Pantheon Macroeconomics - U.S. Document Vault

U.S. Documents
U.S. Document Vault

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U.S. Publications

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  • Type: Economic Monitor
19 March 2019 Lessons from Rapid Wage Gains and Low Inflation in Eastern Europe

Following our note yesterday about upside risks to wage growth and the question of how the Fed will respond, given their sensitivity to labor cost-push inflation risk in the past, we want to address a question raised by readers.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

18 March 2019 Is the Fed set to Abandon its Previous Sensitivity to Wage Growth?

The rate of growth of wages has been the single best guide to Fed policy for many years.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

15 March 2019 Manufacturing Output Likely Rose in February, but the Outlook is Grim

Manufacturing is not in recession, yet, despite the reams of gloomy analysis of the sector, including our own.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

14 March 2019 Business Capex is Under Pressure, Despite January's Rebound in Orders

The January durable goods numbers, viewed in isolation, were not terrible.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

13 March 2019 Durable Goods Orders are Noisy, but the Near-term Outlook is Grim

Our default position for core durable goods orders over the next few months is that they will fall, sharply.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

12 March 2019 Strong January Retail Sales Can't Alone Rescue Q1 Consumption

The reported rebound in January retail sales was welcome, but the overshoot to consensus was matched, more or less, by the unexpected downward revisions to the December numbers.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 March 2019 Labor Demand Slowing, but February Payrolls Overstate the Downshift

The 20K increase in February payrolls is not remotely indicative of the underlying trend, and we see no reason to expect similar numbers over the next few months.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

8 March 2019 Payrolls Constrained by Reversals of Weather and Shutdown Boosts

Our below-consensus 125K forecast for today's February payroll number is predicated on two ideas.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

7 March 2019 Productivity Growth Rose Last Year, but it Probably has Peaked

We're expecting to learn this morning that productivity rose by a respectable 1.7% in the year to the fourth quarter, the best performance in nearly four years.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

6 March 2019 ISM Non-manufacturing Rebound is Welcome Further Gains Unlikely

The rebound in the ISM non-manufacturing index in February was in line with our forecast, but behind the strong headline, the employment index dropped to an eight-month low.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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