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19 February 2019 Expect to See a Further Softening in Asian Price Data this Friday (Publication Centre)

A slew of Asian price numbers are due this Friday, and they will all likely show that price gains softened further in January.

22 June 2018 Asian Data Point to Slowing World Trade Growth this Year (Publication Centre)

Korean trade activity is slowing.

3 October 2017 Manufacturing Powers Ahead, Supported by External Demand (Publication Centre)

The Asian PMIs point to a strengthening manufacturing sector in September but external demand is the driver.

7 February 2018 Global Liquidity has been Damaged Recently, but 2008 this is not (Publication Centre)

In terms of one-day moves, the drop in U.S. equities yesterday and Asian equities in the past two days has been pretty bad.

24 July 2017 Asian Trade Dragged Down by Chinese Slump (Publication Centre)

Korean exports are often a useful gauge of Asian and global trade; the country sits near the beginning of the global supply chain. It also happens to publish early in the data cycle and provides a measure of exports in the first 20 days of the month.

26 November 2018 The Coming Year won't Provide Much Respite for Asian Economies (Publication Centre)

The past year has been difficult for Asian economies, with trade wars, natural disasters, and misguided policies, to name a few, putting a dampener on growth.

*November 2017 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's social contract has changed...Fed normalisation to test the new paradism

*November 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Stimulus Faces Q4 Hurdles...Japan Bounced Back in October but will it last?...Misplaced BoK Hopes for Stable Growth

*May 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China recovery falters...and now tariffs...Japan's Q1 gdp growth was a mirage; Korean exports are turning the corner, just...India's status quo vote won't turn growth around

*March 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Delivers Stimulus; No Trough Yet...Korea and Japan Pummelled by China's Slowdown...Time for a Boj Inflation Target Rethink?

*October 2017 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Asia supported by U.S. demand in Q3...while domestic demand weakens in China and Japan

*May 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Early signs of financial fragilities emerge...with policymakers fretting, after the fact

*October 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Back to 2014/2015 for China? A Weak Q3 for Japan, After Rocket-Charged Q2...The BOK Will Kick Its Rate Hike Into the Long Grass

04 Feb. 2016 Are Jobless Claims Starting to Rise? If so, Where Will They Stop? (Publication Centre)

The pace of layoffs might be picking up. Our first chart looks pretty convincing, but it's much too soon to know for sure. The claims data from mid-December through late January are subject to serious seasonal adjustment problems, partly because Christmas falls on a different day of the week each year and partly because the exact timing of post-holiday layoffs varies from year-to-year.

*March 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

U.S. profligacy will extend Asia's cycle...but domestic demand to struggle this year and next

*September 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Takes the Trade High Road..The BOJ will Act Before Markets Expect Unemployment Upshift Rules out 2018 BOK Hike

03 Feb. 2016 Would a Renminbi Depreciation Derail the Pick-up in U.K. Inflation? (Publication Centre)

Investors are increasingly anxious that an intentional sharp devaluation of the renminbi, aiming to combat China's slowdown, might lead to prolonged deflation in the West, particularly in an economy as open as the U.K.

1 May 2019 No Reason to Panic a Correction in China's PMIs was Coming (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Chinese PMI numbers disappointed forecasts across the board, failing to meet widespread expectations for either stability or a continued, albeit marginal, improvement in April.

*January 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Chinese GDP Growth Won't Trough Until Q3...The Window For BOJ Adjustments Is Narrowing...Not Buying Into Korea's Consensus-Beating Q4 GDP

*April 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Is This Really The Recovery For China?...Japan Catches A Cold;...Q1 Will Be Poor, But The BOK Is Set For A Long Pause

*August 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's switch to easing shows up in the data...The BOJ takes a baby step away from uber-easing

*December 2017 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Winter has come as China curbs pollution...Asia will use fed hikes to tackle financial risks

*December 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Stimulus Faces Q4 Hurdles....Japan Bouced Back in October, But Will it Last? Growth in Korea is Set to Become Much Weaker

*April 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's 2018 growth forecast revised up...but activity in Japan took a breather in Q1

*February 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Downtrend Worse; Outlook Better..Japan's Bouncy Q4 Won't Be Repeated In Q1...Korea's Job Market Pummelled By Minimum Wage Hike

*June 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Tariffs are unlikely to damage GDP this year...But the tension is unveiling financial fragilities

*July 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China shifts to easing but scope is limited...While the Boj is set to tweak its yield curve targets

10 September 2018 Japan's Big Wage Increases Point to Robust Q3 Private Consumption (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour cash earnings rose by 1.5% year-over- year in July, a strong result in the Japanese context, if it hadn't been preceded by the 3.6% leap in June.

*January 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

BOJ is out of ammo; PBOC still has options...and is likely to fight back against RMB strength

*June 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's first recourse: Secure a trade deal...The boj is reticent to join the chorus of doves...The bok won't blink, green shoots are evident...India's Q1 was poor, but rbi cuts are overkill

14 August 2017 China's Slowdown Surprised Japan, Inventories to Boost Q2 GDP (Publication Centre)

Japanese domestic demand probably strengthened in Q2, with both private consumption and fixed investment accelerating. Trade and inventories are the key swing components for GDP growth.

4 September 2017 China's PMIs Imply Producer Prices are Still Rising Rapidly (Publication Centre)

This Monitor provides a summary of the main points of interest over the two weeks we were out. The Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI, published last Friday, confounded expectations for a modest fall, rising to 51.6 in August from 51.1 in July.

4 June 2018 Chinese PPI Inflation is Set to Head Higher, it will be Short-lived (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing headline was unremarkable, but the input price index signals that PPI inflation is set to rise again in May, to 4.0%-plus, from 3.4% in April.

30 November 2018 Japan's Retail Sales Deliver a Rosy October Jump - Blip or Trend? (Publication Centre)

Japan's retail sales values jumped 1.2% month-on-month in October, after the upwardly-revised 0.1% increase in September.

3 January 2019 China's PMIs Deteriorate What are the Positives Amid the Gloom (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI doused hopes of turning over a January new leaf; it dropped to 49.7 in November, from 50.2 in December.

4 September 2018 Is Fear of Further Tariffs Boosting Capex and Inventory-Building? (Publication Centre)

While we were out, most of the core domestic economic data were quite strong, with the exception of the soft July home sales numbers and the Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

5 November 2018 China's Role in Global Rates over the Next 10 Years (Publication Centre)

In recent months we've been thinking more deeply about the themes for the next economic cycle for China, and its impact on the world.

7 September 2018 Are Chinese Efforts to Stabilise Growth Starving Private Firms (Publication Centre)

China's authorities recognised, around the middle of this year, that activity was slowing and that monetary conditions had become overly tight.

7 November 2018 China's Q3 BoP Data Confirm Trade War-Related Capital Flight (Publication Centre)

China's unadjusted current account surplus widened to $16.0B in the preliminary report for Q3, from $5.3B in Q2.

7 June 2019 The RBI's Third Rate Cut is Overkill a U-Turn is Likely, Soon (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted yesterday to cut the benchmark repo rate by a further 25 basis points, to 5.75%, a nine-year low.

7 December 2018 Will the BoJ be Put Off Policy Adjustments by Market Turmoil? (Publication Centre)

Recent market turmoil and concerns on the outlook for global growth have re-awakened talk of stimulus. For the BoJ, this inevitably raises the question of what could possibly be done, given that policy already appears to be on the excessively loose side of loose.

29 November 2018 We're Holding our Non-Consensus View for no Bank of Korea Hike (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea will tomorrow hold its final meeting for the year.

25 July 2017 Korean Q2 GDP Growth to Provide Evidence of Chinese Slowdown (Publication Centre)

After strong real GDP growth in Q1, China commentators called the peak, claiming that growth would slow for the rest of 2017.

15 August 2017 China's Boomlet Causes Volatility for Japan, Second Half to Weaken (Publication Centre)

Japanese real Q2 GDP growth surprised analysts, increasing sharply to a quarterly annualised rate of 4.0%, up from 1.0% in Q1 and much higher than the consensus, 2.5%. But its no coincidence that the jump in Japanese growth follows strong growth in China in Q1.

*February 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Major Turning Point For China? Financial Fragilities; Political Regime Change

13 June 2017 Debt-Fuelled Korean Consumption is at Risk as Rates Rise (Publication Centre)

When Park Geun-hye came to power in Korea 2013, it was to cheers of "economic democratisation". At the time, I wrote a report with a list of reforms that would be needed for Korea to "economically democratise".

12 October 2018 Sticking to our Call for the Bank of Korea to Remain on Hold (Publication Centre)

The Board of the Bank of Korea will meet again in less than a week's time for this year's penultimate meeting.

15 May 2017 Mexican Manufacturing set to Remain Resilient in Q2 and Q3 (Publication Centre)

Recent industrial data for Mexico point to renewed upside risks for GDP growth, despite the likely headwind to consumption from high inflation and depressed confidence.

20 April 2018 Why the BoJ Needs to Steepen the JGB Yield Curve (Publication Centre)

The BoJ yesterday published its semi-annual Financial System Report, which often gives insights into the longer-term thinking driving BoJ policy.

24 June 2019 Japan's CPI Inflation has Peaked but the BoJ isn't Bothered (Publication Centre)

Japan's national CPI inflation has peaked, falling to 0.7% in May from 0.9% in April.

22 May 2019 Not Out of the Woods, but Korea is Signalling a U-Turn in World Trade (Publication Centre)

The latest trade data from Korea underscore the unfortunate timing of the resumption of the U.S.-China tit-for-tat tariff war.

22 February 2019 This Month's PMI Headline: Weak Manufacturing, Strong Services (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's February PMI data sent a clear message to markets.

20 December 2016 Fiscal Easing Likely Would Boost Productivity, but not by Enough (Publication Centre)

The two key planks of the argument that a substantial easing of fiscal policy won't be inflationary are that labor participation will be dragged higher, limiting the decline in the unemployment rate, while productivity growth will rebound, so unit labor costs will remain under control.

11 September 2018 The Trade Wars are Neutral in China's Trade Surplus, so far (Publication Centre)

At the time of writing, Mr. Trump reportedly is finalising plans to impose tariffs of up to 25% on a further $200B of imports from China.

ASIAN DATAWRAP 8 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus falls unexpectedly in April, thanks partly to a bump in imports. Japan's services PMI falls despite holiday boost. The BoJ remains in a holding pattern. Korea's current account surplus rose in March, but its overall downtrend remains intact.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's firms aren't passing on tax hikes after all. China takes full advantage of previous oil price declines. Japan's core machine orders better than expected, but that won't help Q2. Japan is heading for a spell of sustained PPI deflation in H2. Better May jobs report will help to keep any BoK rate cuts at bay.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's machine tool orders remain nasty. Japan's M2 growth shows first signs of looming tax hike.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index still has further to fall

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Don't get too excited on Japanese domestic demand just yet

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus deterioration not as bad as official stats suggest, but more to come

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index underlines that Q4 was catch-up growth...Q1 is payback

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation in Japan likely has peaked... expect steeper drops in coming months. China's property recovery is spreading to more cities.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Our caution over China's March industrial production spike was justified. Chinese retail sales growth hits lows. Chinese FAI growth suggests private sector policy loosening isn't working. Japan's M2 growth upturn is a welcome break, but needs to be sustained. Korean unemployment jumps in April, showing the limits of the government's hiring spree.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage picture has turned ugly for workers, even accounting for sampling distortions. China's current account surplus increase is hard to fathom.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus rejoins previous uptrend. China's FX reserves; strong valuations boost outweighs sales. Japan's Q1 GDP gets an upgrade, at the expense of Q2. Japan's current account surplus.

4 January 2018 2018-to-2019 will Expose Asian Imbalances, Hurting GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Let's say we are right, and global yields go up this year. Somewhere in the world, imbalances will be exposed, causing financial ructions and damaging GDP growth.

3 November 2017 Asian Policy Divergence Can't Continue. PBoC to Fold First (Publication Centre)

The two major central banks in Asia currently have hugely different aims, causing a policy divergence that won't survive the 2018 rise in external yields.

22 June 2017 Asian Exports Remain Sturdy in Q2, but the Outlook is Cloudy (Publication Centre)

Korea's preliminary export numbers rebounded quite spectacularly in June, with growth at 24.4% year-on-year, compared with just 3.4% in May. This reading is important as it comes early in the monthly data cycle. Korea's position close to the beginning of the global supply chain, moreover, means its exports often lead shifts in global trade.

4 September 2018 Asian PMIs Signal Trade Spat Damage, Korean Uptick is Transitory (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.6 in August, from July's 50.8. This clashed with the increase in the official PMI, though the moves in both indexes were modest.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Tankan reinforces our impression of a nasty Q2. China's manufacturing PMIs show why the authorities are eager for a trade deal. China's non-manufacturing sector holds steady for now. Korean exports disappointed in June, but this probably is as bad as it will get. Ignore Korea's volatile PMI readings... sentiment is improving gradually.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Expect Chinese PPI deflation in the second half. China's CPI inflation faces non-core cross currents; services inflation still slowing. Unemployment in Korea held steady in June; the BoK will be chuffed about improving job growth. PPI deflation in Japan will persist until the end of the year.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

April wasn't so bad for Korean exports, which are starting to bottom out in real terms

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade balance damaged by export weakness and previous oil price gains.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 18 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's housing recovery faces headwinds.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's current account balance returns to the black in May

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI was poised for major disappointment... the trade war impact is clear. Don't be fooled by the relative stability of China's non-manufacturing PMI. Japan's March unemployment uptick was early; April was payback. Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's industrial production ticks up after extreme weakness; don't hold your breath for the recovery. Japan's consumers in poor shape, but maybe it's not that bad. The upswing in Korean industrial production likely to take a breather this month. The BoK holds firm, despite rising calls for a rate cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ does what it can to avoid more deeply negative yields. Korean inflation should peak this month

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korea's Q1 GDP downgrade will fuel calls for a rate cut. CPI inflation in Korea should soon peak out. Ignore the uptick in Japanese monetary base; it's a one off.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 5 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's services PMI points to Q2 GDP contraction. China's Caixin services PMI highlights the reasons for official concern over employment. Korea's current account slips into deficit for the first time since 2012.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Not giving up on China's stimulus yet. China's PPI inflation will head higher this month. China's CPI inflation will peak soon.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's money growth reverts back after a brief uptick. Japan's wage headline improves, details deteriorate. Japan's machine tool orders should turn stomachs.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 8 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Valuation effects boost China's June FX reserves. Japan's currency account surplus unlikely to fall further. Japan's core machine orders should shake policymakers' conviction in Capex resilience.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's stable unemployment rate belies underlying weakness. Tokyo energy inflation turns the corner. Sales tax preparations breathe life into Japanese production in May... if only temporarily. Korea's IP plunge in May shows why Japan can't rest on its laurels.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin gauge still to register renewed tariff threat. Japan's Capex growth on borrowed time. Korean exports stumble in May, but Q2 is shaping up to be better than Q1. Korea's PMI for May highlights the still-huge downside risks facing exporters.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q1 GDP number leaves sales tax delay on the table

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's inflationary upturn will be limited. Japan's activity index reinforces case for Q1 GDP downgrades.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Korean inflation surprises to the upside in April. Manufacturing surveys in Korea are turning up.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's PMI hit by renewed trade wars, while domestic demand shows signs of slowing. The fledgling recovery in Korean exports lost steam in June.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ keeps it promises vague. Japan's April is turning out quite nicely. PPI inflation in Korea slipped in May, and is heading for deflation in Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Trade tensions weigh on Japan's PMI

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

The renewed trade war is unfortunate timing, as Korea exports are stabilising at the margins. Revised index shows that Korean PPI inflation hasn't been missing this year.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 22 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's adjusted trade balance will remain in the red for now

16 July 2019 Better External Conditions will Support Brazil's Recovery (Publication Centre)

The ramifications of continued disappointing Asian growth, particularly in China, and its impact on global manufacturing, are especially hard-felt in LatAm.

23 January 2018 China's Demand for Foreign Goods Slows as Output Curbs Loosened? (Publication Centre)

Korean 20-day exports are volatile and often miss the mark with respect to the full-month print. But these data offer the month's first look at Asian trade, and we often find value in these early signs.

7 February 2018 The EZ Economy Should be Resilient to Rising Market Volatility (Publication Centre)

As we go to press, equities in the Eurozone are having a bad day following the collapse in U.S. and Asian equities earlier.

Freya Beamish

Freya Beamish produces the Asia service at Pantheon. She has several years of experience in covering the global economy, with a particular focus on China, Japan and Korea. Previously, she worked at Lombard Street Research (now TS Lombard), where she delivered research on Asia and the Global economy for over five years, latterly as the manager of the Macroeconomics group.

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