U.S. Document Vault
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One of the arguments we hear in favor of an endless Fed pause--in other words, the cyclical tightening is over--is that GDP growth is set to slow markedly this year, to only 2% or so.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The weekly mortgage applications numbers have been wild recently, but our first chart shows that the trend underneath the noise is solid.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The chance of a zero GDP print for the first quarter diminished--but did not die--last week when the president signed a bill granting full back pay to about 300K government workers currently furloughed.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The monthly industrial production numbers are collected and released by the Fed, rather than the BEA, so today's December report will not be delayed by the government shutdown.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The weekly jobless claims numbers tend to be choppy around the turn of the year, and our take on the seasonal adjustments points to a clear increase in today's report, for the week ended January 11, even without the impact of the government shutdown.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The most important retail sales report of the year, for December, won't be published today, unless some overnight miracle means that the government has re-opened.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In our Monitor of January 10, we argued that the market turmoil in Q4 was largely driven by the U.S.- China trade war, and that a resolution--which we expect by the spring, at the latest--would trigger a substantial easing of financial conditions.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The partial government shutdown is now the longest on record, with little chance of a near-term resolution.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The CPI report due today will be released on schedule, because the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the data, remains open during the partial government shutdown.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The latest batch of FOMC speakers yesterday, together with the December minutes--participants said "the committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming"--offered nothing to challenge the idea, now firmly embedded in markets, that the next rate hike will come no sooner than June, if it comes at all.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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