Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 April 2024

China consumer prices slow as producer deflation deepens

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, March

In one line: Producer price deflation deepens further, thanks to excess capacity

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

12 April 2024 China+ Monitor China's latest inflation prints underscore weak domestic demand

  • China’s inflation data point to lacklustre domestic demand post-New Year, while supply rose.
  • Core CPI dropped sharply to half its long-run average; industry is still facing deflationary pressure.
  • The US economy is steaming ahead, giving the PBoC
    a dilemma: lower rates or keep RMB stable.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, March

In one line:  China forex reserves rose more than expected in March, thanks to stronger trade surplus and bond inflows.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

5 April 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's Tankan survey points to still-tepid manufacturing activity

  • Japan’s Tankan for large manufacturers deteriorated for the first time in a year.
  • The silver lining is optimism for the non-manufacturing sector, storming to its highest since 1991.
  • Nothing in the survey will surprise the BoJ, and we expect interest rates to reach 0.20% by end-2024.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, March

In one line: Japan’s Tokyo inflation ticks up in March, thanks to a smaller fall in energy prices

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, March

In one line: Manufacturing activity expands for the first time in 6 months 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

2 April 2024 China+ Monitor China's residential property market still festering; no big policy shift yet

  • Chinese officials are downplaying the risks linked to the continued struggles of the property sector.
  • But the new-housing market showed little sign of reviving in the first two months of 2024.
  • Piecemeal policy support is unlikely to bring about a near-term recovery in new-home sales.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 March 2024

China’s industrial profits bounce in February, owing to base effects

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: LPR, China, March

In one line: China lending rates unchanged in March as per market consensus

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

28 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's industrial profits surge on base effects; awaiting spending boost

  • China’s industrial profits soared, on the low base last year when the country emerged from zero-Covid.
  • Capital equipment and consumption goods manufacturing make up most of the profit improvement.
  • We expect a firmer recovery after the implementation of the action plans to upgrade consumption.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: BoJ decisions, Japan, March

In one line: The BoJ scraps negative rates and YCC policies in March, hinting at no further tightening unless inflation spikes.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19 March 2024

In one line: The BoJ scraps negative rates and YCC policies in March, hinting at no further tightening unless inflation spikes.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

20 March 2024 China+ Monitor BoJ marches towards normalisation, scrapping negative rates and YCC

  • The BoJ raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, while ending YCC and risky asset purchases.
  • At the press conference, Governor Ueda’s rhetoric on the future path of the policy rate was neutral.
  • Japan’s monetary policy should stay accommodative unless significant inflationary pressures mount.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: MLF rate, China, March

PBoC stands pat on MLF rate; draining cash from banking system first time since end 2022.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 March 2024

PBoC stands pat on MLF rate; draining cash from banking system first time since end 2022

China’s property market rout continues, with prices falling further in February

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 March 2024

In one line: China’s consumer price inflation bounces in February; Upstream industries continue to see disinflationary pressure

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, February

In one line: China’s upstream industries continue to see disinflationary pressure.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: CPI, China, February

In one line: China’s consumer price inflation bounces in February, thanks to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, February

In one line:  Investors return to China’s stock markets in February

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

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