In one line: Services confidence is holding up; employment expectations fell further.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Households remain focussed on repaying debt and replenishing their savings, but we doubt they will become even more cautious ahead.
Samuel TombsUK
In one line: Better for consumers and manufacturing, but service confidence fell further.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Vietnam’s export recovery remains intact, heading into 2024
The contradictory headline rates aside, retail sales growth is clearly regaining momentum
No power price pop to see in November CPI
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The October PCE data likely will confirm that core disinflation continues, but still has a way to go.
- Spending growth appears to have moderated, though one softer month proves nothing.
- Jobless claims likely rebounded last week, though the Thanksgiving seasonals are tricky.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The BoT finally hit pause yesterday after eight straight hikes, leaving the policy rate, at 2.50%...
- ...We continue to expect 50bp of easing next year; the Bank is behind the curve on GDP and CPI.
- Vietnam’s growth recovery is becoming more broad-based; we now expect Q4 GDP of 5.4%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- October’s industrial profit recovery was slower than expected, due to base effects and rising costs.
- Fading reflation impetus from producer prices also contributed; manufacturing sector profits improved.
- While October’s data is more upbeat than the year- over-year data implies, the recovery remains bumpy.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Households made another net repayment of mortgage debt in October; expect more of the same this winter.
- September’s rise in the household saving rate was sustained in October, but we don’t expect a further increase.
- Many households have now regained the savings buffer they lost in 2022; unsecured borrowing has scope to rise.
Samuel TombsUK
- Inflation in Germany and Spain undershot consensus in November; will EZ HICP do the same?
- German inflation will snap back in December due to base effects in energy; the core is falling rapidly.
- Core inflation in Spain declined sharply in November, and the downturn has further to run.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
PUBLIC SPENDING CAN’T RESCUE THE PH LONG TERM
- ...Q3 GDP AND OCTOBER CPI MAKE THE BOT LOOK FOOLISH
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
THE EZ ECONOMY IS SLIPPING INTO RECESSION...
- ...WHEN WILL THE ECB’S MESSAGE SHIFT?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Adjusted for savings money data suggest an improving outlook for H1 next year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Solid headline, but unemployment fears are rising.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Depressed, despite an improving outlook for real income growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Treat everything you read about holiday spending with great skepticism; reliable data don’t exist.
- Even the official retail sales numbers can’t be trusted until after at least one round of revisions.
- The trade deficit was wild during and immediately after Covid, but it’s much calmer now.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s disinflation is fully on track as economic activity loses momentum.
- This, coupled with benign external conditions, will allow BCB to accelerate the pace of policy easing.
- Peru’s economy has been able to dodge a technical recession this year, but high real rates are a threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The OBR expects growth in output per hour of 1.0% y/y over the next five years, above the 2010s average, 0.7%...
- ...But it has averaged 0.5% since 2019, and that assumes employment has risen as slowly as the LFS implies.
- Productivity in the manufacturing sector will eventually snap back, but a wider acceleration isn’t likely.
Samuel TombsUK
- Money supply is not falling as fast as it was earlier in the year, but it is still declining...
- ...Lending growth, meanwhile, is fading, which bodes ill for our call for a rebound in GDP in H1 2024.
- The package holiday CPI can be volatile in November; risks are tilted to the downside this week.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
