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27 matches for " Boris Johnson":

14 June 2019 Johnson is a Shoo-In For the Final Round, but He'll Face a Soft Brexiteer (Publication Centre)

After the first round of voting by Tory MPs, Boris Johnson remains the clear favourite to be the next Prime Minister.

26 July 2019 A Guide to Gauging How Much No- Deal Brexit Risk is Priced-in (Publication Centre)

In our view, the chances of a no-deal Brexit on October 31 have not surged just because Boris Johnson has become Prime Minister and is gesticulating wildly at the Despatch Box.

23 Sept 2019 Could a Tweaked Brexit Deal get Through the Commons? (Publication Centre)

Sterling rallied to $1.25 last week--its highest level against the dollar since Boris Johnson became PM in mid-July--amid growing speculation that a Brexit deal still was possible in the next couple of weeks, enabling the U.K. to leave the E.U. on October 31.

4 July 2019 Investors are Seeing Carney's Comments Through a Dovish Prism (Publication Centre)

Investors have concluded from June's Markit/CIPS PMIs and Governor Carney's speech on Tuesday that the chance of the MPC cutting Bank Rate before the end of this year now is about 50%, rising to 55% by the time of Mr. Carney's final meeting at the end of January.

4 May 2017 How to Interpret the Results from Today's Local Elections (Publication Centre)

Today's local elections are more important than usual, because they will enable investors to assess if the Conservatives really are on track for a landslide victory in the general election, as suggested by the opinion polls and priced-in by the forex market.

30 July 2019 No Pre-Brexit Panic Signalled by Monetary Indicators (Publication Centre)

The alarming pace at which the Government is marching towards the Brexit cliff edge still shows no sign of instilling panic among households or firms.

4 Sept 2019 The Conservatives' Poll Lead Does Not Have Strong Foundations (Publication Centre)

A general election this year now looks inevitable, after the defection of Phillip Lee MP from the Tories to the Lib Dems, and the PM's threat to seek an election if MPs take control of the Order Paper on Tuesday evening.

31 July 2019 Rising Confidence Points to Solid Household Spending Ahead of Brexit (Publication Centre)

The further depreciation of sterling yesterday, to its lowest level against the dollar and euro since March 2017 and September 2017, respectively, signified deepening pessimism among investors about the chances of a no-deal Brexit.

6 June. Political Instability to Loom Large, if Referendum is Close Either Way (Publication Centre)

Would the U.K. inevitably leave the E.U. if a majority of the electorate voted for Brexit on June 23? Repeatedly, the Government has quelled speculation that it will call for a second referendum on an improved package of E.U. reforms after a Brexit vote on June 23. But unsuccessful referendums have been followed up with second plebiscites elsewhere in Europe.

9 Sept 2019 Brexiteers Lost the Brexit Day Battle, But Will They Win the Election War (Publication Centre)

After last week's drama, the pace of political developments should slow down this week.

7 Oct 2019 Business Investment is not Destined to Slump, Despite Brexit Risks (Publication Centre)

Make no mistake, business investment has been depressed by Brexit uncertainty over the last year.

6 Sept 2019 Sterling Will Struggle to Recover Further this Side of the Election (Publication Centre)

Sterling recovered to $1.23 yesterday, its highest level since late July, in response to the sharp decline in the risk of a no -deal Brexit at the end of October, triggered by MPs' actions.

3 Oct 2019 Regional Polling Data Point to a Tory Majority, But The Race Will Narrow (Publication Centre)

We continue to expect a general election to be held in December.

5 July 2019 Sterling has no Parachute in the Event of a No-deal Brexit (Publication Centre)

Just how low would sterling go in the event of a no-deal Brexit? When Reuters last surveyed economists at the start of June, the consensus was that sterling would settle between $1.15 and $1.20 and fall to parity against the euro within one month after an acrimonious separation on October 31.

24 June. Initial Thoughts on the U.K.'s Shock Brexit Vote (Publication Centre)

Britain's shock vote to leave the E.U. has unleashed a wave of economic and political uncertainty that likely will drive the U.K. into recession.

2 Sept 2019 Anti No-Deal MPs Likely will Prevail, Though the Timing is Tight this Week (Publication Centre)

We still think it is a question of when--not if-- MPs will be successful in taking a no -deal Brexit off the table.

2 May 2017 Can Sterling's Recovery Gather More Momentum? (Publication Centre)

Sterling continued to recover last week, hitting its highest level against the dollar since October, despite a series of data releases indicating that the economy is losing momentum. Indeed, sterling was unscathed by the news on Friday that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth slowed to just 0.3% in Q1, from 0.7% in Q4.

13 June 2019 Fiscal Pledges of PM Contenders Highlight Upside Risks to the Outlook (Publication Centre)

We often hear that the large gap between the slowing rising path for interest rates anticipated by the MPC and the flat profile expected by markets is justified because markets have to price-in all of the downside risks to the economic outlook posed by Brexit.

13 February 2019 A Weaker Pound Wouldn't be a Silver Lining in a No-deal Dystopia (Publication Centre)

Brexiteers have downplayed the economic consequences of a no-deal exit by arguing that a further depreciation of sterling would cushion the blow.

20 August 2018 Don't Believe the Scare Stories About Rising No-Deal Brexit Risk (Publication Centre)

Investors have become more concerned about a no-deal Brexit.

21 June 2019 No Sign the BoE is About to Follow Others With Fresh Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The MPC's unanimous decision to keep Bank Rate at 0.75% and the minutes of its meeting left little impression on markets, which still see a higher chance of the MPC cutting Bank Rate within the next 12 months than raising it.

24 June 2019 The New PM Soon will be Asking for a Further Brexit Extension (Publication Centre)

British politics remains a complete mess, with many outcomes, ranging from no-deal Brexit to revoking Article 50, possible in the second half of this year.

23 July 2019 How Long Until the Next General Election? (Publication Centre)

The spectre of a general election relentlessly will haunt the new Prime Minister--due to be announced as Tory party leader today before moving into Downing Street tomorrow--but our base case remains that a poll won't happen this year.

22 Aug 2019 Brexit from the Perspective of the EU It's Complicated and Risky (Publication Centre)

The stakes in the Brexit saga have been raised significantly over the summer.

21 May 2019 The MPC Will Shun its Strategy of Waiting for Brexit Uncertainty to Fade (Publication Centre)

The chances of the first phase of the Brexit saga concluding soon declined sharply last week.

24 Sept 2019 Is the Tories' True Poll Lead Massive or Minute? (Publication Centre)

Support for the Conservatives has shown no sign of flagging in recent weeks, despite the setbacks in the Commons earlier this month and the government's failure so far to secure a revised Brexit deal.

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