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7 June 2018 Should the ECB Teach Shorts in Italian Two-year BTPs a Lesson? (Publication Centre)

This week's uproar over the ECB's purchases of Italian debt in May--or lack thereof--shows that monetary policy in the euro is never far removed from the political sphere.

26 October 2018 It Would Take a Lot to Turn the ECB Away from Ending QE in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The ECB kept its cool yesterday, at the headline level, amid crashing stock markets, volatile BTPs and souring economic data.

27 February 2018 Is Shorting Italian Government Bonds the New Widowmaker? (Publication Centre)

Eurozone bond traders of a bearish persuasion are finding it difficult to make their mark ahead of Italy's parliamentary elections next weekend.

23 January 2019 More of the Same From German Bund Yields in 2019 (Publication Centre)

German 10-year yields have been trading according to a simple rule of thumb since 2017, namely, anything around 0.6% has been a buy, and 0.2%, or below, has been a sell.

22 October 2018 The EZ External Surplus is Being Boosted by Services Exports (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded over the summer, reversing its sharp decline at the start of Q3.

27 November 2018 What's the Risk of a Technical Recession in Germany (Publication Centre)

Last week's detailed Q3 GDP data in Germany verified that GDP fell 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, down from a 0.5% rise in Q2, a number which all but confirms the key story for the economy over the year as a whole.

29 Aug 2019 How About Slightly Stronger EZ GDP Growth in Q3 and Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's money supply data in the Eurozone were solid across the board.

6 Nov 2019 Some Preliminary Thoughts on EZ Fiscal Policy Next Year (Publication Centre)

Judging by interactions with readers in the past few weeks, fiscal policy is one of the most important topics for EZ investors as we move into the final stretch of the year.

4 Sept 2019 Will Italian 10-Year Yields Go to Zero We Don't See Why Not (Publication Centre)

We sympathise if readers are sceptical of our opening gambit in this Monitor.

22 November 2018 Will the EU Impose Sanctions on Italy over its Budget Deficit Plans (Publication Centre)

The EU Commission and Italy's government remain at loggerheads over the country's fiscal plans next year.

27 September 2018 What to Expect From Today's 2019 Budget Headlines in Italy (Publication Centre)

Today is a busy day in the Eurozone economic calendar, but we suspect that markets mainly will focus on the details of Italy's 2019 budget.

19 Mar 2020 The Initial Hit from Covid-19 is Disinflationary, then What? (Publication Centre)

A lot of ink has been spilled over the relative significance of the supply and demand effects of Covid-19, but the short-term story is clear.

13 Mar 2020 Mr. Trichet's Infamous 2011 Policy Mistake Just Got Bested (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting was a tragedy in two acts. Markets were initially underwhelmed by the concrete measures unveiled, and they were then shell-shocked by Ms. Lagarde's performance in the press conference.

13 December 2018 Expect a Dovish Mr. Draghi Today, but Don't Bet Money on It (Publication Centre)

We suspect that today's ECB meeting will be a sideshow to the political chaos in the U.K., but that doesn't change the fact that the central bank's to-do list is long.

12 Feb. 2015 Still waiting for growth in Italy (Publication Centre)

In yesterday's Monitor, we lamented the lack of growth in the French economy. The outlook is not much brighter in Italy. We think Italian GDP was unchanged quarter-on-quarter in Q4, slightly better than the -0.1% consensus but still very soft.

14 December 2018 Yesterday's ECB Meeting was a Vintage Performance by Mr. Draghi (Publication Centre)

The broad strokes of yesterday's ECB meeting were in line with markets' expectations. The central bank left its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged, at 0.00% and -0.4% respectively, and maintained the same forward guidance.

14 June 2018 The Countdown to the End of QE in the Eurozone Begins Today (Publication Centre)

The ECB will leave its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged at 0.00% and -0.4%, respectively,

21 May 2018 How do you Price the Risk of a Political Wildcard in Italy? (Publication Centre)

In our Monitor May 15 we described the initial government program in Italy, drafted by the leadership of the Five-Star Movement and the League parties, as a "macroeconomic fairytale."

18 Sept 2019 Can Investors Count on the EZ as Global Uncertainty Bites (Publication Centre)

Our colleagues have been telling some unpleasant stories recently.

17 Mar 2020 A Week on the Wild Side in EZ Equities, and It isn't Over Yet (Publication Centre)

The split between the reality reflected in the economic data and market pricing has never been wider in the euro area

*October 2018 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Poor Q3 GDP Data and Volatile BTPS Ahead...But Markets Already Have Priced-In A Lot Of Pain

Consistently Right

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