Pantheon Macroeconomics - U.K. Document Vault

U.K. Documents
U.K. Document Vault

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U.K. Publications

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  • Type: Economic Monitor
16 Aug 2019 Consumers Aren't Going to Blink as the Brexit Deadline Nears

July's retail sales figures--the first official data for Q3--provided a reassuring signal that consumers can be counted on to drive the economy as the Brexit deadline nears.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

15 Aug 2019 Rising Domestically-Generated Inflation is Tying the MPC's Hands

The unexpected rise in CPI inflation to 2.1% in July--well above the Bank of England's 1.8% forecast and the 1.9% consensus--from 2.0% in June undermines the case for expecting the MPC to cut Bank Rate, in the event that a no-deal Brexit is avoided.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

14 Aug 2019 Labour Market Data Point to Higher Rates if a No-Deal Brexit is Averted

Another month, another strong set of labour market data which undermine the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate, provided a no-deal Brexit is avoided.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

13 Aug 2019 Risks to the Consensus for July CPI Inflation are Skewed to the Downside

We expect July's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, to reveal that CPI inflation dropped to 1.8% in July, from 2.0% in June.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

12 Aug 2019 Q2's GDP Drop is an Inventory-Driven Blip, Growth will Spring Back in Q3

Q2's GDP figures create a terrible first impression, but a closer look suggests that the risk of a recession remains very low.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

9 Aug 2019 Still No Recession Signalled by Financial Market Indicators

Financial markets have gone into another tailspin over the last fortnight, triggered by rising concern about the possibility of a no-deal Brexit and President Trump's threat of further tariffs on Chinese goods.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

8 Aug 2019 June GDP to Reassure that the Economy is Avoiding Recession

Friday's GDP report should show that the economy narrowly avoided contracting in Q2.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

7 Aug 2019 Will Tory Rebels Vote with the Opposition in a No-Confidence Vote?

According to Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, it is "almost inevitable" that Labour will table a no-confidence motion in the government next month, shortly after MPs return from the summer recess on September 3.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

6 Aug 2019 The PMIs Are Consistent With a Fragile--Not Flatlining--Economy

The rise in the Markit/CIPS services PMI to a nine-month high of 51.4 in July, from 50.2 in June, isn't a game-changer, though it does provide some reassurance that the economy isn't on a downward spiral.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

5 Aug 2019 An Election Still Is Too Risky for the Tories, Despite the

The Conservatives are rallying in the opinion polls, as their uncompromising line on leaving the E.U. by October 31, come what may, resonates with Brexit party supporters.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

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