UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: The underlying trend still looks flat, but a genuine recovery will take hold this year.
Samuel TombsUK
- We expect sterling to continue to appreciate gradually against the dollar, reaching $1.30 by the end of the year.
- Markets’ expectations for Fed rate cuts look well founded, but the MPC will be more cautious than investors expect.
- Public opinion would have to shift dramatically for the election to lead to a sterling-damaging hung parliament.
UK
- The headline rate of CPI inflation likely remained at 3.9% in December, staying 0.7pp below the MPC’s MPR forecast.
- Core goods CPI inflation probably recovered a bit after November’s dip, but services inflation likely edged down.
- A base effect likely reduced accommodation services inflation; no reason to expect an erratic airfares outturn.
Samuel TombsUK
- We look for flat employee numbers in December, a slight deterioration compared to earlier months in 2023...
- ...But October’s fall in AWE will be revised smaller, and public sector pay rises likely boosted AWE in November.
- The slowdown in wage growth likely will still be too mild for the MPC to change its tune at February’s meeting.
Samuel TombsUK
- Business surveys, employment and consumer borrowing data imply GDP is still on a rising trend.
- Output will rebound in many weather-sensitive sectors in November, after October’s bout of heavy rainfall.
- The impact of the fall in Covid booster jabs on health output will be largely offset by a hiatus in strike action.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Still supporting the case for rate cuts, but wage growth likely will remain stronger than it implies.
Samuel TombsUK
- Net migration has jumped over the past two years, following a sharp drop in 2020 and 2021.
- The government estimates that this year’s policy changes will reduce immigration by 25%...
- ...But Skilled Worker visa numbers won’t fall by much, and total arrivals will spike in Q1, before the rules change.
UK
- Growth in money supply remained weak in November, largely due to subdued mortgage lending...
- ...But a recovery should take hold from Q2, as buyer de- mand picks up in response to the falling mortgage rates.
- Consumers probably continue to borrow more to fund consumption, as borrowing costs start to come down.
UK
- Business investment as a share of GDP still was in line with its 2015-to-19 average, despite falling in Q3.
- We think it will fall further in the first half of the year, as firms continue to grapple with high borrow ng costs...
- ...But strong balance sheets and recovering sentiment should prevent a sharp decline.
UK
- In one line: Downturn in manufacturing output has further to run.
UK
- The economy had no momentum last year, partly because households’ saving ratio increased sharply...
- ...But many people have now replenished their savings; others benefited in Q4 from a jump in financial wealth.
- A revival in mortgage lending in 2024 will lower the saving ratio, ensuring spending rises more quickly than RHDI.
Samuel TombsUK
- The economy flirted with recession in 2023, but green shoots emerged towards the end of the year.
- A sharp fall in energy prices suggests CPI inflation will continue to fall quickly, probably touching 2% during Q2.
- Markets' interest rate expectations, however, have fallen too far; we still think the MPC will wait until May.
UK
HOUSE PRICE NADIR IS JUST A COUPLE OF MONTHS AWAY...
- ...FALLING MORTGAGE RATES WILL LEAD TO A 5% RISE IN 2024
Samuel TombsUK
CPI INFLATION TO AVERAGE JUST 2.7% IN 2024...
- ...BUT THE MPC WILL WAIT UNTIL MAY TO CUT BANK RATE
Samuel TombsUK
In one line: A gradual recovery should be sustained next year.
UK
- In one line: The trend in GDP was flat in 2023; expect a material improvement in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- Borrowing in the first eight months of 2023/24 is currently estimated to have topped the OBR's forecast by £6B…
- ...But early borrowing estimates often are revised down, and lower RPI inflation will weigh on interest payments.
- The fall in interest rate expectations suggests Mr. Hunt has scope to cut taxes by about £15B in the Budget.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The consolidation is progressing well enough for modest tax cuts in the Budget.
Samuel TombsUK
- The headline CPI rose at a three-month-on-three-month annualised rate of just 1.8% in November.
- The MPC won’t dismiss this as just noise; its new measure of underlying services inflation has slowed too.
- Stable producer prices and falling energy prices imply the headline rate will hit the 2% target as soon as May.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Sharp decline in inflation not merely due to some of its noisy components.
Samuel TombsUK
