U.K. Document Vault
Sorry, but our website is best viewed on a device with a screen width greater than 320px. You can contact us at: email@example.com.
Below is a full list of our U.K. Publications.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
We doubt there will ever be a fail-safe leading indicator of when a recession is about to hit, but asset prices can help us to assess the risks, at least.... More by Samuel Tombs
We expect May's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May, from 2.1% in April.... More by Samuel Tombs
The MPC will have to issue fresh, dovish guidance in order to satisfy markets on Thursday, which now think the Committee is more likely to cut than raise Bank Rate within the next six months.... More by Samuel Tombs
After the first round of voting by Tory MPs, Boris Johnson remains the clear favourite to be the next Prime Minister.... More by Samuel Tombs
We often hear that the large gap between the slowing rising path for interest rates anticipated by the MPC and the flat profile expected by markets is justified because markets have to price-in all of the downside risks to the economic outlook posed by Brexit.... More by Samuel Tombs
The case for continuing to increase Bank Rate gradually--recently reiterated by MPC members Andy Haldane and Michael Saunders-- strengthened yesterday with the release of April's labour market report, which revealed renewed momentum in wage growth.... More by Samuel Tombs
April's GDP data give a grim firs t impression, though the details provide reassurance that the economy isn't on the cusp of a recession.... More by Samuel Tombs
Interest rate expectations continued to fall sharply last week.... More by Samuel Tombs
April's GDP report, released on Monday, likely will add fuel to the fire of the re cent sharp decline in interest rate expectations.... More by Samuel Tombs
On the face of it, markets' newfound view that the MPC's next move is more likely to be a rate cut than a hike was supported by May's Markit/CIPS PMIs.... More by Samuel Tombs
U.K. Document Vault, pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research