Pantheon Macroeconomics - Mean-reversion is a wonderful thing; it's what gives the ADP employment report the wholly unjustified appearance of being a useful leading indicator of payroll growth. Over time, the best single forecast of payroll gains or losses in any particular month is whatever happened last month.

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4 Mar. 2015 Mean Reversion Makes ADP Look Like a Leading Indicator - It's Not

By Ian Shepherdson

Mean-reversion is a wonderful thing; it's what gives the ADP employment report the wholly unjustified appearance of being a useful leading indicator of payroll growth. Over time, the best single forecast of payroll gains or losses in any particular month is whatever happened last month.

Posted: 4th Mar 2015 in 'U.S. Documents'

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents | 4 Mar. 2015 Mean Reversion Makes ADP Look Like a Leading Indicator - It's Not

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