US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- Headline inflation has hit a three-year high, but we see few signs of increasing underlying pressures.
- The energy shock will lift core goods prices in the coming months, but shelter inflation will cool.
- Slowing wage growth suggests a sustained climb in inflation for core services ex-rent is unlikely.
- The plunge in NFIB hiring intentions in May casts doubt over the recent turnaround in payrolls.
- Capex intentions also are very depressed, suggesting large parts of the economy are struggling.
- May’s jump in existing home sales probably is a false dawn: demand is too weak for a sustained recovery.
- The effective tariff rate has fallen sharply recently and pass-through to consumers likely is now complete.
- The lift to core PCE inflation from tariffs probably will fall to zero by early 2027, from about 0.6pp in April…
- …But the fresh shock from the war with Iran means core inflation will remain elevated this year.
- Household survey data signal a stable labor market, implying a high chance of downward payroll revisions.
- The recent recovery in consumer-facing payrolls is likely to peter out now tax refunds have been spent.
- The AI drag is intensifying gradually; all leading survey indicators of payrolls point to a renewed slowdown.
- The jump in energy prices likely started to lift some core goods prices, but the peak will come in Q3.
- CPI primary rent and OER likely rose only modestly, as the slowdown in new rents feeds through.
- Residual seasonality pollutes the services price data; May data have been consistently soft since 2022.
- Oil output has barely budged in response to the jump in prices, with few signs of an upturn ahead.
- Medium-term futures prices have risen by far less than spot prices, and capital discipline is tighter.
- A slowdown in consumers’ spending looms, as the hit to real incomes from higher gas prices starts to bite.
- The jump in April job openings was driven by a sector where the first estimate usually is revised significantly.
- Other measures of openings have continued to trend down; low quits imply a real wage squeeze is ahead.
- We doubt that the recent acceleration in corporate profits signals a sharp cyclical upswing.
- Weak growth in headline manufacturing output in recent years is hiding a boom in advanced industriess.
- That’s a plus for productivity and US economic leadership, less so for manufacturing employment.
- The construction sector remains mired in recession; data center surge is offsetting little of wider malaise.
Supply chain disruptions providing a temporary boost to activity.
Clearer signs of precautionary stockpilling.
- We look for a 50K increase in May payrolls; the most reliable survey indicators have remained weak.
- After two straight above-consensus readings, pay- rolls surprise to the downside two-thirds of the time.
- The weather-related boost to April payrolls will un- wind; expect a drag from strikes and insolvencies too.
Weak sales likely to prompt a further drop in starts.
Recent increases in consumption look unsustainable.
- Q1 growth in personal consumption was revised down to 1.4%, from 1.6%; April saw a marginal rise.
- Real after-tax income has dropped by 1.1% since April; the saving rate is now effectively at its floor.
- Rising asset prices will help, but sluggish growth in real wages and less fiscal support will limit spending.
Consistent with renewed labor market weakness.
- The increase in asset prices over the past year implies a one percentage point boost to consumption...
- ..A bit less than rules of thumb imply, due to low confidence, already-low saving and high borrowing costs.
- Real incomes probably will rise just 4% year-over-year in Q4, limiting spending growth to 1%%.
Supply chain disruptions adding to price pressures.
Flat trend in permits points to relapse in starts soon.
- GDPNow’s forecast for 4.3% growth in Q2 is based on too little data to take it seriously.
- We look for growth of 1½%, given the weak underlying trend in consumption and non-tech capex.
- The FOMC is more worried about inflation expectations, but they have no bite in a weak labor market.
On hold for now, but the likelihood of easing further ahead in underrated.
