U.S. Document Vault
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Following our note yesterday about upside risks to wage growth and the question of how the Fed will respond, given their sensitivity to labor cost-push inflation risk in the past, we want to address a question raised by readers.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The rate of growth of wages has been the single best guide to Fed policy for many years.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Manufacturing is not in recession, yet, despite the reams of gloomy analysis of the sector, including our own.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The January durable goods numbers, viewed in isolation, were not terrible.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Our default position for core durable goods orders over the next few months is that they will fall, sharply.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The reported rebound in January retail sales was welcome, but the overshoot to consensus was matched, more or less, by the unexpected downward revisions to the December numbers.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The 20K increase in February payrolls is not remotely indicative of the underlying trend, and we see no reason to expect similar numbers over the next few months.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Our below-consensus 125K forecast for today's February payroll number is predicated on two ideas.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We're expecting to learn this morning that productivity rose by a respectable 1.7% in the year to the fourth quarter, the best performance in nearly four years.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The rebound in the ISM non-manufacturing index in February was in line with our forecast, but behind the strong headline, the employment index dropped to an eight-month low.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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