UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- In one line: Fiscal worries begin to weigh on consumer spending.
- The labour market report was dovish, as it showed employment falling and wage growth easing sharply.
- Weak jobs all but seal a December Bank Rate cut; we are close to forecasting another in spring 2026…
- …But surveys are stable, and we have doubts about the sharp rise in the unemployment rate.
HOUSE PRICES ROSE IN AUGUST...
- ...BUT THE MARKET WILL REMAIN SUBDUED IN Q4
- We expect GDP to rise by 0.1% in September, boosted by solid retail sales and car registrations.
- Industrial production likely cut 8bp from GDP growth in September as a cyber attack halted autos output.
- Resilient economic activity means the MPC has little scope to cut quickly in 2026, in our view.
- The MPC signalled a December rate cut but uncertainty about how many more.
- We look for 0.2% quarter-to-quarter Q3 GDP growth and stable payrolls, in data published this week.
- CPI inflation should drop to 3.5% in October—due November 19—0.1pp below the MPC’s call.
- In one line: Dovish hold, so we are comfortable with our call for a December cut.
- In one line: Firms brush off Budget uncertainty, and steady growth should keep the MPC on hold.
- In one line: Predictable correction after the strongest September in five years, the underlying trend is up.
- The MPC’s new guidance leaves us comfortable reiterating our call for a December rate cut.
- Rate-setters also point to a slower pace of cuts next year as Bank Rate approaches neutral…
- ...And room for only one more cut after December, unless GDP growth turns out weaker-than-expected.
- In one line: Reopening after the cyber attack boosts the manufacturing PMI, but the outlook remains challenging.
- We expect Budget tax hikes and spending cuts of £40B to deliver double the previous fiscal headroom.
- The devil is in the detail for the MPC, however, which likely needs to wait and see the Budget before acting.
- Firms are brushing off tax speculation; the PMI signals growth close to potential and stabilising jobs.
- We expect ‘final’ payrolls to be unchanged month-to-month in October.
- The bulk of evidence points to employment growth stabilising as the hit from payroll-tax hikes fades.
- Private pay growth should slow further, encouraging MPC doves that they can cut rates in December.
- The insolvency rate has plateaued above pre-pandemic levels but is unthreatening.
- We see little indication that higher insolvency rates will lead to a sharp rise in unemployment.
- Insolvency numbers will fall as businesses adjust to higher interest rates and GDP growth holds firm.
- We retain our Q3 GDP growth forecast of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, as the activity data have held firm...
- ...But softer-than-expected inflation means we have brought forward our call for a rate cut to December.
- We are waiting for further information on the Budget before forecasting an additional cut to Bank Rate.
THE INFLATION OUTLOOK IS IMPROVING...
- …BUT A RETURN SUSTAINABLY TO 2% WILL BE PROTRACTED
- In one line: Rising mortgage approvals and solid credit flows suggest confident consumers.
- Markets need to prepare for major changes to the MPC’s flagship publications, the MPR and minutes…
- …Chief Economist Pill outlined the changes, which amount to downplaying the central forecasts further.
- A manifesto-breaking income-tax hike is more likely, with rumours of a larger OBR productivity downgrade.
- Healthy credit flows imply businesses and consumers remain confident ahead of the Budget…
- …and mortgage approvals rising to a nine-month high suggests the housing market is still solid.
- Rumours of a larger productivity downgrade by the OBR make an income-tax hike more likely.
- We expect the MPC to vote six-to-three to keep Bank Rate on hold at its meeting on November 6.
- The vote is a close call, but we see the MPC teeing up a cut in December with tweaks to guidance.
- The inflation outlook is better but still not great, with plenty of signals warranting caution.
- Solid activity data suggest that fundamental demand in the housing market is holding firm…
- ...but house price inflation remains weak, because of April’s stamp-duty hike and worries about the Budget.
- So, we retain our call for house prices to rise by just 2.5% year-over-year in 2025.
