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1 Oct 2019 Brazilian Assets Performed Well in Late Q3, Despite High External Risk (Publication Centre)

Brazilian assets were hit in Q3 by global external challenges, while domestic fundamentals gradually improved.

12 April 2017 Don't Worry About the Weakness in C&I Lending, it will Rebound (Publication Centre)

Friday's weekly report on the assets and liabilities of U.S. commercial banks will complete the picture or March and, hence, the first quarter. It won't be pretty. With most of the March data already released, a month-to-month decline in lending to commercial and industrial companies of about 0.7% is a done deal. That would be the biggest drop since May 2010, and it would complete a 1% annualized fall for the first quarter, the worst performance since Q3 2010. The year-over-year rate of growth slowed to just 5.0% in Q1, from 8.0% in the fourth quarter and 10.3% in the first quarter of last year.

7 November. 2016 U.S. Election is the Big Threat for LatAm Markets (Publication Centre)

The U.S. Presidential election will set the tone for LatAm's markets this week. Hillary Clinton's dwindling lead over Donald Trump in recent polls has unleashed pressure on EM assets.

10 October. 2016 The Sterling Crisis has Tied Policymakers' Hands (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s dependence on large inflows of external finance was laid alarmingly b are last week, when "hard" Brexit talk by politicians caused overseas investors to give sterling assets a wide berth. Investors now are demanding extra compensation for holding U.K. assets, because the medium-term outlook is so uncertain.

20 Jan. 2015 Current Account Surplus Stays Robust, but Watch Deficit in Spain (Publication Centre)

Eurozone current account data yesterday provided further evidence of stabilisation in the economy despite a headline deterioration. The adjusted current account surplus fell to €18.1B in November from a revised €19.5B in October, but the decline was mainly driven by an increase in current transfers; the core components remain solid.

20 February 2017 Is the Eurozone Construction Sector is Back in Business? (Publication Centre)

Construction in the euro area stumbled at the end of last year. Output fell 0.2% month-to-month in December, but the year-over-year rose to 2.4%, from a revised 1.6% in November.

20 November 2018 The Eurozone Economy's Global Liquidity Pump is Sputtering (Publication Centre)

The EZ's current account surplus was stung at the end of Q3, falling to a three-year low of €16.9B in September, from a revised €23.9B in August.

20 February 2018 Everyone is Talking About Current Accounts Again (Publication Centre)

The euro area's current account surplus stumbled at the end of 2017, falling to €29.9B in December from an upwardly-revised €35.0B in November.

21 Dec. 2015 How Vulnerable is the U.K. to a Current Account Crisis? (Publication Centre)

The latest balance of payments figures, released Wednesday, look set to show that the current account deficit widened in Q3, underlying the U.K.'s vulnerability to a sudden change in overseas investor sentiment. The risk of a full-blown sterling crisis, however, is lower than the enormous current account deficit would appear to suggest.

21 January 2019 The EZ's Current Account Surplus is now Well Below 3% of GDP (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's current account surplus almost surely fell further in Q4.

21 Dec. 2015 Paris Attacks Unlikely to Dent Q4 French GDP Growth Severely (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing confidence in France remained resilient in the fourth quarter. The INSEE sentiment index rose to 103 in December from 102 in November, lifted by a jump in firms' own production expectations, and a small increase in the new orders-to-inventory ratio. We think production will increase in Q4, lifted by energy output, but the recent jump in the year-over-year rate is unlikely to be sustained, even if we factor in the marginal increase in new orders this month.

20 December 2016 Will Households Drain Housing Equity to Support Consumption? (Publication Centre)

One of the most surprising features of the economic recovery has been that households have not responded to the surge in house prices by releasing housing equity to fund consumption. Housing equity rose to 4.2 times annual disposable incomes in 2015, up from 3.7 in 2012. It has more than doubled over the last two decades.

20 Sept 2019 EZ Portfolio Outflows will get a New Lease of Life from the ECB (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded slightly at the start of Q3.

2 October 2018 Good News for Mexico's Prospects, the USMCA will Boost Sentiment (Publication Centre)

The U.S. reached a trade agreement with Canada on Sunday, adding its northern neighbour to the pact sealed a month ago with Mexico.

17 October 2018 Brazil's Presidential Second Round is Approaching is it a Done Deal (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian presidential election has remained in the spotlight in recent days and is the main driver of asset price volatility.

17 May 2019 The Hidden Boost to the Economy from Negative ECB Rates (Publication Centre)

Market-implied expectations of negative rates through 2021, and bund yields plunging below -0.1%, are an accident waiting to happen, but the main story is clear as rain.

17 July 2020 The ECB Takes Stock of a Strong and Sustained Stimulus Program (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting was a snoozer, just as we predicted.

18 Sept 2020 COPOM on Hold, the "Likely End of a Long" Monetary Easing Cycle (Publication Centre)

Recent economic activity, labour market and inflation data all have surprised Brazilian policymakers' expectations, to the upside.

19 December 2018 Another Strong Economic Activity Index in Brazil Outlook is Upbeat (Publication Centre)

Brazil is back on global investors' radar screens. Financial market metrics capture a relatively robust bullish tone, especially since the presidential election.

21 June 2017 German PPI Likely has Peaked in 2017, Will Equity Markets Care? (Publication Centre)

German producer price inflation fell last month, following uninterrupted gains since the beginning of this year. Headline PPI inflation fell to 2.8% year-over- year in May, from 3.4% in April, constrained by lower energy inflation, which slipped to 3.0%, from 4.6% in April. Meanwhile, non-energy inflation declined marginally to 2.7%, from 2.8%.

19 Feb. 2016 What Next for Mexico After the Surprise Rate Hike? (Publication Centre)

Mexico's central bank, Banxico, capitulated in the face of the rapidly depreciating MXN and unexpectedly increased interest rates by 50bp to 3.75% on Wednesday, following an unscheduled meeting the day before. The decision was a unanimous, brave step, showing that policymakers are extremely worried about the FX sell-off, despite growth still running below potential.

19 Feb. 2015 QE and the booming external surplus create conditions for EUR carry trades (Publication Centre)

Data later today will likely show that the Eurozone's external balance remained firm last quarter at a record 2.5% of GDP. We think the seasonally adjusted current account surplus rose to €20.0B in December from €18.1B in November, with positive momentum in the key components continuing.

20 April 2018 Why the BoJ Needs to Steepen the JGB Yield Curve (Publication Centre)

The BoJ yesterday published its semi-annual Financial System Report, which often gives insights into the longer-term thinking driving BoJ policy.

22 May 2017 Have Eurozone Investors Lost Their Appetite for Foreign Debt? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's current account surplus remained close to record highs at the end of Q1, despite dipping slightly to €34.1B in March, from a revised €37.8B in February. A further increase in the services surplus was the key story.

4 July 2018 Rising Household Saving Likely will Keep Spending Growth Subdued (Publication Centre)

The economy would have ground to a halt last year had households not reduced their saving rate sharply.

4 July 2018 Household Balance Sheets in the Eurozone are in Good Shape (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that Momentum in the EZ retail sector stumbled through middle of Q2.

31 March 2017 Q4 National Accounts will Show Stronger, but Fragile, Growth (Publication Centre)

The national accounts look set to show that GDP growth in the fourth quarter was even stronger than previously estimated. Earlier this month, quarter-on-quarter growth in construction output in Q4 was revised up to 1.2%, from 0.2%. As a result, construction's contribution to GDP growth will rise by 0.07 percentage points.

30 September 2016 Britain is Turning to Debt to Maintain an Illusion of Prosperity (Publication Centre)

Today's balance of payments figures for the second quarter likely will underline that the U.K. has financed strong growth in domestic consumption by amassing debts with the rest of the world at a breakneck pace.

4 October 2017 Can EZ Investors Still Exploit Monetary Policy Divergence? (Publication Centre)

Global monetary policy divergence has returned with a vengeance. In the U.S., despite recent soft CPI data, a resolute Fed has prompted markets to reprice rates across the curve.

7 August 2018 Is China Supporting the RMB by More than it is Willing to Admit (Publication Centre)

China's unadjusted current account was effectively in balance in Q2, after the deficit in Q1.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese production surprises in April, as catch-up growth and inventory build continue; Disappointing sales headline in China masks respectable short-term trends; Recovery in secondary investment in China still lagged behind tertiary capex; PPI deflation has largely bottomed out, but don't expect a quick exit

9 April 2019 PBoC Resists RMB Weakness, Despite Exports Threat (Publication Centre)

We aren't convinced that China's recovery is in train just yet.

8 Oct 2019 PBoC Gives State-Owned Banks a Break Ahead of the 70th Anniversary (Publication Centre)

China was in lockdown ahead of the 70th Anniversary last week, as is typical around important political events.

29 November 2017 Signs Mount that the BoJ is Concerned About the Curve (Publication Centre)

BoJ Governor Kuroda has piqued interest with his recent comments on the "reversal rate", the rate at which easy monetary policy becomes counterproductive, due to the negative impact on financial intermediation.

28 April 2017 Current Account in Brazil Still Improving, But not for Long (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery has been steady in recent months, and Q1 likely will mark the end of the recession. The gradual recovery of the industrial and agricultural sectors has been the highlight, thanks to improving external demand, the lagged effect of the more competitive BRL, and the more stable political situation, which has boosted sentiment.

22 November 2018 Will the EU Impose Sanctions on Italy over its Budget Deficit Plans (Publication Centre)

The EU Commission and Italy's government remain at loggerheads over the country's fiscal plans next year.

15 May 2018 Debunking Popular Theories on 2018 Yen Flows (Publication Centre)

At the end of last year, we highlighted a tail risk that strain in currency basis swaps markets signalled looming yen appreciation.

22 June 2018 Copom Likely will Keep Rates on Hold, if the BRL Permits (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank looked through the recent dip in the BRL and left interest rates at 6.50% at Wednesday's Copom meeting, in line with the consensus.

23 November 2017 Is EZ Consumption on Track for Grand Finish to 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance consumer sentiment index in the Eurozone confirmed the upside risks for consumers' spending in Q4. The headline index rose to a 17- year high of +0.1 in November, from -1.0 in October.

23 October 2017 The EZ's Current Account Surplus Rose in Q3, but the Trend is Falling (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded further over the summer.

28 Apr 2020 Brazil's BRL in the Eye of the Storm, Due to Rising Political Risk and Covid (Publication Centre)

After falling close to 5% last week, the Ibovespa rallied about 3.5% yesterday. Investors reacted positively to President Bolsonaro's expression of support for his Economy Minister, Paulo Guedes, after market concerns about tensions between them.

27 February 2019 Consumer Sentiment Signal better EZ Consumption Data in H1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer sentiment data in the two major euro area economies were mixed, but they still support our view that a rebound in EZ consumption growth is underway.

25 April 2019 Still Scope for Neutral Fiscal Policy in 2020, Despite March Hiccup (Publication Centre)

The run of better-than-expected public borrowing figures ended abruptly with the publication of March data yesterday.

21 May 2019 EZ Capital Outflows Should Pick Up in Q2, Mainly in Debt Markets (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus fell further at the end of Q1, and has now fully reversed the jump at the start of the year.

13 June 2018 Mexico's Manufacturing Activity in April was Weak, but it Will Improve (Publication Centre)

Mexico's industrial recovery, which began in late Q4, lost momentum at the start of the second quarter.

10 October 2018 Prospects Overstated for a Tidal Wave of Returning Japanese Funds (Publication Centre)

Japan's August balance of payments data, released yesterday, offer the first overview of financial flows since the BoJ "tweaks" at the end of July.

10 February 2017 Dip in German Exports Won't Ruin the Rebound in Q4 as a Whole (Publication Centre)

German exporters stumbled at the end of last year. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus in Germany dipped to €18.4B in December, from €21.8B in November, hit by a 3.3% month-to-month plunge in exports. Imports were flat on the month. The fall in exports looks dramatic, but it followed a 3.9% jump in the previous month, and nominal exports were up 2.5% over Q4 as a whole. Advance GDP data next week likely will show that net trade lifted quarter-on-quarter growth by 0.2 percentage points, partly reversing the 0.3pp drag in Q3. Real imports were held back by a jump in the import price deflator, due to rebounding oil prices.

1 December. 2016 Banks are in Better Health, But Debt Levels Still Pose Risks (Publication Centre)

The Bank of England's stress tests highlighted that banks have made further progress in strengthening their balance sheets over the last year. But while banks have retreated from taking risk onto their balance sheets, others have stepped in to fill the void.

14 August 2018 The Chaos in Turkey is Mainly a Political Risk for the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Investors in the euro area have mostly been focused on downside risks this year, and the spectre of Turkey spinning out of control has done little to change that.

11 April 2018 President Xi Jinping Says the Grand Bargain is There for the Taking (Publication Centre)

President Xi Jinping yesterday reiterated China's commitment to reform and the opening of its economy at a highly-anticipated speech at the Boao forum.

10 July 2018 China's FX Reserves Suggest the June RMB Slide was a Warning Shot (Publication Centre)

China's FX reserves were little changed in June, at $3,112B.

12 Sept 2019 Is China Making a Big Monetary Policy Blunder (Publication Centre)

China's money and credit numbers were once again unspectacular in August. M2 growth edged up to 8.2% year-over-year, from 8.1% in July.

11 August. 2015 Q2 Productivity Likely Constrained by a Surge in Self-Employment (Publication Centre)

The rebound in GDP growth in the second quarter seems not to have been enough to prevent year-over-year productivity growth slowing to about zero. The consensus forecast for the first estimate of Q2 productivity growth, due today, is a 1.6% annualized increase, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.3% from 0.6% in the first quarter, but we think this is too optimistic.

12 June 2017 China's Policy Choices are all Difficult, can Disaster be Averted? (Publication Centre)

China faces three possible macro outcomes over the next few years. First, the economy could pull off an active transition to consumer-led growth. Second, it could gradually slide into Japan-style growth and inflation, with government debt spiralling up. Third, it could face a full blown debt crisis, where the authorities lose control and China drags the global economy down too

13 Jan. 2016 Sterling Has Not Priced-in Brexit Risks Yet, Despite Recent Plunge (Publication Centre)

Claims abound that sterling's sharp depreciation since the start of the year--to its lowest level against the dollar since May 2010--partly reflects the growing risk that the U.K. will vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum. We see little evidence to support this assertion. Sterling's decline to date can be explained by the weakness of the economic data, meaning that scope remains for Brexit fears to push the currency even lower this year.

12 June 2020 What does the Fed's Hibernation Mean for EZ Policy and Assets (Publication Centre)

The U.S. Federal Reserve didn't quite deliver the shock-and-awe yield curve control this week which some observers had been expecting, but the message was clear enough.

25 August. 2015 Market Panic Puts Pressure on ECB, but Fed's Response is Key (Publication Centre)

Weakness in risk assets turned into panic yesterday with the Eurostoxx falling over 6%, taking the accumulated decline to 19% since the beginning of August, and volatility hitting a three-year high. Market crashes of this kind are usually followed by a period of violent ups and downs, and we expect volatile trading in coming weeks. Following an extended bull market in risk assets, the key question investors will be asking is whether the economic cycle is turning.

20 Mar 2020 Unprecedented QE Should Arrest the Surge in Gilt Yields (Publication Centre)

The MPC has wasted no time in seeking to counter this week's undesirable pick-up in gilt yields, which reflects investors dumping assets for cash.

21 September. 2016 No Hike Today, but the Door Will be Left Wide Open (Publication Centre)

We would be very surprised if the Fed were to raise rates today. The Yellen Fed is not in the business of shocking markets, and with the fed funds future putting the odds of a hike at just 22%, action today would assuredly come as a shock, with adverse consequences for all dollar assets.

23 November. 2016 Three Very Different Scenarios for the Eurozone Economy in 2017 (Publication Centre)

Political uncertainty has been a key theme in our recent conversations with clients, with many readers asking if it is time to step away, temporarily, from Eurozone assets. Valuations provide some support for that position.

24 August. 2015 U.S and U.K. Demand, Not China, Drives the Eurozone Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

The sell-off in risky assets intensified while we were away, driven by China's decision to loosen its grip on the currency, and looming rate hikes in the U.S. The Chinese move partly shows, we think, the PBoC is uncomfortable pegging to a strengthening dollar amid the unwinding investment boom and weakness in manufacturing.

2 Dec 2019 The Effects of the Protests are Starting to Show up in Chile's Data (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets and currencies had a bad November, due to global trade war concerns, the USD rebound and domestic factors.

12 Nov 2019 How About an EZ Asset that's Impervious to Overvaluation? (Publication Centre)

Financial assets of all stripes are, by most metrics, expensive as we head into year-end, but for some markets, valuations matter less than in others. The market for non-financial corporate bonds in the euro area is a case in point.

25 Nov. 2015 Privatisations Conceal Underlying Health of Public Finances (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor is likely to announce plans for additional public sector asset sales in today's Autumn Statement, to help arrest the unanticipated rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio this year. But privatisations rarely improve the underlying health of the public finances, partly because assets seldom are sold for their full value. And the Chancellor is running out of viable assets to privatise; the low-hanging, juiciest fruits have already been plucked.

11 Apr. 2016 Stronger Growth and Accelerating Wages Will Shift Rate Sentiment (Publication Centre)

A reader sent us last week a series of five simple feedback loops, all of which ended with the Fed remaining "cautious". For example, in a scenario in which the dollar strengthens--perhaps because of stronger U.S. economic data--markets see an increased risk of a Chinese devaluation, which then pummels EM assets, making the Fed nervous about global growth risks to the domestic economy.

12 October. 2016 After High Volatility in Q4, LatAm Currencies Will Strengthen in 2017 (Publication Centre)

Investors will increase their focus on exchange rates as the US presidential election and the Fed's next rate hike approach. Markets are becoming concerned that a surge in the USD could trigger another spike in LatAm currency volatility, depressing the good year- to-date performance of most local market assets.

14 Mar. 2016 Don't Abandon All Hope in EZ Equities - Better Times are Ahead (Publication Centre)

The benchmark MSCI EU ex-UK equity index was down a startling 17% year-over-year at the end of February. A disappointing policy package from the ECB in December initially put Eurozone equities on the back foot, and the awful start to the year for global risk assets has since piled on the misery.

17 Dec. 2014 Sentiment Surges, but Russian Rout Forces a Reminder of 1998 (Publication Centre)

With Russia and some other emerging economies now in full panic mode, the financial market story is sharply divided between two narratives. Either the plunge in global energy prices acts as positive catalyst by boosting real incomes and allowing most central banks to run easier monetary policy or it is a sign that risk assets are about to hit a deflationary wall.

15 May 2019 The Escalation of Trade Tensions Fans Concerns for LatAm's Upturn (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets did well in Q1, on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD.

17th June 2020 Global Monitor Chinese money supply data are picking up (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The FOMC puts the Fed funds rate on ice • EUROZONE - What does the Fed's new rate policy mean for the ECB and EZ assets? • U.K. - More QE, but no negative rates, this week • ASIA - Solid Chinese M1 data suggest the PBoC will hold back on rate cuts • LATAM - Banxico to cut rates further, despite higher inflation

4 Dec. 2015 A Bad Day for ECB Doves - New Policies Fall Short of Expectations (Publication Centre)

On all accounts, the ECB announced a significant addition to its stimulus program yesterday. The central bank cut the deposit rate by 0.1%, to -0.3%, and extended the duration of QE until March 2017. The ECB also increased the scope of eligible assets to include regional and local government debt; decided to re-invest principal bond payments; and affirmed its commitment to long-term refinancing operations in the financial sector for as long as necessary. The measures were not agreed upon unanimously, but the majority was, according to Mr. Draghi, "very large".

8 December 2017 Chinese Outflows Picking up? FX Reserves to Fall Again in 2018 (Publication Centre)

China's FX reserves rose to $3119B in November from $3109B in October. But the increase is explained by simultaneous yen, euro and sterling strength, which raises the dollar value of assets denominated in these currencies.

7 February 2018 Risk Asset Sell-off Likely Won't Derail LatAm's Benign Outlook (Publication Centre)

The sell-off in equity markets and increases in volatility have put EM assets under pressure. EM equities and bonds, however, have been outperforming their U.S. and global market counterparts.

8 May 2017 Rocky Commodity Markets Put LatAm FX under Temporary Stress (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have done well in recent weeks on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD. A less confrontational approach from the U.S. administration to trade policy has helped too.

9 November. 2016 A Trump Victory Would Upset EZ Equities and Depress Yields (Publication Centre)

Eurozone investors will be looking anxiously across the pond overnight as the results of U.S. elections come in. Our assumption is that Hillary Clinton will be elected president and that risk assets will celebrate accordingly today.

9 November. 2016 Trump Stuns LatAm... Banxico Likely Will Have to Act (Publication Centre)

As it became clear that Donald Trump would beat Hillary Clinton to win the U.S. presidency, EM currencies came under severe pressure, fearing his economic and immigration policies. Some of the initial pressure is easing as markets digest the news and following Mr. Trump's conciliatory tone in his victory speech. But the proposals have been made and the MXN and other key LatAm assets likely will remain very stressed in the near term.

26 September 2018 Brazil's External Accounts Will Remain Resilient the BRL Will Help (Publication Centre)

Brazilian financial assets lately appear to be responding only to developments in the presidential election race and external jitters.

6 March 2017 Fed Fears Hit LatAm FX Last Week - is a Renewed Sell-off Coming? (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have struggled in recent days as it has become clear that the Fed will hike next week. But we don't expect currencies to collapse, as domestic fundamentals are improving and the broader external outlook is relatively benign.

5 Jan. 2015 Political Risks Return, but M1 Signals Faster Growth Ahead (Publication Centre)

The prospect of a Greek parliamentary election on January 25th, following Prime Minister Samaras' failure to secure support for his presidential candidate, weighed on Eurozone assets over the holidays. The looming political chaos in Greece will increase market volatility in the first quarter, but it is too early to panic.

27 April 2017 Today's ECB Meeting Will be a Snoozer for Markets (Publication Centre)

It's always dangerous when risk assets rally strongly into an ECB meeting, but we doubt that investors have much to fear from today's session in Frankfurt. We think the central bank will leave its main refinancing and deposit rates at 0.00% and -0.4% respectively.

3 August 2017 China's Reform Scorecard Part 3: Building Government Debt Markets (Publication Centre)

China will have to issue a lot of government debt in the next few years. The government will need to continue migrating to its balance sheet, all the debt that should have been registered there in the first place. This will mean a rapid expansion of liabilities, but if handled correctly, the government will also gain valuable assets in the process.

27 Sept 2019 Is the "Repo Crisis" a Sign to Batten Down the Hatches for GFC 2.0 (Publication Centre)

In the financial crisis, a squeeze in short-term dollar markets forced banks to sell assets, which were then exposed as soured.

3 June. Brexit Would Hit All Sterling Asset Values, Gilts Included (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the outperformance of gilts compared to government bonds in other developed countries this year suggests that Brexit would be a boon for the gilt market. In the event of an exit, however, we think that the detrimental impact of higher gilt issuance, rising risk premia and weaker overseas demand would overwhelm the beneficial influence of stronger domestic demand for safe-haven assets, pushing gilt yields higher.

4 December 2018 The China-U.S Trade Truce Eases Downside Risks for Chile and Peru (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets and currencies enjoyed a good start to the week, following the agreement between the U.S. and China to pause the trade war.

FINANCIAL TIMES - Eastern Europe vulnerable to Brexit fallout (Media Centre)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia on Latam currency risks.

Question of the Week, WC 9th July (Media Centre)

Why is the EZ current account surplus rising and net exports falling at the same time? 

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