Pantheon Macroeconomics - U.S. Document Vault

U.S. Documents
U.S. Document Vault

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U.S. Publications

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  • Type: Economic Monitor
16 Sept 2019 The Economy is Set for a Grinding Slowdown, No Relief Until 2021

We have been quite bullish on U.S. economic growth this year.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

13 Sept 2019 Core Inflation is Set to Breach 21⁄2% by Year-End Breakevens have to Rise

The third straight 0.3% increase in the core CPI-- that hasn't happened since 1995--was ignored by the Treasury market yesterday, which appeared to be focusing its attention on the ECB.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

12 Sept 2019 Core CPI Pressure Building Before the Hit from Consumer Goods' Tariffs

It's pretty easy to dismiss back-to-back 0.3% increases in the core CPI, especially when they follow a run of much smaller gains.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 Sept 2019 Small Firms are Nervous about the Future, but no Meltdown, Yet

The August NFIB survey of activity and sentiment at small businesses was soft, but it could have been worse.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

10 Sept 2019 NFIB Capex Plans and Selling Prices Point to Trouble Ahead

The likely dip in the headline NFIB index of small business sentiment and activity today will tell us that business owners are unhappy and nervous about the potential impact of the latest China tariffs on their sales and profits.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

9 Sept 2019 The Trade War is Hurting Payroll Growth will Slow Further

Payroll growth in September and October probably won't be materially worse than August's meager 96K increase in private jobs.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

6 Sept 2019 Don't be Swayed if August Payrolls Jump a Real Slowdown is Coming

We're nudging up our forecast for today's August payroll number to 180K, in the wake of the ADP report.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

5 Sept 2019 Payroll Growth is Still Good Enough, Just, but Slower Gains Ahead

Labor demand, as measured by an array of business surveys, clearly slowed from the cycle peak, recorded late last year.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

4 Sept 2019 The Manufacturing Rollover Worsens Blame the Trade War

We have argued for some time that much of the early phase of the downturn in global manufacturing was due to the weakening of China's economic cycle, rather than the trade war.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

3 Sept 2019 If China Doesn't Budge as Tariffs Rise, Mr. Trump will Blink, Eventually

After a week--yes, a whole week!--with no significant new developments in the trade war with China--it's worth stepping back and asking a couple of fundamental questions, which might give us some clues as to what will happen over the months ahead.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

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U.S. Document Vault, pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research