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1113 matches for " Unemployment":

22 June. 2015 Why is the Fed so Cautious About the Trajectory of Unemployment? (Publication Centre)

The closer we look at the Fed's new forecasts, the stranger they seem. The FOMC cut its GDP estimate for this year and now expects the economy to grow by 1.9%--the mid-point of its forecast range--in the year to the fourth quarter. Growth is then expected to pick up to 2.6% next year, before slowing a bit to 2.3% in 2017. Unemployment, however, is expected to fall much less quickly than in the recent past.

EZ Datanote Unemployment, Germany, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Unemployment is still rising, but the pace of increase is falling sharply.

13 December 2017 Will the Fed Forecast Sub-4% Unemployment Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Today's rate hike will be accompanied by a new round of Fed forecasts, which will have to reflect the faster growth and lower unemployment than expected back in September.

31 October 2018 Japan's Unemployment Rate is Likely to Tick up Again in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The Japanese unemployment rate fell again in September, to 2.3% from 2.4%. In the same vein, the job-to-applicant ratio rose to 1.64, from 1.63.

5 June 2017 The Real Story of High Youth Unemployment in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Youth unemployment remains a blemish on the Eurozone economy, despite an increasingly resilient cyclical recovery. The unemployment rate for young workers aged 15-to-24 years stood at 18.4% at the end of April, chiefly due to high joblessness in the periphery.

28 August. 2015 August Payrolls Will Support Fed Inaction - Unemployment Won't (Publication Centre)

We argued yesterday that the August payroll number is unlikely to be a blockbuster, thanks to a combination of problems with the birth/death model and the strong tendency for this month's jobs number to be initially under-reported and then revised substantially higher. But these arguments don't apply to the unemployment rate, which is derived from the separate household survey.

19 November 2018 Unemployment in Korea will Remain High, Despite Moon's New Team (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate fell for a second straight month in October, inching down to 3.9%, from 4.0% in September.

30 March 2017 Can Unemployment Fall to 4% or Less? What Would the Fed do? (Publication Centre)

The unemployment rate hit its post-1970 low in April 2000, at the peak of the first internet boom, when it nudged down to just 3.8%. The low in the next cycle, first reached in October 2006, was rather higher, at 4.4%.

29 November 2017 Unemployment in Mexico Keeps Falling, but Risks Have Increased (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's October labour market data in Mexico showed that the adjusted unemployment rate rose a bit to 3.4%, from 3.3% in September.

16 February 2018 French Unemployment Plunged in Q4, and will Fall Further this (Publication Centre)

The French labour market improved much more than we expected in Q4. The headline unemployment rate plunged to 8.9%, from a downwardly-revised 9.6% in Q3.

15 June 2020 Korea's Unemployment Rate will Surpass the Financial Crisis Peak (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate rose faster than expected in May, jumping to 4.5%, from 3.8% in April. We've been arguing for some time that the delayed impact of the economic growth slowdown from late- 2017 to early-2019 would eventually push the jobless rate to the mid-4% level this year; the sudden stop caused by Covid-19 merely sped up this process.

15 August 2018 Supply Constraints Still aren't Biting, Despite Low Unemployment (Publication Centre)

The stand-out development in yesterday's labour market report was the drop in the he adline, three-month average, unemployment rate to just 4.0% in June--its lowest rate since February 1975--from 4.2% in May.

2 Sept. 2015 Slow, but Persistent, Decline in EZ Unemployment Continues (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's surprising decline in the Eurozone unemployment rate adds further evidence to the story of a slowly healing economy. The rate of joblessness fell to 10.9% in July from 11.1% in June, the lowest since the beginning of 2012, mainly driven by a 0.5 percentage point fall in Italy, and improvement in Spain, where unemployment fell 0.2 pp to 22.2%.

14 May 2020 Korea's Stable Unemployment Rate Belies the Ongoing Virus Hit to Jobs (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate was unchanged in April, at 3.8%, beating even our below-consensus forecast for only a minor uptick, to 3.9%.

2 Mar 2020 Cyclical Improvement in Brazil's Unemployment, but Threats Rising (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that the downward trend in Brazil's unemployment continued into this year. The unadjusted unemployment rate fell to 11.2% in January, slightly below the consensus, and down from 12.0% in January last year.

4 January 2018 Unemployment in Germany is Close to Nairu. Will Wages Rise? (Publication Centre)

The labour market in Germany tightened further at the end of last year. The headline unemployment rate--unemployment claims as a share of the labour force--fell to 5.5% in December, from 5.6% in November, driven by a 29K plunge in claims.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: German unemployment is now rising; about that fiscal stimulus?

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A collapsing participation rate prevents a sharper deterioration in unemployment.

9 Nov. 2015 The Unemployment Rate Is the Key Measure of Labour Market Slack (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee continues to assert that it can leave interest rates at rock-bottom levels, even though the unemployment rate has returned to its pre-recession level, because it understates the extent of slack in the labour market. If that hypothesis were correct, however, the relationship between the unemployment rate and wage growth would have weakened. But this clearly has not happened, as our first chart shows.

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment and Unemployment, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: A further rise in sentiment and falling unemployment; not bad.

02 Mar. 2016 Are Falling German Unemployment Claims too Good to be True? (Publication Centre)

Unemployment in the Eurozone fell to a 22-month low of 10.3% in January, from 10.4% in December, helped by a continued fall in Spain but underpinned by low unemployment in Germany.

03 Feb. 2016 Cyclical Optimism, but Structural Pessimism, on EZ Unemployment (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that the downward trend in Eurozone unemployment continued towards the end of last year. The unemployment rate fell to 10.4% in December from 10.5% in November, extending an almost uninterrupted decline which began in the first quarter of 2013.

8 May 2017 Fed Hawks Will Focus More on Unemployment than Wage Gains (Publication Centre)

At their March meeting FOMC members' range of forecasts for the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of this year ranged from 4.4% to 4.7%, with a median of 4.5%. But Friday's report showed that the unemployment rate hit the bottom of the forecast range in April.

7 Oct 2019 Payrolls Gains will Slow Further Unemployment will Start to Rise (Publication Centre)

The two big surprises in the September employment report--the drop in the unemployment rate and the flat hourly earnings number--were inconsequential, when set against the sharp and clear slowdown in payroll growth, which has further to run.

10 July 2017 Jobs Gains to Push Unemployment Below 4%, the Fed will Hike Further (Publication Centre)

The gratifyingly strong 222K headline June payroll gain, if repeated through the second half of the year, will put unemployment below 4% by December.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Unemployment nudges higher in Q3.

Reuters - Rising UK unemployment pressures Sunak to renew job support (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist on U.K. Unemployment Q2

CNBC - Total of those receiving unemployment benefits falls below 20 million (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Unemployment

BBC News - Coronavirus: Record number of Americans file for unemployment (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on today's U.S. Unemployment data

5 June 2020. Upside Risk to Payrolls Today, Downside for Unemployment, AHE (Publication Centre)

We set out the reasoning behind the big upward revision to our payroll forecast yesterday, in the wake of the much better-than-expected ADP report.

6 May 2019 Payrolls Can't Sustain April's Pace, but Unemployment will Keep Falling (Publication Centre)

It would be astonishing if the May and June payroll numbers looked much like April's strong data, at least in the private sector.

7 December 2017 Job Gains Easily Strong Enough to Push Unemployment Down Further (Publication Centre)

We were a bit disappointed by the November ADP employment report, though a 190K reading in the 102nd month of a cyclical expansion is hardly a disaster.

5 Mar. 2015 Stronger Fed Growth Forecasts Mean Even Lower Unemployment (Publication Centre)

In the wake of last week's downward revision to fourth quarter GDP growth, productivity will be revised down too. We expect the initial estimate, -1.8%, to be revised down to -2.4%, a startling reversal after robust gains in the second and third quarters.

9 March 2018 Payrolls Likely Strong Again, All Eyes on Unemployment and Wages (Publication Centre)

We'd be quite surprised if the headline payroll number today turned out to be far from the consensus, 205K, or our forecast, 225K.

EZ Datanote EZ Manufacturing PMIs and German unemployment 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rebound in manufacturing confirmed; is the worst over in Germany's labour market?

EZ Datanote Unemployment, Eurozone, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still all noise, no signal.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation and Unemployment, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Core inflation is flirting with a break into a new, and higher, range.

EZ Datanote Advance Inflation and Unemployment, Eurozone 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A dovish setup ahead of next week's ECB meeting, as promised.

9 Mar. 2015 Surging Job Gains, and Sub-Nairu Unemployment to Force June Hike (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the February employment report, the implied probability of a June rate hike, measured by the fed funds future, jumped to 89% from 71%. The market now shows the chance of a funds rate at 75bp by the end of the year at just over 60%. That still looks low to us, but it is a big change and we very much doubt it represents the end of the shift in expectations.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation and Unemployment, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft CPI data, but temporary distortions are depressing the core.

8 Dec. 2014 - Falling Unemployment Will Trigger Tightening: Payrolls Will Soar (Publication Centre)

The first thing to ask after a payroll number far from consensus is whether it is supported by other evidence. We are happy to argue that November's blockbuster report is indeed consistent with a range of other numbers, notwithstanding the unfortunate truth that there are no reliable indicators of payrolls on a month-to-month basis.

22 Jan 2020 Decent Consumption Can't Stop Mexican Unemployment Rising (Publication Centre)

High interest rates and inflation, coupled with increasing uncertainty, put Mexican consumption under strain last year.

11 July 2017 Unemployment Likely Fell Again in May, Despite the Slowing Economy (Publication Centre)

May's labour market figures, released on Wednesday, likely will have something for both the doves and the hawks on the MPC , who have been wrangling over whether to reverse last year's rate cut.

11 Nov 2020 Unemployment Will Peak at a Lower Rate than After the Last Recession (Publication Centre)

The labour market has continued to hold up better than we and most other forecasters feared at the start of the pandemic.

11 October. 2016 Unemployment has Stopped Falling, For Now (Publication Centre)

The single most startling development in the labor market data in recent months is acceleration in labor force growth. The participation rate has risen only marginally, because employment has continued to climb too, but the absolute size of the labor force is now expanding at its fastest pace in nine years, up 1.9% in the year to September.

10 October 2017 New Lows for Unemployment will Stiffen Fed Hawks' Resolve (Publication Centre)

Neither the 33K drop in September payrolls nor the 0.5% jump in hourly earnings tells us anything about the underlying state of the labor market.

10 Aug 2020 June Data to Mark the Start of the Surge in Unemployment (Publication Centre)

This week's labour market data likely will show that the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme did not prevent a rising tide of redundancies in response to Covid-19.

1 Dec. 2014 Fed Set to Respond As Unemployment Hits Nairu (Publication Centre)

It has become fashionable to argue that the combination of favorable yield differentials and abundant global liquidity, courtesy of the BoJ and the ECB, will keep Treasury yields very low for the foreseeable future; the 10-year could even establish itself below 2%.

10 April 2017 Falling Unemployment Matters More than the Weather-hit Jobs Number (Publication Centre)

The BLS offered no estimate of the impact on payrolls of the snowstorm which hit the Northeast during the March survey week, but it appears to have been substantial. All the leading indicators pointed to a solid 200K-plus reading, more than double the official initial estimate, 98K.

12 Jan. 2015 - Unemployment Plunging Towards the Nairu - What Will the Fed Do? (Publication Centre)

The strength in payrolls in recent months is real. The three-month moving average increase in private payrolls now stands at 280K, despite adverse seasonal adjustments totalling 91K in the fourth quarter, compared to the same period last year.

17 July 2020 Unemployment Still Set to Exceed Its Peak After the Last Recession Soon (Publication Centre)

The Labour Force Survey continues to understate massively the damage caused by Covid-19.

3 Apr 2020 Unemployment Is Soaring, How Far Will it Rise? (Publication Centre)

The limited data available on the state of the labour market, since the government forced businesses to close two weeks ago, paint a disconcerting picture.

3 July 2020 BanRep Slows the Pace of Rate Cuts, Despite Record High Unemployment (Publication Centre)

Data released over the last few weeks have confirmed that Colombia's economic performance in Q2 was grim, adding weight to our below-consensus GDP forecast.

30 July 2018 Mexican Data are Upbeat, Strong Retail Sales and Low Unemployment (Publication Centre)

Economic data in Mexico continue to come in strong.

23 Oct 2020 Reforms to the Job Support Scheme will Keep a Lid on Unemployment (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor's alterations to the Job Support Scheme--JSS--yesterday were substantial enough to reduce meaningfully the scale of job losses ahead.

23 January 2019 Unemployment in Mexico Ended Q4 Badly Uncertainty is Biting (Publication Centre)

We expect the Mexican economy to continue growing close to 2% year-over-year in 2019, driven mainly by consumption, but constrained by weak investment, due to prolonged uncertainty related to trade.

2 Dec 2019 Further Increase in Japanese Unemployment in Store (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate was unchanged, at 2.4% in October, as the market took a breather after September's job losses.

23 January 2018 Unemployment in Mexico Close to Cyclical Lows, Despite Rising Risks (Publication Centre)

High inflation and interest rates, coupled with increasing uncertainty, both economic and political, put Mexican consumption under strain last year.

5 January 2018 Robust December Jobs, Strong AHE and a New Low for Unemployment? (Publication Centre)

In the wake of yesterday's ADP report, which showed private payrolls up 250K in December, we have revised our forecast for today's official headline number up to 240K from 210K.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A solid rebound in retail sales, but industrial output remains a drag on growth.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Struggling, but the second half of the year will be better.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weak, but the full hit will come in April.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest upturn is underway, but the overall picture remains bleak.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim, due to Covid-19, but a modest recovery likely will emerge in Q3.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Political uncertainty will weigh on the economy in Q4.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft industrial data, and external conditions for EM economies are becoming increasingly challenging

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Early signs of stabilisation, but the rebound remains fragile.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Good industrial production numbers; the labour market is still struggling.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: A marginal improvement in manufacturing, offset by poor mining activity.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest deterioration of the labour market but the real pain is around the corner.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: The slow recovery of the Brazilian labor market continues.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: The gradual recovery of the labour market continues.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment Rate, Mexico, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: The labor market is gradually deteriorating.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment Rate, Mexico, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: A substantial improvement, but not in line with fundamentals.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment Rate, Mexico, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: A substantial improvement, but it's temporary; a sharp jump is looming.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: The labour market will deteriorate soon.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: An expected rebound in the jobless rate, despite plunging participation

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: A solid end to 2019 for Brazil's labour market.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: The improvement continues.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The deterioration of the labour market continued in early Q3.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index and Unemployment, Mexico, January and February (Publication Centre)

In one line: A poor start to 2020 for Mexico, even before Covid-19.

Global Datanote: Inflation and Unemployment, Eurozone February 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: All is calm in these data, for now.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Now clearly rising, but it remains distorted by furlough schemes.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Fantastic, but also ancient news.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Excellent, but clouds are gathering in some countries.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: The positive trend is petering out.

EZ Datanote: Inflation and Unemployment, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

All is calm in these data, for now.

EZ Datanote: GDP, Unemployment and Inflation, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: As bad as during the financial crisis, and this is just the beginning.

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs and German Unemployment May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The EZ economy is slowly rebounding; has the rate of increase in German jobless claims peaked?

EZ Datanote: GDP, Inflation, and Unemployment - Eurozone 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Very solid rebound in GDP, but risks are tilted to the downside for Q4.

EZ Datanote: GDP, Unemployment and Inflation, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mixed, but overall further evidence of stabilisation.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Bad, but it would have been disastrous without Kurzarbeit.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back to reality.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but the trend in claims is probably still rising.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, October 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Is Germany's labour market virus proof?

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: What epidemic?

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation & Unemployment, Eurozone, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A dovish setup ahead of next week's ECB meeting, as promised.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Yikes! Jump in claims is partly a statistical quirk, but the trend is turning for the worse.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Germany is not the U.S.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surprisingly resilient.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stationary, rather than in outright decline.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mean-reversion from last month, but claims likely are now rising a bit.

EZ Datanote: Consumers' Spending in France, Saxony CPI, and German Unemployment (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust spending in France through Q3; the German labour market is rolling over.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Improvement continued through February, but the labour market will deteriorate soon.

2 July 2020 First V-Shaped Rebound Spotted in the Wild, in German Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

One of the key positive signs in the Eurozone data since the virus hit has been the evidence that households' liquid money balances have been well supported by job retention schemes, extended unemployment insurance, and aggressive monetary stimulus.

20 December 2016 Fiscal Easing Likely Would Boost Productivity, but not by Enough (Publication Centre)

The two key planks of the argument that a substantial easing of fiscal policy won't be inflationary are that labor participation will be dragged higher, limiting the decline in the unemployment rate, while productivity growth will rebound, so unit labor costs will remain under control.

20 July. 2016 Job Growth Faded Pre-Referendum, but the Real Hit Lies Ahead (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market data look set to show that the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate held steady at just 5% in May, unchanged from April's reading.

22 Dec. 2015 Low Household Saving Implies Little Upside to Spending Outlook (Publication Centre)

The national accounts for the third quarter, released on Wednesday, are likely to show that households are saving a very small proportion of their incomes. Low unemployment, subdued inflation and the healthier condition of households' balance sheets suggests that very low saving is more sustainable than in the past. Nonetheless, the low rate underlines that household spending can't grow at a faster rate than incomes for a sustained period again.

2 February 2017 March is Alive as the FOMC's Tone Becomes More Direct (Publication Centre)

The FOMC statement did enough to keep alive the idea that rates could rise in March, but the ball is now mostly in Congress' court. If a clear plan for substantial fiscal easing has emerged by the time of the meeting on March 15, policymakers can incorporate its potential impact on growth, unemployment and inflation into their forecasts, then a rate hike will be much more likely.

19 Oct. 2015 Real Wage Gains Signal the True Tightness of the Labor Market (Publication Centre)

Everyone is familiar by now with the conundrum in the labor market: How come wage gains have barely increased over the past few years even as the unemployment rate has fallen to very low levels, and business surveys scream that employers can't find the people they want? To give just one visual example of the scale of the apparent anomaly, our first chart shows the yawning gap between the headline unemployment rate and the rate of growth of hourly earnings, compared to previous cycles.

17 May. Wage Growth to Continue to Rise, Despite Jobs Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The 21K rise in the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate between November and February confirmed last month that the U.K.'s period of fantastically strong growth in employment has ended. Timelier indicators, however, suggest unemployment is stabilising, not on the cusp of a major increase.

19 Aug 2020 An Updated Look at EZ Inflation Expectations, Not Much Going On (Publication Centre)

Recession, rising unemployment and disinflation remain the main themes for economists in the context of charting the course of the Covid-19 crisis.

19 Oct 2020 The Second Wave Brings Korea's Jobs Data Back Down to Earth (Publication Centre)

Korea's labour market ran out of luck in September, with the unemployment rate rebounding back up to 3.9%, after the surprise one-percentage point drop to 3.2% in August.

22 February 2018 Labour Market Wobble Should Instil Some Caution on the MPC (Publication Centre)

The stand-out news yesterday was the increase in the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate to 4.4% in December, from 4.3% in September.

22 October 2018 Does the Opioid Crisis Explain the Flat Labor Participation Rate (Publication Centre)

The failure of labor market participation to increase as the economy has gathered pace, pushing unemployment down from its 10.0% peak to just 3.7%in September, is one of the biggest macro mysteries in recent years.

28 March 2018 Japan's Labour Market to Continue Tightening this Year (Publication Centre)

Data to be released this Friday should show that Japan's labour market remains tight, though the unemployment rate likely ticked back up in February, to 2.6%, after the erratic drop to 2.4% in January.

29 Apr 2020 Japan's Exposed Workers Feel the First Blow from Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

Japan's unemployment rate merely edged up to 2.5% in March, from February's 2.4% rate. It probably will end the year around one percentage point higher, though, with the pain extending through the second half.

29 Jan. 2016 Data and Copom Minutes Point to no Change in Brazilian Rates (Publication Centre)

Another month, another bleak Brazilian labor market report. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased marginally to 8.3% in December, up from 8.2% in November, much worse than the 5.1% recorded in December 2014.

28 Apr 2020 Buckle up for the first Covid-19 hit to the EZ Hard Economic Data (Publication Centre)

This week's data will offer the first clear hard evidence of the Covid-19 shock to the EZ economy. Thursday's calendar is the main event, with advance Q1 GDP data, March EZ unemployment numbers, and the April CPI report.

27 Mar 2020 Jobless Claims Crystallize the Covid Disaster, More Pain to Come (Publication Centre)

The speculation is over: 3.283 million people filed a new claim for unemployment benefits last week, nearly double the 1.7M consensus forecast, which looked much too low.

23 June 2017 Fed Officials Cite "Full Employment" but Worry About Recent CPI Data (Publication Centre)

A couple of Fed speakers this week have described the economy as being at "full employment". Looking at the headline unemployment rate, it's easy to see why they would reach that conclusion.

23 Oct 2020 Mexico's Labour Market is Stabilizing, Inflation Remains Sticky, for Now (Publication Centre)

Mexico's unemployment report, released on Wednesday, confirmed that the labour market is finally on the mend, though the details highlighted that there is a long way to recover the 4.6M jobs lost since February.

26 June 2017 Markets are Telling Themselves a Story, Shame it's a Fairytale (Publication Centre)

The core economic narrative in U.S. markets right now seems to run something like this: The pace of growth slowed in Q1, depressing the rate of payroll growth in the spring. As a result, the headline plunge in the unemployment rate is unlikely to persist and, even if it does, the wage pressures aren't a threat to the inflation outlook.

17 June. 2015 Brazilian Retailers Face Tough Times As Consumers Tighten Belts (Publication Centre)

Consumption remains a serious weak spot in Brazil's economic cycle. High inflation, rising interest rates, surging unemployment, plunging confidence, and the government's belt tightening, have trashed Brazilians' purchasing power. Retail sales surprised to the downside in April, falling 0.4% month-to-month, equivalent to a huge 3.5% contraction year-over-year, down from a revised 0.3% gain in March. The underlying trend is awful, as our first chart shows.

17 August. 2016 Job Vacancy Data to Give Early Steer on Recession Odds (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market figures will provide the first "hard data" showing how the economy has fared since the referendum. The headline employment and unemployment numbers will refer to the three months ending June, but data for July will be published on the number of people claiming unemployment benefit and the level of job vacancies.

11 Feb. 2015 Soaring Job Openings Suggest Super-Easy Money is Now Risky (Publication Centre)

Back in April 2012, Janet Yellen--then Fed Vice-Chair--spoke in detail about the labor market and monetary policy. The key point of her labor market analysis was that it was impossible to know for sure how much of the increase in unemployment--at the time, the headline rate was 8.2%--was structural, and how much was cyclical.

11 Sept 2019 The Labour Market no Longer Looks Bulletproof (Publication Centre)

A cursory glance at July's labour market report gives no cause for alarm. The headline, three-month average, unemployment rate returned to 3.8% in July, after edging up to 3.9% in June.

11 Sept 2020 Korea's August Jobs Surprise was all Luck, Look for a Second Wave Hit (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate plunged unexpectedly in August, to 3.2%--the lowest in a year--from 4.2% in July, defying expectations for no change and the renewed pressure on the economy from the second wave of Covid-19.

10 Sept 2020 Initial Claims are Falling, but the Bigger Picture is Still Disconcerting (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to see another dip in initial claims for regular state unemployment benefits today, to about 850K, but that's only part of the story.

1 February 2017 The EZ Economy Finished 2016 Strongly, and Q1 Outlook is Solid (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a good day for headline EZ economic data. GDP growth accelerated, inflation rose and unemployment fell further. Advance Q4 data showed that real GDP in the Eurozone rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, marginally faster than the upwardly revised 0.4% in Q3. Full-year growth in 2016 slowed slightly to 1.7% from 2.0% in 2015.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Tankan points to a q/q contraction for capex in Q3, but GDP growth overall will stay strong. Japan's unemployment steady, but details bode ill for Q4. September's full-month data dispel some export worries in Korea; expect a Q3 lift from net trade. Korea's PMI pours cold water on the spectacular jobs report for August. September is as bad as it gets for Korean CPI deflation.

08 Mar. 2016 Can the Spike in Labor Market Participation be Sustained? (Publication Centre)

It's very tempting to look at the upturn in the participation rate in recent months and extrapolate it into a sustained upward trend. If the trend were to rise quickly enough, it conceivably could prevent any further fall in the unemployment rate, preventing it falling below the bottom of the Fed's estimated Nairu range.

1 April 2019 Don't Be Fooled, Japan's Labour Market Won't Tighten Further (Publication Centre)

Japan's unemployment rate returned unexpectedly to its 26-year low of 2.3% in February, falling from 2.5% in January.

12 Nov 2020 Poor Jobs Data Keep a Bank of Korea Rate Cut on the Table (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in October, from 3.9% in September, exactly in line with our out-of-consensus call for a further increase.

13 December. 2016 Today's NFIB Labor Data are not New, but they are Important (Publication Centre)

The falling unemployment rate and the threat it poses to the inflation outlook mean that the labor market numbers in the NFIB small business survey attract more attention than the other data in the report.

16 March 2017 Slowing Wage Gains Support the MPC's Loose Policy Stance (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's labour market data significantly bolster the consensus view on the MPC that interest rates do not need to rise this year to counter the imminent burst of inflation. Granted, the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in January--its lowest rate since August 1975--from 4.8% in December, defying the consensus forecast for no-change.

16 November. 2016 Statistical Quirks Will Flatter September's Jobs Report (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market figures likely will show that the Brexit vote has inflicted only minimal damage on job prospects so far. The unemployment rate likely held steady at 4.9% in the three months to September, and the risk of a renewed fall in unemployment appears to be bigger than for a rise.

16 Oct 2020 Upside Risk for September Sales, but the Q4 Outlook is Deteriorating (Publication Centre)

All the key measures of retail sales have returned to the trends in place before the Covid pandemic, thanks to the enhanced unemployment benefits paid to people who lost their jobs during lockdowns, and the one-time stimulus payments under the CARES Act.

14 March 2019 Korea's Labour Market Data Throw Another Curveball (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate tumbled to 3.7% in February, after the leap to 4.4% in January.

14 March 2018 Services and Construction are Boosting French Employment (Publication Centre)

Unemployment in France remains high, but the trend is turning. The mainland rate of joblessness fell to a five-year low of 8.6% in Q4, and yesterday's employment report continued the good news.

13 July 2017 Don't Extrapolate from May's Uptick in Basic Wage Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's labour market data gave sterling a shot in the arm on t wo counts. First, the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate fell to just 4.5% in May, from 4.6% in April.

13 Sept 2019 Korea's Jobs Surprise... the Higher they Rise, the Harder they Fall (Publication Centre)

Korea's jobs report for August was a stonker, with unemployment plunging to 3.1%, from 4.0% in July, marking the lowest rate in more than five years.

14 December 2017 Korea's Public Sector Jobs Drive Fizzles out. BoK to Hike Anyway (Publication Centre)

The Korean unemployment rate edged back up to 3.7% in November from October's 3.6%. Young graduates--the usual suspects--accounted for most of the rise.

29 June. 2015 Mexican Recovery is Stuttering, but Better Days Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy hit a sticky patch in the first quarter, with confidence slipping, employment growth slowing and the downward trend in unemployment stalling. Indeed, the headline unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in May from 4.3% in April. The seasonally adjusted rate, though, was little changed at 4.4%, with a stable participation rate.

10 Sept. 2015 Wage Cuts Pay off as Periphery Leads EZ Employment Higher (Publication Centre)

Workers in the euro area remain scarred by the zone's repeated crises, but the strengthening cyclical recovery is slowly starting to spread to the labour market. The unemployment rate fell to a three-year low of 10.9% in July, and employment has edged higher after hitting a low in the middle of 2013. Germany's outperformance is a key story, with employment increasing uninterruptedly since 2009, and the unemployment rate declining to an all-time low of 6.4%. Among the other major economies, the unemployment rate in Spain and Italy remains higher than in France. But employment in Spain has outperformed in the cyclical recovery since 2013.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese manufacturing powers through Beijing's partial lockdown. The hot construction sector in China took a small breather in June. Unemployment in Japan is on track to breach the 3% mark for the first time since 2017. No immediate relief for Japanese industry from the withdrawal of the state of emergency. There is light at the end of the tunnel for the downturn in Korean industry.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Focus on Japan's job-to-applicant ratio, not the unemployment rate

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 October 2020 (Publication Centre)

Don't take any comfort from the holding pattern in Japan's unemployment rate, The BoJ is gradually easing off on JGB purchases, with the 10-year above zero

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Punchy output gains from China's manufacturers will soon give way. A mixed bag for China's non-manufacturing sectors at the start of Q3. Don't be fooled by the June slip in Japan's unemployment rate. Expect only a mild recovery in Japanese industrial production, for now. Korean production ended Q2 on a strong note.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Consensus-beating March PMI merely underscores how bad February was... the economy isn't out of the woods. The non-manufacturing bounce was broad-based, but construction led the way. Japan's job openings plunge shows the direction of travel for unemployment. Japan's retail sales suggest Q1 pain to be concentrated in March. Japan inc granted a last month of reprieve before the Covid-19 storm hits. Korean carmakers' sourcing woes largely to blame for February hit.

8 Sept 2020 Private Payrolls Slowing, September Likely to be Weaker than August (Publication Centre)

The tiny headline consensus beat in the August payrolls numbers is nothing to get excited about, and neither is the unexpected drop in the headline unemployment rate.

9 Sept. 2015 Ignore Swings in Random Labor Force Data: Focus on Job Gains (Publication Centre)

We read after the employment report that the drop in the unemployment rate was somehow not significant, because it was due in p art to a reported 41K drop in the size of the labor force, completing a 404K cumulative contraction over the three months to August. In our view, though, analysts need to take a broader approach to the picture painted by the household survey, which is much more volatile and less reliable than the payroll survey over short periods.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI was poised for major disappointment... the trade war impact is clear. Don't be fooled by the relative stability of China's non-manufacturing PMI. Japan's March unemployment uptick was early; April was payback. Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's industrial production ticks up after extreme weakness; don't hold your breath for the recovery. Japan's consumers in poor shape, but maybe it's not that bad. The upswing in Korean industrial production likely to take a breather this month. The BoK holds firm, despite rising calls for a rate cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Don't expect the BoK to follow the BoJ's unorthodoxy in the foreseeable future. The upward correction in Korean unemployment has much more room to run.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Our caution over China's March industrial production spike was justified. Chinese retail sales growth hits lows. Chinese FAI growth suggests private sector policy loosening isn't working. Japan's M2 growth upturn is a welcome break, but needs to be sustained. Korean unemployment jumps in April, showing the limits of the government's hiring spree.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Big gains in the size of the labour force continue to flatter Korea's unemployment rate. Japan's exit from PPI deflation will be followed by only modest inflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

China still is on track for mild CPI deflation by Q4, PPI deflation in China has bottomed out , Core machine orders in Japan tank in the wake of the state of emergency, Adverse base effects from last year's tax hike will delay Japan's exit from PPI deflation, Surprise spike in Korea's unemployment rate makes sense given the plunge in jobs created

ASIAN DATA WRAP 10 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Expect Chinese PPI deflation in the second half. China's CPI inflation faces non-core cross currents; services inflation still slowing. Unemployment in Korea held steady in June; the BoK will be chuffed about improving job growth. PPI deflation in Japan will persist until the end of the year.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

August plunge in Korean unemployment is unsustainable, but should effectively rule out another BoK cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Surprise stability in Korea's unemployment rate won't last. Risks to Japan's current account surplus are weighted to the downside

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Job losses in the over-60 group pull Korea's unemployment rate higher in December. Japanese M2 growth holds steady in December. Still no clear signs of a recovery in machine tool orders in Japan.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Evidence continues to build that Korea's August unemployment plunge was a fluke. October sales tax hike in Japan opens the door for a quicker exit from PPI deflation.

7 November. 2016 Wage Gains Will Focus Fed Minds (Publication Centre)

If the Fed needed further encouragement to raise rates next month, it arrived Friday in the form of solid jobs numbers, a new cycle low for the broad unemployment rate, and a new cycle high for wage growth.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ snubs the doves. Japan's unemployment rate downtick was minimal. The weak external backdrop dominates Japan's pre-tax front-loading industrial activity.

5 July. 2016 Can We be Sure The Labor Market is Tight Enough to Boost Wage Gains? (Publication Centre)

We have argued consistently for some time that the next year will bring a clear acceleration in U.S. wage growth, because the unemployment rate has fallen below the Nairu and a host of business survey indicators point to clear upward wage pressures. Nominal wage growth has been constrained, in our view, by the unexpected decline in core inflation from 2012 through early 2015, which boosted real wage growth and, hence, eased the pressure from employees for bigger nominal raises.

31 July 2017 How Tight Can Japan's Labour Market go? (Publication Centre)

The jobless rate fell back to 2.8% in June after the surprise rise to 3.1% in May. This drop takes us back to where we were in April before voluntary unemployment jumped in May.

3 Sep 2020 Japan's Labour Market isn't Bulletproof, More Pain is Coming (Publication Centre)

Japan's unemployment rate has been remarkably steady over the past few months.

31 Aug 2020 Q3 Consumption will Rocket, but Benefit Expiration Hit is Uncertain (Publication Centre)

We have revised up our third quarter GDP forecast to 25% from 15%, in the wake of last week's data. Consumers' spending is on course to rise by 36.6% if July's level of spending is maintained, though we're assuming a smaller 33% increase, on the grounds that the expiration of the enhanced unemployment benefits on July 31 will trigger a dip in spending for a time.

5 November 2018 The Labour Market in the Andes is Struggling, Can it Improve in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Chile's unadjusted unemployment rate fell to 7.1% in July-to-September, from 7.3% in June-to-August, but it was up from 6.7% in September last year.

5 September. 2016 Wanted: A New Monetary Policy Target for the ECB (Publication Centre)

In principle, predicting the interest rate policies of an inflation-targeting central bank should be simple. Our first chart shows a standard Taylor Rule rate for the Eurozone based on the ECB's inflation target of 2%, the long-run average unemployment rate and a long run "equilibrium interest rate" of 1.5%. This framework historically has been a decent guide to ECB policy.

3 April 2018 Japan's Labour Market Tightness will Surprise the BoJ (Publication Centre)

Japan's unemployment rate edged back up to 2.5% in February after the drop in January to 2.4%.

31 Jan 2020 The Wage Growth Gap Persists: No Sign Yet of a Labor Scarcity Premium (Publication Centre)

It's a myth that the 10-ye ar decline in the unemployment rate has not driven up the pace of wage growth.

5 December. 2016 Labor Market Tightening Continues (Publication Centre)

We're pretty sure that the unemployment rate didn't drop by 0.3 percentage points in November. We're pretty sure hourly earnings didn't fall by 0.1%. And we're pretty sure payrolls didn't rise by 178K. All the employment data are unreliable month-to-month, with the wages numbers particularly susceptible to technical quirks.

19 April 2018 Unemployment Will Soon Fall Again, Demand is Rising Faster than Supply (Publication Centre)

The unemployment rate has now been at 4.1% for six straight months. This does not mean, though, that it's safe to assume it will remain there, or indeed that this level of unemployment can be sustained without eventually triggering a meaningful increase in inflation.

2 Dec. 2015 Plunging German Unemployment Will Challenge the ECB Next Year (Publication Centre)

The labour market in the Eurozone continues slowly to improve. The unemployment rate fell to 10.7% in October from 10.8% in September, reaching its lowest level since 2013. The divergence in rates, however, between the major economies remains significant. Unemployment in France, Italy and Spain is still above 10%, but the advance German number continued their record-breaking form in November.

Financial Times - Economists react as eurozone unemployment hits fresh post-crisis low (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone unemployment

Politico - 'No words for this': 10 million workers file jobless claims in just two weeks (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the record-breaking number of U.S. Unemployment Claims this week

Question of the Week, WC 28th Oct (Media Centre)

What do the protests mean for Chile's economy?

NEW YORK TIMES - U.S. Economy Added 271,000 Jobs in October - Unemployment Rate at 5% (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on today's Payroll report

NEW YORK TIMES - U.S. Economy Added 257,000 Jobs in January - Unemployment Rate at 5.7% (Media Centre)

The economic momentum evident late last year carried into 2015, the Labor Department said Friday, with American employers adding 257,000 jobs in January as wage growth rebounded and more people joined the workforce

Financial Times - UK manufacturing down to lowest capacity utilisation rate on record (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Unemployment

28 June. 2016 The Case for Stronger U.S. Economic Growth is Still Robust (Publication Centre)

Difficult though it is to tear ourselves away from Britain's political and economic train-wreck, morbid fascination is no substitute for economic analysis. The key point here is that our case for stronger growth in the U.S. over the next year is not much changed by events in Europe.

28 June 2019 Consumers' Confidence Still Points to Steady Growth in Spending (Publication Centre)

The latest E.C. survey shows the gap between firms' and households' confidence levels has remained substantial.

27 November 2017 Economic Growth Set to Rise Next Year, but Pain Will Follow in 2019 (Publication Centre)

We have argued for some time that the revival in nonoil capex represents clear upside risk for GDP growth next year, but it's now time to make this our base case.

28 June. 2016 Will Higher Inflation Keep Further Monetary Easing at Bay? (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor indicated yesterday that the current fiscal plans--which set out a 1% of GDP reduction in the structural budget deficit this year--will remain in place until a new Prime Minister is chosen by September 2. So for now, the burden of leaning against the imminent downturn is on the MPC's shoulders.

28 March 2019 China Profits will Bounce Back in March Proper Recovery is Coming (Publication Centre)

China's industrial profits tanked in January/ February, falling 14.0% year-to-date year-over-year, after a 1.9% drop year-over-year in December.

28 June 2019 Banxico Dials Down its Hawkish Rhetoric, it Will Have to Ease Soon (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers voted to leave the main rate on hold at 8.25% yesterday, as inflation remains high--though falling--and the economy is stuttering.

28 June 2018 How will the Chinese Authorities Respond as Pro ts Growth Slows (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits growth is closely watched by the Chinese authorities, even more so now that deleveraging is a prime policy aim.

28 January 2019 Policy and Markets Will Slow the Economy, but not Much (Publication Centre)

The end of the government shutdown--for three weeks, at least-- means that the data backlog will start to clear this week.

28 Jan. 2016 FOMC is Focussed on the Labor Market - Global Events Matter Less (Publication Centre)

The FOMC flagged recent market developments as a source of risk to the U.S. economy yesterday, unsurprisingly, but didn't go overboard: "The Committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook."

28 July 2020 Congressional Face-Off Could Delay the Next Relief Bill Until September (Publication Centre)

House Democrats and Senate Republicans are so far apart on both the structure and the size of the next Coronavirus relief package that it's hard to see a bill passing Congress in less than a couple weeks or so, and it could easily take longer.

28 July 2020 Mexico's Volatile Trade Balance, Consequences of Chile's Reform (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Mexico highlighted the volatility in international trade resulting from the pandemic.

28 May 2020 Downward Pressure on Wages will Hold Down Inflation (Publication Centre)

Beyond the immediate wild swings in prices for food, clothing, hotel rooms and airline fares, the medium-term impact of the Covid outbreak on U.S. inflation will depend substantially on the impact on the pace of wage growth.

28 June 2018 Real M1 Still Points to Slower GDP Growth, Despite a Rebound in May (Publication Centre)

Money supply growth in the Eurozone rebounded slightly last month, reversing some of the weakness at the start of the year.

28 May 2020 The Commission's Recovery Fund Could be a Game-Changer (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's big news in the Eurozone was the EU Commission's proposed recovery fund.

28 Oct 2020 Upside Risks to Q3 GDP Data This Week, but Anything can Happen (Publication Centre)

This EZ calendar is extremely busy over the next few days, so we'll use this Monitor to preview the key numbers, before turning our focus on the ECB in tomorrow's report.

28 Oct 2019 The Trade Deficit Looks Set to Explode in Q4, it's not Just Boeing (Publication Centre)

Recent export performance has been poor, but the export orders index in the ISM manufacturing survey-- the most reliable short-term leading indicator--strongly suggests that it will be terrible in the fourth quarter.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next (Publication Centre)

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices don't measure the same thing in the same way, never agree with each other, and often contradict themselves from month-to-month.

28 September 2016 No Scope For Complacency on Inflation as Import Prices Rise (Publication Centre)

Our forecast that CPI inflation will shoot up to about 3% in the second half of 2017, from 0.6% last month, assumes that pass-through from the exchange rate to consumer goods prices will be as swift and complete as in the past. Our first chart shows that this relationship has held firm recently, with core goods prices falling at the rate implied by sterling's appreciation in 2014 and 2015.

28 September 2017 A Slowdown in Unsecured Lending will Hurt More than the Bank Thinks (Publication Centre)

The risk posed by consumer borrowing was once again the focus of the Financial Policy Committee's discussion last week.

28 Oct 2019 Germany is in Recession, When Will the Recovery Begin? (Publication Centre)

Survey data in Germany showed few signs of picking up from their depressed level at the start of Q4.

28 Oct 2019 Fernández Likely Won Argentina's Presidency, Brace for the Worst (Publication Centre)

Recent polls in Argentina suggest that Alberto Fernández, from the opposition platform Frente de Todos, has comfortably beaten Mauricio Macri, to become Argentina's president.

28 Nov 2019 Spare a Thank You for the Strong and Stable French Consumer (Publication Centre)

French consumers remained in great spirits midway through the fourth quarter. The headline INSEE consumer confidence index jumped to a 28-month high in November, from 104 in October, extending its v-shaped recovery from last year's plunge on the back of the yellow vest protests.

28 May 2020 Unconventional Activity Indicators Still Recovering, Across the Board (Publication Centre)

Unconventional indicators of economic activity suggest that the recovery from the Covid-19 shock is gathering momentum.

28 November 2018 Is Mr Macron About to Lose to the Street Like his Predecessors (Publication Centre)

Our hopes that tax cuts and lower energy inflation would lift French household consumption in Q4 were badly dented by yesterday's consumer sentiment report.

28 November. 2016 Household Consumption in France Will Recover Lost Ground in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The outlook for French consumers' spending improved this month, at the margin. The headline consumer sentiment index was unchanged at 98 in November, but most forward-looking indicators rose. Consumers' spending in was flat in Q2 and Q3, following a 1.1% jump in the first quarter.

28 Oct 2019 China's Q3 GDP was Dire, Official Headlines Don't Tell the Half of it (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth slowed to 6.0% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2 and 6.4% in Q1. Consecutive 0.2 percentage points declines are significant in China.

27 November 2018 Do Q3's Healthy Sales Data Signal Further Strength in Mexico (Publication Centre)

Improving fundamentals have supported private spending in Mexico during the current cycle.

27 June 2019 Are Rising Jobless Claims a Drag on German Consumer Sentiment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer sentiment data provided further evidence of a strengthening French economy, amid signs of cracks in the otherwise solid German economy.

28 February 2019 A Dovish Money Supply Report Ahead of the March ECB Meeting (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's January EZ money supply data offered support for investors betting on a further dovish shift by the ECB at next month's meeting.

28 Feb 2020 Upside Risk for Mexican Retail Sales, but Total Consumption is What Matters (Publication Centre)

Retail sales in Mexico fell in Q4, but we think households' spending will continue to contribute to GDP growth in the first quarter, at the margin.

28 September 2017 All Systems Go for Solid Eurozone GDP Growth in Q3 and Q4 (Publication Centre)

Money supply growth in the Eurozone firmed last month. Broad money--M3--rose 5.0% year-overyear in August, after a tepid 4.5% rise in July.

27 Nov 2019 The Brazilian Real Weakens Further, Despite Improving Fundamentals (Publication Centre)

The BRL remains under severe stress, despite renewed signals of a sustained economic recovery and strengthening expectations that the end of the monetary easing cycle is near.

28 Jan 2020 Containment Measures Could Mean a Quarterly Fall in Chinese GDP (Publication Centre)

As the situation with the coronavirus develops, and we gain more information on the authorities' response, it's becoming clear that the damage to Q1 GDP is going to be nasty.

27 September 2018 Mortgage Lending will Keep Trending Down as Brexit Nears (Publication Centre)

August's mortgage lending data from the trade body U.K. Finance provided more evidence that the pick-up in housing market activity in Q2 simply reflected a shift from Q1 due to the disruptive weather, rather than the emergence of a sustainable upward trend.

28 Feb 2020 The Bank of Korea Hangs Tough, Targeted Measures Only for Now (Publication Centre)

The BoK surprised markets and commentators by keeping rates unchanged at 1.25% yesterday, rather than cutting to 1.0%.

28 Aug 2019 Consumers are Very Happy About the Labor Market: Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

We were happy to see upside surprises from both sides of the domestic economy yesterday, but we doubt that the August readings from both the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey and the Richmond Fed business survey can hold.

27 September. 2016 Jobs Seen as Plentiful, but Payroll Gains Will Remain Low (Publication Centre)

In contrast to surveys of manufacturing activity and sentiment, the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence rose sharply in August, hitting an 11-month high. People were more upbeat about both the current state of the economy and the outlook, with the improving job market key to their optimism. The proportion of respondent believing that jobs are "plentiful" rose to 26%, the highest level in nine years.

28 Aug 2020 The Fed's Focus is Jobs, No Hike Unless Inflation Runs Riot (Publication Centre)

The difficulty with the Fed's shift in strategy, to the pursuit of an average 2% inflation target "over time", is that they don't have the means in the near term to push inflation above the target, in order to offset the long period of sub-2% rates.

28 Aug 2020 The Money Supply Data Remain a Beacon of Light in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were solid.

28 Feb 2020 EZ Money Growth is still a Glimmer of Light amid Market Panic (Publication Centre)

Headline M3 money supply growth in the Eurozone was steady as a rock at around 5% year-over-year between 2014 and the end of 2017.

27 May. 2015 After the Surge - A Positive Trend in EZ Household Consumption? (Publication Centre)

Data today will likely show that consumer sentiment in the Eurozone remains firm. In Germany, we expect a slight dip in the advance headline GFK confidence index to 9.8 in June, from an all-time high of 10.1 in May.

27 Sept 2019 Are the Balance of Risks Shifting for the Better in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Money supply data are sending an increasingly contrarian, and bullish, signal for the euro area economy.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7% second quarter plunge.

27 Oct 2020 Controlling the Virus will Cost EZ Q4 GDP Growth Dearly (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, yesterday's IFO in Germany confirmed the main message from last week's PMIs.

27 November 2018 Japan's Flash PMI Puts a Q4 GDP Rebound into Serious Doubt (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI report for November was abysmal, putting the chances of a recovery this quarter into serious doubt.

27 Mar. 2015 Banxico Still Eyeing a Rate Hike After the Fed Moves in June (Publication Centre)

This week's economic data for the Mexican economy have been encouraging, especially for Banxico, which left its main interest rate unchanged yesterday at 3.0%. Inflation remained on target for the second consecutive month in the first half of February, and the closely-watched IGAE economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--continued to grow at a relatively solid pace, despite the big hit from lower oil prices.

27 Mar 2020 Pre-Virus Q1 Data in Brazil and Mexico Supported More Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus pandemic looks set to spread rapidly throughout LatAm.

28 Jan 2020 Mexican Consumers' Spending Fell in Q4, but Should Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

All the evidence indicates that growth in Mexican consumers' spending is slowing, despite the better- than-expected November retail sales numbers, released yesterday.

27 Oct 2020 Japan is Trying to "Live with Covid", but Spending is Hitting a Ceiling (Publication Centre)

Japan and Korea dealt with their second waves of Covid-19 in the third quarter in completely different ways.

27 May 2020 Japan's April Activity Likely Dropped off a Cliff, How Bad was it (Publication Centre)

Japan's all-industry activity index dropped by 3.8% month-on-month in March, worse than the 0.7% slip in February.

27 May 2020 The Jump in Consumers' Inflation Expectations Doesn't Matter (Publication Centre)

Don't be alarmed by the second straight jump in consumers' inflation expectations, captured by the Conference Board's May survey, reported yesterday.

27 March 2018 Consumers' Spending Constrained by Cashflow, not Confidence (Publication Centre)

Whichever way you choose to slice the numbers, consumers' spending is growing much more slowly than is implied by an array of confidence surveys.

28 Jan 2020 Germany Can't Catch a Break, The IFO Still Signals Very Slow Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO data reversed the good vibes sent by last week's upbeat German PMIs.

27 November 2017 China Instigates Another Friday Reform, Import Tariffs are Cut (Publication Centre)

Since the Party Congress last month, China has made a number of bold moves in multiple policy fields, with a regularity that almost implies the authorities are working through a list.

27 Nov 2019 The German Consumer is Doing Fine, but Risks Loom in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report in the EZ showed that consumer sentiment in Germany improved mid-way through the fourth quarter.

29 Oct 2019 Can we Rely on M1 as a Leading Indicator in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ money supply data confirmed that liquidity conditions in the private sector improved in Q3, despite the dip in the headline.

3 Dec 2019 Chainstore Sales for Thanksgiving Week Usually Look Good, but... (Publication Centre)

The Redbook chainstore sales survey today is likely to give the superficial impression that the peak holiday shopping season got off to a robust start last week.

3 Aug 2020 MPC to Remain Coy on the Negative Rates Question This Week (Publication Centre)

Investors probably are right to expect this week's MPC meeting to lack drama.

3 December 2018 Brazil's Solid Q3 GDP Data Pave the Way for an Upbeat 2019 (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that Brazil's recovery has continued over the second half of the year, supported by steady household consumption and rebounding capex.

3 Mar 2020 A Bad Q1 for LatAm, DM Stimulus will be Only a Temporary Boost (Publication Centre)

It has been a nasty start to the year for LatAm as markets have been hit by renewed volatility in China, triggered by the coronavirus.

3 June 2020 Chile's Economy Collapses in Q2, but Q3 will be Slightly Better (Publication Centre)

Chile's near-term economic outlook is still negative after a sharp resurgence of coronavirus cases.

3 June. 2016 May Payrolls Constrained By Verizon Strike, but Should be OK (Publication Centre)

The downside surprise in April payrolls reflected weakness in just three components--retail, construction, and government--compared to their prior trends. Of these, we think only the construction numbers are likely to remain soft in May. Had it not been for the Verizon strike, then, we would have expected payrolls to rise by just over 200K in May, but the 35K strike hit means our forecast is 170K.

3 Aug 2020 Flat Near-Real-Time Indicators don't Mean Flat Third Quarter GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

The broadly flat trend in the near-real-time indicators of economic activity shows few signs of ending.

3 April 2018 GDP Growth in the Eurozone is Slowing, but Not Collapsing (Publication Centre)

The economic data in the Eurozone were mixed while we were away.

3 Apr 2020 So, When Will EZ Economies Return to Normal Operation (Publication Centre)

Market-based measures of uncertainty and volatility remain elevated, but if we look beyond the headlines, two overall assumptions still inform forecasters' analysis of the economy and Covid-19.

3 Mar 2020 Which Covid-19 Data Matter More, New Cases or Log-Levels (Publication Centre)

Something of a debate appears to be underway in markets over the "correct" way to look at the coronavirus data.

3 Apr 2020 Unfortunately, Jobless Claims Could Easily Rise Again Next Week (Publication Centre)

Today's payroll number is completely irrelevant, because 97% of the 10.2M increase--so far--in initial jobless claims from their pre-coronavirus level came after the employment survey was conducted, between Sunday March 8 and Saturday March 14.

3 Mar 2020 Covid-19 is Both a Supply and Demand Shock to the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that all remained calm in the EZ industrial sector through February.

3 April 2017 Brazil's Labour Market is Still Poor, but Likely Will Stabilize Soon (Publication Centre)

Economic data released on Friday underscored our view that bolder rate cuts in Brazil are looming. The BCB's latest BCB's inflation report, released on Thursday, showed that policymakers now see conditions in place to increase the pace of easing "moderately" .

3 December 2018 Tariff Deferment Shows Both Sides Want a Deal, but it Will Take Time (Publication Centre)

The agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 is a deferment of disaster rather than a fundamental rebuilding of the trading relationship between the U.S. and China.

3 June 2019 Economic Data Still Don't Warrant the Gilt Market's Gloom (Publication Centre)

Gilts continued to rally last week, with 10-year yields dropping to their lowest since October 2016, and the gap between two-year and 10-year yields narrowing to the smallest margin since September 2008.

3 July 2017 Three Jobs Reports in Nine Weeks set to Shift Market Rate Expectations (Publication Centre)

The next nine weeks bring three jobs reports, which will determine whether the Fed hikes again in September, as we expect, and will also help shape market expectations for December and beyond.

3 July 2019 Japan's Tankan Highlights Underlying Economic Weakness (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q2 Tankan survey wasn't all bad news, but the positives won't last long. The large manufacturers index dropped to 7 in Q2, after the decline to 12 in Q1.

3 July 2017 National Accounts Expose Britain's Economic Fragility (Publication Centre)

Last week's national accounts confirmed that the economy lost momentum abruptly in Q1, with net trade and investment failing to offset weaker growth in households' spending.

3 January 2017 Slowing Real Income Growth Will Define the 2017 U.K. Economy (Publication Centre)

The U.K. economy retained its momentum last year, despite the seismic shock of the vote to leave the EU. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth averaged 0.5% in the first three quarters of 2016, matching 2015's rate and the average pace of growth across the Atlantic.

3 January 2018 Synchronized Recovery in the Andes. Inflation Continues to Fall (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent weeks have confirmed that the Andean economies retained a degree of momentum in Q4, with inflation well under con trol.

3 July 2020 Have Consumers Saved Korea from a Technical Recession (Publication Centre)

The end of Korea's first Covid-19 wave, coupled with the government's economic support measures, has been a boon for the retail industry.

3 Jan 2020 More Soft EZ Manufacturing Data, but Markets Don't Care Anymore (Publication Centre)

The first economic report of 2020 confirmed the main story in the euro area last year; namely a recession in manufacturing.

3 Feb 2020 Chile to Perform Relatively Well this Year, the Protest Shock will Ease (Publication Centre)

Chile's stronger-than-expected industrial production report for December, and less-ugly-than- feared retail sales numbers, confirmed that the hit from the Q4 social unrest on economic activity is disappearing.

3 July 2020 We're Now Slightly Less Optimistic about Inventories in the EZ (Publication Centre)

This week's economic reports have provided clear, and uplifting, evidence that EZ consumers came out swinging as lockdowns were lifted.

3 Feb 2020 Some Hopeful Signs are Emerging in the Coronavirus Data (Publication Centre)

The number of coronavirus cases continues to increase, but we're expecting to see signs that the number of new cases is peaking within the next two to three weeks.

3 February 2017 MPC Signals Newfound Supply Optimism, no Near-Term Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

The absence of hawkish undertones in the minutes of the MPC's meeting or in the Inflation Report forecasts took markets by surprise yesterday. The dominant view on the Committee remains that the economy will slow over the next couple of years, preventing wage growth from reaching a pace which would put inflation on trac k permanently to exceed the 2% target.

3 Jan 2020 LatAm Prospects are Gradually Improving as Trade Tensions Ease (Publication Centre)

The data in LatAm were all over the map while we were out.

27 June 2017 Japanese Inflation to Hold up as Food Prices Counterbalance Energy (Publication Centre)

Japanese services price inflation edged down in May as the twin upside drivers of commodity price inflation and yen weakness began to lose steam. We expect wage costs to begin edging up in the second half but this will provide only a partial counterbalance.

29 Sept 2020 LatAm Central Banks have Closed the Door to Further Easing (Publication Centre)

Recent economic data in LatAm have alleviated concerns following weakness in the first half of the year, inflicted by Covid, and have even added some upside risks to our current-quarter growth calls for most economies.

29 July 2020 No Big Changes from the Fed Today, but Enhanced Guidance is Coming (Publication Centre)

We argued in the Monitor on Friday--see here--that the Fed likely will increase the pace of its Treasury purchases, in order to ensure that the wave of supply needed to finance the next Covid relief bill does not drive up yields.

29 January 2018 The Investor's Guide to the Business Cycle in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Money supply data in the EZ continue to suggest that headline GDP growth will slow soon.

29 June 2018 EZ Inflation is Back to Normal, but that's not Enough for the ECB (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's inflation data in the major euro area economies force us to mark down slightly our prediction for today's headline EZ number.

29 June 2018 Surveys Continue to Weaken the Case for a Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Surveys released yesterday failed to support the MPC's view that the economy has bounced back in Q2.

29 June 2020 More Bullish Money Supply Data in the Eurozone, M1 is Soaring (Publication Centre)

Friday's money supply data in the euro area show that liquidity support for the economy remained firm mid-way through Q2. Headline M3 rose by 8.9% year-over-year in May, accelerating from a revised 8.2% increase in April, and extending its ascent from around 5% before the Covid-19 shock.

29 Jan 2020 What Policy Measures Can we Expect to Cushion Corona-impact (Publication Centre)

The extent of shut downs within China is now reaching extreme levels, going far beyond services and threatening demand for commodities, as well as posing a severe risk to the nascent upturn in the tech cycle.

29 Jan 2020 We Hear You Mme President, but We Still Think You're on Autopilot (Publication Centre)

Our ECB-story since Ms. Lagarde took the helm as president has been that the central bank will do as little as possible through 2020, at least in terms of shifting its major policy tools.

29 Aug 2019 Hong Kong It's not Just the Economy, Stupid (Publication Centre)

Concern over individual freedoms was the spark for Hong Kong's recent demonstrations and troubles, and protesters' demands continue to be political in nature.

29 April 2019 Mexico's Economy is Stabilizing, Despite Stifling Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Mexico remains relatively sticky, limiting Banxico's capacity to adopt a more dovish approach, despite the subpar economic recovery.

29 August 2017 Hurricane Harvey will Depress September Output and Payrolls (Publication Centre)

The terrible scenes from Texas will play out in the economic data over the next few weeks.

29 Feb. 2016 Mexican Inflation Edging Higher - Don't Worry, for Now (Publication Centre)

Mexico's inflation has started to edge higher due mainly to an unfavorable base effect and pressures on food prices. The bi-weekly headline CPI for the first half of February edged up to 2.9% year-over-year and up from 2.7% in January and the record low of 2.3% in December.

29 Jan 2020 Brazil External Accounts Weakened in 2019, but Are Not a Concern Yet (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts were a relatively bright spot again last year.

29 June. 2016 French Households are in a Good Mood, Despite Dip in Sentiment (Publication Centre)

French consumer sentiment dipped slightly in June, but we see no major hit from ongoing labour market disputes. The headline index slipped to 97 in June, from 98 in May; this is a decent reading given the fourpoint jump last month. The headline was constrained by a big fall in consumers' "major purchasing intentions," but this partly was mean-reversion following a surge last month.

29 March 2017 Consumers are Happy, but Spending Will Lag Sentiment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data don't significantly change our view that first quarter GDP growth will be reported at only about 1%, but the foreign trade and consumer confidence numbers support our contention that the underlying trend in growth is rather stronger than that.

29 Oct 2020 Ms. Lagarde Needs to Rip up the Script Today, We think She Will (Publication Centre)

It's an almost cruel setup for the ECB today, following the central bank's slightly more confident tone last month.

29 Oct 2019 The Mexican Economy Stagnated in Q3, Q4 Will be Slightly Better (Publication Centre)

While we were out, data released in Mexico added to our downbeat view of the economy in the near term, supporting our base case for interest rate cuts in the near future.

29 Oct 2020 The Record Surge in Q3 GDP Growth does not Reverse the Covid Hit (Publication Centre)

In order fully to reverse the fall in GDP in the first and second quarters, the third quarter needs to grow at a 45.7% annualized rate.

29 October 2018 The Fed Wants to See Faster Wage Growth, but its Limit is not Far Off (Publication Centre)

We want to revisit remarks from Fed Vice-Chair Clarida last week.

29 October 2018 The Glass is Half-Full for French and German Households (Publication Centre)

Friday's consumer sentiment data in the two main Eurozone economies were mixed.

29 Oct 2019 Monetary Stimulus Alone Won't be Able to End the Next Recession (Publication Centre)

Monetary policy usually is the first line of defence whenever a recession hits.

29 Oct 2019 Consumers Still Confident, but Job Growth will Slow, Testing their Faith (Publication Centre)

We aren't convinced by the idea that consumers' confidence will be depressed as a direct result of the rollover in most of the regular surveys of business sentiment and activity.

29 Nov 2019 Banxico will Keep Cutting Rates, but Prudence will Prevail in the Near Term (Publication Centre)

Data released this week have confirmed that the Mexican economy is struggling and that the near-term outlook remains extremely challenging.

29 May 2019 Real M1 in is Now Telling a More Positive Story on EZ GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Headline money supply growth in the Eurozone accelerated further at the start of Q2.

29 November 2017 The Profit Share in GDP is set to Fall Sharply as Wage Growth Picks up (Publication Centre)

It doesn'tt matter if third quarter GDP growth is revised up a couple of tenths in today's third estimate of the data, in line with the consensus forecast.

3 January 2019 China's PMIs Deteriorate What are the Positives Amid the Gloom (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI doused hopes of turning over a January new leaf; it dropped to 49.7 in November, from 50.2 in December.

29 Oct 2019 China's Economy Still on the Rocks, A Bit More Easing is on its Way (Publication Centre)

Our analysis of the Q3 activity and GDP data in yesterday's Monitor strongly suggests that China's authorities will soon ready further stimulus.

29 April 2019 Growth Will be Slower in Q2, but not Slow, What Will the Fed Say? (Publication Centre)

The definition of "yesbutism": Noun, meaning the practice of dismissing or seeking to diminish the importance of data on the grounds that the next iteration will tell the opposite story.

25 Sept 2020 The New Job Support Scheme Won't Work as Intended (Publication Centre)

We doubt that the new Job Support Scheme, announced by the Chancellor yesterday, will hold back the tide of redundancies over the coming months.

24 Aug 2020 Second Covid Wave Continues to Ease, but Victory Still a Long Way Off (Publication Centre)

While we were out, new U.S. Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations continued to fall steadily, and deaths have now peaked.

24 Apr 2020 The EZ Economy Fell Flat on its Face in April, Now What? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI data in the euro area were a horror show. The composite EZ index cratered to 13.5 in April, from 29.7 in March, dragged down by a collapse in the services index to 11.7, from 26.4 last month.

24 Feb. 2015 Labor Data Set to Change Yellen's Tone at Today's Testimony? (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen is a committed believer in the orthodox idea that inflation is largely a cost-push phenomenon, and that the most important cost, by far, is labor. So in order to predict what Dr. Yellen might say about the outlook for Fed policy in her Testimony today--beyond the language of the January FOMC statement--we have to take a view on her assessment of the state of the labor market.

24 Jan 2020 How Soon will the Chancellor Use his Ample Fiscal Headroom? (Publication Centre)

The public finances are in better health than appeared to be the case a few months ago.

24 Jan 2020 Mid-month Inflation Data Support Banxico and BCB's Dovish Strategy (Publication Centre)

Brazilian inflation is off to a bad start this year, but January's jump is not the start of an uptrend, and we think good news is coming.

23 Sept 2020 The V-Shaped Recovery Died in Early Summer, Now, it's a Slog, at Best (Publication Centre)

We triggered a bit of pushback on social media yesterday when we suggested that Larry Kudlow's familiarity with the alphabet is questionable.

23 Sept 2020 The Housing Market is Starting to Come Off the Boil (Publication Centre)

It is fair to say that the strength of the rebound in the housing market over the summer has caught most analysts, including ourselves, by surprise.

23 November 2017 Is EZ Consumption on Track for Grand Finish to 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance consumer sentiment index in the Eurozone confirmed the upside risks for consumers' spending in Q4. The headline index rose to a 17- year high of +0.1 in November, from -1.0 in October.

3 Mar. 2015 Weak Euro Boosts Orders for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

Industrial companies in the Eurozone are still struggling with low growth, but the outlook is stabilising following the near-recession late last year. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.0 in February, trivially lower than the initial estimate of 51.1.

23 Oct 2020 Happy Holidays Coming for (Some) Retailers even as Covid Surges (Publication Centre)

When we're thinking about the prospects for the holiday shopping season, we usually focus on two questions.

23 October 2017 Wage Inflation Still Subdued, but a Decisive Turning Point is Coming (Publication Centre)

In the absence of any significant data releases today, we want to take a closer look at the outlook for wage growth, and the implications of an acceleration in hourly earnings for inflation.

23 October 2018 Will Yields on Gilts Close the Gap with Treasuries? (Publication Centre)

The gap between U.K. and U.S. government bond yields has continued to grow this year and is approaching a record.

24 Jan 2020 Ms. Lagarde Treads Water as the ECB Formally Unveils its Review (Publication Centre)

The ECB conformed to expectations today, at least on a headline level.

24 January 2017 LatAm Currencies Enjoying a Moment of Calm, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Most LatAm currencies traded higher against the USD yesterday, adding to the gains achieved after Donald Trump's inauguration last Friday. The MXN, which was the best performer during yesterday's session, was up about 0.8%; it was followed by the CLP, and the BRL. The positive performance of most LatAm currencies, especially the MXN, is related to positioning and technical factors.

24 October 2017 EZ Consumers' Spending Slowed in Q3, but Should Rebound in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone consumers' spending jumped in Q2, but we are pretty certain that a slowdown in retail sales constrained growth in Q3.

24 Oct 2019 Core Capex Orders aren't as Weak as the ISM Suggests... Yet (Publication Centre)

Core durable goods orders have not weakened as much as implied by the ISM manufacturing survey, as our first chart shows, but it is risky to assume this situation persists.

24 October 2018 EZ Households Face Uncertainty, Despite Solid Fundamentals (Publication Centre)

Consumer confidence in the Eurozone rose marginally at the start of Q4, though it is still down since the start of the year.

24 October. 2016 The Eurozone needs better PR (Publication Centre)

The EZ doom-and-gloom crew has come crawling out of the woodwork again this year. Earlier this month, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz told a German newspaper that Italy and other euro area countries likely will leave the currency union soon.

24 Sept 2020 PMIs Confirm Japan's Q3 Bounce, but Momentum will Fade in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Japan's economic recovery got back on track this month--just--according to yesterday's flash PMI numbers.

24 May 2019 Mexican Retail Sector is Stabilizing Despite Tight Financial Conditions (Publication Centre)

Mexico's retail sector is finally improving, following a grim second half last year.

24 Mar. 2016 In the March Employment Report, Wages are Wild (Publication Centre)

This is the final Monitor before we head out for our spring break, so we have added a page in order to make room to preview the employment report due next Friday, April 4. We expect a solid but unspectacular 175K increase in payrolls, slowing from February's unsustainable 242K, but still robust.

24 July 2019 If a Downturn Materialises, Households Will Feel its Full Force (Publication Centre)

Our base case remains that the slowdown in quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to about zero in Q2 is just a blip, and that the economy will regain momentum in Q3 and sustain it well into 2020.

24 January 2019 Slower Growth won't Necessarily Loosen the Labor Market Much (Publication Centre)

One of the arguments we hear in favor of an endless Fed pause--in other words, the cyclical tightening is over--is that GDP growth is set to slow markedly this year, to only 2% or so.

24 July 2020 Will the Fed Step-up the Pace of QE as Issuance Surges Again (Publication Centre)

If Congress passes another Covid relief bill early next month, as we fully expect, it will have to be financed quickly via increased debt issuance.

24 June 2020 Department Stores are Struggling, Do People Feel Unsafe at the Mall (Publication Centre)

Chainstores are continuing to struggle, even as the reopening of the economy continues.

24 June 2020 Steady as She Goes in the EZ PMIs, the Rebound Continues (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's June PMIs offered more of the same, insofar as the survey's key message goes in the past few months.

22 July. 2015 Brazil's Worst Recession In 25 Years Will Stop The BCB, Soon (Publication Centre)

Recent economic weakness in Brazil, particularly in the labor market, has strengthened our view that the central bank is close to the end of its painful, but necessary, tightening cycle. We expect the BCB to increase its policy rate by 50bp to 14.25% at next week's monetary policy meeting, and then leave the rate on hold for the foreseeable future.

22 March 2018 Strong Growth, Gradual Hikes, and Only a bit of Inflation, Here's Hoping (Publication Centre)

The most striking feature of the Fed's new forecasts is the projected overshoot in core PCE inflation at end-2019 and end-2020, which fits our definition of "persistent".

23 Jan 2020 The CBI's Survey is Another Positive Sign for the PMI, at the Margin (Publication Centre)

Further evidence that the general election has transformed business confidence emerged yesterday, in the form of January's CBI Industrial Trends survey.

23 Mar 2020 We're Updating our Forecasts, Take them With a Pinch of Salt (Publication Centre)

Economists' forecasts are changing almost as quickly as market prices these days, and not for the better.

23 February 2017 The IFO Agrees with the PMI: German GDP Growth to Rise in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German IFO survey broadly confirmed the bullish message from the PMIs earlier this week. The headline business climate index rose to 111.0 in February from a revised 109.9 in January, boosted by increases in both the current assessment and the expectations index.

23 February 2017 Fiscal Easing Could Boost Growth Substantially, but not for Long (Publication Centre)

The White House budget proposals, which Roll Call says will be released in limited form on March 14, will include forecasts of sustained real GDP growth in a 3-to-3.5% range, according to an array of recent press reports.

23 Mar. 2015 Brazil's Inflation Target is Wishful Thinking for 2015 - Maybe in 2016 (Publication Centre)

The bad news just keeps coming for Brazil's economy. The mid-month CPI, the IPCA-15 index, rose 1.2% month-to-month in March. Soaring energy prices remain the key contributor to the inflation story in Brazil, pushing up the housing component by 2.8% in March, after a 2.2% increase in February.

23 January 2017 The Fed's Idea of Full Employment is not the Same as Main Street's (Publication Centre)

Full employment is a deceptively simple-sounding concept. If everyone who wants a job has one, the economy is at full employment, right? Anything less tends to raise eyebrows among non-economists, whether the people who want a job are formally inside the labor force, or have dropped out but would come back if they thought they could find work.

23 Mar 2020 The Growth of European Covid-19 Cases Slowed Sharply Yesterday (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of new coronavirus infections across Europe slowed yesterday, in some cases quite markedly. We can quibble about the reliability of the data in individual countries, given variations in testing regimes, but the picture is strikingly uniform.

23 June 2020 The Leap in Germany's Covid-19 R-Number is Misleadingly Scary (Publication Centre)

The big talking point over the weekend was the report from Germany's Robert Koch Institute, RKI, that the Covid-19 reproductive rate jumped to 2.88 at the end of last week, driving the seven-day average up to 2.07.

23 July 2020 Upside Risk for Initial Jobless Claims Today, Amid Substantial Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

We need to start today with a word of warning about today's initial jobless claims, where the risk to the consensus seems mostly to be to the upside.

23 January 2019 The MPC Won't Risk Letting the Labour Market Overheat (Publication Centre)

November's labour market data were the last before the MPC's February meeting, when it will conduct its annual assessment of the supply side of the economy.

23 January 2019 More of the Same From German Bund Yields in 2019 (Publication Centre)

German 10-year yields have been trading according to a simple rule of thumb since 2017, namely, anything around 0.6% has been a buy, and 0.2%, or below, has been a sell.

23 June 2020 The Treasury has Cash on Hand to Cut VAT, but Should Focus Elsewhere (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak looks set to announce more fiscal stimulus next month to reinforce the economic recovery, despite recent record levels of public borrowing.

23 April 2018 Behind the Base-Case Forecast, Risks Abound, in Both Directions (Publication Centre)

For now, we're happy with our base-case forecast that growth will be nearer 3% than 2% this year, and that most of the rise in core inflation this year will come as a result of unfavorable base effects, rather than a serious increase in the month-to-month trend.

23 May 2017 Has the Outlook for Business Investment Brightened? (Publication Centre)

The recent deceleration in households' real spending means that either business investment or net exports will have to pickup if the economy is to avoid a severe slowdown this year.

22 May 2019 Will the EZ Consumer Save the Day for the Economy in Q2 (Publication Centre)

We still don't have the complete picture of what happened to EZ consumers' spending in Q1, but the initial details suggest that growth acceleretated slightly at the start of the year.

22 May 2020 An Uptick in Sentiment Indicators, but Brazil's Covid Crisis Worsens (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus pandemic is wreaking havoc in Brazil.

22 May 2019 The MPC Won't Be "Indifferent" if Sterling Falls Further (Publication Centre)

On a trade-weighted basis, sterling has dropped by only 1.5% since the start of the month, but it is easy to envisage circumstances in which it would fall significantly further.

22 May 2017 What Does the Path to the Recession of 2019 Look Like? (Publication Centre)

In recent years only one event has made a material difference to the growth path of the U.S. economy, namely, the plunge in oil prices which began in the summer of 2014. The ensuing collapse in capital spending in the mining sector and everything connected to it, pulled GDP growth down from 2½% in both 2014 and 2015 to just 1.6% in 2016.

22 March 2018 Wage Growth Still Lacks Momentum, Giving the MPC Time (Publication Centre)

Slack in the labour market no longer is being absorbed and wage growth still is struggling for momentum, placing little pressure on the MPC to rush the next rate rise.

22 May 2020 Don't Over-Interpret the May PMIs, a Slow Rebound is Underway (Publication Centre)

It seems that yesterday's PMI data left investors and analysts more confused than enlightened.

22 Nov 2019 Don't Worry About the Uptick in Jobless Claims, Unless it Persists (Publication Centre)

Back-to-back elevated weekly jobless claims numbers prove nothing, but they have grabbed our attention.

23 Apr 2020 EZ Consumption is Collapsing, but Fundamentals offer Hope (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data provided the first glimpse of the crash in EZ sentiment at the start of Q2, ahead of today's more substantial barrage of numbers, including French INSEE data, GfK confidence numbers in Germany and the advance PMIs.

23 May 2017 How to Lift French GDP Growth to Above 1.5% Year-over-year (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the French economy since the sovereign debt crisis has been lukewarm. Growth in domestic demand, excluding inventories, has averaged 0.4% quarter-on-quarter since 2012. This comp ares with 0.8%-to-1.1% in the two major business cycle upturns in the 1990s and from 2000s before the crisis.

22 Sept 2020 Interest in the Housing Market is Peaking, but a Rout is Unlikely (Publication Centre)

We remain bullish on the near-term outlook for the housing market, but momentum in the mortgage applications numbers has faded a bit in recent weeks.

22 November 2017 What's the Case for Increased Fiscal Stimulus in the Eurozone? (Publication Centre)

The euro area's record-high external surplus has prompted commentators to suggest that the zone has room to loosen fiscal policy to support growth, or at least relax the deficit reduction rules.

22 November 2017 LEIs Point to Stabilising Japanese Domestic Demand Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Japan's all-industry activity index fell 0.5% month-on- month in September after a 0.2% rise in August. Construction activity continued to plummet, with the subindex dropping 2.3%, after a 2.2% fall in August.

24 Sept 2020 With Fiscal Relief Hopes Fading Q4 GDP Growth is Set to Slow Sharply (Publication Centre)

Our working assumption now is that Congress will not pass a substantial Covid relief bill until next year, probably in February.

25 April 2018 Brazil's Labour Market Recovery Has Lost Momentum, but it will Improve (Publication Centre)

In Brazil, last week's formal payroll employment report for March was decent, with employment increasing by 56K, well above the consensus expectation for a 48K gain.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises (Publication Centre)

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three months.

26 Oct 2020 EZ Q4 GDP Growth Forecasts Fall, the Only Question is, How Much? (Publication Centre)

The headline EZ data added to the evidence of a weakening recovery while we were away.

26 October 2017 The Capex Rebound Promised by the NFIB is Reaching the Hard Data (Publication Centre)

After three straight 1.3% month-to-month increases in core capital goods orders, we are becoming increasingly confident that the upturn in business investment signalled by the NFIB survey is now materializing.

26 Sept 2019 Another Month, Another Increase in French Consumer Confidence (Publication Centre)

Economic news in the Eurozone, and virtually everywhere else, has been mostly downbeat in the past few months, but French consumers are doing great.

26 September 2017 Is the Most Important Data--Wage Growth--Forecastable? (Publication Centre)

Markets will be hyper-sensitive to U.K. data releases following the MPC's warning that it is on the verge of raising interest rates.

26 Nov 2020 The Fiscal Repair Job will be Bigger than the OBR's Forecasts Imply (Publication Centre)

The OBR's new forecasts for public borrowing likely understate the scale of the necessary future fiscal consolidation.

26 Nov 2020 More Evidence of Japan's Stalling Recovery, as Downside Risks Mount (Publication Centre)

The recovery in private consumption in Japan is showing clear signs of stalling.

26 March 2019 Part One Q&A from our Meetings Last Week BoJ Easing Options (Publication Centre)

Meetings are a nice way to stress test our base case stories and gauge what questions are important for clients.

26 Mar 2020 Substantial Upside Risk for Jobless Claims, we Expect 3.5 Million (Publication Centre)

The consensus for today's first post-apocalypse jobless claims number, 1,500K, looks much too low.

26 May 2020 High Gilt Issuance no Sweat for Investors, for the Time Being (Publication Centre)

A decade of public deficit reduction was fully reversed in April, as the coronavirus tore through the economy.

26 Nov 2019 Mexico's Economy is in a Mild Recession, Downside Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Mexico's final estimate of third quarter GDP, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy is still struggling in the face of domestic and external headwinds.

26 Nov 2019 The IFO in Germany Still Tells a Story of Imminent Recession (Publication Centre)

The November IFO report suggests that the headline indices are on track for a tepid recovery in Q4 as a whole, but the central message is still one of downside risks to growth

26 September 2017 Brazil's Labor Market is on the Mend, But Challenges Persist (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian labour market is slowly healing following the severe recession of 2015-16. The latest employment data, released last week, showed that the economy added 35K net jobs in August, compared to a 34K loss in August 2016.

26 September 2018 Is the French Economy Still on Track For a Rebound in H2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of French business sentiment data was mixed.

27 Jan 2020 Mexico's IGAE Index Points to a Further Dip in GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The dovish members of Banxico's board garnered further support on Friday for prolonging the current easing monetary cycle over coming meetings.

27 Feb 2020 Yesterday's Measures from China Help Avert Full-Blown Debt Crisis (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's State Council meeting significantly expanded support to the economy, through a number of channels.

27 Jan 2020 The EZ PMIs were Soft in January, but the German Data were Solid (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMI data were a mixed bag.

27 Jan 2020 Who are the Biggest Casualties of China's Travel Curbs (Publication Centre)

On Friday last week, the Chinese authorities suspended sales of domestic and international tours, in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus, which started in Wuhan.

27 July 2020 Low Inflation in Brazil will Allow the Copom to Cut Rates in August (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday in Brazil and recent political events helped to open the door further to a final rate cut in August. The IPCA-15--which previews the full CPI-- rose 0.3% month-to-month in July, well below market expectations, 0.5%.

27 Feb 2020 Survey Data in France were Stable and Solid Midway through Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 scare can be split into two stages, the initial outbreak in China, concentrated in Wuhan, and the now-worrying signs that clusters are forming in other parts of the world, primarily in South Korea, the Middle East and Italy.

27 Aug 2020 The Fed's Framework Review Likely Means Data-Contingent Guidance (Publication Centre)

We're assuming that Chair Powell will offer at least some comment on the current state of the economy and the outlook in his virtual Jackson Hole speech at 09:10 Eastern time this morning, though the main focus of the presentation will be the results of the Fed's Monetary Policy Framework Review.

27 Apr 2020 The EU's Political Leaders are in a Trap of their own Making (Publication Centre)

Last week's European Council meeting provided little in the way of clarity over the likelihood of a jointly financed response to support economies through the Covid-19 outbreak.

26 September 2018 The Fed Must Keep Hiking as the Labor Market Keeps Tightening (Publication Centre)

It would be astonishing if the Fed doesn't raise rates today, and Chair Powell is not in the astonishment business; they will hike by 25bp.

27 April 2017 How Much Further Can Mortgage Rates Fall? (Publication Centre)

Growth in households' disposable incomes has been supported in recent years by falling debt servicing costs. The proportion of households' incomes absorbed by interest payments fell to a record low of 4.5% in Q4 last year, down from 4.7% a year ago and a peak of 10% in 2008.

27 Aug 2020 Don't Put too Much Stock into Korea's August Confidence Indices (Publication Centre)

It looks as though business and consumer confidence in Korea has brushed off the economic threat of the second Covid-19 wave.

27 Aug 2020 French Consumption is on the Rise, but the Uptrend won't Last (Publication Centre)

The headline INSEE consumer confidence data in France have become unmoored from reality.

26 June 2020 German Consumption is on the Mend, but Q2 won't be Pretty (Publication Centre)

Looking beyond the potential hit from the lockdown in North Rhine-Westphalia, German consumer sentiment is improving steadily.

26 June 2019 COPOM is Ready to Cut Rates, but Only if Politicians Don't Mess Up (Publication Centre)

Politics in Brazil has been busy in recent days, with local media reporting several items of interest.

25 July 2019 Grim Manufacturing Data Confirm Investors' Priors in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Broadly speaking, yesterday's headline EZ survey data recounted the same story they've told all year; namely that manufacturing is suffering amid resilience in services.

25 January 2018 The MPC Needn't Rush the Next Rate Hike to Keep Wages in Check (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's labour market data brought further signs that wage growth is recovering from its early 2017 dip.

25 June 2019 New Home Sales Set for a Steady Summer, but New Highs in the Fall (Publication Centre)

We are fundamentally quite bullish on the housing market, given the 100bp drop in mortgage rates over the past six months and the continued strength of the labor market, but today's May new home sales report likely will be unexciting.

25 Mar 2020 EZ Recession Confirmed, but how Long will the Slump Last (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's March PMIs confirmed that governments' actions to contain the Covid-19 outbreak dealt a hammer blow to the economy at the end of Q1.

25 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil and Mexico is Easing, No Immediate Threats Here (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the biggest economies in the region remains close to cyclical lows, allowing central banks to ease even further over the next few months.

25 Feb. 2015 Yellen Bullish on Growth and Jobs - "Patient" Set to Go in March? (Publication Centre)

Chair Yellen's Testimony sought clearly to tell markets that the Fed has upgraded its view on growth, and the state of the labor market. After reading the first few paragraphs, which focussed clearly on the good news, though peppered with the usual caveats, the door was open for the section on policy to signal unambiguously that the Fed is close to its first tightening.

25 Feb 2020 Inflation in Brazil and Mexico is Tame, but the Virus is a Real Threat (Publication Centre)

Brazil's inflation rate remained well under control over the first half of February.

25 Aug 2020 Strong Home Sales Coming, but Threats to the Rebound Increasing (Publication Centre)

We have been bullish about the housing market for some time now--since Google searches for "new homes" and mortgage demand began to pick up, in late April--but we might not have been bullish enough.

25 Aug 2020 Covid Cases are Easing in Mexico Supporting a Soft Economic Upturn (Publication Centre)

New Covid-19 cases in Mexico have continued to fall steadily over this month, with deaths peaking two weeks ago, as shown in our first chart.

25 August. 2016 Surging Net Exports Prevented a Q2 GDP Contraction in Germany (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final Q2 GDP report in Germany confirmed the initial data showing that the economy slowed less than we expected last quarter. Real GDP rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, after a 0.7% jump in Q1. The working-day adjusted year-over-year rate fell marginally to 1.8%, from 1.9% in Q1.

25 Feb 2020 Don't Expect the BoK to Jump the Gun with Counter-Virus Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea is likely to keep its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.25%, at its meeting this week.

25 Feb 2020 EZ Markets are Now Seriously Worried about Coronavirus (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a watershed moment for investors.

25 Nov 2019 The PMI Data Still Signal Weaker Growth ahead in the EZ (Publication Centre)

The PMIs in the Eurozone are still warning that the economy is in much worse shape than implied by remarkably stable GDP growth so far this year.

25 Nov 2020 Temporary Divergent Inflation Fortunes in Brazil and Mexico (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the biggest economies in the region remains close to cyclical lows, but it has taken divergent paths in November, allowing Banxico to ease even further over the next few months.

26 Feb 2020 Time for a Further Downgrade of Chinese Q1 GDP (Publication Centre)

In our Webinar--see here--we laid out scenarios for Chinese GDP in Q1 and for this year.

26 Feb 2020 Global Threats will Continue to Hurt the Mexican Economy this Year (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirmed that Mexico's economy ended Q4 poorly, confounding the most hawkish Banxico Board members.

26 February 2018 Look for the Forest Among the Trees in the EZ Core Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Friday's final CPI report in the Eurozone confirmed that inflation dipped marginally in January, by 0.1 percentage points, to 1.3%.

26 February 2018 Is the Economy's Speed Limit Higher than the MPC Thinks? (Publication Centre)

November's interest rate rise, which took investors by surprise, was triggered in part by the MPC slashing its estimate of trend growth to 1.5%, from an implicit 2.0%.

26 June 2018 Treat Surveys Pointing to Faster Wage Growth Sceptically (Publication Centre)

This was supposed to be the year that wage growth finally would pick up and signal clearly to the MPC that the economy needs higher interest rates.

26 Feb 2020 Germany Faces Coronavirus Uncertainty in a Weakened State (Publication Centre)

The German economy finished last year on the back foot.

26 Aug 2020 Capex is Rising, but it Won't Recover its Losses in the Foreseeable Future (Publication Centre)

After two hefty month-to-month increases, durable goods orders ex-transportation now stand only 3.9% below their January pre-Covid peak.

25 October 2017 EZ PMIs Stepped Back at the Start of Q4, but Still Signal Solid Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance PMI reports in the euro area signal that economic momentum slowed slightly at the start of Q4.

25 Oct 2019 Mortgage Lending to Remain Stable, Despite the Brexit Headwinds (Publication Centre)

The mortgage market is continuing to hold up surprisingly well, given the calamitous political backdrop.

25 October. 2016 Consumers Confidence is High, but Expect an October Correction (Publication Centre)

Recent consumer confidence numbers have been strong enough that we don't need to see any further increase. The expectations components of both the Michigan and Conference Board surveys are consistent with real spending growth of 21⁄2-to- 3%, which is about the best we can expect when real income growth, after tax, is trending at about 21⁄2%.

25 September 2017 Another Month, Another Robust PMI Report in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy ended the third quarter on a strong note, according to the PMIs.

26 Apr. 2016 Focus on the Positive Details in Yesterday's German IFO Survey (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German IFO survey suggests that economic momentum in the Eurozone's largest country remained modest at the start of Q2. The headline business climate index fell trivially to 106.6 in April, from 106.7 in March, lower than the consensus expectation of an increase to 107.2.

27 June 2017 Flat Capex Orders won't Stop the Labor Market Tightening Further (Publication Centre)

The flat trend in core capital goods orders continued through May, according to yesterday's durable goods orders report. We are not surprised.

5 Dec 2019 The Downshift in ADP Employment Probably is Signal, not Noise (Publication Centre)

We were worried about downside risk to yesterday's ADP employment measure, but the 67K increase in November private payrolls was at the very bottom of our expected range.

6 September. 2016 German Services PMI Taints an Otherwise Strong Day for EZ Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ PMI data surprised to the downside. The composite PMI in the euro area dipped to 52.9 in August, from 53.2 in July, below the initial estimate 53.3. The headline was marred by weakness in the German services PMI, which crashed to a 40-month low of 51.7, from 54.4 in July.

6 Sept 2019 Don't be Swayed if August Payrolls Jump a Real Slowdown is Coming (Publication Centre)

We're nudging up our forecast for today's August payroll number to 180K, in the wake of the ADP report.

7 Apr. 2016 Real Economic Data Point to an Upbeat German GDP Story in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German industrial production data were poor, but better than we expected. Output fell 0.5% month-to-month in February, pushing annual growth down to 1.3% from a revised 1.8% in January. In addition, net revisions to the month-to-month data were a hefty -1.0%, but this is not enough to change the story of a Q1 rebound in industrial production.

7 April 2017 Mixed Signals for March Payrolls, but 200K Seems a Fair Bet (Publication Centre)

Everything but the weather points to a strong headline payroll number for March. Our composite leading payroll indicator has signalled robust job growth since last fall, and the message for March is very clear.

7 Aug 2020 Brazil Likely will Keep Rates on Hold, as Long as the Economy Recovers (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board-- COPOM--met expectations on Wednesday, voting unanimously to cut the Selic rate by 25bp to 2.00%.

7 Aug 2020 A Modest Rise in Payrolls Look Likely, but Big Risks in Both Directions (Publication Centre)

The final Monitor before our summer break is characterized by great uncertainty.

6 October 2017 September Payrolls Hit by the Hurricanes, but Earnings set to Pop (Publication Centre)

We would be quite surprised if today's official payroll number exceeded the 135K ADP reading; a clear undershoot is much more likely.

6 Oct 2020 Mexico's PMIs are Improving, but the Near-Term Outlook Remains Bleak (Publication Centre)

The September PMI surveys in Mexico continue to bolster our argument for a subpar recovery in the second half of the year.

6 Nov 2020 Powell Begs for More Fiscal Action, but More QE is Coming, Either Way (Publication Centre)

The Fed's inaction yesterday was no surprise, but it doesn't necessarily tell us anything about what will happen over the next few months.

6 May. 2016 Payrolls Likely On Trend - Watch Out for a Rebound in Wages (Publication Centre)

Barring some sort of out-of-the-blue shock, we are much more interested in the hourly earnings data today than the headline payroll number. The key question is the extent to which wages rebound after being depressed by a persistent calendar quirk in both February and March.

6 Nov. 2015 Payroll Uncertainty (Even) Greater than Usual in October (Publication Centre)

Any model of payrolls based on the usual indicators--jobless claims, ISM hiring, NFIB hiring, and other sundry surveys--right now points to payroll growth at 250K or better. Indeed, the ISM non-manufacturing report on Wednesday is consistent with payroll growth closer to 400K, and the lagged NFIB hiring intentions number points to 300K. Yet the consensus forecast for today's October report is just 182K. Why so timid?

6 November 2017 Payrolls Restored, Expect a Dramatic Labor Market Tightening Next Year (Publication Centre)

The 351K net increase in payrolls reported Friday--a 261K October gain and a 90K total revision to August and September--puts the labor market back on track after the hurricanes temporarily hit the data.

6 Oct 2020 Covid Threatens Medium-Term GDP Growth but the Story is not All Bad (Publication Centre)

The steep rise in the number of people unemployed for more than six months attracted a good deal of media attention after the release of Friday's August jobs report, as well it might.

7 August 2017 While we were Out... (Publication Centre)

...The Fed did nothing, surprising no-one; the labor market tightened further; the housing market tracked sideways; survey data mostly slipped a bit; and oil prices jumped nearly $4, briefly nudging above $50 for the first time since May.

7 December 2018 Expect Solid November Jobs (Publication Centre)

We're sticking to our 220K forecast for today's official payroll number, despite the slightly smaller-than- expected 179K increase in the ADP measure of private employment.

7 June 2018 Japanese Firms Have Hiked Pay to Retain Workers (Publication Centre)

Japan's average year-over-year wage growth slowed sharply in May, but this mainly was a correction of the April spike.

7 June 2017 The Slowing in Consumer Credit Demand is Good News (Publication Centre)

Today's consumer credit report for April likely will show that the stock of debt rose by about $15B, a bit below the recent trend. The monthly numbers are volatile, but the underlying trend rate of increase has eased over the past year-and-a-half, as our first chart shows. The slowdown has been concentrated in the non-revolving component, though the rate of growth of the stock of revolving credit--mostly credit cards--has dipped recently, perhaps because of weather effects and the late Easter.

7 June 2018 Slower Growth in Consumer Credit is a Correction, not a Warning (Publication Centre)

We've been hearing a good deal about the slowdown in the rate of growth of consumer credit in recent months, and with the April data due for release today, it makes sense now to reiterate our view that the recent numbers are no cause for alarm.

7 June 2019 Job Gains Likely Slowed Sharply in May, but will Recover (Publication Centre)

In the wake of Wednesday's ADP report, showing a mere 27K increase in private payrolls, we cut our payroll forecast to 100K.

7 March 2017 Can Italy's Economy Overcome Weak Real Wage Growth in 2017? (Publication Centre)

The Italian economy slowed at the end 2017, and it continues to underperform other major EZ economies. Real GDP rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, a bit slower than the 0.3% gain in Q3, pushing full-year growth up to a modest 1.0%. This compares poorly, though, with growth of 1.6% in the euro area as a whole.

7 July. 2015 May Trade Data Today are Critical to Q2 GDP Growth Estimates (Publication Centre)

Markets often pay little attention to the monthly foreign trade numbers, but today's May data are important because they could easily make a big difference to expectations for second quarter GDP growth. The key question is the extent to which exports have recovered since the port dispute on the West Coast, which severely distorted trade flows in the early part of the year.

7 July 2020 Will the Weakness of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue in Q3? (Publication Centre)

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been terrible. The worst of the recession seems to be over, but recent hard data have underscored the severity of the shock and made it clear that the recovery has a long way to go.

7 Jan 2020 Chile's Economic Upturn Stuttered in Q4, Risks to Growth are Stabilizing (Publication Centre)

Chile's near-term economic outlook is still negative, but clouds have been gradually dispersing since late Q4, due mostly to better news on the global trade front, China's improving economic prospects, and rising copper prices.

7 Feb 2020 Upside Risk for Payrolls Today, but Forward-Looking Surveys are Soft (Publication Centre)

We raised our forecast for today's January payroll number after the ADP report, to 200K from 160K.

7 Jan. 2015 - Oil Will Flatter Headline Trade Data, But Won't Stop Q4 Hit (Publication Centre)

The plunge in oil prices me ans that U.S. oil imports are set to drop much further over the next few months, flattering the headline trade deficit. The trend in imports has been downwards since early 2013, as our first chart shows, reflecting the surge in domestic production. That surge is now over, but as falling prices become the dominant factor in the oil import story, the trend will remain downwards.

7 January 2019 Eurozone Headline Inflation will Fall Further in Coming Months (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone fell significantly last month, and probably will ease further in Q1.

7 July 2017 Upside Risk for Payroll. Despite Soft ADP. Robust AHE a Decent Bet too (Publication Centre)

ADP's reported 158K increase in private payrolls was very close to our model-based estimate, so it doesn't change our 220K forecast for todays official payroll number, well above the 177K consensus.

6 May 2020 Timely Indicators Show the Economy is Adapting to the Lockdown (Publication Centre)

Emerging evidence suggests that the economy has passed the period of peak Covid-19 pain.

6 May 2020 ADP Today Likely will Understate the Hit to April Payrolls (Publication Centre)

Today's April ADP employment report likely will understate the scale of the net payroll losses which will be reported Friday by the BLS.

6 Dec 2019 Downside Risk for November Payrolls, Ex-GM, we Expect Just 60K (Publication Centre)

October payrolls were stronger than we expected, rising 128K, despite a 46K hit from the GM strike.

6 August 2018 July Surveys Point to Below-Trend GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The MPC's view that the economy likely will grow at an above-trend rate over the coming quarters was challenged immediately last week by the PMIs.

6 December 2017 ADP to Report Strong November Jobs, but will Overstate Official Data (Publication Centre)

The ADP measure of private employment hugely overstated the official measure of payrolls in September, in the wake of Hurricane Irma, but then slightly understated the October number.

6 December 2018 Take China's Services PMI with Enough Salt to Alarm your Doctor (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI leapt to an eyebrow- raising 53.8 in November, from 50.8 in October.

6 Feb 2020 Productivity Growth is Set to Slow After Last Year's Nine-Year High (Publication Centre)

Productivity likely rose by 1.7% last year, the best performance since 2010.

6 August 2018 Don't Worry About July's Payroll Numbers, Trend is Still 200K-plus (Publication Centre)

We are not worried, at all, by the slowdown in headline payroll growth to 157K in July from an upwardly-revised 248K in June.

6 Aug 2020 ADP Signals Only a Modest Rise in July Payrolls, August will be Weaker (Publication Centre)

Our hopes of another solid increase in payrolls in July were severely dented by yesterday's ADP report, showing that private payrolls rose only 167K in July.

5 Sept 2019 Payroll Growth is Still Good Enough, Just, but Slower Gains Ahead (Publication Centre)

Labor demand, as measured by an array of business surveys, clearly slowed from the cycle peak, recorded late last year.

5 Oct 2020 The Election Picture isn't Changed by Trump's Test, he is Still Likely to Lose (Publication Centre)

The initial stock market reaction to news of President Trump's Covid test never made much sense. Sure, markets do not like uncertainty, but in a country where the election is only four weeks away, and very few voters remain undecided, it's hard to see how Mr. Trump's diagnosis materially changes the race.

5 September 2017 Underlying Trend in Labor Data Unaffected by "Soft" August Report (Publication Centre)

We had hoped that the statistical problems which have plagued the initial estimates of August payrolls in recent years had faded, but Friday's report suggests our judgement was premature.

6 April 2017 Firms in the EZ are Investing Again, but What About Wages? (Publication Centre)

Readers have asked us about the availability of flow-of-funds data in the Eurozone similar to the detailed U.S. reports. The ECB's sector accounts come close and cover a lot of ground, but are also released with a lag. We can't cover all sectors in one Monitor, but the investment data for non-financial firms, excluding construction, suggest that investment growth slowed last year.

6 April 2018 Expect a Correction in Payrolls, but the Trend is Still Very Strong (Publication Centre)

Your correspondent is on the slopes this week, but the employment report deserves a preview nonetheless.

6 Feb 2020 The PMIs Point to Stronger GDP Growth in Q1 than the MPC Expects (Publication Centre)

The post-election run of upbeat business surveys was extended yesterday, with the release of the final Markit/CIPS services PMI for January.

6 Feb. 2015 Payroll Growth Trending at 250K-plus - Expect Strength Today (Publication Centre)

The odds favor a robust January payroll report today. The key leading indicator--the NIFB hiring intentions index from five months ago--points to a 275K increase, while the coincident NFIB actual employment change index suggests 260K.

6 Mar 2020 Are Migration and Climate Change Challenges Uniting the EU (Publication Centre)

In today's Monitor, we'll let the economy be, and focus instead on what are fast becoming the two defining political issues for the EU and its new Commission, namely migration and climate change.

6 July. 2015 Labor Market is Still Tightening, Despite June Payroll Miss (Publication Centre)

First, a deep breath: June payrolls, with a margin of error of +/-107K, missed the consensus by 10K. Adding in the -60K revisions and the miss is still statistically insignificant. The story, therefore, is that there is no story. Even relative to our more bullish forecast, the miss was just 37K. Nothing bad happened in June. But we hav e to acknowledge that payroll growth has now undershot the pace implied by the NFIB's hiring intentions number--lagged by five months--in each of the past four months. In June, the survey pointed to a 320K jump in private employment, overshooting the actual print by nearly 100K.

6 Mar 2020 Job Gains Likely Slowed Last Month, but the Covid-19 Hit is Still to Come (Publication Centre)

We think today's February payroll number will be reported at about 140K, undershooting the 175K consensus.

6 Mar. 2015 Decent But Unspectacular Job Gains in February? (Publication Centre)

Our base forecast for today's February payroll number is an unspectacular 220K, though if you twist our arms we'd probably say that we'd be less surprised by a big overshoot to this estimate than an undershoot. The single biggest argument against a big print today is simply that February payrolls have initially been under-reported in each of the past five years and then revised higher.

6 March 2019 We're Still Not Buying the PMIs' No Growth Message (Publication Centre)

The small rise in the Markit/CIPS services PMI to 51.3 in February, from 50.1 in January, came as a relief yesterday.

6 July 2020 June Likely is the Payroll High-Water Mark, as the Second Wave Spreads (Publication Centre)

Let's get straight to the point: It's very unlikely that July's payroll numbers will be as good as June's. Too many direct and indirect indicators of employment and broader economic activity are now moving in the wrong direction.

6 July 2018 June Payroll Growth Likely Slowed, a Bit, Hourly Earnings are a Wild Card (Publication Centre)

The ADP private sector employment number was a bit weaker than we expected in May, and the undershoot relative to our forecast has pulled down our model's estimate for today's official number

6 February 2019 The Chilean Economy Eased Off in Late Q4 2019 will be Better (Publication Centre)

Chile's Imacec index confirmed that economic growth ended the year on a soft note, due mainly to weakness in the mining sector.

6 February 2017 Soft January Hourly Earnings Will Prove Short-Lived (Publication Centre)

Markets over-reacted to the much smaller-than-expected 0.1% increase in January hourly earnings, in our view. We don't have a full explanation for the shortfall against our 0.5% forecast, but that doesn't make it wise to throw out the baby with the bathwater, making the de facto assumption that wage growth now won't accelerate in the future.

6 Jan 2020 Risks are Tilted to the Upside for this Week's EZ Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Friday's early EZ CPI data for December were red hot. Headline HICP inflation in Germany jumped to 1.5%, from 1.3% in November, while the headline rate in France increased by 0.4pp, to 1.6%.

6 Jan. 2015 - How Will the Fed React to Sub- Zero Headline Inflation in Q2? (Publication Centre)

The latest drop in crude oil prices me ans that sub-zero headline CPI inflation in the spring is now more likely than not. We expect a lurch down from November's 1.3% to 0.7% in December, then 0.3% in January. The rate will remain close to that level for the next few months before hitting zero in May and slipping into negative territory--just--in June and July.

6 January 2017 Will the ECB's Doves Be Overrun by Higher Inflation in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone is on the rise but, as we explained in yesterday's Monitor it is unlikely to prompt the ECB further to reduce the pace of QE in the short run. The central bank has signalled a shift in focus towards core inflation, at a still-low 0.9% well below the 2% target. But the core rate also is a lagging indicator, and we think it will creep higher in 2017.

7 Nov 2019 Storm Clouds Gathering for the Auto Market as Loan Standards Tighten (Publication Centre)

One bad month proves nothing, but our first chart shows that October's auto sales numbers were awful, dropping unexpectedly to a six-month low.

7 November 2017 JOLTS Report will Confirm that Labor Demand is Rising Strongly (Publication Centre)

No single measure of labor demand is always a reliable leading indicator of the official payroll numbers, which is why we track an array of private and official measures.

9 May 2017 Chainstore Sales Rebound Points to Robust Q2 Consumption (Publication Centre)

If the Redbook chain store sales survey moved consistently in line with the official core retail sales numbers, it would attract a good deal more attention in the markets. We appreciate that brick-and-mortar retailers are losing market share to online sellers, but the rate at which sales are moving to the web is quite steady and easy to accommodate when comparing the Redbook with the official data.

9 March 2017 ADP Report Raises the Chance of a Blockbuster February Jobs Number (Publication Centre)

We expected a consensus-beating ADP employment number for February, but the 298K leap was much better than our forecast, 210K. The error now becomes an input into our payroll model, shifting our estimate for tomorrow's official number to 250K; our initial forecast was 210K.

9 May 2017 Two Answers and Many Questions, as President Macron Settles in (Publication Centre)

Mr. Macron's victory in France answers two questions for markets, at least in the short run. Firstly, France will stay in the Eurozone, and Mr. Macron will not call a referendum on EU membership. Mr. Macron has come to power with a mandate to strengthen economic integration and co-operation between Eurozone economies.

9 May. 2016 Payrolls Will Rebound--Maybe not in May--and Wages Are Rising (Publication Centre)

The undershoot in April payrolls, relative to the consensus, is a story of a fluke number in just one sector. Retail payrolls reportedly shrank by 3K, after rising by an average of 52K over the previous six months. Our first chart shows clearly that the retail payrolls are quite volatile over short periods, with sudden and often inexplicable swings in both directions quite common.

9 Nov 2020 Expectations of an End to Furlough Likely Cost More Jobs in October (Publication Centre)

Tuesday's labour market report looks set to show that job losses continued to accumulate over the autumn, albeit at a measured pace.

9 June 2020 The Severity of the Recession will Keep Inflation Low in the Andes (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus outbreak has pushed inflation lower in the Andean economies as the shock drives them into the deepest recession on record.

9 July 2020 Expect Chaotic Auto Sales and Prices, but the Market is Improving (Publication Centre)

The immediate impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the auto market was calamitous.

9 Jan. 2015 - Expect Another Robust Payroll Report - Watch Hourly Wages Too (Publication Centre)

Most of the evidence points to a robust December employment report today, though we doubt the headline number will match the heights seen in November, when the initial estimate showed payrolls up 321K. We look for 275K.

9 Jan 2020 Mortgage Demand Still Rising, Home Price Gains Set to Pick Up (Publication Centre)

The reported drop in mortgage applications over the holidays is now reversing, not that it ever mattered.

9 January 2017 Wage Growth is Emerging as a Clear and Present Inflation Threat (Publication Centre)

December's payroll numbers were unexciting, exactly matching the 175K consensus when the 19K upward revision to November is taken into account. Some of the details were a bit odd, though, notably the 63K jump in healthcare jobs, well above the 40K trend, and the 19K drop in temporary workers, compared to the typical 15K monthly gain.

9 January 2018 Small Business Owners are Happy, so Why are Capex Plans Soft? (Publication Centre)

We already know that the month-to-month movements in the key labor market components of the December NFIB small business survey were mixed; the data were released last week, ahead the official employment report, as usual.

9 July 2018 China's PMI Points to Q2 Strength, but Watch Slump in Export Orders (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI slipped in June, but the overall picture for Q2 is sound despite the uncertainty posed by rising trade tensions with the U.S.

9 Nov 2020 Inflation Edged Higher in Brazil, but Remains at a Comfortable Rate (Publication Centre)

Inflation data for Brazil released on Friday surprised to the upside once again, driven by the effect of the reopening of the economy and food-related pressures as external demand increases.

9 Oct 2020 An Update on EU Fiscal Stimulus, the Recovery Fund Faces Delay (Publication Centre)

On the surface, the EU's joint stimulus efforts are progressing nicely.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

BoJ programmes are propping up M2 growth; Japan's machine tool orders tumble will get worse before better

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Mr. Trump's partial U-turn on September tariffs shows some semblance of an understanding of reality...that's a good thing. China's industrial production crushes June hopes of a swift recovery. Chinese consumers struggle. Chinese FAI: the infrastructure industry growth slowdown is especially worrying. Japan's strong core machine orders rebound in June probably faded in recent weeks. Korea's jobless rate will soon creep back up after remaining steady in July.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16th October 2020 (Publication Centre)

The sheen is taken off Korea's fluky August jobs report.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan most exposed workers felt the early Covid-19 hit in March.

U.S. Datanote: Employment, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid; AHE hit be calendar quirks and will rebound.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's monetary and credit trends were looking better, but now stand to be damaged by... the virus scare. Virus hit still to come for Japanese machine tool orders? Korea's jobless rate is back to its pre-August one-off plunge.

9 Sept 2020 Rebounding Home Prices Likely will Push CPI Rent Inflation Back up (Publication Centre)

The remarkable surge in both new and existing home sales in recent months already has pushed inventory down and prices up.

9 Oct 2020 The Second Wave of Layoffs Will Emerge in September's PAYE Data (Publication Centre)

Next week's labour market report likely will show that job cuts accelerated again, after a lull in the summer.

9 Oct 2020 Healthcare Services are Emerging as an Inflation Threat (Publication Centre)

Our comments on the inflation outlook over the last few months have focused mostly on the risk of continued mean-reversion in some of the components crushed by Covid, and the surge in used car prices, both of which remain real threats.

9 October 2018 Risks to the Consensus for August GDP Lie to the Upside (Publication Centre)

We expect August's GDP figures, released on Wednesday, to show that month-to-month growth slowed to 0.1%, from 0.3% in July.

9 October 2018 September Payrolls Hit by Florence (Publication Centre)

The dip in payroll growth in September was due to Hurricane Florence. We expect a clear rebound in payrolls in October; our tentative forecast is 250K.

9 Sept 2019 The Trade War is Hurting Payroll Growth will Slow Further (Publication Centre)

Payroll growth in September and October probably won't be materially worse than August's meager 96K increase in private jobs.

9 Feb. 2015 Labor Data Forcing the Fed Into a Corner - (Publication Centre)

It's always easy to find reasons to doubt single monthly observations of any economic time series, but our first chart makes it very clear that the labor market has strengthened markedly over the past few months. The underlying trend rate of growth in private payrolls is now above 300K for the first time in exactly 20 years, and we seen no reason to expect much change over the next few months.

9 Dec 2019 Japan's Fiscal Boost will Disappoint, Capacity Constraints are a Drag (Publication Centre)

In Friday's Monitor we analysed the draft Japanese budget, as reported by Bloomberg. We suggested that the GDP bang-for-government-expenditure- buck is likely to be less than that implied by the authorities' forecasts.

8 January 2018 The Labor Market is Still Tightening, Don't Fret over December Payrolls (Publication Centre)

We aren't perturbed by the undershoot in December payrolls, relative both to the October and November numbers and all the leading indicators.

8 Jan 2020 Improving External Conditions Add to Colombia's Economic Resilience (Publication Centre)

Colombia was the fastest growing LatAm economy in 2019, due mostly to strong domestic demand, offsetting a sharp fall in key exports.

8 July 2020 Watch Bank Lending, a Sustained Drop Would Trigger More QE (Publication Centre)

The stock of bank lending to businesses is on course to fall in June, after a modest increase in May and huge jumps in March and April.

8 July. 2016 June Payrolls Should be Better than May, but no Return to Trend Yet (Publication Centre)

We have had a modest rethink of our June payroll forecast and have nudged up our number to 150K, still below the 180K consensus. Our forecast has changed because we have re-estimated some of our models, not because of the 172K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls. ADP is a model-based estimate, not a reliable survey indicator.

8 June 2020 Payrolls Set to Rise Again in June, but Don't Expect a Quick Full Recovery (Publication Centre)

The single most surprising U.S. economic report ever published likely is explained very simply: We know a great deal about the numbers of people losing jobs, but not much about people finding jobs.

8 December 2017 Robust Jobs Data Will Emphasize the Labor Market's Tightness (Publication Centre)

We expect to see a 180K increase in November payrolls

8 August 2017 Watch the NFIB Survey for Clues to Job Growth, Capex and Inflation (Publication Centre)

The NFIB survey of small businesses today will show that July hiring intentions jumped by four points to +19, the highest level since November 2006. The NFIB survey has been running since 1973, and the hiring intentions index has never been sustained above 20.

7 Oct 2020 Capex Stabilizing in Mexico, Modest Inflation Pressures in the Andes (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirmed that investment in Mexico has been on the mend since June, but activity still remains depressed.

7 November 2018 No Sign of Slowing Labor Demand it's Rising Faster than Supply (Publication Centre)

The flow of data pointing to strength in the labor market has continued this week, on the heels of last week's report of a 250K jump in October payrolls.

7 Oct 2020 Stable Covid Numbers Alone won't Rescue the Economy (Publication Centre)

The daily number of confirmed new U.S. Covid-19 cases has leveled-off over the past couple weeks, and the rate of increase of hospitalizations has slowed appreciably.

7 September 2018 Brace for Soft Looking August Payroll and Hourly Earnings Data (Publication Centre)

In the wake of yesterday's ADP report, which showed private payrolls rising by only 163K, we have pulled down our forecast for today's official number to 170K.

8 Apr. 2016 How Far Will the Labor Share in GDP Rise? (Publication Centre)

As recently as late 2008, the share of employee compensation in GDP was slightly higher than the average for the previous 20 years. But it would be wrong to argue, therefore, that the squeeze on labor is a phenomenon only of the past few years. It's certainly true that labor's share dropped precipitously from 2009 through 2011, and has risen only marginally since then.

8 June. 2015 Expect more jobs reports like May's, piling pressure on the Fed (Publication Centre)

The winter hit to payrolls is now ancient history. Private employment rose by an average of 273K per month in the second half of last year, so May's 262K has restored normal service, more or less. History strongly suggests the number will be revised up, so we are happy to argue that the data convincingly support our view that the weakness in late winter and early spring was temporary, substantially due to the severe weather.

8 June. 2016 Job Openings Likely Dipped in April, but Remain Very High (Publication Centre)

A casual glance at our char t below, which shows the number of job openings from the JOLTS report, seems to fit our story that the slowdown in payrolls in April and May--perhaps triggered by the drop in stocks in January and February--will prove temporary. Job openings dipped, but have recovered and now stand very close to their cycle high.

9 Apr 2020 Special Report - Jobless Claims Likely Dipped Only Marginally Last Week, to 6.0M (Publication Centre)

We had hoped that the breathtaking doubling of initial jobless claims to 6.65M, in the week ended March 28, would be followed by a steep drop in the week ended April 4; the data will be released today.

8 Sept. 2015 No Loss of Momentum in August Employment, Despite Headline (Publication Centre)

The soft-looking August payroll number almost certainly will be revised up substantially, as the readings for this month have been in each of the past six years. Runs of remarkably consistent revisions--from 53K to 104K, with a median of 66K--don't happen by chance very often. A far more likely explanation is that the seasonal adjustments are flawed, having failed to keep up with changes in employment patterns since the crash. If the median revision is a good guide to what happens this year, the August number will be pushed up to 240K, in line with our estimate of the underlying trend and much more closely aligned with the message from a host of leading indicators.

9 April 2018 March Payrolls Don't Signal a Shift in the Trend, Expect 200K-plus in April (Publication Centre)

March payrolls were constrained by both the impact of colder and snowier weather than usual in the survey week, and a correction in the construction and retail components, which were unsustainably strong in February.

9 April 2019 Small Business Sentiment Ought to be Rebounding Capex Plans too (Publication Centre)

The recovery in small business sentiment since the fourth quarter rollover has been extremely modest, so far.

9 Dec 2019 Fluke or Real? Don't Leap to Conclusions Either Way, Yet (Publication Centre)

We have two competing explanations for the unexpected leap in November payrolls. First, it was a fluke, so it will either be revised down substantially, or will be followed by a hefty downside correction in December.

8 Sept 2020 Colombia's Inflation Will Remain Low in Q4 due to Weak Demand (Publication Centre)

CPI data in Colombia released on Saturday confirmed that inflation is well under control, due to plunging domestic demand on the back of Covid, and despite the lagged effect of the COP depreciation earlier this year.

8 Oct 2020 National Jobless Claims Falling Slowly, but Fear a Winter Covid Wave (Publication Centre)

The jobless claims numbers today are a bit of a wild card.

8 March 2019 Payrolls Constrained by Reversals of Weather and Shutdown Boosts (Publication Centre)

Our below-consensus 125K forecast for today's February payroll number is predicated on two ideas.

8 March 2018 Labor Demand Remains Strong, Can Supply Keep Up? (Publication Centre)

ADP's report of a 235K increase in private payrolls in February is not definitive evidence of anything, but it is consistent with the idea that labor demand remains very strong.

8 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil Supports a Dovish BCB, Mexican Capex Rebounded (Publication Centre)

Headline inflation in Brazil remained low in October, and even breached the lower bound of the BCB's target range.

8 November 2018 Fed on Hold Today, but Zero Real Rates won't Slow the Labor Market (Publication Centre)

The Fed today will do nothing to rates and won't materially change the language of the post-meeting statement.

8 Oct 2019 No Need for Households' Saving Rate to Rise Further (Publication Centre)

National accounts data released last week rewrote the recent history of households' saving.

5 Oct 2020 Don't Bank on a Continuation of Japan's Spending Rebound in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The release of pent-up consumer demand in Japan has been rocky, following the end of the nationwide state of emergency in May. Retail sales values rose by 4.6% month-on-month in August, albeit following a 3.4% correction in the previous month.

5 Oct 2020 Data Confirm the Recovery in Brazil is on Track, but Momentum is Fading (Publication Centre)

Brazil's Q3 hard data have confirmed that the economy is recovering from the Corona shock, as economic activity resumes. But some indicators are losing momentum, and the labour market is still struggling, suggesting a long and bumpy road to full recovery.

31 Jan 2020 EZ Core Inflation is Set to Drop More than Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that German inflation roared higher at the start of the year, but the devil is in the detail.

31 August. 2015 Fed Officials All Over the Map, But September Still Looks Unlikely (Publication Centre)

FOMC members in fleeces took to the airwaves en masse on Friday morning from Jackson Hole, but most said pretty much what you'd expect them to say. Arch-hawks Loretta Mester and no-quite-so-hawkish Jim Bullard strongly suggested that they think the time to raise rates is very near, while super-dove Naryana Kocherlakota said he doesn't regard a near-term hike as "appropriate". No surprises there.

31 Jan 2020 Ignore Korea's Upbeat Surveys: a Coronavirus Hit is Looming (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea's two main monthly economic surveys were very perky in January.

31 Jan 2020 Services Output Supported a Weakening Mexican Economy in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of full-year 2019 GDP in Mexico confirmed that growth was extremely poor, due to domestic and external shocks.

31 January 2018 Japan's Labour Market Squeeze is set to Intensify Further (Publication Centre)

Japan's headline jobless rate edged up to 2.8% in December, from 2.7% in November, but the increase was negligible, with the rate moving to 2.76% from 2.74%.

31 August 2018 Did Eurozone Core Inflation Decline Slightly in August (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance CPI data in Germany suggest that inflation fell slightly in August.

30 Sept 2019 Brazil's Labour Market Recovery Is Gathering Pace Q4 will Be Better (Publication Centre)

Economic data released last week underscored that Brazil's economic recovery is continuing; the effect of recent bold rate cuts and improving domestic fundamentals will further support the gradual recovery of the labour market.

30 Oct 2020 More QE is Coming in December (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting conformed to the consensus and our own expectations. The central bank left its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged, at 0.00% and -0.5% respectively, and also maintained the pace and level of its QE programs.

30 Oct 2019 Will the Pension Reform Bring Back the Yellow Vests in France (Publication Centre)

French consumer confidence and consumption have been among the main bright spots in the euro area economy so far this year.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages? (Publication Centre)

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

30 October 2017 A Year from now, the Fed Will be Tightening, with More to Come (Publication Centre)

Cast your mind forward to late October 2018. The Fed is preparing to meet next week. What will the economy look like? The key number is three.

30 October 2017 New Elections in Catalonia Beckon as Madrid Activates Article 155 (Publication Centre)

The headlines from Catalonia are as confusing as ever, but we are sticking to our view--see here--that regional elections are the only reasonable outcome of the chaos.

31 January 2019 Japanese Retail Sales Demand a Q4 Private Consumption Upgrade (Publication Centre)

The value of Japanese retail sales bounced back strongly in December, rising 0.9% month-on-month, after a 1.1% drop in November.

31 July 2020 Covid-19 Brought Mexico's Economy to its Knees, and the Outlook is Grim (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q2 GDP in Mexico confirmed that the economy has been under severe stress in recent months.

4 Aug 2020 Chile's Economic Recovery Started Strongly in June, Despite the Virus (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days confirmed the intensity of the Covid-related shock to the Chilean economy in Q2.

4 Apr. Britain is Living Beyond its Means, Once Again (Publication Centre)

The clear message from the fourth quarter's national accounts, released last week, is that the economic recovery rests on unsustainable foundations. The U.K. has returned to bad habits and is financing expenditure today by borrowing. As this undermines future spending, it is only a matter of time before the U.K.'s recovery loses steam.

4 Aug 2020 Manufacturing is Recovering, but it has not Recovered (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, sustained ISM manufacturing readings around the July level, 54.2, would be consistent with GDP growth of about 2% year-over-year.

4 Aug 2020 Rising Covid-19 Infections Signal no Further Net Reopening (Publication Centre)

The continued gradual rise in new confirmed cases of Covid-19 lends more weight to the idea that the economy already has reopened as much as possible while containing the virus.

4 Dec 2019 GDP Growth Will Rise in Brazil Next Year, but External Risk is Looming (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirm that Brazil's recovery has continued over the second half of the year, supported by steady capex growth and rebounding household consumption.

31 October 2018 The October ADP will be Constrained by the Soft September Payroll Data (Publication Centre)

Today's October ADP measure of private payrolls likely will overshoot Friday's official number.

31 October 2017 EZ GDP Growth Slowed in Q3, but Trend is Steady at About 2% (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data kicked off the release of Eurozone Q3 growth numbers with a robust Spanish headline. Real GDP in Spain rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, slowing slightly from 0.9% in Q2, and le aving the year-over-year rate unchanged at 3.1%.

31 July 2020 Q3 Growth Could be as High as 25%, but Payrolls won't Play Along (Publication Centre)

The only significant surprise in the terrible second quarter GDP numbers was the 2.7% increase in government spending, led by near-40% leap in the federal nondefense component.

31 July 2020 Every Employment Indicator is Continuing to Glow Bright Red (Publication Centre)

We remain concerned that huge job losses are imminent, slowing the economic recovery after a mid-summer spurt.

31 Mar 2020 Covid-19 Brings More Economic Pain for Argentina, and Bondholders (Publication Centre)

The virus outbreak has been relatively limited so far in Argentina, with 820 confirmed cases, but the numbers are rising rapidly.

31 May 2017 Eurozone Core Inflation Likely will Undershoot the Consensus Today (Publication Centre)

Today's advance EZ CPI report likely will show that inflation pressures eased in May. We think inflation slipped to 1.5% year-over-year, from 1.9% in April, as the boost to the core rate from the late Easter faded.

31 May 2019 The Economy Won't Be Knocked Off Course by Rising Household Saving (Publication Centre)

Households' willingness to save a smaller fraction of their incomes goes a long way to explaining why the U.K. economy hasn't lost too much momentum since the Brexit vote.

30 Oct 2019 The Fed will Ease Today, but will Signal a Pause Unless Growth Tanks (Publication Centre)

The stage is set for the Fed to ease by 25bp today, but to signal that further reductions in the funds rate would require a meaningful deterioration in the outlook for growth or unexpected downward pressure on inflation.

30 Oct 2019 Copom to Cut Further, Politics Allows some Room for Manoeuvre (Publication Centre)

The news in Brazil on inflation and politics has been relatively positive in recent weeks, allowing policymakers to keep cutting interest rates to boost the stuttering recovery.

30 Aug 2019 More Cheery Data in France, but the German Numbers Look Grim (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic news in the French economy was solid.

30 April 2018 Q1 Slowdown Confirmed in the EZ, but Don't Push the Panic Button (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance GDP data provided the first solid evidence of a Q1 slowdown in the euro area economy.

30 August 2017 ADP Looks set to Report Another Solid Gain in Payrolls (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a hefty increase in private payrolls in today's August ADP employment report. ADP's number is generated by a model which incorporates macroeconomic statistics and lagged official payroll data, as well as information collected from firms which use ADP's payroll processing services.

30 Jan 2020 Coronavirus Raises the Risks of a Technical Recession in Japan (Publication Centre)

Japan is one of the countries most exposed to economic damage from the coronavirus.

30 Jan 2020 Don't Panic Over the Slump in EZ M3 Growth, M1 Still Looks Firm (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the euro area were mixed.

3 September 2018 China's PMIs Point to Tariff Pain, and Only Minimal PPI Inflation Slowdown (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs were little changed in August, with the manufacturing gauge up trivially to 51.3, from 51.2 in July and the non-manufacturing gauge up to 54.2, from 54.0.

3 Sep 2020 Follow the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE to see Underlying Inflation (Publication Centre)

The wild gyrations in the core inflation numbers in recent months have made it hard to keep track of the underlying story.

3 May 2019 Expect Solid April Payrolls, but Downside Risk for Hourly Wages (Publication Centre)

A robust April payroll number today is a good bet, but a gain in line with the 275K ADP reading probably is out of reach.

3 May 2019 Andean Central Bank's Dovish Tone to Continue In Coming Meetings (Publication Centre)

Inflation and growth paths remain diverse across LatAm, but in the Andes, the broad picture is one of modest inflationary pressures and gradual economic recovery.

3 November 2017 Brazilian Manufacturing Continued to Support the Recovery in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector continued to support the economy in Q3. The underlying tr end in output is rising and leading indicators point to further growth in the near term.

3 November 2017 The MPC Signals no Rush to Hike Rates Again (Publication Centre)

Markets were surprised yesterday by the absence of hawkish comments or guidance accompanying the MPC's decision to raise interest rates to 0.50%, from 0.25%.

3 October 2017 EZ Manufacturing is Helping to Propel the Cyclical Upturn (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in the Eurozone remained a strong driver of GDP growth in the third quarter. The headline EZ manufacturing PMI rose to 58.1 in September, from 57.4 in August, only a tenth below the initial estimate 58.2.

30 Jan 2020 The Chancellor's GDP Growth Target is Practically Unachievable (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Javid told the Financial Times earlier this month that he wants to lift the rate of GDP growth to between 2.7% and 2.8%, the average rate in the 50 years following the Second World War.

30 Jan. 2015 Leading indicators are sending a clear signal of higher GDP growth ahead (Publication Centre)

Money supply data in the euro area are sending an increasingly upbeat signal on the economy. The increase in narrow money growth is the key variable here, now pointing to a noticeable acceleration in GDP growth later this year. Allowing for the usual lags between upturns in M1 and the economy, we should start to see this in the second and third quarter.

30 November 2018 EZ Inflation Likely Fell More than Markets Expected in November (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's November inflation reports from Germany and Spain suggest that today's data for the Eurozone as a whole will undershoot the consensus.

30 November 2017 Japanese Retail Sales Disappoint but Confidence Rebounds (Publication Centre)

Japanese retail sales were unchanged in October month-on-month, after a 0.8% rise in September.

30 November 2018 Will AMLO Make a Defiant "Mexico First" Inauguration Pledge (Publication Centre)

We have witnessed a dramatic shift in just a few weeks in perceptions of Mexico as an investment destination.

30 November. 2016 Brazilian Political Risk is Rising, But Won't Derail the Fiscal Adjustment (Publication Centre)

Political volatility is a recurrent theme in Brazil. Six members of President Michel Temer's cabinet resigned last Friday due to allegations of conflict of interest on a construction deal. Rumours that President Temer was involved in the affair stirred up market volatility and revived political risk concerns

30 Oct 2019 BoJ Forecasts Due for a Downgrade, Expect a Package of Measures (Publication Centre)

Markets see a strong possibility, though not a probability, that the BoJ will cut rates on Thursday.

30 May 2019 The German Labour Market Finally Realises that Growth has Slowed (Publication Centre)

Reporting on the German labour market has been like watching paint dry in this expansion, but yesterday's data were a stark exception to this rule.

30 May 2019 More Pain Before the Gain Will Markets Force Trump to the Table (Publication Centre)

The trade war with China is not big enough or bad enough alone to push the U.S. economy into recession.

30 July. 2015 Ignore Volatile Commodity Prices, and Focus on Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Volatile commodity prices make this week's inflation data in Germany and the Eurozone a wild card. Crude oil in euro terms is down about 20% month-to-month in July, which will weigh on energy prices. In Germany, though, we think higher core inflation offset the hit from oil, pushing inflation slightly higher to 0.4% year-over-year in July from 0.3% in June.

30 January 2017 Real M1 Indicates a Solid Start to 2017, but What Happens Next? (Publication Centre)

The business cycle upturn in the Eurozone likely will remain resilient in the first half of 2017. Friday's money supply data showed that headline M3 growth increased to 5.0% in December, from 4.9% in November.

30 June 2017 Core PCE Inflation set to Fall Again, but it won't Sway the Fed (Publication Centre)

We have argued recently that the year-over-year rates of core CPI and core PCE inflation could cross over the next year, with core PCE rising more quickly for the first time since 2010.

30 May 2017 Why Don't Markets Take the Fed's Interest Rate Forecasts Seriously? (Publication Centre)

Markets expect the Fed will fail to follow through on its current intention to raise rates twice more this year and three times next year. Part of this skepticism reflects recent experience.

30 May 2019 China's Manufacturing PMIs will Give the First Hint of Trade War Hit (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI for May, out tomorrow, will give the first indication of the coming hit from the resumption of its tariff war with the U.S.

4 Dec. 2015 November Labor Data Will Support Yellen's Case for Hiking (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to see November payrolls up by about 200K this morning, but our forecast takes into account the likelihood that the initial reading will be revised up. In the five years through 2014, the first estimate of November payrolls was revised up by an average of 73K by the time o f the third estimate. Our forecast for today, therefore, is consistent with our view that the underlying trend in payrolls is 250K-plus. That's the message of the very low level of jobless claims, and the strength of all surveys of hiring, with the exception of the depressed ISM manufacturing employment index. Manufacturing accounts for only 9% of payrolls, though, so this just doesn't matter.

4 December 2017 Hefty Tax Cuts at Full Employment Make no Sense, but they're Coming (Publication Centre)

It's not our job to pontificate on the merits, or otherwise, of the tax cut bill from a political perspective.

5 Feb 2020 A Poor Finish to 2019 for Brazil's Industry, COPOM to Cut Rates (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed that the recovery was stuttering at the end of last year.

5 December 2018 China and U.S. Agree a Truce Exports Still Face Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Data last Friday showed Japan's labour market trends deteriorating.

5 Feb 2020 ADP Likely to Report Strong Job Growth in January (Publication Centre)

Our composite index of employment indicators, based on survey data and the official JOLTS report, looks ahead about three months.

5 Feb 2020 BoJ Reaction to the Coronavirus Could Damage Activity, Perversely (Publication Centre)

We've previously highlighted the pro-cyclical elements of the BoJ's framework, but it's worth repeating, when an economic shock comes along.

5 July 2019 Payrolls Set to Rebound, but not Boom, Wage Gains Back on Track? (Publication Centre)

We expect to see a 160K increase in June payrolls today, though uncertainty over the extent of the rebound after June's modest 75K increase means that all payroll forecasts should be viewed with even more skepticism than usual.

22 July 2020 The Recovery in Existing Home Sales is Underway, More to Come (Publication Centre)

We remain very bullish on the housing market, given sustained 11-year highs in applications for new mortgages to finance house purchase.

5 Aug 2020 Upside Risk for ADP Today, but the Uncertainty is Great (Publication Centre)

The advance indicators of July payrolls are wildly contradictory, so you should be prepared for anything from a consensus-busting jump to a renewed outright drop, in both Friday's official numbers and today's ADP report.

5 January 2017 Payroll Indicators are Rebounding (Publication Centre)

Most of the leading indicators of payroll growth have rebounded in recent months, with the exception of the Help Wanted Online. Our first chart shows that the NFIB's measure of hiring intentions and the ISM non-manufacturing employment index have returned to their cycle highs, while the manufacturing employment index has risen substantially from its late 2015 low. The Help Wanted Online remains very weak, but it might have been depressed by increased prices for job postings on Craigslist.

4 September 2018 Colombia's Recovery Continues, and the Fundamentals are Sound (Publication Centre)

Activity data from Colombia over the past quarter have been strong. Real GDP expanded by a relatively robust 2.8% year-over-year in Q2, and is on track to post a 3.2% increase in Q3.

5 April 2018 Dip in EZ goods inflation is temporary...we hope (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in the Eurozone edged higher last month, reversing weakness at the start of the year.

5 Aug 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Showing Solid Signs of Gradual Stabilization (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in Brazil underscored that the Covid-related shock on the industrial sector is finally easing, as the economy gradually reopens.

5 Aug 2020 Mortgage Refinancing will Support Incomes Immaterially This Year (Publication Centre)

The economy will endure a sluggish recovery from Covid-19 this year, even if a second wave of the virus is avoided, partly because monetary stimulus is not filtering through powerfully to households.

5 June 2017 May Payrolls Hit by the Calendar, Expect a Rebound, and a Fed Hike (Publication Centre)

We don't believe that payrolls rose only 138K in May. History strongly suggests that when the May payroll survey is conducted relatively early in the month, payroll growth falls short of the prior trend.

5 June 2019 EZ Inflation will Fall Further in Q3 but the Core Rate will Rebound (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone tumbled last month, increasing the pressure on Mr. Draghi to deliver another dovish message when the central bank meets on Thursday.

5 May 2020 Core Inflation is Set to Fall, but not Every Component will Drop (Publication Centre)

We're very comfortable with the idea that the coronavirus is a broad deflationary shock to the U.S. economy.

5 May 2020 Chile Shows First Signs of the Covid-19 Hit, More Pain to Come (Publication Centre)

The recent March economic activity reports for Chile have been terrible, showing the first signs of the Covid-19 shock, and worse is to come.

5 May 2020 Covid Outbreak Over, but no Signs of a Turnaround in Korean Surveys (Publication Centre)

Korea's manufacturing PMI fell for a fourth straight month in April, dropping to 41.6, which is the lowest reading since January 2009.

5 May 2020 Money Data Highlight Bounce-back Potential Once the Virus Ends (Publication Centre)

The surge in the broad money supply in March, as the U.K.'s lockdown began, suggests that businesses are in relatively good shape to survive a multi-month period of greatly depressed demand.

5 November 2018 Labor Demand is Enough for 200K+ Job Gains Can Supply Keep Up (Publication Centre)

The headline 250K October payroll number looked great.

5 May 2017 Payrolls Should Rebound to More than 200K, Wage Gains up too? (Publication Centre)

If the underlying trend in payroll growth is about 200K, then a weather-depressed 98K reading needs to be followed by a rebound of about 300K in order fully to reverse the hit. But the consensus for today's April number is only 190K, and our forecast is 225K.

5 March 2019 The PPI is the Final Shoe to Drop in the EZ from Chinese Weakness (Publication Centre)

The economic slowdown in China is old news for Eurozone investors.

5 June 2019 The Fed will Ease if Trade Makes the Sky Fall in Otherwise, Patience (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell yesterday said about as little as he could without appearing to ignore the turmoil in markets since the President announced his intention to apply tariffs to imports from Mexico: "We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective."

5 June 2019 Good Economic and Political News in Brazil Is the Outlook Improving (Publication Centre)

The week started well for Brazil's President Bolsonaro.

5 June. 2015 Payroll consensus looks low, but watch out for the birth death model (Publication Centre)

All the fundamentals point to a very strong payroll number for May. The NFIB hiring in tentions index, the best single leading indicator of payrolls five months ahead, signalled back in December that May employment would rise by about 300K. The NFIB actual net hiring number, released yesterday, is a bit less bullish, implying 250K, but the extraordinarily low level of jobless claims, shown in our first chart, points to 300K. Finally, the ISM non-manufacturing employment index suggests we should be looking for payrolls to rise by about 260K. Our estimate is 280K.

5 Mar 2020 ADP Likely Overstates February Payrolls, but Everything will Change (Publication Centre)

The comforting 183K increase in February private payrolls reported by ADP yesterday likely overstates tomorrow's official number.

5 Mar 2020 How far Will EZ Services Fall, and Will it Cause a Recession (Publication Centre)

It will take a while for the economic data in the euro area fully to reflect the Covid-19 shock, but the incoming numbers paint an increasingly clear picture of an improving economy going into the outbreak.

4 September 2017 Will the Economy be Hit by a Snap Back in Households' Saving Ratio? (Publication Centre)

Households' decision to reduce their saving rate sharply was the main reason why economic growth exceeded forecasters' expectations in the aftermath of the Brexit vote.

4 Sep 2020 Downside Risk for August Payrolls, September Likely Weaker Still (Publication Centre)

Two approaches to forecasting payrolls have been the most useful in recent months, and both point to August payrolls rising by less than the 1,350K consensus; our forecast is 750K.

4 June 2018 The Labor Market Continues to Tighten, No end in Sight (Publication Centre)

The May employment report was somewhat overshadowed by the furor over the president's tweet, at 7.15AM, hinting--more than hinting--that the numbers would be good.

4 July 2017 Why Hasn't EZ Industrial Output Responded to the PMIs? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI data confirmed that the EZ manufacturing sector is in rude health. The manufacturing PMI in the euro area rose to a cyclical high of 57.4 in June, from 57.0 in May, slightly above the first estimate. New orders and output growth are robust, pushing work backlogs higher and helping to sustain employment growth.

4 June 2019 Dark Clouds Still Linger Over Manufacturing in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The most positive thing to say about the EZ manufacturing PMI at the moment is that it has stopped falling.

4 June 2019 The Official PMI has it Right Tariff hit has Derailed China's Trade Recovery (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI was steady in May, at 50.2, in contrast to the official gauge published on Friday, which dropped to 49.5, from April's 50.2.

4 June 2020 ADP Suggests Re-hiring Took Off as Soon as Reopening Began (Publication Centre)

The unexpectedly small 2,760K drop in the ADP measure of May private payrolls is consistent, at least, with the idea that the partial reopening of several states in the early part of the month prompted an immediate wave of rehiring.

4 July 2017 BanRep Speeds up Rate Cuts, Expect Further Stimulus this Month (Publication Centre)

BanRep accelerated the pace of easing last Friday, cutting Colombia's key interest rate by a bold 50 basis points, to 5.75%. Economic activity has been under severe pressure in recent months. The economy expanded by only 1.1% year-over-year in Q1, following an already weak 1.6% in Q4.

4 January 2019 December Payrolls Look Set for Hefty Gain, but Downside AHE Risk (Publication Centre)

Today's December payroll number was a tricky call even before yesterday's remarkably strong ADP report, showing private payrolls soaring by 271K.

4 February 2019 Brazil's Q4 Industrial Weakness was Offset by Robust Consumption (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production and labour reports, released late last week, confirmed that the recovery was struggling at the end of last year.

4 Feb 2020 Consumer Fundamentals Will Support Spending, Look at Redbook (Publication Centre)

The fundamentals underpinning our forecast of solid first half growth in consumers' spending remain robust.

4 February 2019 Unboxing--and Making Sense--of the Collapse in China's Caixin PMI (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI for January was grim, indicating that China's start to the year wasn't as benign as the official surveys suggested.

4 January 2017 Surging EZ Inflation will Comfortably Beat the Consensus Today (Publication Centre)

German inflation surged in December, pointing to an upside surprise in today's advance EZ report. The headline inflation rate rose to a three-year high of 1.7% year-over-year in December, from 0.8% in November. This was the biggest increase in the year- over-year rate since 1993.

4 January 2018 ADP Likely Will Show a Solid Gain in December Private Employment (Publication Centre)

Today's ADP employment report for December ought to show private payrolls continue to rise at a very solid pace

4 June 2020 The ECB will both Boost and Extend the PEPP Today (Publication Centre)

The ECB will leave its key refinancing and deposit rates unchanged today, at 0.00% and 0.5%, respectively, but we are confident that the central bank will expand its existing stimulus efforts via a boost and extension of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program.

4 Mar 2020 More to Come from the Fed, but Fiscal Policy has to Step Up too (Publication Centre)

We aren't in the business of trying to divine the explanation for every twist and turn in the stock market at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.

4 Nov 2019 The Jobs Outlook is Deteriorating Despite the Solid October, ex-GM (Publication Centre)

The unexpectedly robust 128K increase in October payrolls--about 175K when the GM strikers are added back in--and the 98K aggregate upward revision to August and September change our picture of the labor market in the late summer and early fall.

4 Nov 2019 Korea's Export Slump has Bottomed Out... Global Trade will Follow Suit (Publication Centre)

The downturn in global trade looks set to turn a corner, at least judging by the outlook for Korean exports, which are a key bellwether.

4 Nov 2019 Brazil's Industrial Sector Improved in Q3, Colombia's Economy is Strong (Publication Centre)

Thursday and Friday were busy days for LatAm economy watchers. In Brazil, the data underscored our view that the economy is on the mend, but the recent upturn remains shaky, and external risks are still high.

4 Nov 2020 Chile's Economic Activity Rebounded in Q3, but Uncertainty Remains High (Publication Centre)

Economic conditions are improving rapidly in Chile, in line with the relatively strong IMACEC reading for Q3 and upbeat leading indicators. This supports our case for interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future.

4 Oct 2019 Don't be Fooled by Good September Payrolls the Trend is Slowing Sharply (Publication Centre)

We look for a 150K increase in September payrolls, rather better than the August 130K headline number, which was flattered by a 28K increase in federal government jobs, likely due to hiring for the 2020 Census.

4 May 2020 Data are Starting to Show the Shock of Covid-19, Q2 will be a Write-off (Publication Centre)

LatAm data in recent days have confirmed that efforts to contain the coronavirus, plunging global trade, and the collapse in oil prices, are dealing a severe economic and financial blow.

4 May 2018 April Payrolls Likely Were Solid, but is Trouble Brewing for late Spring? (Publication Centre)

April payroll growth likely will be reported at close to 200K. Overall, the survey evidence points to a stronger performance, but they don't take account of weather effects, and April was a bit colder and snowier than usual. We're not expecting a big weather hit, but some impact seems a reasonable bet.

4 March 2019 Does the Flatter Phillips Curve Mean the Next Downturn will be Severe (Publication Centre)

Investors focussed last week on Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony, but he said nothing much new.

4 Mar 2020 The Policy Put is Alive and Well, the ECB will Follow the Fed (Publication Centre)

Markets were left somewhat disappointed yesterday by the G7 statement that central banks and finance ministers stand ready "to use all appropriate policy tools to achieve strong, sustainable growth and safeguard against downside risks."

4 March 2019 No Light at the End of the Tunnel for Japan's Softening Labour Market (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate inched up to 2.5% in January, from 2.4% in December.

4 March 2019 The EZ Core CPI Rate Remains Motionless at About 1% (Publication Centre)

Last week's final barrage of data showed that EZ headline inflation rose slightly last month, by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5%, driven mainly by increases in the unprocessed food energy components.

4 May 2017 Strong Q1 GDP Data in the EZ, but the Annualised Trend is not 2% (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone enjoyed a strong start to 2017. Yesterday's advance data showed that real GDP rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, a similar pace to Q4, which was revised up by 0.1 percentage points. The year-over-year rate dipped to 1.7%, from an upwardly revised 1.8% in Q4.

3 March 2017 EZ Inflation Hit by Perfect Storm in Q1, Headline Will Ease in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in the Eurozone are building rapidly, setting up an "interesting" ECB meeting next week. Yesterday's advance CPI report showed that inflation edged up further in February to 2.0%, from 1.8% in January. The headline rate is now in line with the ECB's target, and up sharply from the average of 0.2% last year.

2 Jan 2020 China's PMIs Highlight Weakening Non-manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 50.2 in December, marking a weak end to the year. But it could have been worse; we had been worried that the return to above-50 territory in November had been boosted by temporary factors. December's print allays some of those fears.

12 Nov 2019 If Trump Chooses to Take the Deal, The Economy will Benefit Quickly (Publication Centre)

If the Phase One trade deal with China is completed, and is accompanied by a significant tariff roll-back, we'll revise up our growth forecasts, but we'll probably lower our near-term inflation forecasts, assuming that the tariff reductions are focused on consumer goods.

12 Nov 2019 China's October Money Data Mean a 2020 GDP Growth Downgrade (Publication Centre)

We have downgraded our 2019 and 2020 China GDP forecasts on previous occasions because monetary conditions have been surprisingly unresponsive to lower short-term rates.

12 Nov 2019 The Downside Surprise from Q3 GDP has a Silver Lining (Publication Centre)

The headline figures from yesterday's GDP report gave a bad impression. September's 0.1% month-to- month decline in GDP matched the consensus and primarily reflected mean-reversion in car production and car sales, which both picked up in August.

12 Nov. 2015 Slight Weakening in Wage Growth Won't Delay the MPC (Publication Centre)

Markets were right to conclude that September's slightly weaker average weekly wage figures will have little impact on the MPC's decision on when to raise official interest rates. Fundamentally, wage pressures are building and likely will contribute to pushing CPI inflation back to its 2% target towards the end of 2016.

12 October 2017 Core PPI at Risk from Hurricanes. Trend is Rising too, Slowly (Publication Centre)

Our forecast for a 0.3% increase in the September core PPI, slightly above the underlying trend, is even more tentative than usual.

12 May. 2015 Small firms in better shape than NFIB suggests - Rebound due (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, small business have taken quite a hit over the past few months. The headline index from the NFIB survey of small businesses has dropped to a nine-month low of 95.2 in March from 100.4 in December. As a result, the gap between the NFIB and the ISM manufacturing indexes, which had been narrowing, has widened again.

12 May 2020 What's to Become of EZ GDP With a Hamstrung Services Sector (Publication Centre)

All major EZ governments are now in the process of lifting lockdowns, but investors should expect less a grand opening, more of a careful tip-toeing.

12 June 2020 Rising Covid Hospitalizations in the South are About Spread, not Testing (Publication Centre)

We have drawn attention over the past couple of weeks in our daily Coronavirus Update to the rising trend in new cases in some states, mostly in the South.

12 June 2020 Brazil's Inflation is in Check, but the Pandemic at Large is a Risk (Publication Centre)

Brazilian political risk remains high, due mainly to President Bolsonaro's gross mismanagement of the Covid-19 crisis, but, as we have argued in previous Monitors, it is unlikely to deter policymakers from further near-term monetary easing.

12 Mar 2020 China's Money and Credit Data Show No Room for Complacency (Publication Centre)

China's money and credit data for February were reassuring, at least when compared with the doomsday scenario painted, so far, by other key indicators for last month.

12 March 2018 As Good as it Gets, Provided Participation Keeps Rising (Publication Centre)

It's hard to find anything to dislike in the February employment report.

12 May 2020 India's PMIs Show Lockdown Severity, but New Flexibility will Help (Publication Centre)

India's shocking PMIs for April leave little doubt that the second quarter will be bad enough to result in a full-year contraction in 2020 GDP, even if economic activity recovers strongly in the second half.

12 October. 2016 How Hard Did FOMC Dissenters Push to Hike?  (Publication Centre)

Today's FOMC minutes will add flesh to the bones of the three dissents on September 21. The FOMC statement merely said that each of the three--Loretta Mester, Esther George and Eric Rosengren--preferred to raise rates by a quarter-point.

13 April 2017 Slowing Labour Income Growth Highlights Consumers' Woes (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's labour market data showed that growth in households' income has slowed significantly in recent months. Firms are both hiring cautiously and restraining wage increases, due to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook and rising raw material and non-wage labour costs. Consumers' spending, therefore, will support GDP growth to a far smaller extent this year than last.

13 Feb 2020 A Double-Dip Recession on the Menu for Italy's in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The fact that Italy's economy is in poor shape will not surprise anyone following the euro area, but the advance Q4 GDP headline was astonishingly poor all the same.

13 December 2018 China's November Activity Data are Set to Disappoint (Publication Centre)

China's October activity data showed signs of the infrastructure stimulus machine sputtering into life. Consensus expectations appear to hold out for a continuation into November, but we think the numbers will be disappointing.

13 Feb 2020 Japan's M2 Still Points to a Growth Slowdown, Regardless of the Virus (Publication Centre)

Japan's money and credit data have shown signs of life in recent months, but that's all set to change quickly, due to the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.

13 February 2017 Can French Investment Maintain Momentum in 2017? (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing cooled at the end of 2016. Industrial production slipped 0.9% month-to-month in December, partially reversing an upwardly revised 2.4% jump in November. The main hits came from declines in oil refining and manufacturing of cars and other transport equipment.

13 February 2018 Unit Labor Costs are Key to Inflation Outlook (Publication Centre)

Jim Bullard, the St. Louis Fed president, said last week that Phillips Curve effects in the U.S. are "weak", and that nominal wage growth is not a good predictor of future inflation.

13 Dec 2019 Japan's Machine Orders Hack a Hole in the Notion of Resilient Capex (Publication Centre)

We've been consistent in saying that Japanese capex would roll over this year, after strength in the first three quarters was seen by the authorities and many commentators as a sign of resilience.

13 Dec 2019 Brazil's Central Bank Leaves the Door Open to a Final Rate Cut in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian central bank cut its benchmark Selic interest rate by 50bp to 4.50% on Wednesday night.

13 Aug 2020 Solid EZ Manufacturing Data, but Still Far Off a Full Recovery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ industrial production report conformed to expectations.

13 Aug 2020 The Fastest Part of the Recovery in GDP Already Lies in the Past (Publication Centre)

The U.K. economy underperformed its peers to an extraordinary degree in Q2.

13 August 2018 Core Inflation won't Repeat the Jump of the Past Few Months (Publication Centre)

The jump in core inflation in recent months is about as alarming as the sudden decline in the same period last year; that is, not very.

13 August. 2015 More Soft-Looking Sales as Falling Prices Depress Nominal Activity? (Publication Centre)

Retail sales have consistently disappointed markets this year, but investors' concerns are misplaced. The rate of growth of core sales has slowed because the strength of the dollar has pushed down the prices of an array of imported consumer goods, and people appear to have spent a substantial proportion of the saving on services.

12 June 2019 Rising Wage Growth Bolsters the Case for Gradual Rate Hikes (Publication Centre)

The case for continuing to increase Bank Rate gradually--recently reiterated by MPC members Andy Haldane and Michael Saunders-- strengthened yesterday with the release of April's labour market report, which revealed renewed momentum in wage growth.

12 July 2017 Yellen Will Re-affirm Fed Policy. Expect no Revelations, or Dates (Publication Centre)

Chair Yellen has become quite good at not giving much away at her semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony.

11 Sept 2020 Upside Risk for the August CPI, Used Car Prices are the Key Threat (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the surprise 0.6% July surge in the core CPI, the biggest increase since January 1991--most forecasters look for mean reversion to 0.2% in today's August report.

11 Sept 2020 The MPC will Preserve the Option of Another QE Extension in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The MPC likely will steer clear of providing strong signals on the outlook for monetary policy at next week's meeting.

12 April 2018 China will Take a Breather from PPI Disinflation for a few Months (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation dropped again in March to 3.1%, from February's 3.7%. Commodities were the driver, but base effects should mean the headline rate won't fall further in coming months; it is more likely to rise in Q2.

12 Aug 2020 The Downturn in Employment is Only Half-way Complete (Publication Centre)

We continue to take little comfort from the small decline in the Labour Force Survey measure of employment in the first half of this year.

12 August. 2015 China's Devaluation Won't Deter the Fed, Or Wreck the Economy (Publication Centre)

China's 1.8% downshift in the RMB/dollar reference rate will make only a microscopic difference to the pace of U.S. economic growth and inflation. It will not deter the Fed from raising rates if the domestic labor market continues to tighten, as all the data suggest. The drop in the RMB merely restores the nominal exchange rate to its fall 2012 level, since which time the real exchange rate has risen by some 20%, according to the BIS.

11 October. 2016 Conditions Are Set for the BCB to Start Easing Next Week (Publication Centre)

The latest CPI data in Brazil confirm that inflationary pressures eased considerably last month. Inflation fell to 8.5% year-over-year in September, from 9.0% in August, as a result of both lower market- set and regulated inflation.

11 October 2017 JOLTS Data Signal Rapid Job Gains, and Tight Labor Supply (Publication Centre)

Today's JOLTS survey covers August, which seems like a long time ago. But the report is worth your attention nonetheless.

11 May 2020 The Labor Market is Worse than April's Headlines Suggest (Publication Centre)

Hideous though the official April payroll numbers were, the chances are that they'll be revised down.

11 May. 2016 Outside the Oil Sector, the NFIB Survey Points to Decent Capex (Publication Centre)

We're pretty sure our forecast of a levelling-off in capital spending in the oil sector will prove correct. Unless you think the U.S. oil business is going to disappear, capex has fallen so far already that it must now be approaching the incompressible minimum required for replacement parts and equipment needed to keep production going.

11 Nov 2019 Signs of Stabilisation in Chinese Trade, but don't Get too Excited (Publication Centre)

China's October foreign trade headlines beat expectations, but the year-over-year numbers remain grim, with imports falling 6.4%, only a modest improvement from the 8.5% tumble in September.

11 Nov 2019 Sharp Fall in CPI Inflation in October to Underline Below-Target Outlook (Publication Centre)

October's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation has continued to drift further below the 2% target

12 Dec 2019 China's Economic Targets will Remain a Political Affair for 2020 (Publication Centre)

China concludes its annual Central Economic Work Conference today, where the economic targets and the agenda for next year are set.

12 Dec 2019 The Fed is on Course to do Nothing for the Foreseeable Future (Publication Centre)

The FOMC did mostly what was expected yesterday, though we were a bit surprised that the single rate hike previously expected for next year has been abandoned.

12 February 2019 Is it Safe to Assume that the ECB Will be on Hold Through 2019 (Publication Centre)

Our suggestion that the ECB could still raise the deposit rate later this year, by 20bp to -0.4%, has met with strong scepticism in recent conversations with readers.

12 Feb. 2016 Collapse in Equity Prices Still Not a Convincing Signal of Recession (Publication Centre)

The downturn in equity prices deepened yesterday, with the FTSE 100 index closing at 5,537, 22% below its April 2015 peak. We remain unconvinced, however, that financial market turmoil is set to push the U.K. economy into a recession. We continue to take comfort from the weakness of the past relationship between equity prices and economic activity.

12 January 2018 Expectations Management in Germany After a Great 2017 (Publication Centre)

Economic data in the German economy have been record-breaking in the past 12 months, and yesterday's preliminary full-year GDP report for 2017 was no exception.

12 January 2018 Inflation in Brazil Ended 2017 Below the Target Range, 2018 Will be Fine (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil ended 2017 well under control, despite December's modest overshoot. This will allow the BCB to cut rates further in Q1 to underpin the economic recovery.

12 July 2017 Wage Growth Likely will Remain too "Anaemic" for the Governor this Year (Publication Centre)

Mark Carney emphasised in his Mansion House speech last month that he wants wage growth to "begin to firm" from recent "anaemic" rates before voting to raise interest rates.

12 Feb 2020 What on Earth Happened in the Spanish Economy in Q4 (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, the Spanish economy conformed to its image as the star performer in the EZ in Q4.

12 Feb 2020 How Much Spending will China's Retail Sector Lose this Year (Publication Centre)

In previous Monitors--see here--we've suggested that, thanks to the coronavirus, China simply will lose some of the spending that would have gone on during the holiday this year.

12 December 2016 German wage growth is accelerating (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that German wage growth is firming. Nominal labour costs rose 2.5% year-overyear in Q3, accelerating from a revised 1.9% increase in Q2. The main driver was a strong rebound in gross earnings growth, which rebounded to 2.4% year-over-year from an oddly weak 1.2% in Q2.

12 December 2018 Mexico's Leading Indicators Signal a Challenging Near-term Outlook (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy is not accelerating, but it is holding up very well in difficult circumstances, with rising domestic political risk and stifling interest rates.

12 December 2018 Is Britain now at the Steep Part of the Phillips Curve? (Publication Centre)

The sudden jump in the headline, three-month average, growth rate of average weekly wages to a 10-year high of 3.3% in October, from just 2.4% four months earlier, might indicate that the U.K. has reached the sharply upward-sloping part of the Phillips Curve.

12 December. 2016 Participation Won't Rise Enough to Prevent Higher Inflation (Publication Centre)

It appears to be something of an article of faith among economic advisors to President-elect Trump that substantial fiscal stimulus will generate faster growth without boosting inflation, because both labor participation and productivity growth will rise.

13 Jan 2020 Expect Stabilisation, not Recovery, in China's Q4 GDP Data This Week (Publication Centre)

China's GDP report for the fourth quarter, due on Friday, is likely to show that economic growth has stabilised, on the surface.

13 Jan 2020 Labor Market Strength Means no Need for the Fed to Ease this Year (Publication Centre)

Here's the bottom line: U.S. businesses appear to have over-reacted to the impact of the trade war in their responses to most surveys, pointing to a serious downturn in economic growth which has not materialized.

14 May 2020 GDP Likely Fell even Further in April than March Data Imply (Publication Centre)

We take little comfort from the fact that the 2.0% quarter-on-quarter drop in Q1 GDP was a bit smaller than the consensus forecast, 2.5%, and the 3.0% fall pencilled-in by the MPC in its Monetary Policy Report.

14 May 2018 Germany's Problem is Increasingly Clear: It has too Much Money (Publication Centre)

Germany's newly-appointed finance minister, Olaf Scholz, proudly announced earlier this month that his country would be running a budget surplus of €63B over the next four years--about 1.9% of GDP between now and 2022--some €14B more than initially estimated.

14 May 2020 Jobless Claims Likely Fell Again, but the Consensus Looks Ambitious (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to see the sixth straight drop in initial jobless claims this week, though we think the 2,500K consensus forecast is too ambitious.

14 Nov 2019 Don't Mistake Below-Target Inflation for Underlying Weakness (Publication Centre)

The fall in CPI inflation to just 1.5% in October-- its lowest rate since November 2016--from 1.7% in September, isn't a game-changer for the monetary policy outlook.

14 Nov 2019 Japan's PPI Underscores More Muted Impact of Tax Hike on Prices (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI data yesterday confirmed that October was a turning point for prices--due to the consumption tax hike--despite the surprising stability of CPI inflation in Tokyo for the same month.

14 June 2019 Wage Growth in the Eurozone Remains Strong... Just Sayin' (Publication Centre)

Last week's evidence of still-strong wage growth in the EZ at the start of the year almost surely has gone unnoticed as markets focus on the prospect of rate cuts, not to mention more QE, by the ECB.

14 June 2018 Four Dots for 2018, and a Hawkish Tilt in the Statement (Publication Centre)

The Fed was more hawkish than we expected yesterday.

14 January 2019 Après le Déluge, What Happens to Employment and Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Many economists describe the EZ as the sick man of the global economy, thanks to its incomplete monetary union, low productivity growth and a rapidly ageing population.

14 Jan 2020 Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target - 2020 will be Fine (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target; 2020 will be Fine

14 July 2020 PAYE Data to Show Employment Continued to Fall in June (Publication Centre)

We're bracing for another ugly set of labour market data on Thursday, showing that both employment and earnings fell sharply in May and June.

14 July 2020 The Downdraft in the Core CPI Likely is Over, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

We have no argument with the FOMC's view that the Covid crisis is a disinflationary event, but the run of three straight outright month-to-month declines in the core CPI likely came to an end in June.

14 June 2017 Fed to Stick to One More 2017 Hike After Today, and Three More in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The Fed will hike by 25 basis points today, but what really matters is what they say about the future, both in the language of the statement and in the dotplot for this year and next.

14 November 2017 Poor EZ Production Data Won't Dent Second Q3 GDP Estimate (Publication Centre)

Soft September data in Germany and Italy suggest that today's industrial production report in the Eurozone will be poor. Our first chart shows that data from the major EZ economies point to a 0.8% month-to- month fall in September.

14 November 2018 German GDP Growth Crashed in Q3, but Inflation is Firming (Publication Centre)

We remain confident--see here--that today's Q3 GDP report in Germany will be a shocker, but this already is priced-in by markets.

15 December 2016 Congress, Growth and Inflation Will Determine What the Fed Does Next (Publication Centre)

The Fed's unanimous vote for a 25bp rate hike was overshadowed by the bump up in the dotplot for next year, with three hikes now expected, rather than the two anticipated in the September forecast. Chair Yellen argued the uptick in the rate forecasts was "tiny", but acknowledged that some participants moved their forecasts partly on the basis that fiscal policy is likely to be eased by the new Congress.

15 Apr 2020 An Advance Guide to Next Week's Data, They'll Be Grim (Publication Centre)

The U.K. Monitor will be on a short break soon for paternity leave, so we are taking this opportunity to preview next week's data releases.

15 December 2016 October's Surprising Labor Data Will Make the MPC Think, not Act (Publication Centre)

The Bank of England won't set markets alight today. We expect another 9-0 vote to leave rates unchanged at 0.25%, and to continue with the £50B of gilt purchases and $10B of corporate bond purchases announced in August. This is not to say, though, that everything is plain sailing for the Monetary Policy Committee.

15 December 2017 The PBoC's Meagre Hike Implies the RMB is set to Depreciate (Publication Centre)

Following this week's 25bp Fed hike, the PBoC hiked the main interest rates in its corridor by... 5bp. The move was unexpected so the RMB strengthened modestly; commentary is full of how this means the deleveraging drive is serious.

15 February 2019 Ignore Germany and Italy for a Bit, and the EZ Q4 GDP Data are Solid (Publication Centre)

The EZ Q4 GDP data narrowly avoided a downward revision in yesterday's second estimate.

14 September 2016 Labour Market Report Likely to be Soft all Round (Publication Centre)

Today's figures likely will bring the first real signs that the Brexit vote has had an adverse impact on the labour market. The employment balances of the key private-sector surveys weakened sharply in July, and recovered only partially in August. In addition, the three-month average level of job vacancies fell by 7K between April and July.

14 Oct 2020 The Labour Market is in the Eye of the Storm, More Job Losses Loom (Publication Centre)

On balance, yesterday's labour market statistics were better than we had expected.

14 November 2018 Still Enough Slack to Prevent Wage Growth From Rising Further (Publication Centre)

September's labour market report suggests that wage growth won't continue to rise for much longer.

14 November. 2016 Higher EZ Inflation and Bond Yields: Story Changing? (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed October CPI report in Germany confirmed that inflation pressures are steadily rising. Inflation rose to 0.8% year-over-year in October, from 0.7% in September, lifted mostly by a continuing increase in energy prices.

14 Oct 2019 Resilient Consumption in Brazil, Manufacturing in Mexico Slowing (Publication Centre)

Hard data for Brazil and Mexico, released last week, support the case for further interest rate cuts.

14 Oct 2019: A Brexit Deal with a NI-Only Backstop won't get Through this HoC (Publication Centre)

Sterling leapt to $1.27, from $1.22 last week, amid some positive signals from all sides engaged in Brexit talks.

14 Jan 2020 Early Signs of an IP Recovery in India Build the Case for the RBI's Pause (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in India turned around sharply in November, rising by 1.8% year-over-year, following October's 4.0% plunge and beating the consensus forecast for a trivial 0.3% uptick.

14 Feb 2020 Japan's Q4 GDP Likely Plunged, Covid-19 Spells Recession (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP likely dropped by a huge 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, after the 0.5% increase in Q3, with risks skewed firmly to the downside.

13 March 2017 Will the Labor Data Push the Fed to Hike Again in June? (Publication Centre)

With rates now certain to rise this week, the real importance of the employment picture is what it says about the timing of the next hike. To be clear, we think the Fed will raise rates again in June, and will at that meeting add another dot to the plot, making four hikes this year.

13 March 2017 A Slowdown in the U.K. Will Dent the German Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Germany's external surplus remained resilient at the start of the year. Data on Friday showed that the seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose marginally to €18.5B in January, from a revised €18.3B in December.

13 May 2020 Could a Savings Run Down Revitalise the Post-Virus Economy? (Publication Centre)

Analysis of the economy's potential to recover later this year from extreme weakness in Q2 has focussed largely on the extent to which virus-related restrictions will be lifted.

13 May 2020 Ugly Data in Mexico Continue to Set the Stage for Further Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

More depressing economic numbers in LatAm have been released in recent days, and high frequency data continue to show a near-term bleak outlook.

13 Nov 2019 Japan's Pending Stimulus Marks a Return to the Bad Old Days (Publication Centre)

PM Abe last week asked the cabinet to put together a package of measures in a 15-month budget aimed at bolstering GDP growth through productivity enhancement, in addition to the shorter-term goal of disaster recovery.

13 Mar 2020 Lift from Anti-Covid Jobs in Korea won't Last, the BoK will Cut in April (Publication Centre)

The effects of Covid-19--both negative and positive--on Korea's labour market certainly were felt in February.

13 June 2019 Let's Take a Minute to Cheer the Strengthening French Economy (Publication Centre)

On all accounts, growth in France has been modest in the past six-to-12 months, but in relative terms, the French economy is slowly but surely asserting itself as one of the key engines of growth in the EZ.

13 Jan 2020 Mexico's Weak Economic Activity Will Push Core Inflation Down (Publication Centre)

Thursday's CPI report in Mexico showed that inflation is edging lower. We are confident that it will continue to fall consistently during Q1, thanks chiefly to the subpar economic recovery, low inertia and the effect of the recent MXN rebound.

13 July 2017 Japanese PPI Inflation to Decelerate, but Only Modestly (Publication Centre)

Japan's producer price inflation levelled off in June and, for now, both commodity prices and currency moves in the first half imply that inflation should fall in the second half.

13 July 2017 Yellen Expects the Labor Market to Tighten Further, and Rates to Rise (Publication Centre)

Chair Yellen broke no new ground in her Testimony yesterday, repeating her long-standing view that the tightening labor market requires the Fed to continue normalizing policy at a gradual pace.

13 July 2018 Consumers' Spending Was Resilient in Q2, but Growth Will Slow in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in Brazil suggest that retailers suffered in the second quarter, hit by the effect of the truckers' strike, but private consumption remains somewhat resilient.

13 Nov 2019 The Labour Market isn't Weak Enough to Warrant More Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The rate of deterioration in the labour market remains gradual enough for the MPC to hold back from cutting Bank Rate over the coming months.

13 Oct 2020 High Inflation Expectations aren't Warranted by the Outlook (Publication Centre)

You wouldn't know from markets' inflation expectations that a large deflationary shock recently has hit the economy.

14 August 2017 Peru's Central Bank Holds Rates but Points to Further Stimulus (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.75% last week, but signalled that further easing is on the way. According to the press release accompanying the decision, policymakers noted that inflation expectations are within their target range and still falling.

14 August 2017 A Great First Half of 2017 for the EZ Economy, But it Won't Last (Publication Centre)

While we were away, the advance Q2 GDP report in the Eurozone confirmed our expectations of a strong first half of the year for the economy. Real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, the same pace as in Q1, lifting the year-over-year rate to a cyclical high of 2.1%.

22 January 2019 The Prime Minister's Plan B Has Little Chance of Success (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister has revealed that her Plan B for Brexit is to get Eurosceptics within the Tory party on side in an attempt to show the E.U. that a deal could be done if the backstop for Northern Ireland was amended. Her plan is highly likely to fail, again.

14 December 2017 The Fed Expects Endless Growth and no Inflation, Maybe They're Right (Publication Centre)

The Fed surprised no-one by raising rates 25bp yesterday and leaving in place the median forecast for three hikes next year and two next year.

14 Feb 2020 Eurozone Q4 GDP Growth will be Revised Down Today, to Zero (Publication Centre)

We've already raised a red flag for today's second Q4 GDP estimate in the Eurozone, but for good measure, we repeat the argument here.

14 Aug 2019 Labour Market Data Point to Higher Rates if a No-Deal Brexit is Averted (Publication Centre)

Another month, another strong set of labour market data which undermine the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate, provided a no-deal Brexit is avoided.

13 September 2018 China's Money Headlines Tell an Old Story Conditions are Loosening (Publication Centre)

China's M2 growth slowed to 8.2% year-over-year in August, from 8.5% in July

13 Oct 2020 Stimulus Foundering on the Strong Objections of Some GOP Senators (Publication Centre)

As we reach our deadline Monday afternoon, the Columbus Day long weekend has brought no progress on the fiscal front.

13 October 2017 Brazilian Consumption is Picking Up, Despite August's Poor Data (Publication Centre)

Brazil's retail sales data undershot consensus in August, falling by 0.5% after four straight gains. But we think this merely a temporary softening, following the strong performance in recent months.

13 September 2017 Labour Market Report to Show no Easing of the Real Wage Squeeze (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market report likely will show that employment continued to grow briskly over the summer, but that wage gains still are lagging well behind inflation.

13 September 2017 The French Labour Market is on the Up. Will Reforms Follow? (Publication Centre)

In theory, the headline labour market data in France should be a source of comfort and support for the new government.

11 May 2020 Still No Signs of a Rebound in the EZ, but that Should Change Soon (Publication Centre)

Last week finished as it started, with more depressing economic numbers in the Eurozone, this time from manufacturing in the core economies.

11 May 2020 More QE Coming in June, Following Inaction from the MPC Last Week (Publication Centre)

The MPC's pause for breath last week disappointed a majority of investors, who thought that it would at least tweak aspects of the support programmes put in place in March.

1 May 2020 Did the ECB Just Revive the Carry Trade in EZ Sovereign Bonds? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting was a much more assured affair, compared to the March calamity. The central bank left its key refinancing and deposit rates unchanged, at 0.00% and -0.5%, respectively, and also maintained the pace and guidance on its two asset purchase programs.

1 May 2019 The Eurozone Economy Defied the Pessimists in the First Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic headlines in the Eurozone were pleasant reading.

1 Nov 2019 New Forecasts to Show Government on Course to Break its Fiscal Rule (Publication Centre)

The Office for Budget Responsibility has decided to press ahead with the publication of new fiscal forecasts on November 7, despite the government's decision to postpone the Budget until after the next election.

1 Nov 2019 Payrolls Set for GM Hit, but the Trend is Slowing too, with Worse to Come (Publication Centre)

We expect to see a 70K increase in October payrolls today.

1 Nov 2019 The Easing Cycle in Brazil is Nearly Over, Chile's Public Chaos Continues (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board-- COPOM--voted unanimously on Wednesday to cut the Selic rate by 50bp to 5.00%, as expected.

1 May 2018 Why has Consumers' Confidence Suddenly Deteriorated Again? (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the timing of the drop in the E.C.'s measure of consumers' confidence, to its lowest level since July 2016 in April, is peculiar.

1 March 2019 The Brexit Drag on Net Migration Should Fade This Year (Publication Centre)

The latest official data show that net migration to the U.K. hasn't fallen much, despite all the uncertainty created by the Brexit vote.

1 June. 2016 Chile's Domestic Demand Growth to Slow in Q2, A fter a Solid Q1 (Publication Centre)

Chile's April retail sales data, released on Monday, show that private consumption started the second quarter on a solid footing. Sales rose 3.0% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-rate up to 7.9% from 1.4% in March and an average of 4.0% in Q1. The headline was boosted by a favourable calendar effect, as April this year had two more trading days than April 2015.

1 June. 2015 Brazil's GDP Growth Better Than Expected - But Still Very Bad (Publication Centre)

The fact that Brazilian economy shrank in the first quarter was never in doubt; what really mattered was the pace of contraction. Surprisingly; the decline was just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, above market expectations, but still down after the meagre 0.3% gain in Q4.

1 June. 2016 Mounting Evidence of a Peak in the EZ Business Cycle This Year (Publication Centre)

Money supply data in the euro area disappointed yesterday. Growth in M3 fell to 4.6% year-over-year in April, from 5.0% in March, due to an accelerated fall in the pace of narrow money growth. M1 rose 9.7% year-over-year, down from 10.1% in March. It was hit by lower growth in both overnight deposits and currency in circulation.

1 March 2017 The Mexican Labor Market is Solid, But it Likely will soon Disappoint (Publication Centre)

Strong fundamentals have supported private consumption in Mexico recently, but we now expect a slowdown. Spending will not collapse, though, because consumer credit growth, formal employment, real wage income and remittances will continue to underpin consumption for the next three-to-six months.

1 March 2018 Eurozone inflation has bottomed for the year (Publication Centre)

House purchase mortgage approvals by the main street banks jumped to 40.1K in January, from 36.1K in December, fully reversing the 4K fall of the previous two months, according to trade body U.K. Finance.

1 Nov 2019 The Thought of a Rate Cut Spooks the BoJ into a Parallel Dimension (Publication Centre)

The BoJ yesterday kept the policy balance rate at -0.1%, and the 10-year yield target at "around zero", in line with the consensus.

1 Nov 2019 Where's the Fire, The EZ Economy is Weak, but also Stabilising (Publication Centre)

The more headline hard data we see in the Eurozone, the more we are getting the impression that 2019 is the year of stabilisation, rather than a precursor to recession.

1 September 2017 Expect Strong August Payrolls, but Calendar Distortions will hit Wages (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators all point to a solid August payroll number. Survey-based measures of the pace of hiring signal a 200K-plus increase, and jobless claims--a proxy for the pace of gross layoffs--are at a record low as a share of the workforce.

1 Sep 2020 Don't Expect LatAm's Output to Reach Pre-Covid Levels this Year (Publication Centre)

The worst of the pandemic seems to be over in many countries in LatAm, allowing a gradual reopening of their economies.

1 September 2017 EZ Energy Inflation will Fall Soon, but the Core Rate will Edge Higher (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's aggregate economic data for the euro area showed that inflation rose slightly in August. The headline rate rose to a four-month high of 1.5% in August from 1.3% in July. The rate was lifted mainly by energy inflation, rising to 4.6% from 2.2% in July, but we think the rebound will be short-lived.

10 August. 2016 When Rates are Close to Zero, Behavior Changes (Publication Centre)

Slowly but surely, it is becoming respectable to argue that central bank policy in the developed world is part of the problem of slow growth, not the solution. We have worried for some time that the signal sent by ZIRP--that the economy is in terrible shape--is more than offsetting the cash-flow gains to borrowers.

10 Dec 2019 Japan's Revised Q3 GDP Growth Reveals a bit More of the Tax Impact (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP growth was revised up, to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.1% in the preliminary reading.

1 Sep 2020 Decent Data Today won't Change the Deteriorating Q4 Outlook (Publication Centre)

Today brings a raft of data which mostly will look quite positive but will do nothing to assuage our fears over a sharp slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter.

1 October 2018 Data Confirm Softer Q3 in Disaster- Hit Japan, but it's not all Bad News (Publication Centre)

A firmer picture is emerging of how Japan's economy fared in Q3, in light of the latest slew of data for August.

1 November 2017 Rising Industrial Output Will Lift Chile's IMACEC, Jobs Wil Follow (Publication Centre)

Industrial output in Chile struggled late in the third quarter, falling 1.3% month-to-month in September. The year-over-year rate, calendar and seasonally adjusted, rose 2.4% in September, down from a revised 5.3% in August.

1 November 2017 Will the Fed Upgrade its View on Growth Today? (Publication Centre)

The Fed will do nothing today, but the FOMC's statement will re-affirm the intention to continue its "gradual" tightening.

1 Oct 2020 September Payrolls Look a Bit Better After ADP, October Seems Weak (Publication Centre)

We're happy that ADP beat our forecast yesterday-- an extra 250K jobs doesn't change the world, but it's better than the opposite--and we're lifting our forecast for tomorrow's payroll numbers in response.

1 Oct 2020 This Week's EZ Core CPI will Surprise to the Downside (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's inflation data in France and Italy were just about as soft as we had expected, but not for the reasons we were looking for.

1 June 2020 The Saving Rate has Peaked, but Consumers have a Lot of Firepower (Publication Centre)

The entire 10.5% increase in personal income in April, reported on Friday, was due to the direct stimulus payments made to households under the CARES Act.

1 June 2020 The Brazilian Economy Collapsed in Q1, but Much Worse is to Come (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days have started to reveal a story of horror and misery in the Brazilian economy.

08 Feb. 2016 If the Fed Focuses on Wages, They'll Hike in March (Publication Centre)

The Fed's decisions over the next few months hinge on the relative importance policymakers place on the apparent slowdown in payroll growth and the unambiguous acceleration in wages. We qualify our verdict on the payroll numbers because the January number was very close to our expectation, which in turn was based largely on an analysis of the seasonals, not the underlying economy.

07 October. 2016 Payrolls Likely Unexciting Last Month, But Wages Should Rebound (Publication Centre)

Private sector payroll growth has averaged 190K over the past year, but the six-month average has slowed to 150K. The downshift is consistent with the weakening in survey-based measures of hiring intentions, which began to soften at the turn of the year.

08 Jan. 2016 Expect Robust Jobs Data, but Downside Risk for Wages (Publication Centre)

The underlying trend in payroll growth is running at about 225K-to-250K, perhaps more, and the leading indicators we follow suggest that's a reasonable starting point for our December forecast. The trend in jobless claims is extraordinarily low and stable--the week-to-week volatility is eye-catching, especially over the holidays, but unimportant--and indicators of hiring remain robust. The unusually warm weather in the eastern half of the country between the November and December survey weeks also likely will give payrolls a small nudge upwards, with construction likely the key beneficiary, as in November.

08 May. 2015 Payroll Set to Rebound In April - a Return to the 275K Trend? (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the soft-looking ADP employment report released on Wednesday, the true consensus for today's official payroll number likely is lower than the 230K reported in the Bloomberg survey. As we argued in the Monitor yesterday, though, we view ADP as a lagging indicator and we don't use it is as a forecasting tool.

09 Feb. 2016 NFIB Survey Components are More Important than the Headline (Publication Centre)

The headline number in today's NFIB survey of small businesses probably will look soft. The index is sensitive to the swings in the stock market and we'd be surprised to see no response to the volatility of recent weeks. We also know already that the hiring intentions number dropped by four points, reversing December's gain, because the key labor market numbers are released in advance, the day before the official payroll report.

06 Jan. 2016 The Services PMI isn't the Final Word on the Economy's Health (Publication Centre)

Unanticipated movements in the Markit/CIPS services PMI often provoke big market reactions, despite its shortcomings as an indicator of the pace of growth. We suspect December's PMI, released today, could surprise to the downside, reversing most of its rise in November to 55.9 from 54.9 in October. Regardless, we place more weight on the official data, which is more comprehensive and shows clearly the recovery is slowing.

06 Jan. 2016 Spotlight Back on the ECB after Soft Eurozone Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Disappointing inflation data remain a critical dark spot in the context of otherwise solid evidence of a firming cyclical recovery. Advance data indicate that inflation was unchanged at a mere 0.2% year-over-year in December, with falling food inflation and a dip in services inflation offsetting easing deflation in energy prices. Headline inflation likely will be volatile in coming months. Base effects will push up the year-over-year rate in energy price inflation further in Q1, but we are wary that continued declines in food inflation could offset this effect.

01 Feb. 2016 Inflation Report Likely to Nudge Markets to Expect an Earlier Hike (Publication Centre)

With financial markets still turbulent and the Governor stating only two weeks ago that economic conditions do not yet justify a rate hike, the Inflation Report on Thursday will not signal imminent action. Nonetheless, higher medium-term forecasts for inflation are likely to imply that the Committee still envisions raising interest rates this year.

03 October. 2016 First Signs of Recovery in Brazilian Private Consumption? (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession has been severe, triggered by the downturn in the commodity cycle, which revealed the underlying structural weaknesses in the economy. This set off an acute shock in domestic demand, but it has bottomed in recent months and we now expect a gradual recovery to emerge.

04 Mar. 2016 Downside Risks for Payrolls and Wages, but Trends are Solid (Publication Centre)

The underlying trend in payroll growth probably has not changed significantly from the 228K average monthly gains recorded last year. But the average hides wide variations, some triggered by seasonal adjustment problems and others by one-time weather effects or unavoidable and random sampling error. January's below-trend 151K increase was likely a victim of seasonal problems, because payroll gains in recent years have tended to be soft at the start of the year after outsized fourth quarter increases.

05 Feb. 2016 Downside Jobs Risk as Seasonals, Weather Effects Combine (Publication Centre)

We are pretty bullish about the prospects for the economy this year, but we try not to let our core view interfere with our take on the individual indicators. And our analysis suggests that the odds strongly favor a "disappointing" headline payroll number today; we have revised down our forecast to 160K from our previous 175K estimate.

1 Apr 2020 Brazil and Chile Pre-Covid Data were Solid, but the Good News won't Last (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in LatAm are the last calm before the coronavirus storm.

1 Apr 2020 Hold Your Horses... A V-Shaped Recovery in China isn't Secured, Yet (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs for March surprised well to the upside, cheering markets across Asia.

1 July 2020 ADP Likely to Report Rising June Payrolls, but Anything Could Happen (Publication Centre)

Today brings a raft of data with the potential to move markets, but we're far from convinced that the two most closely-watched reports--ADP employment and the ISM manufacturing survey--will tell us much about the future.

1 July 2019 Brazil's Inflation Report Opened the Door for Rate Cuts as Early as July (Publication Centre)

Recent economic weakness in Brazil, particularly in domestic demand, and the ongoing deterioration of confidence indicators, have strengthened the case for interest rate cuts.

1 July 2020 Brazil's Job Market is Under Strain, despite a Resilient-looking Headline (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday showed that the labour market in Brazil looks relatively resilient to the collapse in economic activity.

1 July. 2016 EZ Inflation Will Edge Higher, Regardless of Political Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone escaped deflation last month, and we doubt it will return in this business cycle. Inflation rose to 0.1% year-over-year in June, up from -0.1% in May; it was lifted chiefly by the gradual recovery in oil and other global commodity prices. Energy prices fell 6.5% in June, up from a 8.4% fall in May, and we think the recovery will accelerate in coming months.

1 June 2020 Abysmal April Sets the Stage for Japan's Nightmare Q2 (Publication Centre)

Japan's main activity data for April were massively disappointing, presaging the sharper GDP contraction we expect in Q2, compared with Q1.

1 February 2019 Expect Respectable January Payrolls Labor Demand is Still Very Strong (Publication Centre)

We have few doubts that labor demand remained strong in January, but the chance of a repeat of December's 312K payroll gain is slim.

1 February 2017 Mexico's Economy Was Strong in Q4, but the Outlook has Darkened (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of full-year 2016 GDP in Mexico indicates that growth gathered momentum over the second half of last year. But risks are now tilted to the downside, following the U.S. election. GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, after a 1.0% increase in Q3. Growth was much slower in the firs t half, as shown in our char t below.

1 Apr 2020 Your Guide to the German Labour Market Data and Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's March labour market data in Germany were surprisingly strong

1 April 2019 More Evidence Emerging of a Q1 Rebound in Consumers' Spending (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data added to the evidence of a Q1 rebound in EZ consumption growth.

1 April 2019 The BCCh Finally Admits that the Economy is not Overshooting (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank left its policy rate on hold last Friday at 3.0%, in line with market expectations, amid easing inflationary pressures and a struggling economy.

1 December 2017 Blame Italy for November's Undershoot in EZ Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the euro area edged higher in November, but our prediction of a rebound in the core proved to be wrong. Headline inflation increased to 1.5% in November, from 1.4% in October.

10 Dec 2019 Net Exports in Germany Were Off to a Flying Start in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The early Q4 hard data in Germany recovered a bit of ground yesterday.

10 Dec 2019 Small Firms Like Rising Stock Prices, even as Trade Uncertainty Continues (Publication Centre)

The monthly survey of small businesses conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business is quite sensitive to short-term movements in the stock market, so we're expecting an increase in the November reading, due today.

11 Dec 2019 Most of the Risk to November's Core CPI is to the Upside (Publication Centre)

We see clear upside risk to the inflation data due before the FOMC announcement, from three main sources.

11 Dec 2019 French Manufacturing is Headed for a Soft Q4, Despite a Solid Start (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in France remained on the front foot at the start of Q4.

11 Dec 2019 The PBoC Could Cut Rates Again this Year, Easing so far is Insufficient (Publication Centre)

China's November money and credit data were a little less grim, with only M2 growth slipping, due to unfavourable base effects.

11 Dec. 2015 Upturn in French Industrial Output is Misleading and Won't Last (Publication Centre)

October industrial production data in France surprised to the upside yesterday, with headline output rising 0.5% month-to-month, well above the consensus estimate and our own forecast for a monthly fall. Production was lifted by a 5.1% month-to-month jump in energy output, due to unusually cold weather, offsetting a 0.5% decline in manufacturing output, the fifth drop in the past six months.

11 December 2017 200K-plus Payroll Gains Set to Continue, Wage Gains Will Rise (Publication Centre)

First things first: Payroll growth likely will be sustained at or close to November's pace.

11 August. 2016 Mortgage Demand is Faltering, Will it Rebound Soon? (Publication Centre)

The medium-term trend in the volume of mortgage applications turned up in early 2015, but progress has not been smooth. The trend in the MBA's purchase applications index has risen by about 40% from its late 2014 low, but the increase has been characterized by short bursts of rapid gains followed by periods of stability.

11 August 2017 Core CPI Looks Set to Revert to 0.2% in July, but Nothing is Certain (Publication Centre)

Our base case forecast for today's July core CPI is that the remarkable and unexpected run of weak numbers, shown in our first chart, is set to come to an end, with a reversion to the prior 0.2% trend.

11 April 2017 Why are Small Firms' Capex Plans so Soft even as Sentiment Soars? (Publication Centre)

Nowhere is the gap between sentiment and activity wider than in the NFIB survey of small businesses. The economic expectations component leaped by an astonishing 57 points between October and December, but the capex intentions index rose by only two points over the same period, and it has since slipped back. In February, the capex intentions index stood at 26, compared to an average of 27.3 in the three months to October.

11 April 2019 Korea's March Jobs Report will Help the BoK Stave off Calls for Cuts (Publication Centre)

Korea's labour market took an overdue breather in March after an extremely volatile start to the year.

11 Aug 2020 Britain's Recovery Likely Quickened in June, but Still Lagged its Peers (Publication Centre)

We expect June's GDP data, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered momentum in June, having got off to a faltering start in May.

11 August 2017 Brazil's Inflation Rate is Falling, Mexico's Will Soon Follow (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in Brazil are now well- contained, with the headline rate falling to a decade low in July. We think inflation is now close to bottoming out, but the current benign rate strengthens our base case forecast for a 100bp rate cut at the next policy meeting, in September.

11 Feb 2020 Phase One Trade Deal Trumped the Virus in China's January PPI (Publication Centre)

The clear threat to demand posed by the coronavirus and China's efforts at containment have sent a shock wave through commodities markets.

11 Feb 2020 The Coronavirus will test the Policy Put's Effect on EZ Equities (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Sentix investor sentiment survey provided the first glimpse of conditions on the ground in the EZ economy in the wake of the coronavirus scare.

11 March 2019 Labor Demand Slowing, but February Payrolls Overstate the Downshift (Publication Centre)

The 20K increase in February payrolls is not remotely indicative of the underlying trend, and we see no reason to expect similar numbers over the next few months.

11 Mar 2020 Chinese PPI Deflation is Back, But Should Disappear by Q4 (Publication Centre)

Collapsing oil prices add fresh deflationary pressure on China.

11 May 2017 Core PPI Inflation is set to Rise Further, CPI Components to Follow? (Publication Centre)

Today brings the April PPI data, which likely will show core inflation creeping higher, with upward pressure in both good and services. The upside risk in the goods component is clear enough, as our first chart shows.

11 May 2018 Core Inflation is Still Set To Rise, April's Softness won't be Repeated (Publication Centre)

The undershoot in the April core CPI wasn't a huge surprise to us; the downside risk we set out in yesterday's Monitor duly materialized, with used car prices dropping by a hefty 1.6% month-to-month, subtracting 0.05% from the core index.

11 May 2020 Bolsonaro's Surreal Approach to the Pandemic is Putting Brazil in Peril (Publication Centre)

Economic conditions in Brazil are deteriorating rapidly.

11 June 2020 The Fed isn't Thinking About Thinking About Hiking, Why Would They (Publication Centre)

The Fed announced no significant policy changes yesterday, but the FOMC reinforced its commitment to maintain "smooth market functioning", by promising to keep its Treasury and mortgage purchases "at least at the current pace".

11 June 2020 How to Read Next Week's Migraine- Inducing Labour Market Report (Publication Centre)

Many investors probably will be scratching their heads in the wake of next week's labour market report, which will reveal the Covid-19 hit to employment and wages in April, as well as showing how much further the claimant count soared in May.

11 Feb. 2015 Chile's Outlook Improving Slowly - Oil Price are a Clear Tailwind (Publication Centre)

The resilience and adaptability that the Chilean economy has shown over previous cycles has been tested repeatedly over the last year. Uncertainty on the political front, falling metal prices, and growing concerns about growth in China have been the key factors behind expectations of slowing GDP growth.

11 January 2018 Will France Reap the Rewards of Supply-Side Reforms in 2018? (Publication Centre)

Momentum in French manufacturing eased slightly in November, but the setback was modest. Industrial production dipped 0.5% month-to-month, only partially reversing the revised 1.7% jump in October.

11 July. 2016 Jobs Overstate Economic Volatility, Wages Will Soon Matter More (Publication Centre)

Whatever you might think about the state of the U.S. economy, it is not as volatile as implied by the past few months' payroll numbers. Assuming steady productivity growth in line with the recent trend, the payroll data suggest the economy swung from bust to boom in one month, with not even a pause for breath.

11 June 2018 China's Trade Surplus Should Start Trending up Again Later this Year (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus has been trending down in the last two years.

11 Apr. 2016 Stronger Growth and Accelerating Wages Will Shift Rate Sentiment (Publication Centre)

A reader sent us last week a series of five simple feedback loops, all of which ended with the Fed remaining "cautious". For example, in a scenario in which the dollar strengthens--perhaps because of stronger U.S. economic data--markets see an increased risk of a Chinese devaluation, which then pummels EM assets, making the Fed nervous about global growth risks to the domestic economy.

10 September 2018 The Payroll Blip is Over, Expect Further Labor Market Tightening (Publication Centre)

Normal service appears to have resumed in August, with payrolls rising by 201K, very close to the 196K average over the previous year.

10 January 2019 Fed Doves Sound, Well, Dovish... but don't Ignore the Warning from Evans (Publication Centre)

The latest batch of FOMC speakers yesterday, together with the December minutes--participants said "the committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming"--offered nothing to challenge the idea, now firmly embedded in markets, that the next rate hike will come no sooner than June, if it comes at all.

10 Jan 2020 The Outlook for German Q4 GDP is Poor, but also Murkier than Usual (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report in Germany was much better than implied by the poor new orders data--see here--released earlier this week.

10 January 2019 Japanese Households Face Cross-currents Time to Tighten the Belt (Publication Centre)

Japan's wage growth surprised us with a jump to 2.0% year-over-year in December, up from 1.5% in November.

10 July 2019 Time for a Serious Debate about More QE in the Eurozone? (Publication Centre)

Our base case remains a 10bp cut in the deposit rate, to -0.5%, in September.

10 July 2020 Brazil's Retail Activity Improved in May, but the Overall Picture is Grim (Publication Centre)

This week real data in Brazil supported the idea that the worst of the recession is likely over, but a V-shaped rebound is not in the cards.

10 Jan 2020 Payrolls Continuing to Outperform Surveys, Look for 190K in December (Publication Centre)

Our forecast of a solid 190K increase in headline December payrolls ignores our composite employment indicator, which usually leads by about three months and points to a print of just 50K or so.

10 Feb. 2016 Yellen to Sound Cautious Today, but Can't Ignore the Labor Market (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen today needs to strike a balance between addressing investors' concerns over the state of the stock market and the risks posed by slower growth in Asia, and the tightening domestic labor market.

10 December 2018 Fires, Noise and Hurricanes Hit November Payrolls, not Tariffs (Publication Centre)

The softening in payroll growth in November appears mostly to be a story about short-term noise, rather than a sign that tariffs are hurting or that the broader economy is slowing.

10 Feb 2020 Lack of Chinese Trade Data Invites Speculation... so Here Goes (Publication Centre)

China's January trade data were scheduled for release on Friday, but instead, the customs authority delayed the publication, saying it would publish the numbers with the February data

10 Feb 2020 Job Gains Can't Be Sustained at January's Weather-Assisted Pace (Publication Centre)

The reported 225K jump in payrolls in January was even bigger than we expected, but it is not sustainable. The extraordinarily warm weather last month most obviously boosted job gains in construction, where the 44K increase was the biggest in a year

10 Feb 2020 The Noose Tightens on Eurozone Optimists, Will the ECB Cut Rates? (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data in the core EZ economies, for December, were startlingly poor. In Germany, industrial production plunged by 3.5% month-to-month, comfortably reversing the revised 1.2% rise in November.

10 July 2020 Rising PUA Jobless Claims Signal Real Pain from the Second Wave (Publication Centre)

We were happy to see initial jobless claims fall to a 15-week low of 1,314K yesterday, but the labor market is still in a terrible state.

10 July. 2015 In or Out, the Greek Drama Will Reach its Denouement on Sunday (Publication Centre)

We don't know how Europe will look on Monday. If European officials are to be believed, Greece will either have agreed to bail-out terms to keep it inside the Eurozone, or it will be on its way out. "Deadlines" have come and gone for Greece, but this time really is different, because the banks are bust without further support from the ECB, and that will not be forthcoming without a bail-out deal.

10 Nov 2020 Sticky Inflation in Mexico, but Banxico will be Able to Cut Rates this Week (Publication Centre)

Headline inflation in Mexico remained sticky in October, and even breached the ceiling of Banxico's target range.

10 March 2017 February Payrolls Look set for Strength, Seasonals Permitting (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a hefty increase in February payrolls today, but even a surprise weak number likely wouldn't prevent a rate hike next week. The trends in all the private sector employment surveys are strong and improving, and jobless claims have dropped to new lows too, though we think that's probably less important than it appears.

10 Sept 2019 What are EZ Investor Sentiment Data Telling You, if Anything (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday suggest that EZ investor sentiment is on track for a modest recovery in Q3.

10 Sept 2020 Labour Market Data to Show Jobs Downturn Gathering Pace in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The data calendar is so congested next week that it makes sense to preview Tuesday's labour market report early.

10 September 2018 No Need for the MPC to Rock the Boat This Week (Publication Centre)

Lacklustre economic data and persistent no deal Brexit risk mean that the MPC won't rock the boat at this week's meeting.

10 Mar. 2016 Wage Growth Poised to Revive, Regardless of Immigration (Publication Centre)

Amid the intensifying debate about the pros and cons of E.U. membership, higher immigration from the rest of Europe often is blamed for the disappointing weakness of wage growth over the last couple of years. But we see little evidence to support that hypothesis.

10 Mar 2020 Expect China's Imports to Deteriorate Further this Month (Publication Centre)

China's trade balance flipped to an unadjusted deficit of $7.1B in the first two months of the year, from a $47.2B surplus in December.

10 June 2019 Job Gains will Rebound, May's Slowdown is no Reason to Cut Rates (Publication Centre)

Payroll growth has slowed, no matter how you slice and dice the numbers.

10 June 2020 Banxico will Cut Rates this Month, Despite the Inflation Rebound in May (Publication Centre)

This week's data have offered further clear hard evidence of the Covid-19 shock to the Mexican economy, supporting our base case of further interest rate cuts in the coming monetary policy meetings.

10 June 2020 Collapse in Overtime Hours and Pay in April is Damning for Japan's Q1 (Publication Centre)

Private consumption in Japan will take time to recover, even if some semblance of normality returns from this month.

10 June 2020 GDP Recovery Greatly Constrained by the Fitful Reopening of Schools (Publication Centre)

The government's decision to shelve plans to reopen primary schools fully later this month will ensure that GDP remains greatly below its precoronavirus level throughout the summer months.

15 Jan 2020 Chinese Trade Ends 2019 Strongly, but the Surplus Still is Narrowing (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus jumped to a six-month high of $46.8B in December, from $37.6B in November, on the back of a strong increase in exports.

14 December 2016 Labour Data Set to Show a Clearer Deteriorating Trend (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market figures likely will bring further signs that firms are recruiting more cautiously and limiting pay awards, due to still-elevated economic uncertainty.

2 July 2020 Another Increase in Payrolls is a Good Bet, but Anything Can Happen (Publication Centre)

ADP's measure of May private payrolls undershot the official estimate by 5.6 million, surprising everyone after it nailed the April catastrophe.

2 July 2020 A Few Silver Linings in Japan's Otherwise Grim Q2 Tankan Survey (Publication Centre)

Japan's Tankan survey for Q2 was unsurprisingly grim, given the devastation caused by the near- global lockdown in the first half of the quarter, and the nationwide state of emergency that enveloped April and May.

2 July. 2015 Strong Jobs Numbers a Decent Bet, but Reasons for Caution too (Publication Centre)

Most of the indicators we follow point to another very strong payroll report today; we look for a 260K gain, matching May's performance. The best single leading indicator, the NFIB small business hiring intentions number, points to a massive 320K leap in private payrolls, as our first chart shows.

2 June 2017 May Payrolls Likely Solid, but Calendar Quirk will hit Wage Data (Publication Centre)

The 253K increase in May private payrolls reported by ADP yesterday was some a bit stronger than our 225K forecast. Plugging the difference between these numbers into our payroll model generates our 210K forecast for today's official number.

2 June 2020 Auto Sales are Rebounding Quickly, No Nike Swoosh Here (Publication Centre)

The May auto sales numbers probably will be released just after our deadline at 4pm eastern time today, but all the signs are that a hefty rebound will be reported after April's plunge to just 8.6M, not much more than half the pre-Covid level.

2 July 2019 More Misery in EZ Manufacturing, but M1 Looks Solid Enough (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in the Eurozone were soft.

2 January 2018 The Economy Won't Spring Back to Life in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The economy slowed less than we expected in 2017.

2 February 2018 Is it Time to Tell a More Balanced Story on EZ Manufacturing? (Publication Centre)

We struggle to find much wrong with the near-term outlook for Eurozone manufacturing. The headline PMI fell marginally to 59.6 in January, from 60.6 in December, but it continues to signal robust growth at the start of the year.

2 February 2018 A Solid Finish to 2017 for Brazil, Pointing to Upside Risks (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production and labour reports, released this week, confirmed that the recovery remained solidly on track at the end of last year.

2 February 2018 January Job Gains Likely Solid, Calendar Effects to Subdue AHE? (Publication Centre)

The case for expecting a robust January jobs number is strong, but it is not without risks.

15 Jan 2020 Inflation in the Andean Economies Remains Low, but Policies will Differ (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Andean economies ended 2019 well within central banks' objectives, despite many domestic and external challenges.

2 January 2018 BoJ: Chinese Profit Story Deteriorates Amid Surprisingly Robust PMIs (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs paint a picture of robust momentum going into 2018 but we find this difficult to reconcile with the other data.

2 June 2020 BanRep Cuts Rates as the Colombian Labour Market Collapses (Publication Centre)

Colombian policymakers on Friday cut the reference rate by 50bp, for a third straight month, to 2.75%.

2 Mar 2020 Japan's Labour Data in Disarray, Early Signs of Virus Worries? (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour data threw another January curve ball this year--last year it was wages--with a change in the standards for job openings.

2 November 2018 October Payrolls are Hurricane-Wild, but AHE is Headed for 3%-plus (Publication Centre)

Don't bet the farm on today's October payroll numbers, which will be hopelessly--and unpredictably-- compromised by the impact of hurricanes Florence and Michael.

2 November 2018 Copom on Hold for a While the BRL Allows some Room for Manoeuvre (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank kept the Selic policy rate at 6.50% this week, as markets broadly expected.

2 Oct 2020 Chile's Economy is Finally on the Mend, the Outlook is Improving (Publication Centre)

Chile's upbeat economic activity reports for August are consistent with economic recovery in the second half of the year, after an ugly first half.

2 Oct 2020 Decent September Payrolls don't Guarantee a Repeat in October (Publication Centre)

We look for a 950K increase in September private payrolls, more than the 700K or so implied by the Homebase daily employment data but consistent with ADP, assuming it has undershot the official numbers for a sixth straight month.

2 Oct 2020 EZ Manufacturing is Stretching its Legs, According to the PMIs (Publication Centre)

Judging by the PMIs, the euro area's industrial sector is now stretching its legs.

2 May 2018 The BoK is on a Mission, and will Hike in May, it's not About Inflation (Publication Centre)

We expect the BoK to hike this month, believing that it's necessary to curtail household debt growth now, in order to prevent a sharper economic slowdown as the Fed hiking cycle continues, China slows, and trade risks unfold.

2 May 2017 Don't get too Excited by the April Jump in EZ Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Eurozone inflation pressures snapped back in April. Friday's advance report showed that headline inflation rose to 1.9% year-over-year, from 1.5% in March, lifted by a jump in the cor e rate to 1.2% from 0.7% the month before.

2 Mar 2020 Covid-19 Cases Accelerating Outside the Four Major Outbreaks (Publication Centre)

The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing at a faster rate, though 89% of the new cases reported Saturday were in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran.

2 Mar 2020 ECB easing is on the way, the only question is how much (Publication Centre)

We'll cover Friday's barrage of EZ economic data later in this Monitor, but first things first. We regret to inform readers that the ECB is behind the curve. Last week, Ms. Lagarde downplayed the idea that the central bank will respond to the shock from the Covid-19 outbreak.

2 Mar. 2015 Falling Confidence, High Inflation, Rising Rates: Brazil in a Mess (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic data last week were appalling. The IPCA-15 price index rose 1.3% month-to-month, the fastest pace in 12 years, pushing the annual rate to 7.4% in mid-February from 6.7% in mid-January,well above the 6.5% upper bound of the BCB's target range.

2 March 2018 Markets Don't fear Sunday's elections in Italy (Publication Centre)

Earlier this week the New York Times bleakly suggested--see here--that people in Italy are too depressed to care about this weekend's parliamentary elections.

2 Dec 2019 The Effects of the Protests are Starting to Show up in Chile's Data (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets and currencies had a bad November, due to global trade war concerns, the USD rebound and domestic factors.

2 Dec 2019 EZ Core Inflation is Rising, but It Probably Overshot in November (Publication Centre)

The key detail in Friday's barrage of economic data was the above-consensus increase in EZ inflation.

19 January 2017 Wage Growth Won't Force The MPC to Hike Rates This Year (Publication Centre)

The most striking aspect of yesterday's labour market report was the pick-up in the headline three month average year-over-year growth rate of average weekly wages, to a 14-month high of 2.8% in November, from 2.6% in October. Although still low by pre-recession standards, wage growth now is close to the rate that might worry the MPC.

19 Feb 2020 Colombia's Economy is Resilient, but External Threats Have Risen (Publication Centre)

Colombia's GDP report, released last week, confirmed that it was the fastest growing economy in LatAm and everything suggests that it likely will lead the ranking again this year.

19 July 2018 China's Domestic Activity Likely Recovered in Q2 (Publication Centre)

China's official GDP data, published on Monday, showed year-over-year growth edging down to 6.7% in Q2, from 6.8% in Q1.

19 June 2017 Don't Rule Out a September Fed Hike, Watch the Labor Market Data (Publication Centre)

In the wake of last week's rate increase, the fed funds future puts the chance of another rise in September at just 16%. After hikes in December, March and June, we think the Fed is trying to tell us something about their intention to keep going; this is not 2015 or 2016, when the Fed happily accepted any excuse not to do what it had said it would do.

19 June 2020 Weekly Gilt Purchases to Halve, Following the MPC's Miserly Meeting (Publication Centre)

The BoE has lived up to its reputation again as one of the most unpredictable central banks.

19 December 2018 The Fed will Hike, but the Dots Could Sting a Shift to Two isn't Certain (Publication Centre)

From a bird's-eye perspective, the argument for continued steady Fed rate hikes is clear.

19 Dec. 2014 Further Signs of Diverging Growth Paths in Mexico And Brazil (Publication Centre)

This year has proved to be challenging for retailers in Mexico. The combination of fiscal reform, the economic slowdown over the first half of the year, and the collapse of consumer sentiment took a significant toll in the sector.

19 Aug 2019 The BoJ will Continue to Cross its Fingers on Yield Curve Inversion (Publication Centre)

An inverted curve is a widely recognised signal that a recession is around the corner, though it's worth remembering that the lags tend to be long.

19 August. 2016 Dear Fed, Please Don't Increase the Inflation Target. Thanks. (Publication Centre)

Everyone heard San Francisco Fed president Williams's suggestion Monday that central banks could raise their inflation targets in response to the sustained slow growth and lower-than-expected inflation of recent years. It's not clear, though, that markets grasped the scale of the increase he thinks might be appropriate.

19 Dec 2019 Below-Target Inflation Next Year Won't Warrant Monetary Stimulus (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 1.5% in November, marking the fourth consecutive below-target print, though it was a tenth above both the MPC's forecast and the consensus.

19 Dec 2019 Don't Expect China's LPR to Move Much, if at all, for December (Publication Centre)

The PBoC reduced its 14-day reverse repo by 5bp to 2.65% in a routine operation yesterday.

19 Mar 2020 What Else Can the Chancellor do to Reinforce the Eventual Recovery? (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak announced further emergency support measures for the economy on Tuesday and pledged to do more soon.

19 March 2018 Don't Extrapolate Soft EZ Inflation Data, the Low for the Year is In (Publication Centre)

Friday's data confirmed that inflation in the Eurozone slipped to a 14-month low of 1.1%, from 1.3% in January, 0.1 percentage points below the first estimate.

2 April 2019 The Easter Effect is Playing Tricks with Eurozone Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone stumbled at the end of Q3.

2 Apr 2020 Jobless Claims Likely to Hit Another New High, but they'll Fall Next Week (Publication Centre)

Last week's unprecedented surge in initial jobless claims, to 3,283K from 282K, prompted a New York Times front page for the ages; if you haven't seen it, click here.

2 August 2018 No Change in the Message from the FOMC Expect Sep. Dec. Hikes (Publication Centre)

The FOMC did nothing yesterday and said nothing significantly different from its June statement, as was universally expected.

2 Dec 2019 Business Sentiment Likely has Hit Bottom, but Hard Data Still Softening (Publication Centre)

We're reasonably happy with the idea that business sentiment is stabilizing, albeit at a low level, but that does not mean that all the downside risk to economic growth is over.

2 Dec 2019 Don't Take Your Eye off the Improving Monetary Indicators (Publication Centre)

With campaigning for the general election intensifying last week, it was unsurprising that October's money and credit release from the Bank of England received virtually no media or market attention.

19 Oct 2020 The Big Threat to Q4 Consumption is Covid, not Consumers' Cashflow (Publication Centre)

The third quarter ended with a bit of a bang for retailers, with sales rising strongly, even in the woebegone department store sector. The apparent loss of momentum in July and August reversed, with the sector reporting a 9.7% jump in sales.

19 Nov. 2015 Fed Set for December Hike, but Expect Two Dissents (Publication Centre)

At the October FOMC meeting, policymakers softened their view on the threat posed by the summer's market turmoil and the slowdown in China, dropping September's stark warning that "Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term." Instead, the October statement merely said that the committee is "monitoring global economic and financial developments."

19 May 2017 Brazil's Economy Doing Well, But Severe Political Risk is Back (Publication Centre)

Political risk in Brazil has increased substantially, following reports that President Temer was taped in an alleged cover-up scheme involving the jailed former Speaker of the House. If the tapes are verified, calls for Mr. Temer to face impeachment will mount.

19 May 2017 Expect a Hike on June 14 Unless Financial Conditions Tighten, a Lot (Publication Centre)

The probability of a rate hike on June 14, as implied by the fed funds future, has dropped to 90%, from a peak of 99% on May 5.

19 May 2020 Chile's Q1 GDP Showed Decent Growth, but Q2 will be Trashed (Publication Centre)

The Chilean economy was emerging in early Q1 from the self-inflicted shock from the social unrest in October, but the upturn was interrupted in early- March by the restrictive measures introduced to contain Covid-19.

19 May 2020 Full Recovery is a Long Way Off, but Markets Trade on News and Hopes (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell's comment on Sunday's "60 Minutes", that a recovery in the economy "may take a while... it could stretch through the end of next year" did not prevent a 3% jump in the S&P 500 yesterday.

2 Oct. 2015 Expect Decent September Payrolls, But Sluggish Wage Gains (Publication Centre)

Whatever you think is the underlying tr end in payroll growth, you probably should expect a modest undershoot in today's report, thanks to the persistent tendency for the first estimate of September payrolls to undershoot and then be revised higher. The good news is that the initial September error tends not to be as big as in August--the median revision from the first estimate to the third over the past six years has been 49K, compared to 66K--and it has declined recently. Over the past three years, September revisions have ranged from only 18K to 27K. Still, we can't ignore six straight years of initial undershoots.

2 October 2017 Four Reasons Why the Treasury Selloff Might be the Real Thing (Publication Centre)

The recent sell-off in Treasuries has not yet reached significant proportions.

21 February 2017 Wages Don't Necessarily Lead Inflation, but Unit Labor Costs do (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen said something which sounded odd, at first, in her Q&A at the Senate Banking Committee last Tuesday. It is "not clear" she argued, that the rate of growth of wages has a "direct impact on inflation".

21 Feb 2020 Buckle Up, Today's Eurozone PMIs Will Move Markets, We Think (Publication Centre)

Today's advance EZ PMIs will be watched more closely than usual.

21 Jan 2020 Colombia's Private Consumption Slowed in Q4, Will it Stabilize Soon? (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday confirmed that Colombian activity lost momentum in Q4, following an impressive performance in late Q2 and Q3. Retail sales rose 4.4% in November, down from 7.4% in October and 8.3% in Q3.

21 Jan 2020 The MPC Doesn't Always Deliver What Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

As we write, markets see a 70% chance that the MPC will cut Bank Rate on January 30.

21 July 2020 With Travel Now Slowing, all the Real-Time Data have Softened (Publication Centre)

We have been puzzled in recent weeks to see clear indications of softening economic activity--falling restaurant diner numbers, fewer small firms open for business and falling employment, and reduced footfall at businesses--while data from the travel business continued to improve.

21 December 2018 Consumption Will Firm in Mexico in Q4, Despite October's Poor Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's report on October private spending in Mexico was downbeat, suggesting that consumption started the fourth quarter on a weak footing.

21 December 2016 Is FDI Now the Main Driver of Eurozone Capital Outflows? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus is on track for a record-breaking year in 2016. Data yesterday showed that the current account surplus rose to €28.4B in October, from €27.7B in September. The trade surplus in goods fell, but this drag was offset by a higher services and income surplus, and a lower current transfers deficit.

20 November 2017 Terrible Timing for Tax Cuts -- if they Pass, the Fed Will Hike More Quickly (Publication Centre)

The passage of the House tax cut bill does not guarantee that the Senate will follow suit with its own bill, still less that both chambers will then be able to agree on a single bill which can then b e signed into law. As

20 Oct 2020 The U.S. Monetary Expansion Might Boost Inflation After Covid...or Not (Publication Centre)

If you were to return home to find your home ablaze, heaven forbid, and the fire department hard at work to douse the flames, would you be more concerned about your impending homelessness or the risk of water damage to your soft furnishings?

20 September 2017 Expect a December Hike (Publication Centre)

The FOMC won't raise rates today, but we expect that the announcement of the start of balance sheet reduction will not be interrupted by Harvey and Irma.

21 Aug 2020 Sterling Likely to Give Back Recent Gains as the Brexit Deadline Looms (Publication Centre)

Sterling has recovered virtually all of the ground it lost against the U.S. dollar in the spring, rising to $1.31 in recent days, from just $1.26 a month ago and a low of $1.15 in March.

21 March 2017 Real Wage Growth in the Eurozone is Being Hit by Higher Inflation (Publication Centre)

One of the key characteristics of this euro area business cycle has been near-zero inflation due to structurally weak domestic demand and depressed prices for globally traded goods and commodities. This has supported real incomes, despite sluggish nominal wage growth.

21 March 2018 Fiscal stimulus in the EZ won't cure global imbalances (Publication Centre)

Global current account imbalances are back on the agenda. In the U.S., economic policies threaten to blow out the twin deficit, while external surpluses in the euro area and Asia are rising.

22 August 2018 Will the French Economy Re-Assert Itself in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in France has been the key downside surprise in the Eurozone this year.

21 October. 2016 The BCB is Cautious, But its Inflation Fears Will Ease Soon (Publication Centre)

Brazil's monetary policy committee, the Copom, cut the Selic rate by 25bp to 14.0% in a unanimous decision, without bias, on Wednesday. This marks the start of the first easing cycle since 2012, and it arrives after 15 months with rates held at 14.25%.

22 August. 2016 Acceleration in German GDP Growth Likely Won't be Sustained (Publication Centre)

While we were out, the key economic news in the Eurozone was mostly positive. The main upside surprise came from the advance Q2 German GDP report, which showed that real GDP rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, slowing from the 0.7% jump in the first quarter.

22 December 2017 Optimism in the French Corporate Sector is High and Broad-Based (Publication Centre)

Sentiment in the French business sector ended this year on a high. The headline manufacturing index fell slightly to 112 in December, from an upwardly-revised 113 in November, but the aggregate sentiment gauge edged higher to a new cycle high of 112.

22 Jan 2020 Resilient Labour Market will Make the Doves Pause for Thought (Publication Centre)

November's labour market report provided timely reassurance, after last week's downside data surprises, that the economy did not grind to a halt at the end of last year.

21 Oct. 2015 Are Payrolls Slowing Because the Pool of Labor Has Evaporated? (Publication Centre)

One of the possible explanations for the slowdown in payroll in growth in recent months is that the pool of labor has shrunk to the point where employers can't find the people they want to hire. That's certainly one interpretation of our first chart, which shows that the NFIB survey's measure of jobs-hard-to-fill has risen to near-record levels even as payroll growth has slowed.

21 Oct 2020 Colombia's Recovery will Gather Steam, but Downside Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Data released on Monday confirmed that the Colombian economy slowed in August, following a solid rebound since mid Q2.

21 March 2018 Lower CPI Inflation in February Should Give the MPC Doubts (Publication Centre)

February's consumer price figures give the MPC reason to doubt the case for raising interest rates again as soon as May.

21 May 2020 EZ Core Inflation will Take a Hit, but a Sustained Slide is Unlikely (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI report for April confirmed that the Eurozone is edging towards deflation.

21 May 2020 FOMC Pondering Stronger Forward Guidance and de jure Curve Control (Publication Centre)

The FOMC kept policy unchanged at April's meeting-- rates stayed at zero, and all the market valves are wide open, as needed--but policymakers spent considerable time pondering what might happen over the next few months, and how policy could evolve.

21 November 2018 A More Data-Dependent Fed is Still not off the Labor Market Hook (Publication Centre)

Expectations for a March rate hike have dipped since Fed Vice-Chair Clarida's CNBC interview last Friday.

20 Nov. 2015 Economic Conditions Deteriorate in Brazil - No Bottom Just Yet (Publication Centre)

This week economic data highlighted the severity of Brazil's economic recession and the huge challenges it will face next year to return to growth. The recession further deepened in the third quarter with the economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--surprising, once again, to the downside in September. The index fell 0.5% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 6.2%, the steepest fall on record. The series is very volatile on a monthly basis, but the underlying trend remains grim.

20 Nov 2020 House Prices will Dip Next Year, Absent Fresh Government Support (Publication Centre)

Official house price figures confirm that the market is booming.

20 Aug 2019 July Dip in EZ Headline and Core Inflation Will Soon be Reversed (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Eurozone eased at the start of Q3.

20 Apr. Wage Growth is Picking Up, Pressuring the MPC to Act (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market figures likely will show that wage growth is bouncing back from a soft patch in late 2015. As a result, the MPC won't be able to sit on its hands much longer, especially in light of the continued dire news on productivity.

20 Dec 2019 Retailers aren't Really Having a Nightmare Before Christmas (Publication Centre)

The run of weak retail sales figures continued yesterday, with the release of November's official data.

20 Feb 2020 What China's Doing about the Labour Market & Bankruptcy Threat (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's State Council meeting implies that the authorities are starting to take more serious coordinated fiscal measures to counter the virus threat to the labour market and to banks.

20 Feb. 2015 Colombia's Strong Domestic Activity is Neutralizing Oil Price Hit (Publication Centre)

Colombia's oil industry--one of the key drivers of the country's economic growth over the last decade--has been stumbling over recent months, raising concerns about the country's growth prospects. But the recent weakness of the mining sector is in stark contrast with robust internal demand and solid domestic production.

2 September. 2016 Downside Risk for Hourly Earnings - Two Calendar Quirks Coincide (Publication Centre)

The key market risk in the August employment report is the hourly earnings number. The consensus forecast is for a 0.2% month-to-month increase, in line with the underlying trend, but the balance of risks is firmly to the downside.

2 Sept 2019 Japan's Consumption Story is on Thin Ice, even if Front-Loading Helps (Publication Centre)

The Japanese government's plan to smooth out the consumption cliff-edge generated by October's sales tax hike is either going too well, or consumers now are facing fundamental headwinds.

2 October 2017 Will the Real Eurozone Core CPI Measure Please Stand Up? (Publication Centre)

Friday's inflation data in the Eurozone added a dovish twist to the story ahead of the key ECB meeting later this month.

2 October 2018 How Bad Was the Hit to EZ Auto Production in Q3? (Publication Centre)

The industrial sector in the EZ slowed further at the end of Q3.

2 Sep 2020 Brazil's Q2 GDP Plunges, but Q3 Numbers will Be Strong-Looking (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian economy fell into recession over the first half of the year due to the severity of the Covid shock on domestic demand.

2 Sep 2020 Soft August CPI Data will Push the ECB to Lift the PEPP This Month (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a busy day in the EZ

20 February 2019 Robust Labour Market Implies MPC Won't Dally After Brexit Risks Fade (Publication Centre)

Signs of a slowdown in the labour market data are conspicuously absent.

20 Jan 2020 Weak December Sales Are Noise, Consumer Fundamentals are Solid (Publication Centre)

Expectations that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its meeting on January 30 received a further shot in the arm at the end of last week, when December's retail sales figures were released.

20 June 2019 All Eyes on Osaka, if the Trade Talks Succeed, the Fed Won't Ease in July (Publication Centre)

The tone of Fed Chair Powell's opening comments at the press conference yesterday was much more dovish than the statement, which did little more than most analysts expected.

20 June 2017 As the Balance Sheet Shrinks, how can we Assess the Fed's Stance? (Publication Centre)

The initial pace of the Fed's balance sheet run-off, which we expect to start in October, will be very low. At first, the balance sheet will shrink by only $10B per month, split between $6B Treasuries and $4B mortgages.

20 June. 2016 How Can the Fed Escape From the Loop of Endless Inaction? (Publication Centre)

For some time, the Fed has been locked in a loop of endless inaction. Every time the economic data improve and the Fed signals it is preparing to raise rates, either markets--both domestic and global-- react badly, and/or a patch of less good data appear. The nervous, cautious Yellen Fed responds by dialling back the talk of tightening, and markets relax again, until the next time.

20 May 2020 Coronavirus Delivers a Tough Blow to Argentina's Struggling Economy (Publication Centre)

Hard data released in Argentina over the last month showed that the economy was struggling in early Q1, even before the Covid-19 hit.

20 May 2020 Wages to Fall Outright as Labour Market Slack Accumulates (Publication Centre)

We hope never to see another labour market report as bad as yesterday's, though the omens aren't good.

20 July 2020 The First Re-Reopening will be in Arizona in August, Other States Later (Publication Centre)

Just over four weeks after Mike Pence's spectacularly badly-timed Wall Street Journal Op-ed, entitled "There Isn't a Coronavirus Second Wave", the U.S. recorded 465K new cases in the week ended Saturday, easily the worst week of the pandemic to date.

20 July 2020 Is the Bank of Korea's Easing Cycle Over? Not Quite (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea voted unanimously last week to keep the benchmark base rate unchanged, at 0.50%.

20 Jan 2020 Argentina's Inflation Ended 2019 Badly, but the BCRA is Cutting Rates (Publication Centre)

Argentina's inflation ended 2019 badly, and it is still too early to bet on a protracted downtrend, even after the renewed economic slowdown.

20 Jan 2020 The ECB Won't Flinch Over the Q4 Jump in EZ Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed euro area CPI report for December confirmed that inflation pushed higher at the end of last year. Headline inflation increased to 1.3% year-over- year, from 1.0% in November, lifted primarily by higher energy inflation, rising by 3.4pp, to +0.2%. Inflation in food, alcohol and tobacco also rose, albeit marginally, to 2.1%, from 2.0% in November.

20 Jan. 2015 - Wage Gains Will be Slowed by Low CPI Inflation, but Not by Much (Publication Centre)

We have been hearing a good deal recently about the risk that the plunge in headline inflation will feed back into the labor market, keeping the pace of wage gains lower than they would otherwise have been and, therefore, slowing the pace of Fed tightening.

20 Jan. 2016 Wage Growth Will Push the "Data Driven" Governor to Hike this Year (Publication Centre)

Bank Governor Mark Carney reiterated in a speech yesterday that he wants to see sustained momentum in GDP growth, domestic cost pressures firm and core inflation rise further towards 2%, before raising interest rates. We doubt he will have long to wait on the last two points, given the tightness of the labour market.

18 September 2017 How Severely Would a Rate Hike Slow the Economy? (Publication Centre)

The MPC took an unprecedented step last week to pave the way for an interest rate rise.

2 Jan 2020 Bad Omens for Q4 Consumers' Spending Growth in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Data on EZ consumption were soft while we were enjoying our Christmas break. The advance EC consumer confidence index slipped to a three-year low of -8.1 in December, from -7.2 in November, breaking its recent tight range.

16 May 2019 Chinese Activity Comes Back Down to Earth--and Then Some--in April (Publication Centre)

Official industrial production growth in China plunged to 5.4% year-over-year in April, from 8.5% in March.

16 March 2018 Kuroda Prepares Parliament to Foot the BoJ's Exit Bill (Publication Centre)

Governor Kuroda dropped further hints in speeches earlier this week that interest rates will be going up. He discussed methods of exit, in loose terms.

16 May 2019 Headline EZ GDP and Real M1 Point to a Robust Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data in the EZ provided a little more evidence on what happened in Q1.

16 Nov 2020 Separating Signal From Noise in the EZ Labour Market Data (Publication Centre)

We'll skip quickly past Friday's second Q3 growth estimate, which showed that EZ GDP jumped by 12.6% quarter-on-quarter, rebounding from an 11.8% crash in Q2, little changed from the first estimate.

16 Oct 2019 China's Q3 GDP Likely was Dismal, Recovery Still Pending (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2.

16 Mar 2020 Is EZ Fiscal Policy Finally Stepping Up? And if So, What will it Do? (Publication Centre)

EZ investors are still trying to come to grips with last week's terrifying price action, culminating in the 12.5% crash in equities on Thursday

16 July 2020 The ECB will Hold Fire Today, but More Stimulus is Coming (Publication Centre)

Today's ECB meeting will be a snoozer.

16 Jan 2020 BoJ Likely to Stamp its Approval on the Budget with a GDP Upgrade (Publication Centre)

The BoJ is likely to be thankful next week for a relatively benign environment in which to conduct its monetary policy meeting.

16 February 2017 Slowdown in Wage Growth Further Reduces 2017 Rate Hike Chances (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's labour market data delivered a further blow to hopes that consumers' spending will retain enough momentum for the MPC to press ahead and raise interest rates this year. The most striking development is the decline in year-over-year growth in average weekly wages to just 1.9% in December, from 2.9% in November.

16 January 2019 Brazil's Black Friday Drove Sales Higher Will the Splurge Reverse (Publication Centre)

Brazil's consumer sluggishness in Q3 and early Q4 eased in November.

16 July 2019 Italy's Economy is Still on the Ropes, even as Markets Soar (Publication Centre)

Financial markets and economic data don't always go hand-in-hand, but it is rare to find the divergence presently on display in Italy.

16 July 2020 State Initial Claims Likely Down Again, but Lookout for PUA Claims (Publication Centre)

The weekly initial jobless claims numbers have been a useful proxy for the real-time performance of the economy since Covid-19 struck.

16 Oct 2019 Colombia's Economy Solid in Q3, but Expect a Challenging Q4 (Publication Centre)

Evidence of accelerating economic activity in Colombia continues to mount, in stark contrast with its regional peers and DM economies.

16 Oct 2019 Core Inflation in France is Rising, but the Devil is in the Detail (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final inflation data in France for September were misleadingly soft.

17 Aug 2020 Headline EZ Data are Still Gloomy, and That's O.K. for Markets (Publication Centre)

Friday's EZ data provide a good base from which to recap the main themes midway through the third quarter. The second estimate of Q2 GDP confirmed the initial headline that output plunged by 12.1% quarter- on-quarter, extending the decline from a 3.6% fall in Q1.

17 Apr 2020 U.S. Case Growth Slowing to Rates Where First Euro Lockdowns Eased (Publication Centre)

The absence of an internationally agreed set of guidelines for easing lockdowns means that such decisions ultimately are political in nature.

17 Dec 2019 Colombia Ends the Year Solidly, but Downside Risks for 2020 Emerge (Publication Centre)

Incoming activity data from Colombia over the past quarter have been surprisingly strong, despite many domestic and external threats.

17 Dec 2019 The MPC won't Dwell on December's Weak Flash PMIs (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, December's flash Markit/CIPS PMIs warrant the MPC cutting Bank Rate at its meeting on Thursday.

17 Feb 2020 Growth Forecasts in the EZ are about to come down (Publication Centre)

Friday' second Q4 GDP estimate revealed that the EZ economy barely grew at the end of 2019. The report confirmed that GDP rose by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, slowing from a 0.3% rise in Q3, but the headline only narrowly avoided downward revision to zero, at just 0.058%

16 Sept. 2015 Will Downbeat Sentiment Push the ECB into More QE this Year? (Publication Centre)

Economic data are telling a story of a strengthening recovery, but downbeat investor sentiment points to a more difficult environment. The headline ZEW expectations index fell to a ten-month low of 12.1 in September, from 25.0 in August. This takes sentiment back to levels not seen before QE was announced, highlighting the increasing worry that deflation risks and low growth in China will derail the recovery. We don't agree, but we can't be sure the ECB thinks the same, and risks of additional stimulus this year have increased.

16 Sept 2020 The Upturn in Redundancies is Only Just Getting Going (Publication Centre)

The latest official data continue to understate the collapse in labour demand since Covid-19.

16 Oct 2019 Momentum in Wage Growth Continues to Tie the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)

The Brexit-related slump in corporate confidence finally has taken its toll on hiring.

16 October 2018 No Further Step Up in Wage Growth Likely in August (Publication Centre)

Consensus expectations for August's labour market data, released today, look well grounded.

16 Sept 2019 Textbook EZ Wage Data, but the Policy Response Won't Be (Publication Centre)

Last week's policy announcement by the ECB and Mr. Draghi's plea to EU politicians to deliver a fiscal boost, indicate that we're living in extraordinary economic times.

16 Sept 2020 The Fed will Emphasize its Pursuit of Maximum Employment Today (Publication Centre)

It's not clear if the first FOMC meeting since the release of the Fed's new Monetary Policy Strategy will bring any real shift in policy, though we think it unlikely that policymakers will seek immediately to add weight to their forward interest rate guidance.

16 Dec 2019 Will President Fernández Solve the Debt Crisis in Argentina? (Publication Centre)

The new Argentinian president, Alberto Fernández, will have to make a quick start on the titanic task of cleaning up the economic and social mess left by his predecessor, Mauricio Macri.

16 Dec 2019 Has the Tories' Landslide Paved the Way for a Rate Hike Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Markets greatly cheered the Conservatives' landslide victory on Friday, but remained cautious on the potential for the MPC to return to the tightening cycle it started in 2017.

15 March 2017 Headline Inflation in Germany will Ease in the Next Few Months (Publication Centre)

The German inflation rate soared at the start of 2017, but it likely will fall in the next few months. Final February data yesterday showed that inflation rose to 2.2% in February, from 1.9% in January, consistent with the initial estimate. Since December, headline inflation in Germany, and in the EZ as a whole, has been lifted by two factors. Base effects from the 2016 crash in oil prices have pushed energy inflation higher, and a supply shock in fresh produce--due to heavy snowfall in southern Europe--has lifted food inflation.

15 June. Reasons to Remain Calm About Brexit Risk (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, six of the eight opinion polls conducted over the seven days indicate that the U.K. will vote for Brexit on June 23. Our daily updated Chart of the Week, on page 3, shows the current state of play.

15 March 2017 Rates Will Rise by 25bp Today, but Extra Dots More Likely in June (Publication Centre)

The Fed will hike by 25 basis points today, citing the tightening labor market as the key reason to press ahead with the process of policy normalization. We think the case for adding an extra dot to the plot for both this year and next is powerful.

15 May 2020 Banxico Lowers Rates, Signals More to Come as the Economy Plunges (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers stuck to the script yesterday and voted unanimously to cut the main rate by 50bp to 5.50%, its lowest level in more than three years.

15 May 2020 Through the Looking Glass With Misleading EZ Economic Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data provided further evidence of the EZ economy's response to the Covid-19 shock, though we recommend that investors take the numbers with a pinch of salt. In Germany, the final CPI report for April showed that headline inflation slipped to 0.9% year-over-year, from 1.4% in March, trivially above the first estimate, 0.8%.

15 June 2020 The Southern Second Wave will be the Exception, not the Rule (Publication Centre)

The surge in Covid-19 case and hospitalizations-- and, in due course, deaths--in some southern states since they began to reopen probably is not a sign of what is likely to happen as the populous states in the Northeast and Midwest reopen too.

15 June 2017 The MPC's Minutes Will Sound Balanced, Despite Surging Inflation (Publication Centre)

Today's MPC meeting and minutes are the first opportunity for Committee members to speak out in over a month, now that election "purdah" rules have lifted.

15 Jan 2020 The Rise in Continuing Jobless Claims is No Cause for Concern (Publication Centre)

The weekly jobless claims numbers are due Thursday, as usual, but in the wake of a flood of emails from readers, all asking a variant of the same question-- should we be worried about the rise in continuing jobless claims?--we want to address the issue now.

15 January 2018 Volatility in the Eurozone's Bond Markets is on the Rise (Publication Centre)

Markets' reaction last week to the ECB's October meeting accounts--see here--shows that investors are beginning to take seriously the idea of an inflection point in Eurozone monetary policy.

15 July 2020 Brazil's Macro Conditions Seem to be Stabilising, Rate Cuts During H2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession carried over into the middle of Q2, but with diminishing intensity in some economic sectors.

15 July 2020 Slowing Rent Increases Emerge as a Key Drag on the Core CPI (Publication Centre)

We aren't much bothered by the one-tenth overshoot in the June core CPI, reported yesterday.

15 Nov 2019 The Current Soft Patch in Retail Sales won't Last Long (Publication Centre)

October's 0.1% month-to-month fall in retail sales volumes was disappointing, following substantial improvements in the CBI, BRC and BDO survey measures.

15 Nov 2019 Banxico Cut Rates, Brazil's Economy was Firing on all Cylinders in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The two biggest economies in the region have taken divergent paths in recent months, with the economic recovery strengthening in Brazil, but slowing sharply in Mexico.

15 Sept 2020 The Manufacturing Sector is Losing Steam, but Autos have Further to go (Publication Centre)

Momentum in the rebound in economic activity has faded over the past couple months, housing and auto sales aside.

15 October 2018 Chinese Trade: Import from Anywhere but the U.S. (Publication Centre)

China's September trade numbers show that, far from reducing the surplus with the U.S., the trade wars so far have pushed it up to a new record.

18 Sept 2020 The Bank of Japan Still has Plenty of Room to Expand Covid Support (Publication Centre)

The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan yesterday kept its main settings unchanged, as widely expected. In another 8-to-1 vote, members maintained the policy balance rate and the ten-year yield target at -0.10% and "around zero", respectively, while the forward guidance still pledges to keep "short- and long-term policy interest rates... at their present or lower levels".

16 Apr 2020 Jobless Claims Look Set to Fall Sharply, but Remain Insanely High (Publication Centre)

For all the excitement generated by yesterday's raft of appalling economic reports, the weekly jobless claims numbers still offer the best, and almost real-time, guide to the big picture.

16 Aug 2019 Eurozone Governments Have Fiscal Room, Will they use it (Publication Centre)

"Is EZ fiscal stimulus on the way?" is a question that we receive a lot these days.

15 Oct 2019 China's Year-over-Year Trade Figures are Overly Grim (Publication Centre)

China's September imports missed expectations, but commentators and markets tend to focus on the year-over-year numbers.

15 Oct 2019 Below-Consensus September CPI Won't Strengthen Case for Stimulus (Publication Centre)

We expect September's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation held steady at 1.7%, below the 1.8% consensus.

15 Nov 2019 Chinese Growth Momentum Under Attack from all Angles (Publication Centre)

China's main activity data for October disappointed across the board, strengthening our conviction that the PBoC probably isn't quite done with easing this year.

15 Nov 2019 More Evidence Emerges of Stabilisation in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second Q3 GDP estimate confirmed that the EZ economy expanded by 0.2% quarter-on- quarter in Q3, the same pace as in Q2, leaving the year-over-year rate unchanged at 1.2%.

15 November 2017 Too Soon to Claim Peak Inflation, But it Will Fall Swiftly in 2018 (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 3.0% in October, undershooting our forecast and the consensus by 0.1 percentage point and the MPC's forecast by 0.2pp.

15 November 2018 From #Euroboom to #Eurogloom What Next for the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second estimate of GDP confirmed that Eurozone growth slowed significantly in Q3.

17 Feb 2020 The Coronavirus is a Threat to LatAm, But it Economies Won't Collapse (Publication Centre)

Over the past 30 years China's role in LatAm and the global economy has increased sharply. Its share of world trade has surged, and its exports have gained significant market share in LatAm.

15 September The MPC Signals Higher Rates Soon, but it is Racked With Doubts (Publication Centre)

The MPC surprised markets, and ourselves, yesterday with the escalation of its hawkish rhetoric in the minutes of its policy meeting.

18 June. 2015 Fed Still on Course for Two Hikes This Year, and Maybe Three (Publication Centre)

The gloom which descended on the FOMC in April has lifted, mostly, and policymakers remain on track for two rate hikes this year, likely starting in September. The median fed funds forecast for the end of this year remains at 0.625%, implying a target range of 0.5-to-0.75%.

18 June 2020 EZ Energy Inflation has Troughed, the Core is still Uncertain (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI data for May confirmed that the EZ economy is within touching distance of headline deflation.

18 Mar 2020 What is the Cost of Covering EZ Workers' Covid-19 Income Loss (Publication Centre)

Wage growth in the euro area slowed slightly last year, consistent with the rapid deceleration in economic growth since the end of 2017, though it remained robust overall.

18 Mar. 2015 "Patient" to go, thanks to better growth, Labor market forecasts (Publication Centre)

We expect the Fed to drop "patient" from its post-meeting statement today, paving the way for a rate hike in June, data permitting. And the data will permit, in our view, despite what seems to have been a long run of disappointing numbers, and the likelihood that inflation will fall further below the Fed's 2% informal target in the near-term.

18 May 2017 Will Strong Employment Growth Be Sustained? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's labour market figures revealed that employment growth has picked up this year, despite the shadow cast over the medium-term economic outlook by Brexit. The 122K, or 0.4%, quarter-on-quarter rise in employment in Q1 was the biggest since Q2 2016.

18 June 2018 When is a BoJ Dove not a Dove? When the Experiment has Failed (Publication Centre)

Governor Kuroda has sounded increasingly dovish recently.

18 July 2018 The Subdued Trend in Wage Growth is Unlikely to Improve Soon (Publication Centre)

The long-awaited decisive upturn in wage growth still hasn't emerged. Year-over-year growth in average weekly wages, excluding bonuses, held steady at 2.6% in May.

18 Feb 2020 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Late Q4, but it Will Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively weak footing. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 0.3% month- to-month, pushing down the adjusted year-over- year rate to 0.3%, from a downwardly-revised 0.7% increase in November.

18 Feb 2020 December Data to Sustain Picture of Solid Job Gains But Slowing Wages (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market report looks set to be a mixed bag, with growth in employment remaining strong, but further signs that momentum in average weekly wages has faded.

18 Feb. 2016 Construction Investment Turned Up in Q4 - More Upside Ahead (Publication Centre)

Fourth quarter construction activity in the Eurozone was much better than in Q3, despite a dip in December. Output fell 0.6% month-to-month in the final month of the year, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -0.4% from a revised 0.3% in November.

18 July 2018 Peru's Economy Rebounded in the First Half Will the Strength Continue (Publication Centre)

Data released over the weekend confirm that the Peruvian economy enjoyed a strong second quarter. The economic activity index rose 6.4% year-over-year in May, well above market expectations, and up from 3.2% in Q1.

18 May 2020 How to Decipher This Week's Labour Market Report (Publication Centre)

This week's labour market report--primarily reflecting conditions in March, though some data refer to April--will lift the veil on the initial economic damage from Covid-19, though the full horror will emerge only later.

18 May 2020 America's Three-Legged Recovery Stool Looks Less Shaky by the Day (Publication Centre)

In recent client "meetings" we have been emphasizing the idea that a sustained recovery in the economy over the summer depends on the solidity of a three-legged stool.

18 October. 2016 Headline Inflation is Set to Soar, Rendezvous With Core Next Spring (Publication Centre)

In September last year, headline CPI inflation stood at exactly zero. Today, we expect to see a 1.5% print, thanks mostly to the fading impact of falling energy prices.

18 October 2017 Weak Underlying Price Pressures Give the MPC Scope to Wait (Publication Centre)

A November interest rate rise is far from the done deal that markets still anticipate, even though CPI inflation rose to 3.0% in September from 2.9% in August.

18 Sept 2019 Will the Fed Forecast Meaningfully Higher Tariff-Induced Inflation (Publication Centre)

We'd be very surprised to see anything other than a 25bp rate cut from the Fed today, alongside a repeat of the key language from July, namely, that the Committee "... will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion".

18 Sept 2020 Near-real-time Data Starting to Capture the Hit from Falling Benefits (Publication Centre)

The near-real-time economic data have been hard to read recently, because of distortions caused by the Labor Day holiday.

17 Feb. 2016 Don't Dwell on December's Disappointing Wage Growth (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market figures look set to show that wage growth has continued to slow, fuelling speculation that interest rates are going nowhere soon. But a close examination of why wage growth has weakened suggests investors will be surprised by a robust rebound later this year.

18 October 2017 Core Inflation in the EZ Dipped in September, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI report in the Eurozone confirmed that headline inflation was unchanged at 1.5% in September.

18 Oct 2019 MPs Are Set to Reject the New Brexit Deal, An Election Still is Imminent (Publication Centre)

PM Johnson has conceded considerable ground over the terms of Brexit for Northern Ireland in order to get a deal over the line in time for MPs to vote on it on Saturday, before the Benn Act requires him to seek an extension.

18 May 2020 How Quickly will the EZ Economy Rebound from Covid-19? (Publication Centre)

Friday's second Q1 GDP estimate confirmed that lockdowns to halt the spread of Covid-19 hurt the EZ economy in Q1. Real GDP plunged by 3.8% quarter-on- quarter, following a 0.1% rise in Q4, in line with the first estimate.

18 Nov 2019 Colombia's Economy Remains the Star Performer in LatAm (Publication Centre)

Most of the Andean economies have been hit by the turmoil roiling the global economy in the past few quarters. But modest recovery in commodity prices in Q3, and relatively solid domestic fundamentals helped them to avoid a protracted slowdown in Q2 and most of Q3.

18 November. 2016 Banxico is the Victim of Trump- Related Collateral Damage (Publication Centre)

Mexico's central bank, Banxico, last night capitulated again, reacting to the depreciation of the MXN by increasing interest rates by 50bp--for the fourth time this year--to 5.25%.

18 Oct 2019 Food Inflation Woes Intensify in Asia, with No Sign Yet of Respite (Publication Centre)

Rapidly increasing food inflation is creating all sorts of dilemmas for policymakers in Asia's giants.

18 December 2017 Has Plunging Healthcare Inflation Held Down Nominal Wage Gains? (Publication Centre)

The shortfall in nominal wage growth, relative to measures of labor market tightness, remains the single biggest mystery of this business cycle.

18 Mar 2020 How Long Until the Labour Market Rolls Over? (Publication Centre)

The labour market was pretty robust before the coronavirus crisis.

17 June 2020 Further Proof of Severe Contraction in Q2, but Signs of Revival from June (Publication Centre)

Incoming data continue to highlight the severe hit from the pandemic on the real economies of the region, but some surveys and leading indicators are already pointing to a gradual upturn from June onwards.

17 June 2020 April's Decline in Employment is Just the Start (Publication Centre)

At first glance, the latest labour market data appear to be contradictory.

17 June 2020 May Retail Sales were Startling, but not as Good as the Headlines (Publication Centre)

Here's something we didn't expect to write: The control measure of retail sales in May was slightly higher than in February.

17 Mar 2020 Bolder Policy Action Required to Prevent a Prolonged Recession (Publication Centre)

Signs that the economy has been crippled by people's response to the Covid-19 outbreak continued to emerge yesterday.

17 March 2017 Weak Wage Numbers will Continue to Stymie the MPC's Hawks (Publication Centre)

The minutes of March's MPC meeting were more newsworthy than we--and the markets--expected. Kristin Forbes broke ranks and voted to raise Bank Rate to 0.50%, from 0.25%.

17 July 2020 The Surge in Retail Sales is not all that it Seems--and it Might not Last (Publication Centre)

Headline retail sales in June were just 1% below their January peak, and about 3% below the level they would have reached if the pre-Covid trend had continued.

17 July 2018 Powell Set to Re-affirm the "Gradual" Approach to Rates, for Now (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony today will likely re-affirm that policymakers still think "gradual" rate hikes are appropriate and that the risks to the economy remain "roughly balanced".

17 Jan 2020 Brazil's Black Friday Lifted Sales in November, but Less than Expected (Publication Centre)

Brazil's consumer resilience in Q3 continued to November, but retail sales undershot market expectations, suggesting that the sector is not yet accelerating and that downside risks remain.

17 February 2017 EZ consumers' demand for new cars will slow in 2017 (Publication Centre)

EZ households' demand for new cars was off to a strong start in 2017. Car registrations in the euro area jumped 10.9% year-over-year in January, accelerating from a 2.1% rise in December. We have to discount the headline level of sales by about a fifth to account for dealers' own registrations. Even with this provision, though, the January report was solid. Growth rebounded in France and Germany, and a 27.1% surge in Dutch car registrations also lifted the headline. We think car registrations will rise about 1.5% quarter-onquarter in Q1, rebounding from a weak Q4. But this does not change the story of downside risks to private spending.

17 Jan 2020 Phase One Deal Puts a Grey Cloud Over End-2020, Silver Lining now (Publication Centre)

To avoid rocking the 2020 boat, the Phase One trade deal needed to be sufficiently vague, so that neither side, and particularly Mr. Trump, would have much cause to kick up a fuss around missed targets.

18 Dec. 2015 Macri Starts the Clean-up Job, Starting with the Overvalued Peso (Publication Centre)

The new Argentinian president has started to clean up the mess left by his predecessor, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. President Mauricio Macri lifted capital controls, and let the ARS float freely yesterday. The peso tumbled about 30%, getting close to 14 ARS per USD, where it had been trading in the black market. The government also announced that it is on track to receive about USD 12-to-15B, to build up the battered foreign reserves, and to contain any overshooting. This money will come through many channels, for example, grain producers have announced that they will sell about USD400M a day over the coming weeks.

17 January 2019 Rising Services Inflation Matters More than the Falling Headline Rate (Publication Centre)

The most eye-catching aspect of December's consumer prices report was the pick-up in core inflation to 1.9%, from 1.8% in November, above the no-change consensus.

17 Oct 2019 Korea's Q3 GDP Report to Highlight the Futility of the BoK's Second Cut (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea voted yesterday to lower its policy base rate to 1.25%, from 1.50%.

17 January 2017 Peru's Growth is Solid, Will Copper Prices Offer More Support in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic activity data from Peru signalled that the relatively firm business cycle continues. The monthly GDP index accelerated to 3.6% year-over-year in November, rising from 2.1% in October, but marginally below the 4.4% on average in Q3. Growth continued to be driven by mining output, including oil and gas, which rose 15% year-over- year. The opening of several new mines explains the upturn, and we expect the sector to remain key for the Peruvian economy this year.

18 August 2017 Higher Core Inflation in the Eurozone Should be a No Brainer (Publication Centre)

Inflation data are known to defy economists' forecasts, but it should in principle b e straightforward to predict the cyclical path of EZ core inflation. It is the longest lagging indicator in the economy, and leading indicators currently signal that core inflation pressures are rising.

18 Dec 2019 Banxico to Cut Rates Even Further, but the COPOM is Almost Done (Publication Centre)

Banxico will meet tomorrow, and we expect Mexican policymakers to cut the main interest rate by 25bp, to 7.25%.

18 Dec 2019 Labour Market Data Remain Strong Enough to Keep Rate Cuts at Bay (Publication Centre)

The labour market remains healthy enough to persuade the MPC to keep its powder dry over the coming months.

17 Oct 2019 The Upward Trend in Domestically- Generated Inflation Is Clear (Publication Centre)

The case for the MPC to hold back from implementing more stimulus was bolstered by September's consumer prices figures.

18 Aug 2020 Retail Sales Likely were Well Above Pre-Covid Levels in July (Publication Centre)

July's retail sales report, released on Friday, looks set to be the third in a row to surprise the consensus to the upside.

18 Dec. 2014 - Fed on Course to Raise Rates in Spring, Unless the Data Intervene (Publication Centre)

If clarity is the first test of written English, the FOMC failed miserably yesterday. "Considerable time" is gone, but the new formulation--"the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy"--was not clearly defined, though the FOMC did say it is "consistent with its previous statement".

17 October. 2016 Eurozone Car Registrations Slowed Significantly in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Growth in new EZ car sales remained brisk last month, growth slowed in Q3. New registrations rose 9.4% year-over-year in September, marginally lower than the 9.6% increase in August. Growth in France fell most, sliding to 2.5% from 6.7% in August, but sales in Germany picked up to 9.4%, from 8.3%.

17 Sept 2020 The Fed Adopts Outcome-Based Guidance, Raising the Rate Hike Bar (Publication Centre)

The Fed yesterday formally adopted outcome-based forward guidance, setting out the conditions under which rates will rise: "The Committee... expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range [0-to- 0.25%] until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time."

18 April 2018 Wage Growth Still isn't Building Momentum, so why Rush to Hike? (Publication Centre)

ebruary's labour market data failed to make a resounding case for the MPC to raise interest rates in May, prompting markets to reduce the probability attached to a hike next month to 85%, from nearly 90% before the data were released.

18 Apr. Britain's Employment Miracle is Finally Losing its Shine (Publication Centre)

One of the most eye-catching features of the U.K.'s economic recovery has been the strength of job creation. It took seven-to-eight years for employment to return to its pre-recession peaks after the recessions of the early 1980s and 1990s. By contrast, employment rescaled its 2008 peak in mid-2012, and it has risen by a further 6% since.

29 Apr. 2015 Upbeat French consumers, but unemployment is a dark spot (Publication Centre)

Household sentiment in France continues to improve, consistent with tailwinds from low energy prices and accommodative monetary policy. INSEE's measure of consumer confidence rose to 94 in April, up from 93 in March, the highest since November 2010.

Guardian - Unemployment in US and UK 'may be worse than in Great Depression' (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the latest data from the Eurozone

17 January 2019 How Many Government Workers are Making Unemployment Claims (Publication Centre)

The weekly jobless claims numbers tend to be choppy around the turn of the year, and our take on the seasonal adjustments points to a clear increase in today's report, for the week ended January 11, even without the impact of the government shutdown.

3 November 2017 Expecting Rocketing Payrolls, AHE and Unemployment to Disappoint? (Publication Centre)

We expect a 350K print for October payrolls today. The ADP report was stronger than we expected, suggesting that the post-hurricane rebound will recover more of the ground lost in September than we initially expected.

7 May 2018 Unemployment Back on Track for 3½% by Year-End (Publication Centre)

It's entirely possible--though impossible to prove--that the weather is responsible for the below-consensus April payroll number.

14 February 2019 A Bad Start for Workers in Korea, as the 2019 Minimum Wage Bites (Publication Centre)

Korea's jobs report for January was nasty. The unemployment rate spiked to 4.4%, from 3.8% in December, marking the highest level in nine years.

10 Sept. 2015 Soaring Job Openings Signal Further Labor Market Tightening (Publication Centre)

We expected a modest correction in the number of job openings in July, following the surge over the previous few months, but instead yesterday's JOLTS report revealed that openings jumped by a mind-boggling 8.1% to a new record high. In the three months to July, the number of openings soared at a 35% annualized rate. As a result, the Beveridge Curve, which compares the number of openings to the unemployment rate, is now further than ever from normalizing after shifting out decisively in 2010.

11 Feb. 2016 March is Still in Play, but Only if Data and Markets Cooperate (Publication Centre)

If Fed Chair Yellen's objective yesterday was to deliver studied ambiguity in her Testimony--and we believe it was--she succeeded. She offered plenty to both sides of the rate debate. For the hawks, she noted that unemployment is now "...in line with the median of FOMC participants' most recent estimates of its longer-run normal level", and that inflation is still expected to return to the 2% target, "...once oil and import prices stop falling".

14 Jan. 2015 - Small Firms Recovery Accelerates, but Labor Costs are Rising (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data were second-tier in the eyes of the markets, but not, perhaps in the eyes of the Fed. The continued surge in job openings, which reached a 14-year high in December, means that the Beveridge Curve--which links the number of job openings to the unemployment rate--shows no signs at all of returning to normal.

15 June 2017 Yellen to Markets: Core Inflation is Noisy, the Labor Market is the Key (Publication Centre)

The Fed's action, statement, and forecasts, and Chair Yellen's press conference, made it very clear the Fed is torn between the dovish signals from the recent core inflation data, and the much more hawkish message coming from the rapid decline in the unemployment rate.

10 June. 2015 Tightening Labor market pushing up small firms' pricing plans? (Publication Centre)

The May NFIB survey and the April JOLTS report, both released yesterday, paint a coherent, if not yet definitive, picture of labor market developments which should alarm the Fed. The data suggest that the true labor supply, in the eyes of potential employers, is much smaller than implied by the BLS's measures of broad unemployment.

15 June. 2016 Will Political Risk and Uncertainty Overwhelm the EZ Economy? (Publication Centre)

Based on key economic indicators, the Eurozone economy is doing splendidly, relative to its performance in recent years. Real GDP has been growing at 1.6%-to-1.7% year-over-year since the first quarter of last year, bank credit has expanded, and the unemployment rate is declining.

16 July. 2015 Upbeat Yellen Dismisses European Risk - Focus Back on U.S. Data (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen said nothing very new in the core of her Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday, repeating her view that rates likely will have to rise this year but policy will remain accommodative, and that the labor market is less tight than the headline unemployment rate suggests. The upturn in wage growth remains "tentative", in her view, making the next two payroll reports before the September FOMC meeting key to whether the Fed moves then.

*September 2018 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Takes the Trade High Road..The BOJ will Act Before Markets Expect Unemployment Upshift Rules out 2018 BOK Hike

*November 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Sub -4% Unemployment is coming, and soon...How will the Fed respond?

16 Mar. 2016 EZ Employment Rising Steadily, but Structural Challenges Persist (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone labour market is slowly healing following two severe recessions since 2008. Unemployment fell to a two-year low of 10.3% in January, and yesterday's quarterly labour force survey was upbeat. Fourth quarter employment rose 1.2% year-over-year, up from 1.1% in Q3, pushing total EZ employment to a new post-crisis high of 152 million.

*July 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Fed plans to keep on hiking...falling unemployment is the key, not the softer CPI

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Jobless Claims Decline (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Unemployment

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.K. Pay Growth Flattens Off (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Pay Growth and Unemployment

1 November 2017 2017 Eurozone Macroeconomic Data Don't get Much Better than this (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a nearly perfect day for investors in the Eurozone. The Q3 GDP data were robust, unemployment fell, and core inflation dipped slightly, vindicating markets' dovish outlook for the ECB.

04 Jan. 2016 Uncertainty in Brazil Contrasts With Mexico's Benign Outlook (Publication Centre)

While we were out, Brazil's economic, fiscal and political position continued to deteriorate further. The recession deepened in the fourth quarter, with Brazil's economic activity index surprising yet again to the downside in October, falling for the eight consecutive month. The index fell 0.6% month-to-month and 6.4% year-over-year, the biggest contraction since the index began in 2004. And the prospects for first quarter consumption and industrial output have deteriorated substantially. Unemployment increased further in November, and inflation continues to rise, with the mid-month CPI--the IPCA-15 index-- increasing 1.2% month-to-month in November, after a 0.9% increase in October.

10 August. 2015 While We Were Out... (Publication Centre)

...The Fed told investors that it now requires only "some further improvement" in labor market conditions before starting to raise rates-- the "some" is new--but did not set out any specific conditions. With the unemployment rate now just a tenth above the top of the Fed's Nairu range, 5.0-to-5.2%, and very likely to dip into it by the time of the decision on September 17, while payroll growth is trending solidly above 200K per month, rates already would have been raised some time ago in previous cycles.

US Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims 7 9 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Regular claims still far too high, and Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims are rising again.

9 Dec. 2015 Services will Push up Core Inflation in the EZ Next Year (Publication Centre)

Core inflation--a long lagging indicator in the euro area-- will rise next year, in response to surging consumers' spending. Our first chart shows that services inflation likely will be a key theme in this story. Even allowing for a structural drag on inflation due to high unemployment outside Germany, cyclical risks to services inflation are tilted firmly to the upside.

23 Nov. 2015 How to Scare Yourself Over the U.S. Inflation Outlook (Publication Centre)

Should you be feeling in the mood to panic over inflation risks--or more positively, benefit from the markets' underpricing of inflation risks--consider the following scenario. First, assume that the uptick in wages reported in October really does mark the start of the long-awaited sustained acceleration promised by a 5% unemployment rate and employers' difficulty in finding people to hire. Second, assume that the rental property market remains extremely tight. Third, assume that the abrupt upturn in medical costs in the October CPI is a harbinger o f things to come. And finally, assume that the Fed hawks are right in their view that the initial increase in interest rates will--to quote the September FOMC minutes--"...spur, rather than restrain economic activity". Under these conditions, what happens to inflation?

7 Dec. 2015 After the First Hike, Next Week, Wage Gains Will Set the Pace (Publication Centre)

We're guessing Fed Chair Yellen would have preferred to have another acceleration in hourly earnings and a dip in the unemployment rate along side the hefty 211K leap in November payrolls, but no matter. At its October meeting, the Fed wanted to see "some further improvement in the labor market", and by any reasonable standard a 509K total increase in payrolls in two months fits the bill.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's stable unemployment rate belies underlying weakness. Tokyo energy inflation turns the corner. Sales tax preparations breathe life into Japanese production in May... if only temporarily. Korea's IP plunge in May shows why Japan can't rest on its laurels.

29 Apr. 2016 German Labour Market are Solid, but Likely Will Disappoint Soon (Publication Centre)

German labour market data continue to break records on a monthly basis. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.2% in A pril, with jobless claims falling 16,000, following a revised 2,000 fall in March. March employment rose 1.2% year-over-year, down slightly from 1.3% in February, but the total number of people in jobs rose to a new high of 43.4 million.

3 July. 2015 Surprising But Not Sustainable Jump in Brazil's Industrial Output (Publication Centre)

The second quarter is over but it is too early to give a reliable forecast of the pace of Brazilian GDP growth. However, an array of leading and coincident indicators points to a steep contraction in Q2 and a bleak second half of the year. Unemployment is leaping higher, along with inflation and household debt, and the ongoing monetary and fiscal tightening will further hurt the real economy ahead.

30th September 2020 Global Monitor Spot the incentive to fire workers in the U.K. (Publication Centre)

• U.S.- 36 Days to go, who will win, and what will they do • EUROZONE - The PMIs point to a stalling recovery, but other surveys beg to differ • U.K.- The new job-retention scheme won't prevent a sharp rise in unemployment • ASIA - Controversial agricultural reforms in India deserve a shot • LATAM - More rate cuts on the way from Banxico

17 Dec. 2014 - Time Runs Out for (Publication Centre)

We think the FOMC's announcement this afternoon will not include the phrase "considerable time", signaling that the first rate cut will come at or before the middle of next year. At the same time, the Fed's new forecasts likely will show the unemployment rate falling into the Fed's estimated Nairu range this year, rather than the spring of 2016, as implied by their September forecasts.

30 August. 2016 Reports of the Economy's Resilience are Greatly Exaggerated (Publication Centre)

Over the sleepy August holidays, a view has gained traction in the media that the U.K. economy is showing little damage from the Brexit vote. Optimists argue that the size and composition of the 0.6% quarter-on-quarter rise in Q2 GDP, the 1.4% month-to-month jump in retail sales volumes in July, and the slight dip in the unemployment claimant count demonstrate that the recovery is in good shape.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs are not yet fully picking up the coronavirus; China's non-manufacturing PMI lifted by local government spending; not yet hit by the virus; Japan's job postings still suggest the unemployment rate is unsustainably low; Japan's national inflation has less far to fall than Tokyo's; The coronavirus will delay the return of Japanese retail sales to pre-tax hike levels; Investment goods drive Japan's IP rebound in December; no real support now for consumer goods production; December probably is as good as it will get for Korean industrial production, for now

9 Nov. 2015 Fed Set to Hike in December, and then Faster than Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

At a stroke, the October payroll report returned the short-term trend in payroll growth to the range in place since 2011, pushed the unemployment rate into the lower part of the Fed's Nairu range, and lifted the year-over-year rate of growth of hourly earnings to a six-year high. The FOMC has never quantitatively defined what it means by "some further improvement in the labor market", its condition for increasing rates, but if the October report does not qualify, it's hard to know what might fit the bill. We expect a 25bp increase in December.

EZ Datanote:INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stable; consumers still fear high unemployment.

2 Mar. 2015 If Real Wages are Key for the Fed, Policy Will Change Very Soon (Publication Centre)

If recent labor market trends continue, the four employment reports which will be released before the June FOMC meeting will show the economy creating about 1.1M jobs, pushing the unemployment rate down to 5.3%, almost at the bottom of the Fed's estimated Nairu range, 5.2-to-5.5%.

19 June 2017 Colombia's Economy Started Q2 Poorly, Expect a Sluggish Recovery (Publication Centre)

Evidence of slowing economic activity in Colombia continues to mount. Retail sales fell 2.0% year- over-rate in April, down from a revised plus 3.0% in March; and the underlying trend is falling. This year's consumption tax increase, low confidence, tight credit conditions, and rising unemployment continue to put private consumption under pressure.

17 Dec. 2015 The Beginning of "Gradual" or the Start of the Next Big Fed Mistake? (Publication Centre)

The FOMC yesterday did what it had to do, and said what it had to say. The super-doves were kicked into line, with a unanimous vote, though two members' blue dots showed they think rates should not have been raised. In our view, though, Dr. Yellen's avowed intention to raise rates gradually sits uneasily with her--correct--assertion that policy remains very accommodative, bearing in mind that the unemployment rate is now at the Fed's estimate of the Nairu, while evidence of accelerating wage gains is burgeoning.

21 March 2019 The Fed is Safe Until the Second Half then all Bets are Off (Publication Centre)

Now that the Fed has abandoned the idea of raising rates this year, despite 3.8% unemployment and accelerating wages, it is very exposed to the risk that the bad things it fears don't happen.

2 November 2017 2017 The ECB Probably Should Lower its Inflation Target, but it Won't (Publication Centre)

Policymakers and macroeconomic forecasters at the ECB will be doing some soul-searching this week. GDP growth in the euro area accelerated to a punchy 2.5% year-over-year in Q3, and unemployment dipped to a cyclical low of 8.9%.

*August 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The fed will keep hiking each quarter...they are chasing unemployment, not inflation

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 August 2020 (Publication Centre)

The worst--for the economy--is over in Japan, but the recovery will be muted

NY Times - UK Inflation Bolsters View Central Bank Will Not Cut Rates (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists react to the May jobs report: "Unambiguously Positive" (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Jobs report

The New Yorker - The G.O.P.'s Latest Coronavirus Stimulus Doesn't Take Into Account Trump's Blundering (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the effect of Covid19 on the U.S. Economy

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists react to the May jobs report: "Unambiguously Positive" (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Jobs report

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Jobless Claims Rise Slightly in April 18 Week (Media Centre)

Chief US Economist Ian Shepherdson on today's Inital Jobless Claims data

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists react to the May jobs report: "Unambiguously Positive" (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Jobs report

Bloomberg - Why the Justice Department Went After the Wrong Deal (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing U.S. Economy

Business Insider - US weekly jobless claims hit 3 million, bringing the 8-week total to more than 36 million (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Jobless Claims

BLOOMBERG - Fiscal spending cushions Chile's first contraction in 6 years (Media Centre)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia on Chile GDP.

BLOOMBERG - Chile Labor Market Defies Slowdown as Manufacturing Shrinks (Media Centre)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia on Chile's jobless rate

BBC - US jobless rate at lowest since 1969 (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. payroll gains

CNBC - Coronavirus hits U.S. job market -- Jim Cramer and others weigh in (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. the impact of the Coronavirus on the U.S. Economy

FINANCIAL TIMES - Jobs data give Bank of England leverage to keep rates low (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. employment

Question of the Week, WC 5th October 2020 (Media Centre)

Will the EU's recovery fund be delayed?

Question of the Week, WC 19th October 2020 (Media Centre)

Will Banxico cut interest rates in November?

FORBES - All Hail The Eurozone's Disaster-Prone Economy (Really) (Media Centre)

Provocative notes from Ian Shepherdson, the Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics

Consistently Right

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