Korean 20-day exports accelerate on the back of base effects and lumpy shipments of hi-tech vessels and semiconductors
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Korean 20-day exports accelerate on the back of base effects and lumpy shipments of hi-tech vessels and semiconductors
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The latest WARN data suggest layoffs remain low, but seasonals will lift initial claims in the next few weeks…
- …And rising continuing claims suggest people who lose their jobs are taking longer to find new positions.
- The jump in December confidence tells us that people like cheaper gas and rising stocks; who knew?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico — Political noise on the increase
- Chile — Certainty after the constitutional vote?
- Peru — Calm for now
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The PBoC kept one-and five-year LPRs steady in December, after standing pat on MLF rates earlier.
- Japan’s exports dipped back into negative growth in November following two months of expansion.
- Exports to the US and EU slowed significantly, while car exports continue to grow, albeit less strongly.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- German consumer confidence is on the rise but risks to our consumption call remain to the downside.
- The EZ current account surplus climbed in October; the trend in the euro suggests it will decline soon.
- EZ construction started Q4 on a rough note, and all signs point to the struggle stretching into 2024.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
People really like a rising stock market and falling gas prices
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: Further increases likely over the coming months.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Beginning to turn the corner, but the recovery will be slow.
US
In one line: The start of a more sustained climb?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China keeps lending rates steady; Japan's exports shrink for the first time in 3 months
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The start of a more sustained climb?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- U.S. - The Fed is Done; Inflation Undershoot will Trigger Easing in Q1
- EUROZONE- ECB Pushes Back Against H1 Rate-Cut Predictions
- U.K. - MPC Likely to Wait Until May to Cut Rates
- CHINA+ - China’s Recovery Makes Glacial Progress in November
- EM ASIA - Indonesian Imports Will Continue to Outperform Exports Next Year
- LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Probably an overshoot, but a steady increase in single-family starts lies ahead.
US
