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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

4 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor All set for a hawkish first 25bp rate cut by the ECB this week

  • The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, but the communication will be hawkish.
  • How does the ECB stay open to further easing without pre-committing to cuts? We’re about to find out.
  • We see little change to the ECB’s near-term inflation forecasts, assuming it is omitting the May HICP.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

May 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

THE FIRST ECB RATE CUT IS COMING...

  • …BUT A JULY CUT IS OUT, AND SEPTEMBER IS AT RISK TOO

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, EZ, May 2024

In one line: Services too hot to handle, but the trend isn’t 4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Italy, 2024

In one line: Domestic demand, including inventories, rose; net exports plunged. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, May/Apr 2024

In one line: The HICP comes in hot; April spending dented by Easter seasonals.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, April 2024

In one line: Disappointing, but don’t write off Q2 consumption just yet.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Services inflation in the EZ as grim as ever midway through Q2

  • EZ services inflation snapped back in May; it will come down eventually, but this will take a while.
  • The ECB will cut its policy rate this week, but hopes of a July cut are now lost; September is at risk too.
  • EZ consumers’ spending, ex-services, fell in April, but this was mainly due to Easter seasonals in food.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ headline inflation likely rose in May, matching the consensus

  • Inflation in the Eurozone likely rose a touch in May, to 2.5%, in line with the consensus.
  • The EZ labour market is in rude health but poses no threat to the slowdown in wages and inflation, yet. 
  • The Swiss economy performed better than initially estimated in Q1, boosted by services.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, May 2024

In one line: Jump in services inflation stands out like a sore thumb.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor German services inflation jumps in May; score one for ECB hawks

  • Services inflation in Germany jumped in May; it will be grist to the mill of ECB hawks urging caution.
  • Money supply growth in the Eurozone accelerated further in April, but lending growth remains slow.
  • German consumer confidence adds to our optimism that a Q2 rebound in consumption is coming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Hopes of an ECB July rate cut will be killed by Germany's May CPI

  • Some ECB policymakers are trying to keep the July rate cut alive; it likely will die this week, all the same.
  • We’re lifting our growth forecasts for France to take into account the boost from the Paris Olympics.
  • The inventory cycle in France will soon turn up, lifting GDP growth, even factoring in declining net exports.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor German GDP growth will slow in Q2, but the recovery is durable

  • German GDP growth was propelled by construction and net exports in Q1; neither will be sustained…
  • …but growth in manufacturing capex is bottoming out and real income growth is accelerating.
  • We think GDP growth will slow in Q2, to 0.1%, as construction investment and net exports fall back.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q1 2024

In one line: Construction and net trade propelled growth in Q1; neither will last.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,