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91 matches for " bond yield":

26 January 2018 The Euro and EZ Bond Yields are not for Turning, Even by Mr Draghi (Publication Centre)

As expected, the ECB made no changes to its policy stance today. The refi and deposit rates were left at 0.00% and -0.4%, respectively, and the pace of purchases under QE was maintained at €30B per month.

14 November. 2016 Higher EZ Inflation and Bond Yields: Story Changing? (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed October CPI report in Germany confirmed that inflation pressures are steadily rising. Inflation rose to 0.8% year-over-year in October, from 0.7% in September, lifted mostly by a continuing increase in energy prices.

16 January 2017 Inflation and EZ Bond Yields Will Increase Gradually in 2017 (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone jumped in December, and will surge further in Q1 as base effects from last year's crash in oil prices push energy inflation higher. Higher inflation in the U.S. and surging Chinese factory gate prices indicate that this isn't just a Eurozone story.

28 March 2019 Further Signs that Negative Rates are Here to Stay in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Bond yields in the Eurozone took another leg lower yesterday.

20 November 2017 PBoC Lets up After Tightening Ahead of Fed Hikes (Publication Centre)

The PBoC has let up on its open-market operations after allowing bond yields to move higher again in October.

23 October 2018 Will Yields on Gilts Close the Gap with Treasuries? (Publication Centre)

The gap between U.K. and U.S. government bond yields has continued to grow this year and is approaching a record.

19 September 2018 Italian Budget Math Doesn't Add Up (Publication Centre)

Bond yields in Italy remain elevated, but volatility has declined recently; two-year yields have halved to 0.7% and 10-year yields have dipped below 3%.

19 October 2018 A Closer Look at Italy's Budget Plan for 2019 the EU Won't Like It (Publication Centre)

Italian bond yields have remained elevated this week, following the release of the government's detailed draft budget for 2019.

25 Feb 2020 The Fed will Blink if Markets have Many More Days Like Yesterday (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's stock market bloodbath stands in contrast to the U.S. economic data, most of which so far show no impact from the Covid-19 outbreak.

23 January 2019 More of the Same From German Bund Yields in 2019 (Publication Centre)

German 10-year yields have been trading according to a simple rule of thumb since 2017, namely, anything around 0.6% has been a buy, and 0.2%, or below, has been a sell.

25 October 2018 The Bank of Japan Turns its Attention to Real Estate Risks (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Japan's biannual Financial System Report was published earlier this week.

25 Feb 2020 Don't Expect the BoK to Jump the Gun with Counter-Virus Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea is likely to keep its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.25%, at its meeting this week.

25 April 2017 Are Further Tax Rises After the Election Inevitable? (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister's refusal last week to reaffirm her party's 2015 election pledge not to raise income tax, National Insurance or VAT has fuelled speculation that taxes will rise if the Conservatives are re-elected on June 8. Admittedly, Mrs. May asserted that her party "believes in lower taxes", and the tax pledge s till might appear in the Conservatives' manifesto, which won't be published for a few weeks.

24 Jan 2020 Ms. Lagarde Treads Water as the ECB Formally Unveils its Review (Publication Centre)

The ECB conformed to expectations today, at least on a headline level.

24 November. 2016 The Fiscal Fetters Remain in Place, Despite the Looming Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor's Autumn Statement dashed hopes that the fiscal consolidation will be paused while the economy struggles to adjust to the implications of Brexit. Admittedly, Mr. Hammond has another opportunity in the Spring Budget to reduce next year's fiscal tightening.

22 September 2016 Yield Curve Control Will be Tricky to Implement in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

We tend to keep a close eye on monetary policy initiatives in Japan, as the BOJ's fight to spur inflation in a rapidly ageing economy resembles the challenge faced by the ECB.

22 Aug 2019 Brexit from the Perspective of the EU It's Complicated and Risky (Publication Centre)

The stakes in the Brexit saga have been raised significantly over the summer.

20 December 2018 Pick a Multiple for EZ Equities Next Year, and Hope for the Best (Publication Centre)

This year has been sobering for Eurozone equity investors.

20 December 2017 The IFO Signals a Solid Q4 in Germany, Despite December Dip (Publication Centre)

German survey data did something out of character yesterday; they fell. The IFO business climate index declined to 117.2 in December from a revised 117.6 in November.

20 Aug 2019 July Dip in EZ Headline and Core Inflation Will Soon be Reversed (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone eased at the start of Q3.

20 April 2018 The EZ current account surplus is rising (Publication Centre)

The EZ's current account surplus is solid as ever, despite falling slightly in February to €35.1B, from an upwardly-revised €39.0B in January.

21 Jan 2020 A Tale of Why the ECB is Different from Most Other Central Banks (Publication Centre)

Economists refer to two different types of forward rate guidance by central banks: Delphic and Odyssean. The former describes a "normal" situation, in which the central bank follows a transparent rate-setting rule allowing markets to forecast what it will do, based on the flow of economic data.

21 March 2019 EZ Equity Investors Have Bought the Global Central Bank Put (Publication Centre)

The perfect world for equities is one in which earnings and valuations are rising at the same time, but in the Eurozone it seems as if investors have to make do with one or the other.

22 November 2018 Will the EU Impose Sanctions on Italy over its Budget Deficit Plans (Publication Centre)

The EU Commission and Italy's government remain at loggerheads over the country's fiscal plans next year.

26 July 2018 Today Will be a Copy Paste Job for Mr. Draghi and the ECB (Publication Centre)

Last month, the ECB set the scene for the majority of its key policy decisions over the next 12 months.

21 September 2016 A Reverse Twist by the BOJ would move EZ bond markets (Publication Centre)

Financial markets in the Eurozone will be pushed around by global events today. The Bank of Japan kicks off the party in the early hours CET, and the spectrum of investors' expectations is wide.

21 October. 2016 The ECB Treads Water, but Hints at December QE Extension (Publication Centre)

The ECB held fire yesterday. The central bank kept its main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.0%, and also maintained the deposit and marginal lending facility rates at -0.4% and 0.25% respectively.

22 October 2018 The EZ External Surplus is Being Boosted by Services Exports (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded over the summer, reversing its sharp decline at the start of Q3.

29 May 2018 A Peek into the Abyss of an Italian Parallel Currency and Euro Exit (Publication Centre)

We have to hand it to Italy's politicians. In an economy with a current account surplus of 3% of GDP, a nearly balanced net foreign asset position and with the majority of government debt held by domestic investors, the leading parties have managed to prompt markets to flatten the yield curve via a jump in shortterm interest rates.

5 Mar 2020 How far Will EZ Services Fall, and Will it Cause a Recession (Publication Centre)

It will take a while for the economic data in the euro area fully to reflect the Covid-19 shock, but the incoming numbers paint an increasingly clear picture of an improving economy going into the outbreak.

4 September 2018 EZ Manufacturing PMIs are Soft, but Base Effects will Lift Q3 data (Publication Centre)

Survey data in EZ manufacturing remain soft. Yesterday's final PMI report for August confirmed that the index dipped to 54.6 in August, from 55.1 in July, reaching its lowest point since the end of 2016.

4 Nov 2019 Are Markets Eyeing a Bottom in EZ GDP Growth? (Publication Centre)

We have spent the past few weeks shifting our story on the EZ economy from one focused on slowing growth and downside risks to a more balanced outlook. It seems that markets are starting to agree with us.

31 Mar 2020 The ECB Faces a Key Question, Yield Curve Control or Not (Publication Centre)

As we showed in yesterday's Monitor--see here--EZ governments and the ECB have thrown caution to the wind in their efforts to limit the pain from the Covid-19 crisis.

6 July 2017 Monte dei Paschi Finally is Restructured. Will it Work? (Publication Centre)

It's probably happening a decade too late, but the EU is now moving in leaps and bounds to restructure the continent's weakest banks. Yesterday, the Monte dei Paschi saga reached an interim conclusion when the Commission agreed to allow the Italian government to take a 70% stake in the ailing lender.

6 March 2017 Can Gilt Yields Remain Low While the World Reflates? (Publication Centre)

If 2017 really is the year of "reflation", somebody forgot to tell the gilt market. Among the G7 group, 10-year yields have fallen only in the U.K. during the last three months, as our first chart shows.

7 June 2018 Should the ECB Teach Shorts in Italian Two-year BTPs a Lesson? (Publication Centre)

This week's uproar over the ECB's purchases of Italian debt in May--or lack thereof--shows that monetary policy in the euro is never far removed from the political sphere.

7 June 2017 How to Prepare for a Eurozone Bond Market Without the ECB (Publication Centre)

Predicting which way markets would move in response to potential general election outcomes has been relatively straightforward in the past. But the usual rules of thumb will not apply when the election results filter through after polling stations close on Thursday evening.

7 December 2018 GDP to Stagnate Again in October, but Markets are Braced for the Worst (Publication Centre)

October's GDP report, released on Monday, might just manage to break through the wall of noise coming from parliament ahead of the key Brexit vote on Tuesday.

31 Jan 2020 EZ Core Inflation is Set to Drop More than Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that German inflation roared higher at the start of the year, but the devil is in the detail.

30 May 2018 New Elections Loom in Italy as Bond Markets Panic (Publication Centre)

Price action in Italian bonds went from hairy to scary yesterday as two-year yields jumped to just under 3.0%.

29 March 2017 The Alternative Interpretation of Political Uncertainty in the EZ (Publication Centre)

The presumption in markets is that the French presidential election is the last hurdle to be overcome in the EZ economy. As long as Marine Le Pen is kept out of l'Élysée, animal spirits will be released in the economy and financial markets. We concede that a Le Pen victory would result in chaos, at least in the short run. Bond spreads would widen, equities would crash and the euro would plummet. But we also suspect that such volatility would be short-lived, similar to the convulsions after Brexit.

28 June. 2016 Will Higher Inflation Keep Further Monetary Easing at Bay? (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor indicated yesterday that the current fiscal plans--which set out a 1% of GDP reduction in the structural budget deficit this year--will remain in place until a new Prime Minister is chosen by September 2. So for now, the burden of leaning against the imminent downturn is on the MPC's shoulders.

27 September 2018 What to Expect From Today's 2019 Budget Headlines in Italy (Publication Centre)

Today is a busy day in the Eurozone economic calendar, but we suspect that markets mainly will focus on the details of Italy's 2019 budget.

2 December. 2016 The Only Surprise this Weekend Would be if Renzi Wins (Publication Centre)

Opinion polls suggest that the Italian population will reject Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's constitutional reform on Sunday. Undecided voters could still swing it in favour of Mr. Renzi, but the "No" votes have led the "Yes" votes by a steady margin of about 52% to 48% since October.

29 November 2018 The Jump in EZ Money Growth is Deceptive M1 was Unchanged (Publication Centre)

Money supply growth in the Eurozone quickened last month, by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% year- over-year, but the details were less upbeat.

30 Mar 2020 Covid-19 is a Battering Ram to EZ Economic Policymaking  (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus outbreak, by definition, will fade eventually, but we suspect the measures to combat it will be more long-lasting. In terms of sheer scale, EZ governments and the ECB are throwing the kitchen sink at the virus, but that's only half the story.

3 June 2019 Economic Data Still Don't Warrant the Gilt Market's Gloom (Publication Centre)

Gilts continued to rally last week, with 10-year yields dropping to their lowest since October 2016, and the gap between two-year and 10-year yields narrowing to the smallest margin since September 2008.

3 August. 2016 The MPC Won't Be Afraid to Disappoint Markets' Stimulus Hopes (Publication Centre)

Many investors are betting that the MPC will announce a bold package of easing measures on Thursday. For a start, overnight index swap markets are pricing-in a 98% probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate to 0.25%, and a 30% chance that interest rates will fall to, or below, zero by the end of the year.

26 July 2019 Mr. Draghi Readies his Monetary Policy Bazooka for one Last Time (Publication Centre)

Markets were all over the place yesterday in response to the messages from the ECB.

17 June 2019 All Hail the Eurozone's Dying Government Bond Markets (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's sovereign bond markets are dying, and this is a good thing, by and large.

12 July 2018 Does Operation Twist in the Eurozone Make Sense (Publication Centre)

It would take nothing short of a catastrophe in coming months for the ECB to alter its plan to end QE via a three-month taper between September and December.

12 Aug 2019 A Looming Currency War Adds to the ECB's Dovish Convictions (Publication Centre)

The escalation in the U.S.-Chinese trade wars has understandably pushed EZ economic data firmly into the background while we have been resting on the beach.

12 June 2019 EZ Equities are at the Mercy of Multiple Expansion in H2 (Publication Centre)

Judging by the headline performance metrics, EZ equity investors have little cause for worry.

12 Sept 2019 Mr. Draghi and the ECB Won't Fail Us Today... We Hope (Publication Centre)

Today's ECB meeting is supposed to be a slam-dunk.

12 September 2017 Government Bonds in the EZ Enjoy Support Even Without QE (Publication Centre)

The EZ government bond market has been in a holding pattern for most of 2017. The euro area 10- year yield--German and French benchmark--is little changed from a year ago, though it is at the lower end of its range.

11 September 2018 EZ Investors are Still Depressed, Probably Excessively So (Publication Centre)

EZ investors remain depressed. The headline Sentix confidence index fell to 12.0 in September, from 14.7 in August, and the expectations gauge slid by three points to -8.8.

19 Aug 2019 Resistance is Futile in the EZ Fixed Income Bull Market... For Now (Publication Centre)

The ECB's communication to markets has been clear this year. In Q1, the central bank changed its stance on the economy towards an emphasis on "downside risks to the outlook".

1 August 2018 The BoJ Obfuscates as it Knocks Timidly on the Exit Door (Publication Centre)

The BoJ had two tasks at its meeting yesterday.

10 Mar 2020 It's Getting Sporty, a Brief Look at the Chaos in EZ Financial Markets (Publication Centre)

In this Monitor we'll let the data be, and try to make some sense of the recent market volatility from a Eurozone perspective, with an eye to the implications for the economy and policymakers' actions.

10 November. 2016 Market Reaction to Trump Shows Britain is No Longer a Safe-haven (Publication Centre)

Donald Trump's victory casts a shadow of political uncertainty over what had appeared to be a decent outlook for the U.S economy. The U.K.'s trade and financial ties with the U.S., however, are small enough to mean that any downturn on the other side of the Atlantic will have little impact on Britain.

10 October 2018 Did German GDP Growth Crash in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The hard data now point to a horrendous Q3 GDP print in Germany, which almost surely will constrain the advance EZ GDP print released on October 30.

13 February 2018 Are the Good Times over For EZ Bond and Equity Investors? (Publication Centre)

Storm clouds gathered over Eurozone financial markets last week. The sell-off in equities accelerated, pushing the MSCI EU ex-UK to an 11-month low.

11 October 2018 Italy's Government is Picking a Fight with Both Markets and the EU (Publication Centre)

Base effects were the key driver of yesterday's upbeat industrial production headline in Italy.

17 February 2017 EZ consumers' demand for new cars will slow in 2017 (Publication Centre)

EZ households' demand for new cars was off to a strong start in 2017. Car registrations in the euro area jumped 10.9% year-over-year in January, accelerating from a 2.1% rise in December. We have to discount the headline level of sales by about a fifth to account for dealers' own registrations. Even with this provision, though, the January report was solid. Growth rebounded in France and Germany, and a 27.1% surge in Dutch car registrations also lifted the headline. We think car registrations will rise about 1.5% quarter-onquarter in Q1, rebounding from a weak Q4. But this does not change the story of downside risks to private spending.

16 Sept 2019 The MPC Is Under No Pressure to Change its Tune (Publication Centre)

We look for yet another unanimous vote by the MPC to keep Bank Rate at 0.75% on Thursday, with no new guidance on the near-term outlook.

13 Sept 2019 The ECB Fires Both Barrels It Won't Stop Until CPI is at 2% (Publication Centre)

The ECB disappointed slightly on the big headlines in yesterday's policy announcements, but it delivered shock and awe with the details

17 Sept 2019 Our Take on the Shifts in EZ Bond Markets after the ECB's New Tools (Publication Centre)

From a macroeconomic perspective, the main shift in the ECB's policy stance last week was the change in forward guidance.

18 Nov 2019 What Rate Cuts? Markets Now Look for Unchanged ECB Policy (Publication Centre)

he ECB governing council gathered last week under the leadership of Ms. Lagarde for the first time to lay a battle plan for the course ahead.

16 June. 2016 EZ Inflation is in the Twilight Zone, But it Will Get Lighter Soon (Publication Centre)

Final May CPI data in the Eurozone today likely will confirm that inflation pressures edged marginally higher last month. We think inflation increased to -0.1% year-over-year, from -0.2% in April, as a result of slightly higher services inflation, and a reduced drag from falling energy prices.

16 December 2016 LatAm Currencies Sell-off Post Fed Hike, but they will Stabilize Soon (Publication Centre)

LatAm markets reacted relatively well to the Fed's rate hike on Wednesday, which was largely priced-in. The markets' cool-headed reaction bodes well for Latam central banks. But it doesn't mean that the region is risk-free, especially as Mr. Trump's inauguration day draws near.

14 October. 2016 German Inflation Will Rise Further in the Fourth Quarter (Publication Centre)

German inflation pressures are rising. Yesterday's final September CPI report showed that inflation rose to 0.7% year-over-year, from 0.4% in August, chiefly as a result of continued easing of deflation in energy prices.

15 Aug 2019 Germany's Economy is in Trouble, but the EZ as a Whole is Stable (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data showed that growth in the EZ slowed in the second quarter.

15 May 2018 Are Markets Complacent about Italy? (Publication Centre)

Italy is edging closer to a coalition government with the Five-Star Movement, the Northern League, and Forza Italia at the helm.

15 May 2018 Autos Likely Constrained April Retail Sales, Core Trend is Gently Upwards (Publication Centre)

The story of U.S. retail sales since last summer is mostly a story about the impact of the hurricanes, Harvey in particular.

4 Apr. 2016 ECB QE is Failing to Lift Equities, but Bond Yields are Being Crushed (Publication Centre)

Today's Sentix survey of Eurozone investor sentiment likely will remain downbeat. We think the headline index rose only trivially, to 6.0 in April from 5.5 in March, and that the expectations index was unchanged at 2.8. Weakness in equities due to global growth fears and negative earnings revisions likely is the key driver of below-par investor sentiment.

21 June 2018 What Does Enhanced Forward Guidance Mean for Bond Yields (Publication Centre)

Last week's ECB meeting--see here--made it clear that the central bank does not intend to jump the gun on rate hikes next year, even as QE is scheduled to end in Q4 2018.

16 October 2017 What has to Happen for Bund Yields to Reach 1% Next Year? (Publication Centre)

German 10-year government bond yields jumped at the end of 2016, but have since been locked in a tight range around 0.4%, despite a steady inflow of strong economic data.

17 July. 2015 A Dovish Mr. Draghi Assures Markets the ECB is Here to Help (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB press conference confirmed our view that Mr. Draghi is the periphery's friend, not enemy. Crucially, the central bank agreed to increase emergency liquidity assistance--ELA--to Greek banks by €900M. This is consistent tent with the agreement by the Eurogroup to give Greece €7B bridge financing, and shows the ECB is ready to act on the back of only a temporary truce between Greece and the EU. The increase in ELA is modest, and we doubt a painful restructuring of the banking system can be avoided. But with Greek bond yields falling, the available pool of collateral will go up, allowing the central bank to provide further relief in coming weeks.

12 October. 2016 The Rise in Gilt Yields Won't Run Out of Steam (Publication Centre)

Gilt yields have risen sharply over the last month, even though the Monetary Policy Committee is just one-third of the way through the £60B bond purchase programme announced in August. Government bond yields in other G7 economies also have increased, but not as much as in Britain.

12 May. 2016 EZ Inflation Expectations are Low, But Will Creep Higher Soon (Publication Centre)

The renewed decline in bond EZ bond yields has raised the question of whether inflation expectations will recover at all in this cycle. We think they will, and we also believe 10-year yields will rise towards 1%-to-1.2% towards the end of the year. But two factors will keep inflation expectations and yields in check in the near term.

12 April 2017 Inflation Pressures Remain more Intense than the MPC Expected (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 2.3% in March, as we and the consensus had expected. Nonetheless, the consumer price figures boosted sterling and bond yields, as the details of the report made it clear that inflation is on a very steep upward path.

12 August. 2016 Have Gilt Yields Finally Reached Their Floor? (Publication Centre)

Gilt yields have collapsed this year, aided by a surge in safe-haven demand, the much lower outlook for overnight interest rates and the resumption of QE. Bond yields also have fallen globally, but the drop in the ten-year gilt yields to a record low of 0.53%, from nearly 2% at the beginning of 2016, has greatly exceeded the declines elsewhere, as our first chart shows.

10 Apr. 2015 Bond duration in the Eurozone is being crushed by sovereign QE (Publication Centre)

The distortions in European fixed income markets have intensified following the initiation of the ECB's sovereign QE program. In the market for sovereigns, German eight-year bond yields are within a touching distance of falling below zero, and this week Switzerland became the first country ever to issue a 10-year bond with negative yields.

20 Nov. 2015 Will Corporate Yields Become a Good Leading Indicator Again? (Publication Centre)

In the years before the crash of 2008, if you wanted to know what was likely to happen to the pace of U.S. economic growth, all you needed to know was what happened to corporate bond yields a year earlier. The correlation between movements in BBB industrial yields--not spreads--and the changes in the rate of GDP growth, lagged by a year, was remarkably strong from 1994 through 2008, as our first chart shows. Roughly, a 50 basis point increase in yields could be expected to reduce the pace of year-over-year GDP growth--the second differential, in other words--by about 1.5 percentage points.

31 May 2018 Eurozone Headline Inflation is About to Zoom Past 2% (Publication Centre)

Many investors probably glossed over yesterday's barrage of data in the Eurozone, for fear of being caught out by another swoon in Italian bond yields. Don't worry, we are here to help.

7 June 2019 Did Mr. Draghi Inadvertently Snub Expectations for a Q4 Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

It says a lot about investor expectations that markets' reaction to yesterday's policy announcement by the ECB was marked by slight "disappointment," with EURUSD rallying and EZ bond yields rising.

26 July. 2016 What Impact Would QE Have on Gilt Yields? (Publication Centre)

We think that the higher inflation outlook means that the MPC will dash hopes of unconventional stimulus on August 4 and instead will opt only to cut Bank Rate to 0.25%, from 0.50% currently. The minutes of July's MPC meeting show, however, that the MPC is mulling all the options. As a result, it is worth reviewing how a QE programme might be designed and what impact it might have on bond yields.

29 Jan. 2015 Inflation data will be kind to bondholders, for now (Publication Centre)

Last week's QE announcement has made Eurozone inflation prints less important for investors, but the market will still be watching for signs of a turning point in benchmark bond yields. The data are unlikely to challenge bond holders in the short run, however, as the Eurozone probably slipped deeper into deflation in January.

28 June 2017 A Difficult Balancing Act for Mr. Draghi on Growth and Inflation (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi's speech yesterday in Portugal, at the ECB forum on Central Banking, pushed the euro and EZ government bond yields higher. The markets' hawkish interpretation was linked to the president's comment that "The threat of deflation is gone and reflationary forces are at play."

27 Aug 2019 EZ Mortgage Rates are Plunging Will Spending Rise in Response (Publication Centre)

The slide in global long-term bond yields, and flattening curves, have spooked markets this year, sparking fears among investors of an impending global economic recession.

The Street - US Yield Curve Hugs Inversion: Recession Signal Clouded by Negative Global Rates (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing the latest from the Fed

Consistently Right

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