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87 matches for " chicago pmi":

US Datanote: Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boeing constrains Chicago PMI: Consumers happier, for now.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The manufacturing upturn appears to have peaked, for now.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible, but could have been worse.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Could have been worse. Will be worse

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Wild.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, September and Chicago PMI, 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Payrolls still rising, but perhaps not for much longer.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better, but still weak.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A startling catch-up.

US Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boeing, probably.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No sign of recovery, but other regional surveys are less bad.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Likely bottoming, but no real recovery in sight.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim; trade war and Boeing woes to blame.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Much better, but still soft, and downside risks ahead.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible.

U.S. Datanote: Chicago PMI, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boeing's woes and trade are hurting.

30 June. 2015 Slowing Aircraft Orders Holding Back Chicago PMI - No Hit to ISM (Publication Centre)

The seasonal adjustment problems which tend to drive up the national ISM manufacturing survey in late spring and summer are more or less absent from the Chicago PMI, which will be released today. As far as we can tell, the biggest short-term influence on the Chicago number is variations in the order flow for Boeing aircraft; the company moved its headquarters to the city from Seattle in 2001.

29 March 2019 Core PCE Inflation is Stable, but Risk from Higher January Airline Fares (Publication Centre)

Our base case forecast has core PCE inflation at 1.9% from November 2018 through July this year.

3 December 2018 Tariff Deferment Shows Both Sides Want a Deal, but it Will Take Time (Publication Centre)

The agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 is a deferment of disaster rather than a fundamental rebuilding of the trading relationship between the U.S. and China.

29 Oct 2019 Consumers Still Confident, but Job Growth will Slow, Testing their Faith (Publication Centre)

We aren't convinced by the idea that consumers' confidence will be depressed as a direct result of the rollover in most of the regular surveys of business sentiment and activity.

30 Apr 2020 The Fed is Doing all it Can (Publication Centre)

The Fed's statement yesterday was unsurprising, acknowledging a "sharp" decline in economic activity and a significant tightening of financial conditions, which has "impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses."

30 Apr. 2015 FOMC acknowledges slowdown in Q1, but core view unchanged (Publication Centre)

The FOMC delivered no big surprises yesterday, but seemed keen to make it clear that policymakers are sticking to their core views, despite the slowdown in growth in the first quarter. Unlike the March statement, yesterday's note pointed out that the slowdown came in the winter months, though it did not directly blame the weather for the sluggishness in growth.

29 March 2018 Net Trade Will be a Drag on Q1 GDP, but Inventories are Rocketing (Publication Centre)

If we're right with our forecast that real consumers' spending rose by just 0.1% month-to-month in February -- enough only to reverse January's decline -- then it would be reasonable to expect consumption across the first quarter as a whole to climb at a mere 1.2% annualized rate.

3 January 2018 The Manufacturing Upswing Continues no Sign of Weakening (Publication Centre)

The Manufacturing Upswing Continues; no Sign of Weakening

3 Jan 2020 Manufacturing Still Struggling, but no Longer Sinking Deeper (Publication Centre)

The substantial gap between the key manufacturing surveys for the U.S. and China, relative to their long-term relationship, likely narrowed a bit in December.

28 Oct 2019 The Trade Deficit Looks Set to Explode in Q4, it's not Just Boeing (Publication Centre)

Recent export performance has been poor, but the export orders index in the ISM manufacturing survey-- the most reliable short-term leading indicator--strongly suggests that it will be terrible in the fourth quarter.

28 Feb 2020 The Fed Can't Stand by as Markets Melt, Expect Easing at Any Time (Publication Centre)

The Fed will soon have to step in to try to put a firebreak in the stock market.

30 April 2018 Hospital Services Inflation is now the Biggest Near-Term Threat to the Fed (Publication Centre)

We already have a pretty good idea of what happened to consumers' spending in March, following Friday's GDP release, so the single most important number in today's monthly personal income and spending report, in our view, is the hospital services component of the deflator.

28 February 2018 Powell Plays the Continuity Card, Mostly, but he's Bullish on Growth (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell sounded a lot like Janet Yellen yesterday, at least in terms of substance.

28 February 2019 Expect Underwhelming Q4 GDP Growth Data Today Q1 Likely Worse (Publication Centre)

We expect to learn today that the economy expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, slowing from 3.4% in the third.

28 Jan 2020 Plummeting Boeing Orders Mean Downside Risk for Durable Goods (Publication Centre)

Core durable goods orders in recent months have been much less terrible than implied by both the ISM and Markit manufacturing surveys.

29 Jan 2020 Fed on Hold, Awaiting Macro or Virus Developments, IOER to Rise (Publication Centre)

The Fed will do nothing to the funds rate or its balance sheet expansion program today.

28 September 2018 Mixed Signals on Industry Peak or Plateau (Publication Centre)

It seems reasonable to think that manufacturing should be doing better in the U.S. than other major economies.

29 June 2018 Core PCE Inflation is Nudging Towards the Target (Publication Centre)

Our base-case forecast for the May core PCE deflator, due today, is a 0.17% increase, lifting the year-over-year rate by a tenth to 1.9%.

31 August 2017 Third Quarter Consumption off to a Strong Start? (Publication Centre)

Today's wave of economic reports are all likely to be strong. The most important single number is the increase in real consumers' spending in July, the first month of the third quarter.

31 Mar 2020 Business and Consumer Confidence are Cratering, Further Falls Ahead (Publication Centre)

A pair of closely-watched reports today will confirm that business and consumer confidence is tanking in the face of the coronavirus outbreak.

31 January 2018 FOMC Likely More Bullish on Growth, but No Policy Changes (Publication Centre)

Chair Yellen's final FOMC meeting today will be something of a non-event in economic terms.

31 January 2017 Will Faster Wage Growth Finally Trigger An Acceleration in the ECI? (Publication Centre)

The headline employment cost index has been remarkably dull recently, with three straight 0.6% quarterly increases. The consensus forecast for today's report, for the three months to December, is for the same again.

31 March 2017 February Consumption Will Look Grim (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the February consumer spending data, due today, will contradict the upbeat signal from confidence surveys. The dramatic upturn in sentiment since the election is consistent with a rapid surge in real consumption, but we're expecting to see unchanged real spending in February, following a startling 0.3% decline in January.

31 May 2017 A Consumer Rebound is Underway, but Watch out for Healthcare Costs (Publication Centre)

In the wake of April's 0.2% increase in real consumers' spending, and the upward revisions to the first quarter numbers, we now think that second quarter spending is on course to rise at an annualized rate of about 3.5%.

4 March 2019 Does the Flatter Phillips Curve Mean the Next Downturn will be Severe (Publication Centre)

Investors focussed last week on Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony, but he said nothing much new.

31 May. 2016 Can we Still be Confident that the Saving Rate Will Fall? (Publication Centre)

Europeans, who usually save more of their income than Americans, have spent all the windfall from falling gas prices. Americans have not. It is tempting, therefore, to argue that perhaps Americans have come to see the error of their low-saving ways, and are now seeking to emulate the behavior of high-saving Europeans. Undeniably, the plunge in gas prices has given Americans the opportunity to save more without making hard choices.

31 Jan 2020 The Wage Growth Gap Persists: No Sign Yet of a Labor Scarcity Premium (Publication Centre)

It's a myth that the 10-ye ar decline in the unemployment rate has not driven up the pace of wage growth.

28 Aug 2019 Consumers are Very Happy About the Labor Market: Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

We were happy to see upside surprises from both sides of the domestic economy yesterday, but we doubt that the August readings from both the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey and the Richmond Fed business survey can hold.

30 June 2017 Core PCE Inflation set to Fall Again, but it won't Sway the Fed (Publication Centre)

We have argued recently that the year-over-year rates of core CPI and core PCE inflation could cross over the next year, with core PCE rising more quickly for the first time since 2010.

30 Jan 2020 Fed Policy Still "Appropriate", FOMC Watching Virus Story "Very Carefully" (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's FOMC , announcing a unanimous vote for no change in the funds rate, is almost identical to December's.

30 Aug 2019 Markets are Underestimating the Risk of Higher Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Markets remain convinced that the U.S. faces no meaningful inflation risk for the foreseeable future.

30 June 2020 Case Growth Might be Starting to Slow in Arizona, Others Later (Publication Centre)

It's possible that first hints of better news ahead in the Covid surge in the South and West are beginning to emerge in the data.

30 November 2018 Fourth Quarter Consumption is Headed for a Solid 3% Gain (Publication Centre)

Neither the strength in October consumption nor the softness of core PCE inflation, reported yesterday, are sustainable.

30 Sept 2019 Follow the Numbers for Clues to Mr. Trump's Impeachment Fate (Publication Centre)

We have no way of knowing what will be the final outcome of the impeachment inquiry now underway in the House of Representatives, but we are pretty sure that the first key stage will end with a vote to send the President for trial in the Senate.

30 Oct 2019 The Fed will Ease Today, but will Signal a Pause Unless Growth Tanks (Publication Centre)

The stage is set for the Fed to ease by 25bp today, but to signal that further reductions in the funds rate would require a meaningful deterioration in the outlook for growth or unexpected downward pressure on inflation.

30 April 2019 Three Soft Core PCE Deflator Numbers Don't Make a Trend (Publication Centre)

It's pretty easy to spin a story that the recent core PCE numbers represent a sharp and alarming turn south.

23 October 2018 Business Surveys have Flattened Richmond Fed due to Correct (Publication Centre)

All the regional PMIs and Fed business surveys are volatile in the short-term, so observations for single months need to be viewed with due skepticism.

1 Oct 2019 ISM Manufacturing Likely Rose a bit in September, but it Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

The obsession of markets and the media with the industrial sector means that today's ISM manufacturing survey will be scrutinized far more closely than is justified by its real importance.

1 Nov 2019 Payrolls Set for GM Hit, but the Trend is Slowing too, with Worse to Come (Publication Centre)

We expect to see a 70K increase in October payrolls today.

1 May 2019 What Will Chair Powell say About Strong Q1 Growth and Low Inflation (Publication Centre)

The FOMC meeting today will be a non-event from a policy perspective but we are very curious to see what both the written statement and the Chair will have to say about the unexpected strength of the economy in the first quarter.

16 December 2016 Core Inflation has Levelled-Off, but Only Temporarily, Headline to Soar (Publication Centre)

A casual glance at our first chart, which shows the headline and core inflation rates, might lead you to think that our fears for next year are overdone. Core inflation rose rapidly from a low of 1.6% in January 2015 to 2.3% in February this year, but since then it has bounced around a range from 2.1% to 2.3%.

17 May 2019 The China-led Industrial Downturn is Ending, Trade War Permitting (Publication Centre)

Evidence in support of our view that the U.S. industrial slowdown is ending continues to mount, though nothing is yet definitive and the re-escalation of the trade war is a threat of uncertain magnitude to the incipient upturn.

19 July 2018 Housing Investment Likely Dipped in Q2 it's the Only Point of Weakness (Publication Centre)

We can't finalize our forecast for residential investment in the second quarter until we see the June home sales reports, due next week, but in the wake of yesterday's housing starts numbers we can be pretty sure that our estimate will be a bit below zero.

18 May 2018 Second Quarter Growth Started Strongly, but a Long Way to go (Publication Centre)

The half-way point of the quarter is not, alas, the half-way point of the data flow for the quarter.

1 March 2018 Don't Extrapolate Januarys Core PCE Deflator (Publication Centre)

All eyes today will be on the core PCE deflator for January, following the unexpectedly large 0.3% increase in the core CPI.

1 June. 2016 ISM Set to Slip Below 50, but Will the Fed Care Enough to Hold Fire? (Publication Centre)

When the Fed raised rates in December, it subverted one of its own long-standing conventions by hiking with the ISM manufacturing index below 50. The December survey, released just 15 days before the meeting, showed the headline index slipping to 48.6, the third straight sub-50 reading. It has since been revised down to 48.0, the lowest reading since June 2009.

1 Apr 2020 ADP Likely to Capture the Leading Edge of the Virus Hit to Jobs (Publication Centre)

Today's March ADP employment report likely will catch the leading edge of the wave of job losses triggered by the coronavirus.

03 October. 2016 ISM Unlikely to Rebound Much, but Manufacturing is Not Shrinking (Publication Centre)

Today's September ISM manufacturing survey is one of the most keenly-awaited for some time. Was the unexpected plunge in August a one-time fluke--perhaps due to sampling error, or a temporary reaction to the Gulf Coast floods, or Brexit--or was it evidence of a more sustained downshift, possibly triggered by political uncertainty?

1 December. 2016 ISM Set to Show that Manufacturing is Recovering, Albeit Slowly (Publication Centre)

We have lost count of the number of times the drop in the ISM manufacturing survey, in the wake of the plunge in oil prices, was a harbinger o f recession across the whole economy. It wasn't, because the havoc wreaked in the industrial economy by the collapse in capital spending in the oil sector was contained.

1 July. 2016 Manufacturing Activity Has Levelled-Off - Better News Ahead (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector is much more exposed to external forces--the dollar, and global growth--than the rest of the economy. But much of the slowdown in the sector over the past year-and-a-half, we think, can be traced back to the impact of plunging oil prices on capital spending in the sector.

1 June 2020 The Saving Rate has Peaked, but Consumers have a Lot of Firepower (Publication Centre)

The entire 10.5% increase in personal income in April, reported on Friday, was due to the direct stimulus payments made to households under the CARES Act.

1 June 2017 ADP Likely to Rebound Strongly, but Probably Will Overstate Payrolls (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a strong-looking 225K increase in the May ADP measure of private sector payroll growth, due today. The consensus forecast is 180K.

27 Nov 2019 The GM Strike Likely Depressed October Orders, Core Soft too? (Publication Centre)

Today's wave of data will bring new information on the industrial sector, consumers, the labor market, and housing, as well as revisions to the third quarter GDP numbers.

19 July 2019 Talk of Downside Inflation Risk will be Muted by September (Publication Centre)

The spike in the May core CPI, and its likely echo in the core PCE, won't stop the Fed easing at the end of this month.

25 Nov 2019 Deferring the December 15 Tariffs is not Alone Enough to Lift Growth (Publication Centre)

The weaker is the economy over the next few months, the more likely it is that Mr. Trump blinks and removes some--perhaps even all--the tariffs on Chinese imports.

25 July 2019 Today's Array of Data Could Shift the Needle on Q2 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

The June durable goods, trade and inventory reports today, could make a material difference to forecasts for the first estimate of second quarter GDP growth, due tomorrow.

25 Feb 2020 The Fed will Blink if Markets have Many More Days Like Yesterday (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's stock market bloodbath stands in contrast to the U.S. economic data, most of which so far show no impact from the Covid-19 outbreak.

26 Feb 2020 The Fed's "Too Soon to Tell" Line Won't Hold if Markets Keep Falling (Publication Centre)

The spread of the Covid-19 virus remains the key issue for markets, which were deeply unhappy yesterday at reports of new cases in Austria, Spain and Switzerland, all of which appear to be connected to the cluster in northern Italy.

26 Nov 2019 The Export Collapse Signalled by the Late Summer ISM has been Averted (Publication Centre)

We were terrified by the plunge in the ISM manufacturing export orders index in August and September, which appeared to point to a 2008-style meltdown in trade flows.

27 Jan 2020 CPI Health Insurance is Unstable, But Rapid Gains are More Likely than Not (Publication Centre)

Forecasting the health insurance component of the CPI is a mug's game, so you'll look in vain for hard projections in this note.

27 Feb 2020 Non-China Covid-19 Spread is Slowing but Big Market Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of Covid-19 cases outside China appears to have peaked, for now, but we can't yet have any confidence that this represents a definitive shift in the progress of the epidemic.

19 May 2017 Expect a Hike on June 14 Unless Financial Conditions Tighten, a Lot (Publication Centre)

The probability of a rate hike on June 14, as implied by the fed funds future, has dropped to 90%, from a peak of 99% on May 5.

21 September 2018 Housing Activity is Faltering, but the Modestly (Publication Centre)

The New York Fed tweeted yesterday that "Housing market fundamentals appear strong.

2 Jan 2020 The Post-Tariffs Plunge in Imports Continues, but not Forever (Publication Centre)

While were out over the holidays, the single biggest surprise in the data was yet another drop in imports, reported in the advance trade numbers for November.

2 December. 2016 Friendly Seasonals Set to Push Payrolls Back Above 200K? (Publication Centre)

Our payroll model, which incorporates survey data as well as the error term from our ADP forecast, points to a hefty 225K increase in November employment. We have tweaked the forecast to the upside because of the tendency in recent years for the fourth quarter numbers to be stronger than the prior trend, as our first chart shows.

2 July 2019 Auto Sales are Solid: Fundamentals are Keeping Sales Over 17M (Publication Centre)

We keep hearing that the auto market is struggling, but that idea is not supported by the recent sales numbers.

2 Mar 2020 Covid-19 Cases Accelerating Outside the Four Major Outbreaks (Publication Centre)

The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing at a faster rate, though 89% of the new cases reported Saturday were in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran.

21 October. 2016 Government Spending Higher Next Year? (Publication Centre)

It has become pretty clear over the past couple of weeks that Hillary Clinton will be the next president, so it's now worth thinking about how fiscal policy will evolve over the next couple of years.

2 May 2019 Powell Pushes Back on Low Q1 Inflation Fed Base Case Unchanged (Publication Centre)

The Fed yesterday acknowledged clearly the new economic information of recent months, namely, that first quarter GDP growth was "solid", with Chair Powell noting that it was stronger than most forecasters expected.

30 September. 2016 August Spending is Less Worrying than the Scope for Higher In ation (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's relatively good news--we discuss the implications of the August trade data below--will be followed by rather more mixed reports today. We hope to see a partial rebound, at least, in the September Chicago PMI, but we fully expect soft August consumer spending data.

1 March 2017 The Soaring Trade Deficit is set to Constrain First Quarter Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's wall of data told us a bit about where the economy likely is going, and a bit about how it started the first quarter. The January trade and inventory data were disappointing, but the February Chicago PMI and consumer confidence reports were positive.

4 December 2018 The Manufacturing Cycle has Peaked, but No Rollover Yet (Publication Centre)

The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index was a relief, after the sharp drop in October, though the strength in last week's Chicago PMI meant that it wasn't a complete surprise.

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