China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Duncan Wrigley
- Japan’s services sector is expanding at a faster pace; the PMI reports more domestic customers.
- The downturn in manufacturing intensified on demand uncertainty, both at home and abroad.
- The BoJ is likely to exit its negative rate policy in Q2, even if the economic backdrop does not warrant it.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin services PMI offers glimmers of hope
Japanese manufacturing activity is struggling
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Caixin PMI indicated rising service activity in December, in contrast to the depressed official PMI...
- ...But the Caixin PMI has been a better leading indicator of services production recently.
- Consumer services demand is likely to continue to outperform soft consumer goods demand in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Developer funding improved in November, thanks to regulatory support to ensure project completions.
- Home sales continue to fall steeply, but construction activity appears to be bottoming out at a low level.
- A sharp fall in existing-home prices likely indicates a supply surge as investors offload properties.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- - CHINA PRIORITISES RESTRUCTURING OVER GROWTH
- - FALLING INFLATION SHOULD DELAY BOJ TIGHTENING
- - BOK WORRIED ABOUT HIGH HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ stays put as inflation slows and currency pressure eases
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ stays put as inflation slows and currency pressure eases
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ announced no change to its easy policy settings yesterday.
- Falling U.S. yields have eased pressure on the yen, lessening the urgency of a BoJ policy shift.
- The December flash PMIs indicate falling manufacturing demand, but resilient services activity.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- November data show China’s consumption demand stagnating as winter closes in.
- The headline jump in industrial output is misleading, driven by utilities and base effects.
- A sharp fall in existing-home prices likely indicates a supply surge as investors offload proper ties.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japanese manufacturing activity weakens but services activity rises
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's economy treads water in November; steeper existing home price fall points to market clearing
Japanese manufacturing activity weakens but services rise
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s November financing data indicate weak credit demand outside government-bond issuance.
- Home demand is stronger than the headlines suggest, but the supply overhang is bigger too.
- The PBoC is likely to talk up inflationary expectations and provide more assertive liquidity support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The December Central Economic Work Conference confirmed China’s priority is restructuring.
- China should turn to fiscal policy to expand domestic demand, but don’t expect mega-stimulus.
- Regulators are likely to support a broader group of property developers, but no quick fix.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s ebbing money growth is a symptom of soggy credit demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's headline Tankan index improves, but outlook worsens
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The December Politburo meeting statement struck a more confident tone on China’s economy.
- Headline core inflation sank in November, due to food and energy prices, but core inflation was steady.
- November’s producer prices fell m/m for the first time in four months, indicative of excess supply.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Worsening decline in producer prices is symptomatic of excess supply, amid weak demand at home and abroad
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Core inflation indicates steady if sluggish demand, despite worsening headline figure
Worsening decline in producer prices is symptomatic of excess supply
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's revised Q3 GDP reveals weak private consumption demand
Nominal wage growth picked up in October
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s Q3 GDP growth was revise d down, largely due to a lower estimate for private consumption.
- Service exports surprisingly fell over the quarter, suggesting foreign tourism spending has peaked.
- Wage growth improved in October, partly thanks to bonuses; the BoJ is tracking the spring wage talks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
