy have diminished. Some key global customers, including Hong Kong, have in recent days eased restrictions on imports from Brazil, and other counties have ended their bans.

6 December 2017 Manufacturing Productivity Rises in China at the Expense of Services (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin services PMI picked up further in November to 51.9 from October's 51.2, but the rebound is merely a correction to the overshoot in September, when the headline dropped sharply.

8 December 2017 Chinese Outflows Picking up? FX Reserves to Fall Again in 2018 (Publication Centre)

China's FX reserves rose to $3119B in November from $3109B in October. But the increase is explained by simultaneous yen, euro and sterling strength, which raises the dollar value of assets denominated in these currencies.

23 March 2018 Brazil and Colombia to Ease Further, but Chile's Rate Cuts are Over (Publication Centre)

The COPOM meeting was the centre of attention in Brazil this week. The committee cut the main rate by 25 basis points to a new historical low of 6.50%, in line with market expectations.

22 May 2017 LatAm Markets Under Renewed Pressure, but Hold on, for Now (Publication Centre)

LatAm's relatively calm market environment has been thrown into disarray over the last few weeks.New fears of a slowdown in China, political turmoil in the U.S. and, most importantly, the serious corruption allegations facing Brazil's President, Michel Temer, have triggered a modest correction in asset markets and have disrupted the region's near-term policy dynamics.

6 November 2018 Expect Little Change in Economic Policy After the Midterms (Publication Centre)

We read the same polls, newspapers, and political websites as everyone else, and we're not claiming any special insight into the outcome of the midterm elections today.

8 March 2018 Will President Xi's Power Grab Scare Capital out of China? (Publication Centre)

China's FX reserves fell to $3,134B in February, from $3,161B in January, after a year of gains.

8 July 2019 50 is Off the Table, Would Strong Sales and Inflation Data Kill the 25? (Publication Centre)

The June employment report pretty much killed the idea that the Fed will cut rates by 50bp on July 31.

22 March 2019 A Slightly Dovish but Prudent BCB as the New Boss Takes Over (Publication Centre)

At Wednesday's BCB monetary policy meeting, led for the first time by the new president, Roberto Campos Neto, the COPOM voted unanimously to maintain the Selic rate at 6.50%, the lowest on record.

16 February 2018 A Busy Electoral Calendar Ahead, the Outlook Remains Uncertain (Publication Centre)

The busy electoral calendar that lies ahead for the region is beginning to come into focus. Colombia kicks off the process, followed by Mexico and Brazil.

8 December. 2016 Will the Fed Move up the Dotplot in Anticipation of Fiscal Easing? (Publication Centre)

We're hearing a good deal of speculation about the dotplot after next week's FOMC meeting, with investors wondering whether the median dot will rise in anticipation of the increased inflation threat posed by substantial fiscal loosening under the new administration. We suspect not, though for the record we think that higher rate forecasts could easily be justified simply by the tightening of the labor market even before any stimulus is implemented.

21 September 2017 Japanese GDP Supported by U.S. in Q3. Domestic Demand Weakening (Publication Centre)

Exports rebounded sharply in Q3 so far, after the Q2 weakness. This will be a useful boost to GDP growth in Q3, as domestic demand likely will soften.

14 January 2019 The Shutdown is Starting to do Real Damage to Q1 Growth (Publication Centre)

The partial government shutdown is now the longest on record, with little chance of a near-term resolution.

12 January 2018 Inflation in Brazil Ended 2017 Below the Target Range, 2018 Will be Fine (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil ended 2017 well under control, despite December's modest overshoot. This will allow the BCB to cut rates further in Q1 to underpin the economic recovery.

11 December 2017 Chile's Second Round is Shaping Up to be a Nail-Biter, Piñera to Win (Publication Centre)

On December 17, voters will go to the polls for the second time in less than a month to choose Chile's next president.

10 June 2019 Rising Threats of Protectionism is Making Central Banks Very Uneasy (Publication Centre)

LatAm's growth outlook is deteriorating, despite decent domestic fundamentals and political transitions toward more market-oriented governments in some of the region's main economies.

15 February 2019 Will the BCB Help to Drive a GDP Rebound After a Noisy 2018 (Publication Centre)

February's COPOM meeting minutes again signalled that Brazil's central bank will stick with its cautious approach to monetary policy.

13 December 2016 Mexico's Industrial Sector Started Q4 Slowly, 2017 will be Poor (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in Mexico remained under pressure at the start of Q4. Output rose just 0.1% month-to-month in October, leaving the year-over-year rate unchanged at -1.4%, down from an average of -0.8% in Q3.

10 January 2018 Price-Level Targeting isn't Coming Soon, it's Likely not Coming at all (Publication Centre)

Judging from our inbox, the idea that the Fed might switch to some form of price level targeting, replacing its current 2% inflation target, is the big new idea for 2018.

13 March 2018 Piñera Takes Office in Chile Will he be Able to Deliver on his Promises? (Publication Centre)

The second presidency of Chile's conservative Sebastián Piñera, a billionaire turned politician, began on Sunday, March 11, in favourable economic circumstances.

14 September 2017 PBoC Pushes Back on RMB Rise. Stability is Still King, for now (Publication Centre)

The RMB has risen strongly in recent months, initially with the euro and the yen, but China's currency rose on a trade-weighted basis in August.

15 December 2017 The PBoC's Meagre Hike Implies the RMB is set to Depreciate (Publication Centre)

Following this week's 25bp Fed hike, the PBoC hiked the main interest rates in its corridor by... 5bp. The move was unexpected so the RMB strengthened modestly; commentary is full of how this means the deleveraging drive is serious.

14 February 2018 Japanese PPI Inflation Should Head Higher Again, hit by Energy Prices (Publication Centre)

Japanese headline PPI inflation will edge higher in coming months as last year's rise in oil prices feeds through. But inflation in manufacturing goods, excluding processing, is microscopic and should soon roll over as pipeline pressures wane.

29 August 2017 The next few Months will Test Temer's Capital in Congress (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic outlook is gradually improving following a challenging Q2, which was hit by political risk, putting business and consumer confidence under pressure.

2 Dec. 2015 Yellen to Affirm Labor Market Gains, Promise "Gradual" Hikes (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen speaks to the Economics Club of Washington, D.C., at 12.25 Eastern today, a day before she appears before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress at 10.00 Eastern. These will be her last public utterances before the FOMC meeting on December 16. Dr. Yellen won't say anything which could be interpreted as seeking to front-run the outcome of the meeting; that's not her style. But we expect her clearly to repeat that the Fed's decision will depend on whether progress has been made since October towards the Fed's twin objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation.

2 February 2017 March is Alive as the FOMC's Tone Becomes More Direct (Publication Centre)

The FOMC statement did enough to keep alive the idea that rates could rise in March, but the ball is now mostly in Congress' court. If a clear plan for substantial fiscal easing has emerged by the time of the meeting on March 15, policymakers can incorporate its potential impact on growth, unemployment and inflation into their forecasts, then a rate hike will be much more likely.

20 November 2017 Low Core Inflation Continues to Provide Cover for Mr. Draghi (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi's speech to the European Banking Congress on Friday--see here--was a timely reminder to markets that the ECB is in no hurry to make any changes to its policy setting.

19 March 2018 Change in China and the Economic Implications (Publication Centre)

China's National People's Congress this year was the most significant in years and followed 12 months of lightning-speed change in the country.

13 February 2017 What Would it Take to Persuade the Fed to Hike in March? (Publication Centre)

Our argument that rates could rise as soon as March has always been contingent on two factors, namely, robust labor market data and a degree of clarity on the extent of fiscal easing likely to emerge from Congress. On the first of these issues, the latest evidence is mixed.

12 January 2017 How Can Trump Deliver Quickly on his Tax Cut Pledges? (Publication Centre)

As far as we can tell, most forecasters expect the impact of fiscal stimulus this year to be gradual, with perhaps most of the boost to growth coming next year. At this point, with no concrete proposals either from the new administration or Congress, anything can happen, and we can't rule out the idea of a slow roll-out of tax cuts and spending increases.

22 Dec. 2015 Miserable Economic And Political News Keeps Coming For Brazil (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recent political and economics news has shifted the near-term outlook from bad to worse. President Rousseff on Friday replaced hawkish Finance Minister Joaquim Levy, appointed just over a year ago, with a close partner, Planning Minister Nelson Barbosa. Mr. Levy resigned after continued conflicts with the government, including frustration by the Congress of his attempts to rein in the fiscal mess. Mr. Barbosa is known to be less market friendly, and will likely defend countercyclical measures, delaying any rapid fiscal consolidation. The appointment will deteriorate investors' confidence even further, placing the markets under enormous strain.

12 October 2017 China's Real GDP Growth Should Continue to Trend Down in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Next week is a big one for China. The five yearly Party Congress opens on Wednesday, and on Thursday, the monthly raft of activity data is published, along with Q3 GDP.

16 Sept. 2015 Brazil's Austerity Measures Sound Good, But Probably Won't All Happen (Publication Centre)

Brazil's government announced on Monday spending cuts and new tax increases, aiming to generate a 0.7% of GDP primary surplus, and so restore market confidence and avoid further credit rating downgrades. The plan is to reduce expenditure by BRL26B next year--or 0.4% of GDP--mainly through freezing public sector salaries and slashing social projects. These measures, especially the latter, will likely meet strong resistance in Congress. The salary freeze has more of a chance of passing, but reducing or closing some Ministries is a cost-cutting exercise with an extremely high political price.

18 November. 2016 Yellen Still Thinks Inflation Will Hit the Target in Two Years. Hmm. (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen's Testimony yesterday pretended the election hadn't happened, and ignored the incoming administration's plans for a huge fiscal stimulus. She did address the issue under questioning, though, pointing out that fiscal stimulus could have inflationary consequences and that the Fed will have to factor-in to its decisions whatever Congress decides to do to taxes and spending.

25 April 2017A Government Shutdown Would Say More About Politics Than Economics (Publication Centre)

A shutdown of the federal government, which could happen as early as this weekend, is a political event rather than a macroeconomic shock. But if it happens--if Congress cannot agree on even a shortterm stop-gap spending measure in order to keep the lights on after the 28th--it would demonstrate yet again that the splits in the House mean that the prospects of a substantial near-term loosening of fiscal policy are now very slim.

5 March 2018 China's NPC Annual Session Expectations, Targets and Personnel (Publication Centre)

China's National People's Congress is set to convene its annual meeting next week.

23 Mar. 2016 Rousseff's Government is on the Ropes - Fiscal Progress Will Slow (Publication Centre)

Political turmoil in Brazil continues to undermine President Dilma Rousseff's leverage over the economy. On Friday, the Lower House of Congress voted to start impeachment proceeding against Ms. Rousseff. She has until early April to present her defense against charges that she doctored government accounts and used graft proceeds to fund the 2014 electoral campaign.

6 March 2018 Why China will Miss its GDP Growth, Fiscal Deficit and RMB targets (Publication Centre)

China's National People's Congress yesterday laid out its main goals for this year, on the first day of its annual meeting.

*Dec. 2016 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brace for the Fed's Pushback...But only when Fiscal Easing is in front of Congress

4 Dec. 2014 The ECB Doves are In Control - Can They Make Their Influence Count? (Publication Centre)

The dovish message from the ECB going into today's final meeting of the year has intensified. Mr. Draghi's comments last month, at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, point to an increased worry on low core inflation.

6 June 2019 Even GOP Senators have Limits Tariffs on Mexico Cross the Line (Publication Centre)

The pushback from within the President's own party against the proposed tariffs on Mexican imports has been strong; perhaps strong enough either to prevent the tariffs via Congressional action, or by persuading Mr. Trump that the idea is a losing proposition.

28 Oct. 2015 Budget Deal Means Fiscal Policy Will Ease Slightly Next Year (Publication Centre)

The two-year budget deal agreed between the administration and the Republican leadership in Congress will avert a federal debt default and appears to constitute a modest near-term easing of fiscal policy. The debt ceiling will not be raised, but the law imposing the limit will be suspended through March 2017, leaving the Treasury free to borrow as much as necessary to cover the deficit. As a result, the presidential election next year will not be fought against a backdrop of fiscal crisis.

27 May. 2016 Mr. Temer Starts to Deliver - Fiscal Measures are Positive, Overall (Publication Centre)

Recent political and economic developments in Brazil make us more confidence in our forecast of a gradual recovery. On Wednesday, interim President Michel Temer scored his first victory in Congress, winning approval for his request to raise this year's budget target to a more realistic level. Under the new target, Brazil's government plans to run a budget gap, before interest, of about 2.7% of GDP this year.

24 October 2017 China's Property Slowdown Intensifies, More to Come (Publication Centre)

In his opening speech at the Party Congress, President Xi received warm applause for his comment that houses are "for living in, not for speculation".

3 July 2018 AMLO Wins a Landslide Victory Markets Will Keep a Close Eye on Him (Publication Centre)

Early results project that Andrés Manuel López Obrador--AMLO--will become the new Mexican president with 53.4% of the votes, against Ricardo Anaya's 22.6%, and José Antonio Meade's 15.7%. AMLO has declared victory and thanked his opponents, who recognized his triumph.

8 February 2019 Fiscal Deadlines Promise Drama, but Probably not Crises (Publication Centre)

Two fiscal deadlines are on the near-horizon.

Question of the Week, WC 25th June (Media Centre)

With the Mexican Elections on July 1st, our Chief Latam Economist Andres Abadia has received many questions about the possible outcomes and how this will affect the Mexican economy going forward.

New York Times - Fed Predicts Modest Economic Growth From Tax Cut (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the Fed's growth forecast

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