Search Results: 131
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.
Sorry, but our website is best viewed on a device with a screen width greater than 320px. You can contact us at: firstname.lastname@example.org.
131 matches for " asian":
A slew of Asian price numbers are due this Friday, and they will all likely show that price gains softened further in January.
Korean trade activity is slowing.
The Asian PMIs point to a strengthening manufacturing sector in September but external demand is the driver.
In terms of one-day moves, the drop in U.S. equities yesterday and Asian equities in the past two days has been pretty bad.
The past year has been difficult for Asian economies, with trade wars, natural disasters, and misguided policies, to name a few, putting a dampener on growth.
Korean exports are often a useful gauge of Asian and global trade; the country sits near the beginning of the global supply chain. It also happens to publish early in the data cycle and provides a measure of exports in the first 20 days of the month.
China recovery falters...and now tariffs...Japan's Q1 gdp growth was a mirage; Korean exports are turning the corner, just...India's status quo vote won't turn growth around
China's first recourse: Secure a trade deal...The boj is reticent to join the chorus of doves...The bok won't blink, green shoots are evident...India's Q1 was poor, but rbi cuts are overkill
Early signs of financial fragilities emerge...with policymakers fretting, after the fact
U.S. profligacy will extend Asia's cycle...but domestic demand to struggle this year and next
China Delivers Stimulus; No Trough Yet...Korea and Japan Pummelled by China's Slowdown...Time for a Boj Inflation Target Rethink?
China's social contract has changed...Fed normalisation to test the new paradism
Back to 2014/2015 for China? A Weak Q3 for Japan, After Rocket-Charged Q2...The BOK Will Kick Its Rate Hike Into the Long Grass
Investors are increasingly anxious that an intentional sharp devaluation of the renminbi, aiming to combat China's slowdown, might lead to prolonged deflation in the West, particularly in an economy as open as the U.K.
The pace of layoffs might be picking up. Our first chart looks pretty convincing, but it's much too soon to know for sure. The claims data from mid-December through late January are subject to serious seasonal adjustment problems, partly because Christmas falls on a different day of the week each year and partly because the exact timing of post-holiday layoffs varies from year-to-year.
China Takes the Trade High Road..The BOJ will Act Before Markets Expect Unemployment Upshift Rules out 2018 BOK Hike
Tariffs are unlikely to damage GDP this year...But the tension is unveiling financial fragilities
Asia supported by U.S. demand in Q3...while domestic demand weakens in China and Japan
China's Stimulus Faces Q4 Hurdles...Japan Bounced Back in October but will it last?...Misplaced BoK Hopes for Stable Growth
BOJ is out of ammo; PBOC still has options...and is likely to fight back against RMB strength
Chia faces a u-shaped recovery..Japan's domestic demand strentgh is fragile...The bank of Korea is likely to pause, for now...Expect a respectable Q2 GDP rebound in India
Winter has come as China curbs pollution...Asia will use fed hikes to tackle financial risks
China's switch to easing shows up in the data...The BOJ takes a baby step away from uber-easing
Is This Really The Recovery For China?...Japan Catches A Cold;...Q1 Will Be Poor, But The BOK Is Set For A Long Pause
China's 2018 growth forecast revised up...but activity in Japan took a breather in Q1
China's Stimulus Faces Q4 Hurdles....Japan Bouced Back in October, But Will it Last? Growth in Korea is Set to Become Much Weaker
A Major Turning Point For China? Financial Fragilities; Political Regime Change
China shifts to easing but scope is limited...While the Boj is set to tweak its yield curve targets
Chinese GDP Growth Won't Trough Until Q3...The Window For BOJ Adjustments Is Narrowing...Not Buying Into Korea's Consensus-Beating Q4 GDP
Japan's labour cash earnings rose by 1.5% year-over- year in July, a strong result in the Japanese context, if it hadn't been preceded by the 3.6% leap in June.
China Downtrend Worse; Outlook Better..Japan's Bouncy Q4 Won't Be Repeated In Q1...Korea's Job Market Pummelled By Minimum Wage Hike
After June respite, China will hit Q3 headwinds...Japan probably dodged a Q2 GDP contraction...The BOK's surprise cut in July is a one-and-done...The case for additional RBI cuts narrows further
Yesterday's Chinese PMI numbers disappointed forecasts across the board, failing to meet widespread expectations for either stability or a continued, albeit marginal, improvement in April.
While we were out, most of the core domestic economic data were quite strong, with the exception of the soft July home sales numbers and the Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
In recent months we've been thinking more deeply about the themes for the next economic cycle for China, and its impact on the world.
The Caixin manufacturing headline was unremarkable, but the input price index signals that PPI inflation is set to rise again in May, to 4.0%-plus, from 3.4% in April.
Japan's retail sales values jumped 1.2% month-on-month in October, after the upwardly-revised 0.1% increase in September.
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI doused hopes of turning over a January new leaf; it dropped to 49.7 in November, from 50.2 in December.
Demand in German manufacturing slid at the start of Q3.
Recent market turmoil and concerns on the outlook for global growth have re-awakened talk of stimulus. For the BoJ, this inevitably raises the question of what could possibly be done, given that policy already appears to be on the excessively loose side of loose.
The PBoC cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio late on Friday--as signalled at last Wednesday's State Council meeting--by 0.5 percentage points, to be implemented from September 16.
China's authorities recognised, around the middle of this year, that activity was slowing and that monetary conditions had become overly tight.
China's unadjusted current account surplus widened to $16.0B in the preliminary report for Q3, from $5.3B in Q2.
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted yesterday to cut the benchmark repo rate by a further 25 basis points, to 5.75%, a nine-year low.
The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea will tomorrow hold its final meeting for the year.
This Monitor provides a summary of the main points of interest over the two weeks we were out. The Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI, published last Friday, confounded expectations for a modest fall, rising to 51.6 in August from 51.1 in July.
Japanese domestic demand probably strengthened in Q2, with both private consumption and fixed investment accelerating. Trade and inventories are the key swing components for GDP growth.
Japanese real Q2 GDP growth surprised analysts, increasing sharply to a quarterly annualised rate of 4.0%, up from 1.0% in Q1 and much higher than the consensus, 2.5%. But its no coincidence that the jump in Japanese growth follows strong growth in China in Q1.
After strong real GDP growth in Q1, China commentators called the peak, claiming that growth would slow for the rest of 2017.
The Board of the Bank of Korea will meet again in less than a week's time for this year's penultimate meeting.
At the time of writing, Mr. Trump reportedly is finalising plans to impose tariffs of up to 25% on a further $200B of imports from China.
Recent industrial data for Mexico point to renewed upside risks for GDP growth, despite the likely headwind to consumption from high inflation and depressed confidence.
When Park Geun-hye came to power in Korea 2013, it was to cheers of "economic democratisation". At the time, I wrote a report with a list of reforms that would be needed for Korea to "economically democratise".
Japan's national CPI inflation has peaked, falling to 0.7% in May from 0.9% in April.
The BoJ yesterday published its semi-annual Financial System Report, which often gives insights into the longer-term thinking driving BoJ policy.
Yesterday's February PMI data sent a clear message to markets.
The latest trade data from Korea underscore the unfortunate timing of the resumption of the U.S.-China tit-for-tat tariff war.
The two key planks of the argument that a substantial easing of fiscal policy won't be inflationary are that labor participation will be dragged higher, limiting the decline in the unemployment rate, while productivity growth will rebound, so unit labor costs will remain under control.
China's see-sawing trade surplus is likely to continue in the short run, but it mostly has peaked. Japan's unadjusted current account surplus slipped to ¥1,211B in June, from ¥1,595B in May, marginally surpassing the consensus, ¥1,149B.
Valuation effects boost China's June FX reserves. Japan's currency account surplus unlikely to fall further. Japan's core machine orders should shake policymakers' conviction in Capex resilience.
Japan's bonus drop is dictating spending in Q3
Japan's wage growth bounces back on volatile bonuses; distortions still at play? Korea's current account surplus has bottomed out, but pressure on the won will continue to rise in the S/T.
Japan's Q2 GDP growth was not all it's cracked up to be. M2 growth in Japan inched up in July, but trends at the margin have rolled over. China's July inflation uptick shows that the swine flu outbreak is nowhere near under control. China officially enters PPI deflation... but it shouldn't last beyond Q3.
Japan's capex on a much weaker footing than original data showed. Japan's current account surplus will continue to face cross-currents. China's export weakness is not over yet. China FX reserves spared as intervention goes on behind the scenes.
Korea's current account surplus rebounded on a smaller services deficit in July
China's trade surplus falls unexpectedly in April, thanks partly to a bump in imports. Japan's services PMI falls despite holiday boost. The BoJ remains in a holding pattern. Korea's current account surplus rose in March, but its overall downtrend remains intact.
Not giving up on China's stimulus yet. China's PPI inflation will head higher this month. China's CPI inflation will peak soon.
Japan's money growth reverts back after a brief uptick. Japan's wage headline improves, details deteriorate. Japan's machine tool orders should turn stomachs.
Korea's current account balance returns to the black in May
China's homes market faces fundamental headwinds.
Our caution over China's March industrial production spike was justified. Chinese retail sales growth hits lows. Chinese FAI growth suggests private sector policy loosening isn't working. Japan's M2 growth upturn is a welcome break, but needs to be sustained. Korean unemployment jumps in April, showing the limits of the government's hiring spree.
Japan's trade surplus deterioration not as bad as official stats suggest, but more to come
Mr. Trump's partial U-turn on September tariffs shows some semblance of an understanding of reality...that's a good thing. China's industrial production crushes June hopes of a swift recovery. Chinese consumers struggle. Chinese FAI: the infrastructure industry growth slowdown is especially worrying. Japan's strong core machine orders rebound in June probably faded in recent weeks. Korea's jobless rate will soon creep back up after remaining steady in July.
Japan's tertiary index shows Q2 services strength was merely an April leap. Japan's PPI is slated for more deflation.
Don't get too excited on Japanese domestic demand just yet
PPI inflation in Japan likely has peaked... expect steeper drops in coming months. China's property recovery is spreading to more cities.
China's industrial production growth downtrend worsens. China's retail sales dragged down by autos but boosted as people spend more at home. China's fixed asset investment growth slows despite greater support from infrastructure.
Weak oil prices and flagging domestic demand reduces Japan's trade deficit in August.
Japan's services PMI points to Q2 GDP contraction. China's Caixin services PMI highlights the reasons for official concern over employment. Korea's current account slips into deficit for the first time since 2012.
China's housing recovery faces headwinds.
China's house price rises should continue slowing
Japan's tertiary index underlines that Q4 was catch-up growth...Q1 is payback
Japan's tertiary index remains below trend despite looming tax hike
China's firms aren't passing on tax hikes after all. China takes full advantage of previous oil price declines. Japan's core machine orders better than expected, but that won't help Q2. Japan is heading for a spell of sustained PPI deflation in H2. Better May jobs report will help to keep any BoK rate cuts at bay.
PBoC holding still in the wake of Fed rate cut. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was due a bounce. Inflation in Korea will soon take another nosedive, due largely to unfavourable non-core base effects. Korea's export slump turned less bad in July. Korea's two main manufacturing surveys aren't talking to each other.
Tankan reinforces our impression of a nasty Q2. China's manufacturing PMIs show why the authorities are eager for a trade deal. China's non-manufacturing sector holds steady for now. Korean exports disappointed in June, but this probably is as bad as it will get. Ignore Korea's volatile PMI readings... sentiment is improving gradually.
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.6 in August, from July's 50.8. This clashed with the increase in the official PMI, though the moves in both indexes were modest.
Let's say we are right, and global yields go up this year. Somewhere in the world, imbalances will be exposed, causing financial ructions and damaging GDP growth.
Korea's preliminary export numbers rebounded quite spectacularly in June, with growth at 24.4% year-on-year, compared with just 3.4% in May. This reading is important as it comes early in the monthly data cycle. Korea's position close to the beginning of the global supply chain, moreover, means its exports often lead shifts in global trade.
The two major central banks in Asia currently have hugely different aims, causing a policy divergence that won't survive the 2018 rise in external yields.
April wasn't so bad for Korean exports, which are starting to bottom out in real terms
Expect Chinese PPI deflation in the second half. China's CPI inflation faces non-core cross currents; services inflation still slowing. Unemployment in Korea held steady in June; the BoK will be chuffed about improving job growth. PPI deflation in Japan will persist until the end of the year.
Japan's machine tool orders remain nasty. Japan's M2 growth shows first signs of looming tax hike.
August plunge in Korean unemployment is unsustainable, but should effectively rule out another BoK cut.
Japan's tertiary index still has further to fall
Japan's wage picture has turned ugly for workers, even accounting for sampling distortions. China's current account surplus increase is hard to fathom.
China's trade surplus rejoins previous uptrend. China's FX reserves; strong valuations boost outweighs sales. Japan's Q1 GDP gets an upgrade, at the expense of Q2. Japan's current account surplus.
Japan's trade balance damaged by export weakness and previous oil price gains.
China's new Loan Prime Rate amounts to a rate cut, but supply-side banking strains limit its efficacy. Chinese slowdown and pre-tax front-loading keeps Japan's trade balance in deficit.
Minimal front-loading ahead of Japan's October tax hike so far.
China's Caixin gauge still to register renewed tariff threat. Japan's Capex growth on borrowed time. Korean exports stumble in May, but Q2 is shaping up to be better than Q1. Korea's PMI for May highlights the still-huge downside risks facing exporters.
Japan's stable unemployment rate belies underlying weakness. Tokyo energy inflation turns the corner. Sales tax preparations breathe life into Japanese production in May... if only temporarily. Korea's IP plunge in May shows why Japan can't rest on its laurels.
Chinese profits show signs of stabilisation, but headwinds will continue
BoJ signals a package is coming in October. Waning construction tarnishes July's all-industry activity report. No PBoC move, for now, but it's coming.
Japan: Monetary base growth slowed to 2.8% y/y in August, from 3.7% in July. Bloomberg reports no consensus, Korea: Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 1.0% q/q, from 1.1% in the preliminary report, below the no-change consensus. • Korea: CPI inflation fell to 0.0% in August, from 0.6% in July, below the consensus, 0.2%.
Focus on Japan's job-to-applicant ratio, not the unemployment rate
Korea's Q1 GDP downgrade will fuel calls for a rate cut. CPI inflation in Korea should soon peak out. Ignore the uptick in Japanese monetary base; it's a one off.
The Caixin services PMI was due a bounce
China's manufacturing PMI was poised for major disappointment... the trade war impact is clear. Don't be fooled by the relative stability of China's non-manufacturing PMI. Japan's March unemployment uptick was early; April was payback. Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's industrial production ticks up after extreme weakness; don't hold your breath for the recovery. Japan's consumers in poor shape, but maybe it's not that bad. The upswing in Korean industrial production likely to take a breather this month. The BoK holds firm, despite rising calls for a rate cut.
China's manufacturing PMI edged up in July. Services in China are finally starting to feel the pinch. Korean IP looks poised for a stronger increase in July, notwithstanding Japan's export curbs.
BoJ snubs the doves. Japan's unemployment rate downtick was minimal. The weak external backdrop dominates Japan's pre-tax front-loading industrial activity.
Trade tensions weigh on Japan's PMI
Japan's inflationary upturn will be limited. Japan's activity index reinforces case for Q1 GDP downgrades.
China's manufacturing PMIs remain in the downdraft
Japan is creeping towards CPI deflation, but it should just about avoid it in Q4.
Korean inflation surprises to the upside in April. Manufacturing surveys in Korea are turning up.
BoJ does what it can to avoid more deeply negative yields. Korean inflation should peak this month
Both China and U.S. look for good will on opposite side and find none; political and economic constraints will soon kick in. BoJ QE remains neutralised by negative yields
The BoJ keeps it promises vague. Japan's April is turning out quite nicely. PPI inflation in Korea slipped in May, and is heading for deflation in Q3.
PBoC furthers efforts to push down real economy rates, signals more to come.
Japan's Q1 GDP number leaves sales tax delay on the table
Japan's adjusted trade balance will remain in the red for now
The renewed trade war is unfortunate timing, as Korea exports are stabilising at the margins. Revised index shows that Korean PPI inflation hasn't been missing this year.
Japan's flash PMIs for August point to short-term gain and long-term pain. Construction is starting to show signs of peaking.
Korean exports show no signs of additional pain from Japan's trade salvo. PPI deflation takes hold in Korea.
Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's PMI hit by renewed trade wars, while domestic demand shows signs of slowing. The fledgling recovery in Korean exports lost steam in June.
The ramifications of continued disappointing Asian growth, particularly in China, and its impact on global manufacturing, are especially hard-felt in LatAm.
Korean 20-day exports are volatile and often miss the mark with respect to the full-month print. But these data offer the month's first look at Asian trade, and we often find value in these early signs.
As we go to press, equities in the Eurozone are having a bad day following the collapse in U.S. and Asian equities earlier.
Freya Beamish produces the Asia service at Pantheon. She has several years of experience in covering the global economy, with a particular focus on China, Japan and Korea. Previously, she worked at Lombard Street Research (now TS Lombard), where she delivered research on Asia and the Global economy for over five years, latterly as the manager of the Macroeconomics group.
pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research