Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Households already rattled by energy shock; industry yet to report feeling jittery.
In one line: Solid, before inflation saps real M1 growth.
In one line: Relatively stable, but consistent with downside risk to growth.
In one line: Stung by sharp declines in income, and overall, expectations.
In one line: Services knocked over amid strength in manufacturing.
- German IFO business sentiment sinks as the energy shock hits, denting hopes of a recovery this year.
- We’re lowering our forecast for German investment, but still see decent growth in Q2 and Q3.
- Fiscal stimulus and the net balance between external demand and inventories are tailwinds for growth.
In one line: Consistent with a relatively cautious ECB, for now.
- March PMIs point to a hit to activity in services from the war in Iran, but also upside risk to inflation.
- German industry is benefiting from front-running ahead of supply disruption in the Middle East.
- Inflation data will remain front and centre for the ECB, as the PMIs signal upside risk to core inflation.
In one line: Initial hit from Trump’s war is worse for EZ sentiment than his tariffs.
- EZ interest rate expectations are being thrown around by the news-flow from Iran…
- …Too much tightening is now priced in for 2026; don’t pay rates into the March survey data.
- Tighter ECB policy means a flatter yield curve, similar to when pre-GFC rate hikes began in 2006.
In one line: Net trade in goods on track for a boost to growth in Q1.
In one line: Balanced, until the mic drop at the end.
In one line: From a “good place” to a stagflationary shock.
- EZ governments spent 2.5% of GDP in 2022 and 2023 to offset the hit from rising energy prices.
- Italy and Spain are first out the blocks now, with tax cuts on fuel and electricity to combat higher prices.
- Untargeted fiscal support will make a forceful tightening by the ECB more likely.
In one line: No help to GDP growth from construction in Q1.
In one line: On hold, stronger emphasis on FX intervention.
In one line: The ECB is no longer 'in a good place.'
- Ms. Lagarde struck a balanced tone, and the ECB moved ahead of the curve with its new forecasts…
- …Yet we think policymakers have made up their minds; hikes are coming, unless growth collapses.
- The SNB left rates at 0.0%. It will use FX intervention to target inflation. The bar to negative rates is high.
- EZ inflation is headed for just under 3% by May; the ECB will hike in response, likely in June and July.
- The ECB will justify higher rates by the need to move interest rates to the higher end of neutral.
- History warns against hiking into oil-price shocks, but the ECB will believe it can pull it off, again.
