U.S. Document Vault
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The spike in the May core CPI, and its likely echo in the core PCE, won't stop the Fed easing at the end of this month.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The declines in headline housing starts and building permits in June don't matter; both were depressed by declines in the wildly volatile multi-family components.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We have revised up our second quarter consumption forecast to a startling 4.0% in the wake of yesterday's strong June retail sales numbers, which were accompanied by upward revisions to prior data.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Lower Rates are a Mistake Unless the Trade War Intensifies... More by Ian Shepherdson
Today's brings the June retail sales and industrial production reports, after which we'll update our second quarter GDP forecast.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's five-line letter to House Speaker Pelosi on last Friday--copied to other Congressional leaders--which said that "there is a scenario in which we run out of cash in early September, before Congress reconvenes", introduces a new element of uncertainty to the debt ceiling story.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Monthly core CPI prints of 0.3% are unusual; June's was the first since January 2018, so it requires investigation.... More by Ian Shepherdson
At least some investors clearly were expecting Fed Chair Powell yesterday to offer a degree of resistance to the idea that a rate cut at the end o f this month is a done deal.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We'd be surprised to see any serious shift in the tone of Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony today compared to the FOMC statement and press conference just three weeks ago.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Small business sentiment and activity, as reported by the NFIB survey, has recovered exactly half the drop triggered by the rollover in stock prices in the fourth quarter. This matters, because most people work at small firms, which are responsible for the vast bulk of net job growth.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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