UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- In one line: Underlying inflation remians sticky, even though headline CPI is set to temporarily slow in the first half of 2026.
- In one line: Enough to allow the MPC to wait until April to cut again.
- Tobacco duty and a jump in airfares drove up CPI inflation to 3.4% in December, a touch above our call.
- We note a few obvious erratic factors, with a January airfares correction likely balanced by solid hotel prices.
- Inflation gives rate-setters little reason to rush to cut next month, but we see a final rate reduction in April.
- Yesterday’s labour-market headlines were dovish, with payrolls falling and wage growth slowing.
- But payrolls look implausibly weak relative to surveys, while job vacancies point to stable labour demand.
- Compositional effects flatter the pay slowing in 2025, while PAYE points to a large AWE jump in December.
- The Reform Party is well ahead in the polls, and Sir Keir Starmer remains deeply unpopular with voters.
- A drubbing for the government at the local elections in May could trigger a Labour leadership challenge.
- Most roads lead to further fiscal U-turns, increasing the risk of looser fiscal policy.
- Last week brought evidence that the economy has rebounded smartly from the annual Budget circus.
- GDP growth is on track to rise 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, 10bp more than the MPC assumed.
- We look for a 25K month-to-month payroll fall in December, and inflation to tick up to 3.3%.
- In one line: Loosening credit availability will help growth and falling secured credit defaults point to limited household distress.
- In one line: The headline trade balance will improve as falls in erratic components unwind.
- In one line:November flattered by unwinding hit to autos, but growth is still on track to beat the MPC's call in Q4.
- In one line: The housing market is primed for a recovery in 2026.
- GDP growth looks set to beat the MPC’s forecast in Q4 2025, after November’s 0.3% gain.
- The recovery in autos manufacturing has little further to run, but underlying activity looks solid to us.
- Construction output is falling rapidly, closing the gap on the PMI and representing a downside risk to GDP.
- We estimate that slowing net immigration since 2023 has cut the payroll run-rate by about 20K per month.
- Net immigration fell sharply to 205K in the year to June 2025, from a 944K peak in March 2023.
- Tighter visa rules, such as higher salary thresholds, have driven much of the immigration slowdown.
- Tobacco-duty hikes and a seasonal boost to travel prices should raise CPI inflation to 3.3% in December.
- We would forecast 3.4% inflation if the CPI collection date were December 16, instead of 9, as we assume.
- Airfares inflation would be 24pp higher than we assume if the CPI were collected on December 16.
- We expect ‘final’ payrolls to fall by 15K month-to-month in December, but hiring will improve in 2026.
- The LFS unemployment rate will drop to 5.0% in November, but that still likely overplays job weakness.
- Wage inflation will moderate in December, but surveys suggest the pace of pay growth is flattening.
- In one line: Few reasons for builders to be more optimistic in 2026, so the construction PMI will remain weak.
- In one line: Job falls ease after the Budget circus ends while inflation remains stick.
- Firms are putting the Budget circus behind them, despite a disappointing headline PMI.
- Surveys of job growth improved in December, and redundancies dropped after a post-Budget surge.
- The DMP shows wage growth and inflation stuck well above target-consistent rates.
HOUSE PRICE INFLATION REMAINED MUTED IN OCTOBER...
- ...BUT ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP OVER THE COURSE OF 2026
- Manufacturing output likely rose in November as auto production recovered after the JLR cyber attack.
- Leading indicators suggest that consumer-facing services were spared the worst of pre-Budget worries.
- Output growth in Q4 2025 will likely run close to the MPC’s forecast and the steer from the PMI.
- In one line: Discounting and post-Budget relief boost autos sales in December, but the trend remains upwards.
