- Philippine inflation is now below the mid-point of the BSP’s target range, bolstering our Q2 cut call.
- The Bank of Thailand will stand pat today, but the MPC’s pessimistic CPI views no longer hold water.
- We’re still waiting on the new weights for Indonesian CPI, but we continue to expect cuts to start in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian GDP growth rebounded slightly to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.9% in Q3, in line with expectations...
- ...But the uptick owes a lot to inventories, which can’t be relied on, with external demand still fragile.
- Private domestic demand ended 2023 softly; we still expect annual growth to slip to 4.8% this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Inventories hide a general slowdown in Indonesian private domestic demand in Q4
Jump in Singaporean vehicle sales in December was unable to offset weakness in other areas
The near-2% consensus for average Thai inflation this year is looking increasingly absurd
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India interim budget for 2024/25, presented last week, sees a smaller—5.1% of GDP—deficit…
- …But consolidation will no longer benefit from post-Covid catch-up growth and high inflation.
- Investment has be en a real priority in recent years, but the problem of underspend is creeping in.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
An encouraging, but most likely temporary, bounce in ASEAN manufacturing
Yet another reassuring below-consensus drop in Indonesian core inflation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The run-up to 2024 was devoid of upward momentum.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Still-lofty growth remains very exposed to a further slowdown.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The Philippines' slowdown resumes, but less dramatically than expected
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines cooled only modestly in Q4 to 5.6%, from 6.0% in Q3...
- ...Trade and government spending were big drags, offset inconsequentially by inventories and noise.
- Fixed investment was the only real bright spot, but this is also benefiting still from the Covid catch-up.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The MAS maintained the appreciative slope of its S$NEER policy band at its January meeting...
- ...As it reiterated the current elevated core inflation outlook, while downplaying growth concerns.
- We see the MAS digging in to rein in core inflation, maintaining the policy band for the rest of 2024.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s partial trade numbers for January point to a sharp monthly correction in two-way flows.
- The absolute retail sales numbers cast a lot of doubt over the supposedly gentle slide in growth.
- Headline inflation is likely to remain sticky in H1, but it should inevitably follow the core rate down.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Ignore the Tet noise, two-way trade started 2024 poorly
Retail sales had an abysmal January, too, leaving aside the rose-tinted headline
Headline stickiness is masking a persistent decline in core inflation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A welcome two-sided improvement, but Thai net trade should hit Q4 GDP
Don’t be fooled by the apparent recovery in Philippine exports
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for January suggest the decline in momentum late last year has run its course.
- Philippine GDP grow th likely slowed to 4.8% in Q4, from 5.9% in Q3; consumption growth is tanking.
- Thai exports were firm in December, but Q4 was largely flat; vice versa for imports, hitting GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
MALAYSIA’S Q4 GDP DISAPPOINTS SUBSTANTIALLY...
- ...INDIA’S ADVANCE ESTIMATE FOR 2023/24 GDP IS FARCICAL
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Banking on the recovery in the electrical and electronics sector.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BNM remained on hold at its January meeting, keeping its policy rate at 3.00%...
- ...Even though core and headline inflation are falling; significant uncertainty surrounds the outlook.
- The pace and strength of the recovery in export growth should determine the BNM’s next move .
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean inflation picked up unexpectedly in December to 3.7%, from 3.6% in November...
- ...As a rise in transport and services inflation offset the impact from continued food disinflation.
- With inflation uncomfortably high, while the growth outlook remains weak, the MAS is likely to hold.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
MAS likely to stay put next week as inflation inches up
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in Malaysia cooled last year, dropping to 2.5%, from 3.4% in 2022...
- ...Helped by fuel deflation in early 2023, while food disinflation gathered strength in Q4.
- The BNM is likely to stay put at tomorrow’s meeting, with inflation below its pre-pandemic average.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
