Pantheon Publications

22 April 2024 China+ Monitor China's residential property sector still ailing despite funding support

• The steep decline in China’s new residential sales eased only a tiny bit in March.
• Developer funding is still under severe pressure; the 6,000-project whitelist offers limited help, so far.
• China’s residential sector faces a grinding recovery, despite flickers of life in Shanghai’s luxury market.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

17 April 2024 China+ Monitor Chinese GDP growth rises in Q1, but output is outpacing demand

• China’s Q1 GDP growth picked up, thanks to robust industrial output and consumer services spending.
• But a marked fall in industrial capacity utilisation points to burgeoning oversupply issues...
• …Fiscal stimulus should boost demand to mitigate the oversupply, eventually; meanwhile, PPI deflation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 April 2024: Chinese GDP beats expectations

Chinese GDP beats expectations, despite an uneven recovery and looming oversupply issues

Duncan WrigleyChina+

16 April 2024 China+ Monitor PBoC holds the MLF rate steady, despite lacklustre domestic demand

• The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged yesterday, likely wary of currency pressure.
• Social financing growth slowed in March, due to soft domestic demand and lower bond issuance.
• Government-bond issuance is likely to pick up in Q2, the key plank of short-term growth support.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: MLF Rate, China, April

The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold, despite slowing credit growth

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 April 2024: MLF rate unchanged

The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold, despite slowing credit growth

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, March

Disappointing credit data point to undercooked domestic demand, despite fiscal stimulus 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

15 April 2024 China+ Monitor China begins to flesh out its consumer goods trade-in plan

• China’s marked fall in exports in March highlights the need to boost domestic demand.
• After factoring out base effects and seasonality, exports are probably enjoying a modest rebound.
• The equipment & consumer goods trade -in schemes should be significant, despite slow policymaking.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

11 April 2024 China+ Monitor China's uneven recovery set to make only halting progress

• China’s GDP growth should increase slightly in Q1 quarter-to-quarter, but severe imbalances persist.
• A robust industrial sector contrasts with plunging new-property sales and flat consumption activity.
• Policy support for consumer goods trade-ins and equipment upgrades should be incrementally helpful.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 8 April 2024: Japan's broad wage growth still lacklustre

Japan's broad wage growth still lacklustre

Duncan WrigleyChina+

8 April 2024 China+ Monitor BoK likely to sit tight until Q3, mindful of rising cost pressures

• The BoK will probably hold the policy rate steady on Friday, amid stubborn inflation and KRW pressure.
• The March manufacturing PMI points to sluggish domestic demand but rising cost pressures.
• Exports are riding a firming rebound, thanks to high-end- chip demand related to AI.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3 April 2024: PMIs point to services buoyancy in China & Japan

PMIs point to services sector buoyancy in China and Japan

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, March

Chinese manufacturing demand improves after the Lunar New Year holiday 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, March

Korean exports propelled by resurgent semiconductor shipments

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2 April 2024: Post-holiday bump in Caixin and Korean PMIs

Post-holiday improvement in Caixin, Korean PMIs; Japanese Tankan fades; Korean exports sustain recovery trend

Duncan WrigleyChina+

3 April 2024 China+ Monitor Hopeful signs of a gradually broadening recovery in China

• China’s March official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs were both above 50 for the first time since September.
• A strong industrial sector is generating demand for business services too.
• But the lacklustre labour market and dismal property sector will limit the speed of China’s recovery.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

March 2024 - China+ Chartbook

CHINA+ OUTLOOK

- CHINA’S TWO SESSIONS OFFER ONLY TARGETED STIMULUS
- BOJ EXITS FROM NEGATIVE RATES; NO NEAR-TERM MOVES
- DEMAND FOR HIGH-END CHIPS LIFTS KOREAN EXPORTS

Duncan WrigleyChina+

27 March 2024 China+ Monitor FDI into China has weathered the storm, but the waters are still choppy

• China’s foreign direct investment seems to have passed its lowest point, hit in late 2023.
• Top policymakers are rolling out the red carpet to tempt foreign CEOs back to China, as it recovers.
• But geopolitical tensions will limit the foreign investment rebound, especially in high-tech sectors.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

25 March 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's wage-price spiral still in its infancy; BoJ admits it moved early

• Japan’s much-heralded wage-price spiral is likely a way off, despite the end of the negative rate policy.
• Household spending dived in January, while consumer inflation is on a cooling trend.
• A PBoC deputy governor on Thursday was relaxed about slowing credit and broad money growth.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Flash manufacturing PMI, Japan, March

Modest improvement in still-dull Japanese manufacturing activity reading

Duncan WrigleyChina+