PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, July 2025

Further falls in prices likely needed to get sales moving again.

29 August 2025 US Monitor Preliminary benchmarking to imply 750K fewer jobs created in year to March

• QCEW data up to Q4 2024 imply payrolls have been overestimated substantially; Q1 data will be weak too...
• ...But QCEW data are revised too; the preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision is usually too downbeat.
• The birth-death model has been too generous again; unauthorized workers also will be removed from the data.

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, July 2025

Jump in underlying orders looks unsustainable.

28 August 2025 US Monitor August payrolls likely will maintain the pressure for looser Fed policy

• We look for a mere 75K rise in payrolls, despite the rebound in stock prices and decline in tariff uncertainty.
• Reliable surveys of hiring intentions have remained weak; consumers report worsening job availability.
• A rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in August is likely too, given the latest continuing claims data.