Pantheon Macroeconomics - Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

Search Results: 376
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

Sorry, but our website is best viewed on a device with a screen width greater than 320px. You can contact us at: info@pantheonmacro.com.

Website Search

Search Results

376 matches for " ELA":

22 August 2018 Venezuela's Economic Crisis Will Deteriorate Despite Recent Plan (Publication Centre)

To imagine an unstoppable macroeconomic policy disaster and desperate improvisation, just think of Venezuela.

23 February 2018 Venezuela's Crytocurrency is not a Quick Fix for Rising Misfortunes (Publication Centre)

Venezuela's beleaguered government announced on Tuesday that it had begun the pre-sale of 82.4M coins of a virtual currency, called the "petro", backed by the nation's vast petroleum reserves.

23 June. 2016 Venezuela is Still in Dire Straits - Straining to Avoid Collapse (Publication Centre)

2016 has been another terrible year for Venezuela, and we have no hope that the country's economic and political situation will improve in the near-term. Economic mismanagement, authoritarianism, corruption, violent looting and social unrest are the norm.

10 Dec. 2014 Venezuela's Default Risk Increases as Oil Prices Continue Falling (Publication Centre)

2015 is set to be another grim year for Venezuela, and we have no hope things will improve further down the road, barring huge changes in policy.

21 July 2017 Venezuela's Economic and Political Crisis Deteriorates, Risks is Soaring (Publication Centre)

The risk of political change in Venezuela is coming to a boil, following President Maduro's plans for a new constituent assembly that has the power to rewrite the constitution and scrap the existing National Assembly.

18 October 2017 Venezuela's Woes Will Increase Even A er Maduro's "Win" (Publication Centre)

Venezuela's fundamentals continue to deteriorate, economic chaos is increasing and the social/political situation remains fragile.

20 Jan. 2016 Venezuela Is Collapsing - LatAm's Star--Colombia--Is Merely Slowing (Publication Centre)

Commodity prices have started the year under further downward pressure. This is yet more negative news for LatAm, as most of the countries have failed to diversify, instead relying on oil or copper for a large share of exports and, critically, tax revenue. Venezuela is the biggest loser in the region from the oil hit, and, together with the worsening political and economic crisis, it has pushed the country even closer to the verge of collapse, threatening its debt payments. Venezuela's central bank last week released economic data for the first time since 2014, showing that inflation spiralled to 141% and that the economy shrank 4.5% in the first nine months of last year.

27 September 2017 Venezuela's Economic Woes Continue, and the Clock is Ticking (Publication Centre)

Venezuelan bond markets have been on a rollercoaster ride this year, with yields rising significantly in response to heightened political uncertainty and then declining when the government pays its obligations or when protests ease.

20 July. 2016 Venezuela's Crisis is Escalating, Made Worse by Low Oil Prices (Publication Centre)

Venezuela is on the brink o f economic and social collapse. Looting, food scarcity, power rationing, and other problems have become rampant. This week, Venezuela's government allowed citizens to flock across the Colombian border to shop for food and medicine, for the second time this month. Last year, Venezuela's President Maduro shut the border in a bid to crack down on smuggling of subsidized products.

6 November 2017 Pressure is Building in Venezuela, the Default Clock is Ticking (Publication Centre)

Macroeconomic and financial conditions in Venezuela are deteriorating at an accelerating pace.

28 August. 2015 Fed Delay Until December Will Be Positive For LatAm Markets - Just (Publication Centre)

Multiple factors have shaken LatAm financial markets this week. China's market turmoil, commodity price oscillations, currency volatility, and political mayhem in every corner of the region, have all conspired against markets. But market chaos has also driven some central banks to rethink their monetary policy plans. For EM, in particular for LatAm, the stance of the Federal Reserve is key, given the region's close ties to the U.S., and the dollar.

16 July. 2015 The ECB Will be Put on the Spot for Its Role in the Greek Chaos (Publication Centre)

The ECB will keep its main interest rates and the pace of QE purchases unchanged today. Mr. Draghi will also reiterate the commitment to continuing QE until September next year, at least. But the press conference likely will focus on Greece, and the central bank's role in the chaos. Greek financial institutions are on the verge of collapse, partly because the ECB has been forced to cap emergency liquidity assistance--ELA--at €89B, and raise collateral haircut requirements following the announcement of the referendum.

30 June. 2016 Political Vacuum in the U.K. Prompts the EU to Up the Pressure (Publication Centre)

Leaders of the major Eurozone economies were in no mood to give concessions as they met with outgoing U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron this week for the first time since the referendum. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that she sees "no way back from the Brexit vote." This followed comments that the U.K. couldn't be expected to "cherry-pick" the EU rules that it would like to follow after a new deal.

27 September 2017 Yellen is Following the Tightening Labor Market, it's Telling her to Hike (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen's speech in Cleveland yesterday elaborated on the key themes from last week's FOMC meeting.

19 Feb. 2016 The Main EZ Economies Will Try to Accommodate Mr. Cameron (Publication Centre)

Talks between the EU and the U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron are expected to culminate with a deal today, but we doubt this week's summit will be the final word. A detailed re-negotiation of the U.K.'s relationship with the EU is the last thing the large continental economies need at the moment.

13 January 2017 The Eurozone Economy Remains Oblivious to Political Risks (Publication Centre)

The euro area economy continues to defy rising political uncertainty. Data yesterday showed that industrial production, ex-construction, in the Eurozone jumped 1.5% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 3.2% from a revised 0.8% in October. Output rose in all the major economies, but the headline was flattered by a 16.3% month-to-month leap in Ireland. This was due to a production jump in Ireland's "modern sector" which includes the country's large multinational technology sector.

30 October 2018 Mrs. Merkel's Exit as CDU Leader is the End of an Era in EU Politics (Publication Centre)

The big news in the EZ yesterday was the announcement by German chancellor Angela Merkel that she will step down as party leader for CDU later this year, and that she will hand over the chancellorship when her term ends in 2021.

17 July. 2015 A Dovish Mr. Draghi Assures Markets the ECB is Here to Help (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB press conference confirmed our view that Mr. Draghi is the periphery's friend, not enemy. Crucially, the central bank agreed to increase emergency liquidity assistance--ELA--to Greek banks by €900M. This is consistent tent with the agreement by the Eurogroup to give Greece €7B bridge financing, and shows the ECB is ready to act on the back of only a temporary truce between Greece and the EU. The increase in ELA is modest, and we doubt a painful restructuring of the banking system can be avoided. But with Greek bond yields falling, the available pool of collateral will go up, allowing the central bank to provide further relief in coming weeks.

4 March 2019 A Solid Finish to 2018 for Colombia Momentum Will be Sustained (Publication Centre)

Colombia's GDP growth hit a relatively solid 2.8% year-over-year in Q4, up from 2.7% in Q3, helped by improving domestic fundamentals, which offset the drag from weaker terms of trade.

24 April 2018 The Strong Services Sector Boosted Mexico's Economy in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Growth appears to have accelerated in the first quarter in Mexico, as NAFTA-related uncertainty abated, inflation started to fall, and the MXN rebounded.

26 February 2019 No-Deal Brexit Risk Likely Will Fall Further this Week (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister's announcement on Sunday that the meaningful vote in parliament on her Brexit deal will be delayed from this week, until March 12, came as no surprise after a series of prior postponements.

7 December 2017 Tory Eurosceptics Are Not an Invincible Barrier to a Soft Brexit (Publication Centre)

Brexit talks have hit an impasse over the Irish border. The Republic of Ireland will veto any deal that creates a hard border with Northern Ireland. This means that Northern Ireland must remain in the EU's customs union.

22 May 2018 Maduro Wins Bogus Presidential Election, what will Happen Next? (Publication Centre)

President Nicolás Maduro has "won' another six-year term, as expected, even as millions of Venezuelans boycotted the election.

30 April 2019 No Boost to Business Confidence from the Brexit Delay (Publication Centre)

News that the U.K.'s departure from the E.U. has been delayed by six months, unless MPs ratify the existing deal sooner, appears to have done little to revive confidence among businesses.

8 August. 2016 Wage Gains Set to Slide in August, Delaying the Fed Until December (Publication Centre)

We were happy to see the 255K gain in July payrolls, but we remain nervous about the sustainability of such strong numbers. The jump in employment was very large relative to some of the key survey-based indicators of the pace of hiring, even after allowing for the 29K favorable swing in the birth/ death model, compared to a year ago, and the 27K jump in state and local government education jobs, likely due to seasonal adjustment problems

7 March 2017 Why has Spending not Faltered After Tax Refunds were Delayed? (Publication Centre)

The delay in the processing of personal income tax refunds this year appears not to have had any adverse impact on retail sales, so far. Indeed, the Redbook chainstore sales survey suggests that sales have accelerated over the past few weeks.

22 September 2017 Angela Merkel will stay as Chancellor, but building a coalition will be tricky (Publication Centre)

Germans head to the polls on Sunday to elect representatives for the national parliament. The media has tried to keep investors on alert for a surprise, but polls indicate clearly that Angela Merkel will continue as Chancellor.

TRT World - Cancellation of 100-bolivar notes in Venezuela (Media Centre)

Interview with Andres Abadia on cancellation of 100-bolivar notes in Venezuela

15 November 2018 From #Euroboom to #Eurogloom What Next for the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second estimate of GDP confirmed that Eurozone growth slowed significantly in Q3.

14 Oct 2019 If German CPI Data won't Guide Bunds, Maybe Fiscal Policy will (Publication Centre)

Friday's data added further colour to the September CPI data for the Eurozone.

15 Mar. 2016 Markets Embrace new ECB tools, but are getting the story wrong (Publication Centre)

Markets initially objected to last week's ECB package, but the tune has since changed. The decision to focus on direct credit easing to the domestic economy, via more attractive TLTROs and corporate bond purchases--rather than by lowering rates further--is now seen by many analysts as a stroke of genius.

15 July 2019 Jump in EZ Industrial Output in May won't be Sustained (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in the Eurozone stood tall mid-way through Q2, despite still-subdued leading indicators.

15 Dec. 2014 Don't Tar All of LatAm With The Same Brush on Weak Oil Prices (Publication Centre)

We have set out in recent Monitors the differences in the economic and political environment across Latin America, but the plunge in oil prices adds a new element to the analysis.

14 Oct 2019: A Brexit Deal with a NI-Only Backstop won't get Through this HoC (Publication Centre)

Sterling leapt to $1.27, from $1.22 last week, amid some positive signals from all sides engaged in Brexit talks.

15 August 2017 The German Economy Fired on All Cylinders in the First Half of 2017 (Publication Centre)

Today's advance Q2 GDP report in Germany will add evidence that the EZ economy performed strongly in the first half of 2017. We can be pretty sure that the headline will be robust. The German statistical office reports a confidential number to Eurostat for the first estimate of EZ GDP--two weeks ahead of today's data--which was a solid 0.6%.

19 February 2019 A 2019 General Election No Longer is So Implausible (Publication Centre)

The decision by seven MPs to abandon Labour and set up a new centrist grouping--the Independent Group--will not have a significant impact on the outcome of parliamentary Brexit votes.

18 April 2018 Colombia's Softer Activity Data is Temporary, Expect an Acceleration (Publication Centre)

The February activity report in Colombia showed a modest pick-up in manufacturing activity and strength in the retail sales numbers.

18 May 2018 Challenging Times for the BCB, Weak Growth and EM Risks Rising (Publication Centre)

Brazil's monetary authority adopted a neutral tone and kept its main rate on hold at 6.5% at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, surprising investors.

17 October 2018 The Eurozone's Trade Surplus is Headed Down a Notch this Year (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's trade surplus rebounded slightly over the summer, rising to €16.6B in August from €12.6B in July, helped mainly by a 2.0% month-to- month jump in exports.

16 Sept. 2015 Brazil's Austerity Measures Sound Good, But Probably Won't All Happen (Publication Centre)

Brazil's government announced on Monday spending cuts and new tax increases, aiming to generate a 0.7% of GDP primary surplus, and so restore market confidence and avoid further credit rating downgrades. The plan is to reduce expenditure by BRL26B next year--or 0.4% of GDP--mainly through freezing public sector salaries and slashing social projects. These measures, especially the latter, will likely meet strong resistance in Congress. The salary freeze has more of a chance of passing, but reducing or closing some Ministries is a cost-cutting exercise with an extremely high political price.

16 March 2018 Colombia's Consumption and Investment are Strengthening (Publication Centre)

Colombia's economy defied rising political uncertainty at the start of the year. Retail sales growth jumped to plus 6.2% year-over-year in January, up from -3.8% in December and -1.8% in Q4.

16 May 2018 Better Fundamentals and Fading Political Risk to Support Colombia (Publication Centre)

Colombia's Q1 GDP report confirms that the economy is improving. Leading indicators and survey data suggest that the recovery will continue over the second half of the year.

18 Sept. 2015 BCCh Leaves Interest Rates Steady But Hints Tightening Soon (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank left its main interest rate unchanged last week at 3.0%, for the ninth month in a row. But policymakers adopted a hawkish bias in the press release, signalling that rates will rise later this year.

11 March 2019 Early Evidence Points to Solid EZ Manufacturing Data in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's manufacturing data in the Eurozone were mixed.

11 June 2019 Chile's Central Bank Folded in the Face of the Trade War (Publication Centre)

The border security agreement between the U.S. and Mexico has strengthened hopes that the Sino- U.S. trade war will end soon.

19 September 2017 Four Reasons Why the MPC Likely Will Procrastinate in November (Publication Centre)

For the record, we think the Fed should raise rates in December, given the long lags in monetary policy and the clear strength in the economy, especially the labor market, evident in the pre-hurricane data.

11 March 2019 Inflation Data in the Andes Validate Forecasts for Stable Interest Rates (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Andes remains in check and the near term will be benign, suggesting that central banks will remain on hold over the coming months.

11 January 2019 MPs Will Steer the PM to a Softer Brexit After Next Week's Defeat (Publication Centre)

The government remains on course to lose next Tuesday's Commons vote on the Withdrawal Agreement--WA--by a huge margin.

11 December 2017 The EU and the U.K. Have a Deal, Now Comes the Difficult Bit (Publication Centre)

The 16-page document--see here--detailing the agreement allowing the EU and the U.K. to move forward in the Brexit negotiations is predictably tedious.

1 May 2019 What Will Chair Powell say About Strong Q1 Growth and Low Inflation (Publication Centre)

The FOMC meeting today will be a non-event from a policy perspective but we are very curious to see what both the written statement and the Chair will have to say about the unexpected strength of the economy in the first quarter.

10 July 2018 Should we be Excited About the Rebound in EZ Investor Sentiment (Publication Centre)

It has been mostly doom and gloom for euro area investors in equities and credit this year.

12 July. 2016 Brazil and Argentina are Both Hurting, but Healing has Begun (Publication Centre)

Brazil and Argentina, South America's biggest economies are going through a metamorphosis. Brazil is emerging from its recession and a modest recovery is on the horizon. Exports have rebounded, thanks to the lagged effect of the BRL's sharp sell-off last year, and confidence has improved significantly in recent months. The likelihood that interim President Michel Temer will stay on as head of Brazil's government has also helped to boost sentiment.

12 March 2019 PM Set for Defeat, Whether Today's Vote is "Conditional" or Not (Publication Centre)

Mrs. May looks set to lose the second "meaningful vote" on the Withdrawal Agreement-- WA--today, whether she decides on a straightforward vote or one asking MPs to b ack it if some hypothetical concessions are achieved.

14 August 2017 Peru's Central Bank Holds Rates but Points to Further Stimulus (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.75% last week, but signalled that further easing is on the way. According to the press release accompanying the decision, policymakers noted that inflation expectations are within their target range and still falling.

14 February 2018 Elections and Economic Turnaround Key Factors to Watch in Colombia (Publication Centre)

Legislative and presidential elections in Colombia will be held on March 11 and May 27, respectively, with a run-off presidential election on June 17 if no candidate secures more than half the votes.

14 Apr. 2015 The Eurozone is on track for strongest growth since Q1 2011 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone industrial production data today will confirm that economic growth likely accelerated in the first quarter. We think output rose 0.7% month-to-month in February, equivalent to a 0.8% increase year-over-year.

13 July. 2016 German Inflation is Rising, but Will Bund Yields Pay Attention? (Publication Centre)

The final June inflation report from Germany yesterday confirmed that pressures are rising. Inflation rose to 0.3% year-over-year in June, up from 0.1% in May, mainly due to higher energy prices. Household energy prices--utilities--fell 4.9% year-over-year, up from a 5.7% decline in May, while deflation in petrol prices eased to -9.4%, up from -12.1% in May.

13 December 2017 October's Dip in EZ Industrial Production is no Cause for Alarm (Publication Centre)

Today's industrial production data will confirm that EZ manufacturing suffered a slow start to Q4. Advance country data signal a 0.2% month-to-month fall in October, slightly worse than the consensus, 0.0%.

13 July 2018 Did Sluggish Manufacturing Hold Back the EZ Economy in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in the Eurozone rebounded midway through the second quarter.

14 March 2019 EZ Industrial Production is on Track for a Small Increase in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ industrial production data for January confirmed the string of positive advance numbers from most of the individual economies.

10 July. 2015 Last Chance for Common Sense to Prevail in Greece and the EU (Publication Centre)

Another weekend, another summit, but the sense of urgency is acute this time. Greece, and the rest of the world, will likely have to prepare for Grexit if Mr. Tsipras' final proposal is rebuffed by the EU. We expect a deal, with Greece to remain in the Eurozone, but visibility is limited and uncertainty is high.

4 April 2017 Mexican Markets Had a Good Q1, the Next Test is on the Political Front (Publication Centre)

LatAm, particularly Mexico, has dealt with Donald Trump's presidency better than expected thus far. Indeed, the MXN rose 10.7% against the USD in Q1, the stock market has recovered after its initial post-Trump plunge, and risk metrics have eased significantly.

30 June. 2015 Greece and the Eurozone in Limbo Until the Referendum in Greece (Publication Centre)

Eurozone politicians are likely scrambling for a last gasp return to negotiations before the Greek bailout program ends at the end of today. But progress will likely be limited until we have the result of the planned Greek referendum on Sunday. Voters will be asked essentially on whether they agree with the proposal presented by the institutions. The government will campaign for a "no," but a "yes" looks more likely, based on polls that Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone.

4 December 2017 Britain Will be Forever Stuck in the Brexit Departure Lounge (Publication Centre)

Sterling strengthened last week to its highest tradeweighted level since mid-May, amid hopes that the U.K. government will concede more ground to ensure that the European Council deems, at its December 14 meeting, that "sufficient progress" has been made in Brexit talks for trade discussions to begin

5 February 2019 Economic and Inflation Conditions Remain Benign in the Andes (Publication Centre)

Colombia's BanRep stuck to the script on Thursday by leaving the policy rate on hold at 4.25%.

5 Mar. 2015 Bond Markets in the Eurozone Will Stay Crazy as the ECB Starts QE (Publication Centre)

The ECB will keep interest rates on hold later today, and the commitment to monthly asset purchases of €60B--of which €50B will be sovereigns--until September next year will also remain unchanged. Sovereign QE should begin formally next week, but it has already turned bond markets upside down.

30 January 2019 Colombia's Economic Growth Prospects will Improve Soon (Publication Centre)

Recently released data in Colombia signal that the economy ended last year quite strongly.

30 Jan. 2015 Leading indicators are sending a clear signal of higher GDP growth ahead (Publication Centre)

Money supply data in the euro area are sending an increasingly upbeat signal on the economy. The increase in narrow money growth is the key variable here, now pointing to a noticeable acceleration in GDP growth later this year. Allowing for the usual lags between upturns in M1 and the economy, we should start to see this in the second and third quarter.

29 March 2019 Is There Any Way Through the Brexit Bind? (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister appears set to have one more go at getting the House of Commons to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement today.

29 June. 2015 Greek Exit Looms, but Don't Ignore Bullish Leading Indicators (Publication Centre)

Negotiations between Greece and its creditors collapsed over the weekend, greatly increasing the risk of a Grexit. The decision by Syriza to call a referendum on the bailout proposal next weekend, initially advocating rejection, forced the Eurogroup to abandon negotiations and focus on "damage control." Hope of a final retreat from the brink rests with the Greek parliament deciding not to hold the referendum, and accepting the proposal presented on Friday.

3 May 2019 Andean Central Bank's Dovish Tone to Continue In Coming Meetings (Publication Centre)

Inflation and growth paths remain diverse across LatAm, but in the Andes, the broad picture is one of modest inflationary pressures and gradual economic recovery.

3 Oct 2019 Regional Polling Data Point to a Tory Majority, But The Race Will Narrow (Publication Centre)

We continue to expect a general election to be held in December.

3 October 2017 BanRep Leaves Rates on Hold, But Further Stimulus Will Come Soon (Publication Centre)

Colombia's Central Bank is facing a short-term test. The recent fall in inflation was interrupted in August--data due on Thursday will show another increase in September--while economic growth, particularly consumption, is struggling, at least for now.

5 Sept 2019 Don't Write off the EZ Consumer in Q3, Even if Retail Sales Falter (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that EZ consumers' spending was off to a bad start in the third quarter.

2 May 2017 Economic Activity in Mexico Remains Strong, but Will Slow (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery has been steady in recent months, and Q1 likely will mark the end of the recession. The gradual recovery of the industrial and agricultural sectors has been the highlight, thanks to improving external demand, the lagged effect of the more competitive BRL, and the more stable political situation, which has boosted sentiment.

7 Aug 2019 Will Tory Rebels Vote with the Opposition in a No-Confidence Vote? (Publication Centre)

According to Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, it is "almost inevitable" that Labour will table a no-confidence motion in the government next month, shortly after MPs return from the summer recess on September 3.

6 Mar. 2015 A more upbeat Mr. Draghi, but QE is not challenged by better economic data (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi was in a slightly more bullish mood yesterday, noting that the significant easing of financial conditions in recent months and improving sentiment show that monetary policy "has worked". Economic risks are tilted to the downside, according to the president, but they have also "diminished".

7 Oct 2019 Business Investment is not Destined to Slump, Despite Brexit Risks (Publication Centre)

Make no mistake, business investment has been depressed by Brexit uncertainty over the last year.

8 November 2018 Is it Time to Worry About Consumers' Spending in Japan (Publication Centre)

The recent slowdown in labour cash earnings growth in Japan halted in September.

Andres Abadia

Andres Abadia authors our Latin American service. Andres is a native of Colombia and has many years' experience covering the global economy, with a particular focus on Latin America. In 2017, he won the Thomson Reuters Starmine Top Forecaster Award for Latam FX. Andres's research covers Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela, focusing on economic, political and financial developments. The countries of Latin America differ substantially in terms of structure, business cycle and politics, and Andres' researchhighlights the impact of these differences on currencies, interest rates and equity markets. He believes that most LatAm economies are heavily influenced by cyclical forces in the U.S. and China, as well as domestic policy shocks and local politics. He keeps a close eye on both external and domestic developments to forecast their effects on LatAm economies, monetary policy, and financial markets. Before starting to work at Pantheon Macroeconomics in 2013, Dr. Abadia was the Head of Research for Arcalia/Bancaja (now Bankia) in Madrid, and formerly Chief Economist for the same institution. Previously, he worked at Ahorro Coporacion Financiera, as an Economist. Andres earned a PhD in Applied Economics, and a Masters Degree in Economics and International Business Administration from Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, and a BSc in Economics from the Universidad Externado de Colombia.

6 June. Political Instability to Loom Large, if Referendum is Close Either Way (Publication Centre)

Would the U.K. inevitably leave the E.U. if a majority of the electorate voted for Brexit on June 23? Repeatedly, the Government has quelled speculation that it will call for a second referendum on an improved package of E.U. reforms after a Brexit vote on June 23. But unsuccessful referendums have been followed up with second plebiscites elsewhere in Europe.

6 July. 2016 The EZ Economy is at the Mercy of Rising Political Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data point to a sea of calm in the Eurozone economy. The composite PMI was unchanged at 53.1 in June, a slight upward revision from the initial estimate, 52.8. The index suggests real GDP growth was stable at 1.5%-to-1.6% year-overyear in Q2, though the quarter-on-quarter rate likely slowed markedly, following the jump in Q1.

6 Feb. 2015 Chilean Growth Is Improving, But China's Slowdown Is A Worry (Publication Centre)

Chilean GDP growth hit bottom in August, but activity is now picking up and will gather speed over the coming quarters. The tailwinds from lower oil prices and fiscal stimulus will soon be visible in the activity data.

6 February 2018 The PMIs Show Brexit Risks are Continuing to Dampen Growth (Publication Centre)

The latest PMIs suggest that investors have jumped the gun in pricing-in a 50% chance of the MPC raising interest rates again as soon as May.

6 February 2019 Will the Eurozone Consumer Step up to the Plate in 2019 (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, the retail sales data in the euro area suggest that consumers' spending hit a brick wall at the end of 2018.

6 July 2018 Industrial Activity in LatAm Taking Different Paths, Temporarily at Least (Publication Centre)

Industrial activity in LatAm, at least in the largest economies, is taking different paths.

29 January 2019 A Guide to Today's Key Brexit Votes in Parliament (Publication Centre)

Votes in the House of Commons to day likely will mark the start of MPs stamping their collective will on the Brexit process, following the Prime Minister's botched attempt at getting the current Withdrawal Agreement--WA--and Political Declaration through parliament earlier this month.

5 September 2018 Should Markets Prepare for Brexit Brinkmanship in Q4 and Q1 (Publication Centre)

We would sum up the final stages of the Brexit negotiations as follows: Both sides have an interest in a deal with minimal disruptions, but we probably have to get a lot closer to the cliff- edge for the final settlement.

29 April 2019 Growth Will be Slower in Q2, but not Slow, What Will the Fed Say? (Publication Centre)

The definition of "yesbutism": Noun, meaning the practice of dismissing or seeking to diminish the importance of data on the grounds that the next iteration will tell the opposite story.

24 August 2018 What Probability are Markets Attaching to a No-Deal Brexit? (Publication Centre)

Speculation that the U.K. will end up leaving the E.U. in March without a deal has dominated the headlines over the last month. Politicians on both sides of the Channel have warned that the probability of a no-deal Brexit is at least as high as 50%, even though more than 80% of the withdrawal deal already has been agreed.

24 May 2019 Switching Our Brexit Base Case From Soft Departure to Paralysis (Publication Centre)

The chances of our Brexit base case--a soft departure just before the current October 31 deadline--playing out have declined sharply over the last two weeks.

22 Dec. 2014 LatAm's Currencies and Economies are Telling Different Stories (Publication Centre)

The sharp drop in commodity prices, especially oil prices, has dampened the growth prospects for most countries in Latin America. But the most damage, so far, is in the currencies, which have dropped sharply.

22 Aug 2019 Brexit from the Perspective of the EU It's Complicated and Risky (Publication Centre)

The stakes in the Brexit saga have been raised significantly over the summer.

22 Feb. 2016 Colombian Policymakers Borrow Banxico's Bazooka Strategy (Publication Centre)

Colombia's central bank, BanRep, increased the monetary policy rate by 25bp to 6.25% on Friday, as expected, and also announced budget cuts and a new FX strategy to try to protect the COP. These measures are similar to those taken by Banxico on Wednesday. The press release, and the tone of the conference after the decision, suggest that more hikes are coming.

23 Sept 2019 Could a Tweaked Brexit Deal get Through the Commons? (Publication Centre)

Sterling rallied to $1.25 last week--its highest level against the dollar since Boris Johnson became PM in mid-July--amid growing speculation that a Brexit deal still was possible in the next couple of weeks, enabling the U.K. to leave the E.U. on October 31.

22 June. 2015 No Grand Deal with Greece, but an Extension Until Year-End is Likely (Publication Centre)

Discussions between Greece and its creditors drifted further into limbo last week, but we are cautiously optimistic that the Euro Summit meeting later today will yield a deal. The acrimony between Syriza and the main EU and IMF negotiators means, though, that a grand bargain is virtually impossible. We think an extension of the current bail-out until year-end is the most likely outcome.

22 March 2017 Greece, the EU and the IMF are Sleepwalking into Crisis... Again (Publication Centre)

Another deadline has come and gone in the negotiations between Greece and its creditors. This week's meeting between EU finance ministers revealed that the creditors have not seen enough commitments unlock the €7B Greece needs to repay in July. Mr. Tsipras has agreed to energy sector privatizations, and to increase the threshold for income tax exemption.

22 June 2017 Are we headed toward an extension of the U.K.'s EU membership? (Publication Centre)

The EU has had a better start to the Brexit negotiations than its counterpart across the Channel. The risk of disagreement within the EU on the details with of the U.K.'s exit is high, but the Continent has presented a united front so far, mainly because Mr. Macron and Mrs. Merkel agree on the broad objectives. They have no interest in punishing the U.K., but they are also keen to show that exiting the EU has costs for a country which leaves.

23 May 2018 Through the Looking Glass With Eurozone R&D Investment Data (Publication Centre)

The EZ national accounts were updated and rebased in 2015--from ESA 1995 to ESA 2010--in the name of timeliness and precision.

22 January 2019 Commodity Prices are Edging Higher, Improving LatAm's Outlook (Publication Centre)

Recent global developments lead us to intensify our focus on trade in LatAm.

21 November 2018 Commodity Prices Struggle in the Trade War Will LatAm be Resilient (Publication Centre)

The sharp downtrend in commodity prices in recent months is alarming from a LatAm perspective.

24 August. 2016 "Breaking News": EZ PMIs Signal Unchanged GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance EZ PMI data were virtually unchanged from previous months, yet again. The composite PMI rose trivially to 53.3 in August from 53.2 in July; this means that the index has been almost stable since February. The headline was lifted by a small increase in services, which offset a slight decline in manufacturing.

26 April 2019 First Quarter Growth Likely was Very Respectable, Q2 Should be Good too (Publication Centre)

We're expecting to learn today that the economy expanded at a 2.6% annualized rate in the first quarter, rather better than we expected at the turn of the year--our initial assumption was 1-to-2%--and above the consensus, 2.3%.

25 January 2019 A Positive Outlook for the Brazilian Economy will Support the BRL (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in Brazil, coupled with the message from President Bolsonaro at the World Economic Forum, vowing to meet the country's fiscal targets and reduce distortions, support our benign inflation view and monetary policy forecasts for this year.

21 May 2019 Japan's Q1 GDP Rose for the Wrong Reasons Tax Hike Still Questionable (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, Japanese GDP came thumping home in Q1, rising 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, after the 0.4% increase in Q4.

26 June 2018 The German Economy is No Longer Firing on All Cylinders (Publication Centre)

The verdict from the German business surveys is in; economic growth probably slowed further in Q2.

26 March 2019 Is a Snap General Election Inevitable? (Publication Centre)

Speculation that another general election is imminent has intensified in recent weeks.

28 June 2019 Who Will get the Top Jobs in the EU, and Should Investors Care? (Publication Centre)

Last week's capsized European Council summit added to our suspicions that uncertainty over the EU's top jobs will linger over the summer.

27 February 2019 Brazil's External Accounts Likely will Remain a Bright Spot this Year (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts are well under control, despite the wider deficit in January, mainly driven by seasonal deterioration on the trade account.

2 November. 2016 Brazil Industrial Output Remains Sluggish, but Q4 will be Better (Publication Centre)

Brazil's September industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed the message from survey data that the sector stabilized towards the end of summer. Output rose 0.5 month-to-month, and August output was revised up by 0.3 percentage points.

24 September 2018 The Prime Minister has Doubled Down on a Weak Hand (Publication Centre)

Theresa May doubled down on her Brexit stance last week, despite European Council President Donald Tusk stating clearly that her proposed framework for economic cooperation "will not work" because it risks undermining the single market.

21 Apr. 2015 Greek IMF default is looming, but it won't necessarily mean Grexit (Publication Centre)

Media reports that Greece and the EU are putting together "contingency plans" for a Greek default--and perhaps even an exit from the Eurozone--highlight how far the parties remain from each other.

20 Sept 2019 EZ Portfolio Outflows will get a New Lease of Life from the ECB (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded slightly at the start of Q3.

15 June 2018 May's Surge in Retail Sales is Just a Weather-Related Blip (Publication Centre)

The trend in retail sales no longer looks quite so flat, following yesterday's May report. The level of sales volumes in April was revised up by 0.3%.

17 January 2018 Depressed Supply Still Favours Relatively Low Bund Yields (Publication Centre)

Reporting on German CPI data has been like watching paint dry in recent months, but that will change in the first half of the year.

17 November. 2016 October Retail Sales Likely Spurred by a Weather-related Tailwind (Publication Centre)

The consensus for a modest 0.5% month-to- month rise in retail sales volumes in October looks too timid; we expect today's data to show a 1% increase.

18 November. 2016 Banxico is the Victim of Trump- Related Collateral Damage (Publication Centre)

Mexico's central bank, Banxico, last night capitulated again, reacting to the depreciation of the MXN by increasing interest rates by 50bp--for the fourth time this year--to 5.25%.

1 December 2017 Relapse in Confidence Signals the Economy is Only Muddling Through (Publication Centre)

Economy-wide confidence deteriorated in November, highlighting that Britain continues to struggle to shake off its malaise.

FINANCIAL TIMES - British shoppers delay spending ahead of Black Friday (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. CBI survey, November

12 Nov. 2015 Slight Weakening in Wage Growth Won't Delay the MPC (Publication Centre)

Markets were right to conclude that September's slightly weaker average weekly wage figures will have little impact on the MPC's decision on when to raise official interest rates. Fundamentally, wage pressures are building and likely will contribute to pushing CPI inflation back to its 2% target towards the end of 2016.

15 Apr. 2016 Chile's Central Bank Holds Rates and Relaxes its Tightening Bias (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank left rates unchanged on Tuesday for the fourth consecutive month, as recent data confirmed the sluggish pace of the economic recovery and inflation edges down closer to the target range. In the statement accompanying the decision, the BCCh kept its tightening bias, saying that the normalisation of monetary policy needs to continue at a data-dependent pace, in order to achieve its 3% target.

12 Jan. 2016 Why are Payroll Gains So Strong Relative to GDP Growth? (Publication Centre)

The combination of astounding fourth quarter payroll numbers and weak GDP growth has prompted a good deal of bemused head-scratching among investors and the commentariat. The contrast is startling, with Q4 private payrolls averaging 276K, a 2.4% annualized rate of increase, while the initial estimate for growth seems likely close to 1%. Even on a year-over-year basis, stepping back from the quarterly noise, Q4 growth is likely to be only 2% or so.

15 July 2019 The MPC is Set to Delay for Longer, but Procrastination has a Price (Publication Centre)

We are pushing back our forecast for the next rise in Bank Rate to May 2020, from the tail-end of this year.

13 May. 2015 Fed Lift Off Slightly Delayed - Breathing Space for LatAm? (Publication Centre)

The US employment data last week reduced further the likelihood of a June Fed rate increase. In turn, this changes the likely timing of the normalization process in some LatAm economies. Our Chief Economist, Ian Shepherdson, expects the Fed to start its normalization process in July or September; the strength of the employment data will prevent any postponement beyond the third quarter.

12 July 2017 Yellen Will Re-affirm Fed Policy. Expect no Revelations, or Dates (Publication Centre)

Chair Yellen has become quite good at not giving much away at her semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony.

6 April 2018 The Game Theory of Sino-U.S. Relations, the Status quo is Out (Publication Centre)

The meta game between China and Mr. Trump started as soon as he had any possibility of winning the election in 2016.

6 June 2019 Japanese Tax Hike Delay now More Likely, Even with a Q1 GDP Upgrade (Publication Centre)

We are sticking to our call for a weak first half in Japan, despite likely upgrades to Q1 GDP on Monday.

7 November 2018 China's Q3 BoP Data Confirm Trade War-Related Capital Flight (Publication Centre)

China's unadjusted current account surplus widened to $16.0B in the preliminary report for Q3, from $5.3B in Q2.

3 May 2018 The Fed Expects Above-Target Inflation Soon, but is Relaxed (Publication Centre)

The Fed pretty clearly wanted to tell markets yesterday that inflation is likely to nudge above the target over the next few months, but that this will not prompt any sort of knee-jerk policy response beyond the continued "gradual" tightening.

4 April 2019 More Evidence of a Relatively Resilient Domestic EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports added to the evidence the euro area economy as a whole is showing signs of resilience in the face of still-terrible conditions in manufacturing.

31 January 2019 A Two-Week Delay is All the Prime Minister has Achieved (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister achieved a rare victory yesterday, when the Commons passed the government-backed Brady amendment.

19 December 2017 Andean Economies Closely Related by Copper, but Divided by Politics (Publication Centre)

Sebastián Piñera returns to the Presidential Palacio de la Moneda, succeeding Michelle Bachelet as president of Chile, as in 2010.

9 Apr. 2015 German Manufacturing sector remains relatively subdued (Publication Centre)

The combination of upbeat survey data and solid consumer spending numbers indicate that the German economy is in good shape. But manufacturing data continue to disappoint; factory orders fell 0.9% month-to-month in February, equivalent to a 1.3% decline year-over-year.

9 Dec. 2015 Could Falling Oil Prices Delay the MPC Again? (Publication Centre)

The price of Brent oil has fallen sharply to $40 per barrel from about $50 just a month ago, and speculation is mounting that it could plunge to $20 soon. But CPI inflation should still pick up over coming months, provided oil prices remain above $30. And the absence of "second-round" effects of lower oil prices this year should reassure the Monetary Policy Committee that lower oil prices won't bear down on inflation over the medium-term.

30 January 2018 Mexico's Trade Gap Shrank in 2017, Helped by NAFTA-Related Fears (Publication Centre)

Mexico's trade balance shrank slightly last year, to USD11B, from USD13B in 2016. The main driver was a big swing in the non- energy balance, to a record USD8.0B surplus, following a USD0.4B deficit in 2016.

3 July 2018 It's Too Soon to Relax About the Current Account Deficit (Publication Centre)

Last week's balance of payments showed that the U.K. has made significant progress in reducing its reliance on overseas finance.

30 April 2018 The Q1 Slowdown Wasn't Just Weather-related (Publication Centre)

Last week's preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP has extinguished any lingering chance that the MPC might raise interest rates at its next meeting on May 10.

24 April 2018 Q1 GDP to Reinforce the Case for the MPC to Delay in May (Publication Centre)

One way or another, the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP--due Friday--will have a big market impact, following Mark Carney's warning last week that a May rate hike is not a done deal.

25 June 2019 Markets Relatively High Inflation Expectations Aren't Warranted (Publication Centre)

Financial markets' inflation expectations have risen sharply since the spring. Our first chart shows that the two-year forward rate derived from RPI inflation swaps has picked up to 3.8%, from 3.5% at the end of April.

23 May. Is it Premature to Relax About Brexit Risk? (Publication Centre)

Sterling rebounded last week and the probability of a Brexit, implied by betting markets, fell from 30% to 20%. The gap between cable and interest rate expectations, which opened up at the start of this year, appears to have closed completely, as our first chart shows. Sterling's rally in April quickly ran out of steam, but the evidence that support for "Bremain" has risen recently is persuasive.

21 Sept. 2015 Fed Delays Interest Rate Liftoff - LatAm Breathes a Sigh Of Relief (Publication Centre)

The Fed deferred, but did not cancel, the start of its rate normalization last week. As a consequence, December is now the most likely meeting for the first hike. The Fed's core view of the U.S. economy remains the same, but policymakers want a bit more time to see how global developments affect the U.S. Our Chief Economist, Ian Shepherdson, expects the strength of the employment data, better Chinese numbers and calm financial markets to prevent any further postponement beyond Q4.

20 July. 2015 Cyclical Recovery, but Structural Relapse in the Italian Economy (Publication Centre)

The cyclical recovery in Italy likely strengthened in the second quarter. Real GDP rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, and we think the e conomy repeated, or even slightly, beat this number in Q2. This would mark the strongest performance in four years, but it will take more than a business cycle upturn to solve the Italian economy's structural challenges. Government and non-financial corporate debt has risen to 220% of GDP since 2008, and non-performing loans--NPLs--have sky rocketed.

21 June 2019 Dealing with the "Delay Suits Both" Theories of China Trade (Publication Centre)

We've had pushback from readers over our take on the likelihood of a trade deal with China in the near future.

29 March 2019 Expect Banxico to Start Easing in Q3, but Risks of Delay Remain (Publication Centre)

Banxico yesterday left its policy rate unchanged at 3%, the highest level in a decade.

26 October 2017 Q3 GDP Will Spur a Rate Hike Next Week, but a Growth Relapse Looms (Publication Centre)

The pick-up in GDP growth in Q3 means that we now expect a majority of MPC members to vote to raise interest rates next week.

28 February 2019 The Probable Delay to Brexit Makes a Q3 Rate Hike a Closer Call (Publication Centre)

We have no choice but to revise down our forecast for GDP growth in Q2, now that the threat of a no-deal Brexit likely will hang over the economy beyond March, probably for three more months.

29 Feb. 2016 The Eurozone is Back in Deflation, but the Relapse is Temporary (Publication Centre)

Advance inflation data on Friday added to the gloom on the Eurozone economy. Reports from Germany, France, and Spain all surprised to the downside, indicating the euro area as a whole slipped back into deflation in February. Inflation in Germany dipped to 0.0% year-over-year in February, from 0.5% in January, and France slid back into deflation as the CPI index fell 0.2%, down from a 0.2 increase last month.

28 Apr. 2016 Global Risks Gone, but the Fed is Still Relaxed About Inflation Risk (Publication Centre)

The disappearance from the FOMC statement of any reference to global risks, which first appeared back in September, was both surprising and, in the context of this cautious Fed, quite bold. After all, one bad month in global markets or a reversal of the jump in the latest Chinese PMI surveys presumably would force the Fed quickly to reinstate the global get-out clause. So, why drop it now?

Question of the Week, WC 11th June (Media Centre)

Are there any signs that the U.S. tax cuts and/or regulatory relaxation are stimulating increased non-residential fixed investment?

6 February 2017 Mexico's Sentiment Depressed by Trump Fears and "Gasolinazo" (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest hard data suggest things might not be as bad as we feared. Retail sales and manufacturing output were relatively strong at the end of last year, the Q4 preliminary GDP report was mostly upbeat, and the labor market was firing on all cylinders.

Bloomberg - Vistesen: Merkel won't get anything from Trump meeting (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing the meeting between Angela Merkel and Donald Trump

6 March 2017 Fed Fears Hit LatAm FX Last Week - is a Renewed Sell-off Coming? (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have struggled in recent days as it has become clear that the Fed will hike next week. But we don't expect currencies to collapse, as domestic fundamentals are improving and the broader external outlook is relatively benign.

6 July 2018 June Payroll Growth Likely Slowed, a Bit, Hourly Earnings are a Wild Card (Publication Centre)

The ADP private sector employment number was a bit weaker than we expected in May, and the undershoot relative to our forecast has pulled down our model's estimate for today's official number

6 July. 2015 Labor Market is Still Tightening, Despite June Payroll Miss (Publication Centre)

First, a deep breath: June payrolls, with a margin of error of +/-107K, missed the consensus by 10K. Adding in the -60K revisions and the miss is still statistically insignificant. The story, therefore, is that there is no story. Even relative to our more bullish forecast, the miss was just 37K. Nothing bad happened in June. But we hav e to acknowledge that payroll growth has now undershot the pace implied by the NFIB's hiring intentions number--lagged by five months--in each of the past four months. In June, the survey pointed to a 320K jump in private employment, overshooting the actual print by nearly 100K.

5 February 2018 January's Wage Acceleration is not Definitive, but it's a Clear Warning (Publication Centre)

To be clear, the 2.9% year-over-year increase in headline hourly earnings in January does not restore the prior relationship between the rate of growth of nominal wages and measures of labor market tightness.

5 April 2017 The Brazilian Economy is Improving: Expect a Modest Q1 GDP Recovery (Publication Centre)

Brazilian February industrial production data, released yesterday, were relatively positive. Output rose 0.1% month-to-month, pushing the yearover- year rate down to -0.8% from 1.4% in January. Statistical quirks were behind February's year-over-year fall, though.

5 Apr. Has Corporate Profitability Peaked? (Publication Centre)

Companies' profit margins have fared relatively well during this recovery, and on many measures, they are back to pre-crisis levels. But looking ahead, corporate profitability is set to be squeezed as labour takes a larger share of national income and the Government gets to grips with the budget deficit by increasing corporate taxation.

4 September 2018 Colombia's Recovery Continues, and the Fundamentals are Sound (Publication Centre)

Activity data from Colombia over the past quarter have been strong. Real GDP expanded by a relatively robust 2.8% year-over-year in Q2, and is on track to post a 3.2% increase in Q3.

4 May 2018 A Solid Start to the Year for Chile's Economy, Will the Trend Continue? (Publication Centre)

This week's March economic activity reports in Chile have been relatively strong, with the industrial sector expanding briskly and retail sales solid.

5 April 2019 Mexico's Economy Remained Weak in Q1, but it will Rebound from Q2 (Publication Centre)

The relative strength of the investor and consumer confidence reports for March, released this week, signal a better outlook for the Mexican economy.

7 December. 2016 Durable Goods Orders Plunged Last Month, but the Core is Stabilizing (Publication Centre)

Unless Boeing received a huge aircraft order on November 30, we can now be pretty sure that most of October's 4.6% leap in headline durable goods orders reversed last month. Through November 29, Boeing booked orders for 34 aircraft, compared to 85 in October. Moreover, the bulk of the orders were for relatively low value 737s, whereas the October numbers were boosted by a surge in orders for 787s, whose list price is about three times higher.

5 September 2018 Manufacturing in Brazil and Mexico is Stabilizing, but Threats Remain (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Brazilian industrial production data were relatively upbeat.

5 June 2017 May Payrolls Hit by the Calendar, Expect a Rebound, and a Fed Hike (Publication Centre)

We don't believe that payrolls rose only 138K in May. History strongly suggests that when the May payroll survey is conducted relatively early in the month, payroll growth falls short of the prior trend.

5 July. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Will Lose Out if the Brexit Fallout Increases (Publication Centre)

It will take months, and perhaps years, before markets have any clarity on the U.K.'s new relationship with the EU. In the U.K., the main parties remain shell-shocked. Both leading candidates for the Tory leadership, and, hence, the post of Prime Minister, have said that they would wait before triggering Article 50.

5 July 2019 Chile's Retail Sector is Stabilizing, but Policy Uncertainty Remains (Publication Centre)

The economic recovery disappointed in Chile during most of the first half of the year, despite relatively healthy fundamentals, including low interest rates, low inflation and stable financial metrics.

6 Feb. 2015 The ECB increases the pressure on Greece (Publication Centre)

The decision by the ECB to remove the waiver for including Greek government bonds in standard refinancing operations changes little in the short run, as the banking system in Greece still has full access to the ELA. It does put additional pressure on Syriza, though, to abandon the position that it will exit the bailout on February the 28th, effectively pushing the economy into the abyss.

8 January 2018 The Labor Market is Still Tightening, Don't Fret over December Payrolls (Publication Centre)

We aren't perturbed by the undershoot in December payrolls, relative both to the October and November numbers and all the leading indicators.

9 Nov. 2015 The Unemployment Rate Is the Key Measure of Labour Market Slack (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee continues to assert that it can leave interest rates at rock-bottom levels, even though the unemployment rate has returned to its pre-recession level, because it understates the extent of slack in the labour market. If that hypothesis were correct, however, the relationship between the unemployment rate and wage growth would have weakened. But this clearly has not happened, as our first chart shows.

9 May. 2016 Payrolls Will Rebound--Maybe not in May--and Wages Are Rising (Publication Centre)

The undershoot in April payrolls, relative to the consensus, is a story of a fluke number in just one sector. Retail payrolls reportedly shrank by 3K, after rising by an average of 52K over the previous six months. Our first chart shows clearly that the retail payrolls are quite volatile over short periods, with sudden and often inexplicable swings in both directions quite common.

9 May 2018 Faster Productivity Growth and Higher Inflation will Lift Wage Gains (Publication Centre)

We just can't get away from the deeply vexed question of wages; specifically, why the rate of growth of nominal hourly earnings has risen only to just over 2.5%, even though the historical relationship between wage gains and the tightness of the labor market points to increases of 4%-plus.

9 June. The Surge in April Industrial Production is Just Noise (Publication Centre)

April's 2.0% month-to-month leap in industrial production was the biggest upside surprise on record to the consensus forecast, which predicted no change. The surge, however, just reflects statistical and weather-related distortions. These boosts will unwind in May, ensuring that industry provides little support to Q2 GDP growth. Make no mistake, the recovery has not suddenly gained momentum.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q1 GDP number leaves sales tax delay on the table

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI was poised for major disappointment... the trade war impact is clear. Don't be fooled by the relative stability of China's non-manufacturing PMI. Japan's March unemployment uptick was early; April was payback. Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's industrial production ticks up after extreme weakness; don't hold your breath for the recovery. Japan's consumers in poor shape, but maybe it's not that bad. The upswing in Korean industrial production likely to take a breather this month. The BoK holds firm, despite rising calls for a rate cut.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The inventory-related slump in export demand nearly is over; industrial production will bounce back in the summer.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Payback for the Brexit-related surge in Q1.

PM Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still dormant, despite the Brexit delay.

9 December. 2016 The Oil Hit Spread Widely Across the Economy - Now, it's Over (Publication Centre)

A core element of our relatively upbeat macro view before the implementation of fiscal stimulus under the new administration is that the ending of the drag from falling capex in the oil sector will have quite wide, positive implications for growth. The recovery in direct oil sector spending is clear enough; it will just track the rising rig count, as usual.

8 May 2019 Financial Services have Depressed the Core PCE Expect a Rebound (Publication Centre)

A steep drop in prices for financial services in January was a key factor behind the sharp slowdown in the rate of increase of the core PCE deflator in the first quarter, relative to the core CPI.

8 August 2017 Chinese Capital Outflows Well -Managed while Conditions Benign (Publication Centre)

The external environment was relatively benign for China in July. The euro and yen appreciated as markets began to question how long policy can remain on their current emergency settings.

8 April 2019 Don't Rule Out a 2019 Rate Hike, if the Brexit Extension is Long (Publication Centre)

The point when businesses and households can breathe a sigh of relief about Brexit looks set to be delayed again this week.

7 June 2017 How to Prepare for a Eurozone Bond Market Without the ECB (Publication Centre)

Predicting which way markets would move in response to potential general election outcomes has been relatively straightforward in the past. But the usual rules of thumb will not apply when the election results filter through after polling stations close on Thursday evening.

8 August 2017 Will Mexico's Economy Resilience Continue in the Second Half? (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy maintained its relatively strong momentum in Q2. The first estimate of Q2 GDP, released last week, confirmed that growth was resilient during the first half of this year, despite the confidence hit caused by domestic and external headwinds.

8 January 2018 Brazil's Industrial Sector and Foreign Trade to Remain Resilient in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a relatively resilient Brazilian economy in the last few months, despite intensified political risk, and hard data are beginning to confirm this story.

8 May 2019 Chile's Economy Slowed in Q1, but Expect a Modest Q2 Rebound (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in Chile slowed in Q1, despite a relatively strong end to the quarter, and the chances of an accelerating recovery remains disappointingly low, due to both global and domestic headwinds.

8 May 2017 Rocky Commodity Markets Put LatAm FX under Temporary Stress (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have done well in recent weeks on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD. A less confrontational approach from the U.S. administration to trade policy has helped too.

8 March 2019 Business and Consumer Sentiment in Stark Contrast Who's Right (Publication Centre)

Consumer sentiment in Mexico continues to improve, consistent with tailwinds from the relatively strong labour market and the president's rising approval ratings.

7 June 2017 A Tory Victory Wouldn't Necessarily Boost Sterling this Time (Publication Centre)

Predicting which way markets would move in response to potential general election outcomes has been relatively straightforward in the past. But the usual rules of thumb will not apply when the election results filter through after polling stations close on Thursday evening.

4 June 2018 Trump's Tariffs are a Bad Omen for NAFTA Talks, Trade-War Risk Rising (Publication Centre)

Rising political risks and NAFTA-related threats have put the MXN under pressure last month, driving it down 4.9% against the USD, as shown in our first chart.

16 Oct. 2015 Bund Yields are Too Low, but no Serious Increase Until Next Year (Publication Centre)

Bond markets in the euro area have been a calm sea recently relative to the turmoil in equities, credit and commodities. Following the initial surge in yields at the end of second quarter, 10-year benchmark rates have meandered in a tight range, recently settling towards the lower end, at 0.5%. Our outlook for the economy and inflation tells us this is to o low, even allowing for the impact of QE.

16 November. 2016 Look Behind Falling Utility Output to See the Manufacturing Gain (Publication Centre)

Falling demand for utility energy, thanks to yet another very warm month, relative to normal, will depress the headline industrial production number for October, due today. We look for a 21⁄2% drop in utility energy production, enough to subtract a quarter point from total industrial output.

16 May 2017 Eurozone Reforms Likely are Coming, but Patience is Needed (Publication Centre)

Mr. Macron will be in Berlin today with the message that France wants a strong Eurozone and a tight relationship with Germany. Friendly overtures between Paris and Berlin are good news for investors; they reduce political uncertainty while increasing the chance that the economic recovery will continue. But it is too early to get excited about closer fiscal coordination, let alone a common EZ fiscal policy and bond issuance.

16 June 2017 LatAm Markets will Continue to Cope Well with Fed Tightening (Publication Centre)

LatAm markets reacted well to the U.S. Fed's decision to increase the funds rate by 25bp, to 1-to-1¼%, on Wednesday. Currencies moved only slightly after the decision and asset markets were relatively stable. Yesterday, some currencies retreated marginally as investors digested the relatively hawkish message from the Fed and Chair Yellen's press conference.

16 Oct. 2015 Goods Prices Aren't Falling Fast Enough to Offset Services Gains (Publication Centre)

The strong dollar is pushing down goods prices, but not very quickly. As a result, the sustained upward pressure on rents is gradually nudging core CPI inflation higher. It now stands at 1.9%, up from a low of 1.6% in January, and even relatively modest gains over the third quarter will push the rate above 2% by year-end. We can't rule out core CPI inflation ending the year at a startling 2.3%.

17 April 2018 Brazil's Economy will Improve in Q2, but it Faces Rising Political Risk (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators and survey data in Brazil still suggest a rebound from the relatively soft GDP growth late last year and in Q1.

17 July 2017 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Subdued, Oil is Mainly to Blame (Publication Centre)

Upbeat survey data and relatively resilient consumer spending numbers indicate that the Mexican economy is in good shape, despite a marginal slowdown in most of Q2.

17 January 2017 Peru's Growth is Solid, Will Copper Prices Offer More Support in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic activity data from Peru signalled that the relatively firm business cycle continues. The monthly GDP index accelerated to 3.6% year-over-year in November, rising from 2.1% in October, but marginally below the 4.4% on average in Q3. Growth continued to be driven by mining output, including oil and gas, which rose 15% year-over- year. The opening of several new mines explains the upturn, and we expect the sector to remain key for the Peruvian economy this year.

17 August. 2016 Mexico's Labor Market Remains Resilient, Driving Solid Spending (Publication Centre)

The Mexican labor market has remained relatively healthy in recent months, despite many external and domestic headwinds. Formal employment has increased by 2.1% year-to-date and by 3½% in the year to July, according to the Mexican Social Security Institute.

16 July 2018 Will Eurozone Investment Take a Hit from the Global Trade Conflict? (Publication Centre)

Last week's packed political agenda in Europe confirmed that political relations between the U.S. and the major Eurozone economies remain difficult.

16 January 2017 Inflation Pressure Remains High in Argentina, but Will Fade This Year (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressure remained relatively high in Argentina last year, due mostly to the legacy of the Kirchner era. But we think inflation will ease this year, given the lagged effects of the recession and the fiscal consolidation.

15 Jan. 2016 Downside Risk for December Retail Sales and Industrial Output (Publication Centre)

After a very light week for economic data so far, everything changes today, with an array of reports on both activity and inflation. We expect headline weakness across the board, with downside risks to consensus for the December retail sales and industrial production numbers, and the January Empire State survey and Michigan consumer sentiment. The damage will b e done by a combination of falling oil prices, very warm weather, relative to seasonal norms, and the stock market.

15 December 2016 EZ Manufacturing will Recover Quickly from its Poor Start to Q4 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone manufacturers had an underwhelming start to Q4. Data yesterday showed that production fell 0.1% month-to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.6%, from a revised 1.3% in September. Output was constrained mostly by weakness in France and a big month-to-month fall in Ireland, which offset marginal gains in Germany and Spain.

15 August. 2016 Dovish, but Vigilant Policymakers in LatAm - the Fed is the Key Risk (Publication Centre)

Last week, Banxico, the BCCh and the BCRP all left their reference rates on hold. Their currencies have remained relatively stable in recent months and inflation pressures are under control. In Mexico, Banxico has adopted a more discretionary approach, following two 50bp hikes this year.

15 Jan. 2016 Equity Price Drop Not Yet Big Enough to Darken Growth Outlook (Publication Centre)

The FTSE 100 fell further yesterday, briefly to levels not seen since November 2012, but its drop over recent months is not a convincing signal of impending economic disaster. The economic recovery is likely to slow further, but this will reflect the building fiscal squeeze and the sterling-related export hit much more than the wobble in market sentiment.

15 June. 2016 Will Political Risk and Uncertainty Overwhelm the EZ Economy? (Publication Centre)

Based on key economic indicators, the Eurozone economy is doing splendidly, relative to its performance in recent years. Real GDP has been growing at 1.6%-to-1.7% year-over-year since the first quarter of last year, bank credit has expanded, and the unemployment rate is declining.

16 December 2016 LatAm Currencies Sell-off Post Fed Hike, but they will Stabilize Soon (Publication Centre)

LatAm markets reacted relatively well to the Fed's rate hike on Wednesday, which was largely priced-in. The markets' cool-headed reaction bodes well for Latam central banks. But it doesn't mean that the region is risk-free, especially as Mr. Trump's inauguration day draws near.

15 May 2019 The Escalation of Trade Tensions Fans Concerns for LatAm's Upturn (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets did well in Q1, on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD.

15 May 2017 Core Inflation Surprises Again, but the Trend Likely has not Turned (Publication Centre)

The failure of the core CPI to mean-revert in April, after the unexpected March drop, does not mean that the Fed can relax.

17 July 2019 Net Trade will Decide the Fortunes of the EZ Economy Through 2021 (Publication Centre)

The outlook for growth in the EZ economy is currently both stable and relatively uncomplicated, at least based on the most widely-watched leading indicators.

17 March 2017 Colombia's Economy is Slowing Rapidly, BanRep to Cut Further (Publication Centre)

The Fed's insistence this week that U.S. rates will rise only twice more this year helped to ease pressures on LatAm markets this week, particularly FX. The way is now clear for some LatAm central banks to cut interest rates rapidly over the coming months, even before U.S. fiscal and trade policy becomes clear. We expect the next Fed rate hike to come in June, as the labor market continues to tighten. If we're right, the free-risk window for LatAm rate cuts is relatively short.

18 September 2018 Andean Economies Started Q3 Strongly, Can this Trend Continue (Publication Centre)

Colombia's economy remained resilient in July, thanks to strong domestic demand and relatively good external conditions for the country's top exports.

18 October. 2016 Conditions are Right For Brazil to Ease Tomorrow, More to Come (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in LatAm are moderating, and governments have been taking steps to pursue fiscal consolidation. These factors, coupled with a relatively favourable external environment, are providing policymakers with the opportunity to start relaxing monetary policy.

18 Nov. 2015 Weak Manufacturing Won't Push the EZ Economy into Recession (Publication Centre)

Historical evidence suggests that we should be worried about the relative weakness in the Eurozone's manufacturing sector. Industrial production ex-construction has historically been a key indicator of the business cycle, despite accounting for a comparatively modest 19% of total value-added in the euro area. In all three previous major downturns, underperformance in the manufacturing sector sounded the alarm six-to-nine months in advance that the economy was about to slip into recession.

19 December 2016 Banxico Defies Expectations with a Bold Pre-emptive Rate Increase (Publication Centre)

Banxico delivered its fifth 50bp rise of 2016 last Thursday, taking Mexico's main interest rate to 5.75%, its highest level since early 2009. Markets expected a 25bp increase, not least because the MXN has been relatively stable since Banxico's previous meeting in November.

19 December 2018 Another Strong Economic Activity Index in Brazil Outlook is Upbeat (Publication Centre)

Brazil is back on global investors' radar screens. Financial market metrics capture a relatively robust bullish tone, especially since the presidential election.

19 July 2017 Peru's Economy is Recovering But Temporary Political Noise is a Drag (Publication Centre)

Following a challenging start to this year, Andean economic prospects are improving gradually, thanks to falling interest rates, lower inflation, relatively stable currencies and--in some cases--increased infrastructure spending.

19 January 2018 The COP and MXN are Rising, but Domestic Politics are a Big Hurdle (Publication Centre)

NAFTA-related news has been mixed over the last few weeks.

19 February 2019 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Q4, but it Will Rebound Soon (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively soft footing.

18 Mar. 2016 Medical Costs are Accelerating, but Goods Will Lift Core PCE Too (Publication Centre)

In the excitement over the FOMC meeting--all things are relative--we ran out of space to cover some of this week's other data, notably the PPI, industrial production and housing starts. They are worth a recap, given that only the Michigan sentiment report will be released today.

18 Mar. 2015 Strong position for the EU in the coming negotiations with Greece (Publication Centre)

Demands that Germany pay reparations from the Second World War, and the apparently deteriorating relationship between Messrs. Varoufakis and Schauble, have further complicated talks between the Eurogroup and Greece in recent weeks.

17 October. 2016 Banxico Minutes Confirm that FX Speculation is the Key Rate Threat (Publication Centre)

Banxico is one of the few central banks in LatAm to have hiked rates in 2016, and we expect it to remain relatively hawkish in the face of external risks.

17 November 2017 Commodities Tailwind Helping Andean Economies to Recover (Publication Centre)

Colombian activity data released this week were relatively strong, but mostly driven by the primary sectors; consumption remains sluggish compared to previous standards.

17 Nov. 2015 Core Inflation Creeping Stealthily Higher - Soon, Markets Will Notice (Publication Centre)

The upturn in core CPI inflation this year has passed by almost unnoticed in the markets and media. In the year to September, the core CPI rose 1.9%, up from a low of 1.6% in January. But that's still a very low rate, and with core PCE inflation unchanged at only 1.3% over the same period, it's easy to see why investors have remained relaxed. In our view, though, things are about to change, because a combination of very adverse base effects and gradually increasing momentum in the monthly numbers, is set to lift both core inflation measures substantially over the next few months.

17 Sept. 2015 No rate hike today - December a better bet than October? (Publication Centre)

We expect the Fed not to raise rates today. In the eyes of the waverers who will need to change their minds in order to trigger action, the latest data-- especially wages--do not make a compelling case for immediate action, and the obvious fragility of markets strengthens the case for doing nothing today. This is a Fed which in recent years has greatly preferred to err on the side of caution. With no immediate inflation threat, the waverers and the doves will take the view that the cost of delaying the first move until October or December is small. As far as we can tell, they are the majority on the committee.

18 August 2017 Retail Sales Accelerated in June, But Were Weak Over Q2 as a Whole (Publication Centre)

Economic data in Brazil over the second quarter were relatively positive, and June reports released in recent weeks, coupled with leading indicators for July, are encouraging.

18 January 2019 Manufacturing Output Likely Jumped in December Don't be Deceived (Publication Centre)

The monthly industrial production numbers are collected and released by the Fed, rather than the BEA, so today's December report will not be delayed by the government shutdown.

18 January 2018 Will the ECB's Real Reaction Function Please Stand Up? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone inflation data have been relatively calm in the past six months. The headline rate has been stable at about 1.5%, and the core rate has fluctuated closely around 1%.

18 December 2017 Has Plunging Healthcare Inflation Held Down Nominal Wage Gains? (Publication Centre)

The shortfall in nominal wage growth, relative to measures of labor market tightness, remains the single biggest mystery of this business cycle.

15 August. 2016 Don't Fret Over the July Retail Sales and PPI Data (Publication Centre)

Let's be clear: The July retail sales numbers do not mean the consumer is rolling over, and the PPI numbers do not mean that disinflation pressure is intensifying. We argued in the Monitor last Friday, ahead of the sales data, that the 4.2% surge in second quarter consumption--likely to be revised up slightly--could not last, and the relative sluggishness of the July core retail sales numbers is part of the necessary correction. Headline sales were depressed by falling gasoline prices, which subtracted 0.2%.

15 Apr. 2015 Plunging utility output and oil well-drilling to depress March IP (Publication Centre)

The combination of weather effects and the meltdown in the oil sector make it very hard to spot the underlying trend in manufacturing activity. The sudden collapse in oil-related capital spending likely is holding down production of equipment, but the data don't provide sufficient detail to identify the hit with any precision.

10 April 2019 Brazil's Retail Sector Slowed in Q1 Better Credit Conditions will Help (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic activity data have disappointed in recent months, firming expectations that the Q1 GDP report will show another relatively meagre expansion.

10 April 2018 China's Capital Outflows Remain Modest, but will Pick up (Publication Centre)

China's FX reserves were relatively stable in March, with the minimal increase driven by currency valuation effects.

1 Oct. 2015 Ignore the ADP Headline, But Dig Deeper to Find Real Information (Publication Centre)

You might want a strong coffee before you read today's Monitor, because we're going deep inside the relationship between the ADP employment report and the official numbers. We have long argued that ADP's headline reading is not a useful indicator of payrolls, because the numbers are heavily influenced by the official payroll data for the previous month, which are inputs to the ADP model. To be clear, ADP's employment number is not generated solely from hard data from companies which use the company for payroll processing; that information is just one input to their model.

10 December 2018 Parliamentary Maths Points to Only One Plan B for the Prime Minister (Publication Centre)

Unless it blinks and delays, the government is on course for a hefty defeat on Tuesday, when it asks parliament to vote to approve the Withdrawal Agreement--WA--and Political Declaration.

10 June. April's 'Surge' in Exports Does Not Point to a Brexit Silver Lining (Publication Centre)

News yesterday that exports surged to a record high in April was leapt on as "evidence" that sterling's Brexit-related weakness already is having positive side-effects and that therefore the economy would be relatively unscathed by a Brexit. However appealing this explanation may sound, it is nonsense.

10 May. Hold Your Nerve on Brexit Risk, Despite Troubling Polls (Publication Centre)

With just over six weeks to go, opinion polls continue to suggest that the E.U. referendum will be extremely close. Noisy interventions in the public debate from the Treasury, independent international bodies, President Obama, and from the Prime Minister again today have had no discernible positive impact on the support for "Bremain" relative to "Brexit"

10 May 2018 Still-Weak Consumption Means the MPC has to Tread Carefully (Publication Centre)

The MPC was relatively bullish on the outlook for households' spending when it signalled its view, in February's Inflation Report, that the case for raising interest rates before the end of this year had strengthened.

10 March 2017 Evidence of a Brazilian Business Cycle Recovery this Year is Building (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector had a relatively good start to the year. Data on Wednesday showed that production fell 0.1% month-to-month in January, less than markets expected, and the year-over-year rate rose to 1.4%, after a 0.1% drop in December.

1 Oct. 2015 Deflation Will Likely Bully the ECB to Expand QE this Month (Publication Centre)

Economic survey data have been upbeat recently, but key Eurozone data releases yesterday suggest the ECB will be under pressure to increase monetary policy stimulus further this month. The advance inflation estimate showed that the euro area slipped back into deflation in September, as inflation fell to -0.1% year-over- year, from +0.1% in August. The fall was mainly due to a 8.9% collapse in energy prices, though, and we are very confident the relapse is temporary.

1 March 2019 China's Latest PMIs Give no Reason for Hope Trade Partners Beware (Publication Centre)

Chinese data still are in the midst of Lunar New Year-related noise, so take February's PMIs with a pinch of salt, even though they ostensibly are adjusted for seasonal effects.

03 Feb. 2016 Stan Fischer Wants Steady 3% Wage Gains - Good Luck (Publication Centre)

Stanley Fischer said something interesting and potentially very revealing in the Q&A following his speech Tuesday afternoon at the Council on Foreign Relations. The Fed Vice-Chair argued that wage increases of 3% are "where people would like to be", meaning, presumably, that he believes sustained wage gains at this pace are consistent with the Fed's 2% medium-term inflation forecast.

*March 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Markets think a May rate hike is almost certain...but activity and inflation data point to a delay

*April 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

MPC to delay in May due to Q1 GDP and Inflation...Political risks will resurface later this year

04 October. 2016 Colombian Voters Reject Peace Deal, Leaping into the Unknown (Publication Centre)

Colombians have rejected the peace deal with FARC guerrillas to end 52 years of war. The referendum saw relatively poor turnout--almost two thirds of voters abstained--but delivered 50.2% votes against the deal.

07 Jan. 2016 Uncertainty Over China's Currency Intentions Set to Persist (Publication Centre)

The 2.4% depreciation of the yuan over the past month has not been quite as big as the 3.0% move on August 11, and it's not a big enough shift to make a material difference to aggregate U.S. export performance. Market nerves, then, seem to us to be largely a reflection of fear of what might come next. China's real effective exchange rate--the trade-weighted index adjusted for relative inflation rates--has risen relentlessly over the past decade, and to restore competitiveness to, say, its 2011 level, would require a 20%-plus devaluation.

1 June 2018 Brazil Started the Year with a Subpar Rebound, Will it Improve? (Publication Centre)

Data released on Wednesday confirmed that the Brazilian economy was relatively resilient in Q1. Leading indicators suggest that it will do well in Q2 and Q3, but downside risks are rising.

08 Jan. 2016 Will Lower Oil Prices and Equity Volatility Force the ECB's Hand? (Publication Centre)

The relatively upbeat message from a plethora of Eurozone data this week remains firmly sidelined by chaos in equity and credit markets. EZ Equities struggled towards the end of last year in the aftermath of the disappointing ECB stimulus package, and now, renewed weakness in oil prices and further Chinese currency devaluation have added pressure, by refocusing attention on already weak areas in the global economy.

08 Feb. 2016 If the Fed Focuses on Wages, They'll Hike in March (Publication Centre)

The Fed's decisions over the next few months hinge on the relative importance policymakers place on the apparent slowdown in payroll growth and the unambiguous acceleration in wages. We qualify our verdict on the payroll numbers because the January number was very close to our expectation, which in turn was based largely on an analysis of the seasonals, not the underlying economy.

10 Nov. 2015 Focus on Older Workers in Jobs Report Misses the Bigger Picture (Publication Centre)

Investors and market observers of a relatively bearish persuasion argued over the weekend that the details of the October employment report were less encouraging than the headline, principally because the household survey showed that all the job growth, net, was among older workers, defined as people aged 55-plus. This, they argue, suggests that most of the increased demand for labor was concentrated in low-paid service sector jobs, where older workers are concentrated, perhaps reflecting retail hiring ahead of the holidays. Such a wave of hiring is unlikely to be repeated over the next few months, so payroll growth won't be sustained at its October pace.

11 January 2017 Black Friday Drove Sales Higher in Brazil, is a Hangover Coming? (Publication Centre)

Brazil's consumer recession finally eased in November. Retail sales jumped 2.0% month-to- month, following an upwardly-revised 0.3% drop in October, and the year-over-year rate rose to -3.5% from -8.1%. November's astonishing performance probably reflects seasonal adjustment problems related to Black Friday discounting. Sales have climbed in the last four Novembers, suggesting that consumers' pre-Christmas spending patterns have shifted permanently.

13 Sept 2019 Brazil's Retail Sector Started Q3 Solidly will the Uptrend Continue (Publication Centre)

Brazil's outlook is still improving at the margin, as positive economic signals mix with relatively encouraging political news.

13 October 2017 Japan's Commodity-Driven PPI Inflation Hits Consumer Goods (Publication Centre)

Japanese PPI inflation continues to be driven mainly by imported metals and energy price inflation. Metals, energy, power and water utilities, and related items, account for nearly 30% of the PPI.

13 June 2019 Let's Take a Minute to Cheer the Strengthening French Economy (Publication Centre)

On all accounts, growth in France has been modest in the past six-to-12 months, but in relative terms, the French economy is slowly but surely asserting itself as one of the key engines of growth in the EZ.

13 September. 2016 Manufacturing is Improving in Mexico, Other Sectors Weaker (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in Mexico will remain relatively modest over the second half of the year, and the outlook for 2017 remains cloudy, for now. The core fundamentals suggest that growth will increase, but we think that depressed mining output and fiscal tightening might limit the pace of the upturn.

14 Aug 2019 Trump Blinks Again, but Some Consumer Goods will be Tariffed (Publication Centre)

President Trump blinked again yesterday, delaying tariffs on some $150B-worth of Chinese consumer goods until December 15.

14 Oct. 2015 Soaring Auto Sales Should Offset Yet Another Gas Price Hit (Publication Centre)

After last week's relatively light flow of data, today brings a wave of information on both the pace of economic growth and inflation. The markets' attention likely will fall first on the September retail sales numbers, which will be subject to at least three separate forces. First, the jump in auto sales reported by the manufacturers a couple of weeks ago ought to keep the headline sales numbers above water.

14 November 2017 Mexico's Manufacturing Remains Resilient, but NAFTA Risk is High (Publication Centre)

LatAm's economies are starting to expand at a relatively healthy pace, inflation is more or less under control and near-term growth prospects are positive.

14 June. 2016 Eurozone Investment is Improving, But Growth will Slow in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Data today likely will show that manufacturing in the Eurozone was off to a strong start to the second quarter. Advance country data suggest that industrial production jumped 1.1% month-to-month in April, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.9% from 0.1% in March. The rise in output was driven mainly by Germany and France, but decent month-to-month gains in Ireland, Portugal and Greece also helped.

13 July. 2015 Dull Yellen Testimony Given Greek Story - then Back to Labor Data? (Publication Centre)

We expect Greece to do what it needs to do by Wednesday to secure its third bailout, and, judging by her speech in Cleveland last Friday, so does the Fed Chair. It's always risky to assume blithely that European politicians will do the right thing in the end, and they seem absolutely determined to humiliate Greece before writing the checks, but a completed deal is the most likely outcome.

13 April 2018 Stock Price Hit May Hurt Consumers' Sentiment (Publication Centre)

Whatever happened to consumers' sentiment in March, the level of University of Michigan's index will be very high, relative to its long-term average.

11 Mar. 2015 Can the Uptick in New Home Sales be Sustained? (Publication Centre)

In three of the past four months, new home sales have been reported above the 460K top of the range in place since early 2013. Sales dipped below this mark in November, when the weather across the country as a whole was exceptionally cold, relative to normal.

11 July 2018 Will the Strength of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been relatively positive.

11 January 2017 Import Substitution Will Be Modest, Despite Sterling's Depreciation (Publication Centre)

A year has now elapsed since sterling began its precipitous descent, and the trade data still have not improved. Net trade subtracted 0.9 percentage points from year-over-year growth in GDP in Q3. And while the trade deficit of £2.0B in October was the smallest since May, this followed extraordinarily large deficits in the previous two months. In fact, the trade deficit has been on a slightly deteriorating trend over the last year, as our first chart shows, and we expect today's data to show that the deficit re-widened to about £3.5B in November.

11 October 2017 Peru's Central Bank Likely Will Ease Tomorrow, but Room has Shrank (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank likely will cut its main interest rate by 25bp to 3.25% on Thursday. Inflation dipped in September and likely will increase only marginally in October, while economic growth was relatively sluggish at the start of Q3.

11 October 2018 Weak GDP in August Sets the Tone for the Rest of this Year (Publication Centre)

The stagnation of GDP in August, following five consecutive month-to-month gains, confirms that the economy's momentum in prior months was simply weather-related.

12 October. 2016 Monetary Policy Divergence Will Push EURUSD to 1.05 Soon (Publication Centre)

The euro's spectacular rise against the pound has been the key story in European FX markets recently. But the trade-weighted euro, however, is up "only" 6% year-to-date, as a result of the relatively stable EURUSD.

12 Feb. 2016 Collapse in Equity Prices Still Not a Convincing Signal of Recession (Publication Centre)

The downturn in equity prices deepened yesterday, with the FTSE 100 index closing at 5,537, 22% below its April 2015 peak. We remain unconvinced, however, that financial market turmoil is set to push the U.K. economy into a recession. We continue to take comfort from the weakness of the past relationship between equity prices and economic activity.

12 August. 2015 Industrial Production in Mexico is Stabilizing, Better News Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest industrial production figures, released yesterday, showed that growth is stabilizing, but it likely will not accelerate any time soon. June output rose 1.4% year-over-year, rebounding from the 1.0% contraction in May, and matching April's gain. The increase in output was relatively broad-based, with solid gains in mining and utilities.

19 May. 2015 Rising Mortgage Demand Set to Boost Summer New Home Sales (Publication Centre)

The level of mortgage applications long ago ceased to be a reliable indicator of the level of new home sales, thanks to the fracturing of the mortgage market triggered by the financial crash. But the rates of change of mortgage demand and new home sales are correlated, as our first chart shows, and the current message clearly is positive.

18 December 2017 The Easing Cycle is Ending in Most of LatAm, Mexico will be the Outlier (Publication Centre)

Most central banks in LatAm have ended the year in a relatively comfortable position; their economies are improving and inflation is under control or even falling.

27 February 2017 Banxico Faces Real Pressures, but bad News is Priced-In to the MXN (Publication Centre)

Mexico's policymakers are battling two opposing forces. First, inflation pressures are rising, on the back of the one-time increase in petrol prices and the lagged effect of the MXN's sell-off in Q4. These factors are pushing short-term inflation expectations higher, even though the MXN has remained relatively stable since President Trump took office and has risen by about 6% against the USD year-to-date.

19 Nov. 2015 A Rebound in Construction Could Lift Investment in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The construction sector in the Eurozone remains moribund. Output fell 0.4% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.8% from a revised 1.4% fall in August. Declines were recorded in France, Germany, and Italy, with a small increase in Spain. These data could, in theory, lead to revisions in the final Q3 Eurozone GDP data released December 8th, but we very much doubt they will move the needle. Our first chart shows the relationship between construction and GDP growth has broken down since the crisis.

26 September. 2016 Mexico's Consumers Spent Freely in July, But Momentum Is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Mexican consumers started the third quarter strongly, supporting our relatively upbeat view for the economy in the near term. Private consumption represents about 70% of Mexico's GDP, one of the consumption shares in the EM world, so the strength of spending is hugely important.

26 Oct. 2015 Mexico's Private Consumption is the Key Driver of the Upswing (Publication Centre)

The tumultuous political and economic crises in Brazil continue to feed off each other, grabbing most of the LatAm headlines. Sentiment will remain depressed, and volatility and uncertainty will persist, hampering any real signs of stabilization in the near-term. The Pacific Alliance countries, by contrast, managed to grow at relatively solid rates during the first half of this year, after absorbing the hit from falling commodity prices.

27 June 2017 Mexican Economic Growth Will be Sustained over the Second Half (Publication Centre)

Economic activity in Mexico during the past few months has been relatively resilient, as external and domestic threats appear to have diminished.

27 Mar. 2015 Banxico Still Eyeing a Rate Hike After the Fed Moves in June (Publication Centre)

This week's economic data for the Mexican economy have been encouraging, especially for Banxico, which left its main interest rate unchanged yesterday at 3.0%. Inflation remained on target for the second consecutive month in the first half of February, and the closely-watched IGAE economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--continued to grow at a relatively solid pace, despite the big hit from lower oil prices.

28 September 2016 No Scope For Complacency on Inflation as Import Prices Rise (Publication Centre)

Our forecast that CPI inflation will shoot up to about 3% in the second half of 2017, from 0.6% last month, assumes that pass-through from the exchange rate to consumer goods prices will be as swift and complete as in the past. Our first chart shows that this relationship has held firm recently, with core goods prices falling at the rate implied by sterling's appreciation in 2014 and 2015.

28 July 2017 The Eurozone is in fine form, as we start our summer break (Publication Centre)

This is the final report before your scribe disappears into the Scottish Highlands for a few weeks, and we are leaving you with a Eurozone economy in fine form. The calendar will be relatively light in our absence and will tell us what we already know; namely that the euro area economy maintained its strong momentum in Q2.

28 February 2017 Colombia's Economy is Struggling, but Further Easing is Coming (Publication Centre)

The Colombian economy was relatively resilient at the end of last year, but economic reports released during the last few weeks indicate that growth is still fragile, and that downside risks have increased. Real GDP rose 1.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.6% from 1.2% in Q3.

26 May 2017 Mexican Consumption Will Slow as Tighter Financial Conditions Bite (Publication Centre)

Consumers' spending in Mexico was relatively resilient at the end of Q1, but we think it will slow in the second quarter. Data released this week showed that retail sales rose a strong-looking 6.1% year-over-year in March, well above market expectations, and up from 3.6% in February.

26 June. 2015 Mexico's Economy Improves in April - Oil Distorts the Picture (Publication Centre)

The underlying state of the Mexican economy is still positive, despite recent signs of a modest slowdown. The IGAE economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--rose 2.1% year-over-year in April, a relatively solid pace, but down from 2.8% in March, and 2.6% in Q1.

25 July 2018 China's Scope for Fiscal Expansion is Surprisingly Limited (Publication Centre)

The PBoC and Ministry of Finance have been locked in a relatively public debate recently over which body should shoulder the burden of stimulating the economy as growth slows and trade tensions take their toll.

25 Jan. 2016 PMIs Point to Stable GDP Growth, Despite Disappointing Dip (Publication Centre)

Advance PMI data indicate a slow start to the first quarter for the Eurozone economy. The composite index fell to 53.5 in January from 54.3 in December, due to weakness in both services and manufacturing. The correlation between month-to-month changes in the PMI and MSCI EU ex-UK is a decent 0.4, and we can't rule out the ide a that the horrible equity market performance has dented sentiment. The sudden swoon in markets, however, has also led to fears of an imminent recession. But it would be a major overreaction to extrapolate three weeks' worth of price action in equities to the real economy.

25 August. 2015 The Stock Drop is Unwelcome, but the Market is not the Economy (Publication Centre)

If you want to know what's going to happen to the real economy over, say, the next year, don't look to the stock market for reliable clues. The relationship between swings in stock prices over single quarters and GDP growth over the following year is nonexistent, as our next chart shows.

25 May 2018 Brazil's Inflation Remains Low, Mexico's GDP Brings Positive News (Publication Centre)

In a relatively light week in terms of economic indicators in Brazil, the inflation numbers and the potential effect of the recent BRL sell-off garnered all the attention.

25 October 2017 September Durable Orders are Hard to Call, Thanks to the Hurricanes (Publication Centre)

We have been very encouraged in recent months to see core capital goods orders breaking to the upside, relative to the trend implied by the path of oil prices.

26 January 2018 Q4 Growth Likely Near 3%, but Real Uncertainties in Trade, Inventories (Publication Centre)

need to add docMea culpa: We failed to spot the press release from the Commerce Department announcing the delay of the release of the advance December trade and inventory data, due to the government shutdown.

25 Sept. 2015 Mexico's Recovery Still in Place, And Brazil's Woes Deepening (Publication Centre)

The state of the Mexican economy is still favorable, despite the slowdown over the last few quarters. This week, the IGAE economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--rose 2.0% year-over-year in July, a relatively solid pace, but down from 3.2% in June, and 2.6% in the first half. All these data suggest that economic activity failed to gather momentum at the beginning of Q3 after a disappointing first half of the year.

25 Sept. 2015 Economic Sentiment is Holding Up amid Investor Angst (Publication Centre)

The two main national surveys--IFO and INSEE-- both beat consensus forecasts yesterday, supporting our story of that economic sentiment is holding up relatively well in the face increasing investor anxiety. In Germany, the main IFO business climate index rose marginally to 108.5 from a revised 108.4 in August, boosted by an increase in the expectations index to a six-month high of 103.3, up from 102.0 in August. The IFO expectations index points to real GDP growth rising 0.5%-to-0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q3.

29 April 2019 Mexico's Economy is Stabilizing, Despite Stifling Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Mexico remains relatively sticky, limiting Banxico's capacity to adopt a more dovish approach, despite the subpar economic recovery.

29 Feb. 2016 The Weaker Pound has not Transformed the Export Outlook (Publication Centre)

In theory, any hit to sentiment and business investment as the E.U. referendum nears could be offset by a better foreign trade performance, due to the Brexit-related depreciation of sterling. But not every cloud has a silver lining.

4 April 2017 The Spanish and U.K. Navies won't Have to Fight over Gibraltar (Publication Centre)

The EU's negotiations with the U.K. over Brexit are off to a bad start. The position in Brussels is that negotiations on a new relationship can't begin before the bill on the U.K.'s existing membership is settled. But this has been met with resistance by Westminster; the U.K. does not recognise the condition of an upfront payment to leave.

31 October 2017 The Mexican Economy Remained Resilient in Q3, Despite Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Today's advance Q3 GDP report for Mexico will show that the economy performed relatively well at the start of the second half, despite external and domestic shocks.

31 May 2017 Argentina's Economic Recovery Continues, but Brazil's is at Risk (Publication Centre)

The outlook for Argentina is improving. We expect economic growth to remain quite strong over the next year, despite a relatively soft start to 2017 and increasing external threats in recent weeks. The INDEC index of economic activity--a monthly proxy for GDP--is volatile, rising 1.9% month-to-month in March after a 2.6% drop in February, but the underlying trend is improving.

4 August. 2016 Will the ECB Take The Markets' Hint on Negative Interest Rates? (Publication Centre)

Markets initially applauded the ECB for its bold actions, but the tune has changed recently. Negative interest rates, in particular, have been vilified for their margin destroying effect in the banking sector. Our first chart shows that the relative performance of financials in the EZ equity market has dwindled steadily in line with the plunge in yields.

4 January 2017 December's ISM looks great, but it's not definitive (Publication Centre)

It probably would be wise to view the increase in the ISM manufacturing index in December with a degree of skepticism. The index is supposed to record only hard activity, but we can't help but wonder if some of the euphoria evident in surveys of consumers' sentiment has leaked into responses to the ISM. That said, the jump in the key new orders index-- which tends to lead the other components--looked to be overdue, relative to the strength of the import component of China's PMI.

4 June 2018 The Economy Should be Less Lethargic in 2019 (Publication Centre)

We're relatively optimistic--yes, you read that correctly--on the outlook for the U.K. economy in 2019.

4 July. 2016 Industrial Output in Brazil has Hit Bottom, but No Quick Recovery (Publication Centre)

Friday's Brazilian industrial production data were relatively positive. Output was unchanged month-to-month in May, and April's marginal gain was revised slightly higher. The flat monthly reading pushed year-over-year growth in output up marginally to -8.9% from -9.1%. May production rose month-to-month in two of the four major categories.

4 January 2019 Mexican Economic Growth Will Continue, but at a Very Modest Pace (Publication Centre)

The economic calendar in Mexico was relatively quiet over Christmas, and broadly conformed to our expectations of resilient economic activity in Q4.

31 January 2018 The Mexican Economy Rebounded Strongly in Q4, Thanks to Services (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of full-year 2017 GDP in Mexico indicates that growth was relatively resilient, despite domestic and external threats and the hit from the natural disasters over the second half of the year.

30 September. 2016 August Spending is Less Worrying than the Scope for Higher In ation (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's relatively good news--we discuss the implications of the August trade data below--will be followed by rather more mixed reports today. We hope to see a partial rebound, at least, in the September Chicago PMI, but we fully expect soft August consumer spending data.

29 Oct. 2015 EZ Consumers Remain Upbeat, but Downside Risks in Germany (Publication Centre)

Consumer sentiment data yesterday from the major economies were mixed, signalling that support to Eurozone GDP growth from surging German household consumption is waning. The key "business outlook" index--which correlates best with spending--plunged to a 30-month low in October, while the advance GfK sentiment index dipped to 9.4 in November from 9.6 in October. We see little signs in retail sales data of slowing momentum, and also think consumers' spending rebounded in Q3. But our first chart shows that the fall in the GfK index implies clear downside risks in coming quarters.

29 June 2017 China's Debt is not too High, but it Grew too Fast - Reckoning will Come (Publication Centre)

China's total debt stock is high for a country at its stage of development, relative to GDP, but it is sustainable for country with excess savings. China was never going to be a typical EM, where external debtors can trigger a crisis by demanding payment.

29 January 2019 External Accounts in Brazil and Mexico are no Threat, For Now (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts were a relatively bright spot last year, once again.

29 September. 2016 Rocketing Soybean Exports Set to Hold Down August Trade Deficit (Publication Centre)

Today is all about beans. Specifically, soybeans, and more specifically, just how many of them were exported in August. This really matters, because if soybean exports in August and September remained close to their hugely elevated July level, the surge in exports relative to the second quarter will contribute about one percentage point to headline GDP growth.

3 Dec. 2015 Low Inflation Expectations Won't Become Self-Fulfilling (Publication Centre)

Households' inflation expectations have fallen again over the last few months, but we doubt they will constrain the forthcoming rebound in actual inflation. Past experience shows that inflation expectations are more of a coincident than a leading indicator of inflation. In addition, inflation is weakest right now in sectors where demand is relatively insensitive to price changes, so, when retailers' costs rise, they won't pay much heed to households' expectations.

30 June. 2016 Commodities are Helping LatAm's Recovery - Brexit not a Deal-Breaker (Publication Centre)

The downturn in LatAm is finally bottoming out, but the economy of the region as a whole will not return to positive year-over-year economic growth until next year. The domestic side of the region's economy is improving, at the margin, thanks mainly to the improving inflation picture, and relatively healthy labor markets.

3 February 2017 Brazil's Q4 Industrial Output was Poor, Q1 Will be Much Better (Publication Centre)

Brazil's Q4 industrial production report, released Wednesday, confirmed that the recovery remained sluggish at the end of last year. December's print alone was relatively strong, though, and the cyclical correction in inventories--on the back of improving demand--lower interest rates, and the better external outlook, all suggest that the industrial economy will do much better this year.

3 December 2018 Tariff Deferment Shows Both Sides Want a Deal, but it Will Take Time (Publication Centre)

The agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 is a deferment of disaster rather than a fundamental rebuilding of the trading relationship between the U.S. and China.

25 April 2017 Mexico's IGAE Confirms a Surprisingly Firm Economy in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Economic activity in Mexico during the past few months has been stronger than most observers expected. Growth has certainly moderated from the relatively strong pace recorded during the second half of last year, but data for January and February show that it is still quite strong.

27 Apr. 2015 Accelerating high-wage job growth to lift hourly earnings? (Publication Centre)

We have argued for some time that the hourly earnings data, which take no account of changes in the mix of employment by industry or occupation, have been depressed over the past year by the relatively rapid growth of low-paid jobs.

20 Nov. 2015 Will Corporate Yields Become a Good Leading Indicator Again? (Publication Centre)

In the years before the crash of 2008, if you wanted to know what was likely to happen to the pace of U.S. economic growth, all you needed to know was what happened to corporate bond yields a year earlier. The correlation between movements in BBB industrial yields--not spreads--and the changes in the rate of GDP growth, lagged by a year, was remarkably strong from 1994 through 2008, as our first chart shows. Roughly, a 50 basis point increase in yields could be expected to reduce the pace of year-over-year GDP growth--the second differential, in other words--by about 1.5 percentage points.

20 May. 2016 Falling PPI Goods Prices Don't Signal Lower Core CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

If you gave us $100, we'd put $90 on inflation, headline and core, being higher a year from now than it is today. Our view, however, is not universally shared, and some commentators continue to argue that the U.S. faces deflation risks. Exhibit one for this view is our first chart, which shows a high correlation between the PPI for finished goods prices and the CPI inflation rate, ex-shelter.

20 June. 2016 How Can the Fed Escape From the Loop of Endless Inaction? (Publication Centre)

For some time, the Fed has been locked in a loop of endless inaction. Every time the economic data improve and the Fed signals it is preparing to raise rates, either markets--both domestic and global-- react badly, and/or a patch of less good data appear. The nervous, cautious Yellen Fed responds by dialling back the talk of tightening, and markets relax again, until the next time.

20 October. 2016 Rising Prices Will Arrest the Strong Trend in Retail Sales Next Year (Publication Centre)

It's hard to have much conviction in any forecast for September retail sales, as the relationship between the official data and the surveys has weakened considerably.

21 December 2016 Consumption Likely Remained Firm in Mexico in Q4, But it Will Slow (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's report on October private spending in Mexico was positive, suggesting that consumption remained relatively strong at the start of Q4. Retail sales jumped 1.6% month-to-month, following a modest 0.2% drop in September. October's rebound was the biggest gain since March this year, but note that wild swings are not unusual in these data. The headline year-over-year rate rose to 9.3%, from 8.1% in September, but survey data signal to a gradual slowdown in coming months to around 5%.

21 March 2018 The BRL is Flat Year-to-Date, but Politics is Driving Some Pressures (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian BRL has remained relatively stable year-to-date, following a strong rebound in January. But downward pressures have re-emerged over the last two months, as shown in our first chart.

21 March 2017 LatAm's Gradual Recovery will Ease Concerns on the Fiscal Front (Publication Centre)

Latin American markets have been relatively resilient this year, despite Fed tightening and high global political risks. The LACI index has risen more than 5% year-to-date, and the MSCI index has been trending higher since late last year.

21 July. 2016 Upside Risk for July Existing Home Sales - Price Gains Should Rebound (Publication Centre)

A very light week for U.S. data concludes today with four economic reports, which likely will be mixed, relative to the consensus forecasts. The recent run of clear upside surprises and robust-looking headline numbers is likely over, for the most part.

20 February 2018 Brazil's Momentum Improved in Q4, and Will Remain Solid this Year (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released yesterday, showed that the economy ended the year in relatively good shape.

20 February 2017 Should Sterling Investors Fear a Snap General Election? (Publication Centre)

Elections will be held on Thursday in two constituencies vacated recently by Labour MPs. Betting markets are pricing-in a 70% chance that the Conservatives will win the by-election in Copeland--even though they trailed Labour there by eight points in the general election in 2015--mainly because around 60% of Copeland's electorate voted to leave the EU last year.

2 January 2018 Bank Lending in the Eurozone Will Strengthen Further in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The economic calendar in the euro area was relatively quiet over Christmas, and broadly conformed to our expectations.

19 October 2018 Soft September Sales Set the Tone for Retail in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Retail sales fell back to earth in September, indicating that the pick-up in spending over the summer largely was a weather-related blip.

19 November 2018 Keep the Faith in Stronger Sterling by the End of March (Publication Centre)

Sterling took another pounding last week. Resignations from the Cabinet, protests by the DUP, and the public submission of letters by 21 MPs calling for a confidence vote in Mrs. May's leadership, imply that parliament won't ratify the current versions of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration on the future relationship with the E.U. next month.

2 July 2019 Mr. Trump Removes the Gun from Mr. Xi's Head... Now a Deal? (Publication Centre)

We anticipated that the G20 meeting at Osaka over last weekend would be a potentially important mark of thawing relations between China and the U.S., with the hotly awaited meeting between Messrs. Xi and Trump.

2 July 2019 The Sino-U.S. Trade Truce is Good News for LatAm, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

The truce in trade relations between the U.S. and China, agreed at the G20, is good news for LatAm, at least for now.

20 February 2017 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Q4, but it Will Rebound, Soon (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively soft footing. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 0.3% month-to-month, though the year-over-year rate rose to -1.8%, from -2.2% in November.

24 Mar. 2016 EZ Consumers' Spending Is Slowing, but Won't Collapse (Publication Centre)

All the evidence indicates that growth in Eurozone consumers' spending is slowing. We think data today will show that the advance GfK consumer sentiment index in Germany was unchanged at 9.5 in April, but the headline index does not correlate well with spending. The "business expectations" index is better, and while it likely will increase slightly, our first chart shows that it continues to signal a slowdown in consumers' spending growth.

2 June. 2015 Q2 Consumption Heading for 2.5% - Q3 Should be Far Stronger (Publication Centre)

Markets weren't impressed by the sub-consensus consumption numbers for April, reported yesterday, but the undershoot was all in the we ather-related utility component, where spending plunged 5.1% month-to-month. The process of post-winter mean reversion is now complete.

21 November 2017 Chile's Economy Rebounded in Q3, but Politics Will Dominate the News (Publication Centre)

Incoming data confirm our view that the Chilean economy to rebound steadily in the second half of the year, with real GDP increasing 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, after a relatively modest 0.9% increase in Q2 and a meagre 0.1% in Q1.

2 Sept. 2015 Chile's Economic Recovery Stutters, Risks To Growth Increase (Publication Centre)

Chile's activity numbers at the beginning of Q3 were mediocre, suggesting that the economy remains sluggish. The industrial production index--comprising mining, manufacturing, and utility output--fell by 1.7% year-over-year in July, reversing a 1.6% expansion in June. A disappointing 4.5% year-over-year contraction in mining activity depressed the July headline index, following a 1.4% increase in June. The moderation in output growth was due to maintenance-related shutdowns at key processing plants, and disruptions from labor strikes, especially a three-week strike by contract workers at Codelco--the state-owned mining firm--which badly hit production.

24 April 2017 Brazil's Disinflation Continues, Expect Further Rapid Easing Ahead (Publication Centre)

While we were out, Brazil's data were relatively positive, showing that inflation is still falling quickly and economic activity is stabilizing. The country has made a rapid and convincing escape from high inflation over the past year.

23 January 2019 Unemployment in Mexico Ended Q4 Badly Uncertainty is Biting (Publication Centre)

We expect the Mexican economy to continue growing close to 2% year-over-year in 2019, driven mainly by consumption, but constrained by weak investment, due to prolonged uncertainty related to trade.

23 August. 2016 The Inventory Cycle is About to Turn, Worsening the Downturn (Publication Centre)

Whether the economy enters recession will hinge more on corporate behaviour than on consumers. Household spending accounts for about two thirds of GDP, but it is a relatively stable component of demand. By contrast, business investment and inventories--which are often overlooked--are prone to wild swings.

24 April 2019 Colombia's Economy is Gathering Speed following a Soft End to 2018 (Publication Centre)

Colombia's recently-released data signal that the economy started the year quite strongly, following a relatively poor end to Q4.

24 January 2017 LatAm Currencies Enjoying a Moment of Calm, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Most LatAm currencies traded higher against the USD yesterday, adding to the gains achieved after Donald Trump's inauguration last Friday. The MXN, which was the best performer during yesterday's session, was up about 0.8%; it was followed by the CLP, and the BRL. The positive performance of most LatAm currencies, especially the MXN, is related to positioning and technical factors.

22 August 2017 Economic Activity is Turning Up in LatAm, but no Boom Coming (Publication Centre)

LatAm's economies are gradually rebounding, boosted by easier monetary policy in most countries, falling inflation, and a relatively calm external backdrop.

24 Mar. 2015 Risks are Rising Rapidly in Greece, but Grexit Will Likely be Avoided (Publication Centre)

In a letter earlier this month, Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras warned German chancellor Angela Merkel that failure to disburse additional bailout funds would lead to an imminent cash crunch. Last week's meeting with EU leaders and the ECB yielded no progress, intensifying the risk that Greece will literally run out of money within weeks.

24 June. 2016 Brexit Implications for the U.S: No Immediate Fed Easing (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s unexpected vote for Brexit means a stronger dollar for the foreseeable future, a sharp though likely containable drop in U.S. stock prices, and a further delay before the Fed next raises rates. The vote does not necessarily mean the U.K. actually will leave the EU, because the policy choices now facing leaders of Union have changed dramatically. An offer of substantial concessions on the migration issue--the single biggest driver of the Leave vote-- might be enough to trigger a second referendum, but this is a consideration for another day.

23 August. 2016 EZ PMIs to Signal Stable GDP Growth in the Third Quarter (Publication Centre)

Today's market attention will be focused on the advance August PMI data in the major EZ economies. We think the composite PMI in the euro area was unchanged at 53.2 in August, consistent with stable GDP growth of 0.3%-to-0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3. The signal of "stability" in the Eurozone business cycle has been consistently relayed by the PMI since the beginning of the year.

24 Feb. 2016 Mexico's GDP Slowed in Q4, but Services are Still Resilient (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy slowed marginally in Q4, due mainly to the challenging external environment, but the domestic economy remains relatively healthy. Real GDP rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, following a 0.8% solid expansion in Q3. Year-over-year growth dipped to 2.5% from 2.8%.

22 December 2017 The Public Finances are on Track This Year, but New Challenges Loom (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor can go on his Christmas vacation content that the public finances have weathered the economy's slowdown relatively well this year.

23 August 2017 Mexican Economy was Firm in H1, H2 Will be Soft, but 2018 Better (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed Mexican GDP report confirmed that growth was relatively resilient in Q2, despite the lagged effect of external and domestic headwinds.

22 Dec. 2015 Miserable Economic And Political News Keeps Coming For Brazil (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recent political and economics news has shifted the near-term outlook from bad to worse. President Rousseff on Friday replaced hawkish Finance Minister Joaquim Levy, appointed just over a year ago, with a close partner, Planning Minister Nelson Barbosa. Mr. Levy resigned after continued conflicts with the government, including frustration by the Congress of his attempts to rein in the fiscal mess. Mr. Barbosa is known to be less market friendly, and will likely defend countercyclical measures, delaying any rapid fiscal consolidation. The appointment will deteriorate investors' confidence even further, placing the markets under enormous strain.

22 March 2017 Why Are Pending Sales Lagging Existing Sales? (Publication Centre)

The remarkably strong existing home sales numbers in recent months, relative to the pending home sales index, are hard to explain. In January, total sales reached 5.69M, some 6% higher than the 5.35M implied by December's pending sales index. The gap between the series has widened in recent months, as our first chart shows, and we think the odds now favor a correction in today's February report.

22 January 2019 The Prime Minister's Plan B Has Little Chance of Success (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister has revealed that her Plan B for Brexit is to get Eurosceptics within the Tory party on side in an attempt to show the E.U. that a deal could be done if the backstop for Northern Ireland was amended. Her plan is highly likely to fail, again.

22 November 2017 What's the Case for Increased Fiscal Stimulus in the Eurozone? (Publication Centre)

The euro area's record-high external surplus has prompted commentators to suggest that the zone has room to loosen fiscal policy to support growth, or at least relax the deficit reduction rules.

22 Sept. 2015 Moody's Fires a Shot Across the Bow on French Sovereign Debt (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi's pledge in 2012 to do "whatever it takes to preserve the euro," and QE have stymied sovereign debt risk in the euro area. At the same time, the EU's relaxed position over debt sustainability was highlighted earlier this year by the Commission's decision to give France two more years to get its deficit below 3% of GDP. But Moody's downgrade of the French government bond rating last week to Aa2 from Aa1 serves as a gentle reminder to investors of the underlying fundamentals.

22 May 2017 LatAm Markets Under Renewed Pressure, but Hold on, for Now (Publication Centre)

LatAm's relatively calm market environment has been thrown into disarray over the last few weeks.New fears of a slowdown in China, political turmoil in the U.S. and, most importantly, the serious corruption allegations facing Brazil's President, Michel Temer, have triggered a modest correction in asset markets and have disrupted the region's near-term policy dynamics.

Claus Vistesen

Claus Vistesen has several years' experience in the independent macro research space, as a freelancer, consultant and, latterly, as Head of Research of Variant Perception, Inc. He holds Master's degrees in economics and finance from the Copenhagen Business School and the University of Hull.

Al Jazeera - Counting the Cost (Media Centre)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia appeared on "Counting the Cost" to discuss Venezuela's Petro launch (9:15 - 12:00)

Wall Street Journal - U.S. Consumer Sentiment Held Steady in Early July (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Consumer Sentiment

Question of the Week, WC 2nd July (Media Centre)

Why is the EZ current account surplus rising and net exports falling at the same time? 

Question of the Week, WC 25th June (Media Centre)

With the Mexican Elections on July 1st, our Chief Latam Economist Andres Abadia has received many questions about the possible outcomes and how this will affect the Mexican economy going forward.

Latin America Key Issues (Publication Centre)

Subscription Terms and Conditions

Terms and conditions and privacy policy for browsing the Pantheon Macroeconomics website.

index

Welcome to Pantheon Macroeconomics, leading provider of Independent Macroeconomic Research

Terms and Conditions

Terms and conditions and privacy policy for browsing the Pantheon Macroeconomics website.

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: Search Results: 376

pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research