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9 November 2017 Higher Oil Prices: Another Headwind for the Economy (Publication Centre)

The recent surge in the oil price has added to the headwinds set to batter the economy over the next year. The price of Brent crude has jumped by $10 since September to $64, its highest level since June 2015.

11 Mar. 2016 Brace for Volatility in the Trade Data as Oil Prices Swing (Publication Centre)

If Brent oil prices remain at their current $41 through the end of the second quarter--a big ask, we know, but you have to start with something--the average price of petroleum products imported into the U.S. will rise at an annualized rate of about 70% from their first quarter level.

9 Dec. 2015 Could Falling Oil Prices Delay the MPC Again? (Publication Centre)

The price of Brent oil has fallen sharply to $40 per barrel from about $50 just a month ago, and speculation is mounting that it could plunge to $20 soon. But CPI inflation should still pick up over coming months, provided oil prices remain above $30. And the absence of "second-round" effects of lower oil prices this year should reassure the Monetary Policy Committee that lower oil prices won't bear down on inflation over the medium-term.

26 April 2018 Higher Energy Prices won't Stop Inflation Falling Further this Year (Publication Centre)

The contribution of energy prices to CPI inflation is set to increase over the coming months, following the pick-up in Brent oil prices to $74 per barrel, from $65 at the beginning of March.

26 September 2018 Will Higher Energy Prices Prevent Inflation from Falling Further? (Publication Centre)

The rise in oil prices to a four-year high of $82 will slow the pace at which inflation falls back over the next year only modestly.

28 February 2017 Colombia's Economy is Struggling, but Further Easing is Coming (Publication Centre)

The Colombian economy was relatively resilient at the end of last year, but economic reports released during the last few weeks indicate that growth is still fragile, and that downside risks have increased. Real GDP rose 1.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.6% from 1.2% in Q3.

23 November 2018 Lower Oil Prices are Another Tailwind for 2019 (Publication Centre)

The recent plunge in oil prices is another positive development, alongside looser fiscal policy and the striking of a Brexit deal with the E.U., pointing to scope for GDP growth to pick up next year.

28 June 2017 Inflation Forecast Revisions in August won't Force the MPC's Hand (Publication Centre)

The minutes of the MPC's meeting in June indicated that several members' patience for tolerating for above-target inflation is wearing thin.

24 April 2019 Above-target CPI Inflation Will Return in Q2 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation was steadfast at 1.9% in March, undershooting the consensus and our forecast for it to rise to 2.0%.

7 December 2018 GDP to Stagnate Again in October, but Markets are Braced for the Worst (Publication Centre)

October's GDP report, released on Monday, might just manage to break through the wall of noise coming from parliament ahead of the key Brexit vote on Tuesday.

8 November 2018 September GDP Set To Undershoot the Consensus (Publication Centre)

Friday's GDP report likely will fuel concerns the economy has little underlying momentum. Granted, quarter-on-quarter growth probably sped up to 0.6% in Q3--exceeding the economy's potential rate--from 0.4% in Q2.

9 March 2018 January's Production Rebound will Conceal a Manufacturing Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The industrial sector went from strength to strength in 2017. Year-over-year growth in production picked up to 2.1%--its highest rate since 2010--from 1.3% in 2016.

8 December 2017 Production Likely Was Neither Strong Nor Stable in October (Publication Centre)

The 0.7% month-to-month rise in industrial production in September marked the sixth consecutive increase, a feat last achieved 23 years ago.

20 June 2019 Japan's Trade Balance has Troughed, Downside Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade balance deteriorated sharply in May, flipping to a ¥967B deficit from the modest ¥57B surplus in April.

6 April 2017 GDP Growth Likely Slowed in Q1, Despite The Rising Services PMI (Publication Centre)

The rise in Markit/CIPS services PMI to 55.0 in March, from 53.3 in February, brings some relief that GDP growth has not stalled in Q1, following manufacturing and construction surveys that signalled near-stagnation.

3 October 2017 Robust Overseas Demand Isn't Persuading Manufacturers to Invest (Publication Centre)

U.K. manufacturers are benefiting from rapid growth in the Eurozone, but increasingly they are being held back by weak domestic demand.

18 July 2018 Why are Chinese Property Prices Staging a Comeback (Publication Centre)

Chinese residential property prices appear to be staging a comeback, with new home prices rising 1.1% month-on-month in June, faster than the 0.8% increase in May.

12 April 2019 Inflation in China will Breach the 3% Target, but H2 is a Different Story (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in China surged to a five-month high of 2.3% in March, from 1.5% in February.

12 Apr. 2016 Foreign Trade Set to Boost Q2 Growth, Thanks to Dollar, Oil (Publication Centre)

We fully expect to learn today that import prices rose in March for the first time since June last year. Our forecast for a 1% increase is in line with the consensus, but the margin of error is probably about plus or minus half a percent, and an increase of more than 1.2% would be the biggest in a single month in four years. Most, if not all, of the jump will be due to the rebound in oil prices.

11 October 2018 Weak GDP in August Sets the Tone for the Rest of this Year (Publication Centre)

The stagnation of GDP in August, following five consecutive month-to-month gains, confirms that the economy's momentum in prior months was simply weather-related.

11 July 2019 Central Banks in Asia have Less Scope to Respond to PPI Deflation (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation in Asia looks set to go from bad to worse, following June's poor numbers, which showed that the weakness in commodity prices is feeding through quicker than expected.

12 October 2018 The Run of Better Trade Data Will End Abruptly (Publication Centre)

Long-standing readers will know that we have been downbeat on the potential for net external trade to boost the economy following sterling's 2016 depreciation.

13 November 2017 October's CPI Inflation Rate Should Represent the Peak (Publication Centre)

October's consumer price figures, released Tuesday, likely will show that CPI inflation increased to 3.1%, from 3.0% in September.

19 March 2019 Don't get Used to a Japanese Trade Surplus Just Yet (Publication Centre)

Japan's adjusted trade balance flipped back to a modest surplus of ¥116B in February, after seven straight months of deficit.

15 November 2018 CPI Inflation is Set to Undershoot the 2% Target as Soon as Q1 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 2.4% in October, undershooting the 2.5% consensus expectation and the MPC's forecast in this month's Inflation Report.

15 May 2019 From Zero to King's Landing, how Bad Could Chinese Trade Become (Publication Centre)

Following Chinese retaliation against new U.S. tariffs last week, the U.S. responded last night, as promised, setting in train the process to slap tariffs on the remaining approximately $300B of imports from China.

15 May 2017 April's Consumer Price Figures Will Surprise to the Upside (Publication Centre)

April's consumer price figures, released on Tuesday, look set to reveal that CPI inflation jumped to 2.7%--its highest rate since September 2013--from 2.3% in March. Inflation likely will be driven up entirely by a jump in the cor e rate to 2.3%, from 1.8% in March.

20 December 2018 CPI Inflation will be Below the 2% Target Right from the Start of 2019 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation fell to 2.3% in November--its lowest rate since March 2017--from 2.4% in October, and it remains on track to fall rapidly over the winter.

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