UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- The MPC’s tweaked guidance moves it closer to cutting rates.
- It continues to set sizeable hurdles to the first cut, downplaying weakening wages and inflation.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, but still see risks skewed to a delay until August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slowing inflation will raise MPC confidence in a summer rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Headline CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 0.1pp in February, as base effects unwound.
- Every month that passes without inflation surprising the MPC to the upside brings us closer to a rate cut.
- The MPC’s measure of underlying services inflation is proving sticky, however, keeping it cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The BoE’s Q1 Inflation Attitudes survey is encouraging; long-run expectations are below average.
- A methodology change in 2020 distorted the data though, potentially biasing expectations downwards.
- YouGov’s survey, meanwhile, shows long-term expectations 0.4pp above average.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC will need to cut rates rapidly if the weak Report on Jobs survey is right about pay growth.
- The RoJ reliably shows the direction of pay but is less good at measuring the precise growth rate.
- Other—also reliable—surveys are stronger; pay is slowing, but not as much as the RoJ indicates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the Bernanke review, due in April, to recommend three changes to MPC communication.
- These are: to publish interest rate projections, switch to a staff forecast and make more use of scenarios.
- This will cause volatility, as markets learn about the new communication, likely implemented in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price gains heading to 5% year-over-year soon.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Weaker-than-expected inflation and wages likely raise MPC confidence in a summer rate cut.
- A stronger-than-expected growth rebound suggests some caution still.
- So, we expect no major change to the guidance at the MPC’s meeting on March 21.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strong imports worsen the trade deficit.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: GDp on track for strong rebound in Q1, beating MPC forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP’s 0.2% month-to-month gain in January shows last year’s recession will prove fleeting.
- Stripping out the noise, GDP has been improving since the low point last October.
- We expect GDP to grow 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, beating the MPC’s forecast of 0.1%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Downside wage growth surprise will raise MPC confidence that inflation pressures are fading.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Slowing employment growth shows that the labour market continues to loosen gradually.
- LFS sample problems mean the MPC won’t place much weight on the unemployment rate.
- Softer-than-expected wage growth will give the MPC a little extra confidence in a summer rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think the headline rate of CPI inflation fell to 3.5% in February from 4.0% in January.
- Risks are for a lower reading, as our headline CPI inflation forecast is on the cusp of rounding to 3.4%.
- We expect services inflation to slow to 6.1% in February, from 6.5%, matching the MPC’s forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect household real income to rise 2.2% year-over-year in 2024...
- ...As real wage growth stays strong, and Chancellor Hunt’s tax cuts add 0.8pp.
- A falling saving rate will help too; consumption should rise 0.5% quarter-to-quarter through 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for PAYE employment to rise 30K in February and the unemployment rate to stay at 3.8%.
- We expect a 0.4% month-to-month rise in average weekly earnings ex bonuses...
- ...Leaving year-over-year wage growth on track to exceed the MPC’s Q1 forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Expected interest rate cuts breathe life into house building.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Constrained by economic forecasts, the Chancellor mustered tax cuts of only 0.5% of GDP in 2024/25.
- That boosts GDP 0.2%, and inflation less. Duty freezes lower MPC near-term inflation forecasts 0.2pp.
- This won’t shift the economic needle, or the MPC’s thinking, much. We expect the first rate cut in June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth beating the MPC's forecast, supporting services inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stagnant, but real wage growth and interest rate cuts will help.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
