In one line: The core should fall a bit further over the summer, but 2% is likely the new trend.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Slowing jobs growth keeps MPC rate cut on track , despite strong wage growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A poorer start to Q2 than suggested by the already-soft headline rates.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
A poorer start to Q2 for Indonesian trade than suggested by the already-soft headlines
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The PBoC leaves the MLF rate unchanged, despite the April credit data dip
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The PBoC leaves the MLF rate unchanged, despite the April credit data dip
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Underlying services inflation slowed in April; momentum in rents and auto insurance prices will fade.
- The CPI and PPI data suggest the core PCE deflator rose by 0.23%, the smallest increase since December.
- April's retail sales report supports the case for a slowdown in consumption growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Indonesian export growth rose back up above zero in April for the first time in 11 months, to 1.7%…
- …But this was mostly thanks to favourable technicalities; exports are still broadly stagnating.
- A durable return to positive growth should ensue in H2, in large part due to commodity prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Eurozone rebounded at the start of 2024, matching the initial estimate.
- A fall in German construction will weigh on EZ growth in Q2, but the overall upturn will continue.
- EZ employment growth slowed in Q1, but surveys suggest the worst is now over.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We see the MPC continuing quantitative tightening at its current £100B-per-year pace in 2024/25.
- The MPC has said explicitly that it does not see rate cuts and QT as contradictory.
- Reserves will not reach ‘equilibrium’ until 2026, even with QT at a £100B-per-year pace.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
An improvement, but small businesses are still under pressure.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Falling energy prices improve trade deficit.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A 13-month high, as upstream deflationary forces wane.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Soft, but beware the risk of a snap-back in services inflation in May.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Will the Q1 strength in Indonesian sales carry over to Q2?
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We are merely nudging up our forecast for the April core CPI to 0.37%, from 0.35%, following the PPI data.
- Short-term movements in many equivalent PPI and CPI components are weakly correlated.
- We also look today for a 0.4% rise in total retail sales, consistent with near-zero real consumption growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Peru’s BCRP cut the policy rate by 25bp to 5.75% and delivered a dovish shift in the inflation outlook.
- Further easing will depend on inflation dynamics and its determinants; US Fed policy will also play a role.
- Inflation in Chile surprised to the upside in April, which will force the BCCh to act with more caution.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in India continued to slip trivially in April, but we see some positive underlying trends in food.
- The RBI has a narrow window to start easing in Q3, with the room allowed by low core CPI set to vanish.
- Indonesian retail sales saw a promising Q1 revival, but hold judgement until Ramadan effects wane.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
