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Search Results: 68
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18 Jan. 2016 BCRP Hikes Rates - BCCh on Hold, Both Maintain Hawkish Bias (Publication Centre)

The Andean economies have been punished with high inflation triggered by currency depreciation and El Niño. Under these circumstances, Peru's central bank, the BCRP, admitted defeat yet again in the face of these temporary inflationary effects, increasing interest rates by 25bp to 4.0% last Thursday, the third hike in five months. Inflation in Peru remains stubbornly high, climbing to 4.4% year-over-year in December from 4.2% in November, and the upside risks remain elevated.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold, but the BCRP will cut rates soon.

3 May 2017 BanRep Acted Boldly on Friday. Will the BCRP follow Suit Next Week? (Publication Centre)

Colombia's sluggish growth and near-term economic outlook resembles that of most other LatAm economies. Domestic demand is weak, credit conditions are tight, and confidence is depressed. The medium term outlook, however, is perking up, slowly.

16 April 2018 Banxico and BCRP to Keep Rates Cautiously on Hold this Year (Publication Centre)

Last week, the Bank of Mexico unanimously voted to leave the main rate on hold, at 7.50%, its highest level since early 2009.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru (Publication Centre)

In one line: Adopting a dovish stance as the economy fails to gather speed.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold, but ready to cut if the economic recovery falters.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Policymakers surprise markets by cutting rates.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rates on hold; trade tensions are a key risk to start policy normalization.

19 Jan. 2015 Peru's Central Bank Committed to Boost Economic Growth (Publication Centre)

In a surprise move, Peru's central bank, BCRP, succumbed to the current weakness of the economy and cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.25% last Thursday, for the first time since August last year. The board also lowered the interest rates on lending and deposit operations between the central bank and financial institutions.

14 Dec. 2015 Peru's Central Bank Tightens Again to Contain Inflation Pressures (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank, the BCRP, admitted defeat again in the face of the inflationary effects of the PEN's depreciation and El Niño, increasing interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% last Thursday, following its 25bp increase in September. Peru is the third LatAm economy in the last few months to raise rates in response to currency weakness, despite sluggish economic growth. The key problem for Peru is that inflation has been trending higher since early 2013 and has remained stubbornly high, above 2.8% all this year. "Temporary" factors just keep on coming.

14 Mar. 2016 Peru Hold Rates, But Tightening Cycle Hasn't Ended Just Yet (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank, the BCRP, kept borrowing costs at 3.25% last week, surprising the consensus forecast for a 25bp increase. This was an unexpected move because inflation risks have not abated much since the previous meeting, when policymakers lifted rates for the third straight month.

18 Feb. 2015 Economic Activity Likely to Improve in Peru this Year, Gradually (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank, BCRP, left rates unchanged last week, at 3.25%, a four-year low. Above-target inflation and currency volatility prevented the Board from cutting rates.

12 July 2017 Andean Policymakers Will Meet Market Expectations Tomorrow (Publication Centre)

Markets are looking for the BCCh to remain on hold and the BCRP to ease on Thursday; we think they will be right. In Chile, the BCCh will hold rates because inflation pressures are absent and economic activity is stabilizing following temporary hits in Q1 and early Q2.

3 Sept 2019 Andean Economies Start Q3 on a Good Note, Argentina on the Brink (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday show that the Chilean economy had a weak start to the second half of the year.

3 March 2017 Banxico is Facing a Tough Dilemma, but the Copom is Sitting Pretty (Publication Centre)

Banxico's Quarterly Inflation Report--QIR--for Q4 2016, published this week, confirmed that the monetary authority is concerned about the slowing pace of economic activity and rising inflation pressures. Banxico noted that signs of a recovery have emerged in external demand, but it also pointed out that the Trump administration might impose policies which would hit FDI flows into Mexico.

4 December 2018 The China-U.S Trade Truce Eases Downside Risks for Chile and Peru (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets and currencies enjoyed a good start to the week, following the agreement between the U.S. and China to pause the trade war.

5 April 2017 The Brazilian Economy is Improving: Expect a Modest Q1 GDP Recovery (Publication Centre)

Brazilian February industrial production data, released yesterday, were relatively positive. Output rose 0.1% month-to-month, pushing the yearover- year rate down to -0.8% from 1.4% in January. Statistical quirks were behind February's year-over-year fall, though.

4 Oct 2019 Will Peru's Political Crisis Dent the Economic Recovery (Publication Centre)

Peru is now in the grip of a severe political storm that is shaking the country's foundations and darkening the already fragile economic outlook.

4 Nov 2019 Brazil's Industrial Sector Improved in Q3, Colombia's Economy is Strong (Publication Centre)

Thursday and Friday were busy days for LatAm economy watchers. In Brazil, the data underscored our view that the economy is on the mend, but the recent upturn remains shaky, and external risks are still high.

28 March 2017 Andes' Countries Hit by Temporary Shocks, Monetary Policy to Help (Publication Centre)

Recent data have confirmed that Colombian economic activity is still fragile, and that downside risks increased in Q1 as oil prices hav e slipped. The ISE economic activity index rose just 1.0% year-over-year in January, down from a 1.6% average gain in Q4.

21 June 2017 Q3 LatAm FX Will be Driven by Fundamentals and Commodities (Publication Centre)

LatAm investors' concerns about U.S. monetary policy expectations and the broad direction of the USD should on the back burner until the Fed hikes again, likely in September. This will leave room for country-specific drivers to take centre stage. That should support Mexico's MXN, which already has risen 14% year-to-date against the USD, erasing its losses after the US election last November.

28 Jan. 2015 Economic Momentum Means no Easing in Mexico this Year (Publication Centre)

Mexico's central bank, Banxico, will hold its first monetary policy meeting of this year tomorrow. It will break with tradition, holding the meeting on Thursday at 1:00 p.m, local time, instead of the previous 9:00 a.m slot.

5 December 2017 Andean Economies Are Surprising Positively, but Politics is a Risk (Publication Centre)

Peru's inflation continues to surprise to the downside, paving the way for an additional rate cut next week.

20 February 2019 Peru's Economic Activity is Improving, Offsetting External Risks (Publication Centre)

Peru's economic recovery gathered strength late last year.

3 Dec 2019 Tariffs on Steel Aluminium Highlight Downside Risks for LatAm (Publication Centre)

President Trump tweeted yesterday that he wants to re-introduce tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Brazil and Argentina, after accusing these economies of intentionally devaluing their currencies, hurting the competitiveness of U.S. farmers.

3 January 2018 Synchronized Recovery in the Andes. Inflation Continues to Fall (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent weeks have confirmed that the Andean economies retained a degree of momentum in Q4, with inflation well under con trol.

6 September. 2016 Chile's Economy Still Under Strain, but Recession Will be Avoided (Publication Centre)

Chile's economy remains under pressure, at least temporarily. After signs of recovery in Q1, activity deteriorated in Q2 and at the start of the third quarter. The sluggish global economy--especially China, Chile's main trading partner--is exacerbating the domestic slowdown, hit by low business and consumer confidence.

7 November. 2016 U.S. Election is the Big Threat for LatAm Markets (Publication Centre)

The U.S. Presidential election will set the tone for LatAm's markets this week. Hillary Clinton's dwindling lead over Donald Trump in recent polls has unleashed pressure on EM assets.

7 November 2017 Central Bank in Argentina and Peru to Leave Rates on Hold this Week (Publication Centre)

Argentina's central bank likely will leave its main interest rate at 27.75% tomorrow at its biweekly monetary policy meeting.

8 April 2019 Andean Economies Hoping for a U.S.-China Trade Deal Soon (Publication Centre)

Fears of a Chinese hard landing have roiled financial and commodity markets this past year and have constrained the economic recovery of major raw material exporters in LatAm.

8 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil Supports a Dovish BCB, Mexican Capex Rebounded (Publication Centre)

Headline inflation in Brazil remained low in October, and even breached the lower bound of the BCB's target range.

9 Dec 2019 Inflation is Ending the Year at a Comfortable Rate, but Threats Loom (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday showed that November inflation was in line with, or below, expectations in Brazil, Colombia and Chile.

7 January 2019 Chile's Economic Upturn Stuttered in Q4, Risks to Growth are Rising (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic outlook is still positive, but clouds have been gradually gathering since mid-year, due mostly to the slowdown in China, low copper prices and falling consumer and business confidence.

2 Oct. 2015 Economic Activity Remains Weak in Chile - But the BCCh Will Act (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic indicators for July were unreservedly weak, confirming that the economic recovery remains sluggish. The industrial production index--comprising mining, manufacturing, and utility output--fell by 5.2% year-over-year in August, after a 1.7% contraction in July. Mining production suffered a sharp 9.3% year-over-year contraction, due mainly to an 8.3% fall in copper production, as strikes and maintenance works badly hit the industry.

5 November 2018 The Labour Market in the Andes is Struggling, Can it Improve in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Chile's unadjusted unemployment rate fell to 7.1% in July-to-September, from 7.3% in June-to-August, but it was up from 6.7% in September last year.

5 Nov 2019 Chilean Private Demand will Slow in Q4, Rising Exports will Ease the Pain (Publication Centre)

Economic conditions are deteriorating rapidly in Chile, despite the relatively decent Imacec reading for Q3.

5 September 2017 BanRep's Hawks want Proof the Coming In ation Jump is Noise (Publication Centre)

Colombia's Central Bank is about to face a short-term dilemma. The recent fall in inflation will be interrupted while economic growth, particularly private spending, will struggle to build momentum over the second half.

6 March 2018 Andean Economies are Improving, but Protectionist Threats Are a Risk (Publication Centre)

Chile's IMACEC economic activity index rose 3.9% year-over-year in January, up from 2.6% in December, and 2.9% on average in Q4, thanks to strong mining output growth and solid commercial, manufacturing and services activity.

6 Nov 2019 Minutes Confirm COPOM's Cautious Tone, Mexico's Inflation to Fall Ahead (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's minutes of the October 31 COPOM meeting, at which the Central Bank cut the Selic rate unanimously by 50bp at 5.00%, reaffirmed the committee's post-meeting communiqué, which signalled that rates will be cut by the "same magnitude" in December.

5 February 2019 Economic and Inflation Conditions Remain Benign in the Andes (Publication Centre)

Colombia's BanRep stuck to the script on Thursday by leaving the policy rate on hold at 4.25%.

16 Sept 2019 Argentina's Inflation Edged Up in August, Expect Further Bad News (Publication Centre)

Data released last week in Argentina reaffirm that President Macri remains in a challenging position ahead of the October 27 presidential election.

14 August 2017 Peru's Central Bank Holds Rates but Points to Further Stimulus (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.75% last week, but signalled that further easing is on the way. According to the press release accompanying the decision, policymakers noted that inflation expectations are within their target range and still falling.

12 Nov 2019 Mexico's Industrial Sector did Well in Q3, but Leading Indicators are Grim (Publication Centre)

Mexico's industrial sector did relatively well in Q3, due mainly to the resilience of the manufacturing sector, and the rebound in construction and oil output, following a long period of sluggishness.

14 November. 2016 Brazil's Private Spending was Weak in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Volatility and risk will remain high in L atAm for the foreseeable future. President-elect Donald Trump's uncertain foreign policies could have a considerable impact on LatAm economies in the months and years ahead.

15 January 2019 Mexican Capex Improved Slightly in Early Q4, but Uncertainty is a Drag (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday showed that gross fixed investment in Mexico started Q4 on a decent note, increasing on the back of healthy purchases of imported machinery and equipment and construction spending.

19 June 2019 Another One Bites the Dust Growth Cools Temporarily in Peru (Publication Centre)

Peru's April supply-side monthly GDP data confirm that the economic rebound lost momentum at the start of the second quarter.

12 June 2017 Brazil's Inflation is in Check, but Politics are Paramount (Publication Centre)

Brazilian political risk remains high but, as we have argued in previous Monitors, it is unlikely to deter policymakers from further near-term monetary easing. The political crisis, however, does suggest that the COPOM will act cautiously, waiting until the latest storm passes before acting more aggressively, despite ongoing good news on the inflation front.

11 October 2017 Peru's Central Bank Likely Will Ease Tomorrow, but Room has Shrank (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank likely will cut its main interest rate by 25bp to 3.25% on Thursday. Inflation dipped in September and likely will increase only marginally in October, while economic growth was relatively sluggish at the start of Q3.

10 Dec 2019 Well-behaved Inflation in Mexico and Colombia, A Relief for Policymakers (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation and activity data in Mexico were dovish.

11 December 2018 Oil and FX Pass-through to Inflation Are Crosswinds in the Andes (Publication Centre)

The recent FX depreciation and falling oil prices are driving the dynamics of inflation across the Andean economies.

11 Mar. 2015 Fed Rate Hike Fears Now the Key Worry For LatAm Central Banks (Publication Centre)

Inflation appears no longer to be an issue for Mexican policymakers. The annual headline rate slowed to 3.0% year-over-year in February from 3.1% in January, in the middle of the central bank's target range, for the first time since May 2006.

11 Oct 2019 Inflation Surprises to the Downside in September: Rate Cuts Loom (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation numbers across the biggest economies in LatAm have surprised to the downside, strengthening the case for further monetary easing.

15 Oct 2019 Brazil's Modest Recovery Continues, Peru's Central Bank to Cut Soon (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday from Brazil support our view that the economic recovery continues, but progress has been slow.

15 May 2017 Mexican Manufacturing set to Remain Resilient in Q2 and Q3 (Publication Centre)

Recent industrial data for Mexico point to renewed upside risks for GDP growth, despite the likely headwind to consumption from high inflation and depressed confidence.

17 October. 2016 Banxico Minutes Confirm that FX Speculation is the Key Rate Threat (Publication Centre)

Banxico is one of the few central banks in LatAm to have hiked rates in 2016, and we expect it to remain relatively hawkish in the face of external risks.

18 December 2017 The Easing Cycle is Ending in Most of LatAm, Mexico will be the Outlier (Publication Centre)

Most central banks in LatAm have ended the year in a relatively comfortable position; their economies are improving and inflation is under control or even falling.

18 September 2017 Andean Easing Cycle Likely is Over, Growth is Picking up, at Last (Publication Centre)

Policymakers in Chile left rates unchanged at their monetary policy meeting last week, maintaining their neutral bias.

19 Aug 2019 The Intensification of the Trade War Forces Rate Cuts in LatAm (Publication Centre)

While we were away, EM growth prospects and risk appetite deteriorated significantly, due mainly to rising geopolitical risks, weaker economic prospects for DM, and, in particular, the most recent chapter of the global trade war.

16 Feb. 2015 Central Banks in LatAm Concerned about Inflation Pass-Through (Publication Centre)

Central banks in Chile, Peru, and Mexico hogged the market spotlight last week. Chile left its main interest rate at 3.0% on Thursday, for the fourth consecutive meeting.

17 January 2018 Peru's Economy Hit by Temporary Factors in Q4, Will 2018 be Better? (Publication Centre)

Monday's economic activity data from Peru signalled that the gradual recovery continues, despite November's undershoot, which was chiefly driven by temporary factors.

16 January 2017 Inflation Pressure Remains High in Argentina, but Will Fade This Year (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressure remained relatively high in Argentina last year, due mostly to the legacy of the Kirchner era. But we think inflation will ease this year, given the lagged effects of the recession and the fiscal consolidation.

17 December 2018 Peru's Economy Will Remain the Outperformer in LatAm Next Year (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank kept the reference rate unchanged at 3.5% at Thursday's meeting, in line with our view and market expectations.

16 July 2019 Better External Conditions will Support Brazil's Recovery (Publication Centre)

The ramifications of continued disappointing Asian growth, particularly in China, and its impact on global manufacturing, are especially hard-felt in LatAm.

16 Mar. 2015 Temporary Reversal - Bad Numbers for Mexico, Good for Brazil (Publication Centre)

Two key points can be extracted from the minutes of the last BCB meeting, when policymakers increased the Selic interest rate by 50bp to 12.75%. First, the bank recognized that the balance of risks to inflation has deteriorated, due to the huge adjustment of regulated prices and the BRL's depreciation, but it specifically referred only to "this year" in the communiqué.

16 October 2018 Mexican Consumption Growth will Improve Over the Next Quarters (Publication Centre)

Economic activity in Mexico during the past few months has been improving gradually, as external and domestic threats appear to have diminished.

14 Sept. 2015 Mexico's industrial output slowed in August: The recovery Is feeble (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank, the BCRP, capitulated to the sharp PEN depreciation this year--and acceleration of inflation--and unexpectedly increased interest rates by 25bp to 3.50% last Thursday, for the first time since January. This was a brave step, showing that policymakers are extremely worried about the pace of inflation, despite activity still running below potential. The BCRP argues, though, that activity will accelerate during the coming quarters, so they need now to control inflation by anchoring expectations.

15 Feb. 2016 Central Banks Keep Tightening Bias As USD Still A Concern (Publication Centre)

LatAm economies are being battered by high inflation triggered by currency sell-offs and El Niño supply shocks, so rates have had to rise despite the challenging global environment. Peru's central bank, the BCRP, was forced to increase interest rates by 25bp to 4.25% last Thursday, the fourth hike in six months, as inflation is far above the central bank's 1-to-3% target range.

15 August. 2016 Dovish, but Vigilant Policymakers in LatAm - the Fed is the Key Risk (Publication Centre)

Last week, Banxico, the BCCh and the BCRP all left their reference rates on hold. Their currencies have remained relatively stable in recent months and inflation pressures are under control. In Mexico, Banxico has adopted a more discretionary approach, following two 50bp hikes this year.

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