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116 matches for " labour market":

13 September 2017 Labour Market Report to Show no Easing of the Real Wage Squeeze (My Publications)

Today's labour market report likely will show that employment continued to grow briskly over the summer, but that wage gains still are lagging well behind inflation.

13 September 2017 The French Labour Market is on the Up. Will Reforms Follow? (My Publications)

In theory, the headline labour market data in France should be a source of comfort and support for the new government.

26 July 2017 China's Reform Scorecard Part 1: Labour Market and Demographics (My Publications)

Over the next 18 months we expect to see interest rates break out further on the upside. Initially, we expect developed market growth to be resilient to that.

17 Feb. 2016 Don't Dwell on December's Disappointing Wage Growth (My Publications)

Today's labour market figures look set to show that wage growth has continued to slow, fuelling speculation that interest rates are going nowhere soon. But a close examination of why wage growth has weakened suggests investors will be surprised by a robust rebound later this year.

17 August. 2016 Job Vacancy Data to Give Early Steer on Recession Odds (My Publications)

Today's labour market figures will provide the first "hard data" showing how the economy has fared since the referendum. The headline employment and unemployment numbers will refer to the three months ending June, but data for July will be published on the number of people claiming unemployment benefit and the level of job vacancies.

17 June. 2016 Yet Another Hurdle: Brexit Fears Overshadow a Dovish Fed (My Publications)

This week's Fed meeting eased many LatAm investors' minds, fuelling rallies in most of the region's currencies. We think the U.S. labour market is going through a genuine soft patch but will regain momentum over the coming months, prompting policymakers to hike rates in September.

16 March 2017 Slowing Wage Gains Support the MPC's Loose Policy Stance (My Publications)

Yesterday's labour market data significantly bolster the consensus view on the MPC that interest rates do not need to rise this year to counter the imminent burst of inflation. Granted, the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in January--its lowest rate since August 1975--from 4.8% in December, defying the consensus forecast for no-change.

18 May 2017 Will Strong Employment Growth Be Sustained? (My Publications)

Yesterday's labour market figures revealed that employment growth has picked up this year, despite the shadow cast over the medium-term economic outlook by Brexit. The 122K, or 0.4%, quarter-on-quarter rise in employment in Q1 was the biggest since Q2 2016.

19 January 2017 Wage Growth Won't Force The MPC to Hike Rates This Year (My Publications)

The most striking aspect of yesterday's labour market report was the pick-up in the headline three month average year-over-year growth rate of average weekly wages, to a 14-month high of 2.8% in November, from 2.6% in October. Although still low by pre-recession standards, wage growth now is close to the rate that might worry the MPC.

16 February 2017 Slowdown in Wage Growth Further Reduces 2017 Rate Hike Chances (My Publications)

Yesterday's labour market data delivered a further blow to hopes that consumers' spending will retain enough momentum for the MPC to press ahead and raise interest rates this year. The most striking development is the decline in year-over-year growth in average weekly wages to just 1.9% in December, from 2.9% in November.

26 August. 2016 Brazil's Market-set Prices Remain Sticky, Rate Cuts to be Postponed? (My Publications)

According to Brazil's mid-August inflation reading, which is a preview of the IPCA index, overall inflation pressures are easing. But some price stickiness remains, due to inertia and temporary shocks, despite the severity of the recession and the rapid deterioration of the labour market in recent months.

29 June. 2016 French Households are in a Good Mood, Despite Dip in Sentiment (My Publications)

French consumer sentiment dipped slightly in June, but we see no major hit from ongoing labour market disputes. The headline index slipped to 97 in June, from 98 in May; this is a decent reading given the fourpoint jump last month. The headline was constrained by a big fall in consumers' "major purchasing intentions," but this partly was mean-reversion following a surge last month.

14 June 2017 Fact-checking the ECB on Low Wages and Employment in the EZ (My Publications)

Today's employment report in the euro area should extend the run of positive labour market data. We think employment rose 1.4% year-over-year in Q1, accelerating marginally from a 1.2% increase in Q4.

13 April 2017 Slowing Labour Income Growth Highlights Consumers' Woes (My Publications)

Yesterday's labour market data showed that growth in households' income has slowed significantly in recent months. Firms are both hiring cautiously and restraining wage increases, due to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook and rising raw material and non-wage labour costs. Consumers' spending, therefore, will support GDP growth to a far smaller extent this year than last.

14 December 2016 Brazil Consumption Under Strain in Early Q4, but it Will Improve, Soon (My Publications)

Brazil's consumer recession seems never-ending. Retail sales fell 0.8% month-to-month in October, pushing the headline year-over-year rate down to -8.2% in October, from -5.7% in September. Recent financial market volatility, credit restrictions and the ongoing deterioration of the labour market continue to hurt consumers.

11 July 2017 Unemployment Likely Fell Again in May, Despite the Slowing Economy (My Publications)

May's labour market figures, released on Wednesday, likely will have something for both the doves and the hawks on the MPC , who have been wrangling over whether to reverse last year's rate cut.

14 December 2016 Labour Data Set to Show a Clearer Deteriorating Trend (My Publications)

Today's labour market figures likely will bring further signs that firms are recruiting more cautiously and limiting pay awards, due to still-elevated economic uncertainty.

29 Apr. 2016 German Labour Market are Solid, but Likely Will Disappoint Soon (My Publications)

German labour market data continue to break records on a monthly basis. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.2% in A pril, with jobless claims falling 16,000, following a revised 2,000 fall in March. March employment rose 1.2% year-over-year, down slightly from 1.3% in February, but the total number of people in jobs rose to a new high of 43.4 million.

9 Nov. 2015 The Unemployment Rate Is the Key Measure of Labour Market Slack (My Publications)

The Monetary Policy Committee continues to assert that it can leave interest rates at rock-bottom levels, even though the unemployment rate has returned to its pre-recession level, because it understates the extent of slack in the labour market. If that hypothesis were correct, however, the relationship between the unemployment rate and wage growth would have weakened. But this clearly has not happened, as our first chart shows.

18 August. 2016 Headline Labour Market Numbers Flatter to Deceive (My Publications)

It's easy to claim from yesterday's labour market data that the economy is weathering the uncertainty caused by the E.U. referendum. Employment rose by 172K, or 0.5%, between Q1 and Q2, and the claimant count fell by 7K month-to-month in July. These numbers, however, flatter to deceive.

14 September 2016 Labour Market Report Likely to be Soft all Round (My Publications)

Today's figures likely will bring the first real signs that the Brexit vote has had an adverse impact on the labour market. The employment balances of the key private-sector surveys weakened sharply in July, and recovered only partially in August. In addition, the three-month average level of job vacancies fell by 7K between April and July.

27 June 2017 Japanese Inflation to Hold up as Food Prices Counterbalance Energy (My Publications)

Japanese services price inflation edged down in May as the twin upside drivers of commodity price inflation and yen weakness began to lose steam. We expect wage costs to begin edging up in the second half but this will provide only a partial counterbalance.

23 January 2017 Chile's Central Bank Cuts Rates, Leaving the Door Open for More (My Publications)

Chile's central bank cut the country's main interest rate by 25bp to 3.25% last Thursday. The easing was expected, as the board adopted a dovish bias last month, after keeping a neutral stance for most of 2016. Last week's move, coupled with the tone of the communiqué, suggests that further easing is coming, as growth continues to disappoint and inflation pressures are easing.

22 September 2017 Angela Merkel will stay as Chancellor, but building a coalition will be tricky (My Publications)

Germans head to the polls on Sunday to elect representatives for the national parliament. The media has tried to keep investors on alert for a surprise, but polls indicate clearly that Angela Merkel will continue as Chancellor.

28 Apr. Don't Pin Your Hopes on a Post-Referendum Rebound (My Publications)

The slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 reflects more than just Brexit risk. The intensifying fiscal squeeze, the uncompetitiveness of U.K. exports, and the lack of spare labour suggest that the U.K.'s recovery now is stuck in a lower gear.

24 Feb. 2016 Downside Surprise from Fourth- Quarter GDP Likely (My Publications)

The second estimate of Q4 GDP, published on Thursday, probably will show that the economy slowed more abruptly last year than previously thought and that it has become very dependent on consumers for momentum.

27 February 2017 Banxico Faces Real Pressures, but bad News is Priced-In to the MXN (My Publications)

Mexico's policymakers are battling two opposing forces. First, inflation pressures are rising, on the back of the one-time increase in petrol prices and the lagged effect of the MXN's sell-off in Q4. These factors are pushing short-term inflation expectations higher, even though the MXN has remained relatively stable since President Trump took office and has risen by about 6% against the USD year-to-date.

26 June 2017 Japan Surprises on the Upside as the Economy Accelerates into Q2 (My Publications)

Japanese data continue to come in strongly for the second quarter. The manufacturing PMI points to continued sturdy growth, despite the headline index dipping to 52.0 in June from 53.1 in May. The average for Q2 overall was 52.6, almost unchanged from Q1's 52.8, signalling that manufacturing output growth has maintained its recent rate of growth.

26 April 2017 Weaker Growth in Tax Receipts Adds to Slowdown Signs (My Publications)

March's public sector borrowing figures brought more signs that the economy has lost considerable momentum this year. Borrowing, on the PSNB excluding public sector banks measure, came in at £5.1B in March, up slightly from £4.3B in March 2016.

27 Feb. 2015 M1 growth is sending a very bullish on the Eurozone economy (My Publications)

Economic data in the Eurozone are sending an increasingly upbeat message on the economy. Yesterday saw a barrage of numbers, but the most startling of them was the continued acceleration in the money supply.

21 November. 2016 The Inflation Threat from Wages is Rising (My Publications)

Last week, the Atlanta Fed updated its median hourly earnings series with new October data, showing wage growth accelerating to an eight-year high of 3.9%. That's a full percentage point higher than the increase in this measure of wages in the year to October 2015, and it follows a spring and summer during which wage growth appeared to be topping-out at just under 3½%.

20 February 2017 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Q4, but it Will Rebound, Soon (My Publications)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively soft footing. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 0.3% month-to-month, though the year-over-year rate rose to -1.8%, from -2.2% in November.

20 June 2017 EZ Construction Upturn Signals Upside Risks to GDP Growth (My Publications)

We continue to see signs of a strengthening upturn in Eurozone construction. Output in construction rose 0.3% month-to-month in April, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 3.2%, from an upwardly revised 3.8% in March.

2 March 2017 Is it all over for Mr. Fillon? (My Publications)

The French presidential election campaign remains chaotic. Republican candidate François Fillon had to defend himself again yesterday as investigations into his potential misuse of public funds deepened. Mr. Fillon and his wife have now been summoned to court to explain themselves. Markets expected Mr. Fillon to resign as the Republican front-runner. Instead, he used his unscheduled media address to defiantly declare that he is staying in the race.

19 Apr. 2016 Eurozone Productivity Growth has Slowed Alarmingly in this Cycle (My Publications)

The Eurozone has a productivity problem. Between 1997 and 2007, labour productivity rose an average 1.2% year-over-year, but this rate has slowed to a crawl--a mere 0.5%--since the crisis. These data tell an important story about the peaks in EZ GDP growth over the business cycle. Before the financial crisis in 2008, cyclical peaks in Eurozone GDP growth were as high as 3%-to-4% year-over-year.

18 November. 2016 Price Rises Will Soon Curtail the Surge in Retail Sales (My Publications)

October's colossal 1.9% month-to-month jump in retail sales volumes greatly exceeded the 0.5% consensus and even our own top-of-the- range 1.0% forecast.

20 June 2017 Brazil's Recovery Continues, but Politics have Harmed its Prospects (My Publications)

Economic data released in recent weeks underscore that Brazil emerged from recession in Q1, but the recovery is fragile and further rate cuts are badly needed. The political crisis has damaged the reform agenda, and political uncertainty lingers.

20 October. 2016 Rising Prices Will Arrest the Strong Trend in Retail Sales Next Year (My Publications)

It's hard to have much conviction in any forecast for September retail sales, as the relationship between the official data and the surveys has weakened considerably.

22 June. 2016 No Real Change from Yellen, but Acknowledgement of Other Views (My Publications)

Dr. Yellen's Testimony yesterday was largely a cut-and-paste job from the FOMC statement last week and her remarks at the press conference. The Fed's core views have not changed since last week, unsurprisingly, and policymakers still expect to raise rates gradually as inflation returns to the target, but will be guided by the incoming data.

29 September 2016 Consumers' Spending Growth in Germany is Slowing, Modestly (My Publications)

Survey data in the Eurozone were mixed yesterday. In Germany, the advance GfK consumer sentiment index slipped to 10.0 in October, from 10.2 in September, marginally below consensus forecasts. The details, reported for September, also were soft.

21 March 2017 Will Investors Shorting Sterling Remain Frustrated? (My Publications)

Speculators who have sold sterling over the last six months have been frustrated. Investors have been overwhelmingly net short sterling, but the pound has hovered between $1.20 and $1.25, as our first chart shows. Undeterred, investors increased their net short positions last week to 107K contracts-- the most since records began in 1992--from 81K a week earlier.

20 September 2017 Expect a December Hike (My Publications)

The FOMC won't raise rates today, but we expect that the announcement of the start of balance sheet reduction will not be interrupted by Harvey and Irma.

22 May 2017 The Housing Market is Weakening, but Lasting Price Falls aren't Likely (My Publications)

Even the most bullish estate agent in Britain would struggle to put a positive spin on the latest housing market news. The latest levels of the official, Nationwide, and Halifax measures of house prices all are below their peaks.

30 May 2017 Why Don't Markets Take the Fed's Interest Rate Forecasts Seriously? (My Publications)

Markets expect the Fed will fail to follow through on its current intention to raise rates twice more this year and three times next year. Part of this skepticism reflects recent experience.

6 February 2017 EZ Households are in Good Shape, But Spending Will Slow in 2017 (My Publications)

Consumers' spending in the euro area weakened at the end of Q4, but we think households will continue to boost GDP growth in the first quarter. Data on Friday showed that retail sales fell 0.3% month-to-month in December, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.1%, from a revised 2.8% in November.

5 Apr. 2016 The Great Front-Running in EZ Corporate Bonds Has Begun (My Publications)

Corporate bonds will not be included in the ECB's monthly QE purchases until the end of Q2, but markets are already preparing. The sale of non-financial corporate debt jumped to €49.4B in March, from about €25B in February, within touching distance of the record set in Q1 last year.

4 November. 2016 Inflation Concerns Now Dominate on the MPC (My Publications)

The MPC surprised markets and ourselves yesterday by the extent to which it abandoned its previous stance and is now emphasising inflation over growth risks.

4 May 2017 Strong Q1 GDP Data in the EZ, but the Annualised Trend is not 2% (My Publications)

The Eurozone enjoyed a strong start to 2017. Yesterday's advance data showed that real GDP rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, a similar pace to Q4, which was revised up by 0.1 percentage points. The year-over-year rate dipped to 1.7%, from an upwardly revised 1.8% in Q4.

6 February 2017 Mexico's Sentiment Depressed by Trump Fears and "Gasolinazo" (My Publications)

Mexico's latest hard data suggest things might not be as bad as we feared. Retail sales and manufacturing output were relatively strong at the end of last year, the Q4 preliminary GDP report was mostly upbeat, and the labor market was firing on all cylinders.

9 May 2017 Two Answers and Many Questions, as President Macron Settles in (My Publications)

Mr. Macron's victory in France answers two questions for markets, at least in the short run. Firstly, France will stay in the Eurozone, and Mr. Macron will not call a referendum on EU membership. Mr. Macron has come to power with a mandate to strengthen economic integration and co-operation between Eurozone economies.

7 September 2017 Japanese Regular Wages Breaking out of a 20-year Stagnation? (My Publications)

Japanese labour cash earnings data threw analysts another curveball in July, falling 0.3% year-over-year. At the same time, June earnings are now said to have risen by 0.4%, compared with a fall of 0.4% in the initial print.

6 June 2017 The Spanish Economy is Punching Above its Weight. Can it Last? (My Publications)

Yesterday's final May PMI data in the Eurozone confirmed the strength of the cyclical upturn. The composite PMI was unchanged at 56.8, in line with the initial estimate.

6 January 2017 Brazil's Industrial Recovery is Underway, but it is Painfully Slow (My Publications)

Yesterday's Brazilian industrial production data continue to tell a story of a slow business cycle upturn. Output rose 0.2% month-to-month in November, after a downwardly revised 1.2% plunge in October. The year-over-year rate, though, jumped to -1.1%, from -7.3% in October. The underlying trend is now on the mend, following weakness in Q3 and early Q4. Output rose in November three of the four major categories and in 13 of the 24 sectors.

8 August 2017 Will Mexico's Economy Resilience Continue in the Second Half? (My Publications)

The Mexican economy maintained its relatively strong momentum in Q2. The first estimate of Q2 GDP, released last week, confirmed that growth was resilient during the first half of this year, despite the confidence hit caused by domestic and external headwinds.

4 July 2017 BanRep Speeds up Rate Cuts, Expect Further Stimulus this Month (My Publications)

BanRep accelerated the pace of easing last Friday, cutting Colombia's key interest rate by a bold 50 basis points, to 5.75%. Economic activity has been under severe pressure in recent months. The economy expanded by only 1.1% year-over-year in Q1, following an already weak 1.6% in Q4.

31 March 2017 The Economic Outlook is Improving in Brazil, and even in Mexico (My Publications)

Downside risks to our growth forecast for Brazil and Mexico for this year have diminished this week. In Brazil, concerns over the potential impact of the meat scandal on the economy have diminished. Some key global customers, including Hong Kong, have in recent days eased restrictions on imports from Brazil, and other counties have ended their bans.

30 January 2017 Will the Inflation Report Support Markets' 2017 Rate Hike View? (My Publications)

Markets' expectations for official interest rates have shifted up over the last fortnight, and the consensus view now is that the MPC will hike rates before the end of this year. As our first chart shows, the implied probability of interest rates breaching 0.25% in December 2017 now slightly exceeds 50%.

30 Jan. 2015 Leading indicators are sending a clear signal of higher GDP growth ahead (My Publications)

Money supply data in the euro area are sending an increasingly upbeat signal on the economy. The increase in narrow money growth is the key variable here, now pointing to a noticeable acceleration in GDP growth later this year. Allowing for the usual lags between upturns in M1 and the economy, we should start to see this in the second and third quarter.

3 July 2017 China's Industrial Complex still Strong in Q2, H2 in Draghi's Hands (My Publications)

We expect China's quarterly real GDP growth in the second quarter to edge down from Q1, but only because Q1 growth was unsustainable. The official data shows real GDP growth at 1.3% quarter-onquarter in Q1.

3 August. 2016 The MPC Won't Be Afraid to Disappoint Markets' Stimulus Hopes (My Publications)

Many investors are betting that the MPC will announce a bold package of easing measures on Thursday. For a start, overnight index swap markets are pricing-in a 98% probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate to 0.25%, and a 30% chance that interest rates will fall to, or below, zero by the end of the year.

6 March 2017 Can Gilt Yields Remain Low While the World Reflates? (My Publications)

If 2017 really is the year of "reflation", somebody forgot to tell the gilt market. Among the G7 group, 10-year yields have fallen only in the U.K. during the last three months, as our first chart shows.

30 September 2016 Today's Eurozone Inflation Data Likely Will Surprise to the Upside (My Publications)

Today's advance CPI data will show that EZ inflation pressures rose further at the end of Q3. The headline number likely will exceed the consensus. We think inflation rose to 0.5% year-over-year in September from 0.2% in August, slightly higher than the 0.4% consensus.

18 August 2017 Higher Core Inflation in the Eurozone Should be a No Brainer (My Publications)

Inflation data are known to defy economists' forecasts, but it should in principle b e straightforward to predict the cyclical path of EZ core inflation. It is the longest lagging indicator in the economy, and leading indicators currently signal that core inflation pressures are rising.

31 January 2017 Focus on Strong EZ Q4 GDP Data On a Busy Day in the Eurozone (My Publications)

Today will be an incredibly busy day for EZ investors with no fewer than eight major economic reports. Overall, we think the data will tell a story of a stable business cycle upturn and rising inflation. Markets will focus on advance Q4 GDP data in France and in the euro area as a whole. Our mo dels, and survey data, indicate that the EZ economy strengthened at the end of 2016, and we expect the headline data to beat the consensus.

31 August. 2016 German Core Inflation Slipped in August, but Should Rebound Soon (My Publications)

The upward trend in German inflation stalled temporarily in August, with an unchanged 0.4% year-over-year reading in August. A dip in core inflation likely offset a continued increase in energy price inflation. The detailed final report next month will give the full story, but state data suggest that the core rate was depressed by a dip in price increases of household appliances, restaurant services, as well as "other goods and services."

3 April 2017 Eurozone Consumers Likely had a Slow Start to 2017 (My Publications)

We fear that private spending in the EZ slowed in Q1, despite rocketing survey data. This fits our view that household consumption will slow in 2017 after sustained above-trend growth in the beginning of this business cycle.

15 June 2017 China's Q2 Growth to Remain Sturdy but Expect a Slower H2 (My Publications)

China's industrial production grew at an annualised 7.2% rate by volume in Q1, according to our estimates, up from an average 5.9% rate in the six quar ters through mid-2016.

11 January 2017 Black Friday Drove Sales Higher in Brazil, is a Hangover Coming? (My Publications)

Brazil's consumer recession finally eased in November. Retail sales jumped 2.0% month-to- month, following an upwardly-revised 0.3% drop in October, and the year-over-year rate rose to -3.5% from -8.1%. November's astonishing performance probably reflects seasonal adjustment problems related to Black Friday discounting. Sales have climbed in the last four Novembers, suggesting that consumers' pre-Christmas spending patterns have shifted permanently.

11 August 2017 Brazil's Inflation Rate is Falling, Mexico's Will Soon Follow (My Publications)

Inflation pressures in Brazil are now well- contained, with the headline rate falling to a decade low in July. We think inflation is now close to bottoming out, but the current benign rate strengthens our base case forecast for a 100bp rate cut at the next policy meeting, in September.

11 September 2017 The German Trade Surplus is Falling, but Real Wages are Rising (My Publications)

The seasonally adjusted trade surplus in Germany slipped to €19.6B in July, from €21.2B in June, its lowest since April, and we are confident that it has peaked for this cycle.

12 July 2017 Wage Growth Likely will Remain too "Anaemic" for the Governor this Year (My Publications)

Mark Carney emphasised in his Mansion House speech last month that he wants wage growth to "begin to firm" from recent "anaemic" rates before voting to raise interest rates.

13 January 2017 The MPC Is In For a Nasty Inflation Shock This Year (My Publications)

Over the last decade, the MPC has underestimated the extent and duration of departures of CPI inflation from the 2% target. Inflation exceeded the MPC's expectations in the early 2010s, as policymakers underestimated the impact of sterling's prior depreciation and overestimated the role that slack would play in stifling price pressures. Inflation also undershot the MPC's forecast between 2014 and 2016, when sterling's appreciation reduced import prices.

13 February 2017 Can French Investment Maintain Momentum in 2017? (My Publications)

French manufacturing cooled at the end of 2016. Industrial production slipped 0.9% month-to-month in December, partially reversing an upwardly revised 2.4% jump in November. The main hits came from declines in oil refining and manufacturing of cars and other transport equipment.

10 January 2017 The German Economy Fired on All Cylinders in the Fourth Quarter (My Publications)

Survey data have been signalling a stronger German economy in the last few months, and hard data are beginning to confirm this story. Data yesterday showed that industrial production rose 0.4% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 2.2%, from an upwardly-revised 1.6% in October. The headline was boosted mainly by a 1.5% month-to-month jump in construction and a 0.9% rise in intermediate goods production.

10 Feb. 2016 Yellen to Sound Cautious Today, but Can't Ignore the Labor Market (My Publications)

Fed Chair Yellen today needs to strike a balance between addressing investors' concerns over the state of the stock market and the risks posed by slower growth in Asia, and the tightening domestic labor market.

1 June 2017 Dovish EZ CPI Data Take the Sting out of Next Week's ECB Meeting (My Publications)

Yesterday's advance EZ CPI report bolstered the ECB doves' case for only marginal adjustments to the language on forward guidance at next week's meeting. Inflation in the euro area fell to 1.4% in May, from 1.9% in April, constrained by almost all the key components.

1 February 2017 The EZ Economy Finished 2016 Strongly, and Q1 Outlook is Solid (My Publications)

Yesterday was a good day for headline EZ economic data. GDP growth accelerated, inflation rose and unemployment fell further. Advance Q4 data showed that real GDP in the Eurozone rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, marginally faster than the upwardly revised 0.4% in Q3. Full-year growth in 2016 slowed slightly to 1.7% from 2.0% in 2015.

1 June. 2016 Mounting Evidence of a Peak in the EZ Business Cycle This Year (My Publications)

Money supply data in the euro area disappointed yesterday. Growth in M3 fell to 4.6% year-over-year in April, from 5.0% in March, due to an accelerated fall in the pace of narrow money growth. M1 rose 9.7% year-over-year, down from 10.1% in March. It was hit by lower growth in both overnight deposits and currency in circulation.

1 March 2017 The Mexican Labor Market is Solid, But it Likely will soon Disappoint (My Publications)

Strong fundamentals have supported private consumption in Mexico recently, but we now expect a slowdown. Spending will not collapse, though, because consumer credit growth, formal employment, real wage income and remittances will continue to underpin consumption for the next three-to-six months.

17 November. 2016 October Retail Sales Likely Spurred by a Weather-related Tailwind (My Publications)

The consensus for a modest 0.5% month-to- month rise in retail sales volumes in October looks too timid; we expect today's data to show a 1% increase.

14 August 2017 A Great First Half of 2017 for the EZ Economy, But it Won't Last (My Publications)

While we were away, the advance Q2 GDP report in the Eurozone confirmed our expectations of a strong first half of the year for the economy. Real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, the same pace as in Q1, lifting the year-over-year rate to a cyclical high of 2.1%.

1 September 2017 EZ Energy Inflation will Fall Soon, but the Core Rate will Edge Higher (My Publications)

Yesterday's aggregate economic data for the euro area showed that inflation rose slightly in August. The headline rate rose to a four-month high of 1.5% in August from 1.3% in July. The rate was lifted mainly by energy inflation, rising to 4.6% from 2.2% in July, but we think the rebound will be short-lived.

15 May 2017 The Jump in Q1 German GDP Growth Likely Overstates the Trend (My Publications)

The German economy fired on all cylinders at the beginning of the year. Advance data on Friday showed that real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, accelerating from a 0.4% increase in Q4.

15 March 2017 Low Mortgage Arrears Hide Rising Risks as the Economy Slows (My Publications)

The slowdown in households' income growth since the referendum has not pushed up mortgage default rates, so far. Employment grew by just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and 0.1% in Q4, well below the 0.5% average rate seen in the three years before the referendum.

15 September 2016 August Retail Sales to Shatter Picture of Consumer Resilience (My Publications)

Today's retail sales figures for August likely will rebut the widespread view that spendthrift consumers will prevent a sharp economic slowdown. We look for a 1% month-to-month decline in retail sales volumes in August, well below the -0.4% consensus forecast.

16 May 2017 Upbeat March's Data in Brazil Confirms the Recession is Over (My Publications)

Economic data released yesterday underscored that Brazil emerged from recession in the first quarter, but further rate cuts are needed. Indeed, the monthly economic activity index--the IBC-Br--fell 0.4% monthto- month in March, though this followed a strong 1.4% gain in February.

14 December 2016 German and Eurozone Inflation is About to Shoot Higher (My Publications)

German inflation pressures were unchanged last month. The CPI index rose 0.8% year-over-year, matching the increase in October, and in line with the consensus and initial estimate. Energy deflation intensified marginally, as a result of lower prices for household utilities.

17 June. 2016 As Core Inflation Rises, Upside Wage Risks Increase Too (My Publications)

Core CPI inflation is heading for 2½% by the end of this year, and perhaps sooner. The trend in the monthly numbers is now a solid 0.2%, and that's before the weaker dollar arrests the decline in goods prices. Goods account for only a quarter of the core CPI, and right now they are the only part of the index under downward pressure. If--when--that changes, core inflation could rise quite rapidly.

15 June. 2016 Good Start to Q2 for Brazil's Retail Sales, but Details Are Less Upbeat (My Publications)

Brazil's retail sales improved at the start of the second quarter, increasing 0.5% month-to-month in April, partially reversing the 0.9% contraction in March. But the details were less upbeat than the headline.

16 June. Rising Wage Growth Points to a Rate Hike Before Year End (My Publications)

The MPC almost certainly will keep interest rates on hold today and likely won't give a strong steer on the outlook for policy in the minutes of its meeting, which are released at mid-day. On the whole, surveys of economic activity have been weak, indicating that GDP growth has slowed sharply in the second quarter.

14 September 2016 German Inflation is Heading Higher, Despite Pause in August (My Publications)

Yesterday's final CPI report in Germany confirmed the initial estimate that inflation was unchanged at 0.4% year-over-year in August. Deflation in energy prices eased further, but the headline was pegged back by a small fall in the core rate to 1.2% year-over- year, from 1.3% in July.

14 June 2017 The Squeeze on Real Wages is Intensifying Rapidly (My Publications)

CPI inflation increased to 2.9% in May, from 2.7% in April, exceeding the no-change expectation of both the consensus and the MPC, as well as our own 2.8% forecast.

15 June 2017 The MPC's Minutes Will Sound Balanced, Despite Surging Inflation (My Publications)

Today's MPC meeting and minutes are the first opportunity for Committee members to speak out in over a month, now that election "purdah" rules have lifted.

15 July. 2016 The Mexican Economy is at the Mercy of Softening Spending (My Publications)

Industrial data released this week showed that the Mexican economy stumbled during the second quarter. Private consumption, however, continues to rise, albeit at a more modest pace than in recent months. The ANTAD same store sales survey rose 5.3% year-over-year in June, up from 2.8% in May, but this is misleading.

14 June 2017 Korean Growth Probably Peaked in Q1. Construction to Slow (My Publications)

Construction accounted for the entire 1.1% quarter-to- quarter expansion of the Korean economy in Q1, but the sector is now set to slow.

31 July 2017 How Tight Can Japan's Labour Market go? (My Publications)

The jobless rate fell back to 2.8% in June after the surprise rise to 3.1% in May. This drop takes us back to where we were in April before voluntary unemployment jumped in May.

3 April 2017 Brazil's Labour Market is Still Poor, but Likely Will Stabilize Soon (My Publications)

Economic data released on Friday underscored our view that bolder rate cuts in Brazil are looming. The BCB's latest BCB's inflation report, released on Thursday, showed that policymakers now see conditions in place to increase the pace of easing "moderately" .

IG - US labour market driving the need for a rate rise from the Fed (News and Media)

Dr Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says that while US rates will rise by 0.25% on 14th December, the central bank needs to continue to move rates up or wages will spiral up out of control.

16 Mar. 2016 EZ Employment Rising Steadily, but Structural Challenges Persist (My Publications)

The Eurozone labour market is slowly healing following two severe recessions since 2008. Unemployment fell to a two-year low of 10.3% in January, and yesterday's quarterly labour force survey was upbeat. Fourth quarter employment rose 1.2% year-over-year, up from 1.1% in Q3, pushing total EZ employment to a new post-crisis high of 152 million.

16 November. 2016 Statistical Quirks Will Flatter September's Jobs Report (My Publications)

Today's labour market figures likely will show that the Brexit vote has inflicted only minimal damage on job prospects so far. The unemployment rate likely held steady at 4.9% in the three months to September, and the risk of a renewed fall in unemployment appears to be bigger than for a rise.

15 Dec. 2015 Dip in Wage Growth Hasn't Lessened the Pressure on the MPC (My Publications)

Investors kicked expectations for the first rise in official interest rates even further into the future when last month's labour market data, revealing a sharp fall in wage growth, were released. But a closer look at the official figures reveals that labour cost pressures have remained robust, cautioning against making a snap reaction if even weaker wage data are released on Wednesday.

14 Jan. 2016 Inflation Outlook Still Could Push MPC to Hike Before the Summer (My Publications)

Markets' judgement that the Monetary Policy Committee--which meets today--will wait until 2017 to raise interest rates overestimates the role that the drop in oil prices and slower GDP growth will play in its decision-making. The inflation risks emanating from the increasingly tight labour market still could motivate a tightening before the summer.

13 July 2017 Don't Extrapolate from May's Uptick in Basic Wage Growth (My Publications)

Yesterday's labour market data gave sterling a shot in the arm on t wo counts. First, the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate fell to just 4.5% in May, from 4.6% in April.

19 October. 2016 Consumers Still Under Strain in Brazil, but Rate Cuts will Help (My Publications)

Yesterday's retail sales data in Brazil surprised to the downside. Consumers are still being squeezed by high interest rates and a deteriorating labour market. Retail sales declined 0.6% month-to-month in August, leaving the year-over-year rate little changed at -5.5%.

14 September. 2016 Brazil's Soft July Retail Sales Don't Change the Improving Trend (My Publications)

The Brazilian consumer will continue to suffer from high interest rates and a deteriorating labour market this year. But sentiment data imply that the fundamentals are stabilising, at least at the margin. The headline consumer sentiment gauge, published by the FGV, has improved significantly in the past five months, and we expect another modest increase later this month

30 March 2017 Money Data Highlight the Weak Start to 2017 (My Publications)

February's money and credit figures supported recent labour market and retail sales data suggesting that consumers are increasingly financially strained. Households' broad money holdings increased by just 0.2% month-to-month in February, half the average pace of the previous six months.

25 Jan. 2016 Will Housing Debt Concerns Resurface at the Bank? (My Publications)

Data this week look set to emphasise that heat is returning to the housing market, again. The Financial Policy Committee--FPC--still has additional tools it could deploy to cool housing demand. But the root cause of surging house prices remains very cheap debt. Alongside the inflation risk posed by the labour market, the case for the MPC to begin to raise interest rates to prevent a widespread debt problem is becoming compelling.

10 Sept. 2015 Wage Cuts Pay off as Periphery Leads EZ Employment Higher (My Publications)

Workers in the euro area remain scarred by the zone's repeated crises, but the strengthening cyclical recovery is slowly starting to spread to the labour market. The unemployment rate fell to a three-year low of 10.9% in July, and employment has edged higher after hitting a low in the middle of 2013. Germany's outperformance is a key story, with employment increasing uninterruptedly since 2009, and the unemployment rate declining to an all-time low of 6.4%. Among the other major economies, the unemployment rate in Spain and Italy remains higher than in France. But employment in Spain has outperformed in the cyclical recovery since 2013.

19 October. 2016 Labour Data to Point to Slower Household Spending Growth Ahead (My Publications)

Today's labour market figures likely will cast doubt over the sustainability of strong growth in household spending. Growth in the three-month average level of employment likely weakened in August, from July's impressive 1.9% year-over-year rate.

20 July. 2016 Job Growth Faded Pre-Referendum, but the Real Hit Lies Ahead (My Publications)

Today's labour market data look set to show that the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate held steady at just 5% in May, unchanged from April's reading.

2 Dec. 2015 Plunging German Unemployment Will Challenge the ECB Next Year (My Publications)

The labour market in the Eurozone continues slowly to improve. The unemployment rate fell to 10.7% in October from 10.8% in September, reaching its lowest level since 2013. The divergence in rates, however, between the major economies remains significant. Unemployment in France, Italy and Spain is still above 10%, but the advance German number continued their record-breaking form in November.

20 Jan. 2016 Wage Growth Will Push the "Data Driven" Governor to Hike this Year (My Publications)

Bank Governor Mark Carney reiterated in a speech yesterday that he wants to see sustained momentum in GDP growth, domestic cost pressures firm and core inflation rise further towards 2%, before raising interest rates. We doubt he will have long to wait on the last two points, given the tightness of the labour market.

20 Apr. Wage Growth is Picking Up, Pressuring the MPC to Act (My Publications)

Today's labour market figures likely will show that wage growth is bouncing back from a soft patch in late 2015. As a result, the MPC won't be able to sit on its hands much longer, especially in light of the continued dire news on productivity.

BBC - Wage growth hit by higher inflation (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest U.K. Labour Market Data

INDEPENDENT - UK pay growth data disappoints again as real wages decline at fastest rate in three years (News and Media)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Labour Market data for May

DAILY TELEGRAPH - US unemployment takes shock tumble to 5.5pc (News and Media)

Ian Shepherdson on strong non-farm payroll numbers for February

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