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42 matches for " brexit risk":

13 March 2018 Has the Brexit Risk Premium Disappeared? (Publication Centre)

Evidence that U.K. asset prices still are depressed by Brexit risk has become harder to find.

12 October 2018 The Run of Better Trade Data Will End Abruptly (Publication Centre)

Long-standing readers will know that we have been downbeat on the potential for net external trade to boost the economy following sterling's 2016 depreciation.

7 August 2018 Car Sales will Remain Stuck in the Slow Lane (Publication Centre)

It would be a mistake to conclude from July's car registrations data that the market finally has turned a corner.

13 February 2019 A Weaker Pound Wouldn't be a Silver Lining in a No-deal Dystopia (Publication Centre)

Brexiteers have downplayed the economic consequences of a no-deal exit by arguing that a further depreciation of sterling would cushion the blow.

04 Mar. 2016 Will the MPC Cut Rates to Counteract the Slowdown? (Publication Centre)

The chances of a cut in official interest rates were boosted yesterday by the sharp fall in the business activity index of the Markit/CIPS report on services in February, to its weakest level since April 2013. Its decline, to just 52.8 from 55.6 in January, mirrored falls in the manufacturing and construction PMIs earlier in the week and pushed the weighted average of the three survey's main balances down to a level consistent with quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of just 0.2% in Q1.

30 April 2019 No Boost to Business Confidence from the Brexit Delay (Publication Centre)

News that the U.K.'s departure from the E.U. has been delayed by six months, unless MPs ratify the existing deal sooner, appears to have done little to revive confidence among businesses.

4 July 2017 Will Firms Run Down Their Huge Cash Stockpiles Soon? (Publication Centre)

British firms have adopted a cautious mindset since the Brexit vote and are saving a huge share of their earnings, even though high profit margins make a strong case for investing more. Firms likely will run down their cash stockpiles when they become more confident about the medium-term economic outlook, potentially boosting GDP growth powerfully.

23 May. Is it Premature to Relax About Brexit Risk? (Publication Centre)

Sterling rebounded last week and the probability of a Brexit, implied by betting markets, fell from 30% to 20%. The gap between cable and interest rate expectations, which opened up at the start of this year, appears to have closed completely, as our first chart shows. Sterling's rally in April quickly ran out of steam, but the evidence that support for "Bremain" has risen recently is persuasive.

20 February 2019 Robust Labour Market Implies MPC Won't Dally After Brexit Risks Fade (Publication Centre)

Signs of a slowdown in the labour market data are conspicuously absent.

20 August 2018 Don't Believe the Scare Stories About Rising No-Deal Brexit Risk (Publication Centre)

Investors have become more concerned about a no-deal Brexit.

19 May. 2016 Fed on Course to Hike, Soon, but Will Brexit Risk Forestall June? (Publication Centre)

The April FOMC minutes don't mince words: "Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June".

26 February 2019 No-Deal Brexit Risk Likely Will Fall Further this Week (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister's announcement on Sunday that the meaningful vote in parliament on her Brexit deal will be delayed from this week, until March 12, came as no surprise after a series of prior postponements.

18 May. 2016 Did the FOMC Discuss Brexit Risk at the April Meeting? (Publication Centre)

The April FOMC statement dropped the March assertion that "global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks" to the U.S. economy, even though growth "appears to have slowed". Instead policymakers pointed out that "labor conditions have improved further", perhaps suggesting they don't take the weak-looking March data at face value. We certainly don't.

2 June. Brexit Risk Looms Large Over Credit Growth (Publication Centre)

Even an ardent Brexiteer could not deny that uncertainty about the outcome of the E.U. referendum is subduing bank lending. The Bank of England's preferred measure of bank lending--M4 lending excluding intermediate other financial corporations, or OFCs--fell by 0.1% month-to-month in April.

6 February 2018 The PMIs Show Brexit Risks are Continuing to Dampen Growth (Publication Centre)

The latest PMIs suggest that investors have jumped the gun in pricing-in a 50% chance of the MPC raising interest rates again as soon as May.

7 Oct 2019 Business Investment is not Destined to Slump, Despite Brexit Risks (Publication Centre)

Make no mistake, business investment has been depressed by Brexit uncertainty over the last year.

9 May. Inflation Report Forecasts Likely to Be Overshadowed by Brexit Risks (Publication Centre)

This week's Inflation Report--now released alongside the MPC's decision and minutes of its meeting in a deluge of releases now known as "Super Thursday"--is likely to be a damp squib.

15 June. Reasons to Remain Calm About Brexit Risk (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, six of the eight opinion polls conducted over the seven days indicate that the U.K. will vote for Brexit on June 23. Our daily updated Chart of the Week, on page 3, shows the current state of play.

29 Apr. House Price Trend to Remain Firm, Despite Tax Hikes and Brexit Risk (Publication Centre)

Housing market data yesterday fostered the view that prices are vulnerable to a fall following April's increase in stamp duty--a transactions tax-- and before the E.U. referendum in June. Political uncertainty, however, has rarely had a pervasive or sustained impact on prices in the past.

26 May. Second Estimate of Q1 GDP to Highlight Brexit Risk Damage (Publication Centre)

This morning's second estimate of Q1 GDP likely will restate the preliminary estimate of a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter rise, confirming that the economic recovery has lost momentum since last year. Meanwhile, the new expenditure breakdown is set to show that growth remained extremely dependent on households and will bring more evidence that businesses held back from investing, ostensibly due to Brexit concerns.

26 July 2019 A Guide to Gauging How Much No- Deal Brexit Risk is Priced-in (Publication Centre)

In our view, the chances of a no-deal Brexit on October 31 have not surged just because Boris Johnson has become Prime Minister and is gesticulating wildly at the Despatch Box.

13 Jan. 2016 Sterling Has Not Priced-in Brexit Risks Yet, Despite Recent Plunge (Publication Centre)

Claims abound that sterling's sharp depreciation since the start of the year--to its lowest level against the dollar since May 2010--partly reflects the growing risk that the U.K. will vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum. We see little evidence to support this assertion. Sterling's decline to date can be explained by the weakness of the economic data, meaning that scope remains for Brexit fears to push the currency even lower this year.

12 July 2018 Brexit Risk is Starting to Take a Heavy Toll on Exports (Publication Centre)

Hopes that GDP growth might be boosted soon by a pick-up in net exports continue to be undermined by the latest data.

10 May. Hold Your Nerve on Brexit Risk, Despite Troubling Polls (Publication Centre)

With just over six weeks to go, opinion polls continue to suggest that the E.U. referendum will be extremely close. Noisy interventions in the public debate from the Treasury, independent international bodies, President Obama, and from the Prime Minister again today have had no discernible positive impact on the support for "Bremain" relative to "Brexit"

10 September 2018 No Need for the MPC to Rock the Boat This Week (Publication Centre)

Lacklustre economic data and persistent no deal Brexit risk mean that the MPC won't rock the boat at this week's meeting.

18 December 2019 Global Monitor The Fed is signalling inaction (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The trade deal will lift business confidence, but only modestly • EUROZONE - A soft Q4 for the PMIs, but we think the bottom is in • U.K. - GDP growth will recover in Q1, before Brexit risks return • ASIA - Now the hard part begins in the U.S.-China trade talks • LATAM - Will President Fernández Solve the Debt Crisis in Argentina?

27 May. Q1 GDP Just the Beginning of a Prolonged Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The second estimate of Q1 GDP confirmed that the recovery has lost momentum and revealed that growth would have ground to a halt without consumers. GDP growth likely will slow further in Q2, as Brexit risk undermines business investment.

*Oct. 2016 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Inflation and Brexit risks will subdue growth.....Policy action won't prevent a slowdown

*March 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit risk currently is only depressing Capex....Rates need to rise to contain wage cost pressures

*December 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit Risk Increasingly is Hitting the Economy...But Above-Trend Growth Awaits After a Deal is Done

28 Apr. Don't Pin Your Hopes on a Post-Referendum Rebound (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 reflects more than just Brexit risk. The intensifying fiscal squeeze, the uncompetitiveness of U.K. exports, and the lack of spare labour suggest that the U.K.'s recovery now is stuck in a lower gear.

*November 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Election Won't Lower Brexit Risks Much....But Fiscal Stimulus Will Stop The MPC Cutting Rates

28 September 2018 Confidence is Starting to Fray as the Brexit Deadline Nears (Publication Centre)

The persistence of no-deal Brexit risk has taken a toll on confidence across the economy over the last month.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: The downturn is deepening, through a rapid rebound will emerge if no-deal Brexit risk subsides.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Work is continuing to dry up as no-deal Brexit risk mounts.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still broadly flat, as Brexit risk offsets support from solid wage growth.

28 July. 2016 Acceleration of Q2 GDP Won't Have Much Bearing on Stimulus Debate (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, the preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP suggests that the economic recovery weathered Brexit risk well. But growth received support from some unsustainable sources, and also probably was boosted by a calendar quirk. Meanwhile, with few firms or consumers expecting a vote for Brexit prior to the referendum, Q2's brisk growth tells us little about how well the economy will cope in the current climate of heightened uncertainty.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumers remain unperturbed by Brexit risks.

*April 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit Risk Currently Is Only Depressing Capex...Rates Will Rise Soon To Contain Wage Cost Pressures

29 August 2017 Is it Time to Turn Positive on the Outlook for Net Foreign Trade? (Publication Centre)

Britain still has nothing to show for sterling's depreciation, even though nearly two years have passed since markets started to price-in Brexit risk, driving the currency lower.

31 May. Are House Prices Near a Ceiling, or Just Temporarily Slowing? (Publication Centre)

Housing market activity has weakened sharply over the last two months. Indeed, figures this week likely will reveal that mortgage approvals plunged in April and that house price growth slowed in May. The increase in stamp duty for buy-to-let purchases at the start of April and Brexit risk, however, entirely explain the slowdown.

CNBC - Fed hike hint surprises economist (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Brexit risk to a June rate hike

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