U.S. Document Vault
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We have been asked recently why we rarely talk about the signal from the U.S. money supply numbers, in contrast to the emphasis we give to real M1 growth in our forecasts for economic growth in both the Eurozone and China.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We have been puzzled in recent months by the sudden and substantial divergence between the Redbook chainstore sales numbers and the official data.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Evidence in support of our view that the U.S. industrial slowdown is ending continues to mount, though nothing is yet definitive and the re-escalation of the trade war is a threat of uncertain magnitude to the incipient upturn.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We are not worried about the reported drop in April manufacturing output, which probably will reverse in May.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The gap between the official measure of the rate of growth of core retail sales and the Redbook chainstore sales numbers remains bafflingly huge, but we have no specific reason to expect it to narrow substantially with the release of the April report today.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Markets are caught in a trade loop.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The core CPI inflation rate rose in April to 2.1% from 2.0%, thanks to unfavorable rounding, despite the below consensus 0.14% month-to-month print.... More by Ian Shepherdson
On the face of it, our forecast of higher core inflation by the end of this year is seriously challenged by the recent data.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Core producer price inflation is falling, and it probably has not yet hit bottom.... More by Ian Shepherdson
A steep drop in prices for financial services in January was a key factor behind the sharp slowdown in the rate of increase of the core PCE deflator in the first quarter, relative to the core CPI.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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