Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Reversing August’s fall; Q4 will be better.
In one line: Sticky, and will remain so until January.
In one line: A minor dip; investor sentiment still signals a solid PMI.
- The ECB is lining up a change in key personnel, but the key transitions are back-loaded to 2027.
- Isabel Schnabel’s departure will almost certainly result in a dovish tilt to the ECB’s communication.
- Investor sentiment has fallen marginally in November but still signals a solid composite PMI.
- A Q4 supply crunch in EZ auto production is averted, but the Nexperia controversy could flare up again.
- EZ auto production fell sharply in Q3, but leading indicators are improving in Germany.
- Auto sales in the EZ slowed in Q3, and leading indicators point to continued sluggish growth in Q4.
In one line: Down but still consistent with faster GDP growth in Q4.
In one line: Exports to the US rebounding; deficit with China widening.
- Swiss GDP is likely to have fallen outright in Q3, as US trade tariffs were hiked and unemployment rose.
- The ECB wage tracker implies EZ wage growth eased in Q3 and will slow further out to mid-2026.
- The ECB is not about to end QT, like the Fed; we expect a continued steady run-off, for now.
In one line: Q4 will be better, we think.
In one line: Terrible, but also a terrible leading indicator.
In one line: Up less in Q3 than Q2.
In one line: Underwhelming, but we see further gains in early Q4.
- EZ retail spending growth slowed to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.8% in Q2….
- ....but overall consumption growth likely was decent, and we look for more of the same in Q4.
- Rebound in German manufacturing was tepid in September, but output likely rose again in October.
In one line: Rock-solid, but momentum is now slowing.
In one line: A rebound, but what happened to output in September?
- German factory orders rebounded in September, but the underlying trend in growth is still flat.
- Sales data signal downside risk to German industrial output, but they failed to capture the August plunge.
- Manufacturing in France is soaring, helped by aerospace, but surveys warn of a fall in early Q4.
HOPES OF A Q4 RATE CUT DRIFTING OUT OF REACH
- …AS GROWTH AND INFLATION OVERSHOOT ECB EXPECTATIONS
- We’re changing our inflation forecast methodology to a pure bottom-up model, based on the four majors.
- We will now be forecasting 38 individual HICP and CPI components every month.
- Our forecast for core inflation to settle above 2% is underpinned by dovish monthly pricing trends.
- Swiss inflation eased to within touching distance of 0%, the bottom of the SNB’s inflation target range.
- We look for further declines, in contrast to the SNB’s forecast for inflation to rise.
- Still, the SNB will hold off from further easing this year and probably also next year.
In one line: In line with our view of Swiss economic weakness.
