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19 February 2019 Expect to See a Further Softening in Asian Price Data this Friday (Publication Centre)

A slew of Asian price numbers are due this Friday, and they will all likely show that price gains softened further in January.

22 June 2018 Asian Data Point to Slowing World Trade Growth this Year (Publication Centre)

Korean trade activity is slowing.

3 October 2017 Manufacturing Powers Ahead, Supported by External Demand (Publication Centre)

The Asian PMIs point to a strengthening manufacturing sector in September but external demand is the driver.

7 February 2018 Global Liquidity has been Damaged Recently, but 2008 this is not (Publication Centre)

In terms of one-day moves, the drop in U.S. equities yesterday and Asian equities in the past two days has been pretty bad.

24 July 2017 Asian Trade Dragged Down by Chinese Slump (Publication Centre)

Korean exports are often a useful gauge of Asian and global trade; the country sits near the beginning of the global supply chain. It also happens to publish early in the data cycle and provides a measure of exports in the first 20 days of the month.

26 November 2018 The Coming Year won't Provide Much Respite for Asian Economies (Publication Centre)

The past year has been difficult for Asian economies, with trade wars, natural disasters, and misguided policies, to name a few, putting a dampener on growth.

5 Mar 2020 Does the Fed's Cut Open the Asian Floodgates for Rate Reductions (Publication Centre)

The Fed's unscheduled 50bp cut on Tuesday opens up some space for Asian central banks to follow suit.

*March 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Delivers Stimulus; No Trough Yet...Korea and Japan Pummelled by China's Slowdown...Time for a Boj Inflation Target Rethink?

*October 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Dire Q3 GDP points to Further Easing

*March 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Activity Data Confirm China's Nightmare Q1...Japan In For A Full-Year Contraction...Korea Should Be Able To Avoid A Technical Recession....India's Policymakers Are Reasonably Quiet, For Now

*March 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

U.S. profligacy will extend Asia's cycle...but domestic demand to struggle this year and next

*June 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Punchy Q2 Implies A Quieter Q3 In China...Expect A Quieter Secord Half For The BOJ...Korean Exports Look Poised To Turn The Corner..No Bullet Was Dodged In India; Unlock 1.0 Is Risky

*June 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Tariffs are unlikely to damage GDP this year...But the tension is unveiling financial fragilities

*June 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's first recourse: Secure a trade deal...The boj is reticent to join the chorus of doves...The bok won't blink, green shoots are evident...India's Q1 was poor, but rbi cuts are overkill

*May 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Early signs of financial fragilities emerge...with policymakers fretting, after the fact

*May 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China recovery falters...and now tariffs...Japan's Q1 gdp growth was a mirage; Korean exports are turning the corner, just...India's status quo vote won't turn growth around

*October 2017 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Asia supported by U.S. demand in Q3...while domestic demand weakens in China and Japan

*November 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Gets A 2020 GDP Growth Downgrade...Back To The Bad Old Days For Japan...Korea Points To Stabilisation In Global Trade...Plus -4% Inflation Sets Up An RBI Pause

*November 2017 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's social contract has changed...Fed normalisation to test the new paradism

*July 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Recovery Will Lose Steam In H2...Tokyo's Second Wave Is Unlike The First, Good...A Capex Correction In Korea Is Imminent...India Is Making Life Harder For Itself

*May 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Unsustainable V-Shaped Recovery...Japan's Q1 GDP Contraction Is Just A Taster...Korea's Grim April Exports Is A Warning Shot...India's Lockdown Will Kill Q2, Despite Relaxation

*October 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Back to 2014/2015 for China? A Weak Q3 for Japan, After Rocket-Charged Q2...The BOK Will Kick Its Rate Hike Into the Long Grass

*November 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Stimulus Faces Q4 Hurdles...Japan Bounced Back in October but will it last?...Misplaced BoK Hopes for Stable Growth

*February 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Expect a Rare Q/Q Fall in Chinese GDP In Q1...A Technical Recession In Japan is on the Cards...The Real Hit to Korean Trade will Start This Month...Post-Virus in Oil Will Help India's Recovery

*August 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Chia faces a u-shaped recovery..Japan's domestic demand strentgh is fragile...The bank of Korea is likely to pause, for now...Expect a respectable Q2 GDP rebound in India

*August 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Narrow Q3 Bounce Is Warning...Abe's Second Wave Gamble Has Paid Off...But Korea Is Now In The Thick Of It...The RBI Will Resume Easing In October

*December 2017 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Winter has come as China curbs pollution...Asia will use fed hikes to tackle financial risks

*August 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's switch to easing shows up in the data...The BOJ takes a baby step away from uber-easing

*April 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Growing Demand-Supply Mismatch...Three Straight Quarters Of Contraction In Japan...Covid Defeated, But Korea's Economic Hit Isn't Over...An H1 Recession In India Is All But Guarenteed

*April 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's 2018 growth forecast revised up...but activity in Japan took a breather in Q1

*April 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Is This Really The Recovery For China?...Japan Catches A Cold;...Q1 Will Be Poor, But The BOK Is Set For A Long Pause

*December 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Stimulus Faces Q4 Hurdles....Japan Bouced Back in October, But Will it Last? Growth in Korea is Set to Become Much Weaker

*December 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Is Stabilising, But Not Yet Recovering...Japan's Fiscal Stimulus Faces Capacity Constraints...No New Year Shock This Time For Korean Workers..India's Q3 Wasn;t A Disaster; The RBI Is Done Easing

*January 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Chinese GDP Growth Won't Trough Until Q3...The Window For BOJ Adjustments Is Narrowing...Not Buying Into Korea's Consensus-Beating Q4 GDP

*July 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China shifts to easing but scope is limited...While the Boj is set to tweak its yield curve targets

*January 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

BOJ is out of ammo; PBOC still has options...and is likely to fight back against RMB strength

*September 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Takes the Trade High Road..The BOJ will Act Before Markets Expect Unemployment Upshift Rules out 2018 BOK Hike

*February 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Major Turning Point For China? Financial Fragilities; Political Regime Change

*February 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Downtrend Worse; Outlook Better..Japan's Bouncy Q4 Won't Be Repeated In Q1...Korea's Job Market Pummelled By Minimum Wage Hike

*July 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

After June respite, China will hit Q3 headwinds...Japan probably dodged a Q2 GDP contraction...The BOK's surprise cut in July is a one-and-done...The case for additional RBI cuts narrows further

*January 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China: Manuf. Green Shoots; Household Pain...Japan's Fiscal Package Faces Capacity Constraints...Korea's Q4 GDP Bump Is Iffy, But The Recovery Is On...Food Inflation In India Isn't Just About Onions

4 June 2018 Chinese PPI Inflation is Set to Head Higher, it will be Short-lived (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing headline was unremarkable, but the input price index signals that PPI inflation is set to rise again in May, to 4.0%-plus, from 3.4% in April.

4 September 2017 China's PMIs Imply Producer Prices are Still Rising Rapidly (Publication Centre)

This Monitor provides a summary of the main points of interest over the two weeks we were out. The Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI, published last Friday, confounded expectations for a modest fall, rising to 51.6 in August from 51.1 in July.

4 September 2018 Is Fear of Further Tariffs Boosting Capex and Inventory-Building? (Publication Centre)

While we were out, most of the core domestic economic data were quite strong, with the exception of the soft July home sales numbers and the Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

30 November 2018 Japan's Retail Sales Deliver a Rosy October Jump - Blip or Trend? (Publication Centre)

Japan's retail sales values jumped 1.2% month-on-month in October, after the upwardly-revised 0.1% increase in September.

3 January 2019 China's PMIs Deteriorate What are the Positives Amid the Gloom (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI doused hopes of turning over a January new leaf; it dropped to 49.7 in November, from 50.2 in December.

25 July 2017 Korean Q2 GDP Growth to Provide Evidence of Chinese Slowdown (Publication Centre)

After strong real GDP growth in Q1, China commentators called the peak, claiming that growth would slow for the rest of 2017.

29 November 2018 We're Holding our Non-Consensus View for no Bank of Korea Hike (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea will tomorrow hold its final meeting for the year.

5 November 2018 China's Role in Global Rates over the Next 10 Years (Publication Centre)

In recent months we've been thinking more deeply about the themes for the next economic cycle for China, and its impact on the world.

6 Sept 2019 Ugly Factory Orders Data to Kick off Q3 for German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand in German manufacturing slid at the start of Q3.

9 Sept 2019 China's RRR cut Helps Credit Supply but Demand Still Wanting (Publication Centre)

The PBoC cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio late on Friday--as signalled at last Wednesday's State Council meeting--by 0.5 percentage points, to be implemented from September 16.

*September 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The PBOC is hesitant, but the case for an outright rate cut continues to build..

7 September 2018 Are Chinese Efforts to Stabilise Growth Starving Private Firms (Publication Centre)

China's authorities recognised, around the middle of this year, that activity was slowing and that monetary conditions had become overly tight.

7 Sept 2020 Korean Exports are Still on the Road to Recovery, Backing the Won's Run (Publication Centre)

The recovery in Korean exports--a key leading indicator for global trade--appears to have stalled in August.

7 June 2019 The RBI's Third Rate Cut is Overkill a U-Turn is Likely, Soon (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted yesterday to cut the benchmark repo rate by a further 25 basis points, to 5.75%, a nine-year low.

7 November 2018 China's Q3 BoP Data Confirm Trade War-Related Capital Flight (Publication Centre)

China's unadjusted current account surplus widened to $16.0B in the preliminary report for Q3, from $5.3B in Q2.

24 June 2019 Japan's CPI Inflation has Peaked but the BoJ isn't Bothered (Publication Centre)

Japan's national CPI inflation has peaked, falling to 0.7% in May from 0.9% in April.

7 December 2018 Will the BoJ be Put Off Policy Adjustments by Market Turmoil? (Publication Centre)

Recent market turmoil and concerns on the outlook for global growth have re-awakened talk of stimulus. For the BoJ, this inevitably raises the question of what could possibly be done, given that policy already appears to be on the excessively loose side of loose.

1 May 2019 No Reason to Panic a Correction in China's PMIs was Coming (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Chinese PMI numbers disappointed forecasts across the board, failing to meet widespread expectations for either stability or a continued, albeit marginal, improvement in April.

11 September 2018 The Trade Wars are Neutral in China's Trade Surplus, so far (Publication Centre)

At the time of writing, Mr. Trump reportedly is finalising plans to impose tariffs of up to 25% on a further $200B of imports from China.

12 October 2018 Sticking to our Call for the Bank of Korea to Remain on Hold (Publication Centre)

The Board of the Bank of Korea will meet again in less than a week's time for this year's penultimate meeting.

04 Feb. 2016 Are Jobless Claims Starting to Rise? If so, Where Will They Stop? (Publication Centre)

The pace of layoffs might be picking up. Our first chart looks pretty convincing, but it's much too soon to know for sure. The claims data from mid-December through late January are subject to serious seasonal adjustment problems, partly because Christmas falls on a different day of the week each year and partly because the exact timing of post-holiday layoffs varies from year-to-year.

03 Feb. 2016 Would a Renminbi Depreciation Derail the Pick-up in U.K. Inflation? (Publication Centre)

Investors are increasingly anxious that an intentional sharp devaluation of the renminbi, aiming to combat China's slowdown, might lead to prolonged deflation in the West, particularly in an economy as open as the U.K.

*September 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Too Soon For China To Claim A Full Recovery...A Tough Start For Japan's New Prime Minister...The Recovery In Korean Exports Is Holding Up, Just...Still No Let-Up In India's Covid-19 Outbreak

22 May 2019 Not Out of the Woods, but Korea is Signalling a U-Turn in World Trade (Publication Centre)

The latest trade data from Korea underscore the unfortunate timing of the resumption of the U.S.-China tit-for-tat tariff war.

13 June 2017 Debt-Fuelled Korean Consumption is at Risk as Rates Rise (Publication Centre)

When Park Geun-hye came to power in Korea 2013, it was to cheers of "economic democratisation". At the time, I wrote a report with a list of reforms that would be needed for Korea to "economically democratise".

10 September 2018 Japan's Big Wage Increases Point to Robust Q3 Private Consumption (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour cash earnings rose by 1.5% year-over- year in July, a strong result in the Japanese context, if it hadn't been preceded by the 3.6% leap in June.

20 December 2016 Fiscal Easing Likely Would Boost Productivity, but not by Enough (Publication Centre)

The two key planks of the argument that a substantial easing of fiscal policy won't be inflationary are that labor participation will be dragged higher, limiting the decline in the unemployment rate, while productivity growth will rebound, so unit labor costs will remain under control.

14 August 2017 China's Slowdown Surprised Japan, Inventories to Boost Q2 GDP (Publication Centre)

Japanese domestic demand probably strengthened in Q2, with both private consumption and fixed investment accelerating. Trade and inventories are the key swing components for GDP growth.

22 February 2019 This Month's PMI Headline: Weak Manufacturing, Strong Services (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's February PMI data sent a clear message to markets.

15 May 2017 Mexican Manufacturing set to Remain Resilient in Q2 and Q3 (Publication Centre)

Recent industrial data for Mexico point to renewed upside risks for GDP growth, despite the likely headwind to consumption from high inflation and depressed confidence.

20 April 2018 Why the BoJ Needs to Steepen the JGB Yield Curve (Publication Centre)

The BoJ yesterday published its semi-annual Financial System Report, which often gives insights into the longer-term thinking driving BoJ policy.

15 August 2017 China's Boomlet Causes Volatility for Japan, Second Half to Weaken (Publication Centre)

Japanese real Q2 GDP growth surprised analysts, increasing sharply to a quarterly annualised rate of 4.0%, up from 1.0% in Q1 and much higher than the consensus, 2.5%. But its no coincidence that the jump in Japanese growth follows strong growth in China in Q1.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Focus on Japan's job-to-applicant ratio, not the unemployment rate

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

PBoC rate cut still on the tame side but more is coming, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI yet to see virus damage, China's profits better than the headline suggests going into the coronavirus hit, Early signs of coronavirus damage in Korea's trade data, Surge in Korea's manufacturing PMI comes to a stop in January

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese services are doing the heavy lifting in Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI highlights supply-demand mismatch. China's non-manufacturing PMI reveals struggling services and rebounding construction. Retail sales in Japan started to turn sour before the state of emergency, but the overall picture for Q1 isn't bad. The worst is yet to come for Japanese industrial production.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan: Monetary base growth slowed to 2.8% y/y in August, from 3.7% in July. Bloomberg reports no consensus, Korea: Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 1.0% q/q, from 1.1% in the preliminary report, below the no-change consensus. • Korea: CPI inflation fell to 0.0% in August, from 0.6% in July, below the consensus, 0.2%.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin gauge still to register renewed tariff threat. Japan's Capex growth on borrowed time. Korean exports stumble in May, but Q2 is shaping up to be better than Q1. Korea's PMI for May highlights the still-huge downside risks facing exporters.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was due a correction. Korea's PMI closes out the year strong, chiming with December's punchy trade data.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ snubs the doves. Japan's unemployment rate downtick was minimal. The weak external backdrop dominates Japan's pre-tax front-loading industrial activity.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Encouraging momentum from China's private sector in the lead-up to Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

A jump in Chinese services was due, but activity remains well below pre-Covid levels

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Marginally stronger Q4 GDP growth in Korea implies a more painful Q1 virus hit, CPI inflation in Korea should continue to slide, as the slump in oil prices starts to feed through, Remember the BoJ never officially abandoned it's ¥80T JGB purchase target

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Punchy output gains from China's manufacturers will soon give way. A mixed bag for China's non-manufacturing sectors at the start of Q3. Don't be fooled by the June slip in Japan's unemployment rate. Expect only a mild recovery in Japanese industrial production, for now. Korean production ended Q2 on a strong note.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Consensus-beating March PMI merely underscores how bad February was... the economy isn't out of the woods. The non-manufacturing bounce was broad-based, but construction led the way. Japan's job openings plunge shows the direction of travel for unemployment. Japan's retail sales suggest Q1 pain to be concentrated in March. Japan inc granted a last month of reprieve before the Covid-19 storm hits. Korean carmakers' sourcing woes largely to blame for February hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI was poised for major disappointment... the trade war impact is clear. Don't be fooled by the relative stability of China's non-manufacturing PMI. Japan's March unemployment uptick was early; April was payback. Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's industrial production ticks up after extreme weakness; don't hold your breath for the recovery. Japan's consumers in poor shape, but maybe it's not that bad. The upswing in Korean industrial production likely to take a breather this month. The BoK holds firm, despite rising calls for a rate cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Headline GDP growth in Q3 was unchanged, but the revised details mostly were positive. BoJ in a holding pattern on aggregate JGB purchases; focus on curve steepening

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ remains in an alternate reality in order to avoid a rate cut, underlining its concerns over damage to the financial sector. Chances of a serious PBoC blunder are rising. No "Phase 1" sentiment lift for Chinese manufacturers. A sharp fall in China's official services gauge was due. This probably is as good as it'll get for Japanese industrial production. Korean industrial production remains volatile, but the trend is decisively up.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI edged up in July. Services in China are finally starting to feel the pinch. Korean IP looks poised for a stronger increase in July, notwithstanding Japan's export curbs.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs are not yet fully picking up the coronavirus; China's non-manufacturing PMI lifted by local government spending; not yet hit by the virus; Japan's job postings still suggest the unemployment rate is unsustainably low; Japan's national inflation has less far to fall than Tokyo's; The coronavirus will delay the return of Japanese retail sales to pre-tax hike levels; Investment goods drive Japan's IP rebound in December; no real support now for consumer goods production; December probably is as good as it will get for Korean industrial production, for now

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese manufacturing powers through Beijing's partial lockdown. The hot construction sector in China took a small breather in June. Unemployment in Japan is on track to breach the 3% mark for the first time since 2017. No immediate relief for Japanese industry from the withdrawal of the state of emergency. There is light at the end of the tunnel for the downturn in Korean industry.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

PBoC lowers rates, and signals more to come.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Tax front-loading in full swing

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs suggest the private sector is recovering ahead of SoEs. China's non-manufacturing PMI again masks construction/services cross currents. Japan's industrial production continues to languish. OK so now Japanese households are front-loading spending. Korean IP corrects from the bumper July; the momentum from the Q2 recovery is waning.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

An impressive release of pent-up demand in June... but now comes the hard part.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Surge in Chinese profits suggests industry no longer needs additional life support, Japan's all-industry gauge likely returned to the black in June

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Household debt forced the BoK toward targeted measures and away from a system-wide cut

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Horrendous Chinese profits plummet should spur the authorities into further stimulus. No signs yet of persistent discounting in Tokyo, but a lockdown would change things overnight.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Fresh deterioration in Chinese profits.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Tokyo inflation had further to fall in September than the national gauge. Some positive stories in Chinese industrial profits despite the gloomy headline.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 August 2020 (Publication Centre)

Second wave opens the door for another BoK rate cut; All is not well under the hood of Chinese profits; Japan's full all-industry data point to a downgrade to Q2 GDP

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Chinese profits show signs of stabilisation, but headwinds will continue

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin gauges are picking up but both are volatile

ASIAN DATA WRAP 26 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Energy prices in Tokyo generally lag... deflation probably took hold nationwide this month

ASIAN DATA WRAP 26 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

March was painful, but Japan's all-industry index likely was hit much harder in April.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: BoJ makes a gesture on bond buying

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan most exposed workers felt the early Covid-19 hit in March.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 August 2020 (Publication Centre)

Tokyo firms try to keep up with Go To Travel discounts nationwide

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Minimal front-loading ahead of Japan's October tax hike so far.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Commodity-price pressures dampen Chinese profits' return to growth, Retail sales in Japan recover only modestly in May

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's firms are done hiring. Tokyo inflation points to uptick in national gauge, driven by non-core effects. Japan's start to Q4 goes from bad to worse, as industrial production tanks in October. Still far too soon to call time on Korea's IP recovery, despite the October setback. Governor Lee attempts to manage 2020 expectations, as the BoK stands pat after the October cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

National CPI probably will rise in October, despite Tokyo stability

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 August 2020 (Publication Centre)

The delayed recovery of private manufacturers suggests upside risks to China's Q3 GDP. Extension of Japan's furlough scheme will only delay--not reverse--the virus hit to jobs. Japan's already-grim Q2 GDP report looks set for a downgrade next week. Korea's Q2 GDP receives a modest upgrade, but all eyes are on the second-wave threat to Q3. Ignore the headline, Korea's export recovery remained on track in August. Korean manufacturers are shrugging off the second wave, for now.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

Korean IP was due a bounce after February's sourcing woes... that will pale in comparison to the April hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japanese labour data show early signs of virus hit. Japan's industrial production in a slow recovery... pre-virus. Japan's retail sales still trying to make up lost ground after the tax hike. Tokyo prices already showing signs of virus hit? Korean industrial production wobbles before virus hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's stable unemployment rate belies underlying weakness. Tokyo energy inflation turns the corner. Sales tax preparations breathe life into Japanese production in May... if only temporarily. Korea's IP plunge in May shows why Japan can't rest on its laurels.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Expecting one more cut from the BoK, as it mulls implicit forms QE and YCC

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Larger-than-expected collapse in Japanese retail sales highlight inefficacy of tax-smoothing efforts

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

No post-lockdown bounce for private services in China

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's money growth reverts back after a brief uptick. Japan's wage headline improves, details deteriorate. Japan's machine tool orders should turn stomachs.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's real imports showing signs of stabilisation? Japan's regular wages staging a comeback?

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage growth rebounded because August is not a bonus month. Japan's current account maintains stability as trade balance cross currents persist. China's services PMI report contains some positive details but we aren't convinced. The rebuilding of Korea's current account surplus will soon lose momentum.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

Inventories save Japan's final Q2 GDP from a sharp downgrade. No real second wave hit--just yet--to Japanese wages. Dark clouds continue to hover over Japan's current account surplus, despite the July bounce.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q2 GDP growth was not all it's cracked up to be. M2 growth in Japan inched up in July, but trends at the margin have rolled over. China's July inflation uptick shows that the swine flu outbreak is nowhere near under control. China officially enters PPI deflation... but it shouldn't last beyond Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus probably has peaked. Chinese FX reserves jump in May, thanks primarily to valuation effects. Chinese FX reserves jump in May, thanks primarily to valuation effects. April should be the low of Japan's current account surplus.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

The rebound of Japan's current account surplus has further to run

ASIAN DATA WRAP 7 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese services are doing the heavy lifting in Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's see-sawing trade surplus is likely to continue in the short run, but it mostly has peaked. Japan's unadjusted current account surplus slipped to ¥1,211B in June, from ¥1,595B in May, marginally surpassing the consensus, ¥1,149B.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage growth is not strong enough to support households through the tax hike

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Valuation effects boost China's June FX reserves. Japan's currency account surplus unlikely to fall further. Japan's core machine orders should shake policymakers' conviction in Capex resilience.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan GDP now shows more of the tax distortions. Japan's current account surplus is likely to see another downshift. Chinese imports boosted soybeans and circuits. China's FX reserves slide in November, as Phase One talks enter crunch time.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's PPI turning the corner. China's CPI inflation should peak this month ber's punchy trade data.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's capex on a much weaker footing than original data showed. Japan's current account surplus will continue to face cross-currents. China's export weakness is not over yet. China FX reserves spared as intervention goes on behind the scenes.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

The RMB's run is slowing China's exit from PPI deflation. Pork prices are starting to cool, again, pulling down Chinese CPI inflation. M2 growth in Japan remains punchy, setting the stage for a Q3 bounce. Machine tool orders in Japan are finally turning the corner after a long-running slump. Like last year, don't read too much into the August surprise in Korea's jobs data.

ASIAN Datanote FX Reserves, China, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lift from currency valuation effects moderates sharply from strong July boost.

ASIAN DATAWRAP 8 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus falls unexpectedly in April, thanks partly to a bump in imports. Japan's services PMI falls despite holiday boost. The BoJ remains in a holding pattern. Korea's current account surplus rose in March, but its overall downtrend remains intact.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Machine tool orders in Japan are still in the doldrums.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Not giving up on China's stimulus yet. China's PPI inflation will head higher this month. China's CPI inflation will peak soon.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 25 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

April should be as bad as it'll get for Japan's all-industry index.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

June moderation confirms May nadir in Chinese PPI deflation. Food price disinflation in China stalls in June. No signs of Japan's M2 growth spike tapering anytime soon. The surprise bounce in Japanese core machine orders was fairly narrow. Machine tool orders in Japan end Q2 on an encouraging note.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

State of emergency destroyed Japanese overtime pay in April. M2 growth in Japan hasn't been this strong since the early 90s. No relief for Japanese tool orders in May, despite the phased withdrawal of the emergency declaration.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Rebound in Chinese trade will be hampered in the short run by virus disruptions around the world. PBoC leant against Covid-19 pressures on the RMB... a far cry from January's Phase One rally. Japan's Q4 GDP nose-dive downgraded on weaker private and public investment. Japan's current account surplus is facing strong crosscurrents.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 7 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

China is not taking any chances with the RMB ahead of its 70th anniversary

ASIAN DATA WRAP 7 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's exporters fulfil old orders; new orders have plunged; Caixin survey underlines that smaller firms are still sputtering; An unsurprisingly modest start for "unlimited QE" in Japan; Expect much more trade damage to Korea's current account surplus in April

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

Trade drives Korea's current account surplus to a nine-month high.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Let's not get carried away with the Japanese fiscal stimulus. Korea's current account surplus rebounded in October, as the services gap returned to its narrowing trend.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Caixin services PMI shows labour market worries before the virus hit

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's services PMI points to Q2 GDP contraction. China's Caixin services PMI highlights the reasons for official concern over employment. Korea's current account slips into deficit for the first time since 2012.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI was due a bounce

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

The hit from oil prices has just started; CPI deflation is imminent in Korea. Korea's PMI descends further, but April could mark the low

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's current account balance returns to the black in May

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's Q1 GDP downgrade will fuel calls for a rate cut. CPI inflation in Korea should soon peak out. Ignore the uptick in Japanese monetary base; it's a one off.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Korea's current account deficit in April probably was the low.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Smaller services sector firms worse hit by virus containment. Korean virus response notches up in the wake of the Fed move.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Covid-19 could soon push Korea's current account surplus into the red.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's meagre cut is not enough. Broad slowdown in Chinese services activity continues. Japan's rate of QE is low but roughly stable.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's bonus drop is dictating spending in Q3

ASIAN DATA WRAP 7 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's December wage data suggest household in no mood to weather tax hike

ASIAN DATA WRAP 7 Jan 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's current account surplus should rebound sharply in December. The rate of QE in Japan slipped in December.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 7 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Rapidly falling wages in Japan rule out a V-shaped spending bounce. May confirms that Korea's current account deficit in April was just a one-off.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Overdue correction in the primary income surplus brings Korea's current account back down to earth.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Cash earnings in Japan surprise to the upside thanks to base effects... January will be as good as it gets.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's current account surplus rebounded on a smaller services deficit in July

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage growth bounces back on volatile bonuses; distortions still at play? Korea's current account surplus has bottomed out, but pressure on the won will continue to rise in the S/T.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus will put renewed pressure on Korea's current account surplus.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 Jan 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin services PMI corrects from November's Singles' Day bump

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Non-core base effects push Korean CPI inflation to a 14-month high in January. Monetary base data show BoJ back-peddling against virus.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Non-core items drive Japan's CPI inflation higher, with energy also indirectly pushing up core inflation. Sino-U.S. Phase One trade deal gives Japan's manufacturing PMI a boost. Japan's services PMI levels look unsustainable.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

The moderation of China's trade surplus has only just begun.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese imports ride high on tech and Phase One trade deal. Risks continue to build in Japan's financial account

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index rounds out a dismal Q4

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus deterioration not as bad as official stats suggest, but more to come

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

BoJ programmes are propping up M2 growth; Japan's machine tool orders tumble will get worse before better

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

PBoC MLF cut is housekeeping; further easing to come.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Signs of stabilisation in Chinese trade?

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Slowing FAI growth underscores the urgency for more PBoC easing October was painful and the slowdown in Chinese IP growth is far from over and no, households in China won't come to the economy's rescue. Japan sneaks in a tax hike; GDP data unfazed. Japan's tertiary index jars with the GDP data.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Mr. Trump's partial U-turn on September tariffs shows some semblance of an understanding of reality...that's a good thing. China's industrial production crushes June hopes of a swift recovery. Chinese consumers struggle. Chinese FAI: the infrastructure industry growth slowdown is especially worrying. Japan's strong core machine orders rebound in June probably faded in recent weeks. Korea's jobless rate will soon creep back up after remaining steady in July.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

Relative import strength jars with domestic data, while exports have yet to feel the full virus hit

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI inflation probably just peaked

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Positives in the Tankan survey should be taken with a pinch of salt.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index shows Q2 services strength was merely an April leap. Japan's PPI is slated for more deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

April revision means little to the overall damage done by Japan's state of emergency

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Don't get too excited on Japanese domestic demand just yet

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Evidence continues to build that Korea's August unemployment plunge was a fluke. October sales tax hike in Japan opens the door for a quicker exit from PPI deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Surprise stability in Korea's unemployment rate won't last. Risks to Japan's current account surplus are weighted to the downside

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's PMI had suggested an upside surprise, but now points firmly down

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's homes market faces fundamental headwinds.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Job losses in the over-60 group pull Korea's unemployment rate higher in December. Japanese M2 growth holds steady in December. Still no clear signs of a recovery in machine tool orders in Japan.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Mar 2020 part 1 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ is doing everything within its power to cushion the virus blow. The PBoC is driving down market rates without a formal corridor cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

No new measures from the BoJ, as sees light at the end of the tunnel.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's consensus-beating Q2 GDP signals that it is done easing. Chinese industry drove the Q2 rebound... now comes the hard part. The recovery in manufacturing capex in China continues to disappoint. The upward momentum in China's property market is unlikely to last. The BoK held, but Governor Lee's rhetoric suggests it should've cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Mar 2020 part 2 (Publication Centre)

China's retail sector is on its knees at best. China's IP data suggest that the horrendous PMIs underplayed the carnage. A damning FAI report... tertiary capex should rebound, but the hit to global demand will hold back the secondary industry. China's property market grounds to a halt in February. The Bank of Korea steps in with an emergency cut, despite falling new infections locally.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's PMI report bodes well for Q3, but points to headwinds thereafter. PPI deflation in Korea is unlikely to get worse than the August drop.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's industrial production growth downtrend worsens. China's retail sales dragged down by autos but boosted as people spend more at home. China's fixed asset investment growth slows despite greater support from infrastructure.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Don't expect the BoK to follow the BoJ's unorthodoxy in the foreseeable future. The upward correction in Korean unemployment has much more room to run.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation in Japan likely has peaked... expect steeper drops in coming months. China's property recovery is spreading to more cities.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's machinery orders boosted by one-off transportation spike. Japanese PPI ticks higher on commodities. China's new home price rises should remain on the tepid side for now .

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Judgement pending on Chinese industrial production. Chinese retail sales buoyed by inflation. Chinese FAI growth stable through Q4; local government spending better managed this year. China's housing market still not reached a bottom. Japan's tertiary index plunge is more tax hike than typhoon. Japan's PMIs underline damage from tax hike.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Our caution over China's March industrial production spike was justified. Chinese retail sales growth hits lows. Chinese FAI growth suggests private sector policy loosening isn't working. Japan's M2 growth upturn is a welcome break, but needs to be sustained. Korean unemployment jumps in April, showing the limits of the government's hiring spree.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Short-term trends in Chinese industry continued to soften in May, with catch-up growth fading, No noticeably May Day lift, as retail sales in China continue to fall behind, Chinese investment looks to have taken a breather in May, Don't put too much stock into the stronger increase in Chinese home prices, Japan's tertiary index should rebound from April, but Q2 is a write-off

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ holds steady... Expect more of the same for the rest of 2020.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese production surprises in April, as catch-up growth and inventory build continue; Disappointing sales headline in China masks respectable short-term trends; Recovery in secondary investment in China still lagged behind tertiary capex; PPI deflation has largely bottomed out, but don't expect a quick exit

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Easing of curbs so far won't slow property decline

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

A questionably stable monthly increase in Chinese production. Retail sales in China are back in the black, but not in volume terms. The recovery in manufacturing capex in China is starting to catch-up to the tertiary sector.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

PPI deflation should soon trough. Chinese food inflation takes off. Japan's tertiary index points to strong Q3 GDP growth.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index remains below trend despite looming tax hike

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's M2 growth is going nowhere fast. Japanese machine tool orders suggest some stabilisation in global activity.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour market remains tight but will face persistent slackening from here. Caixin manufacturing on a tear. In the end, CPI deflation in Korea lasted just one month. October probably was the y/y trough in Korea's export slump. Business sentiment in Korea is recovering... albeit only slowly.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Sharper energy and education deflation offset a jump in food prices in Tokyo. Lockdowns in Europe and the U.S. knock out Korean exports in April.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

April wasn't so bad for Korean exports, which are starting to bottom out in real terms

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Tankan points to a q/q contraction for capex in Q3, but GDP growth overall will stay strong. Japan's unemployment steady, but details bode ill for Q4. September's full-month data dispel some export worries in Korea; expect a Q3 lift from net trade. Korea's PMI pours cold water on the spectacular jobs report for August. September is as bad as it gets for Korean CPI deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in China is nearing a peak, with pork prices starting to stabilise. November's data confirm that PPI deflation in China has bottomed out. Japan's M2 growth looks exposed to a downward revision. Japan's machine tool orders refuse to turn.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

This will be as good as it gets for Japanese PPI

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Expect Chinese PPI deflation in the second half. China's CPI inflation faces non-core cross currents; services inflation still slowing. Unemployment in Korea held steady in June; the BoK will be chuffed about improving job growth. PPI deflation in Japan will persist until the end of the year.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation reflect pre-virus state of play. China's CPI inflation spikes due to holiday effects. Japan's current account to be damaged by virus

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in China are skating on thin ice. Construction is still doing most of the heavy lifting for China's non-manufacturing index. MoF data suggest that Japan probably avoided a technical recession in Q1, just. Korean exports stabilise in May, but Q2 still looks like a lost cause. Korea's PMI continued to sink in May, with no clear signs of a turnaround in export orders.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Tankan suggests downside risks to our -6% y/y Q2 GDP forecast. Private manufacturers in China continue to play catch-up. Expect a bumpy recovery for Korean exports in Q3. Korean business sentiment is finally recovering.

4 January 2018 2018-to-2019 will Expose Asian Imbalances, Hurting GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Let's say we are right, and global yields go up this year. Somewhere in the world, imbalances will be exposed, causing financial ructions and damaging GDP growth.

3 November 2017 Asian Policy Divergence Can't Continue. PBoC to Fold First (Publication Centre)

The two major central banks in Asia currently have hugely different aims, causing a policy divergence that won't survive the 2018 rise in external yields.

22 June 2017 Asian Exports Remain Sturdy in Q2, but the Outlook is Cloudy (Publication Centre)

Korea's preliminary export numbers rebounded quite spectacularly in June, with growth at 24.4% year-on-year, compared with just 3.4% in May. This reading is important as it comes early in the monthly data cycle. Korea's position close to the beginning of the global supply chain, moreover, means its exports often lead shifts in global trade.

4 September 2018 Asian PMIs Signal Trade Spat Damage, Korean Uptick is Transitory (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.6 in August, from July's 50.8. This clashed with the increase in the official PMI, though the moves in both indexes were modest.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

The Tankan survey reinforces our conviction in a c.2% y/y Q1 contraction in Japanese GDP. Caixin suggests March was as bad as February... that's bad. Ignore the headline, Korean exports rebounded strongly in March, salvaging Q1. Korean business sentiment is sinking to GFC territory.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Tankan reinforces our impression of a nasty Q2. China's manufacturing PMIs show why the authorities are eager for a trade deal. China's non-manufacturing sector holds steady for now. Korean exports disappointed in June, but this probably is as bad as it will get. Ignore Korea's volatile PMI readings... sentiment is improving gradually.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

PBoC holding still in the wake of Fed rate cut. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was due a bounce. Inflation in Korea will soon take another nosedive, due largely to unfavourable non-core base effects. Korea's export slump turned less bad in July. Korea's two main manufacturing surveys aren't talking to each other.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus rejoins previous uptrend. China's FX reserves; strong valuations boost outweighs sales. Japan's Q1 GDP gets an upgrade, at the expense of Q2. Japan's current account surplus.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

China still is on track for mild CPI deflation by Q4, PPI deflation in China has bottomed out , Core machine orders in Japan tank in the wake of the state of emergency, Adverse base effects from last year's tax hike will delay Japan's exit from PPI deflation, Surprise spike in Korea's unemployment rate makes sense given the plunge in jobs created

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's exit from PPI deflation will soon hit speed bumps

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

August plunge in Korean unemployment is unsustainable, but should effectively rule out another BoK cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's M2 growth stabilises but the near three year downtrend leaves GDP growth looking exposed

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Core machine orders hack a hole in the notion of resilient Japanese domestic demand

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's monetary and credit trends were looking better, but now stand to be damaged by... the virus scare. Virus hit still to come for Japanese machine tool orders? Korea's jobless rate is back to its pre-August one-off plunge.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Commodity prices continued to pummel Chinese PPI. Normalisation in pork prices will continue to drag CPI inflation down in China;

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI set for another bout of deflation

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's firms aren't passing on tax hikes after all. China takes full advantage of previous oil price declines. Japan's core machine orders better than expected, but that won't help Q2. Japan is heading for a spell of sustained PPI deflation in H2. Better May jobs report will help to keep any BoK rate cuts at bay.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in China punches through the 3% target. PPI deflation in China should soon bottom out. Japan's rugby boost small in the face of pre-tax front loading. September machinery orders data seriously undermines Japan's "resilient capex" story.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Covid-19 efforts in Korea, plus Q1 front-loading of jobs budget, result in February surprise.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's machinery orders are set to stay weak. Japan's PPI deflation likely just troughed.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage picture has turned ugly for workers, even accounting for sampling distortions. China's current account surplus increase is hard to fathom.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's PPI back in deflation until fall. China's February CPI inflation was a battle between food and services. M2 growth in Japan was due a further uptick, given the perkier trends at the margin. Favourable base effects flattered Japanese machine tool orders in February.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

July's punchy orders suggest Japan's capex slump could soon stabilise.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Big gains in the size of the labour force continue to flatter Korea's unemployment rate. Japan's exit from PPI deflation will be followed by only modest inflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's machine tool orders remain nasty. Japan's M2 growth shows first signs of looming tax hike.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index still has further to fall

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

Another punchy month for exports keeps Japan's surplus above water

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Mar 2020 part 3 (Publication Centre)

Japan's capex signals were picking up before the virus hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's PMI hit by renewed trade wars, while domestic demand shows signs of slowing. The fledgling recovery in Korean exports lost steam in June.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Non-core crosscurrents in Japanese CPI cancelled each other out in June. Ignore the headline... The details of Korea's 20-day export in July weren't that bad. The end is in sight for PPI deflation in Korea.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ's growth upgrade for fiscal 2020 is on the ambitious side, to say the least. Lunar New Year noise hit Korea's 20-day export print for January. Korea completes its exit from a brief and shallow spell of PPI deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

The renewed trade war is unfortunate timing, as Korea exports are stabilising at the margins. Revised index shows that Korean PPI inflation hasn't been missing this year.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade balance should recover as domestic weakness sets in; Japan's manufacturing PMI undermines H2 recovery hopes; Japan's services PMI paints a damning picture of Q2; Korea's export recovery from the April low will be more gradual than the descent; A lot more downside left for PPI deflation in Korea before Q3 trough

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

PPI deflation in Korea looks set to deepen, and rapidly so.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's prime rates are going nowhere; Chuseok effects flatter Korea's 20-day export numbers for September

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

November's 20-day data confirm that Korea's export slump bottomed out in October

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Further weakness to come for Japan's manufacturing PMI. First services hit from the coronavirus is damning. Japan's all-industry activity index suggests the 2019 tax hike was as bad as 2014. A drop in food inflation was enough to offset lagged oil pressures in Japan's January CPI. Ignore the headline; the coronavirus is now hurting Korean exports.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 August 2020 (Publication Centre)

This should be as high as it gets for Japanese inflation for a while, No significant economic damage from Japan's second wave, just yet, The recovery in Korean exports remains on track, PPI deflation in Korea eases for a second straight month

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q1 GDP number leaves sales tax delay on the table

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese banks send a message: no rate corridor cut, no LPR reduction, PPI deflation in Korea in Q2 seems inevitable

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ keeps it promises vague. Japan's April is turning out quite nicely. PPI inflation in Korea slipped in May, and is heading for deflation in Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 August 2020 (Publication Centre)

The worst--for the economy--is over in Japan, but the recovery will be muted

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's rate corridor cut was enough to bring down the LPR

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korean exports show no signs of additional pain from Japan's trade salvo. PPI deflation takes hold in Korea.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

A grim start to Q2, as developed world demand collapses

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash PMIs for August point to short-term gain and long-term pain. Construction is starting to show signs of peaking.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Korea's consensus-beating preliminary Q4 GDP print is susceptible to a downgrade

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Trade tensions weigh on Japan's PMI

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

An encouraging 20-day export print from Korea, as China plays catch-up

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

A two-tiered economic recovery is emerging in Japan. PPI deflation in Korea will soon bottom out

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Ignore the nasty 20-day print... Korea's export slump has bottomed out

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan will be in deflation in a few months. Stimulus fails to buoy Japan's construction sector. China's smaller TMLF injection means the facility has been superseded, while interbank rates already are low.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's inflationary upturn will be limited. Japan's activity index reinforces case for Q1 GDP downgrades.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Echoes of the global financial crisis and the 2011 tsunami in Japan's manufacturing PMI; Japan's services index tanks to a record low

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Korea's modest consumption rebound in Q2 barely cushioned the trade blow

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Korea's modest consumption rebound in Q2 barely cushioned the trade blow

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade balance continues to struggle with oil gains and post-tax hike recovery. Activity index shows downside risks to Q4 GDP.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's adjusted trade balance will remain in the red for now

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Loan prime rates unchanged, but an RRR cut looks imminent, Korean exports are heading into Q3 with promising momentum

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

A slow start to Q3 for Japan's economy.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

China dumped growth targeting, sending a signal through the deficit instead. The BoJ is doing all it can to support the economy. Japanese inflation quashed by oil price tumble.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Non-core items outweigh government measures in Japan's October CPI. Ignore the minor rebound in Japan's manufacturing PMI; the trend remains very weak. The post-tax drop and rebound in Japan's services PMI isn't as sharp, but Q4 looks vulnerable to a painful GDP hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan is creeping towards CPI deflation, but it should just about avoid it in Q4.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

Net trade and inventories cushion Korea's historic consumption collapse in Q1. Nasty Japan manufacturing readings, but we can extrapolate light at the end of the tunnel. A devastating services PMI report for Japan.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's LPRs will be frozen in the remainder of 2020, A disappointing bounce in Japanese exports in June kept the trade balance in the red

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

The PBoC is standing firm for now, but adjustments will be needed; Japan's machinery orders are defying gravity; gravity always wins in the end

ASIAN DATA WRAP 18 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

"Go To Travel" discounts cancel the non-core price lift in Japan

ASIAN DATA WRAP 18 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Weak oil prices and flagging domestic demand reduces Japan's trade deficit in August.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 18 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Chinese quarterly GDP growth was dire. China's industrial production was due an upward correction. China's retail sales data suggest that households took a Q3 battering. China's FAI growth shows no signs of turning. Japan's CPI avoids deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's new Loan Prime Rate amounts to a rate cut, but supply-side banking strains limit its efficacy. Chinese slowdown and pre-tax front-loading keeps Japan's trade balance in deficit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Unchanged LPR suggests continued need for easing.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade balance damaged by export weakness and previous oil price gains.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's core machine orders spell further capex woes; Japan's trade data show some early virus hit, but worse is to come

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ focuses on the positives, keeping the door open to increasing flexibility.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 18 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's housing recovery faces headwinds.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 18 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

More evidence of the damage from the tax hike.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Delayed oil effects wreak havoc on Japan's import bill

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Steady Q4 GDP growth in China masks respectable q/q rebound. Signs of recovery in China's industrial complex, but for how long? China's households continue to struggle. China's FAI growth shows rebuilding confidence around the Phase One deal. Japan's November tertiary index suggests October plunge was more tax than typhoon. January sees the first of many BoK "holds" this year.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP plunge: damning across the board, though with some modest potential for upward revision. China's rate cut was mainly a housekeeping move. China's housing market starts to feel the pinch from the virus.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Supply hit slams Japan; demand hit just beginning.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index underlines that Q4 was catch-up growth...Q1 is payback

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

An unsurprisingly uneventful BoJ meeting... big decisions won't be made until Q1.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's house price rises should continue slowing

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Outright CPI deflation in Japan is just around the corner

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 August 2020 (Publication Centre)

Exports to the U.S. drove Japan's tentative return to a trade surplus in July, A capex collapse in Japan is probably already underway

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

Rising inflation in Korea isn't indicative of an economic turnaround. Early signs that the BoJ has taken its foot off the gas on Covid QE.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs remain in the downdraft

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

October monetary base growth uptick attributable to shifts on the liabilities side; tapering continues.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

CPI deflation in Japan is looming, due to the collapse in global oil prices. January will be as good as it gets for Japan's all-industry activity index

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

PBoC furthers efforts to push down real economy rates, signals more to come.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's LPR drop tells us moral suasion is in full swing. PPI inflation in Korea has peaked, for now.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation has troughed; Japan's budget forecasts for next year are on the rosy side; China's LPR stability reflects precarious banking sector; Korea should make a complete exit from PPI deflation this month

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korean inflation surprises to the upside in April. Manufacturing surveys in Korea are turning up.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's Loan Prime Rate drop shows banks are toeing the line. Japan's trade balance should now rebuild.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Both China and U.S. look for good will on opposite side and find none; political and economic constraints will soon kick in. BoJ QE remains neutralised by negative yields

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's government is sucking out more private funds than it is pumping in. Weak oil prices will continue to pull down Korean inflation in the coming months.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

China PMI chimes with our GDP downgrade last week. China's non-manufacturing PMI weakest on construction. Japan's MoF capex numbers point to Q4 GDP downgrade. Ignore the consensus-beating headline, Korean exports were abysmal in February, calendar effects aside. The virus now has infected Korea's PMI; expect business surveys to get a lot worse.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs turn less grim, but look unsupported, for now. China's non-manufacturing PMI receives a one-off singles day boost. Japan's capex data suggests Q3 upgrade. Net trade is shaping up to be a drag on Q4 GDP, as Korean exports remained weak in November. Korea's exit from deflation is complete, thanks largely to more favourable base effects. Korea's PMI jumps in November... and that's before the likely sentiment boost from normalising ties with Japan.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ signals a package is coming in October. Waning construction tarnishes July's all-industry activity report. No PBoC move, for now, but it's coming.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Still no benchmark rate cuts, as the PBoC lowers the cost of its re-lending and re-discount loans. The lagged oil drag on Korean CPI is now receding. No signs, yet, of the BoJ taking its foot off the pedal on JGB purchases.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

A trivial upgrade to Korea's Q1 GDP, CPI deflation in Korea will last for the rest of 2020, Monetary base growth in Japan continued to accelerate in May, as the rate of QE rose

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ does what it can to avoid more deeply negative yields. Korean inflation should peak this month

16 July 2019 Better External Conditions will Support Brazil's Recovery (Publication Centre)

The ramifications of continued disappointing Asian growth, particularly in China, and its impact on global manufacturing, are especially hard-felt in LatAm.

12 August 2020 Global Monitor We take no comfort in the U.K. employment data (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Robust July payrolls, but the data will be worse in August and September • EUROZONE - What can investor sentiment tell us about the economy? • U.K. - The data will force the MPC to pivot towards more QE in Q4 • ASIA - The Asian economics team is on vacation • LATAM - Brazilian rates are on hold, for a long time

11 Mar 2020 Global Monitor Is this the beginning of a trend? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The slump in oil prices will be a net drag on the economy in the near term • EUROZONE - We try to make sense of a wild week in EZ and global markets • U.K. - The BOE will respond more timidly than its peers to Covid-19 • ASIA - The Fed has given Asian central banks room to cut, but they won't go overboard • LATAM - The collapse in oil prices increases the pressure on LatAm

23 January 2018 China's Demand for Foreign Goods Slows as Output Curbs Loosened? (Publication Centre)

Korean 20-day exports are volatile and often miss the mark with respect to the full-month print. But these data offer the month's first look at Asian trade, and we often find value in these early signs.

7 February 2018 The EZ Economy Should be Resilient to Rising Market Volatility (Publication Centre)

As we go to press, equities in the Eurozone are having a bad day following the collapse in U.S. and Asian equities earlier.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 20 (Publication Centre)

New Asian Cases Ticking Higher; European Growth Steady, but Rapid

5 August 2020 Global Monitor The rise in EURUSD makes sense, but easy does it (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Flat near-real time growth data don't mean zero Q3 GDP growth • EUROZONE - A revival of Covid-19 and a EURUSD rally; what gives? • U.K. - The MPC is on the fence regarding negative rates • ASIA - The Asian economics team is on vacation • LATAM - The virus has brought Mexico's economy to its knees

Asia Datanote: PBoC, BoJ and BoK Emergency Meetings (Publication Centre)

In one line: Asian central banks join global onslaught against Covid-19... to varying degrees

Freya Beamish

Freya Beamish produces the Asia service at Pantheon. She has several years of experience in covering the global economy, with a particular focus on China, Japan and Korea. Previously, she worked at Lombard Street Research (now TS Lombard), where she delivered research on Asia and the Global economy for over five years, latterly as the manager of the Macroeconomics group.

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