Pantheon Macroeconomics - U.K. Document Vault

U.K. Documents
U.K. Document Vault

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U.K. Publications

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  • Type: Economic Monitor
19 June 2019 Market-based Recession Indicators Are Not Flashing Red

We doubt there will ever be a fail-safe leading indicator of when a recession is about to hit, but asset prices can help us to assess the risks, at least.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

18 June 2019 CPI Inflation is Set to Fall Below- Target Again, But Not as Soon as May

We expect May's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May, from 2.1% in April.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

17 June 2019 The MPC Won't Strike the Dovish Tone Markets Want to Hear

The MPC will have to issue fresh, dovish guidance in order to satisfy markets on Thursday, which now think the Committee is more likely to cut than raise Bank Rate within the next six months.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

14 June 2019 Johnson is a Shoo-In For the Final Round, but He'll Face a Soft Brexiteer

After the first round of voting by Tory MPs, Boris Johnson remains the clear favourite to be the next Prime Minister.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

13 June 2019 Fiscal Pledges of PM Contenders Highlight Upside Risks to the Outlook

We often hear that the large gap between the slowing rising path for interest rates anticipated by the MPC and the flat profile expected by markets is justified because markets have to price-in all of the downside risks to the economic outlook posed by Brexit.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

12 June 2019 Rising Wage Growth Bolsters the Case for Gradual Rate Hikes

The case for continuing to increase Bank Rate gradually--recently reiterated by MPC members Andy Haldane and Michael Saunders-- strengthened yesterday with the release of April's labour market report, which revealed renewed momentum in wage growth.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 June 2019 April Data Point to Flat GDP in Q2, But Q3 Will be Much Better

April's GDP data give a grim firs t impression, though the details provide reassurance that the economy isn't on the cusp of a recession.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

10 June 2019 Don't Expect the MPC to Follow in Other Central Banks' Footsteps

Interest rate expectations continued to fall sharply last week.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

7 June 2019 GDP Likely Fell Again in April, But the Pain Will Be All in Manufacturing

April's GDP report, released on Monday, likely will add fuel to the fire of the re cent sharp decline in interest rate expectations.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

6 June 2019 The PMIs Still Aren't Weak Enough to Justify Rate Cut Speculation

On the face of it, markets' newfound view that the MPC's next move is more likely to be a rate cut than a hike was supported by May's Markit/CIPS PMIs.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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U.K. Document Vault, pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research