China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Japan's headline Tankan index improves, but outlook worsens
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The December Politburo meeting statement struck a more confident tone on China’s economy.
- Headline core inflation sank in November, due to food and energy prices, but core inflation was steady.
- November’s producer prices fell m/m for the first time in four months, indicative of excess supply.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Worsening decline in producer prices is symptomatic of excess supply, amid weak demand at home and abroad
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Core inflation indicates steady if sluggish demand, despite worsening headline figure
Worsening decline in producer prices is symptomatic of excess supply
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's revised Q3 GDP reveals weak private consumption demand
Nominal wage growth picked up in October
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s Q3 GDP growth was revise d down, largely due to a lower estimate for private consumption.
- Service exports surprisingly fell over the quarter, suggesting foreign tourism spending has peaked.
- Wage growth improved in October, partly thanks to bonuses; the BoJ is tracking the spring wage talks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s FX reserve jump reflects reduced capital outflow pressure, as the dollar weakens and U.S. yields fall
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's exports have bottomed out but are set for a weak recovery
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- November trade data show Chine se exports have flattened out in recent months.
- Key commodity import volumes continue to grow, except crude oil, which abruptly fell in November.
- Foreign reserves rose sharply in November, thanks to valuation effects and a larger trade surplus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s services PMIs diverged in November, but this is probably a blip in a cooling trend this year.
- The graduate jobs market is likely still weak, if slightly better than last year.
- Consumer confidence has waned since the initial reopening surge in Q1.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo core inflation excluding fresh food is nearing the BoJ target rate
Japan's services PMI indicates slowing growth
China’s Caixin services PMI ticked up
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo consumer inflation fell 0.6pp to 2.6% year- over-year in November...
- ...And core inflation excluding fresh food dipped to 2.3%, close to the BoJ’s 2% target.
- The downward revision to Japan’s final services PMI indicates slowing growth, despite robust tourism.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean trade is weaker than the headline export growth figure suggests
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The erratic Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official gauge
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's erratic Caixin PMI rises
Korean exports are weaker than the headline figure
Japanese manufacturing falters
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK left the policy rate unchanged last week; it raise d its 2024 inflation forecast.
- The Bank is likely to shift its focus to growth support in 2024 but delay the first rate cut until Q3.
- Korean export growth rose in November, largely thanks to base effects; trade is still bottoming out.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's manufacturing PMI is hit by falling demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's manufacturing PMI is hit by falling demand; the BoK keeps rates on hold
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s November manufacturing PMI was hit by fading demand, while output continues to rise.
- But the weakness is mainly in materials processing, despite rising construction activity...
- ...Domestic demand for equipment and high-tech manufacturing is growing.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
