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19 Apr. Are the Treasury's Brexit Calculations Plausible? (Publication Centre)

The Treasury waded in to the Brexit debate yesterday with a 200-page report concluding that U.K. GDP would be 6.2% lower in 2030 than otherwise if Britain left the E.U. and entered into a bilateral trade deal similar to the one recently agreed by Canada. All long-term economic projections should come with health warnings, and the Treasury's precise numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt.

12 June 2018 Should Eurozone Investors Fear U.S. Import Tariffs on Cars? (Publication Centre)

Predictably, last weekend's G7 meeting in Canada ended in acrimony between the U.S. and its key trading partners.

25 April 2017 Mexico's IGAE Confirms a Surprisingly Firm Economy in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Economic activity in Mexico during the past few months has been stronger than most observers expected. Growth has certainly moderated from the relatively strong pace recorded during the second half of last year, but data for January and February show that it is still quite strong.

25 August 2017 Mexico's Mid-August Inflation Surprise is Nothing to Worry About (Publication Centre)

Mexico's inflation has been LatAm's odd one out over the last few years. In the decade through 2014, Mexico's inflation rate was broadly in sync with those of its regional fellows, as shown in our first chart.

23 March 2018 Brazil and Colombia to Ease Further, but Chile's Rate Cuts are Over (Publication Centre)

The COPOM meeting was the centre of attention in Brazil this week. The committee cut the main rate by 25 basis points to a new historical low of 6.50%, in line with market expectations.

22 August 2017 Economic Activity is Turning Up in LatAm, but no Boom Coming (Publication Centre)

LatAm's economies are gradually rebounding, boosted by easier monetary policy in most countries, falling inflation, and a relatively calm external backdrop.

27 February 2018 The Trend in Mortgage Lending is Downward, Despite January's Jump (Publication Centre)

House purchase mortgage approvals by the main street banks jumped to 40.1K in January, from 36.1K in December, fully reversing the 4K fall of the previous two months, according to trade body U.K. Finance.

23 January 2017 Chile's Central Bank Cuts Rates, Leaving the Door Open for More (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank cut the country's main interest rate by 25bp to 3.25% last Thursday. The easing was expected, as the board adopted a dovish bias last month, after keeping a neutral stance for most of 2016. Last week's move, coupled with the tone of the communiqué, suggests that further easing is coming, as growth continues to disappoint and inflation pressures are easing.

4 June 2018 Trump's Tariffs are a Bad Omen for NAFTA Talks, Trade-War Risk Rising (Publication Centre)

Rising political risks and NAFTA-related threats have put the MXN under pressure last month, driving it down 4.9% against the USD, as shown in our first chart.

8 June 2018 The FX Sell-off has Put Central Banks Under Stress, will they Act? (Publication Centre)

EM risk sentiment remains grim as the Trump administration dispenses protectionist trade measures. LatAm's biggest economies, Brazil and Mexico, have been hit the hardest, with their currencies falling 3.3% and 2.2% respectively in the last week, the most in the EM world.

9 March 2018 MXN Breathes Sigh of Relief as U.S. Exempts Mexico, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

It is still premature to make fundamental changes to our core views for the global or LatAm economy, following President Trump's plan to slap hefty tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, potentially escalating into a global trade war.

7 March 2018 Brazil's Industrial Sector Remains Solid, Despite Slipping in January (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector was off to a soft-looking start in Q1, but the fall in January output was chiefly payback for an especially strong end to 2017.

5 March 2018 Parliament Eventually will Bring Mrs. May Back to the Real World (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister told the public to "face up to some hard facts" about Brexit in her speech on Friday, but she still clung to an unachievable vision of what Britain can hope to achieve.

20 September 2017 The MXN Remains Strong, but Further Upside Potential is Modest (Publication Centre)

Banxico's tightening cycle has totalled 400 basis points, lifting rates to 7.0%. Since late 2015, Banxico has followed the Fed closely, but other external factors also have guided many of its decisions.

5 June 2018 ISM Non-manufacturing Set to Rebound, Watch Employment (Publication Centre)

The headline May ISM non-manufacturing index today likely will mirror, at least in part, the increase in the manufacturing survey, reported Friday.

4 December 2017 Britain Will be Forever Stuck in the Brexit Departure Lounge (Publication Centre)

Sterling strengthened last week to its highest tradeweighted level since mid-May, amid hopes that the U.K. government will concede more ground to ensure that the European Council deems, at its December 14 meeting, that "sufficient progress" has been made in Brexit talks for trade discussions to begin

20 June 2018 Japan's Banks have Taken Over from European Banks Post-GFC (Publication Centre)

We repeatedly have highlighted Japanese banks' foreign activities as source of rising risk for Japan and the global financial system.

10 May 2017 Mexico's Confidence Indicators are Improving, but Headwinds Remain (Publication Centre)

Market participants and analysts have gradually softened their cautious stance towards Mexico, as concerns about the new U.S. administration's trade and immigration policies have eased, and risks of a credit rating downgrade have lessened.

12 Feb. 2016 More Downside Retail Sales Risk, Thanks to Gas, Cheaper Imports (Publication Centre)

Outside the battered energy sector, the most consistently disconcerting economic numbers last year, in the eyes of the markets, were the monthly retail sales data. Non-auto sales undershot consensus forecasts in nine of the 12 months in 2015, with a median shortfall of 0.3%.

10 August. 2016 Trade Data Show Depreciations Take Time to Boost Growth (Publication Centre)

June's trade figures yesterday highlighted that it takes more than just a few months for exchange rate depreciations to boost GDP growth. The trade-weighted sterling index dropped by 9% between November and June as the risk of Brexit loomed large and the prospect of imminent increases in interest rates receded.

10 April 2018 Banxico Likely Will Hold Fire on Thursday, Inflation is Falling Rapidly (Publication Centre)

We expect Banxico to keep interest rates on hold at 7.50% at Thursday's meeting. But policymakers likely will adopt a slightly dovish tone, as inflation has fallen faster than they were expecting in their recent forecast.

1 June 2018 Brazil Started the Year with a Subpar Rebound, Will it Improve? (Publication Centre)

Data released on Wednesday confirmed that the Brazilian economy was relatively resilient in Q1. Leading indicators suggest that it will do well in Q2 and Q3, but downside risks are rising.

13 December 2017 Mexico's Manufacturing Starts Q4 Badly, but it Will Gradually Improve (Publication Centre)

Mexican industrial activity started the fourth quarter badly. Industrial production fell 0.1% month- to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate slightly up to -1.1% from -1.2% in September and -0.7% in Q3.

15 June 2018 Strong Consumption set to Boost Second Quarter GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

The headline May retail sales numbers were flattered by a 2.4% leap in the wildly volatile building materials component and a price-driven 2.0% surge in gasoline sales.

2 October 2017 Banxico Maintains a Neutral Tone, But Challenges are Approaching (Publication Centre)

Banxico left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 7.0% at last Thursday's policy meeting.

20 December 2017 Don't Lose Sleep Over the Possibility of a Corbyn Government (Publication Centre)

The possibility of a Corbyn-led Labour Government has been highlighted by some analysts as a major economic risk. Mr. Corbyn, however, has little practical chance of being elected soon.

20 July 2017 The June Housing Starts Rebound is not the Start of a Boom (Publication Centre)

We would like to be able to argue with conviction that the surge in June housing starts and building permits represents the beginning of a renewed strong upward trend, but we think that's unlikely.

19 January 2018 The COP and MXN are Rising, but Domestic Politics are a Big Hurdle (Publication Centre)

NAFTA-related news has been mixed over the last few weeks.

18 Dec. 2015 Should We be Worried by the Rise in the Saving Rate? (Publication Centre)

We have argued consistently since oil prices first began to fall that U.S. consumers would spend most of their windfall, so real spending would accelerate even as nominal retail sales growth was dragged down by the drop in the price of gas and other imported goods. At the same time, we argued that capital spending in the oil business would collapse, and that exports would struggle in the face of the stronger dollar.

16 October 2017 MXN to Remain under Strain due to NAFTA and Political Risks (Publication Centre)

The Mexican peso and spreads have recently come under severe pressure. Last week, for instance, the MXN plummeted 2% against the USD to 18.9, the weakest level since May, as our first chart shows.

Al Jazeera - EU-Japan free trade (Media Centre)

EU-Japan free trade: Japan and the European Union agreed on an outline for a massive trade deal this week that will rival the size of NAFTA, the free trade accord that the United States has with Canada and Mexico, currently the largest one in the world. Claus Vistesen, the chief eurozone economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, assesses what's in the agreement and why it matters (19mins 10 secs).

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