U.S. Document Vault
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We have been quite bullish on U.S. economic growth this year.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The third straight 0.3% increase in the core CPI-- that hasn't happened since 1995--was ignored by the Treasury market yesterday, which appeared to be focusing its attention on the ECB.... More by Ian Shepherdson
It's pretty easy to dismiss back-to-back 0.3% increases in the core CPI, especially when they follow a run of much smaller gains.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The August NFIB survey of activity and sentiment at small businesses was soft, but it could have been worse.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The likely dip in the headline NFIB index of small business sentiment and activity today will tell us that business owners are unhappy and nervous about the potential impact of the latest China tariffs on their sales and profits.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Payroll growth in September and October probably won't be materially worse than August's meager 96K increase in private jobs.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We're nudging up our forecast for today's August payroll number to 180K, in the wake of the ADP report.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Labor demand, as measured by an array of business surveys, clearly slowed from the cycle peak, recorded late last year.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We have argued for some time that much of the early phase of the downturn in global manufacturing was due to the weakening of China's economic cycle, rather than the trade war.... More by Ian Shepherdson
After a week--yes, a whole week!--with no significant new developments in the trade war with China--it's worth stepping back and asking a couple of fundamental questions, which might give us some clues as to what will happen over the months ahead.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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