Pantheon Macroeconomics - U.S. Document Vault

U.S. Documents
U.S. Document Vault

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U.S. Publications

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  • Type: Economic Monitor
24 January 2019 Slower Growth won't Necessarily Loosen the Labor Market Much

One of the arguments we hear in favor of an endless Fed pause--in other words, the cyclical tightening is over--is that GDP growth is set to slow markedly this year, to only 2% or so.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

23 January 2019 Mortgage Applications Point to Rebounding Home Sales in Q1

The weekly mortgage applications numbers have been wild recently, but our first chart shows that the trend underneath the noise is solid.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

22 January 2019 Q1 GDP will Take a Hit, Despite Back Pay for Government Workers

The chance of a zero GDP print for the first quarter diminished--but did not die--last week when the president signed a bill granting full back pay to about 300K government workers currently furloughed.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

18 January 2019 Manufacturing Output Likely Jumped in December Don't be Deceived

The monthly industrial production numbers are collected and released by the Fed, rather than the BEA, so today's December report will not be delayed by the government shutdown.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

17 January 2019 How Many Government Workers are Making Unemployment Claims

The weekly jobless claims numbers tend to be choppy around the turn of the year, and our take on the seasonal adjustments points to a clear increase in today's report, for the week ended January 11, even without the impact of the government shutdown.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

16 January 2019 If December's Retail Sales Report Could Speak, it Would be Excited

The most important retail sales report of the year, for December, won't be published today, unless some overnight miracle means that the government has re-opened.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

15 January 2019 The Trade War is not the Only Factor Hurting Stocks, but it's the Biggest

In our Monitor of January 10, we argued that the market turmoil in Q4 was largely driven by the U.S.- China trade war, and that a resolution--which we expect by the spring, at the latest--would trigger a substantial easing of financial conditions.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

14 January 2019 The Shutdown is Starting to do Real Damage to Q1 Growth

The partial government shutdown is now the longest on record, with little chance of a near-term resolution.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

11 January 2019 Downside Risk to December's CPI Watch Used Auto Prices Airline Fares

The CPI report due today will be released on schedule, because the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the data, remains open during the partial government shutdown.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

10 January 2019 Fed Doves Sound, Well, Dovish... but don't Ignore the Warning from Evans

The latest batch of FOMC speakers yesterday, together with the December minutes--participants said "the committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming"--offered nothing to challenge the idea, now firmly embedded in markets, that the next rate hike will come no sooner than June, if it comes at all.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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