Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: GDP, Switzerland, Q3 2023

In one line: Outperforming the EZ and defying the slump in the surveys.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: EZ Money Supply, EZ, October 2023

In one line: Adjusted for savings money data suggest an improving outlook for H1 next year. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor Leading Indicators Suggest the Euro Should Be Stronger

  • Interest-rate and core-inflation differentials suggest the EUR is currently undervalued against the USD...
  • ...Political uncertainty measures suggest it is right where it should be, at 1.10...
  • On balance, we think EURUSD will trade between 1.10 and 1.15 for most of 2024.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, EZ, September 2023

In one line: No light at the end of the tunnel for industry yet; net trade in goods boosted GDP in Q3.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP & Employment, Eurozone, Q3

In one line: We think GDP will fall again in Q4; surveys suggest robustness in employment growth will not last. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor EZ Stuck in the Doldrums; All Change in Q1?

  • The second estimate of Q3 GDP confirms it fell; we look for another decline in Q4 and a short recession.
  • Investor sentiment data suggest the tide will turn in Q1, in line with our forecast for a rebound in GDP.
  • Indeed, wage data suggest wage growth eased further at the start of Q4, but only marginally.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, September 2023

In one line: Confirming that net exports were a drag on GDP in Q3. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor Revising Down Our Call for EZ Consumption in Q4

  • Retail sales slid in each month in Q3, making it a quarter to forget for the sector.
  • Services spending rose in August, picking up the slack; surveys suggest it won’t do so again in Q4.
  • We are revising down our consumption call for Q4 and therefore now look for a shallow EZ recession.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor Will EZ Joblessness Rise Enough to Depress Wages?

  • The EZ unemployment rate will rise further, but prob- ably not enough to sway ECB hawks...
  • ...Still, we think the Bank will cut rates come March, as inflation likely will fall faster than it expects.
  • Unemployment will rise most in industry, which will stay in recession until global trade recovers.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence