In one line: Revised higher, but still consistent with a technical recession.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - Core PCE Inflation Likely will be Below 2% by End-2024
- EUROZONE- Rapidly Falling Inflation in Early Q1 Will Prompt an ECB Pivot in March
- U.K.- Forecast Review: CPI Inflation to Fall to 2% During Q2, Spurring Rate Cuts
- CHINA+ - China’s Property Sector is Barely Making Progress
- EM ASIA - What 2024 Has in Store, and Where We Could Be Widely Off Base
- LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: The H2 rise in food inflation is finally over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Entering 2024 with negative momentum.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A soft start to the quarter, despite the strong-looking headline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- U.S. - The Fed is Done; Inflation Undershoot will Trigger Easing in Q1
- EUROZONE- ECB Pushes Back Against H1 Rate-Cut Predictions
- U.K. - MPC Likely to Wait Until May to Cut Rates
- CHINA+ - China’s Recovery Makes Glacial Progress in November
- EM ASIA - Indonesian Imports Will Continue to Outperform Exports Next Year
- LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Economic activity is grinding to a halt.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Drop confirmed. Inflation will rebound in December, but what happens in January?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Further recovery should ease recession fears.
Samuel TombsGlobal
In one line: Rapidly falling inflation and recessionary PMIs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Consistent with our call that Germany is in a shallow recession.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: If Mr. Powell is Santa, Ms. Lagarde is the Grinch.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Few signs of a shift in the guidance on rates, yet. QT will accelerate in H2-24.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Continued hawkishness suggests May still is the earliest plausible date for the first rate cut.
Samuel TombsGlobal
- In one line: A 50bp rate cut, as expected.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: A clear dovish shift; rate cuts are next.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: The next move is a cut, and could come as early as Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
