U.S. Document Vault
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The spread of the Covid-19 virus remains the key issue for markets, which were deeply unhappy yesterday at reports of new cases in Austria, Spain and Switzerland, all of which appear to be connected to the cluster in northern Italy.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Yesterday's stock market bloodbath stands in contrast to the U.S. economic data, most of which so far show no impact from the Covid-19 outbreak.... More by Ian Shepherdson
While we were out last week, market nervousness over the Covid-19 outbreak intensified, though most key indicators of the spread of the infection continued to improve.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The 0.242% increase in the January core CPI left the year-over-year rate at 2.3% for the third straight month.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The underlying trend in the core CPI is rising by just under 0.2% per month, so that has to be the starting point for our January forecast.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Chair Powell broke no new ground in his semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday, repeating the Fed's new core view that the current stance of policy is "appropriate".... More by Ian Shepherdson
A reader pointed out Friday that the standard measurement of the impact of the weather on January payrolls--the number of people unable to work due to the weather, less the long-term average--likely overstated the boost from the extremely mild temperatures.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The reported 225K jump in payrolls in January was even bigger than we expected, but it is not sustainable. The extraordinarily warm weather last month most obviously boosted job gains in construction, where the 44K increase was the biggest in a year... More by Ian Shepherdson
We raised our forecast for today's January payroll number after the ADP report, to 200K from 160K.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Productivity likely rose by 1.7% last year, the best performance since 2010.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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