Pantheon Macroeconomics - In the September forecasts, the median forecast of FOMC members for the long-term fed funds rate was 3.5%. Their long-term inflation forecast is 2%-- it has to be 2%, otherwise they would be forecasting permanent failure to meet their policy objectives -- implying a real rate of 1.5%. This is well below the long-run average; from 1960 through 2005, the real funds rate--the nominal rate less the rate of increase of the PCE deflator--averaged 2.4%.

Independent • Incisive • Illuminating

Skip to Main Content

20 Oct. 2015 Could the Terminal Funds Rate be Much Higher Than Markets Think?

By Ian Shepherdson

In the September forecasts, the median forecast of FOMC members for the long-term fed funds rate was 3.5%. Their long-term inflation forecast is 2%-- it has to be 2%, otherwise they would be forecasting permanent failure to meet their policy objectives -- implying a real rate of 1.5%. This is well below the long-run average; from 1960 through 2005, the real funds rate--the nominal rate less the rate of increase of the PCE deflator--averaged 2.4%.

Posted: 20th Oct 2015 in 'U.S. Documents'

This document is only available to subscribers of our:
U.S. Economic Research.

Request a complimentary trial(click here) OR Login Here(if you are a subscriber)

Are you taking full advantage of our daily publications?

Pantheon Macroeconomics produce daily publications for U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, UK and Asia, as well as analysis on key data within a few minutes of their release. To activate a complimentary trial on any of these areas, please click here.

U.S. Economic ResearchEurozone Economic ResearchLatin America Economic ResearchUK Economic ResearchAsia Economic Research

« Go back to publications list, or Click here to register for a complimentary trial

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: U.S. Documents | 20 Oct. 2015 Could the Terminal Funds Rate be Much Higher Than Markets Think?

fed, interest rates, markets, fomc, inflation, leverage, recession, gdp, nahb, pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent advice, independent analysis, advisors, advisers, advisor, advice, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, Dr. Ian Shepherdson, Ian Shepherdson, financial market, financial, market, finance