UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- In one line: Consumers and firms look solid in April even if some borrowing was front-running rate hikes.
- We see few signs of changing saving patterns since the Iran war started; households are rejigging assets.
- Strong mortgage approvals and corporate credit flows suggest some front-running of rate hikes.
- But strong April credit growth—after mortgage rates spiked—suggests underlying demand is firm.
- The unwinding of fuel-hoarding likely drove a 0.2% month-to-month fall in GDP growth in April.
- We see risks to our April call in both directions, from better weather and a resident doctors’ strike.
- Downside risks to our forecast for Q2 growth as a whole are building, after the PMI tanked in May.
- In one line: House price inflation to gradually ease over the rest of the year.
- In one line: Manufacturing growth will slow as front-running unwinds, but price pressures are building.
- In one line: Downward revision to 2025/26 borrowing leaves little net news, but higher inflation will boost borrowing in the year ahead.
- In one line: Limited fall in ex-petrol retail sales suggest consumption is slowing rather than collapsing.
- In one line: Early May sample period leaves confidence looking too rosy.
- In one line: Sharp output downturn leaves MPC more likely to hold in July.
- In one line: Inflation scotches a June hike, but most of the downside surprise was in erratic components that will rebound.
- In one line: In one line: Sharp payrolls fall will be revised much stronger, but with wages weakening too the MPC will stay on hold in June.
GROWTH WOBBLES WHILE INFLATION JUMPS...
- …THE MPC WILL HOLD RATES AS LONG AS IT CAN
- The housing market has so far avoided a knee-jerk reaction to the latest energy price shock.
- But rising mortgage rates will limit house prices to 1.0% growth in 2026.
- House price inflation should improve to 3.0% in Q4 2027 as interest rates fall back.
- The insolvency rate remains low, suggesting a resilience to slower GDP growth in H2 2025.
- Higher borrowing costs will hit highly indebted and low-margin sectors of the economy.
- Corporate insolvencies will drift higher in the coming months, but we see few signs of major damage yet.
- Consensus-beating headline GDP growth in Q1 was boosted by a post-Budget rebound in activity.
- We see few reasons, however, to challenge the data on grounds of residual seasonality.
- Rather, tariff front-running, tax changes and pre-Budget uncertainty explain recent growth trends.
- Weak employment data and a sharp drop in the PMI challenge our view that growth was holding up.
- But the PMI over-reacts to uncertainty, the job fall will be revised away, and consumers’ confidence held up.
- Oil prices and Mr. Burnham accepting fiscal rules explain gilt-yield falls; economic data had little effect.
- Increased political uncertainty and high energy costs weighed on business sentiment in May.
- But the PMI overreacts to political noise, and price pressures remain strong.
- We stick to our July rate-hike forecast, but it’s a much closer call as downside risks to growth rise.
- Some frozen government-set prices, a utility-bill cut and the early Easter combined to lower inflation.
- We think that most—not all—of the downside inflation surprise in April, such as in airfares, will unwind.
- Weaker underlying inflation lowers the chance of a rate hike, but surveys still point to a sharp acceleration.
- The sharp fall in payrolls in April looks misleading, as they are far weaker than surveys suggested.
- Payroll revisions remain predictable, and April should eventually show jobs little changed month-to-month.
- Falling jobs and dovish pay growth will keep the MPC on hold in June, but we expect wage gains to improve.
- Betting markets give Sir Keir Starmer only 15% chance of being Prime Minister after September.
- So, rates markets have likely mostly priced in the impact of the Labour Party leadership changing.
- We estimate 10-year yields would rise another 7-to-10bp should Mr. Burnham win a leadership contest.
