US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Too unreliable to bank on a labor market upturn.
Labor demand still trending down, implying March payrolls jump was just a blip.
- Oil consumption has risen despite soaring prices; goods producers are preparing for disruptions.
- Surveys point to a bigger rise in core goods prices than implied by the rise in oil prices alone.
- We still look for a further 75bp easing but we now expect the first cut in December, not September.
- Weak JOLTS job openings in March push back against the theory that labor demand is picking up.
- Soft hiring and low quits signal limited second-round inflation risk after the energy shock.
- Mounting pressures on homebuilders suggest residential construction payrolls will start falling again.
Soft sales and high inventory point to price cuts and a drop in housing starts.
- Tech capex is booming, but not all of this spending is AI-related, and much is spent on imports.
- We think the direct boost to GDP growth from AI investment likely is running at only around 0.2pp.
- Consumers’ spending and non-tech investment are weak, and are in need of more policy support.
Prices index likely sending a false alarm.
Growth outside of the tech sector already was anemic ahead of the energy shock.
Spending temporarily supported by tax refunds; stagnation likely in Q2.
Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.
Q1 GDP now on track for sub-2% growth.
- GDP grew by 2.0% in Q1, but underlying momentum was weak even before the energy shock hit in full.
- Consumers’ spending slowed further, while investment outside the tech sector dipped again.
- Core PCE inflation will climb further in the near term, but we expect it to be back below 3% by year-end.
Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.
- Most Committee members stuck to language implying an easing bias, rather than placate the hawks.
- Powell’s decision to stay on means the President must use Miran’s seat to place Warsh on the FOMC.
- We look for Q1 GDP growth of 1.8%, with consumption mediocre and investment lifted by the AI boom.
- Regular gasoline prices hit a 2026 high earlier this week, despite the modest dip in oil prices.
- Spending on fuel and discretionary services is solid for now, but demand usually wilts after a few months.
- The labor market components of the Conference Board survey suggest hiring remains very weak.
- The FOMC statement is unlikely to cite “two-sided” policy risk, despite better labor market data…
- …GDP growth is slow, upside inflation risks have eased, and inflation expectations remain unalarming.
- GDPNow’s Q1 estimate understates the rebound in federal spending, but the underlying picture is weak.
Core services inflation unlikely to accelerate sharply.
- Tax refunds have more than offset the hit from higher gas prices, so far, but this support will fade shortly.
- The BEA’s impartiality faces scrutiny this week when it chooses the PCE deflator input for legal services.
- Tariff costs are down and refund applications are now going in; retailers can hold back raising prices.
- Bank lending to businesses has shot up this year; often this signals faster growth in capex...
- ...But this time the jump in lending likely reflects a tightening of access to private credit.
- The S&P Global PMI probably is overstating the upward pressure on core inflation.
Returning to last year’s average; a further recovery looks unlikely.
