Pantheon Macroeconomics - U.S. Document Vault

U.S. Documents
U.S. Document Vault

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U.S. Publications

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  • Type: Economic Monitor
19 July 2019 Talk of Downside Inflation Risk will be Muted by September

The spike in the May core CPI, and its likely echo in the core PCE, won't stop the Fed easing at the end of this month.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

18 July 2019 Multi-family Construction has Peaked Vacancy Rate to Fall Further

The declines in headline housing starts and building permits in June don't matter; both were depressed by declines in the wildly volatile multi-family components.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

17 July 2019 Consumers Leading the Way, but is Manufacturing Close to a Floor

We have revised up our second quarter consumption forecast to a startling 4.0% in the wake of yesterday's strong June retail sales numbers, which were accompanied by upward revisions to prior data.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

16 July 2019 No End in Sight Yet to the Industrial Consumer Bifurcation

Today's brings the June retail sales and industrial production reports, after which we'll update our second quarter GDP forecast.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

15 July 2019 Early Resolution to the Debt Ceiling would Raise Growth Forecasts

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's five-line letter to House Speaker Pelosi on last Friday--copied to other Congressional leaders--which said that "there is a scenario in which we run out of cash in early September, before Congress reconvenes", introduces a new element of uncertainty to the debt ceiling story.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

12 July 2019 June's Core CPI Makes it Clear that a 50bp Ease is an Unnecessary Risk

Monthly core CPI prints of 0.3% are unusual; June's was the first since January 2018, so it requires investigation.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 July 2019 Only a Run of Very Strong Numbers Now Could Stop the Fed this Month

At least some investors clearly were expecting Fed Chair Powell yesterday to offer a degree of resistance to the idea that a rate cut at the end o f this month is a done deal.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

10 July 2019 Powell to Stick to the Party Line. Will he Mention the Trimmed Mean PCE?

We'd be surprised to see any serious shift in the tone of Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony today compared to the FOMC statement and press conference just three weeks ago.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

9 July 2019 Did the Rising China Tariffs and the Mexico Threat Scare Small Firms?

Small business sentiment and activity, as reported by the NFIB survey, has recovered exactly half the drop triggered by the rollover in stock prices in the fourth quarter. This matters, because most people work at small firms, which are responsible for the vast bulk of net job growth.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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U.S. Document Vault, pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research