U.K. Document Vault
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On balance, our conviction that the MPC will surprise markets on May 2 by retreating from its dovish stance has risen, following last week's labour and retail sales data.... More by Samuel Tombs
The E.U.'s decision to grant the U.K. a Brexit extension until October 31 does not extinguish the possibility that the MPC will raise Bank Rate before the end of the year.... More by Samuel Tombs
The economy has remained remarkably resilient in the face of intense political uncertainty.... More by Samuel Tombs
Our view that households will continue to spend more in the first half of this year, preventing the economy from slipping into a capex-led recession, was not seriously challenged yesterday by the BRC's Retail Sales Monitor.... More by Samuel Tombs
Economic data have yielded the limelight in recent months to Brexit news and, alas, we doubt that February's GDP data, released on Wednesday, will reclaim investors' attention.... More by Samuel Tombs
The point when businesses and households can breathe a sigh of relief about Brexit looks set to be delayed again this week.... More by Samuel Tombs
We remain optimistic on the scope for sterling to appreciate this year, reflecting our views that a deal for a soft Brexit will be reached soon and that the MPC will resume its tightening cycle later this year.... More by Samuel Tombs
All the main surveys of business activity in Q1 now have been released and they present a uniformly downbeat picture.... More by Samuel Tombs
Once again, MPs failed to coalesce around any way forward for Brexit in the indicative votes process on Monday.... More by Samuel Tombs
On the face of it, British manufacturers are weathering the global slowdown well. The Markit/CIPS PMI jumped to 55.1 in March, from 52.1 in February, and now comfortably exceeds those for the Eurozone, U.S. and Japan.... More by Samuel Tombs
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