China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- Private firms are turning more optimistic about profits, with good reason, but only in certain sectors...
- ...The AI boom, green energy transition and industrial upgrading are lifting profits for related sectors.
- But Q4 consumer sentiment remained glum, indicating continued sluggish domestic demand this year.
- China’s A-share markets are surging, despite weak private-sector business sentiment and profits…
- …and are likely to continue to benefit from ample liquidity, from retail investors and overseas earnings.
- Regulators would likely intervene, though, if they view the market rise as too fast or overly based on leverage.
- The BoJ held rates on Friday, despite rising bond and currency pressure, linked to fiscal policy worries.
- PM Takaichi should emerge from the February 8 election stronger, allowing her to cut taxes.
- The likely tax cut on food will drag inflation by 1pp in 2026, and can be funded from rising tax revenue.
In one line: Japan's overall exports rise, despite falling shipments to the US
- - CHINA SEES LESS URGENCY TO STABILISE PROPERTY MARKET
- - BOJ WON'T HURRY RATE HIKES, DESPITE SNAP ELECTION
- - BOK LIKELY HOPES TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE RATE CUT
In one line: China’s LPR on hold in January; targeted structural rate cuts unclog credit supply and hopefully induce more loan demand.
In one line: China inflation was firmer in December, but sustained reflation remains challenging
In one line: Bank of Korea drops its easing bias as currency stability takes priority
In one line: Diversification keeps China exports float in 2025; December export upticks largely support by ASEAN & BRICS demand
In one line: China’s PPI sees firmer monthly momentum, but sustained reflation remains challenging
- Chinese policymakers apparently see little prospect of a short-term residential property-market recovery.
- The home provident fund reform is unlikely to boost property demand, barring a huge funding injection.
- Developer credit risk remains high, as home sales income falls and policy support is adjusted.
- Policymakers won’t be flustered by the Q4 GDP growth slippage, hit by flagging investment and consumption.
- They can bank on solid export growth, thanks to burgeoning competitiveness in higher-tech products.
- Quasi-fiscal policy support backed by the policy banks is still coming through; more property support is likely.
In one line: China's Q4 GDP reports torpid domestic demand versus vibrant industrial output
- The Bank of Korea cited excessive KRW volatility as its reason for holding last week, while growth is improving.
- Rising upside risks to growth and inflation, plus FX volatility, are driving a return to a neutral policy stance.
- We still expect a final rate cut in H2, due to uncertainty over global trade policy and the AI cycle.
In one line: Non-government credit demand still sluggish amid structural adjustment
In one line: Non-government credit demand still sluggish amid structural adjustment
- The PBoC yesterday signalled room for policy rate and RRR cuts, while easing via structural policy tools.
- We expect only a token 10bp policy rate cut this year, likely timed to counter shocks, such as to trade policy.
- Private-sector credit growth remained sluggish in December; quasi-fiscal policy is still gaining traction.
- China’s successful diversification kept its exports afloat in 2025, with the amount exported reaching USD3.77T.
- The record trade surplus masks exceptionally weak imports, which reflect feeble domestic demand.
- China’s export strategy will face rising challenges in 2026 as non-US trade protectionism escalates.
- China’s PPI improved on the back of a better supply-demand balance and rising non-ferrous metal prices.
- December’s CPI pick-up was due to transient factors such as food, offset by falling energy prices.
- Sustained reflation momentum will be difficult to maintain as economic fundamentals remain weak.
In one line: China’s FX reserves rise on currency valuation gains as dollar weakens in December
