UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- In one line: Import price growth will jump in the coming months.
- In one line:About half of the February GDP gain was erratic, but that still leaves signs of improving underlying growth as Budget uncertainty eased.
- In one line: Housing market activity will grind down over the course of 2026.
- In one line: Construction sector activity to remain weak in the coming months.
- February GDP exaggerates the growth trend, because of erratic gains in a number of sectors.
- But growth was surprisingly strong even if we strip out the noise; the economy was recovering.
- We now look for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1, and 0.0% in Q2.
- In one line: Surging input prices will worry the MPC.
- In one line: Growth in autos registrations will ease in the coming months.
- In one line: Job market stable in March, but high inflation will weigh on employment in 2026.
- In one line: BRC sales flattered by early Easter in March, growth will slow in April.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February.
- Services inflation should hold at 4.3%, as the early-Easter airfares boost is offset by weaker hotel prices.
- Lower oil prices mean we are close to removing our call for the MPC to hike Bank Rate once this year.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February.
- Rocketing motor-fuel prices account for almost all of the increase in inflation.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 3.5% in September, from 3.7% previously, as oil prices have fallen back.
- Borrowing costs have jumped since our last gilt market update, as the Iran war boosts inflation fears.
- We think yields have overshot fair pricing and will fall, although more so at the short than long end.
- Higher-for-longer oil prices and rising political risk mean the curve will steepen in 2026.
HOUSE PRICES UNCHANGED IN JANUARY...
- ...BUT WAR IN IRAN WILL HIT SENTIMENT HARD IN 2026
- The temporary two-week ceasefire is already under strain, suggesting energy prices will remain high...
- ...and the data-flow since the start of the Iran war has been fractionally hawkish, in our view.
- But the MPC will wait for more clarity before jumping, so we expect a hold in April and a rate hike in June.
- We expect the final payrolls reading to show a 7K month-to-month drop in March.
- A small gain in LFS employment means the unemployment rate will hold steady at 5.2%.
- Wage inflation will drop close to the BoE Staff estimate of ‘inflation-target-consistent’ levels.
- Industrial production likely dropped in February, driven by falls in mining output and energy supply…
- ...But strong services activity will boost output growth, leaving GDP on track to rise by 0.2% in Q1.
- The fragile US-Iran ceasefire reduces the chances of a hike to Bank Rate this year, but uncertainties remain.
- Surging fuel costs and a pullback in spending led to a drop in the March PMI.
- We stick to our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q1, and 0.0% in Q2.
- We expect the MPC to place more weight on rocketing input costs rather than slowing demand.
- The DMP will be a slight relief to rate-setters, as firms’ medium-term inflation expectations were little moved.
- …But we see few signs of a swift end to the conflict in Iran, so energy prices are likely to remain high.
- So, we think the MPC will have to hike Bank Rate once in 2026, in June, before cutting twice in 2027.
- In one line: House price inflation has further to drop as the Iran War dents sentiment and boosts borrowing costs.
- In one line:Retail sales supporting GDP in Q1, but consumers’ spending growth will ease in the coming months.
