19 December 2025 US Monitor November CPI data strain credulity, but the outlook is tranquil

• Measurement issues depressed November goods prices, airline fares, rent and auto insurance....
• ...We see no evidence of a slowing in the trend in core-core services prices yet.
• But the outlook looks benign; tariffs are now mostly passed through, while wages and rents are slowing.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, December 2025

The implied jump in services inflation makes little sense.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, October 2025

October's strength in control sales looks unlikely to last.

PM Datanote: US Employment, November 2025

Lackluster, but not alarming enough for a January easing.

18 December 2025 US Monitor Is the NFIB survey's signal of rising hiring intentions credible?

• The NFIB survey’s hiring intentions index increased in November to its highest level since May 2023... 
• ...But first estimates of private payrolls have undershot its implied level by 50K on average since Q1.
• The regional Fed surveys and the Census Bureau’s biweekly business survey show weaker hiring plans.

17 December 2025 US Monitor Undesirably high unemployment to remain the Fed's main worry in 2026

• Private payrolls are no longer slowing and the jump in unemployment was mostly due to the shutdown.
• Unemployment ex-temporary layoffs, however, is above its pre-Covid norm, and wider slack is building.
• Some indicators of hiring indicators have improved recently, but layoff plans also have picked up.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, December 2025

Likely a high watermark for now.

PM Datanote: US Empire State Manufacturing Survey, December 2025

Manufacturing capex and hiring likely to remain very weak

16 December 2025 US Monitor November CPI data unlikely to ruin the festive mood

• Core CPI inflation likely fell to 2.9% in November, slightly below consensus, from 3.0% in September.
• Auto prices have remained unaffected by tariffs; increases in other goods prices have slowed.
• The rebound in airline fares probably has petered out; rent increases likely continue to slow gradually. 

15 December 2025 US Monitor November employment report to sustain pressure on the Fed to ease

• We expect a first estimate of a mere 50K rise in November payrolls, despite slightly better surveys...
• ...Retailers have hired relatively few seasonal workers; the upward bias in the first estimate should be mild.
• The unemployment rate likely ticked up to 4.5% in November, from 4.4% in October.

PM Datanote: US Employment Cost Index, Q3 2025

Much weaker wage growth likely lies ahead.

12 December 2025 US Monitor Weak October retail sales likely to set the tone for Q4

• We think retail sales dropped by a hefty 0.7% in October, dragged down by a big fall in auto sales. 
• A raft of indicators suggest that consumers’ spending will grow at a negligible pace in Q4. 
• The Thanksgiving week drop in continuing claims is a seasonal fluke; the trend remains upwards.

11 December 2025 US Monitor Expect a brief skip in the Fed's easing cycle, not a long hiatus

The dots imply three regional Fed presidents who will
vote in 2026 disagreed with this meeting’s easing...

...But we reckon all the permanent voters expect to
ease in 2026; labor data will trigger March action.

Year-over-year growth in the ECI was stable at 3.6%
in Q3, but leading indicators signal a sharp fall soon. 

10 December 2025 US Monitor FOMC likely will signal a Q1 pause, but only tentatively

• Investors already expect a two-meeting hiatus in the easing cycle; the FOMC will not signal a longer wait.
• Recent data surprises have reinforced the case for easing; much more data will be available in January.
• We expect 75bp of easing in 2026, but fiscal policy and FOMC personnel changes cloud the outlook.

9 December 2025 US Monitor Weaker labor demand is more than offsetting the immigration hit

• Immigration has slowed sharply this year, but the labor force likely still is growing, slowly.
• The recent upward creep in unemployment implies labor demand has slowed by more than supply.  
• Higher unemployment will squeeze wage growth and keep the pressure on the FOMC to continue easing.

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending / Michigan Consumer Survey

Soft September sets for stage for more consumer weakness in Q4.

8 December 2025 US Monitor Consumer resilience is ebbing as year-end approaches

• Spending rose by 2.7% in Q3, but the stagnation in September likely foreshadows a very weak Q4.
• Real incomes are barely rising, and many near-real time indicators point to a sharp slowdown in growth.
• Q1 likely will be weak too, but bumper tax refunds and a pick-up in hiring will support a Q2 revival.

5 December 2025 US Monitor FOMC to lower inflation forecasts after September's PCE data

• We look for a 0.22% rise in the September core PCE deflator, which would keep the inflation rate at 2.9%...
• ...This will enable FOMC participants to lower their Q4 forecast, clearing the path for easing policy again.
• Initial claims plunged because seasonal adjustment has gone amiss; labor market slack is still rising.

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, September 2025

Going nowhere fast.

4 December 2025 US Monitor Private payrolls probably holding up better than ADP's data suggest

• ADP’s numbers have considerably understated the initial official estimates of private payrolls this year. 
• Reliable surveys suggest an initial private print of 75K-to-100K in November, still too soft for comfort. 
• A raft of indicators point to consumer weakness in Q4. We think spending will rise by only around ½%.