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24 Jan 2020 Don't Worry About the Downshift in Bank Lending to Businesses, it Lags (Publication Centre)

You could be forgiven for being alarmed at the 1.5% decline in the stock of outstanding bank commercial and industrial lending in the fourth quarter, the first dip since the second quarter of 2017.

31 October 2017 The Slowdown in Bank Lending will Gather Momentum Soon (Publication Centre)

Growth in the broad money supply slowed further in September, providing more evidence that the economy is losing momentum.

24 July 2019 The ECB's Q2 Lending Survey Provides Support for ECB Doves (Publication Centre)

The headline in yesterday's ECB Q2 bank lending survey seemed almost tailor-made for the central bank to deliver a dovish message to markets this week.

9 June 2017 Bank C&I Lending has Levelled-off, Expect a Second-Half Rebound (Publication Centre)

The rollover in bank lending to commercial and industrial companies probably is over. On the face of it, the slowdown has been alarming, with year-over-year growth in the stock of lending slowing to just 2.6% in April, from a sustained peak of more than 10% in the early part of last year.

29 Aug 2019 How About Slightly Stronger EZ GDP Growth in Q3 and Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's money supply data in the Eurozone were solid across the board.

3 August 2017 Will the MPC Call Time on the Term Funding Scheme? (Publication Centre)

We see only a small risk today of the MPC raising interest rates or sending a strong signal that a hike is imminent, for the reasons we set out in our preview of the meeting. The MPC, however, also must decide today whether to wind up the Term Funding Scheme-- TFS--launched a year ago as part of its post-Brexit stimulus measures.

3 Dec 2019 Is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI Uptrend Justified (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs put in a better performance in November, with the official gauge ticking up to 50.2 in November, from 49.3 in October, and the Caixin measure little changed, at 51.8, up from 51.7.

27 May 2020 No Need for Negative Rates When the TFSME Can be Enhanced (Publication Centre)

Speculation that the MPC will abandon its aversion to negative rates has increased, following recent comments by Committee members.

27 October 2017 The ECB Announces Reduced QE Next Year, and Markets Like It (Publication Centre)

The ECB broadly conformed to markets' expectations today. The central bank maintained its key refinancing and deposit rates at 0.00% and -0.4% respectively, and delivered the consensus package on QE.

3 Jan 2020 Korean Two-Way Trade Ends 2019 on a High Note, Salvaging Q4 (Publication Centre)

Korean trade ended the year strongly, salvaging what was shaping up as a dull fourth quarter for the economy.

28 January 2019 PBoC CBSs: Not Quite QE, but Potentially a Useful Step (Publication Centre)

Last week the Chinese authorities issued a series of new measures to help with bank recapitalisation, and, we think, to supplement interbank liquidity.

28 February 2017 The Eurozone Business Cycle Upturn is Resilient and Robust (Publication Centre)

Money supply dynamics in the Eurozone continue to signal a solid outlook for the economy. Headline M3 growth eased marginally to 4.9% year-over-year in January, from 5.0% in December; the dip was due to slowing narrow money growth, falling to 8.4% from 8.8% the month before. The details of the M1 data, however, showed that the headline chiefly was hit by slowing growth in deposits by insurance and pension funds.

31 August. 2016 Cheaper Borrowing Costs Won't Reignite Firms' Investment Appetite (Publication Centre)

July's money and credit figures provided more evidence that firms have become reluctant to invest following the Brexit vote. Lending by U.K. banks to private non-financial companies--PNFCs--rose by just 0.2% month-to-month in July, below the average 0.5% increase of the previous six months.

5 Nov 2019 China Faces a Mix of Spiking CPI Inflation and Ongoing PPI Deflation (Publication Centre)

China is facing a nasty mix of spiking CPI inflation and ongoing PPI deflation.

7 February 2018 The Economic Fallout from the Plunge in Equities will be Modest (Publication Centre)

As things stand, we see little reason to revise down our forecasts for the U.K. economy in response to the tailspin in equity markets

4 April 2017 Sterling's Depreciation is a Mixed Blessing for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

The latest Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey has dashed hopes that sterling's depreciation and the pickup in global trade will facilitate strong growth in U.K. production this year. The PMI dropped to 54.2 in March, from 54.6 in February.

31 July 2018 Money and Credit Data Cast Doubt Over the Viability of Q2's Upturn (Publication Centre)

June's money and credit figures showed that the economy still doesn't have much zing, even though lending has picked up since Q1.

31 August 2017 Does the Corporate Borrowing Surge Signal a Capex Recovery? (Publication Centre)

The summer usually is a quiet time for business, but seemingly not for CFOs this year. Yesterday's money and credit figures from the Bank of England showed that borrowing by private non-financial corporations has rocketed. Net finance raised by PNFC's from all sources increased by £8.9B in July, compared to an average increase of just £2.5B in the previous 12 months.

24 October 2018 The Double-Digit Fall in Equity Prices Bolsters Case for MPC Inertia (Publication Centre)

The FTSE 100 has dropped by 7% since the end of September--leaving it on course for its worst month since May 2012--and now is 12% below its May peak.

30 Jan 2020 Don't Panic Over the Slump in EZ M3 Growth, M1 Still Looks Firm (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the euro area were mixed.

21 Nov 2019 Japan's Two-way Trade will Remain in the Doldrums Well Into 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japanese trade remained in the doldrums in October, keeping policymakers on their toes as they repeat the refrain of "resilient" domestic demand.

15 January 2018 Chinese Import Growth Slowdown Paints an Overly Gloomy Picture (Publication Centre)

China's import growth in dollar terms slowed sharply to 4.5% year-over-year in December from 17.7% in November, significantly below the consensus forecast.

24 October 2018 EZ Households Face Uncertainty, Despite Solid Fundamentals (Publication Centre)

Consumer confidence in the Eurozone rose marginally at the start of Q4, though it is still down since the start of the year.

13 February 2019 Few Near-Term Upside Risks to Core Inflation Medium-Term Threat Rising (Publication Centre)

The odds favor--just--an end to the three-month streak of solid 0.2% increases in the core CPI with the release of today's January report.

13 February 2017 What Would it Take to Persuade the Fed to Hike in March? (Publication Centre)

Our argument that rates could rise as soon as March has always been contingent on two factors, namely, robust labor market data and a degree of clarity on the extent of fiscal easing likely to emerge from Congress. On the first of these issues, the latest evidence is mixed.

11 April 2019 Mr. Draghi Kicks the Can on TLTROs and a Tiered Deposit Rate (Publication Centre)

The ECB made no changes to its policy stance yesterday.

18 Dec 2019 Banxico to Cut Rates Even Further, but the COPOM is Almost Done (Publication Centre)

Banxico will meet tomorrow, and we expect Mexican policymakers to cut the main interest rate by 25bp, to 7.25%.

15 July. 2016 The Mexican Economy is at the Mercy of Softening Spending (Publication Centre)

Industrial data released this week showed that the Mexican economy stumbled during the second quarter. Private consumption, however, continues to rise, albeit at a more modest pace than in recent months. The ANTAD same store sales survey rose 5.3% year-over-year in June, up from 2.8% in May, but this is misleading.

19 Dec 2019 Don't Expect China's LPR to Move Much, if at all, for December (Publication Centre)

The PBoC reduced its 14-day reverse repo by 5bp to 2.65% in a routine operation yesterday.

21 Jan 2020 The PBoC Probably Wants to see Lower Rates, Despite Stable LPR (Publication Centre)

China's Loan Prime Rate was unchanged this month, at 4.15%, with consensus once again expecting a reduction to 4.10%.

22 Jan 2020 The Outlook for the Q1 PMI Data Suddenly Looks Great (Publication Centre)

Investor sentiment data still indicate that EZ PMIs are set for a significant rebound at start of the year.

20 Apr 2020 Re-opening Dangers Vary Across the U.S., but Nowhere is Risk-Free (Publication Centre)

We understand the desire of investors and individuals to see the economy re-opening as soon as possible, but the data right now support only a limited opening in some parts of the country and, hence, a limited late spring/summer rebound in the economy.

2 January 2018 Bank Lending in the Eurozone Will Strengthen Further in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The economic calendar in the euro area was relatively quiet over Christmas, and broadly conformed to our expectations.

19 July 2017 Credit Conditions in the Eurozone Continue to Support the Recovery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB bank lending survey suggests that credit conditions remain favourable for the EZ economy. Credit standards eased slightly for business and mortgage lending and were unchanged for consumer credit.

2 June. Brexit Risk Looms Large Over Credit Growth (Publication Centre)

Even an ardent Brexiteer could not deny that uncertainty about the outcome of the E.U. referendum is subduing bank lending. The Bank of England's preferred measure of bank lending--M4 lending excluding intermediate other financial corporations, or OFCs--fell by 0.1% month-to-month in April.

20 Apr. 2016 EZ Credit Supply Conditions Eased in Q1, but Loan Demand Stumbled (Publication Centre)

Lending conditions in the EZ economy continued to improve in Q1, according to the ECB's bank lending survey. Business and consumer credit supply conditions eased, but mortgage lending became more difficult to come by as standards tightened sharply in Germany, France, and the Netherlands. Demand for new loans also rose, but the increase was due entirely to gains in the mortgage and consumer credit components.

05 Jan. 2016 Credit Flows Aren't Strengthening Enough to Prevent a Slowdown (Publication Centre)

November's money and credit figures brought welcome news that the recovery in bank lending is strengthening. This revival should continue, now that banks have completed most of the work required to improve their capital positions. But we doubt lending will recover quickly enough to prevent the economic recovery slowing in 2016, as the downward pressure on growth from the fiscal squeeze and the strong pound builds.

Consistently Right

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