China+ Datanote: PPI, China, January

Manufactured goods producer price decline stems partly from industrial spare capacity

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 8 February 2024: China's inflation data point to soft demand

China's inflation data point to still-soft domestic demand, after filtering out the holiday noise

Duncan WrigleyChina+

8 February 2024 China+ Monitor China's foreign reserves whiplashed by dollar strength and stock market

• China’s foreign-exchange reserves reversed the rising trend and fell in January, thanks to a valuation effect.
• The favourable external conditions that drove increases in Q4 have taken a breather.
• We expect modest capital inflows in H2, thanks to narrowing interest rate differentials with the US.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 6 February 2024: modest uptick in Japanese wages

Japan's nominal wage growth ticks up slightly in approach to spring talks

Duncan WrigleyChina+

7 February 2024 China+ Monitor Waiting for a meaningful improvement in Japanese wage trends

• Japanese nominal wage growth rose slightly in December but remains well below earlier highs..
• The continued decline in real wages, albeit easing, is dragging down real household spending.
• Disappointing tourism wages raise questions about the hoped-for transition to demand-push inflation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5 February 2024

Caixin services PMI pointing to slower growth, while output prices are falling.

Japan’s service sector rosier than thought.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

6 February 2024 China+ Monitor Caixin services PMI pointing to slower growth, while output prices are falling

• China’s January Caixin services PMI fell short of market expectations and signalled slower growth.
• Output prices fell for the first time in 21 months; firms are facing more market competition.
• Japan’s service industry is expanding faster than expected, but growth is largely based on tourism.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

5 February 2024 China+ Monitor Korea trade en route to a healthy recovery on strong WDA growth

• Korean export grow th remains resilient on a WDA basis, driven by surging microchip exports.
• Shipments to the US are still seeing strong growth, while Chinese demand is recovering.
• The recovery in Korean exports is expected to continue and hinges on the semiconductor upturn.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, January

Caixin index lifted by capital goods output and intermediate product exports 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ WRAP: Caixin PMI still relatively strong; Korean manufacturers buoyed by new product launches, high-end chip exports

Caixin PMI still relatively strong

Korean manufacturers buoyed by new product launches, high-end chip exports

Japan PMI still weak

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, January

In one line: Korea export growth remains resilient even on a WDA basis

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

2 February 2024 China+ Monitor Caixin manufacturing index still outperforming official gauge

• China’s January Caixin manufacturing PMI is still outperforming the official index.
• Rising investment goods output probably anticipates stimulus effects after the Lunar New Year holiday.
• The Caixin services PMI should see a holiday bump, despite consumer caution over costly purchases.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, January

Manufacturing production steams ahead of new orders, as firms restock in anticipation of higher sales

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 31 JANUARY 2024: official PMIs indicate restocking

Official manufacturing PMI indicates restocking
Holiday effect provides modest lift to services activity

Duncan WrigleyChina+

1 February 2024 China+ Monitor Restocking cycle indicates measured optimism over demand outlook

• China’s January official manufacturing PMI points to an encouraging restocking cycle...
• ...Rising output and inventory readings suggest firms expect stimulus to boost domestic demand.
• Targeted funds for property support are arriving, but the recovery will still be protracted.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

30 January 2024 China+ Monitor China's industrial profits continue to improve amid slow economic recovery

• Chinese industrial profits have been recovering on a year-to-date basis since August 2023...
• ...On improvements in profit margins and industrial value-added, as well as easing producer deflation.
• Industrial profits will likely benefit from further stimulus measures slowly trickling through in H1.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Industrial Profits, China, December

China's industrial profits continue to improve in December

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: RRR Cut, China, January

The PBOC's RRR cut is to facilitate fiscal stimulus as the main tool for growth support; Governor hints at LPR cut

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 26 JANUARY 2024

Japan's Tokyo CPI Surprised on the Downside, Coming in Lowest in 22 Months

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

29 January 2024 China+ Monitor BoJ to be unmoved by Friday's lower-than-expected inflation print

• Tokyo CPI declined sharply to a 22-month low in January, driven by softer food and services inflation.
• Core inflation excluding fresh food and energy fell to an elevated 3.1%; signs of sustainable price growth.
• The BoJ is likely to end negative interest rates in April, even if the fundamentals are not ready.

Duncan WrigleyChina+