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21 December 2017 Polls Point to a Hung Parliament In Catalonia in Today's Vote (Publication Centre)

Catalonia goes to the polls today, and it will be a close call. Surveys point to a hung parliament in which neither the pro-separatists nor the unionist coalition will secure an absolute majority.

19 September 2017 Separatists in Catalonia are on the Road to Nowhere (Publication Centre)

The face-off is intensifying between Madrid and the pro-independent local government in Catalonia. A referendum on independence in the northeastern state has been rejected by the Spanish government and has been declared constitutionally illegal by the high court.

30 October 2017 New Elections in Catalonia Beckon as Madrid Activates Article 155 (Publication Centre)

The headlines from Catalonia are as confusing as ever, but we are sticking to our view--see here--that regional elections are the only reasonable outcome of the chaos.

20 October 2017 The Spanish Economy is Resilient to the Chaos in Catalonia, for Now (Publication Centre)

The Spanish economy has been punching above its weight in the current business cycle. Real GDP growth has trended at about 0.8% quarter-on-quarter since 2015, far outpacing the other major EZ economies.

12 October 2017 The Catalan Government is on the Brink. Early Regional Elections? (Publication Centre)

We struggle to see how the pro-separatist movement in Catalonia can move forward from here.

29 September 2017 Catalonia Will Not Become Independent this Weekend (Publication Centre)

Sunday's referendum on independence in Catalonia is a wild-card. The central government has taken drastic steps to ensure that a vote doesn't happen.

31 October 2017 EZ GDP Growth Slowed in Q3, but Trend is Steady at About 2% (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data kicked off the release of Eurozone Q3 growth numbers with a robust Spanish headline. Real GDP in Spain rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, slowing slightly from 0.9% in Q2, and le aving the year-over-year rate unchanged at 3.1%.

6 October 2017 Political Risks are Rising in the Eurozone, Should Markets Care? (Publication Centre)

Political risks have been making an unwelcome comeback in the Eurozone in the past month. In Germany, last month's parliamentary elections--see here--has left Mrs. Merkel with a tricky coalition- building exercise.

3 November 2017 The EZ Manufacturing Sector is in No Mood for a Slowdown (Publication Centre)

Survey data signal that Eurozone manufacturing retained momentum at the start of Q4. Yesterday's final PMI reports showed that the EZ manufacturing index rose to 58.5 in October from 58.1 in September, trivially below the first estimate.

23 Sept. 2015 Slow Growth in China is a Risk, but Not the Whole Story in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Expectations that the ECB will respond to weakening growth in China with Additional stimulus mean that survey data will be under particular scrutiny this week. The consensus thinks the Chinese manufacturing PMI--released overnight--will remain weak, but advance PMIs in the Eurozone should confirm that the cyclical recovery remained firm in Q3. We think the composite PMI edged slightly lower to 54.0 in September from 54.3 in August, consistent with real GDP growth of about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3.

10 October 2017 German Manufacturing Continued to Boost the Economy in Q3 (Publication Centre)

German manufacturing snapped back at the end of summer. Industrial production jumped 2.6% month-to-month in August, pushing the year-over- year rate up to 4.7% from a revised 4.2% in July.

29 Sept. 2015 Deflation Focus is Overwhelming, But Inflation will Pick Up in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone September CPI data this week will show that inflation pressures remain weak, appearing to support the ECB's focus on downside risks. We think Eurozone inflation--data released Wednesday-- rose slightly to 0.2% year-over-year in September from 0.1% in August, as core inflation edged higher, offsetting weak energy prices. Looking ahead, structural inflation pressures will keep inflation well below the central bank's 2% target for a considerable period.

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