Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- GDP growth in Thailand fell to 1.5% in Q3, from 1.8% in Q2, missing the consensus for a bounce...
- ...Quarterly growth firmed up, but only because imports hit a wall; the destocking cycle has begun.
- We have cut our GDP outlook and still see a further slowdown in 2024 to 2.2%, from 2.4% this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s benchmark lending rates were unchanged in November, in line with the MLF rate last week.
- Policymakers are seemingly using fiscal stimulus to stabilise growth, thus allowing confidence to rebuild.
- Monetary policy will probably continue to play an accommodative role—behind fiscal policy—in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- On Thursday, Ofgem will likely announce that consumer electricity and natural gas prices will rise modestly in Q1.
- Businesses have essentially finished passing on higher energy costs to customers...
- ...Many have locked in high wholesale prices but can still slow the rate of price rises over the coming months.
Samuel TombsUK
- Today’s negotiated wage figures likely will show that wage growth eased in Q3, but only marginally.
- Construction output edged up in September; survey data suggest this was reversed in October...
- ...We think the sector will be a drag on growth again in Q4; luckily it accounts for only 5% of EZ GDP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- China’s residential market flagged again in October, despite the new homebuyer incentives since August.
- Developer funding shows little sign of turning around, as worries over debt issues are prevailing.
- The reported affordable-housing programme likely will fall short of the shantytown redevelopment boost.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China's lending rates on hold as fiscal policy takes the leading role
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China's lending rates on hold as fiscal policy takes the leading role
Duncan WrigleyChina+
A massive, but perverse, net trade boost saves Thai Q3 GDP from a complete car crash
Export growth in Malaysia jumps even, as it remains flat in nominal terms
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The recovery in construction activity is stalling, for now.
US
In one line: The path to a March rate cut remains clear, to us.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The path to a March rate cut remains clear, to us.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Solid, but the headline likely will roll over soon.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: We expect a recovery in the coming months, driven by a rebound in real incomes.
UK
Momentum in Singaporean exports builds, supported by base effects
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Colombia’s economy dodged a technical recession in Q3, but growth prospects remain gloomy.
- Elevated political uncertainty and stiflingly high interest rates continue to drag down investment.
- Conditions likely will improve in Q1, as BanRep starts to ease rates, but Petro’s policy will remain a threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The supply-side factors we wanted to see in order to push inflation back down have all now normalized…
- Excess demand is the last piece of the jigsaw; the lagged hit from the Fed’s hike will take care of it.
- As demand moderates, gross margins will fall, pushing inflation back to target, and perhaps below it.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Singaporean export growth continued to recover in October, albeit boosted by friendly base effects...
- …The improvement in nominal terms appears more modest, as external demand remains weak.
- Overall, though, trade should provide a larger boost to Q4 GDP, on the back of this improvement.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in the EZ is falling quickly, and the threat from a rebound in energy inflation is receding.
- Core inflation remains on track to undershoot the ECB’s September forecasts, especially in Q1.
- Sticky wages is a risk to our call for easing early next year, but the path to a March cut is still clear.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Retail sales fell for the second straight month in October, though that partly reflected the warmer, wetter weather.
- But real incomes look set to recover, as pay growth outstrips CPI inflation and cost-of-living grants resume.
- Some of this extra cash will be saved, but people will be able to spend more too; retail sales will recover in Q4.
Samuel TombsUK
Likely to improve from here, but only very slowly.
US