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22 March 2017 Inflation Will Continue to Exceed the MPC's Forecast (Publication Centre)

February's consumer price figures provided hard evidence that the import price shock, caused by sterling's depreciation last year, is filtering through faster than the MPC expected. We expect CPI inflation to continue to exceed the forecast set out in February's Inflation Report.

5 August. 2016 The MPC Exceeds Expectations, but Inflation Will Constrain it Next Year (Publication Centre)

The MPC's package of stimulus measures, which exceeded markets' expectations, demonstrates that it is currently placing little weight on the inflation outlook. Even so, if inflation matches our expectations and overshoots the 2% target by a bigger margin next year than the MPC currently thinks is acceptable, it will have to consider its zeal for more stimulus.

20 May 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Exceeded the MPC's Expectations in April (Publication Centre)

We expect April's consumer price figures, due on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation leapt to 2.3%, from 1.9% in March, exceeding the MPC's 2.2% forecast in the latest Inflation Report.

10 Mar. 2015 Don't Panic Over Fall in German Exports, Trend is Still Firm (Publication Centre)

The 12-month average German trade surplus continues to set records, rising to €18.2B in January, but exports started the quarter on a weak note, falling 2.1% month-to-month in January, equivalent to a mere 1.9% rise year-over-year.

17 July 2017 CPI Inflation Likely Held Steady in June, but will Exceed 3% Soon (Publication Centre)

Economists are divided evenly on whether Tuesday's consumer price figures will show that CPI inflation held steady at 2.9% or edged down to 2.8% in June.

19 July 2017 CPI Inflation Still is set to Exceed 3% this Year, Despite June's Pullback (Publication Centre)

The fall in CPI inflation to 2.6% in June, from 2.9% in May, greatly undershot expectations for an unchanged rate and it has made a vote by the MPC to keep interest rates at 0.25% in August a near certainty.

14 September 2018 A Tough Fiscal Overhaul to Avoid a Collapse Can Macri Succeed (Publication Centre)

Argentina's central bank held interest rates at 60% on Wednesday, as was widely expected.

8 May 2018 Into the Weeds with the ECB: How will the Central Bank Proceed? (Publication Centre)

Calling the ECB has suddenly become a lot more complicated.

20 June 2019 All Eyes on Osaka, if the Trade Talks Succeed, the Fed Won't Ease in July (Publication Centre)

The tone of Fed Chair Powell's opening comments at the press conference yesterday was much more dovish than the statement, which did little more than most analysts expected.

27 October. 2016 GDP Set to Exceed the Consensus in Q3, But Underwhelm Thereafter (Publication Centre)

Today's preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP looks set to indicate that the Brexit vote has had little detrimental impact on the economy so far.

20 November 2017 Will Argentina Succeed in Tackling High Inflation and Fiscal Deficits? (Publication Centre)

Argentina's economy is firing on all cylinders, thanks to improving fundamentals and a positive external backdrop.

Bloomberg - Monte Paschi Proceeds With Capital Plan (Media Centre)

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA will step up efforts to win investors for an expanded debt-to-equity swap over the coming days, pressing ahead with a 5 billion-euro ($5.3- billion) capital increase as its options to avoid a state rescue dwindle. Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Euro Zone Economist Claus Vistesen weighs in on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."

30 Oct. 2015 Can the Recovery in Business Investment Maintain Its Pace? (Publication Centre)

Business investment has punched above its weight in the economic recovery from the crash of 2008; annual real growth in capex has averaged 5% over the last five years, greatly exceeding GDP growth of 2%. This recovery is unlikely to grind to a halt soon, since profit margins are still high and borrowing costs will remain low. But corporate balance sheets are not quite as robust as they seem, while capex in the investment-intensive oil sector still has a lot further to fall.

30 September 2016 Today's Eurozone Inflation Data Likely Will Surprise to the Upside (Publication Centre)

Today's advance CPI data will show that EZ inflation pressures rose further at the end of Q3. The headline number likely will exceed the consensus. We think inflation rose to 0.5% year-over-year in September from 0.2% in August, slightly higher than the 0.4% consensus.

30 January 2017 Will the Inflation Report Support Markets' 2017 Rate Hike View? (Publication Centre)

Markets' expectations for official interest rates have shifted up over the last fortnight, and the consensus view now is that the MPC will hike rates before the end of this year. As our first chart shows, the implied probability of interest rates breaching 0.25% in December 2017 now slightly exceeds 50%.

29 Jan. 2016 Little to Console the Optimists in Fourth Quarter GDP (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in Q4 slightly exceeded our expectation and the third quarter's growth rate, both 0.4%. Nonetheless, there was little to console the optimists in the figures. The recovery remains unbalanced, with industrial production and construction output falling by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while services output rose 0.7% quarter-on-quarter.

31 October 2018 Plans for a Modest Near-Term Fiscal Expansion are Future-Proof (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor's decision immediately to spend all the proceeds from the OBR's upgrade to its projections for tax receipts appears to leave his plans exposed to future adverse revisions to the economic outlook.

26 Jan. 2016 Housing Wealth About to Breach the Pre-Crash Peak (Publication Centre)

Sometime very soon, likely in the second quarter of this year, the stock of net housing wealth will exceed the $13.1T peak recorded before the crash, in the fourth quarter of 2005. At the post-crash low, in the first quarter of 2009, net housing equity had fallen by 53%, to just $6.2T. The recovery began in earnest in 2012, and over the past year net housing wealth has been rising at a steady pace just north of 10%. With housing demand rising, credit conditions easing and inventory still very tight, we have to expect home prices to keep rising at a rapid pace.

28 February 2017 Should the ESI's Upbeat Growth Signal be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

The E.C.'s Economic Sentiment Indicator for the U.K., released yesterday, painted an upbeat picture of the economy's recent performance. The ESI picked up to 109.4 in February from 107.1 in January; its average level since 1990 is 100. February's reading was the highest since December 2015, and it slightly exceeded the E.U.'s average of 108.9.

3 February 2017 MPC Signals Newfound Supply Optimism, no Near-Term Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

The absence of hawkish undertones in the minutes of the MPC's meeting or in the Inflation Report forecasts took markets by surprise yesterday. The dominant view on the Committee remains that the economy will slow over the next couple of years, preventing wage growth from reaching a pace which would put inflation on trac k permanently to exceed the 2% target.

6 October 2017 September Payrolls Hit by the Hurricanes, but Earnings set to Pop (Publication Centre)

We would be quite surprised if today's official payroll number exceeded the 135K ADP reading; a clear undershoot is much more likely.

8 November 2018 September GDP Set To Undershoot the Consensus (Publication Centre)

Friday's GDP report likely will fuel concerns the economy has little underlying momentum. Granted, quarter-on-quarter growth probably sped up to 0.6% in Q3--exceeding the economy's potential rate--from 0.4% in Q2.

9 August. 2016 London Will Continue to Bear the Brunt of the Downturn (Publication Centre)

London has been the U.K.'s growth star for the last two decades. Between 1997 and 2014, yearover-year growth in nominal Gross Value Added averaged 5.4% in London, greatly exceeding the 4% rate across the rest of the country. Surveys since the referendum, however, indicate that the capital is at the sharp end of the post-referendum downturn.

9 January 2017 Will Sterling Take a Further Pounding in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Sterling was the worst performing G10 currency in 2016 and most analysts anticipate further weakness in 2017. The cost of purchasing downside protection for sterling over the next year also continues to exceed upside protection, as our first chart shows.

9 Sept. 2015 Inflation still the key concern for Andes' central banks (Publication Centre)

Colombia's August inflation rate exceeded BanRep's 2-to-4% target range yet again, rising to a six-year high of 4.7%, from 4.5% in July. The signs of stabilization over the previous couple of months proved to be temporary. Core inflation has jumped above the upper bound of the inflation target too, climbing to 4.2%--the highest rate since 2009--in August from 4.0% in July, suggesting that the pass-through from the depreciating currency into consumer prices is starting to hurt. Inflation in tradables jumped in August to 5.2% from 4.7%, underscoring the hit from the COP's drop.

8 Dec. 2015 Productivity Growth Still too Weak to Prevent Inflation Rebound (Publication Centre)

By any yardstick, U.K. productivity growth has been terrible in recent years. Output per hour exceeded its pre-recession peak only in the second quarter of 2015, and it has grown at an average annual rate of just 0.6% this decade. U.S. productivity growth has been equally dismal since 2010. But the U.K.'s performance is more worrying, because the productivity slump during the recession suggested scope for a period of catch-up. In the U.S., by contrast, productivity surged during the recession as firms cut headcount sharply.

24 October. 2016 Tax Receipt Shortfall Casts Doubt on Economy's Resilience (Publication Centre)

Progress in reducing the budget deficit has ground to a virtual halt, despite the ongoing fiscal consolidation. Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks--PSNB ex.--was £10.6B in September, exceeding the £9.3B borrowed in the same month last year.

5 December 2017 The PMI Signals Construction has Stabilised, but Won't Recover Soon (Publication Centre)

November's Markit/CIPS construction report brings hope that the sector no longer is contracting. The PMI increased to a five-month high of 53.1 in November from 50.8 in October, exceeding the 52-mark that in practice has separated expansion from contraction.

5 July 2017 The Consumer Slowdown will Ripple out to the Services Sector Soon (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in quarter-on-quarter growth in households' real spending to 0.4% in Q1--just half 2016's average rate--was driven entirely by a 0.1% fall in purchases of goods. Households' spending on services, by contrast, continued to grow briskly. Indeed, the 0.8% quarter-on-quarter rise in households' real spending on services exceeded 2016's average 0.5% rate.

5 May 2017 Surveys Signal a Solid Start to Q2, but "Hard" Data Remain Weak (Publication Centre)

Activity surveys picked up across the board in April, offering hope that the slowdown in GDP growth--to just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q1-- will be just a blip. The headline indicators of surveys from the CBI, European Commission, Lloyds Bank and Markit all improved in April and all exceeded their 2004-to-2016 averages.

4 September 2017 Will the Economy be Hit by a Snap Back in Households' Saving Ratio? (Publication Centre)

Households' decision to reduce their saving rate sharply was the main reason why economic growth exceeded forecasters' expectations in the aftermath of the Brexit vote.

23 Mar. 2016 Rousseff's Government is on the Ropes - Fiscal Progress Will Slow (Publication Centre)

Political turmoil in Brazil continues to undermine President Dilma Rousseff's leverage over the economy. On Friday, the Lower House of Congress voted to start impeachment proceeding against Ms. Rousseff. She has until early April to present her defense against charges that she doctored government accounts and used graft proceeds to fund the 2014 electoral campaign.

14 December 2018 Remainer Tory Rebels now have Greater Leverage (Publication Centre)

After the drama of the last few days, Brexit developments now are set to proceed at a slower pace.

13 September 2016 Sterling is Already Stoking Price Pressures, More to Come (Publication Centre)

August's consumer price figures, released today, likely will show that households' spending power is being increasingly eroded by rising inflation. We think CPI inflation picked up to 0.8%, from 0.6% in July, exceeding the consensus, 0.7%, for the third consecutive month.

14 June 2017 The Squeeze on Real Wages is Intensifying Rapidly (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation increased to 2.9% in May, from 2.7% in April, exceeding the no-change expectation of both the consensus and the MPC, as well as our own 2.8% forecast.

14 June. Higher Inflation to Highlight Broad Recovery in Cost Pressures (Publication Centre)

We expect today's consumer prices figures to show that CPI inflation picked up to 0.5% in May, from 0.3% in April, exceeding the 0.4% rate anticipated by both the consensus and the MPC, in last month's Inflation Report. We expect the increase to be driven by a jump in the core rate to 1.4%, from 1.2% in April.

15 February 2017 Upward Inflation Trend Still Strong, Despite January's Modest Rise (Publication Centre)

January's CPI inflation of 1.8%, up from 1.6% in December, was one-tenth lower than anticipated by the consensus, the Bank of England and ourselves. The undershoot, however, was entirely due to a pull-back in clothing inflation which is unlikely to be sustained. Price pressures across the rest of the economy have continued to intensify, suggesting that CPI inflation still is on course greatly to exceed the 2% target later this year.

15 August. 2016 July Inflation Figures to Show Adverse Brexit Impact (Publication Centre)

July's consumer price figures, due tomorrow, likely will bring early evidence that sterling's Brexit-driven depreciation already is pushing up inflation. We think that CPI inflation picked up to 0.6% in July from 0.5% in June, exceeding the consensus forecast for an unchanged reading. Experience of past depreciations suggests that July's figures likely won't be the last time the consensus is surprised by the speed of the rise in inflation.

13 January 2017 The MPC Is In For a Nasty Inflation Shock This Year (Publication Centre)

Over the last decade, the MPC has underestimated the extent and duration of departures of CPI inflation from the 2% target. Inflation exceeded the MPC's expectations in the early 2010s, as policymakers underestimated the impact of sterling's prior depreciation and overestimated the role that slack would play in stifling price pressures. Inflation also undershot the MPC's forecast between 2014 and 2016, when sterling's appreciation reduced import prices.

12 August. 2016 Have Gilt Yields Finally Reached Their Floor? (Publication Centre)

Gilt yields have collapsed this year, aided by a surge in safe-haven demand, the much lower outlook for overnight interest rates and the resumption of QE. Bond yields also have fallen globally, but the drop in the ten-year gilt yields to a record low of 0.53%, from nearly 2% at the beginning of 2016, has greatly exceeded the declines elsewhere, as our first chart shows.

10 Feb. 2016 Surging Inflation in the Andes Poses Policy Dilemmas (Publication Centre)

Colombia's January inflation rate easily exceeded BanRep's 2-to-4% target range yet again, jumping to 7.5% from 6.8% in October, the fastest increase since December 2008. This is putting pressure on BanRep to continue tightening, following 150bp rate hikes, to 6.0%, since September.

10 Dec. 2015 Lower Oil Prices are Only Modestly Positive for the U.K. Economy (Publication Centre)

The U.K. is one of the smallest winners among advanced economies from the precipitous decline in oil prices. British oil production still fulfils about 55% of the U.K.'s demand, even though it has declined by two-thirds since its 1999 peak. Oil consumption therefore exceeds production by a much smaller margin in the U.K. than in most other European countries. As a result, the boost to the U.K. economy from the $10 decline in oil prices over the last month isn't much to write home about.

11 April 2017 Markets Still aren't Fully Prepared for a Further Rise in RPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

Investors have been caught out by the speed of the recent rise in RPI inflation and have revised up their expectations. Even so, inflation swaps imply that markets expect RPI inflation to be 3.6% in one year's time, not much above the latest print, 3.2% in February. We still think RPI inflation will exceed markets' expectations.

11 Feb. 2016 March is Still in Play, but Only if Data and Markets Cooperate (Publication Centre)

If Fed Chair Yellen's objective yesterday was to deliver studied ambiguity in her Testimony--and we believe it was--she succeeded. She offered plenty to both sides of the rate debate. For the hawks, she noted that unemployment is now "...in line with the median of FOMC participants' most recent estimates of its longer-run normal level", and that inflation is still expected to return to the 2% target, "...once oil and import prices stop falling".

11 February 2019 Is the Accelerating Fall in Bank Reserves a Real Problem for the Fed? (Publication Centre)

The rundown of the Fed's balance sheet has proceeded in line with the plans laid out b ack in June 2017.

10 April 2017 Inflation's Rise Likely Arrested in March by this Year's Later Easter (Publication Centre)

March's consumer price figures, released tomorrow, look set to show that inflation's ascent was kept in check by the later Easter this year compared to last. Nonetheless, CPI inflation will take big upward strides over the coming months, and it likely will exceed 3% by the summer.

17 Nov. 2015 Does the Underperformance of the FTSE Portend a Weaker Economy? (Publication Centre)

The FTSE 100 has fallen by 4% over the last two weeks, exceeding the 1-to-3% declines in the main US, European and Japanese markets. The FTSE's latest drop builds on an underperformance which began in early 2014. The index has fallen by 10% since then--compared to rises of between 10% and 20% in the main overseas benchmarks--and has dropped by nearly 15% since its April 2015 peak. We doubt, however, that the collapse in U.K. equity prices signals impending economic misery. The economy is likely to struggle next year, but this will have little to do with the stock market's travails.

20 September 2018 August's Jump in CPI Inflation is More Noise than Signal (Publication Centre)

August's consumer price figures caught everyone by surprise. CPI inflation increased to 2.7%, from 2.4% in July, greatly exceeding the consensus and the MPC's forecast, 2.4%.

18 November. 2016 Price Rises Will Soon Curtail the Surge in Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

October's colossal 1.9% month-to-month jump in retail sales volumes greatly exceeded the 0.5% consensus and even our own top-of-the- range 1.0% forecast.

21 December 2016 Big Current Account Deficit Likely to Cloud Resilient GDP Picture (Publication Centre)

The third quarter national accounts, due to be published on Friday, likely will not alter the picture of economic resilience immediately after the referendum. The latest estimate of GDP growth often is revised in this release, but revisions have not exceeded 0.1 percentage points in either direction in the last four years, as our first chart shows.

21 July 2017 BoJ to Allow Foreign Tightening to Ease Japanese Policy, for now (Publication Centre)

Governor Kuroda commented yesterday that he doesn't think Japan needs more easing at this stage. If he means that the BoJ does not have to change policy to provide more easing then we think he is right, on two and a half counts. First, Japan is likely to receive a boost under its current framework as external rate rises exceed expectations, driving down the yen.

21 September 2017 August's Jump in Retail Sales Just Looks Like a Flash in the Pan (Publication Centre)

Retail sales increased by 1.0% month-to-month in August, exceeding our no-change forecast and spurring markets to price-in a 65% chance that the MPC will raise interest rates at its next meeting on November 2, up from 60% beforehand.

21 September 2016 Still Little Scope for Optimism on Business Investment (Publication Centre)

If the economy is to enter recession, falling business investment probably will have to be the main driver. Growth in consumer spending likely will slow sharply over the next year as firms become more cautious about hiring new workers and inflation begins to exceed wage growth again.

20 July 2017 Retail Sales Likely Jumped in June, but the Trend Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

Surveys suggest that today's retail sales figures will show that sales volumes increased by around 1% month-to-month in June, significantly exceeding the consensus, 0.4%. But the pickup in June likely will be just a blip; the further intensification of the squeeze on real wages and a tightening of unsecured lending standards will keep retail sales on a flat path in the second half of 2017.

20 March 2017 February's Above-Target Inflation Rate won't be the Last (Publication Centre)

February's consumer price report, released tomorrow, likely will show that CPI inflation has breached the MPC's 2% target for the first time since November 2013. Indeed, we think the headline rate jumped to 2.2%, from 1.8% in January, exceeding the 2.1% rate expected by the MPC and the consensus.

20 Aug 2019 Third Quarter Growth Looks OK on the Surface Details Less Good (Publication Centre)

Halfway through the third quarter, we have no objection to the idea that GDP growth likely will exceed 2% for the third straight quarter.

19 December 2017 Andean Economies Closely Related by Copper, but Divided by Politics (Publication Centre)

Sebastián Piñera returns to the Presidential Palacio de la Moneda, succeeding Michelle Bachelet as president of Chile, as in 2010.

2 April 2019 Brace for a Pull-Back in Manufacturing Output in Q2 (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, British manufacturers are weathering the global slowdown well. The Markit/CIPS PMI jumped to 55.1 in March, from 52.1 in February, and now comfortably exceeds those for the Eurozone, U.S. and Japan.

19 May 2017 Don't Mistake April's Retail Sales Surge for a Turning Point (Publication Centre)

Retail sales volumes jumped by 2.3% month-to-month in April, exceeding the 1.0% consensus and even our 2.0% forecast. It would be a big mistake to conclude, however, that households' spending will propel the economy forward this year like it did between 2013 and 2016.

2 August 2017 An Advance Preview of July's Consumer Price Figures (Publication Centre)

July's consumer price figures--published on August 15th, while we are on vacation--look set to show that June's drop in CPI inflation was just a blip. We think that CPI inflation ticked up to 2.7% in July, from 2.6% in June, on track to slightly exceed 3% toward the end of this year.

20 Apr. 2016 Rousseff Loses Key Impeachment Vote - Presidency on the Brink (Publication Centre)

Brazil's lower house of Congress on Sunday voted to start impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff, who is accused of tampering with the public accounts to help secure her re-election in 2014. Ms. Rousseff's opponents obtained 367 votes, exceeding the two-thirds majority, needed to send the motion to the Senate.

Financial Times - US housing starts rise for second month in April (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. housing starts

Bloomberg - Pantheon Chief Economist Worries Wages May Pressure Fed (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the impact of improving wage growth and inflation on the Federal Reserve ahead of today's February jobs report. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

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